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At least 91 records · Page 5

Hydrology controls thermokarst and alters carbon cycling and methane emissions in peatlands near the southern limit of permafrost

Permafrost peatlands store vast amounts of frozen carbon across northern landscapes. When ground ice melts, surface subsidence produces thermokarst landforms that expand wetlands at the edges of permafrost plateaus. Thermokarst represents an accelerating climate feedback, but uncertainties remain about how ground ice, hydrology, and vegetation interact to shape landscape change and carbon fluxes. We extended the process-based model ecosys to simulate thermokarst dynamics in laterally coupled 2D transects at a well-characterized boreal peatland site in Canada’s Northwest Territories. After benchmarking against site observations, we varied ground ice content and hydrologic boundary conditions across ranges typical near the southern permafrost limit. Simulations revealed distinct degradation regimes governed by the elevation difference between the frost table and the external water table. Rates of lateral retreat, the thaw-driven encroachment of wetlands into adjacent plateaus, ranged from 0 to >2 m yr −1 under identical weather forcing, consistent with observations and highlighting the strong role of WT and ground ice. Simulated vegetation dynamics indicate that black spruce mortality cannot be explained by anoxia alone, pointing to additional stressors such as root damage, pathogens, or physical destabilization. Despite large hydrologic shifts, net ecosystem CO 2 exchange remained a slight sink after collapse, while methane (CH 4 ) emissions rose by one to two orders of magnitude. As a result, lateral retreat substantially increases the greenhouse warming potential of permafrost peatlands (1.7 million km 2 in area), with simulated emissions of 0.1–10 Mt CO 2 -eq decade −1 depending on hydrology and retreat rates. These results underscore the need to account for both ground ice and hydrologic dynamics when assessing thermokarst-driven climate feedbacks.

carbon cycling↗

The influence of the cloud virial parameter on the initial mass function

ABSTRACT Crucial for star formation is the interplay between gravity and turbulence. The observed cloud virial parameter, $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}$, which is the ratio of twice the turbulent kinetic energy to the gravitational energy, is found to vary significantly in different environments, where the scatter among individual star-forming clouds can exceed an order of magnitude. Therefore, a strong dependence of the initial mass function (IMF) on $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}$ may challenge the notion of a universal IMF. To determine the role of $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}$ on the IMF, we compare the star-particle mass functions obtained in high-resolution magnetohydrodynamical simulations including jet and heating feedback, with $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}=0.0625$, 0.125, and 0.5. We find that varying $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}$ from $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}\sim 0.5$ to $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}< 0.1$ shifts the peak of the IMF to lower masses by a factor of $\sim 2$ and increases the star formation rate by a similar factor. The dependence of the IMF and star formation rate on $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}$ is non-linear, with the dependence subsiding at $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}< 0.1$. Our study shows a systematic dependence of the IMF on $\alpha _{\mathrm{vir}}$. Yet, it may not be measurable easily in observations, considering the uncertainties, and the relatively weak dependence found in this study.

Mathew, Sajay Sunny (ORCID:0000000283818195)↗

Changing Interactions Between Trace Gas Fluxes, Belowground Chemistry, and Plant Traits Across an Arctic Thermokarst Landscape

Arctic permafrost soils are increasingly subject to thermokarst that is, abrupt ground subsidence caused by thaw. Wetlands can form within these depressions, leading to changes in organic matter decomposition and gas fluxes (CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, NH 3 ). Thermokarst wetlands tend to be dominated by graminoids, while surrounding upland tussock tundra tends to be dominated by mixed communities of shrubs and graminoids. Here, to investigate how thermokarst alters the land-atmosphere exchange of C and N gases in Arctic tundra, we analyzed soil, porewater, above- and belowground biomass, and measured gas fluxes across dominant plant functional types (PFTs) within a lowland thermokarst wetland and adjacent upland tussock tundra. Both locations were overall sinks of CO 2 , sources of CH 4 , and sources of both N 2 O and NH 3 . We found that thermokarst wetlands emitted enough CH 4 to generate a positive radiative forcing in CO 2 equivalents (+1.2 μmol m −2 s −1 CO 2 -eq), counteracting the high CO 2 uptake. In contrast, the upland tussock tundra had a net negative radiative forcing (−1.2 μmol m −2 s −1 CO 2 -eq). Differences in gas flux and soil chemistry between upland and lowland are primarily driven by flooded conditions present in thermokarst wetland. Additionally, root biomass from graminoids across both lowlands and uplands significantly correlated with CH 4 fluxes, supporting previous observations of plant-mediated transport of CH 4 . Graminoid cover was correlated with increases in low molecular weight dissolved organic carbon, possibly associated with root exudates that fuel methanogenesis. Forb cover in the upland tussock tundra was significantly correlated with nine soil chemical variables, indicating that forbs may influence local soil chemistry or conversely, that soil chemistry controls where forbs grow. Overall, our findings indicate the variability in gas fluxes in the upland tussock tundra is partially controlled by PFT cover, while thermokarst wetlands emit enough CH 4 to counteract CO 2 uptake, with implications for carbon budget changes in Arctic systems.

Land-atmosphere feedback↗

Cretaceous sequence stratigraphy of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough: Implications for basin evolution and carbon storage

We evaluate the Cretaceous stratigraphy and carbon sequestration potential of the northern Baltimore Canyon Trough (NBCT) using >10,000 km of multi-channel seismic profiles integrated with geophysical logs, biostratigraphy, and lithology from 29 offshore wells. We identify and map six sequences resolved primarily at the stage level. Accommodation was dominated by thermal and non-thermal subsidence, though sequence boundaries correlate with regional and global sea-level changes, and the record is modified by igneous intrusion, active faulting, and changes in sediment supply and sources. Our stratigraphic maps illustrate a primary southern (central Appalachian) Early Cretaceous source that migrated northward during the Aptian and Albian. During the Cenomanian, sedimentation rates in the NBCT increased and depocenters shifted northward and landward. We show that deposition occurred in three phases: (1) earlier Cretaceous paleoenvironments were primarily terrestrial indicated by variable amplitude, chaotic seismic facies, serrated gamma logs, and heterolithic sandstones and mudstones with terrestrial microfossils; (2) the Albian to Cenomanian was dominated by deltaic paleoenvironments indicated by blocky, funnel-shaped, gamma-ray logs and clinoforms characterized by continuous high-amplitude seismic reflections with well-defined terminations; and (3) the Cenomanian and younger was marine shelf, inferred from mudstoneprone lithologies, peak gamma-ray values in well logs, and foraminiferal evidence. Long-term transgression and maximum water depths at the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary correlative with Ocean Anoxic Event 2 were followed by a regression and relative sea-level fall. We show that porous and permeable sandstones of three Aptian to Cenomanian highstand systems tracts are high-volume reservoirs for supercritical CO 2 storage that are confined by overlying deep water mudstones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

River Deltas and Sea-Level Rise

Future sea-level rise poses an existential threat for many river deltas, yet quantifying the effect of sea-level changes on these coastal landforms remains a challenge. Sea-level changes have been slow compared to other coastal processes during the instrumental record, such that our knowledge comes primarily from models, experiments, and the geologic record. Here we review the current state of science on river delta response to sea-level change, including models and observations from the Holocene until 2300 CE. We report on improvements in the detection and modeling of past and future regional sea-level change, including a better understanding of the underlying processes and sources of uncertainty. We also see significant improvements in morphodynamic delta models. Still, substantial uncertainties remain, notably on present and future subsidence rates in and near deltas. Observations of delta submergence and land loss due to modern sea-level rise also remain elusive, posing major challenges to model validation. There are large differences in the initiation time and subsequent delta progradation during the Holocene, likely from different sea-level and sediment supply histories. Modern deltas are larger and will face faster sea-level rise than during their Holocene growth, making them susceptible to forced transgression. Regional sea-level projections have been much improved in the past decade and now also isolate dominant sources of uncertainty, such as the Antarctic ice sheet. Vertical land motion in deltas can be the dominant source of relative sea-level change and the dominant source of uncertainty; limited observations complicate projections. River deltas globally might lose 5% (~35,000 km 2 ) of their surface area by 2100 and 50% by 2300 due to relative sea-level rise under a high-emission scenario.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Feedbacks Regulating the Salinization of Coastal Landscapes

The impact of saltwater intrusion on coastal forests and farmland is typically understood as sea-level-driven inundation of a static terrestrial landscape, where ecosystems neither adapt to nor influence saltwater intrusion. Yet recent observations of tree mortality and reduced crop yields have inspired new process-based research into the hydrologic, geomorphic, biotic, and anthropogenic mechanisms involved. We review several negative feedbacks that help stabilize ecosystems in the early stages of salinity stress (e.g., reduced water use and resource competition in surviving trees, soil accretion, and farmland management). However, processes that reduce salinity are often accompanied by increases in hypoxia and other changes that may amplify saltwater intrusion and vegetation shifts after a threshold is exceeded (e.g., subsidence following tree root mortality). This conceptual framework helps explain observed rates of vegetation change that are less than predicted for a static landscape while recognizing the inevitability of large-scale change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Dynamics Preceding Summer Forest Fires in California and the Extreme Case of 2018

Recent record-breaking wildfire seasons in California prompt an investigation into the climate patterns that typically precede anomalous summer burned forest area. Using burned-area data from the U.S. Forest Service’s Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) product and climate data from the fifth major global reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) over 1984–2018, relationships between the interannual variability of antecedent climate anomalies and July California burned area are spatially and temporally characterized. Lag correlations show that antecedent high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), high temperatures, frequent extreme high temperature days, low precipitation, high subsidence, high geopotential height, low soil moisture, and low snowpack and snowmelt anomalies all correlate significantly with July California burned area as far back as the January before the fire season. Seasonal regression maps indicate that a global midlatitude atmospheric wave train in late winter is associated with anomalous July California burned area. July 2018, a year with especially high burned area, was to some extent consistent with the general patterns revealed by the regressions: low winter precipitation and high spring VPD preceded the extreme burned area. However, geopotential height anomaly patterns were distinct from those in the regressions. Extreme July heat likely contributed to the extent of the fires ignited that month, even though extreme July temperatures do not historically significantly correlate with July burned area. While the 2018 antecedent climate conditions were typical of a high-burned-area year, they were not extreme, demonstrating the likely limits of statistical prediction of extreme fire seasons and the need for individual case studies of extreme years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Idealized Large-Eddy Simulations of Stratocumulus Advecting over Cold Water. Part I: Boundary Layer Decoupling

Abstract We explore the decoupling physics of a stratocumulus-topped boundary layer (STBL) moving over cooler water, a situation mimicking warm-air advection (WADV). We simulate an initially well-mixed STBL over a doubly periodic domain with the sea surface temperature decreasing linearly over time using the System for Atmospheric Modeling large-eddy model. Due to the surface cooling, the STBL becomes increasingly stably stratified, manifested as a near-surface temperature inversion topped by a well-mixed cloud-containing layer. Unlike the stably stratified STBL in cold-air advection (CADV) that is characterized by cumulus coupling, the stratocumulus deck in the WADV is unambiguously decoupled from the sea surface, manifested as weakly negative buoyancy flux throughout the subcloud layer. Without the influxes of buoyancy from the surface, the convective circulation in the well-mixed cloud-containing layer is driven by cloud-top radiative cooling. In such a regime, the downdrafts propel the circulation, in contrast to that in CADV regime for which the cumulus updrafts play a more determinant role. Such a contrast in convection regime explains the difference in many aspects of the STBLs including the entrainment rate, cloud homogeneity, vertical exchanges of heat and moisture, and lifetime of the stratocumulus deck, with the last being subject to a more thorough investigation in Part II. Finally, we investigate under what conditions a secondary stratus near the surface (or fog) can form in the WADV. We found that weaker subsidence favors the formation of fog whereas a more rapid surface cooling rate does not. Significant Statement The low-lying blanketlike clouds, called stratocumulus (Sc), reflect much incoming sunlight, substantially modulating Earth’s temperature. While much is known about how the Sc evolves when it moves over warmer water, few studies examine the opposite situation of Sc moving over colder water. We used a high-resolution numerical model to simulate such a case. When moving over cold water, the Sc becomes unambiguously decoupled from the water surface, distinctive from its warm counterpart in which the Sc interacts with the water surface via intermittent cauliflower-like clouds called cumulus clouds. Such decoupling influences many aspects of the Sc–sea surface system, which combine to alter the ability of the Sc to reflect sunlight, thereby influencing the climate. This work laid the foundation for future work that quantifies the contribution of such a decoupled Sc regime to Earth’s radiative budget and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model for the Initiation of Summer-time Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Central United States

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) account for more than 50% of summertime precipitation over the central United States and have a significant impact on local weather and hydrologic cycle. It is hypothesized that the inadequate treatment of MCSs is responsible for the long-standing warm and dry bias over the central United States in coarse-resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations. In particular, a better understanding of MCS initiation is still lacking. Here a single-column Lagrangian parcel model is first developed to simulate the basic features of a rising parcel. This simple model demonstrates the collective effects of boundary layer moistening and dynamical lifting in triggering convective initiation and reproduces successfully its early afternoon peak with surface equivalent potential temperature as a controlling factor. It also predicts that convection is harder to trigger in the future climate under global warming, consistent with the results from convection-permitting regional climate simulations. Then, a multicolumn model that includes an array of single-column models aligned in the east–west direction and incorporates idealized cold pool interaction mechanisms is developed. The multicolumn model captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature in MCS genesis from initially scattered convection that is organized into a mesoscale cluster in a few hours. It also highlights the crucial role of lifting effects due to cold pool collision and spreading, subsidence effect, and gust front propagation speed in controlling the final size of mesoscale clusters and cold pool regions. This simple model should be useful for understanding fundamental mechanisms of MCS initiation and providing guidance for improving MCS simulations in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing CESM2 Clouds and Their Response to Climate Change Using Cloud Regimes

Abstract The Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), has a very high climate sensitivity driven by strong positive cloud feedbacks. To evaluate the simulated clouds in the present climate and characterize their response with climate warming, a clustering approach is applied to three independent satellite cloud products and a set of coupled climate simulations. Using k -means clustering with a Wasserstein distance cost function, a set of typical cloud configurations is derived for the satellite cloud products. Using satellite simulator output, the model clouds are classified into the observed cloud regimes in both current and future climates. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed cloud configurations in the historical simulation using the same time period as the satellite observations, but it struggles to capture the observed heterogeneity of clouds which leads to an overestimation of the frequency of a few preferred cloud regimes. This problem is especially apparent for boundary layer clouds. Those low-level cloud regimes also account for much of the climate response in the late twenty-first century in four shared socioeconomic pathway simulations. The model reduces the frequency of occurrence of these low-cloud regimes, especially in tropical regions under large-scale subsidence, in favor of regimes that have weaker cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Novel Method for Diagnosing Land–Atmosphere Coupling Sensitivity in a Single-Column Model

The response of boundary layer properties and cloudiness to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) is investigated in a single-column model to quantify the locally coupled impact of subgrid surface variations on the atmosphere during summer. Sensitive coupling days are defined when the model atmosphere exhibits large variations across a range of EFs centered on the analyzed value. Coupling sensitivity exists as both positive feedback (cloudiness increases with EF) and negative feedback (clouds increase with decreasing EF) regimes. The positive regime manifests in shallow convection situations, which are capped by a strengthened inversion and subsidence, restricting the vertical extent of convection to just above the boundary layer. Surfaces with larger EF (greater surface latent heat flux) can inject more moisture into the vertically confined system, lowering the cloud base and an increasing cloud liquid water path (LWP). Negative feedback regimes tend to manifest when large-scale deep convection, such as from mesoscale convective systems and fronts, is advected through the domain, where convection strengthens over surfaces with a lower EF (greater surface sensible heat flux). The invigoration of these systems by the land surface leads to an increase in LWP through strengthened updrafts and stronger coupling between the boundary layer and the free atmosphere. These results apply in the absence of heterogeneity-induced mesoscale circulations, providing a one-dimensional dynamical perspective on the effect of surface heterogeneity. Finally, this study provides a framework of intermediate complexity, lying between parcel theory and high-resolution coupled land–atmosphere modeling, and therefore isolates the relevant first-order processes in land–atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Pacific Northwest Heat Wave of 25–30 June 2021: Synoptic/Mesoscale Conditions and Climate Perspective

Abstract An unprecedented heat wave occurred over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada on 25–30 June 2021, resulting in all-time temperature records that greatly exceeded previous record maximum temperatures. The impacts were substantial, including several hundred deaths, thousands of hospitalizations, a major wildfire in Lytton, British Columbia, Canada, and severe damage to regional vegetation. Several factors came together to produce this extreme event: a record-breaking midtropospheric ridge over British Columbia in the optimal location, record-breaking midtropospheric temperatures, strong subsidence in the lower atmosphere, low-level easterly flow that produced downslope warming on regional terrain and the removal of cooler marine air, an approaching low-level trough that enhanced downslope flow, the occurrence at a time of maximum insolation, and drier-than-normal soil moisture. It is shown that all-time-record temperatures have not become more frequent and that annual high temperatures only increased at the rate of baseline global warming. Although anthropogenic warming may have contributed as much as 1°C to the event, there is little evidence of further amplification from increasing greenhouse gases. Weather forecasts were excellent for this event, with highly accurate predictions of the extreme temperatures. Significance Statement This paper describes the atmospheric evolution that produced an extreme heat wave over the Pacific Northwest during June 2021 and puts this event into historical perspective.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Space-based quantum networking in the presence of a nuclear disturbed environment

Space-based quantum networks provide a means for near-term long-distance transmission of quantum information. Here this article analyzed the performance of a downlink quantum network between a low-Earth-orbit satellite and an observatory operating in less-than-ideal atmospheric conditions. The effects from fog, haze, and a nuclear disturbed environment on the long-range distribution of quantum states were investigated. A density matrix that estimates the quantum state by capturing the effects from increased signal loss and elevated background noise to estimate the state fidelity of the transmitted quantum state was developed. It was found that the nuclear disturbed environment and other atmospheric effects have a degrading effect on the quantum state. These environments impede the ability to perform quantum communications for the duration of the effects. In the case of the nuclear disturbed environment, the nuclear effects subside quickly, and network performance should return to normal by the next satellite pass.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Concrete Testing Case for Closure of Handford’s 241-C Underground Storage Tanks

Sixty percent of the nation's highly toxic and radioactive mixed wastes are stored at Hanford in 177 deteriorating underground storage tanks. To close or remove these storage tanks from service and place them in a condition that is protective of human health and the environment, the tanks must be physically stabilized to prevent subsidence once wastes have been retrieved. Remaining residual liquid waste in the tanks that cannot be removed must be solidified and the solid wastes encapsulated to meet the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, and the State of Washington requirements. The Department of Energy has developed cementitious flowable concretes to restrict access and provide chemical stabilization for radionuclides. Formulation, laboratory, and field testing for application at Hanford began with flowable, self-leveling structural and non-structural fills. A slump flow equal to or greater than 610 mm, 0% bleed water, and 0.1% (by volume) shrinkage measurements were key parameters guiding reformulation efforts that resulted in highly flowable, self-consolidating concretes that met Hanford 241-C Tank closure short- and long-term regulatory and engineering performance requirements.

formula development↗

Spatially Averaged Ice Contents of Ice-Wedge Polygon Cross-Sections to 3-m Depth, July 2013, Utqiagvik, Alaska

This dataset contains spatially averaged estimates of ice content (volume percent) for two-dimensional cross-sectional profiles (from trough center to trough center to a depth of 3 meters) of low- and flat-centered ice-wedge polygons (three of each type) located near Utqiagvik, Alaska. A combination of soil pits, trenches, and cores were used to describe, sample, and map the cross-section stratigraphy of soil horizons and ice wedges for each polygon at 6 depth intervals. Observed soil horizons were assigned to four types with increasing amounts of organic components (mineral, mineral/organic, organic/mineral, and organic). The average ice contents of each soil horizon type below the permafrost boundary and wedge ice were weighted by their cross-sectional area fractions to calculate spatially averaged estimates of ice content for each polygon. In the active layer, spatially averaged estimates of volumetric water contents were similarly determined and reported here as “ice” content to enable estimates of the soil’s structurally competent porosity and excess ice in permafrost layers. In this dataset, the file AK13_ice_contents.csv includes cross-sectional area fractions and spatially averaged ice contents for soil layers and horizon types at the six depth intervals. The file AK13_permafrost_ice_fractions.csv contains the calculated partitioning of ice contents into pore ice and excess ice fractions for the three permafrost-dominated depth intervals. In addition, there is a data dictionary file for each of these data files and a file-level metadata file. These data were generated by the Department of Energy’s Soil Carbon Response to Environmental Change Scientific Focus Area and were used as inputs to model simulations examining the consequences of thaw-affected subsidence and microtopography change on active layer thickness of low-relief polygonal tundra landscapes in a warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Survival and Age at Maturity in Head-Started Wood Turtles ( Glyptemys insculpta ) with Implications for Population Recovery

A small relict population of Glyptemys insculpta (Wood Turtle) was discovered on a protected area in New Jersey in 2006. Marking and radio-tracking of the old founder individuals helped to determine movement patterns and habitat use. Monitoring of nesting females revealed that nesting habitat and nest success was limited due to invasive plants, human landscape alteration, and Procyon lotor (Raccoon) depredation. We initiated habitat restoration including creation of protected nesting areas, mowing in winter, invasive plant removal, and adjacent landowner education. Here, we direct-released hatchlings from protected nests from 2006 to 2015, yet only a few were detected in subsequent years. Between 2011 and 2023, some or all of each hatchling cohort were head-started indoors at a high school for 9 months. We have continuously radio-tracked all head-starts from the 2011 cohort and portions of the 2012–2014 cohorts. Head-started turtles found their own food, established home ranges, and hibernated communally with founder adults. Subsidized Raccoons, mowers, automobiles, and flooding events—all human-instigated—were the causes of mortality. The first males and first females from the 2011 head-start cohort reached maturity in 2017 and 2019, respectively, at ages 6–8, younger than expected by 4–5 years. Successful reproduction by head-starts was confirmed by viable hatchlings produced in 2019, 2020, and 2023. Head-starting can pull a relict population out of the nose-dive to extirpation when used in conjunction with habitat-restoration practices, but it must be conducted with persistence and continuity over at least the number of years it takes for the earliest cohorts to reach maturity and begin producing offspring of their own.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F US-Bi2 Bouldin Island corn

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Bi2 Bouldin Island corn. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site US-Bi2 Bouldin Island corn produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - Corn field on Bouldin Island in the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta. This site has deep peat that was drained for farming. Over the past 100 years there has been excessive subsidence of the peat in the Delta region. The corn is usually harvested for silage cattle feed. Corn was planted in the field 2017-2023. Sorghum was planted in the field 2024.

Rey-Sanchez, Camilo↗