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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Adoption of delivery services in light of the COVID pandemic: Who and how long?

A significant growth in demand for online shopping in light of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID) crisis has received attention from transportation practitioners, policy-makers, and researchers. However, an important question arises in this increase in online shopping and resulting deliveries: How long will this last? Very little is known whether this popularity would last a long time. Here, to address this question, the authors conducted a survey of 915 individuals residing in the U.S. and classified them into the four distinctive consumer types (i.e., the prior adopter, temporary adopter and permanent new adopter, and non-adopter) depending on their usage of delivery services before, during, and after (expected) the COVID crisis. This research aims to gain behavioral insight by exploring the differences between the four consumer types and investigating factors affecting the initial adoption and continuance intention of using delivery services. The descriptive analysis revealed that there are clear differences not only between the four types of consumers but also between the four product types (i.e., grocery, food, home goods, and other packages) considered in the survey. The models found that factors affecting the initial adoption and continuance intention are different from the previous studies conducted before the COVID pandemic. Implications for planning and policymaking are also discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Evaluation of Occupancy-Aware Model Predictive Control for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

The residential sector accounts for 25% of global primary energy consumption. Two methods have previously been proposed to reduce residential energy use associated with the provision of occupant thermal comfort: 1. Occupancy-based HVAC control, operating systems only during confirmed occupancy, and 2. model predictive control (MPC), harnessing a mathematical model and forecasts to find optimal operating strategies. Previous studies estimate the average energy savings of the two methods individually in the range of 21% and 16%, respectively. The research presented herein was carried out to evaluate the energy savings potential in residential buildings by combining both approaches across different climates, house vintages, and occupancy patterns. Occupancy and eight different physical modalities (e.g. CO2 and VOC) data were collected from five homes for time periods of 4–9 weeks. Collected data sets were used to train occupancy prediction models suggested by an extensive literature survey of occupancy model types. The trained prediction models were combined with MPC and detailed EnergyPlus building simulation models to evaluate residential building performance in terms of annual energy savings and thermal comfort, along with discomfort exceedance metrics. Multiple home types and regions were analyzed to understand regional and climate-dependent potential. Based on actual field data, the occupancy models had a prediction inaccuracy between 8% and 35% across the investigated homes. Average occupancy for the collected data ranged from 56% to 86%, a typical range reported in the literature. Building simulations were conducted for three control scenarios: conventional thermostatic control, occupancy-based, and occupancy-based MPC. The results indicate that all advanced strategies improve upon the conventional control, with some scenarios cutting energy use in half with only occasional incurrence of discomfort. The findings indicate that occupancy-aware model predictive residential building control has the potential to drastically reduce energy use and associated emissions while maintaining occupant comfort for both new and existing buildings.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observational constraints of an anisotropic boost due to the projection effects using redMaPPer clusters

Optical clusters identified from red-sequence galaxies suffer from projection effects, where interloper galaxies along the line of sight to a cluster are mistaken as genuine members of the cluster. In the previous study, we found that the projection effects cause the boost on the amplitudes of clustering and lensing on large scale compared to the expected amplitudes in the absence of any projection effects. These boosts are caused by preferential selections of filamentary structure aligned to the line of sight due to distance uncertainties in photometric surveys. We model the projection effects with two simple assumptions and develop a novel method to quantify the size of the boost using cluster-galaxy cross-correlation functions. We validate our method using mock cluster catalogues built from cosmological N-body simulations and find that we can obtain unbiased constraints on the boost parameter with our model. We then apply our analysis on the SDSS redMaPPer clusters and find that the size of the boost is roughly 20 per cent for all the richness bins except the cluster sample with the richness bin λ ∈ [30, 40]. This is the first study to constrain the boost parameter independent from cluster cosmology studies and provides a self-consistency test for the projection effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

From Rules to Reasoning: A Survey of Large Language Model-Based Approaches to Scientific Hypothesis and Idea Generation

Scientific hypothesis generation represents a fundamental challenge in contemporary research due to exponentially expanding literature volumes and increasing disciplinary specialization. Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as transformative tools for automated scientific discovery, moving beyond traditional rule-based and literature-mining approaches. Four paradigmatic approaches define current LLM-driven hypothesis generation: direct prompting and fine-tuning methods, knowledge-enhanced frameworks integrating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), multi-agent collaborative systems simulating research teams, and reasoning-focused approaches implementing cognitive architectures. Domain-specific applications demonstrate statistical equivalence to human expert performance in social psychology, experimental validation in biomedical research, and near-expert quality in astronomy. Evaluation methodologies encompass human expert assessment, LLM-as-judge frameworks, and comprehensive benchmarking systems. Technical challenges include hallucination management, knowledge integration limitations, and balancing novelty with feasibility. Future directions emphasize hybrid neural-symbolic architectures and sophisticated human-AI collaboration models for responsible scientific discovery acceleration.

AI-driven discovery↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Short Survey of Current Reactive Burn Model Capabilities as of Mid-Year 2025

The authors were tasked with writing a concise memo (now a short report) that adequately addresses the current ``state-of-the-art'' in the field of reactive flow modeling and burn models for mid-year 2025, along with identifying some of the modeling gaps. It is assumed that the reader has experience with burn models and running hydrocode simulations, and thus every effort is made to ensure brevity, clarity, and utility, so that this document will serve as a quick and useful reference. Note that “mid-year” was used in the title, as it is possible that advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) may significantly impact the field before the year is over.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel transfer learning framework for sorghum biomass prediction using UAV-based remote sensing data and genetic markers

Yield for biofuel crops is measured in terms of biomass, so measurements throughout the growing season are crucial in breeding programs, yet traditionally time- and labor-consuming since they involve destructive sampling. Modern remote sensing platforms, such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), can carry multiple sensors and collect numerous phenotypic traits with efficient, non-invasive field surveys. However, modeling the complex relationships between the observed phenotypic traits and biomass remains a challenging task, as the ground reference data are very limited for each genotype in the breeding experiment. In this study, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model is proposed for sorghum biomass prediction. The architecture is designed to exploit the time series remote sensing and weather data, as well as static genotypic information. As a large number of features have been derived from the remote sensing data, feature importance analysis is conducted to identify and remove redundant features. A strategy to extract representative information from high-dimensional genetic markers is proposed. To enhance generalization and minimize the need for ground reference data, transfer learning strategies are proposed for selecting the most informative training samples from the target domain. Consequently, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples. Field experiments were conducted over a sorghum breeding trial planted in multiple years with more than 600 testcross hybrids. The results show that the proposed LSTM-based RNN model can achieve high accuracies for single year prediction. Further, with the proposed transfer learning strategies, a pre-trained model can be refined with limited training samples from the target domain and predict biomass with an accuracy comparable to that from a trained-from-scratch model for both multiple experiments within a given year and across multiple years.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mass Dependence of Galaxy–Halo Alignment in LOWZ and CMASS

We measure the galaxy-ellipticity (GI) correlations for the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 12 LOWZ and CMASS samples with the shape measurements from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys. We model the GI correlations in an N-body simulation with our recent accurate stellar–halo mass relation from the Photometric object Around Cosmic webs (PAC) method. The large data set and our accurate modeling turns out an accurate measurement of the alignment angle between central galaxies and their host halos. We find that the alignment of central elliptical galaxies with their host halos increases monotonically with galaxy stellar mass or host halo mass, which can be well described by a power law for the massive galaxies. We also find that central elliptical galaxies are more aligned with their host halos in LOWZ than in CMASS, which might indicate an evolution of galaxy–halo alignment, though future studies are needed to verify this is not induced by the sample selections. In contrast, central disk galaxies are aligned with their host halos about 10 times more weakly in the GI correlation. These results have important implications for intrinsic alignment (IA) correction in weak lensing studies, IA cosmology, and theory of massive galaxy formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI Emission-line Galaxies: Clustering Dependence on Stellar Mass and [O II] Luminosity

We measure the projected two-point correlation functions of emission-line galaxies (ELGs) from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument One-Percent Survey and model their dependence on stellar mass and [O II] luminosity. We select ∼180,000 ELGs with redshifts of 0.8 < z < 1.6, and define 27 samples according to cuts in redshift and both galaxy properties. Following a framework that describes the conditional [O II] luminosity–stellar mass distribution as a function of halo mass, we simultaneously model the clustering measurements of all samples at fixed redshift. Based on the modeling result, most ELGs in our samples are classified as central galaxies, residing in halos of a narrow mass range with a typical median of ∼10 12.2−12.4 h −1 M ⊙ . We observe a weak dependence of clustering amplitude on stellar mass, which is reflected in the model constraints and is likely a consequence of the 0.5 dex measurement uncertainty in the stellar mass estimates. The model shows a trend between galaxy bias and [O II] luminosity at high redshift (1.2 < z < 1.6) that is otherwise absent at lower redshifts.

Cosmology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Review of multi-fidelity models

Multi-fidelity models provide a framework for integrating computational models of varying complexity, allowing for accurate predictions while optimizing computational resources. These models are especially beneficial when acquiring high-accuracy data is costly or computationally intensive. This review offers a comprehensive analysis of multi-fidelity models, focusing on their applications in scientific and engineering fields, particularly in optimization and uncertainty quantification. It classifies publications on multi-fidelity modeling according to several criteria, including application area, surrogate model selection, types of fidelity, combination methods and year of publication. The study investigates techniques for combining different fidelity levels, with an emphasis on multi-fidelity surrogate models. Here this work discusses reproducibility, open-sourcing methodologies and benchmarking procedures to promote transparency. The manuscript also includes educational toy problems to enhance understanding. Additionally, this paper outlines best practices for presenting multi-fidelity-related savings in a standardized, succinct and yet thorough manner. The review concludes by examining current trends in multi-fidelity modeling, including emerging techniques, recent advancements, and promising research directions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data Request for the Distribution Grid Atlas

Model-based, distribution powerflow analysis is a foundational component of system planning and grid modernization efforts, but data security is an impediment to collaboration among utility engineers, researchers, developers, community members, and other stakeholders. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are partnering to develop the new Distribution Grid Atlas - a publicly available catalog of realistic, geographically relevant, representative distribution feeder models without sensitive geographic information, customer data, or disclosure of utility models. We are looking for utilities to share data for the Distribution Grid Atlas.

distribution↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new constraint on galaxy–halo connections of [O ii ] emitters via HOD modelling with angular clustering and luminosity functions from the Subaru HSC survey

ABSTRACT Establishing a robust connection model between emission-line galaxies (ELGs) and their host dark haloes is of paramount importance in anticipation of upcoming redshift surveys. We propose a novel halo occupation distribution (HOD) framework that incorporates galaxy luminosity, a key observable reflecting ELG star-formation activity, into the galaxy occupation model. This innovation enables prediction of galaxy luminosity functions (LFs) and facilitates joint analyses using both angular correlation functions (ACFs) and LFs. Using physical information from luminosity, our model provides more robust constraints on the ELG–halo connection compared to methods relying solely on ACF and number density constraints. Our model was applied to $\rm [O\, {\small II}]$-emitting galaxies observed at two redshift slices at $z=1.193$ and 1.471 from the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam PDR2. Our model effectively reproduces observed ACFs and LFs observed in both redshift slices. Compared to the established Geach et al. HOD model, our approach offers a more nuanced depiction of ELG occupation across halo mass ranges, suggesting a more realistic representation of ELG environments. Our findings suggest that ELGs at $z\sim 1.4$ may evolve into Milky-Way-like galaxies, as their inferred halo masses evolve accordingly based on the extended Press–Schechter formalism, highlighting their role as potential building blocks in galaxy formation scenarios. By incorporating the LF as a constraint linking galaxy luminosity to halo properties, our HOD model provides a more precise understanding of ELG-host halo relationships. Furthermore, this approach facilitates the generation of high-quality ELG mock catalogues for future surveys. As the LF is a fundamental observable, our framework is potentially applicable to diverse galaxy populations, offering a versatile tool for analysing data from next-generation galaxy surveys.

Ishikawa, Shogo (ORCID:0000000221184211)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Going Forward with the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope Transient Survey: Validation of Precision Forward-modeling Photometry for Undersampled Imaging

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) is an observatory for both wide-field observations and coronagraphy that is scheduled for launch in the mid-2020s. Part of the planned survey is a deep, cadenced field or fields that enable cosmological measurements with type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia). With a pixel scale of 0$_.^"$11, the Wide Field Instrument will be undersampled, presenting a difficulty for precisely subtracting the galaxy light underneath the SNe. We use simulated data to validate the ability of a forward-model code (such codes are frequently also called “scene-modeling” codes) to perform precision supernova photometry for the Roman SN survey. Our simulation includes over 760,000 image cutouts around SNe Ia or host galaxies (~10% of a full-scale survey). To have a realistic 2D distribution of underlying galaxy light, we use the VELA simulated high-resolution images of galaxies. We run each set of cutouts through our forward-modeling code which automatically measures time-dependent SN fluxes. Given our assumed inputs of a perfect model of the instrument point-spread functions and calibration, we find biases at the millimagnitude level from this method in four red filters (Y106, J129, H158, and F184), easily meeting the 0.5% Roman inter-filter calibration requirement for a cutting-edge measurement of cosmological parameters using SNe Ia. Simulated data in the bluer Z087 filter shows larger ~ 2–3 mmg biases, also meeting this requirement, but with more room for improvement. Our forward-model code has been released on Zenodo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

DESI complete calibration of the colour–redshift relation (DC3R2): results from early DESI data

We present initial results from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) complete calibration of the colour–redshift relation (DC3R2) secondary target survey. Our analysis uses 230 k galaxies that overlap with KiDS-VIKING ugriZYJHK s photometry to calibrate the colour–redshift relation and to inform photometric redshift (photo-z) inference methods of future weak lensing surveys. Together with emission line galaxies (ELGs), luminous red galaxies (LRGs), and the Bright Galaxy Survey (BGS) that provide samples of complementary colour, the DC3R2 targets help DESI to span 56 percent of the colour space visible to Euclid and LSST with high confidence spectroscopic redshifts. The effects of spectroscopic completeness and quality are explored, as well as systematic uncertainties introduced with the use of common Self-Organizing Maps trained on different photometry than the analysis sample. We further examine the dependence of redshift on magnitude at fixed colour, important for the use of bright galaxy spectra to calibrate redshifts in a fainter photometric galaxy sample. We find that noise in the KiDS-VIKING photometry introduces a dominant, apparent magnitude dependence of redshift at fixed colour, which indicates a need for carefully chosen deep drilling fields, and survey simulation to model this effect for future weak lensing surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-correlation of Dark Energy Survey Year 3 lensing data with ACT and Planck thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect observations. I. Measurements, systematics tests, and feedback model constraints

Here we present a tomographic measurement of the cross-correlation between thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (TSZ) maps from Planck and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and weak galaxy lensing shears measured during the first three years of observations of the Dark Energy Survey. This correlation is sensitive to the thermal energy in baryons over a wide redshift range and is therefore a powerful probe of astrophysical feedback. We detect the correlation at a statistical significance of 21σ, the highest significance to date. We examine the TSZ maps for potential contaminants, including cosmic infrared background and radio sources, finding that cosmic infrared background has a substantial impact on our measurements and must be taken into account in our analysis. We use the cross-correlation measurements to test different feedback models. In particular, we model the TSZ using several different pressure profile models calibrated against hydrodynamical simulations. Our analysis marginalizes over redshift uncertainties, shear calibration biases, and intrinsic alignment effects. We also marginalize over Ω m and σ 8 using Planck or DES priors. We find that the data prefer the model with a low amplitude of the pressure profile at small scales, compatible with a scenario with strong active galactic nuclei feedback and ejection of gas from the inner part of the halos. When using a more flexible model for the shear profile, constraints are weaker, and the data cannot discriminate between different baryonic prescriptions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Phase II Field Demonstration at Lansing Smith Generating Plant, Southport, Florida (Final Report)

The Final Technical Report: Field Test Design and Pressure Management Strategies for Phase II Field Demonstration of Optimal Pressure Control, Plume Management, and Produced Water Strategies presents the culmination of multi-year efforts under the U.S. Department of Energy’s Brine Extraction and Storage Test (BEST) program, led by EPRI in partnership with Gulf Power at the Plant Smith site near Panama City, Florida. The project was designed to evaluate and demonstrate the technical feasibility of managing subsurface pressures and fluid movement associated with large-scale CO₂ injection, using low-salinity water as a proxy fluid. Through a combination of field injection testing, reservoir modeling, and optimization studies, the research team developed and refined active and passive brine extraction strategies aimed at controlling injection-induced pressure buildup, mitigating risks of fault activation, and managing plume migration. The field demonstration incorporated a new injection well (TIW-2), a new monitoring/extraction well (TEMW-A), and an existing well (TIW-1) repurposed for passive pressure relief. Complementary geophysical monitoring was designed to track plume development and evaluate the effectiveness of pressure management strategies. The report details the integrated workflow encompassing wellfield development, regulatory permitting, model calibration, and survey design. It includes a comprehensive electromagnetic (EM) modeling and inversion study used to develop a cost-effective, time-lapse geophysical monitoring plan capable of imaging the evolving low-salinity plume within the highly saline Lower Tuscaloosa formation. Reservoir simulation results guided the design of the 17-month injection program and the timing of active extraction to maintain formation pressures below a hypothetical fault reactivation threshold. Supporting analyses evaluated potential injectivity risks related to clay fines migration and geochemical incompatibility, identifying practical mitigation measures such as salinity and pH control. The final design recommends a series of crosswell EM surveys—conducted before, during, and after injection—as the most effective and economical approach for plume imaging, supplemented by continuous downhole pressure and flow monitoring. Collectively, the study provides a field-ready framework for cost-effective pressure management and monitoring in support of future CO₂ storage projects.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Automated Posterior Estimation Techniques for Modeling Strong Lenses In Ground-based Survey Data

Current and future ground-based cosmological surveys, such as the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), are predicted to discover thousands to tens of thousands of strong gravitational lenses. The large number of strong lenses discoverable in future surveys will make strong lensing a highly competitive and complementary cosmic probe. However, conventional lens modeling techniques are unable to scale up to the sheer number of lenses that will be discovered through upcoming surveys. Therefore, the use of automated lens analysis techniques is necessary. We demonstrate that machine learning methods can be used to automate the inference of informative model posteriors of strong lensing systems in ground-based surveys with credible uncertainty estimation. We present two Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) approaches for lens parameter estimation of galaxy-galaxy lenses. We demonstrate applications of Neural Posteriors Estima tors (NPEs) and Bayesian Neural Network (BNNs) to automate the inference of a 12-parameter lensing system for DES-like ground-based imaging data. We apply a suite of diagnostics (e.g., posterior coverage and SBC) to validate the performance of our methods. We find that NPEs outperform the BNN, producing posterior distributions that are for the most part both more accurate and more precise; in particular, several source-light model parameters are systematically biased in the BNN implementation.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A semblance measure for model comparison

Algorithmic and computational advances have made it possible that geophysical survey and earth model design can be aided by many systematic trial inverse-modelling runs with synthetic data. Such may, for example, come up in machine-learning approaches. Automated image appraisal pertaining to such applications will involve common statistical tests for goodness-of-data fit as a primary evaluation method. However, solution non-uniqueness may render multiple images equivalent in terms of their data fit, requiring secondary categorizers. A logical choice for classifying synthetic-imaging results quantifies the goodness of model fit where a known reference model replaces the observational input. The task of model intercomparison in terms of measuring the resemblance to the reference model poses challenges to common distance-based metrics like root mean square error and mean absolute error. First, distance-based metrics can introduce spurious contributions when smooth models with fuzzy target contours are to be compared against a sharp reference. Second, large differences due to parameter-estimation overshoots can dominate distance metrics. Here, we propose a remedy that is referred to as semblance and is based on the idea of logistic functions, where a binary-dependent variable adds non-zero or zero accumulation terms for the, respectively, passing or failing of preset target thresholds. This classifying approach is amenable to an objective where model feature recognition is primary. Numerical comparisons to distance-based metrics provide evidence for the advantages of the semblance in view of this objective. Geophysical imaging in conjunction with machine-learning is seen as a benefitting upcoming application area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

How deep is your soil? Quantifying and spatially analyzing understudied deep soil in the United States

Deep soil is largely understudied and important in understanding biogeochemical processes in soil. Here, understudied soil is defined as the difference between soil studied to a known depth and the estimated bedrock depth. To understand more about deep soil, the understudied soil in the US was quantified and spatially analyzed using soil survey data and model estimates of bedrock depth. An equation was derived to find understudied soil using the dataset parameters “max lower depth studied”, “depth to bedrock”, and “likelihood of bedrock in the top 200 cm”. The survey data and bedrock model revealed that soil has been studied to an average depth of 1-2 meters, and the average depth to bedrock is 20 meters. Soil data density in the soil surveys was greatest in the West Coast, Midwest, and areas historically managed for agricultural, while the non-contiguous US and interior West were underrepresented. The soil had been studied deeper than the estimated soil depth in 455 out of 56,889 observation points concentrated in Alaska, California, Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands. To understand the diversity and any taxonomic bias of the global soil data available, soil order was compared to US-based National Resource Conservation Service percentages and it was found that Oxisols, Alfisols, Ultisols, Andisols, and Histosols were overrepresented while Gelisols, Aridisols, Vertisols, Entisols, and Spodosols are underrepresented. Soil depth is important in exploring the complexity of biogeochemical processes that take place in soil.

Bedrock↗