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At least 91 records · Page 5

Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Aging phenomena in the two-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation

The complex Ginzburg-Landau equation with additive noise is a stochastic partial differential equation that describes a remarkably wide range of physical systems which include coupled non-linear oscillators subject to external noise near a Hopf bifurcation instability and spontaneous structure formation in non-equilibrium systems, e.g., in cyclically competing populations or oscillatory chemical reactions. Here, we employ a finite-difference method to numerically solve the noisy complex Ginzburg-Landau equation on a two-dimensional domain with the goal to investigate its non-equilibrium dynamics when the system is quenched into the “defocusing spiral quadrant”. We observe slow coarsening dynamics as oppositely charged topological defects annihilate each other, and characterize the ensuing aging scaling behavior. We conclude that the physical aging features in this system are governed by non-universal aging scaling exponents. We also investigate systems with control parameters residing in the “focusing quadrant”, and identify slow aging kinetics in that regime as well. Finally, we provide heuristic criteria for the existence of slow coarsening dynamics and physical aging behavior in the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Formulation and solution approach for calibrating activity-based travel demand model-system via microsimulation

This study addresses the problem of calibrating utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based travel demand model-systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model-system’s parameters prior to their application in transportation planning, policy making, and operations. However, calibration of activity-based model-systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider the fundamental inter-dependencies among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other purely simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this study, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model-systems and calibrating aggregate statistics such as activity shares, mode shares, time-dependent & mode-specific OD flows, and time-dependent & mode-specific sensor counts. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expectations of the aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function —that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model-system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex, highly nonlinear, and potentially has multiple-minima. Lastly, we show —through a real-world application— that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model-systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Scalable and Memory-Efficient Algorithms for Controlling Networked Epidemic Processes Using Multiplicative Weights Update Method

We study the problem of designing scalable algorithms to find effective intervention strategies for controlling stochastic epidemic processes on networks. This is a common problem arising in agent based models for epidemic spread. Previous approaches to this problem focus on either heuristics with no guarantees or approximation algorithms that scale only to networks corresponding to county-sized populations, typically, with less than a million nodes. In particular, the mathematical-programming based approaches need to solve the Linear Program (LP) relaxation of the problem using an LP solver, which restricts the scalability of this approach. In this work, we overcome this restriction by designing an algorithm that adapts the multiplicative weights update (MWU) framework, along with the sample average approximation (SAA) technique, to approximately solve the linear program (LP) relaxation for the problem. To scale this approach further, we provide a memory-efficient algorithm that enables scaling to large networks, corresponding to country-size populations, with over 300 million nodes and 30 billion edges. Furthermore, we show that this approach provides near-optimal solutions to the LP in practice.

Sambaturu, Prathyush↗

Individual doses for super cohort members exposed to atmospheric radioiodine from the Mayak releases with an emphasis on prenatal doses

Time-dependent thyroid doses were reconstructed for 45,837 members of the Southern Urals Population Exposed to Radiation Cohort (SUPER-C) living in the region around the Mayak Production Association facilities in Russia from 131I released to the atmosphere from all relevant exposure pathways. The dose calculations are implemented in a Monte Carlo framework that produces best estimates and stochastic realizations of dose time-histories. The mean thyroid dose from 131I for SUPER-C members was 195 mGy; the median was 65 mGy. Overall, 131I-thyroid doses for about 3.6% of SUPER-C members were larger than 1 Gy. For children born in 1940-1950, the dose was about 10% higher than in previous studies because doses during the prenatal period for 9,117 individuals are included in the current work. Half of the individuals born in the region in 1950–1960 who remained in the study domain through 1972 received 9.4% or more of their total dose during the prenatal period. SUPER-C members residing in areas contaminated by discharges of liquid radioactive releases into the Techa River and the Kyshtym Accident in 1957 received 80% of their thyroid dose from airborne 131I emissions. The uncertainty in the 131I dose estimates is low enough for this approach to be used in regional epidemiological studies.

Dose assessment, 131I, airborne radioactivity, thy↗

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing mechanisms for microbial taxa and community dynamics using process models

Disentangling the assembly mechanisms controlling community composition, structure, distribution, functions, and dynamics is a central issue in ecology. Although various approaches have been proposed to examine community assembly mechanisms, quantitative characterization is challenging, particularly in microbial ecology. Here, we present a novel approach for quantitatively delineating community assembly mechanisms by combining the consumer–resource model with a neutral model in stochastic differential equations. Using time-series data from anaerobic bioreactors that target microbial 16S rRNA genes, we tested the applicability of three ecological models: the consumer–resource model, the neutral model, and the combined model. Our results revealed that model performances varied substantially as a function of population abundance and/or process conditions. The combined model performed best for abundant taxa in the treatment bioreactors where process conditions were manipulated. In contrast, the neutral model showed the best performance for rare taxa. Our analysis further indicated that immigration rates decreased with taxa abundance and competitions between taxa were strongly correlated with phylogeny, but within a certain phylogenetic distance only. The determinism underlying taxa and community dynamics were quantitatively assessed, showing greater determinism in the treatment bioreactors that aligned with the subsequent abnormal system functioning. Given its mechanistic basis, the framework developed here is expected to be potentially applicable beyond microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator)

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator) is a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool for wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers and industry consultants to estimate the potential for soaring raptors to interact with operating wind turbines, without the need for site-specific data collection. Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has exposed the risk of turbine collisions for birds and bats. The risk to obligate soaring raptors such as golden eagles is of particular concern due to their small population and influence on ecological balance. Golden eagles rely heavily on updrafts to subsidize their flight, putting them in direct conflict with operational wind turbines that utilize the same wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors with varying atmospheric conditions is crucial for predicting and mitigating the risk of turbine collision. This software contains a predictive movement model that simulates individual flight paths of golden eagles during updraft-subsidized long-distance flight, including migration. For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates thousands of eagles at turbine-scale spatial resolution (50m) to produce a relative presence density map. The simulated eagles rely on updrafts to pursue uninterrupted directional flight with minimal energy expenditure, following fluid-flow principles. The simulator includes a stochastic model of eagle behavior and a systematic method of accounting for spatiotemporal variations in atmospheric conditions. This framework only requires publicly available atmospheric data to estimate orographic and thermal updrafts, ensuring general usability.

Sandhu, Rimple↗

Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

Significance Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. Here, we develop a general approach bridging across these timescales and demonstrate how to incorporate population heterogeneity into a wide class of epidemiological models. We demonstrate that a fragile state of transient collective immunity emerges during early, high-paced stages of the epidemic, leading to suppression of individual epidemic waves. However, this state is not an indication of lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to stochastic changes in individual social activity. Parameters of transient collective immunity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic in several US locations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Suppressing Excessive Light Rain on Aerosol Radiative Effects and Health Risks

Global climate models (GCMs) have been used widely to study radiative forcing and health risks of aerosols. A recent study using two GCMs found that light rain plays a dominant role in controlling aerosol loading. However, “too much light rain and too little heavy rain” is a longstanding bias in GCMs. It is unclear how much light rain affects aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions and health risks from air pollution. Here, in this work, we show that, with the correction of the rainfall intensity spectrum in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 by introducing a stochastic deep convection scheme, the reduced frequency of light rain (1–20 mm d -1 ) results in changes of aerosol direct radiative effects (DRE) of up to -0.5 ± 0.03 W/m 2 and aerosol cloud radiative effects (CRE) of up to -0.9 ± 0.03 W/m 2 . The total (CRE + DRE) radiative effects of light rain-mediated aerosol changes exceed the present-day anthropogenic forcing of aerosols relative to preindustrial levels from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5&6) models. However, the correction of the rainfall intensity spectrum has little effect on anthropogenic aerosol forcing (defined as the radiative perturbation due to changes in aerosol concentrations between the industrial era and preindustrial levels). Due to increased exposure to fine particulates (PM 2.5 ), the estimated global total premature mortality is much higher than previously estimated, by 300,000 ± 60,000 deaths per year, and is more severe in populous regions such as India and China. The findings in this study highlight the need to understand uncertainties in radiative effects and health risks of aerosols due to simulation biases of precipitation in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Breakups are complicated: an efficient representation of collisional breakup in the superdroplet method

Abstract. A key constraint of particle-based methods for modeling cloud microphysics is the conservation of total particle number, which is required for computational tractability. The process of collisional breakup poses a particular challenge to this framework, as breakup events often produce many droplet fragments of varying sizes, which would require creating new particles in the system. This work introduces a representation of collisional breakup in the so-called “superdroplet” method which conserves the total number of superdroplets in the system. This representation extends an existing stochastic collisional-coalescence scheme and samples from a fragment size distribution in an additional Monte Carlo step. This method is demonstrated in a set of idealized box model and single-column warm-rain simulations. We further discuss the effects of the breakup dynamic and fragment size distribution on the particle size distribution, hydrometeor population, and microphysical process rates. Box model experiments serve to characterize the impacts of properties such as coalescence efficiency and fragmentation function on the relative roles of collisional breakup and coalescence. The results demonstrate that this representation of collisional breakup can produce a stationary particle size distribution, in which breakup and coalescence rates are approximately equal, and that it recovers expected behavior such as a reduction in precipitate-sized particles in the column model. The breakup algorithm presented here contributes to an open-source pythonic implementation of the superdroplet method, PySDM, which will facilitate future research using particle-based microphysics.

de Jong, Emily (ORCID:0000000253104554)↗

Ultrafast Relaxations in Ruthenium Polypyridyl Chromophores Determined by Stochastic Kinetics Simulations

Maximizing the efficiency of solar energy conversion using dye assemblies rests on understanding where the energy goes following absorption. Transient spectroscopies in solution are useful for this purpose, and the time-resolved data are usually analyzed with a sum of exponentials. This treatment assumes that dynamic events are well separated in time, and that the resulting exponential prefactors and phenomenological lifetimes are related directly to primary physical values. Such assumptions break down for coincident absorption, emission, and excited state relaxation that occur in transient absorption and photoluminescence of tris(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(2+) derivatives, confounding the physical meaning of the reported lifetimes. Here, we use inductive modeling and stochastic chemical kinetics to develop a detailed description of the primary ultrafast photophysics in transient spectroscopies of a series of Ru dyes, as an alternative to sums of exponential analysis. Commonly invoked three-level schemes involving absorption, intersystem crossing (ISC), and slow nonradiative relaxation and incoherent emission to the ground state cannot reproduce the experimentally measured spectra. The kinetics simulations reveal that ultrafast decay from the singlet excited state manifold to the ground state competes with ISC to the triplet excited state, whose efficiency was determined to be less than unity. The populations predicted by the simulations are used to estimate the magnitudes of transition dipoles for excited state excitations and evaluate the influence of specific ligands. The mechanistic framework and methodology presented here are entirely general, applicable to other dye classes, and can be extended to include charge injection by molecules bound to semiconductor surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Comparative Study on Representativeness and Stochastic Efficacy of Miniature Tensile Specimen Testing

Here, in this article, a miniature dog bone tensile coupon design was tested against the existing ASTM standard specimen design. Specimens were prepared from commercially sourced austenitic stainless steel 304 alloy, and a defect-ridden additively manufactured 304L alloy was studied. By utilizing a tensile specimen design that is 1/230th volume of the smallest ASTM E8-04(2016), Standard Test Methods for Tension Testing of Metallic Materials, dog bone specimen, coupled to a digital image correlation (DIC) setup, case studies were performed to compare tensile property measurements and strain field evolution. Whereas yield strength measurements were observed to be similar, post-yield, the ultimate strength measurements and ductility measurements from the miniature specimens were observed to be higher than the ASTM specimen design. Although the strength measurements were comparable, the strain evolution was found to differ in the miniature specimens. Studies to assess effects of varying thickness and defect population were also pursued on the miniature tensile specimen. From the DIC strain field estimations, the peak local strain values at ultimate tensile strength were observed to be increasing with reducing specimen thickness. Testing of defect ridden stainless steel revealed the sensitivity to failure through strain localization and the influence of defect size was captured in the strength measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Galactic ArchaeoLogIcaL ExcavatiOns (GALILEO) II. t-SNE portrait of local fossil relics and structures

Based on high-quality Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) DR17 and Gaia DR3 data for 1742 red giants stars within 5 kpc of the Sun and not rotating with the Galactic disk (V φ < 100 km s -1 ), we used the nonlinear technique of unsupervised analysis t-Distributed Stochastic Neighbor Embedding (t-SNE) to detect coherent structures in the space of ten chemical-abundance ratios: [Fe/H], [O/Fe], [Mg/Fe], [Si/Fe], [Ca/Fe], [C/Fe], [N/Fe], [Al/Fe], [Mn/Fe], and [Ni/Fe]. Additionally, we obtained orbital parameters for each star using the nonaxisymmetric gravitational potential GravPot16. Seven structures are detected, including Splash, Gaia-Sausage-Enceladus (GSE), the high-α heated-disk population, N-C-O peculiar stars, and inner disk-like stars, plus two other groups that did not match anything previously reported in the literature, here named Galileo 5 and Galileo 6 (G5 and G6). These two groups overlap with Splash in [Fe/H], with G5 having a lower metallicity than G6, and they are both between GSE and Splash in the [Mg/Mn] versus [Al/Fe] plane, with G5 being in the α-rich in situ locus and G6 on the border of the α-poor in situ one. Nonetheless, their low [Ni/Fe] hints at a possible ex situ origin. Their orbital energy distributions are between Splash and GSE, with G5 being slightly more energetic than G6. We verified the robustness of all the obtained groups by exploring a large range of t-SNE parameters, applying it to various subsets of data, and also measuring the effect of abundance errors through Monte Carlo tests.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterization of beam ion loss in high poloidal beta regime on EAST

A critical issue for achieving the integrated operation of steady-state long-pulse high-confinement (H-mode) plasmas on experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST) is to improve beam ion population confinement during neutral beam injection (NBI). To study the characterization of beam ion loss and improve beam ion confinement, the steady-state long pulse scenario discharges were conducted on EAST (β p $\geqslant$ 2.0, β N $\geqslant$ 1.7, q 95 $\geqslant$ 6.7 and H 98y2 $\geqslant$ 1.1) with NBI heating. Based on neutron yield, the beam voltage and line-averaged electron density were adjusted from 50 kV to 60 kV and 4.4 × 10 19 m –3 to 5.0 × 10 19 m –3 , respectively. The results show that the dominant mechanisms of beam ion loss are shine-through loss, prompt loss, and stochastic ripple loss. The shine-through loss fraction is determined by initial velocity, flight time and entire beam path. The change in prompt loss fraction is caused by the change in the deposition of beam ions. The change in stochastic ripple loss fraction is caused by the change in the initial fraction of trapped-confined ions. Detailed physics shows that the prompt loss fraction during counter-Ip injections (~45%) is far larger than during co-Ip injections (~5%) due to the finite orbit width. The lost ions are mainly deposited on the lower divertor or below the midplane since the direction of magnetic drift is vertical down. The orbit types of prompt loss during counter-Ip injections are mainly trapped-lost and ctr-passing lost. To minimize the prompt loss fraction during counter-Ip injections, a reversed Ip configuration (rev-Ip) discharge #94758 was conducted. The result suggests that the beam ion wall load fraction during counter-Ip tangential injection (~3%) is far lower than that in normal Ip configuration (nor-Ip) discharge #94820. It is also found that the confinement of beam ion population in the counter-Ip injection #94758 was greatly improved when compared to #94820. Finally, this study can provide unique support for the improvement of beam ion population confinement and for the performance evaluation of the NBI system on EAST and future tokamaks.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Generation and suppression of runaway electrons in MST tokamak plasmas

This paper discusses the behavior of runaway electrons in tokamak plasmas at low electron density, plasma current, and magnetic field using experimental data from the Madison Symmetric Torus and computational data from the NIMROD nonlinear resistive 3D MHD code. Density thresholds for the onset and suppression of runaway electrons are determined experimentally in steady tokamak plasmas, and in plasmas with a population of runaway electrons, resonant magnetic perturbations with different poloidal mode numbers are applied. Poloidal mode number m = 3 perturbations suppress the runaway electrons, while perturbations with m = 1 have little effect. This difference is consistent with the difference in computed magnetic topologies. The m = 1 RMP has minimal effect on the topology, while the m = 3 RMP produces a broad region of stochasticity, which can allow for rapid loss of the runaway electrons.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

The dark side of galaxy stellar populations – II. The dependence of star-formation histories on halo mass and on the scatter of the main sequence

Nearby galaxies are the end result of their cosmological evolution, which is predicted to be influenced by the growth of their host dark matter haloes. This co-evolution potentially leaves signatures in present-day observed galaxy properties, which might be essential to further understand how the growth and properties of galaxies are connected to those of their host haloes. In this work, we study the evolutionary histories of nearby galaxies both in terms of their host haloes and the scatter of the star-forming main sequence by investigating their time-resolved stellar populations using absorption optical spectra drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that galaxy star-formation histories depend on the masses of their host haloes, and hence they shape the evolution of the star-forming main sequence over cosmic time. Additionally, we also find that the scatter around the z = 0 star-forming main sequence is not (entirely) stochastic, as galaxies with currently different star-formation rates have experienced, on average, different star-formation histories. Furthermore, our findings suggest that dark matter haloes might play a key role in modulating the evolution of star formation in galaxies, and thus of the main sequence, and further demonstrate that galaxies at different evolutionary stages contribute to the observed scatter of this relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Utilizing cosmic-ray positron and electron observations to probe the averaged properties of Milky Way pulsars

Pulsars have long been studied in the electromagnetic spectrum. Their environments are rich in high-energy cosmic-ray electrons and positrons likely enriching the interstellar medium with such particles. In this work we use recent cosmic-ray observations from the AMS-02, CALET and DAMPE collaborations to study the averaged properties of the local Milky Way pulsar population. We perform simulations of the local Milky Way pulsar population, for interstellar medium assumptions in agreement with a range of cosmic-ray nuclei measurements. Each such simulation contains $\sim 10^{4}$ pulsars of unique age, location, initial spin-down power and cosmic-ray electron/positron spectra. We produce more than $7 \times 10^3$ such Milky Way pulsar simulations. Further, we account for and study i) the pulsars' birth rates and the stochastic nature of their birth, ii) their initial spin-down power distribution, iii) their time evolution in terms of their braking index and characteristic spin-down timescale, iv) the fraction of spin-down power going to cosmic-ray electrons and positrons and v) their propagation through the interstellar medium and the Heliosphere. We find that pulsars of ages $\sim 10^{5}-10^{7}$ yr, have a braking index that on average has to be 3 or larger. Given that electromagnetic spectrum observations of young pulsars find braking indices lower than 3, our work provides strong hints that pulsars' braking index increases on average as they age, allowing them to retain some of their rotational energy. Moreover, we find that pulsars have relatively uniform properties as sources of cosmic-ray electrons and positrons in terms of the spectra they produce and likely release $O(10\%)$ of their rotational energy to cosmic rays in the ISM. Finally, we find at $\simeq$12 GeV positrons a spectral feature that suggests a new subpopulation of positron sources contributing at these energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗