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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Daily estimates of the earth's pole position with the Global Positioning System

Daily estimates of the earth's pole position have been obtained with measurements from a worldwide network of GPS receivers, obtained during the three week GIG '91 experiment in January-February 1991. For this short-term study, the GPS based polar motion series agrees with the other space based geodetic techniques (Very Long Baseline Interferometry and Satellite Laser Ranging) to about 0.4 mas rms, after the removal of mean biases of order 1-3 mas. The small error in day-to-day variability is not sensitive to the fiducial strategy used, nor are fiducial sites even necessary for monitoring high frequency pole position variability. The small biases indicate that the applied reference frames of the three geodetic techniques are nearly aligned, that the GPS fiducial errors are small, and that systematic errors in GPS are also small (of order 5 ppb). A well determined reference frame is necessary for monitoring the long-term stability of polar motion and for separating it from other long-term signals such as tectonic motion and internal systematic errors.

Lindqwister, Ulf J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ILRS Analysis Activities After the Adoption of ITRF2020

"The contribution of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) to the most recent realization of the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) was the result of an analysis strategy with two major modifications compared to the operational products: a modeling for stations long-term systematic errors (biases reported in the ILRS Data Handling File) and an updated model of the target signature error (satellite Centre of Mass model). Both refined models were used as input information for the ILRS contribution to the ITRF2020 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2020). Thereafter, the ILRS Analysis Standing Committee (ASC) focused its effort on implementing the new reference frame in its operational products, define a strategy to improve the ongoing monitoring of the systematic errors, compute the ILRS contribution to the planned ITRF2020 update, and to include LARES-2 among the considered satellites for the operational products. The ILRS ASC implemented the ITRF2020/SLRF2020 into all its official operational products (TRF, Earth Orientation Parameters, predicted and combined satellite orbits) and its impact was evaluated. The operational products benefit from the continuous monitoring of the station systematic errors and the frequent updates of the Data Handling File whenever a significant change in the station systematic error is observed. In the future, a change-point detection algorithm, jointly estimating the times and the number of discontinuities, will be implemented to detect potential new discontinuities in the range bias series. The inclusion of LARES-2 among the satellites whose data are operationally analyzed will furtherly increase the robustness of the estimated parameters. Finally, the ILRS ASC activities include the benchmarking of a new analysis center (CNES) which will formally begin its own contribution in 2024."

Satellite Laser Ranging↗
NASA NTRS1975

Some statistical analysis techniques for the effect of systematic instrument errors on the results of measurements in a space experiment

Mathematical models of certain systematic telemetry signal errors arising during the passage of the signal through the recording and transmitting blocks of the physical instruments aboard the spacecraft are classified and constructed. Statistical analysis methods are used to determine the background function and relative sensitivity coefficients of the channels of a charged particle detector. Results are presented. A block diagram for a method taking into account the effect of distortions is given.

Kondakov, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The impact of satellite temperature soundings on the forecasts of a small national meteorological service

The impact of introducing satellite temperature sounding data on a numerical weather prediction model of a national weather service is evaluated. A dry five level, primitive equation model which covers most of the Northern Hemisphere, is used for these experiments. Series of parallel forecast runs out to 48 hours are made with three different sets of initial conditions: (1) NOSAT runs, only conventional surface and upper air observations are used; (2) SAT runs, satellite soundings are added to the conventional data over oceanic regions and North Africa; and (3) ALLSAT runs, the conventional upper air observations are replaced by satellite soundings over the entire model domain. The impact on the forecasts is evaluated by three verification methods: the RMS errors in sea level pressure forecasts, systematic errors in sea level pressure forecasts, and errors in subjective forecasts of significant weather elements for a selected portion of the model domain. For the relatively short range of the present forecasts, the major beneficial impacts on the sea level pressure forecasts are found precisely in those areas where the satellite sounding are inserted and where conventional upper air observations are sparse. The RMS and systematic errors are reduced in these regions. The subjective forecasts of significant weather elements are improved with the use of the satellite data. It is found that the ALLSAT forecasts are of a quality comparable to the SAR forecasts.

Wolfson, N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Improved Systematic Pointing Error Model for the DSN Antennas

New pointing models have been developed for large reflector antennas whose construction is founded on elevation over azimuth mount. At JPL, the new models were applied to the Deep Space Network (DSN) 34-meter antenna s subnet for corrections of their systematic pointing errors; it achieved significant improvement in performance at Ka-band (32-GHz) and X-band (8.4-GHz). The new models provide pointing improvements relative to the traditional models by a factor of two to three, which translate to approximately 3-dB performance improvement at Ka-band. For radio science experiments where blind pointing performance is critical, the new innovation provides a new enabling technology. The model extends the traditional physical models with higher-order mathematical terms, thereby increasing the resolution of the model for a better fit to the underlying systematic imperfections that are the cause of antenna pointing errors. The philosophy of the traditional model was that all mathematical terms in the model must be traced to a physical phenomenon causing antenna pointing errors. The traditional physical terms are: antenna axis tilts, gravitational flexure, azimuth collimation, azimuth encoder fixed offset, azimuth and elevation skew, elevation encoder fixed offset, residual refraction, azimuth encoder scale error, and antenna pointing de-rotation terms for beam waveguide (BWG) antennas. Besides the addition of spherical harmonics terms, the new models differ from the traditional ones in that the coefficients for the cross-elevation and elevation corrections are completely independent and may be different, while in the traditional model, some of the terms are identical. In addition, the new software allows for all-sky or mission-specific model development, and can utilize the previously used model as an a priori estimate for the development of the updated models.

Rochblatt, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Quantifying Errors in TRMM-Based Multi-Sensor QPE Products Over Land in Preparation for GPM

Determining uncertainties in satellite-based multi-sensor quantitative precipitation estimates over land of fundamental importance to both data producers and hydro climatological applications. ,Evaluating TRMM-era products also lays the groundwork and sets the direction for algorithm and applications development for future missions including GPM. QPE uncertainties result mostly from the interplay of systematic errors and random errors. In this work, we will synthesize our recent results quantifying the error characteristics of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Both systematic errors and total uncertainties have been analyzed for six different TRMM-era precipitation products (3B42, 3B42RT, CMORPH, PERSIANN, NRL and GSMap). For systematic errors, we devised an error decomposition scheme to separate errors in precipitation estimates into three independent components, hit biases, missed precipitation and false precipitation. This decomposition scheme reveals hydroclimatologically-relevant error features and provides a better link to the error sources than conventional analysis, because in the latter these error components tend to cancel one another when aggregated or averaged in space or time. For the random errors, we calculated the measurement spread from the ensemble of these six quasi-independent products, and thus produced a global map of measurement uncertainties. The map yields a global view of the error characteristics and their regional and seasonal variations, reveals many undocumented error features over areas with no validation data available, and provides better guidance to global assimilation of satellite-based precipitation data. Insights gained from these results and how they could help with GPM will be highlighted.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Microwave Resonator Measurements of Atmospheric Absorption Coefficients: A Preliminary Design Study

A preliminary design study examined the feasibility of using microwave resonator measurements to improve the accuracy of atmospheric absorption coefficients and refractivity between 18 and 35 GHz. Increased accuracies would improve the capability of water vapor radiometers to correct for radio signal delays caused by Earth's atmosphere. Calibration of delays incurred by radio signals traversing the atmosphere has applications to both deep space tracking and planetary radio science experiments. Currently, the Cassini gravity wave search requires 0.8-1.0% absorption coefficient accuracy. This study examined current atmospheric absorption models and estimated that current model accuracy ranges from 5% to 7%. The refractivity of water vapor is known to 1% accuracy, while the refractivity of many dry gases (oxygen, nitrogen, etc.) are known to better than 0.1%. Improvements to the current generation of models will require that both the functional form and absolute absorption of the water vapor spectrum be calibrated and validated. Several laboratory techniques for measuring atmospheric absorption and refractivity were investigated, including absorption cells, single and multimode rectangular cavity resonators, and Fabry-Perot resonators. Semi-confocal Fabry-Perot resonators were shown to provide the most cost-effective and accurate method of measuring atmospheric gas refractivity. The need for accurate environmental measurement and control was also addressed. A preliminary design for the environmental control and measurement system was developed to aid in identifying significant design issues. The analysis indicated that overall measurement accuracy will be limited by measurement errors and imprecise control of the gas sample's thermodynamic state, thermal expansion and vibration- induced deformation of the resonator structure, and electronic measurement error. The central problem is to identify systematic errors because random errors can be reduced by averaging. Calibrating the resonator measurements by checking the refractivity of dry gases which are known to better than 0.1% provides a method of controlling the systematic errors to 0.1%. The primary source of error in absorptivity and refractivity measurements is thus the ability to measure the concentration of water vapor in the resonator path. Over the whole thermodynamic range of interest the accuracy of water vapor measurement is 1.5%. However, over the range responsible for most of the radio delay (i.e. conditions in the bottom two kilometers of the atmosphere) the accuracy of water vapor measurements ranges from 0.5% to 1.0%. Therefore the precision of the resonator measurements could be held to 0.3% and the overall absolute accuracy of resonator-based absorption and refractivity measurements will range from 0.6% to 1.

Walter, Steven J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of systematic redshift errors on the cross-correlation of the Lyman-α forest with quasars at small scales using DESI Early Data

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will measure millions of quasar spectra by the end of its 5 year survey. Quasar redshift errors impact the shape of the Lyman-α forest correlation functions, which can affect cosmological analyses and therefore cosmological interpretations. Here, using data from the DESI Early Data Release and the first two months of the main survey, we measure the systematic redshift error from an offset in the cross-correlation of the Lyman-α forest with quasars. We find evidence for a redshift dependent bias causing redshifts to be underestimated with increasing redshift, stemming from improper modeling of the Lyman-α optical depth in the templates used for redshift estimation. New templates were derived for the DESI Year 1 quasar sample at z > 1.6 and we found the redshift dependent bias, Δr ∥ , increased from -1.94 ± 0.15 h -1 Mpc to -0.08 ± 0.04 h -1 Mpc (-205 ± 15 km s -1 to -9.0 ± 4.0 km s -1 ). These new templates will be used to provide redshifts for the DESI Year 1 quasar sample.

Lyman alpha forest↗
NASA NTRS2011

Filtering Methods for Error Reduction in Spacecraft Attitude Estimation Using Quaternion Star Trackers

Precision attitude determination for recent and planned space missions typically includes quaternion star trackers (ST) and a three-axis inertial reference unit (IRU). Sensor selection is based on estimates of knowledge accuracy attainable from a Kalman filter (KF), which provides the optimal solution for the case of linear dynamics with measurement and process errors characterized by random Gaussian noise with white spectrum. Non-Gaussian systematic errors in quaternion STs are often quite large and have an unpredictable time-varying nature, particularly when used in non-inertial pointing applications. Two filtering methods are proposed to reduce the attitude estimation error resulting from ST systematic errors, 1) extended Kalman filter (EKF) augmented with Markov states, 2) Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) with a periodic measurement model. Realistic assessments of the attitude estimation performance gains are demonstrated with both simulation and flight telemetry data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Calhoun, Philip C.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The QUIET Instrument

The Q/U Imaging ExperimenT (QUIET) is designed to measure polarization in the Cosmic Microwave Background, targeting the imprint of inflationary gravitational waves at large angular scales ( approx 1 deg.) . Between 2008 October and 2010 December, two independent receiver arrays were deployed sequentially on a 1.4 m side-fed Dragonian telescope. The polarimeters which form the focal planes use a highly compact design based on High Electron Mobility Transistors (HEMTs) that provides simultaneous measurements of the Stokes parameters Q, U, and I in a single module. The 17-element Q-band polarimeter array, with a central frequency of 43.1 GHz, has the best sensitivity (69 micro Ks(exp 1/2)) and the lowest instrumental systematic errors ever achieved in this band, contributing to the tensor-to-scalar ratio at r < 0.1. The 84-element W-band polarimeter array has a sensitivity of 87 micro Ks(exp 1/2) at a central frequency of 94.5 GHz. It has the lowest systematic errors to date, contributing at r < 0.01 (QUIET Collaboration 2012) The two arrays together cover multipoles in the range l approximately equals 25-975 . These are the largest HEMT-ba.sed arrays deployed to date. This article describes the design, calibration, performance of, and sources of systematic error for the instrument,

Gaier, T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Investigation Into Possible Systematic Effects on Neutron Star Radius Estimates using NICER-like Synthetic Data

Neutron star cores contain the densest matter in the observable universe. The state of this matter is of interest in numerous fields, but laboratory experiments cannot explore this matter. Although the composition of the matter would be of great interest, macroscopic observables such as the neutron star mass-radius relation depend primarily on the equation of state (EOS). As a result, precise and reliable radius measurements would be valuable in constraining the EOS. However, most attempts at radius measurements are susceptible to systematic errors, meaning the inferred radius can be significantly biased even though the fit to the data appears to be statistically good. Previous studies suggested that radii inferred using X-ray data provided by NASA’s NICER mission may be more immune from such systematic errors. This is in part because, compared with previous measurements that obtained averaged spectra and fluxes, NICER observes millisecond pulsars by timing the photons so precisely, it is possible to obtain the spectrum as a function of rotational phase and see variations such as heated regions on the star rotate into and out of view hundreds of times per second. This extra information seems promising to break degeneracies and mitigate systematic errors, but a more in-depth study is necessary. We report the first steps of that study, in which we generate NICER-like synthetic data and determine the quality of fit and bias in radius obtained when we fit the data using a model different from the model used to generate the data.

Isiah Holt↗
NASA NTRS1994

Reanalysis of X-ray emission from M87. 2: The multiphase medium

In a previous paper, we showed that a single-phase model for the gas around M87 simultaneously explained most available X-ray data. Total enclosed masses derived from the model, however, fell well below the determinations from optical measurements. In this paper, we consider possible solutions to the inconsistency, including two multiphase medium models for the gas and the consequences of systematic errors of the Einstein Focal Point Crystal Spectrometer (FPCS). First, we find that when constraints from optical mass determinations are not considered, the best-fit model to the X-ray data is always the single-phase model. Multiphase models or consideration of FPCS systematic errors are required only when optical mass constraints are included. We find that the cooling time model of White & Sarazin adequately explains the available X-ray data and predicts total masses which agree with optical measurements. An ad hoc power-law multiphase does not. This shows both that the existence of mass dropping out of the ambient phase is consistent with the data and that the cooling-time model gives a reasonable parameterization of the dropout rate. Our derived mass accretion rate is similar to previous determinations. The implications of this result for cluster mass determinations in general are discussed. We then consider 'self absorbing' models where we assume that material dropping out of the ambient medium goes completely into X-ray absorbing gas. The resulting internal absorption is small compared to Galactic absorption at most radii. The models are therefore indistinguishable from models with only Galactic absorption. We finally show that it is alternatively possible to simultaneously fit optical mass measurements and X-ray data with a single-phase model if some of the observed FPCS line fluxes are too high by the maximum systematic error. This possiblity can be checked with new data from satellites such as ASCA.

Tsai, John C.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Baryon acoustic oscillation theory and modelling systematics for the DESI 2024 results

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of how fitting of baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) is carried out within the upcoming Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument’s (DESI) 2024 results using its DR1 data set, and the associated systematic error budget from theory and modelling of the BAO. We derive new results showing how non-linearities in the clustering of galaxies can cause potential biases in measurements of the isotropic (⁠α iso ⁠) and anisotropic (⁠α ap ) BAO distance scales, and how these can be effectively removed with an appropriate choice of reconstruction algorithm. We then demonstrate how theory leads to a clear choice for how to model the BAO and develop, implement, and validate a new model for the remaining smooth-broad-band (i.e. without BAO) component of the galaxy clustering. Finally, we explore the impact of all remaining modelling choices on the BAO constraints from DESI using a suite of high-precision simulations, arriving at a set of best practices for DESI BAO fits, and an associated theory and modelling systematic error. Overall, our results demonstrate the remarkable robustness of the BAO to all our modelling choices and motivate a combined theory and modelling systematic error contribution to the post-reconstruction DESI BAO measurements of no more than 0.1 per cent (0.2 per cent) for its isotropic (anisotropic) distance measurements. We expect the theory and best practices laid out to here to be applicable to other BAO experiments in the era of DESI and beyond.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1987

Determination of total ozone from HIRS2/MSU sounding data

The total ozone fields computed from the High Resolution Infrared Sounder 2/Microwave Sounding Unit (HIRS2/MSU) are somewhat noisy compared to Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) results and show latitude dependent systematic errors which vary slowly in time. Researchers used systematic errors from previous time periods to correct the HIRS2 soundings. Comparison of fields of HIRS2 and TOMS derived ozone are shown. Results are encouraging and indicate useful soundings of total O sub 3 burden can be done at night and in the polar winter. Ideally, joint infrared, microwave, and ultraviolet systems should be flown on low Earth orbiting and geostationary satellites to best utilize the complementary nature of the observations.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2000

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters From The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Thermal Bremsstrahlung

We discuss the possibility of constraining cosmological parameters using the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect and thermal bremsstrahlung caused by intra-cluster gas in clusters of galaxies. The new generation of X-ray satellites and ground based interferometers dedicated to SZ observations will enable one to reduce uncertainties in these measurements, and thus make this method potentially quite promising in the near future. The importance of this method is that, unlike most other methods, it is based on physical principles, no 'standard candles' or 'rulers' needed. We estimate the accuracy achievable in the determination of the matter density, OMEGA(sub m), the cosmological constant, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and the Hubble constant, h, using the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance derived from observations in the near future. We demonstrate that constraints from the angular diameter distance are orthogonal to those from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations in the parameter space defined by OMEGA(sub m), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and h. Assuming a statistical error of five percent in the angular diameter distance for each cluster in a sample of five hundred clusters, we show that the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance combined with constraints from CMB fluctuations can put stringent constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.03), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.03) and h (+/- 0.03, 3(sigma) errors). We also show that, with as few as 50 clusters between redshifts 0.01 and 1.5 with an assumed 10% statistical error in the angular diameter distance determination, one can distinguish between models with zero cosmological constant and spatially flat models with a cosmological constant with high confidence level (independently from the supernova results) and put meaningful constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.01), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.01) and h (+/- 0.01, 3(sigma) errors). With the expected advances in observational technology, we will be limited by systematic errors. We discuss the sources of systematic errors and how they can be reduced.

Molnar, S. M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Stereoscopic Analysis of STEREO/SECCHI Data for CME Trajectory Determination

The Sun Earth Connection Coronal and Heliospheric Investigation (SECCHI) coronagraphs on the twin Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) spacecraft provide simultaneous views of the corona and coronal mass ejections from two view points. Here, we analyze simultaneous image pairs using the technique of tie-pointing and triangulation (T&T) to determine the three-dimensional trajectory of seven coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The bright leading edge of a CME seen in coronagraph images results from line-of-sight integration through the CME front; the two STEREO coronagraphs see different apparent leading edges, leading to a systematic error in its three-dimensional reconstruction. We analyze this systematic error using a simple geometric model of a CME front. We validate the technique and analysis by comparing T&T trajectory determinations for seven CMEs with trajectories determined by Thernisien et al. (2009) using a forward modeling technique not susceptible to this systematic effect.

CORONAGRAPHS↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Error Distribution of BATSE GRB Location

We develop empirical probability models for BATSE GRB location errors by a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the InterPlanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 394 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 20 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4B (rev) BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the locations in a 'core' term with a systematic error of 1.85 degrees and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.36 degrees, implying a 68% confidence region for bursts with negligible statistical errors of 2.3 degrees. There is some evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE datatype that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT datatype, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence region for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical errors is 2.0 degrees.

Briggs, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Error Distribution of BATSE Gamma-Ray Burst Locations

Empirical probability models for BATSE gamma-ray burst (GRB) location errors are developed via a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the Interplanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 392 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 19 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4Br BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the probability in a "core" term with a systematic error of 1.85 deg and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.1 deg, which implies a 68% confidence radius for bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties of 2.2 deg. There is evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE data type that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT data type, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence radius for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical uncertainties is 2.0 deg.

Briggs, Michael S.↗