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At least 91 records · Page 5

Variability Timescale and Spectral Index of Sgr A* in the Near Infrared: Approximate Bayesian Computation Analysis of the Variability of the Closest Supermassive Black Hole

Sagittarius A* (Sgr A* ) is the variable radio, near-infrared (NIR), and X-ray source associated with accretion onto the Galactic center black hole. We present an analysis of the most comprehensive NIR variability data set of Sgr A* to date: eight 24 hr epochs of continuous monitoring of Sgr A* at 4.5 μm with the IRAC instrument on the Spitzer Space Telescope, 93 epochs of 2.18 μm data from Naos Conica at the Very Large Telescope, and 30 epochs of 2.12 μm data from the NIRC2 camera at the Keck Observatory, in total 94,929 measurements. A new approximate Bayesian computation method for fitting the first-order structure function extracts information beyond current fast Fourier transformation (FFT) methods of power spectral density (PSD) estimation. With a combined fit of the data of all three observatories, the characteristic coherence timescale of Sgr A* is b 243 57 82 t = - + minutes (90% credible interval). The PSD has no detectable features on timescales down to 8.5 minutes (95% credible level), which is the ISCO orbital frequency for a dimensionless spin parameter a = 0.92. One light curve measured simultaneously at 2.12 and 4.5 μm during a low flux-density phase gave a spectral index αs = 1.6 ± 0.1 (F µ n s n -a ). This value implies that the Sgr A* NIR color becomes bluer during higher flux-density phases. The probability densities of flux densities of the combined data sets are best fit by log-normal distributions. Based on these distributions, the Sgr A* spectral energy distribution is consistent with synchrotron radiation from a nonthermal electron population from below 20 GHz through the NIR.

accretion↗

Ground Validation of TRMM 3B43 V7 Precipitation Estimates Over Colombia. Part I: Monthly and Seasonal Timescales

In this study, we validate precipitation estimates remotely sensed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) at monthly and seasonal timescales, during the period 1998–2015, by calculating and analyzing diverse error metrics between the 3B43 V7 product and in situ measurements from 1,180 rain gauges over Colombia, of which at least 987 are fully independent of TRMM. We explore the existence of spatiotemporal patterns to assess the performance of 3B43 V7 over the five major natural regions of Colombia: Caribbean, Pacific, Andes, Orinoco and Amazon. The results show that 3B43 V7 product is able to capture the phase of the annual cycle of monthly mean precipitation, but the performance is not good for the amplitude, in particular over the Andes and Pacific regions owing to complex climatic and topographic conditions. In general, 3B43 V7 exhibits good performance in the low‐lying and plain Amazon, Orinoco and Caribbean regions. Over the Andes region, characterized by complex topography, overestimation errors are identified [root mean squared error (RMSE) ≥83.59 mm·month−1 and relative bias (BIAS) ≥4.69%], whereas the extremely wet rainfall regime of the Pacific region is largely underestimated (RMSE ≥253.52 mm ·month−1 and BIAS ≤−11.75%). These errors are greater during the wet seasons when the metrics reach worse scores than those reported in similar studies worldwide. Occurrence analyses showed that 3B43 V7 misses very frequent light rainfall events and less frequent but very heavy storms, which contribute to the overall underestimation (overestimation) observed over the Pacific (Andes) region. The error characteristics identified and quantified in this study confirm the well‐documented limitations of remote precipitation sensing and constitute a warning about major challenges that complex climatic and physiographic features can impose on satellite rainfall missions.

Columbia↗

Providing Ancillary Services with Photovoltaic Generation in Multi- Timescale Grid Operation

With penetration levels of photovoltaic (PV) generation substantially increasing, electric power systems need more flexible resources that can provide ancillary services to mitigate the variability and uncertainty of the PV. On one hand, the increase in PV generation necessitates more flexible resources; on the other hand, because of its low operation cost, PV generation has been replacing conventional generation, which is currently the main flexible resource. Consequently, there is a trend to require renewable generation, including PV, to provide flexible ancillary services. This paper proposes a multi-timescale grid operation model considering the various control strategies of PV providing different ancillary services. Numerical case studies demonstrate that with PV providing both regulation reserve and primary frequency reserve, the system operating costs and PV curtailment will be reduced significantly. Results show that not only the system reliability can be improved but also PV profitability with PV providing more ancillary services.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Providing Ancillary Services with Photovoltaic Generation in Multi-Timescale Grid Operation: Preprint

With photovoltaic (PV) generation substantially increases, electric power systems need more flexible resources that can provide ancillary services to mitigate the variability and uncertainty of the PV generation. On the one hand, the increase of PV generation necessitates the needs of more flexible resources. On the other hand, PV generation, because of its low operation cost, has been replacing the conventional generation in the system which is the main flexible resources in the current system. Consequently, there is a trend to require the renewable generation including PV to provide flexible ancillary services to further accommodate more PV integration. This paper proposes a multi-timescale grid operation model considering the various control strategies of PV providing different ancillary services. Numerical case studies demonstrate that with PV providing both regulation reserve and primary frequency reserve, the system operating costs and PV curtailment will be reduced significantly. It shows that not only the system reliability but also PV's profitability can be improved with PV providing more ancillary services.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

Optimizing district energy systems by integrating Borehole Thermal Energy Storage Using a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming g-function framework with a Multi-Timescale Rolling Horizon method

Shallow geothermal has gained increasing attention in recent years; however, a reliable framework for its accurate incorporation into large-scale energy system optimization remains lacking. This study proposes a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) framework combined with the g-function approach to integrate Borehole Thermal Energy Storage (BTES) technology into energy system optimization. Validation against a Modelica-based reservoir network simulation demonstrates that the proposed framework effectively captures the ground thermal response under varying energy loads and accurately estimates the borefield energy supply. To enhance scalability, a Rolling Horizon with Multi-Timescale (RH-MTS) method is further introduced, reducing computational time by 73 % for the 1-year optimization model with only minor loss of optimality. The framework is demonstrated through the case study of the UC Berkeley campus. Results indicate that BTES is a cost-effective and low-carbon solution: two borefields comprising 382 boreholes can meet 8.0 % and 6.6 % of the total campus heating and cooling demand, respectively, at an average energy rate of 0.70–0.77 USD/kWh and carbon intensity of 0.54 kg-CO2/kWh. Short-term analysis reveals a 35%–65% decline in BTES energy flow after 3–6 months of continuous heating/cooling operation, while long-term simulation shows that annual energy production of BTES can vary by up to 12.0 % after four years before stabilizing. Overall, this study develops a novel optimization framework that couples physics-based g-function method with MILP optimization framework, thereby advancing methodological development for shallow-geothermal integration and providing actionable guidance for BTES deployment in district-energy systems.

Yang, Jiahui↗

Investigating preservation of stable isotope ratios in subfossil deep-sea proteinaceous coral skeletons as paleo-recorders of biogeochemical information over multimillennial timescales

Paleoproxy records in deep-sea proteinaceous coral skeletons can reconstruct past ocean conditions on centennial to millennial time scales. Commonly recovered subfossil specimens could potentially extend these archives through the Holocene. However, protein matrix stability and integrity of stable isotope proxies over multi-millennial timescales in such specimens have never been examined. Here we compare amino acid (AA) composition together with bulk and AA compound-specific carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotopes in live-collected and subfossil (~9.6–11.6 kyrs BP) Kulamanamana haumeaae deep-sea coral specimens from the central Pacific to understand the effects of long-duration benthic oxic exposure on primary coral chemistry. We find large coupled shifts in bulk δ 15 N (~7‰) and δ 13 C (~2‰) in the outermost portion (0–10 mm) of the subfossil coral, coincident with extensive alteration of the protein matrix. Microstructural changes in skeletal texture coincide with higher C/N ratios (+0.8) and isotope-based amino acid degradation parameters (e.g. ΣV ≥ 3), indicating extensive degradation of seawater-exposed gorgonin. However, interior gorgonin (>10 mm) retained amino acid molecular compositions (with exception of major Glycine loss) and bulk and amino acid-specific isotopic values that were similar to live-collected specimens. These results indicate that compound-specific isotope analysis of amino acids can reconstruct paleo-oceanographic biogeochemical and ecosystem information in subfossil corals beyond a clear diagenetic horizon, which is easily identifiable from an evaluation of C/N ratios together with the ΣV degradation proxy.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dual carbonate clumped isotopes (Δ 47 -Δ 48 ) constrains kinetic effects and timescales in peridotite-associated springs at the Cedars, Northern California

The Cedars is an area in Northern California with a chain of highly alkaline springs resulting from CO 2 -charged meteorological water interacting with a peridotite body. Serpentinization resulting from this interaction at depth leads to the sequestration of various carbonate minerals into veins accompanied by a release of Ca 2+ and OH – enriched water to the surface, creating an environment which promotes rapid precipitation of CaCO 3 at surface springs. This environment enables us to apply the recently developed Δ 47 -Δ 48 dual clumped isotope analysis to probe kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) and timescales of CO 2 transformation in a region with the potential for geological CO 2 sequestration. Here, we analyzed CaCO 3 recovered from various localities and identified significant kinetic fractionations associated with CO 2 absorption in a majority of samples, characterized by enrichment in Δ 47 values and depletion in Δ 48 values relative to equilibrium. Surface floes exhibited the largest KIEs (ΔΔ 47 : 0.163‰, ΔΔ 48 : -0.761‰). Surface floe samples begin to precipitate out of solution within the first hour of CO 2 absorption, and the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) pool requires a residence time of >100 h to achieve isotopic equilibria. The Δ 48 /Δ 47 slope of samples from the Cedars (-3.223 ± 0.519) is within the range of published theoretical values designed to constrain CO 2 hydrolysis-related kinetic fractionation (-1.724 to -8.330). The Δ 47 /δ 18 O slope (-0.009 ± 0.001) and Δ 47 /δ 13 C slope (-0.009 ± 0.001) are roughly consistent with literature values reported from a peridotite in Oman of -0.006 ± 0.002 and -0.005 ± 0.002, respectively. The consistency of slopes in the multi-isotope space suggests the Δ 47 -Δ 48 dual carbonate clumped isotope framework can be applied to study CO 2 -absorption processes in applied systems, including sites of interest for geological sequestration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring Causal Relationships and Adjustment Timescales of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions in Geostationary Satellite Observations and CAM6 Using Wavelet Phase Coherence Analysis

We present for the first time within the cloud physics context, the application of wavelet phase coherence analysis to disentangle counteracting physical processes associated with the lead-lag phase difference between cloud-proxy liquid water path (LWP) and aerosol-proxy cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) in an Eulerian framework using satellite-based observations and climate model outputs. This approach allows us to identify the causality and dominant adjustment timescales governing the correlation between LWP and N d . Satellite observations indicate a more prevalent positive correlation between daytime LWP and N d regardless of whether LWP leads or lags N d . The positive cloud water response, associated with precipitation processes, typically occurs within 1 hr, while the negative response resulting from entrainment drying, usually takes 2–4 hr. CAM6 displays excessively rapid negative responses along with overly strong negative cloud water response and insufficient positive response, leading to a more negative correlation between LWP and N d compared to observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topanga: A kinetic ion plasma code for large-scale ionospheric simulations on magnetohydrodynamic timescales

Topanga is a kinetic ion code developed for simulating large-scale plasma phenomena in the Earth's ionosphere on magnetohydrodynamic timescales. It is a domain-decomposed parallel code that runs on high-performance computing platforms. Features of Topanga include spherical geometry for simplified boundary conditions and computational efficiency; a hybrid plasma model with inertia-less fluid electrons, kinetic ions, and an electric field specified via an Ohm's law; a Maxwell-FDTD (finite difference time domain) plasma model which retains the displacement current in Maxwell's equations and models electron currents in the ionosphere with a tensor conductivity; sponge-layer boundary conditions for absorption of electromagnetic and plasma waves incident on the domain boundaries; and a novel mixed-implicit algorithm for evolving the EM fields inside the Maxwell-FDTD region that is stable over many orders of magnitude in the electron–ion collision frequency. We verify the numerical methods used in Topanga on a pair of test problems. The first test involves modeling a three-dimensional collisionless shock using the hybrid set of equations. The second test involves modeling a spherical TEM mode in vacuum using the Maxwell-FDTD set of equations. Finally, we demonstrate how using the combined set of hybrid and Maxwell-FDTD equations to model the Starfish Prime high-altitude nuclear test recovers a “missing” EM signal on the ground that is not present when using only the hybrid set of equations. The magnitude of this signal in the simulation containing the Maxwell-FDTD region agrees well with the E3a portion of the magnetohydrodynamic electromagnetic pulse from Starfish Prime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

An updated technique to obtain explosive kinetics data on microsecond timescales

There are few techniques available for chemists to obtain time-to-explosion data with known temperature inputs at the early stages of the design and synthesis of new explosives. In the 1960s, a technique was developed to rapidly heat milligram-quantities of confined explosives to ~1000 K on microsecond timescales. Wenograd loaded explosives inside stainless steel hypodermic needles, connected them to a fireset and rapidly discharged a capacitor through the steel. He obtained the temperature by measuring the needle resistance in a Wheatstone bridge arrangement and the time to explosion from a needle rupture. However, owing to the narrow-gauge needles used in the original research, the experiment was only possible with melt-castable explosives; it was never replicated, and modern diagnostics are now available with advances beyond the 1960s. Here, we report the development of the High Explosives Initiation Time (HEIT) test, which utilizes a 250 J pulsed power system to heat the needles. This work extends the Wenograd approach by using optical diagnostics, computational modeling, and advanced techniques to measure needle resistance and needle rupture. Preliminary rate information for pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) will be presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Long timescale solvation dynamics and confinement: The case of non-ionic deep eutectic solvents of lauric acid and N-methylacetamide

Microscopic segregation and molecular heterogeneities in complex liquids are the result of the interplay between different intermolecular forces, all of which contribute to the energy landscape of the system. A consequence of the intricate energy landscape is the nontrivial effect on the solvation dynamics. Here, the impact of molecular heterogeneities on the solvation dynamics is studied using infrared spectroscopies and molecular dynamics simulations. In particular, this study focuses on the dynamical effect of nanoscopic heterogeneities present in deep eutectic solvents (DESs) composed of lauric acid (LA) and N-methylacetamide (NMA). To this end, a molecular probe containing a carbon triple bond is used as an infrared reporter. The results show that the vibrational probe is likely to be located in the NMA polar domains. Furthermore, the probe solvation dynamics derived from the 2DIR spectra presents a slowdown of its timescale with increasing LA concentration in the DES. Kubo modeling of the probe solvation dynamics shows a correlation between the amplitude of its long time component and the presence of molecular heterogeneities in the sample. Semiclassical modeling of the vibrational line shape of the triple bond stretch demonstrates that the heterogeneities affect the whole solvation dynamics of the system through the amplitudes of the frequency fluctuations. Molecular dynamics simulations confirm the experimental results and their interpretation by showing a slowdown of the solvation dynamics when the LA heterogeneities are present. Overall, the study presents a molecular framework to explain the effect of confinement created by nanoscopic LA heterogeneities on the solvation dynamics of the system.

Chemical compounds↗

Comparison of reduced model predictions for divertor detachment onset and reattachment timescales in ASDEX Upgrade and JET experiments

Building on prior analysis of ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) experiments (Henderson et al 2023 Nucl. Fusion63 086024), this study compares simple analytical formula predictions for divertor detachment onset and reattachment timescales in JET experiments. Detachment onset primarily scales with divertor neutral pressure, impurity concentration, power directed to the targets, machine size, and integral perpendicular power decay length. JET experiments, focusing on seeding mixtures of Ne and Ar, align with the detachment onset predictions. Radiation efficiencies among the impurities show good agreement with the model predictions, contrasting with AUG observations which suggested higher efficiency for Ar and lower efficiency for Ne. The time taken to re-ionise the neutral volume in front of the outer target in fully detached divertor conditions was measured following both abrupt increases in injected neutral beam power and, separately, cutting of the impurity gas flow. Re-ionisation of the neutrals occurs within approximately 1 s on JET, which aligns with the simple model prediction derived from AUG data. While the AUG results are not new, their comparison with the JET results enhances understanding, reinforcing confidence in using simple models to predict future reactor scenarios.

JET↗

Experimental study of extended timescale dynamics of a plasma wakefield driven by a self-modulated proton bunch

Plasma wakefield dynamics over timescales up to 800 ps, approximately 100 plasma periods, are studied experimentally at the Advanced Wakefield Experiment (AWAKE). The development of the longitudinal wakefield amplitude driven by a self-modulated proton bunch is measured using the external injection of witness electrons that sample the fields. In simulation, resonant excitation of the wakefield causes plasma electron trajectory crossing, resulting in the development of a potential outside the plasma boundary as electrons are transversely ejected. Trends consistent with the presence of this potential are experimentally measured and their dependence on wakefield amplitude are studied via seed laser timing scans and electron injection delay scans.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Relaxation timescales and electron-phonon coupling in optically pumped $\mathrm{YBa_2Cu_3O_{6+\mathcal{x}}}$ revealed by time-resolved Raman scattering

Time-resolved measurements provide a new way to disentangle complex interactions in quantum materials due to their different timescales. We used pump-probe Raman scattering to investigate the apical oxygen vibration in $\mathrm{YBa_2Cu_3O_{6+\mathcal{x}}}$ under nonequilibrium conditions. Time dependence of the phonon population demonstrated strong electron-phonon coupling. Most importantly, the phonon shifts to a higher energy due to transient smearing of the Fermi surface in a remarkable agreement with diagrammatic theory. Here we also discuss insights into photoinduced superconductivity reported at lower doping that follow from these results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Millisecond timescale reactions observed via X-ray spectroscopy in a 3D microfabricated fused silica mixer

Determination of electronic structures during chemical reactions remains challenging in studies which involve reactions in the millisecond timescale, toxic chemicals, and/or anaerobic conditions. Here, a three-dimensionally (3D) microfabricated microfluidic mixer platform that is compatible with time-resolved X-ray absorption and emission spectroscopy (XAS and XES, respectively) is presented. This platform, to initiate reactions and study their progression, mixes a high flow rate (0.50–1.5 ml min –1 ) sheath stream with a low-flow-rate (5–90 µl min –1 ) sample stream within a monolithic fused silica chip. The chip geometry enables hydro­dynamic focusing of the sample stream in 3D and sample widths as small as 5 µm. The chip is also connected to a polyimide capillary downstream to enable sample stream deceleration, expansion, and X-ray detection. In this capillary, sample widths of 50 µm are demonstrated. Further, convection–diffusion-reaction models of the mixer are presented. The models are experimentally validated using confocal epifluorescence microscopy and XAS/XES measurements of a ferricyanide and ascorbic acid reaction. The models additionally enable prediction of the residence time and residence time uncertainty of reactive species as well as mixing times. Residence times (from initiation of mixing to the point of X-ray detection) during sample stream expansion as small as 2.1 ± 0.3 ms are also demonstrated. Importantly, an exploration of the mixer operational space reveals a theoretical minimum mixing time of 0.91 ms. The proposed platform is applicable to the determination of the electronic structure of conventionally inaccessible reaction intermediates.

3D microfabrication↗

Multi-Timescale Optimal Operation Framework for Integrated Economic and Reliability Analysis of Hybrid Power Plants

This paper introduces a hierarchical modeling framework for hybrid power plants (HPP) to facilitate the operation of HPP in power systems similar to conventional generators (Congens) in the integrated multi-timescale optimal operation framework. To consider the uncertainties of HPP renewable power in the day-ahead scheduling, distributionally robust optimization (DRO) is used. To ensure that the state-of-charge (SOC) of energy storage systems in HPPs aligns closely with the planned value for long-term reliability, real-time SOC management is incorporated. In addition, an adjustable real-time control is designed for the robust delivery of HPP real-time services. Case studies performed on a revised IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework for HPP operation. Simulation results highlight that the proposed framework not only can help operators schedule HPP similar to Congens in varying weather conditions but can also maintain the frequency reliability of the system.

frequency stability↗

Bayesian Framework for Multi-Timescale State Estimation in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

To support the smart grid paradigm, there has been a significant increase in sensor deployments and metering infrastructure in distribution systems. However, the measurements provided by these sensors and metering devices are typically sampled at different rates and could suffer from losses during the aggregation process. It is crucial to effectively reconcile the time-series measurements for a reliable state estimation. While weighted least squares has been the traditional approach for state estimation, sparsity-based approaches like matrix completion have become popular due to their superior performance in low-observability conditions. This paper proposes a Bayesian framework for both multi-timescale data aggregation and matrix completion based state estimation. Specifically, the multiscale time-series data aggregated from heterogenous sources are reconciled using a multitask Gaussian process that exploits the spatio-temporal correlations. Here, the resulting consistent timeseries alongwith the confidence bound on the imputations are fed into a Bayesian matrix completion method augmented with linearized power-flow constraints to accurately estimate the states in low-observability conditions. Results on three phase unbalanced IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems reveal the superior performance of the proposed Bayesian framework. The computational complexity for the proposed Bayesian framework is also quantified.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Recursive Gaussian Process over graphs for Integrating Multi-timescale Measurements in Low-Observable Distribution Systems

The transition to a smarter grid is empowered by enhanced sensor deployments and smart metering infrastructure in the distribution system. Measurements from these sensors and meters can be used for many applications, including distribution system state estimation (DSSE). However, these measurements are typically sampled at different rates and could be intermittent due to losses during the aggregation process. These multi timescale measurements should be reconciled in real-time to perform accurate grid monitoring. This paper tackles this problem by formulating a recursive multi-task Gaussian process (RGP-G) approach that sequentially aggregates sensor measurements. Specifically, we formulate a recursive multi-task GP with and without network connectivity information to reconcile the multi time-scale measurements in distribution systems. Here, the proposed framework is capable of aggregating the multi-time scale measurements batch-wise or in real-time. Following the aggregation of the multi time-scale measurements, the spatial states of the consistent time-series are estimated using matrix completion based DSSE approach. Simulation results on IEEE 37 and IEEE 123 bus test systems illustrate the efficiency of the proposed methods from the standpoint of both multi time-scale data aggregation and DSSE.

42 ENGINEERING↗