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At least 91 records · Page 5

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop: Preprint

Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via technoeconomic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). The ATB data are inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL’s reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the US generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on technoeconomic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next generation technologies such as closed loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.

Annual Technology Baseline↗

Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop

Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via techno-economic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for NREL's Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), which provides inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL's reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the U.S. generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on techno-economic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next-generation technologies such as closed-loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.

annual technology baseline↗

Systems Analysis of the Physiological and Molecular Mechanisms of Sorghum Nitrogen Use Efficiency, Water Use Efficiency and Interactions with the Soil Microbiome (Final Report for DE-SC0014395)

The specific project objectives were to: 1) Conduct deep census surveys of root microbiomes concurrent with phenotypic characterizations of a diverse panel of sorghum genotypes across multiple years to define the microbes associated with the most productive lines under drought and low nitrogen conditions. 2) Associate systems-level genotypic, microbial, and environmental factors with improved sorghum performance using robust statistical approaches. 3) Develop culture collections of sorghum root/leaf associated microbes that recapitulate root-enriched sequences defined in the census. 4) Perform controlled environment experiments for in-depth characterization and hypothesis testing of G sorghum x G microbe x E interactions . Validate physiological mechanisms, map genetic loci for stress tolerance, and determine the persistence of optimal microbial strains under greenhouse and field conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Co-Simulation Meets AI: MCP-Driven Power System Analysis

GridGPT, a fine-tuned Generative AI model is designed for on-premise use in grid control rooms. This presentation will demonstrate how eGridGPT can seamlessly integrate with control room solutions to offer operators, engineers, and corporate users enhanced guidance and decision support. It is to show how this innovative AI solution can improve state estimation, boost variable energy forecasting, and optimize grid operations. By leveraging eGridGPT's unique features, audience will learn to unlock new levels of automation, predictive analytics, and reliability within their power systems, ultimately leading to reduced downtime and improved operational efficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Systems Analysis and Engineering of Biofuel Production in Chromochloris zofingiensis , an Emerging Model Green Alga

As a core component of a sustainable bioeconomy, microalgae have the potential to become a major source of biofuels and bioproducts. These photosynthetic microbes utilize solar energy, grow quickly, consume CO 2 , and can be cultivated on non-arable land. However, there are presently considerable practical limitations in the photosynthetic production of biofuels from microalgae, resulting in low productivity and high costs. Algae are a strikingly diverse group and understudied algae can reveal new opportunities for biofuels. Integrative systems biology and engineering of emerging model systems are needed to expand the possibilities of microbial production of biofuels and bioproducts. Our long-term goal is to design and engineer high-level production of biofuel precursors in microalgae.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Electric Vehicles at Scale - Phase II - Distribution Systems Analysis

The use of electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States has grown significantly during the last decade, posing benefits to the environment but also potential challenges to our grid. To better understand this scenario , the Department of Energy (DOE) asked Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to perform an authoritative study of the impacts of EVs at scale on the electric grid. The Phase I study focused on the bulk power electricity impacts . This EV-at-scale Phase II work addresses key questions of interest to DOE related to the impacts of EV in the distribution systems: 1. When (which year), where, and how many EVs will be adopted and how will they be charged? 2. Given some prospective answers to the above question, what would be the EV hosting capability of a distribution system circuit? 3. How could the hosting capability be expanded to accommodate more EVs and what would be the potential measures and cost? This report documents the methodologies developed as part of this project and provides EV adoption modeling examples using distribution system circuit data provided by industry partner, Southern California Edison (SCE).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Moving toward a framework for electricity and heat equivalence in energy systems analysis

Sustaining, maintaining, and upgrading the electricity grid, while meeting decarbonization goals is a challenge facing policymakers, regulators, grid operators, and investors. Simultaneously meeting demands for future capacity, retiring older inefficient technologies, and addressing externalities from energy production and use requires more diverse and inclusive technologies to avoid constraints and shortfalls in grid capability. Changing the energy production paradigm by encouraging alternative technologies was a key driver for FERC Order 2222. This stimulus for developing new small-scale generation will complement and supplement the existing fleet only if it attracts new investment. This investment must reflect technology that goes beyond the energy-only characteristics of traditional generation, creating systems where suites of energy-equivalent outputs are enhanced by environmental quality benefits and offsets. We use energy system designs to highlight the contribution that measuring and accounting for equivalency values provides net increases in capacity, electricity, and alternative fuels while simultaneously reducing carbon waste impacts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Andes Data Analysis System at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility

Andes is a (704)-node commodity-type Linux® cluster. Each of Andes’s 704 nodes contain two 16-core 3.0 GHz AMD EPYC 7302 processors with AMD’s Simultaneous Multithreading (SMT) Technology and 256GB of main memory. Andes also has nine large memory GPU nodes. These nodes each have 1TB of main memory and two NVIDIA K80 GPUs with two 14-core 2.30 GHz Intel Xeon processors with HT Technology.

AMD EPYC↗

LLRF System Analysis for the Fermilab PIP-II LINAC

Developing long-lived quantum processing units (QPUs) capable of supporting high-fidelity quantum operations is a crucial challenge on the path toward fault-tolerant quantum computing. TESLA-shaped superconducting RF (SRF) cavities, known for photon relaxation times on the order of seconds, provide an excellent foundation for 3D QPUs and quantum memory. This talk presents a novel design that leverages TESLA cavity modes coupled to ancillary transmon qubits, optimized to preserve coherence and control. By carefully engineering the package geometry, optimizing Hamiltonian parameters, and minimizing lossy participation ratios, we achieve photon relaxation times of over 16 ms and 20 ms for the two cavity modes, representing a significant improvement over previous multimode quantum memories. Despite the reduced coupling between the qubit and cavity modes, which is necessary to preserve long lifetimes, the platform supports robust and universal control schemes that are not limited by low coupling strength. We will also discuss how this architecture can lead to scalable, modular quantum computing systems.

Varghese, P. [Fermilab]↗

System Analysis Modeling and Intermodal Transportation for Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel

This is a technical presentation that does not take into account contractual limitations or obligations under the Standard Contract for Disposal of Spent Nuclear Fuel and/or High-Level Radioactive Waste (Standard Contract) (10 CFR Part 961). For example, under the provisions of the Standard Contract, spent nuclear fuel in multi-assembly canisters is not an acceptable waste form, absent a mutually agreed to contract amendment.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Commissioning of Robotic Inspection and Automated Analysis System for Assay of Gas Diffusion Piping - 19500

Robotic, in-pipe, nondestructive assay (NDA) is a revolutionary and important means for measuring, analyzing, and reporting radioactive holdup deposits in enrichment piping. This innovation promises vast advantages for efficiency, safety, and cost savings. Payoff, however, lies in utilization much more than innovation. Crossing that threshold from a technical capability to an everyday tool occurs only after rigorous commissioning, adoption, and infusion. This must meet the highest standard, and there can be no compromise. Certification of a new NDA technology must meet the highest standards for quality, safety, and efficacy. Prior to this work, there was no precedent of procedure and method for certification of a robotic methodology for this purpose. The best of robotics had not certified NDA. The best of NDA had not certified robotics. Hence, a great deal of discovery, resourcefulness, and collaboration contributed to this success. This paper chronicles the first-of-kind chartering, co-development, testing, documentation, and site integration that certified this trailblazing in-pipe, robotic NDA. Commissioning had to demonstrate and certify end-to-end NDA automation from robot traversal to computer analysis to report generation of contaminated process piping at the Portsmouth, Ohio gaseous diffusion facility. This was a rigorous campaign of tests, evaluations, and documentation. Highlights included multiple tests in four elevated pipes exercised the gamut of NDA and robotic capabilities. Each of the four test pipes presented a unique loading of U-235. The tests demonstrated operations in both 30- inch and 42-inch diameter pipes with varying lengths and terminated by a variety of valves and fittings. Tests in a fifth pipe at floor level demonstrated deployment and applicability for pipes at this ground height and robot recognition of another fitting type. All operations, calibration, deployment, auto-reporting, and analysis were handled by Portsmouth site personnel. These tests concluded a series of component-level acceptance tests which certified all constituent technologies and operational features. Test metrics included comparison of reported to ground truth results and assessment of data quality from quality assurance and replicate measurement comparison. Beyond the radiometry associated with any NDA method, this unique commissioning path exercised and evaluated all the robotic features that are intrinsic to automation. These include odometry, geometric modeling, autonomy, remote launch and recovery, and end-to-end data flow. Each of these required verification and certification. These evaluations were first-of-kind for the decommissioning community, requiring innovation and resourcefulness in their own right. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union

The reduction of European Union's pipeline gas imports from Russia as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the EU. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix, prices, and trade flows of different subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure. Moreover, there are also large changes in the volume and geographical distribution of global gas infrastructure capacity additions and stranded assets. Our results show that by significantly reducing demand for natural gas, the EU Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves resilience against a complete and persistent cut-off of Russian pipeline gas. However, further improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts, while bringing climate objectives closer in sight.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Systems analysis of Lipomyces starkeyi during growth on various plant-based sugars

Oleaginous yeasts have received significant attention due to their substantial lipid storage capability. The accumulated lipids can be utilized directly or processed into various bioproducts and biofuels. Lipomyces starkeyi is an oleaginous yeast capable of using multiple plant-based sugars, such as glucose, xylose, and cellobiose. It is, however, a relatively unexplored yeast due to limited knowledge about its physiology. In this study, we have evaluated the growth of L. starkeyi on different sugars and performed transcriptomic and metabolomic analyses to understand the underlying mechanisms of sugar metabolism. Principal component analysis showed clear differences resulting from growth on different sugars. We have further reported various metabolic pathways activated during growth on these sugars. We also observed non-specific regulation in L. starkeyi and have updated the gene annotations for the NRRL Y-11557 strain. Furthermore, this analysis provides a foundation for understanding the metabolism of these plant-based sugars and potentially valuable information to guide the metabolic engineering of L. starkeyi to produce bioproducts and biofuels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Systems Analysis of NADH Dehydrogenase Mutants Reveals Flexibility and Limits of Pseudomonas taiwanensis VLB120’s Metabolism

Obligate aerobic organisms rely on a functional electron transport chain for energy conservation and NADH oxidation. Because of this essential requirement, the genes of this pathway are likely constitutively and highly expressed to avoid a cofactor imbalance and energy shortage under fluctuating environmental conditions. In this work, we investigated the essentiality of the three NADH dehydrogenases of the respiratory chain of the obligate aerobe Pseudomonas taiwanensis VLB120 and the impact of the knockouts of corresponding genes on its physiology and metabolism. While a mutant lacking all three NADH dehydrogenases seemed to be nonviable, the single or double knockout mutant strains displayed no, or only a weak, phenotype. Only the mutant deficient in both type 2 dehydrogenases showed a clear phenotype with biphasic growth behavior and a strongly reduced growth rate in the second phase. In-depth analyses of the metabolism of the generated mutants, including quantitative physiological experiments, transcript analysis, proteomics, and enzyme activity assays revealed distinct responses to type 2 and type 1 dehydrogenase deletions. An overall high metabolic flexibility enables P. taiwanensis to cope with the introduced genetic perturbations and maintain stable phenotypes, likely by rerouting of metabolic fluxes. This metabolic adaptability has implications for biotechnological applications. While the phenotypic robustness is favorable in large-scale applications with inhomogeneous conditions, the possible versatile redirecting of carbon fluxes upon genetic interventions can thwart metabolic engineering efforts. While Pseudomonas has the capability for high metabolic activity and the provision of reduced redox cofactors important for biocatalytic applications, exploitation of this characteristic might be hindered by high, constitutive activity of and, consequently, competition with the NADH dehydrogenases of the respiratory chain. The in-depth analysis of NADH dehydrogenase mutants of Pseudomonas taiwanensis VLB120 presented here provides insight into the phenotypic and metabolic response of this strain to these redox metabolism perturbations. This high degree of metabolic flexibility needs to be taken into account for rational engineering of this promising biotechnological workhorse toward a host with a controlled and efficient supply of redox cofactors for product synthesis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗