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At least 91 records · Page 5

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗

Geological applications of multipolarization SAR data

Spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data acquired by SEASAT and the Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-A/B) operating at L-band with HH polarization were found to be useful in conjunction with other sensors for lithologic discrimination in arid environments with limited vegetation cover. In order to assess the utility of more advanced sensors for geologic research and define the unique contributions each sensor makes, remote sensing data were collected over the Deadman Butte area of the Wind River Basin, Wyoming. The Wind River Basin is an asymmetric sedimentary basin in central Wyoming created during the early Eocene Laramide orogeny. The stratigraphic section of the Deadman Butte study area, which was measured by Woodward is made up of Paleozoic and Mesozoic marine shales, siltstones, limestones, and sandstones. Sensor systems included LANDSAT 4 Thematic Mapper (TM), Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) and the Multipolarization, L-band airborne SAR, a prototype for the next Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-C). Sensor parameters are given.

Evans, Diane L.↗

Mapping Inundation from Hurricane Florence (2018) with L-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar, Commercial Imagery, and Ancillary Data via Machine Learning Classification

During and after flooding events, mapping the extent of floodwaters aids in the distribution of resources, recovery efforts, and damage assessment practices. Development of a land cover classification system focused on mapping inundation after major hurricane events using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data could allow for the production of near-real-time inundation mapping, enabling government and emergency response entities to get a preliminary idea of a developing situation. Complimentary optical and SAR images from domestic and foreign entities are brought together through activations of the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters to support response efforts, from true-color, near-infrared, and thermal remote sensing data obtained by NASA, NOAA, and international satellites to the collection of high-resolution true color aerial photography by NOAA and the National Geodetic Survey. In response to Hurricane Florence of 2018, NASA JPL collected numerous swaths of quad-pol L-band SAR data with the Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar (UAVSAR) instrument observing the record-setting river stages across North and South Carolina. The resulting fully-polarized SAR images allow for mapping of inundation extent at a high spatial resolution with a unique advantage over optical imaging stemming from the sensor’s ability to penetrate cloud cover and dense vegetation. In this study, true-color NOAA aerial and commercial satellite imagery are used in conjunction with four UAVSAR data swaths centered on the Lumberton and Cape Fear River basins in southeastern North Carolina to develop a Random Forest classification model focused on mapping open water and floodwater otherwise obscured by vegetation or lingering cloud cover. Ancillary building footprint, transportation route, and population data will also be incorporated into the classification scheme to estimate the societal impacts of flooding based on the proximity of features to detected inundation. Preliminary results from the Hurricane Florence case study will be discussed in addition to the limitations of available validation data for assessment of the classifier’s accuracy.

Alexander M Melancon↗

Assessing mechanical response of CO 2 storage into a depleted carbonate reef using a site-scale geomechanical model calibrated with field tests and InSAR monitoring data

Geomechanical risks of injection have raised concerns regarding secure CO 2 storage. In this work, a combined monitoring and modeling approach is used to assess the stress changes and surface uplift associated with CO 2 injection into a depleted carbonate reef of the Michigan basin. A site-scale geomechanical model is built by assigning mechanical properties of formations using well-log and experimental data. Gravity load is applied to the model to estimate the vertical component of stress as well as different lateral boundary displacement scenarios to estimate horizontal stresses. We used a poroelastic pressure-dependent model (instead of a linear elastic mechanical earth model) to calibrate initial stresses using hydraulic fracture test data measured at depleted reservoir status. Multi-phase fluid flow-geomechanical simulations are performed to estimate the poroelastic response during (1) primary depletion (2) field-scale CO 2 injection phase (3) a hypothetical forecast scenario in which well bottom hole pressure (BHP) reach 45000 KPa. The predicted surface uplift is less than 1 mm at the end of the field-scale CO 2 injection phase which is in good agreement with Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) uplift measurement. Although the InSAR data shows an insignificant uplift, hydromechanical modeling of injection shows that CO 2 injection still causes reservoir deformation emphasizing the role of carbonate overburden and reservoir formation mechanical properties and limited size of reef on diminishing the surface deformation. Modeling indicates poroelastic response of caprock matters to estimate uplift. The lower permeability of the top two layers provides additional barrier to large uplift. Also, history of subsidence due to production should be accounted to predict uplift due to a follow up injection correctly. This report shows the significance of combining a calibrated geomechanical model with field measured stresses and monitoring data to be used as a tool to ensure the safety of CO 2 storage.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Real-time deep-learning inversion of seismic full waveform data for CO 2 saturation and uncertainty in geological carbon storage monitoring

Deep-learning inversion has recently drawn attention in geological carbon storage research due to its potential of imaging and monitoring carbon storage in real time, significantly improving efficiency and safety of carbon storage operations. We present a deep-learning full waveform inversion method that after the neural network has been trained can image CO 2 saturation and its uncertainty in real time. Our deep-learning inversion method is based on the U-Net architecture with the neural network trained on pairs of synthetic seismic data and CO 2 saturation models. Accordingly, our training establishes a mapping relationship between seismic data and CO 2 saturation models and once fully trained directly estimates CO 2 saturation as a function of subsurface location. We further quantify uncertainties of CO 2 saturation estimates using the Monte Carlo dropout method and a bootstrap aggregating method. For this proof-of-concept study, the CO 2 training models and data are derived from the Kimberlina 1.2 model, a hypothetical 3D geological carbon storage model that is constructed based on various geological and hydrological data from the Southern San Joaquin Basin, California. We perform deep-learning inversion experiments using noise-free and noisy training and test data sets and compare the results. Our modelling experiments show that (1) the deep-learning inversion can estimate 2D distributions of CO 2 fairly well even in the presence of Gaussian random noise and (2) both CO 2 saturation imaging and uncertainty quantification can be done in real time. Our results suggest that the deep-learning inversion method can serve as a robust real-time monitoring tool for geological carbon storage and/or other time-varying reservoir/aquifer properties that result from injection, extraction, and/or other subsurface transport phenomena.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Tropospheric Correction for InSAR Using Interpolated ECMWF Data and GPS Zenith Total Delay

To mitigate atmospheric errors caused by the troposphere, which is a limiting error source for spaceborne interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) imaging, a tropospheric correction method has been developed using data from the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Global Positioning System (GPS). The ECMWF data was interpolated using a Stretched Boundary Layer Model (SBLM), and ground-based GPS estimates of the tropospheric delay from the Southern California Integrated GPS Network were interpolated using modified Gaussian and inverse distance weighted interpolations. The resulting Zenith Total Delay (ZTD) correction maps have been evaluated, both separately and using a combination of the two data sets, for three short-interval InSAR pairs from Envisat during 2006 on an area stretching from northeast from the Los Angeles basin towards Death Valley. Results show that the root mean square (rms) in the InSAR images was greatly reduced, meaning a significant reduction in the atmospheric noise of up to 32 percent. However, for some of the images, the rms increased and large errors remained after applying the tropospheric correction. The residuals showed a constant gradient over the area, suggesting that a remaining orbit error from Envisat was present. The orbit reprocessing in ROI_pac and the plane fitting both require that the only remaining error in the InSAR image be the orbit error. If this is not fulfilled, the correction can be made anyway, but it will be done using all remaining errors assuming them to be orbit errors. By correcting for tropospheric noise, the biggest error source is removed, and the orbit error becomes apparent and can be corrected for

Webb, Frank H.↗

Mapping Near-Surface Salinization Using Long-wavelength AIRSAR

In May 1999, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory acquired airborne synthetic aperture radar (AIRSAR) data over the Hatchel and Montague Test Sites in Texas. We analyzed P- and L-band polarimetric radar data from these AIRSAR missions to assess whether AIRSAR could be used as a rapid and remote platform for screening large areas at risk for near-surface soil and water salinization. Ongoing geological, geophysical, and hydrological studies at the Hatchel Test Site in Runnels County and the Montague Test Site in Montague County have demonstrated the utility of high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (EM) induction in mapping electrical conductivity changes that accompany shallow natural and oil-field related salinization at these sites in the Colorado and Red River basins. We compared AIRSAR and airborne EM data quantitatively by (1) selecting representative flight lines from airborne EM surveys of the Hatchel and Montague sites, (2) extracting measurement locations and apparent conductivities at the highest available EM frequency, (3) identifying and extracting all P- and L-band backscatter intensities for all locations within 5 m of an airborne EM measurement, and (4) examining the spatial and magnitude relationships between apparent conductivity and all radar polarization and polarization-ratio combinations. For both test sites, backscatter intensity in all individual P- and L-band polarizations was slightly negatively correlated with apparent conductivity. In most modes this was manifested as a decrease in the range and magnitude of backscatter intensity as apparent conductivity increased. Select single-band and cross-band polarization ratios exhibited somewhat higher correlation with apparent conductivity by partly diminishing the dominance of the vegetation contribution to V backscatter intensity. The highest correlation with conductivity was obtained using the L-band vertical- to cross-polarization ratio, the P-band vertical- to L-band cross-polarization ratio, and the P-band vertical-to cross-polarization ratio. These correlations were higher for the more arid (and less electrically conductive) Hatchel Test Site than they were for the Montague Test Site.

Paine, Jeffery G.↗

Modeling Antarctic Subglacial Lake Filling and Drainage Cycles

The growth and drainage of active subglacial lakes in Antarctica has previously been inferred from analysis of ice surface altimetry data. We use a subglacial hydrology model applied to a synthetic Antarctic ice stream to examine internal controls on the filling and drainage of subglacial lakes. Our model outputs suggest that the highly constricted subglacial environment of our idealized ice stream, combined with relatively high rates of water flow funneled from a large catchment, can combine to create a system exhibiting slow-moving pressure waves. Over a period of years, the accumulation of water in the ice stream onset region results in a buildup of pressure creating temporary channels, which then evacuate the excess water. This increased flux of water beneath the ice stream drives lake growth. As the water body builds up, it steepens the hydraulic gradient out of the overdeepened lake basin and allows greater flux. Eventually this flux is large enough to melt channels that cause the lake to drain. Lake drainage also depends on the internal hydrological development in the wider system and therefore does not directly correspond to a particular water volume or depth. This creates a highly temporally and spatially variable system, which is of interest for assessing the importance of subglacial lakes in ice stream hydrology and dynamics.

drainage↗

Impact of Anthropogenic Activity, Climate Change, and Urbanization on Wetland Habitat in the Platte River Basin​

The Platte River Basin (PRB) is a dynamic ecosystem where wetlands play a pivotal role as essential habitats for various flora and fauna, including local and migratory birds. It provides many crucial ecosystem services that benefit humans directly and indirectly. However, anthropogenic activity, climate change, and urbanization have resulted in decline in wildlife habitat, elevated flood risk, and wetland loss. To address this issue, NASA DEVELOP partnered with Audubon Great Plains (AGP) to address the vital habitats within urban areas to protect bird species, reduce flood hazards, and analyze the potential impact of future development on wetlands. We utilized remotely sensed data from Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI), and Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) to assess land use and land cover (LULC) change. Nighttime lights data from Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) as well as NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC) population data were also used as inputs to simulate urban growth potential up to 2050 using the open-source FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation (FUTURES) model. A broad scale analysis across 13 focal cities showed varied changes in land use patterns across the PRB, with the most notable being a decrease in agricultural land coverage and an increase in vegetation and grassland coverage. We overlaid a flood extent map with the LULC classifications in Grand Island to identify possible restoration sites under AGP’s Urban Woods and Prairies Initiative. The results for two proposed scenarios showed that at least 51 counties out of 81 in the PRB would experience growth by year 2050. The first scenario (all wetlands are protected) showed that there will be no loss of wetlands by 2050. However, the second scenario (no wetlands are protected) showed a decrease in wetland area and loss of habitat for bird conservation. The results will help AGP to lead awareness workshops for communities about wetland protection and to form impactful conservation strategies in the future.​

Nancee Uniyal↗

Cenozoic extension and magmatism in Arizona

The Basin and Range Province of Arizona was the site of two episodes of Cenozoic extension that can be distinguished on the basis of timing, direction and style of extension, and associated magmatism. The first episode of extension occurred during Oligocene to mid-Miocene time and resulted in the formation of low-angle detachment faults, ductile shear zones (metamorphic core complexes), and regional domains of tilted fault blocks. Evidence for extreme middle Tertiary crustal extension in a NE to SW to SW to ENE to WSW direction has been recognized in various parts of the Basin and Range of Arizona, especially in the Lake Mead area and along the belf of metamorphic core complexes that crosses southern Arizona from Parker to Tucson. New geologic mapping and scrutiny of published geologic maps indicates that significant middle Tertiary extension is more widely distributed than previously thought. The state can be subdivided into regional tilt-block domains in which middle Tertiary rocks dip consistently in one direction. The dip direction in any tilt-block domain is generally toward the breakaway of a low-angle detachment fault that underlies the tilt-block domain; we interpret this an indicating that normal faults in the upper plate of a detechment fault are generally synthetic, rather than antithetic, with respect to the detachment fault.

Reynolds, S. J.↗

Validation of seismic velocity models in southern California with full-waveform simulations

SUMMARY Crustal seismic velocity models provide essential information for many applications including earthquake source properties, simulations of ground motion and related derivative products. We present a systematic workflow for assessing the accuracy of velocity models with full-waveform simulations. The framework is applied to four regional seismic velocity models for southern California: CVM-H15.11, CVM-S4.26, CVM-S4.26.M01 that includes a shallow geotechnical layer, and the model of Berg et al. For each model, we perform 3-D viscoelastic wave propagation simulations for 48 virtual seismic noise sources (down to 2 s) and 44 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (down to 2 s generally and 0.5 s for some cases) assuming a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s–1. The synthetic waveforms are compared with observations associated with both earthquake records and noise cross-correlation data sets. We measure, at multiple period bands for well-isolated seismic phases, traveltime delays and normalized zero-lag cross-correlation coefficients between the synthetic and observed data. The obtained measurements are summarized using the mean absolute derivation of time delay and the mean correlation coefficient. These two metrics provide reliable statistical representations of model quality with consistent results in all data sets. In addition to assessing the overall (average) performance of different models in the entire study area, we examine spatial variations of the models’ quality. All examined models show good phase and waveform agreements for surface waves at periods longer than 5 s, and discrepancies at shorter periods reflecting small-scale heterogeneities and near-surface structures. The model performing best overall is CVM-S4.26.M01. The largest misfits for both body and surface waves are in basin structures and around large fault zones. Inaccuracies generated in these areas may affect tomography and model simulation results at other regions. The seismic velocity models for southern California can be improved by adding better resolved structural representations of the shallow crust and volumes around the main faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

PRISM3D: a 3-D reference seismic model for Iberia and adjacent areas

SUMMARY We present PRISM3D, a 3-D reference seismic model of P- and S-wave velocities for Iberia and adjacent areas. PRISM3D results from the combination of the most up-to-date earth models available for the region. It extends horizontally from 15°W to 5°E in longitude, 34°N to 46°N in latitude and vertically from 3.5 km above to 200 km below sea level, and is modelled on a regular grid with 10 and 0.5 km of grid node spacing in the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. It was designed using models inferred from local and teleseismic body-wave tomography, earthquake and ambient noise surface wave tomography, receiver function analysis and active source experiments. It includes two interfaces, namely the topography/bathymetry and the Mohorovičić (Moho) discontinuity. The Moho was modelled from previously published receiver function analysis and deep seismic sounding results. To that end we used a probabilistic surface reconstruction algorithm that allowed to extract the mean of the Moho depth surface along with its associated standard deviation, which provides a depth uncertainty estimate. The Moho depth model is in good agreement with previously published models, although it presents slightly sharper gardients in orogenic areas such as the Pyrenees or the Betic-Rif system. Crustal and mantle P- and S-wave wave speed grids were built separately on each side of the Moho depth surface by weighted average of existing models, thus allowing to realistically render the speed gradients across that interface. The associated weighted standard deviation was also calculated, which provides an uncertainty estimation on the average wave speed values at any point of the grid. At shallow depths (<10 km), low P and S wave speeds and high VP/VS are observed in offshore basins, while the Iberian Massif, which covers a large part of western Iberia, appears characterized by a rather flat Moho, higher than average VP and VS and low VP/VS. Conversely, the Betic-Rif system seems to be associated with low VP and VS, combined with high VP/VS in comparison to the rest of the study area. The most prominent feature of the mantle is the well known high wave speed anomaly related to the Alboran slab imaged in various mantle tomography studies. The consistency of PRISM3D with previous work is verified by comparing it with two recent studies, with which it shows a good general agreement.The impact of the new 3-D model is illustrated through a simple synthetic experiment, which shows that the lateral variations of the wave speed can produce traveltime differences ranging from –1.5 and 1.5 s for P waves and from –2.5 and 2.5 s for S waves at local to regional distances. Such values are far larger than phase picking uncertainties and would likely affect earthquake hypocentral parameter estimations. The new 3-D model thus provides a basis for regional studies including earthquake source studies, Earth structure investigations and geodynamic modelling of Iberia and its surroundings.

Arroucau, P.↗

Science-informed Machine Learning to Increase Recovery Efficiency in Unconventional Reservoirs

Production of hydrocarbons from fractured, unconventional reservoirs is inherently inefficient. But machine learning offers a pathway both to increasing recovery efficiency at a site and to improving forecasts of production, thereby improving the economics of operations in unconventional reservoirs. Los Alamos—in partnership with DOE, NETL, and WVU—has been developing a science-informed workflow and platform for optimizing pressure-drawdown at a site, which will allow an operator to make reservoir-management decisions that optimize recovery in consideration of future production. This work relies on a hybridization of physics-based prediction and machine learning, whereby accurate synthetic data (in combination with available site data) can enable the application of machine learning methods for rapid forecasting and optimization. The physics-based prediction is built upon experimental and theoretical work to determine transport characteristics in shale at various scales, with an emphasis on materials from MSEEL-I; this fundamental shale R&D was conducted in partnership with DOE, NETL, and several other national labs. This work has resulted from a coordinated leveraging of developments across several projects within DOE FE30, along with internal investments from Los Alamos via LDRD. The development has utilized data from the MSEEL–I site for calibration and demonstration; however, the workflow and platform are readily extendable to operations at other sites, plays, and basins. This machine-learning method can aid operators to improve both recovery efficiency and competitiveness; to this end, future work would quantify processes for other plays/basins and integrate production details with economics.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Active tectonics in southern Xinjiang, China: Analysis of terrace riser and normal fault scarp degradation along the Hotan-Qira fault system

The northern piedmont of the western Kunlun mountains (Xinjiang, China) is marked at its easternmost extremity, south of the Hotan-Qira oases, by a set of normal faults trending N50E for nearly 70 km. Conspicuous on Landsat and SPOT images, these faults follow the southeastern border of a deep flexural basin and may be related to the subsidence of the Tarim platform loaded by the western Kunlun northward overthrust. The Hotan-Qira normal fault system vertically offsets the piedmont slope by 70 m. Highest fault scarps reach 20 m and often display evidence for recent reactivations about 2 m high. Successive stream entrenchments in uplifted footwallls have formed inset terraces. We have leveled topographic profiles across fault scarps and transverse abandoned terrace risers. The state of degradation of each terrace edge has been characterized by a degradation coefficient tau, derived by comparison with analytical erosion models. Edges of highest abandoned terraces yield a degradation coefficient of 33 +/- 4 sq.m. Profiles of cumulative fault scarps have been analyzed in a similar way using synthetic profiles generated with a simple incremental fault scarp model.

Avouac, Jean-Philippe↗

Elucidating and predicting the dynamic evolution of water and land systems due to natural and energy-related forcings

Focal Area(s): 3. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI; & 1. Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, unsupervised learning (including deep learning), and hardware-related efforts involving AI (e.g., edge computing). Science Challenge: Interactions between water, land, and energy systems are complex and occur on a variety of scales, ranging from local to basinal to regional. Accurately predicting the behavior of ground water and surface water systems for 5-10 years and beyond requires an understanding of the current system and the ability to model both the natural system at scale and human-induced forcings related to energy and other activities. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) combined with modern compilation and integration efforts for U.S. groundwater and surface water systems present potential solutions to bolstering detailed physics-based models of these systems. Big data tied with ML and physics-based modeling can drive breakthroughs in understanding the earth system, but research is often impeded by data access (e.g., privacy issues), quality, formats, gaps, multi-source, multi-scale, integration, and spatiotemporal challenges. Effective integration of real data and simulated (synthetic) data that fill gaps is critical. Overcoming these complex data and model integration challenges will enable a transformational approach to acquiring enhanced understanding of environmental systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Air quality impacts from the development of unconventional oil and gas well pads: Air toxics and other volatile organic compounds

Unconventional oil and natural gas development (UOGD) has expanded rapidly across the United States in recent decades and raised concerns about associated air quality impacts. While significant effort has been made to quantify methane emissions, relatively few observations have been made of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), especially during drilling and completion of new wells. Extensive air monitoring during development of several large, multi-well pads in Broomfield, Colorado, in the Denver-Julesburg Basin, provides a novel opportunity to examine changes in local air toxics and other VOC concentrations during well drilling and completions and production. These operations offer an especially useful case to study as several management practices were implemented to reduce emissions (e.g., electrified, grid-powered drill rigs and closed loop fluid handling systems to reduce truck traffic and limit fluid handling on the pad). With simultaneous measurements of methane and 50 VOCs from October 2018 to December 2022 at as many as 19 sites near well pads, in adjacent neighborhoods, and at a more distant reference location, we identify impacts from each phase of well development and production. Use of weekly, time-integrated canisters, a Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer (PTR-MS), continuous photoionization detectors (PID) to trigger canister collection upon detection of VOC-rich plumes, and an instrumented vehicle, provided a powerful suite of measurements to characterize both transient plumes and longer-term changes in air quality. Prior to the start of well development, VOC gradients were small across Broomfield. Once drilling commenced, concentrations of oil and gas (O&G) related VOCs, including alkanes and aromatics, increased around active well pads. Concentration increases were clearly apparent during certain operations, including drilling, coil tubing/millout operations, and production tubing installation. Emissions of C 8 –C 10 n-alkanes during drilling operations highlighted the importance of VOC emissions from synthetic drilling mud chosen to reduce odor impacts. More than 90 samples were collected of transient plumes. Using composition measurements, meteorological data, and information about well pad activities, these plumes were connected with specific UOGD operations including drilling, flowback, and production equipment maintenance. The chemical signatures of these plumes differed by operation type (e.g., C 8 –C 10 n-alkanes constituted a larger fraction of measured VOCs in drilling-related plumes). Concentrations of individual, oil and gas-related VOCs in these plumes were often several orders of magnitude higher than in background air, with maximum ethane and benzene concentrations of 79,600 and 819 ppbv, respectively. Because these plumes typically impact a monitoring site for just several minutes, they are easily missed by slower-responding instruments. Study measurements highlight future emission mitigation opportunities during UOGD operations, including better control of emissions from shakers that separate drill cuttings from drilling mud, production separator maintenance operations, and periodic emptying of sand cans during flowback operations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms for the Generation of Complex Fracture Networks: Observations From Slant Core, Analog Models, and Outcrop

We use observations of hydraulic fractures in core, outcrop attributes of natural hydraulic fractures, and analogue models, to address how hydraulic fracture networks evolve. A slant core from the Wolfcamp Formation—an unconventional shale hydrocarbon reservoir in the Permian Basin of West Texas—collected within 18 m and 30 m of two hydraulically stimulated horizontal wells, provided an opportunity to examine hydraulic fractures directly. In approximately 183 m of core, 309 calcite-sealed natural opening-mode fractures and 375 hydraulic fractures were identified. Many hydraulic fractures in the core show complex morphology, including twist-hackle segmentation, diversion, and bifurcation; these structures most commonly develop at lithological bed boundaries and mechanical heterogeneities such as natural fractures and concretions. An outcrop of bed-parallel pavements in the Cretaceous Boquillas Formation in West Texas contains opening-mode fractures that likely formed by natural hydraulic fracturing. Fracture traces provide evidence of twist-hackle segmentation, and are typically associated with bed boundaries and preexisting bed-parallel stylolites. A laboratory study of hydraulic fracturing of 33 synthetic blocks of gypsum and hydrostone revealed fracture steps, diversions, twist hackles, and multiple overlapping fractures together with information on fracture growth directions. These complexities in the fracture network were dominantly nucleated at inclusions used to simulate pre-existing fractures, and as a result of mechanical heterogeneity introduced by the wellbore and perforations. Collectively, our results show that complex fracture networks are produced in hydraulic fracturing of self-sourced reservoir strata. Mechanical stratigraphic boundaries and other heterogeneities are likely to enhance fracture network complexity through the processes of segmentation, diversion, and bifurcation. These processes create multiple fracture strands, resulting in an increased number of hydraulic fractures over those initiated, thereby increasing total fracture surface area. Our study provides insight into hydraulic fracture network propagation, and has applications for evaluation, completion, production, and fracture modeling of unconventional reservoirs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗