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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

U.S. residential consumer product information: Validation of methods for post-stratification weighting of Amazon Mechanical Turk surveys

We present two post-stratification weighting methods to validate survey data collected using Amazon Mechanical Turk (AMT). Two surveys focused on appliance and consumer electronics devices were administered in the spring and summer of 2012 to each of approximately 3,000 U.S. households. Specifically, the surveys asked questions about residential refrigeration products, televisions (TVs) and set-top boxes (STBs). Filtered data were assigned weights using each of two weighting methods, termed “sequential” and “simultaneous,” by examining up to eight demographic variables (income, education, gender, race, Hispanic origin, number of occupants, ages of occupants, and geographic region) in comparison to reference U.S. demographic data from the 2009 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). Five key questions from the surveys (number of refrigerators, number of freezers, number of TVs, number of STBs and primary service provider) were evaluated with a set of statistical tests to determine whether either method improved the agreement of AMT with reference data, and if so, which method was better. The statistical tests used were: differences in proportions, distributions of proportions (using Pearson’s chi-squared test), and differences in average numbers of devices as functions of all demographic variables. The results indicated that both methods generally improved the agreement between AMT and reference data, sometimes greatly, but that the simultaneous method was usually superior to the sequential method. Some differences in sample populations were found between the AMT and reference data. Differences in the proportion of STBs reflected large changes in the STB market since the time our reference data was acquired in 2009. Differences in the proportions of some primary service providers suggested real sample bias, with the possible explanation that AMT user are more likely to subscribe to providers who also provide home internet service. Differences in other variables, while statistically significant in some cases, were nonetheless considered to be minor. Depending on the intended purpose of the data collected using AMT, these biases may or may not be important; to correct them, additional questions and/or further post-survey adjustments could be employed. In general, based on the analysis methods and the sample datasets used in this study, AMT surveys appeared to provide useful data on appliance and consumer electronics devices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Precision test of statistical dynamics with state-to-state ultracold chemistry

Chemical reactions represent a class of quantum problems that challenge both the current theoretical understanding and computational capabilities1. Reactions that occur at ultralow temperatures provide an ideal testing ground for quantum chemistry and scattering theories, because they can be experimentally studied with unprecedented control, yet display dynamics that are highly complex. Here we report the full product state distribution for the reaction 2KRb → K 2 + Rb 2 . Ultracold preparation of the reactants allows us complete control over their initial quantum degrees of freedom, whereas state-resolved, coincident detection of both products enables the probability of scattering into each of the 57 allowed rotational state-pairs to be measured. Our results show an overall agreement with a state-counting model based on statistical theory, but also reveal several deviating state-pairs. In particular, we observe a strong suppression of population in the state-pair closest to the exoergicity limit as a result of the long-range potential inhibiting the escape of products. Finally, the completeness of our measurements provides a benchmark for quantum dynamics calculations beyond the current state of the art.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2014

A dual model HU conversion from MRI intensity values within and outside of bone segment for MRI-based radiotherapy treatment planning of prostate cancer

Purpose: The lack of electron density information in magnetic resonance images (MRI) poses a major challenge for MRI-based radiotherapy treatment planning (RTP). In this study the authors convert MRI intensity values into Hounsfield units (HUs) in the male pelvis and thus enable accurate MRI-based RTP for prostate cancer patients with varying tissue anatomy and body fat contents. Methods: T{sub 1}/T{sub 2}*-weighted MRI intensity values and standard computed tomography (CT) image HUs in the male pelvis were analyzed using image data of 10 prostate cancer patients. The collected data were utilized to generate a dual model HU conversion technique from MRI intensity values of the single image set separately within and outside of contoured pelvic bones. Within the bone segment local MRI intensity values were converted to HUs by applying a second-order polynomial model. This model was tuned for each patient by two patient-specific adjustments: MR signal normalization to correct shifts in absolute intensity level and application of a cutoff value to accurately represent low density bony tissue HUs. For soft tissues, such as fat and muscle, located outside of the bone contours, a threshold-based segmentation method without requirements for any patient-specific adjustments was introduced to convert MRI intensity values into HUs. The dual model HU conversion technique was implemented by constructing pseudo-CT images for 10 other prostate cancer patients. The feasibility of these images for RTP was evaluated by comparing HUs in the generated pseudo-CT images with those in standard CT images, and by determining deviations in MRI-based dose distributions compared to those in CT images with 7-field intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) with the anisotropic analytical algorithm and 360° volumetric-modulated arc therapy (VMAT) with the Voxel Monte Carlo algorithm. Results: The average HU differences between the constructed pseudo-CT images and standard CT images of each test patient ranged from −2 to 5 HUs and from 22 to 78 HUs in soft and bony tissues, respectively. The average local absolute value differences were 11 HUs in soft tissues and 99 HUs in bones. The planning target volume doses (volumes 95%, 50%, 5%) in the pseudo-CT images were within 0.8% compared to those in CT images in all of the 20 treatment plans. The average deviation was 0.3%. With all the test patients over 94% (IMRT) and 92% (VMAT) of dose points within body (lower than 10% of maximum dose suppressed) passed the 1 mm and 1% 2D gamma index criterion. The statistical tests (t- and F-tests) showed significantly improved (p ≤ 0.05) HU and dose calculation accuracies with the soft tissue conversion method instead of homogeneous representation of these tissues in MRI-based RTP images. Conclusions: This study indicates that it is possible to construct high quality pseudo-CT images by converting the intensity values of a single MRI series into HUs in the male pelvis, and to use these images for accurate MRI-based prostate RTP dose calculations.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Neutron/Gamma-ray discrimination through measures of fit

Statistical tests and their underlying measures of fit can be utilized to separate neutron/gamma-ray pulses in a mixed radiation field. In this article, first the application of a sample statistical test is explained. Fit measurement-based methods require true pulse shapes to be used as reference for discrimination. This requirement makes practical implementation of these methods difficult; typically another discrimination approach should be employed to capture samples of neutrons and gamma-rays before running the fit-based technique. In this article, we also propose a technique to eliminate this requirement. These approaches are applied to several sets of mixed neutron and gamma-ray pulses obtained through different digitizers using stilbene scintillator in order to analyze them and measure their discrimination quality. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1982

A bootstrap approach to bump hunting

An important question in cluster analysis and pattern recognition is the determination of the number of clusters into which a given population should be divided. Frequently, particularly when certain specific clustering methods are being used, the number of clusters is taken to be equal to the number of modes, or local maxima, in the probability density function underlying the given data set. The use of kernal density estimates in mode estimation is discussed. The test statistic to be used is defined and a bootstrap technique for assessing significance is given. An illustrative application is followed by an examination of the asymptotic behavior of the test statistic.

Silverman, B. W.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Biological Optimization in Volumetric Modulated Arc Radiotherapy for Prostate Carcinoma

Purpose: To investigate the potential benefits achievable with biological optimization for modulated volumetric arc (VMAT) treatments of prostate carcinoma. Methods and Materials: Fifteen prostate patient plans were studied retrospectively. For each case, planning target volume, rectum, and bladder were considered. Three optimization schemes were used: dose-volume histogram (DVH) based, generalized equivalent uniform dose (gEUD) based, and mixed DVH/gEUD based. For each scheme, a single or dual 6-MV, 356 Degree-Sign VMAT arc was used. The plans were optimized with Pinnacle{sup 3} (v. 9.0 beta) treatment planning system. For each patient, the optimized dose distributions were normalized to deliver the same prescription dose. The quality of the plans was evaluated by dose indices (DIs) and gEUDs for rectum and bladder. The tallied DIs were D{sub 1%}, D{sub 15%}, D{sub 25%}, and D{sub 40%}, and the tallied gEUDs were for a values of 1 and 6. Statistical tests were used to quantify the magnitude and the significance of the observed differences. Monitor units and treatment times for each optimization scheme were also assessed. Results: All optimization schemes generated clinically acceptable plans. The statistical tests indicated that biological optimization yielded increased organs-at-risk sparing, ranging from {approx}1% to more than {approx}27% depending on the tallied DI, gEUD, and anatomical structure. The increased sparing was at the expense of longer treatment times and increased number of monitor units. Conclusions: Biological optimization can significantly increase the organs-at-risk sparing in VMAT optimization for prostate carcinoma. In some particular cases, however, the DVH-based optimization resulted in superior treatment plans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Quantifying (dis)agreement between direct detection experiments in a halo-independent way

We propose an improved method to study recent and near-future dark matter direct detection experiments with small numbers of observed events. Our method determines in a quantitative and halo-independent way whether the experiments point towards a consistent dark matter signal and identifies the best-fit dark matter parameters. To achieve true halo independence, we apply a recently developed method based on finding the velocity distribution that best describes a given set of data. For a quantitative global analysis we construct a likelihood function suitable for small numbers of events, which allows us to determine the best-fit particle physics properties of dark matter considering all experiments simultaneously. Based on this likelihood function we propose a new test statistic that quantifies how well the proposed model fits the data and how large the tension between different direct detection experiments is. We perform Monte Carlo simulations in order to determine the probability distribution function of this test statistic and to calculate the p-value for both the dark matter hypothesis and the background-only hypothesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Optimization of energy window for {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT imaging for detection tasks using the ideal observer with model-mismatch

Purpose: In yttrium-90 ({sup 90}Y) microsphere brachytherapy (radioembolization) of unresectable liver cancer, posttherapy {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) has been used to document the distribution of microspheres in the patient and to help predict potential side effects. The energy window used during projection acquisition can have a significant effect on image quality. Thus, using an optimal energy window is desirable. However, there has been great variability in the choice of energy window due to the continuous and broad energy distribution of {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung photons. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the ideal observer (IO) is a widely used figure of merit (FOM) for optimizing the imaging system for detection tasks. The IO implicitly assumes a perfect model of the image formation process. However, for {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT there can be substantial model-mismatch (i.e., difference between the actual image formation process and the model of it assumed in reconstruction), and the amount of the model-mismatch depends on the energy window. It is thus important to account for the degradation of the observer performance due to model-mismatch in the optimization of the energy window. The purpose of this paper is to optimize the energy window for {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT for a detection task while taking into account the effects of the model-mismatch. Methods: An observer, termed the ideal observer with model-mismatch (IO-MM), has been proposed previously to account for the effects of the model-mismatch on IO performance. In this work, the AUC for the IO-MM was used as the FOM for the optimization. To provide a clinically realistic object model and imaging simulation, the authors used a background-known-statistically and signal-known-statistically task. The background was modeled as multiple compartments in the liver with activity parameters independently following a Gaussian distribution; the signal was modeled as a tumor with a Gaussian-distributed activity parameter located randomly with equal probability at one of three positions. The IO test statistics (i.e., likelihood ratios) were estimated using Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods. The authors realistically modeled human anatomy using a digital phantom code, and realistically simulated {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT imaging with a clinical SPECT system and typical imaging parameters using a previously validated Monte Carlo bremsstrahlung simulation method. Model-mismatch was included by modeling image formation process in the calculation of IO test statistics using an analytic modeling method previously developed for quantitative {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT. To demonstrate the effects of the model-mismatch on the detection task, the authors optimized the energy window both with and without model-mismatch included in the IO. Results: For all the energy windows, the AUC values for the IO-MM were smaller than that for the IO. The optimal windows for the IO-MM and the IO were 80-180 and 60-400 keV, respectively. Conclusions: The authors have demonstrated the degradation of the ideal performance due to model-mismatch and optimized the energy window for {sup 90}Y bremsstrahlung SPECT for detection tasks by accounting for the effects of the model-mismatch. The obtained optimal window was much narrower when taking into account the model-mismatch and similar to that obtained previously for estimation tasks.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
NASA NTRS1994

A coronagraphic search for brown dwarfs around nearby stars

Brown dwarf companions have been searched for around stars within 10 pc of the Sun using the Johns-Hopkins University Adaptive Optics Coronagraph (AOC), a stellar coronagraph with an image stabilizer. The AOC covers the field around the target star with a minimum search radius of 1 sec .5 and a field of view of 1 arcmin sq. We have reached an unprecedented dynamic range of Delta m = 13 in our search for faint companions at I band. Comparison of our survey with other brown dwarf searches shows that the AOC technique is unique in its dynamic range while at the same time just as sensitive to brown dwarfs as the recent brown dwarf surveys. The present survey covered 24 target stars selected from the Gliese catalog. A total of 94 stars were detected in 16 fields. The low-latitude fields are completely dominated by background star contamination. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were carried out for a sample restricted to high latitudes and a sample with small angular separations. The high-latitude sample (b greater than or equal to 44 deg) appears to show spatial concentration toward target stars. The small separation sample (Delta Theta less than 20 sec) shows weaker dependence on Galactic coordinates than field stars. These statistical tests suggest that both the high-latitude sample and the small separation sample can include a substantial fraction of true companions. However, the nature of these putative companions is mysterious. They are too faint to be white dwarfs and too blue for brown dwarfs. Ignoring the signif icance of the statistical tests, we can reconcile most of the detections with distant main-sequence stars or white dwarfs except for a candidate next to GL 475. Given the small size of our sample, we conclude that considerably more targets need to be surveyed before a firm conclusion on the possibility of a new class of companions can be made.

Nakajima, T.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Hypothesis Testing using CNN Features for Synthesis of Adversarial Counterexamples to Human and Object Detection Vision Systems

Validating the correctness of human detection vision systems is crucial for safety applications such as pedestrian collision avoidance in autonomous vehicles. The enormous space of possible inputs to such an intelligent system makes it difficult to design test cases for such systems. In this report, we present our tool MAYA that uses an error model derived from a convolutional neural network (CNN) to explore the space of images similar to a given input image, and then tests the correctness of a given human or object detection system on such perturbed images. We demonstrate the capability of our tool on the pre-trained Histogram-of-Oriented-Gradients (HOG) human detection algorithm implemented in the popular OpenCV toolset and the Caffe object detection system pre-trained on the ImageNet benchmark. Our tool may serve as a testing resource for the designers of intelligent human and object detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

A critical analysis of high-redshift, massive, galaxy clusters. Part I

We critically investigate current statistical tests applied to high redshift clusters of galaxies in order to test the standard cosmological model and describe their range of validity. We carefully compare a sample of high-redshift, massive, galaxy clusters with realistic Poisson sample simulations of the theoretical mass function, which include the effect of Eddington bias. We compare the observations and simulations using the following statistical tests: the distributions of ensemble and individual existence probabilities (in the > M, > z sense), the redshift distributions, and the 2d Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Using seemingly rare clusters from Hoyle et al. (2011), and Jee et al. (2011) and assuming the same survey geometry as in Jee et al. (2011, which is less conservative than Hoyle et al. 2011), we find that the ( > M, > z) existence probabilities of all clusters are fully consistent with ΛCDM. However assuming the same survey geometry, we use the 2d K-S test probability to show that the observed clusters are not consistent with being the least probable clusters from simulations at > 95% confidence, and are also not consistent with being a random selection of clusters, which may be caused by the non-trivial selection function and survey geometry. Tension can be removed if we examine only a X-ray selected sub sample, with simulations performed assuming a modified survey geometry.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Exact and Near-Exact Distribution Approach to the Behrens–Fisher Problem

The Behrens–Fisher problem occurs when testing the equality of means of two normal distributions without the assumption that the two variances are equal. This paper presents approaches based on the exact and near-exact distributions for the test statistic of the Behrens–Fisher problem, depending on different combinations of even or odd sample sizes. We present the exact distribution when both sample sizes are odd and the near-exact distribution when one or both sample sizes are even. The near-exact distributions are based on a finite mixture of generalized integer gamma (GIG) distributions, used as an approximation to the exact distribution, which consists of an infinite series. The proposed tests, based on the exact and the near-exact distributions, are compared with Welch’s t-test through Monte Carlo simulations, in particular for small and unbalanced sample sizes. The results show that the proposed approaches are competent solutions to the Behrens–Fisher problem, exhibiting precise sizes and better powers than Welch’s approach for those cases. Numerical studies show that the Welch’s t-test tends to be a bit more conservative than the test statistics based on the exact or near-exact distribution, in particular when sample sizes are small and unbalanced, situations in which the proposed exact or near-exact distributions obtain higher powers than Welch’s t-test.

Hong, Serim↗
NASA NTRS1989

The distribution of galaxies in Abell 1975

The distribution of galaxies in the field of Abell 1795 is studied, based on a red photograph obtained with the Palomar 1.2 m Schmidt telescope. A battery of statistical tests has been applied to the positional data of galaxies in A 1795, in order to assess the significance of asymmetry and subclustering. The large-scale distribution of galaxies is asymmetric, with an elongation to the north. Although there appear to be two, or possibly three, clumps of galaxies in the cluster core, various statistical tests provide no convincing evidence for subclustering. This may be due to the small number of galaxies in the core. These results are discussed in light of the recent observations by Hill et al. (1988) that the cD galaxy in A 1795 has a large peculiar velocity with respect to the cluster mean.

Oegerle, William R.↗
NASA NTRS1996

On the Relationship Between Transit Velocity of Interplanetary Shocks and Solar Active Processes

Recently, it was reported that preferential relationships exist between the transit velocity V(sub T) of earthward-directed interplanetary shocks and solar active processes, in particular, eruptive filaments outside active regions (the size of the erupting filament L(sub f)) and solar flares (the value of the X-ray characteristic J). Unfortunately, statistical testing of the proposed associations was not accomplished, nor was the 'geo-effectiveness' of the events adequately described. Reported here are the results of a re-examination of the 21 eruptive filaments (SSC-EF events) and 26 X-ray flares (SSC-F events) that have been associated with storm sudden commencements (SSCs) at Earth. Simple statistical testing refutes the claim that a preferential relationship exists between V(sub T) and L(sub F), while it supports the claim that one exists between V(sub T) and J. More importantly, the inferred relationship between V(sub T) and J is found to be more complicated than previously thought. In particular, it now appears that SSC-F events may be separable into two groups, based on the value of J: a low-J group (J less than 56), in which V(sub T) varies directly with J, and a high-J group (J greater than 56), in which V(sub T) varies inversely with J. As a whole, high-J events are associated with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of low-J events, and SSC-F events with shocks of higher average transit velocity than those of SSC-EF events. Further, high-J events tend to be of greater X-ray class ( greater than M3), longer duration (greater then 80 min), and are more likely to be associated with type II/IV radio emission (9 of 12) than low-J events. They also tend to occur in magnetically complex (gamma/delta configuration) active regions (10 of 12) that are large in area extent (area greater than 445 millionths of a solar hemisphere) on the day of flaring (9 of 12). Of the 9 solar proton events that affected the Earth's environment that were found to be associated with SSC-F events, six were high-J events. Concerning 'geo-effectiveness', there appears to be no preferential relationship between the value of the J-parameter and the most negative value of the Dst geomagnetic index Dst(min) following the SSC, which is found to usually occur at 6-14 h after SSC onset (18 of 26) and which ranged in value from -1 to -249 (having a median value of about -75). Of the 26 SSC-F events, only 14 can be associated with a Dst(min) less than or equal to -75, and of these only 7 were high-J events. Of the 14 storm-related events (i.e. Dst(min) less than or equal to -75), three have previously been identified as being either 'magnetic clouds' or 'bidirectional flows', both manifestations of earthward-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Superposed epoch analyses of selected solar wind parameters and Dst during the interval of storm-related SSC-F events demonstrate that geoeffective SSC-F events tend to be associated with solar wind flows that are faster, greater in magnetic field strength, and have a rotating field which has a strong southward component shortly after SSC onset, in comparison to SSC-F events that do not have Dst(min) less than or equal to 75. Therefore, it is inferred that geoeffective SSC-F events are probably fast earthward-directed CMEs. Although no single parameter is found that can serve as a predictor of high-skill level for determining the geoeffectiveness of an SSC-F event prior to its occurrence at Earth, one finds that knowledge of the flare's hemispheric location and appearance or lack of appearance of a two-ribbon structure is sufficient to correctly predict the geoeffectiveness of 20 out of 25 of the SSC-F events (80%). Surprisingly, the association or lack of association of metric type II/IV radio emission as a characteristic for determining the geoeffectiveness of the SSC-F events proved unfruitful, as did, to a lesser extent, the duration of the X-ray emission.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Can we identify lensed gamma-ray bursts?

A gravitationally lensed gamma-ray burst (GRB) would appear as multiple bursts with identical light curves, separated in time and differing only by the scaling of their amplitudes. In reality, the detected bursts will be noisy, and therefore they may be difficult to identify as lensed images. Furthermore, faint, intrinsically similar, yet distinct light curves may be falsely identified as lensing events. In this paper we develop two statistical tests to distinguish noisy burst light curves. We use Fourier analysis techniques to analyze the signals for both intrinsic variability and variability due to noise. We are able to determine the noise level, and we compare the bursts only at frequency channels that are signal dominated. Utilizing these methods, we are able to make quantitative statements about whether two bursts are distinct. We apply these statistics to scaled versions of two subbursts of GRB 910503 -- subbursts previously investigated by Wambsganss using a different statistical test. We find that our methods are able to distinguish these bursts at slightly smaller amplitudes than those at which Wambsganss's method succeeds. We then apply our techniques to 'candidate' lensing events taken from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) catalog, and we find that nearly all of them, except for the very shortest ones (durations approx. less than 3 sec), are distinguishable. We therefore expect that a majority of bursts will be distinguishable from one another.

Nowak, Michael A.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Dynamics of coupled simplest chaotic two-component electronic circuits and its potential application to random bit generation

We numerically investigate the possibility of using a coupling to increase the complexity in simplest chaotic two-component electronic circuits operating at high frequency. We subsequently show that complex behaviors generated in such coupled systems, together with the post-processing are suitable for generating bit-streams which pass all the NIST tests for randomness. The electronic circuit is built up by unidirectionally coupling three two-component (one active and one passive) oscillators in a ring configuration through resistances. It turns out that, with such a coupling, high chaotic signals can be obtained. By extracting points at fixed interval of 10 ns (corresponding to a bit rate of 100 Mb/s) on such chaotic signals, each point being simultaneously converted in 16-bits (or 8-bits), we find that the binary sequence constructed by including the 10(or 2) least significant bits pass statistical tests of randomness, meaning that bit-streams with random properties can be achieved with an overall bit rate up to 10×100 Mb/s =1Gbit/s (or 2×100 Mb/s =200 Megabit/s). Moreover, by varying the bias voltages, we also investigate the parameter range for which more complex signals can be obtained. Besides being simple to implement, the two-component electronic circuit setup is very cheap as compared to optical and electro-optical systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS2016

Quantitative Validation of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for ISS Missions

Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) provided observed medical event data on 33 ISS and 111 STS person-missions for use in further improving and validating the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Using only the crew characteristics from these observed missions, the newest development version, IMM v4.0, will simulate these missions to predict medical events and outcomes. Comparing IMM predictions to the actual observed medical event counts will provide external validation and identify areas of possible improvement. In an effort to improve the power of detecting differences in this validation study, the total over each program ISS and STS will serve as the main quantitative comparison objective, specifically the following parameters: total medical events (TME), probability of loss of crew life (LOCL), and probability of evacuation (EVAC). Scatter plots of observed versus median predicted TMEs (with error bars reflecting the simulation intervals) will graphically display comparisons while linear regression will serve as the statistical test of agreement. Two scatter plots will be analyzed 1) where each point reflects a mission and 2) where each point reflects a condition-specific total number of occurrences. The coefficient of determination (R2) resulting from a linear regression with no intercept bias (intercept fixed at zero) will serve as an overall metric of agreement between IMM and the real world system (RWS). In an effort to identify as many possible discrepancies as possible for further inspection, the -level for all statistical tests comparing IMM predictions to observed data will be set to 0.1. This less stringent criterion, along with the multiple testing being conducted, should detect all perceived differences including many false positive signals resulting from random variation. The results of these analyses will reveal areas of the model requiring adjustment to improve overall IMM output, which will thereby provide better decision support for mission critical applications.

validation↗
DOE OSTI2014

Diffuse γ-ray emission from misaligned active galactic nuclei

Active galactic nuclei (AGNs) with jets seen at small viewing angles are the most luminous and abundant objects in the γ-ray sky. AGNs with jets misaligned along the line of sight appear fainter in the sky but are more numerous than the brighter blazars. We calculate the diffuse γ-ray emission due to the population of misaligned AGNs (MAGNs) unresolved by the Large Area Telescope (LAT) on the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope (Fermi). A correlation between the γ-ray luminosity and the radio-core luminosity is established and demonstrated to be physical by statistical tests, as well as compatible with upper limits based on Fermi-LAT data for a large sample of radio-loud MAGNs. We constrain the derived γ-ray luminosity function by means of the source-count distribution of the radio galaxies detected by the Fermi-LAT. We finally calculate the diffuse γ-ray flux due to the whole MAGN population. Our results demonstrate that MAGNs can contribute from 10% up to nearly the entire measured isotropic gamma-ray background. We evaluate a theoretical uncertainty on the flux of almost an order of magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗