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NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Lightning Incidence to Elements of a Complex Structure: A Monte Carlo Approach

There are complex structures for which the installation and positioning of the lightning protection system (LPS) cannot be done using the lightning protection standard guidelines. As a result, there are some "unprotected" or "exposed" areas. In an effort to quantify the lightning threat to these areas, a Monte Carlo statistical tool has been developed. This statistical tool uses two random number generators: a uniform distribution to generate origins of downward propagating leaders and a lognormal distribution to generate returns stroke peak currents. Downward leaders propagate vertically downward and their striking distances are defined by the polarity and peak current. Following the electrogeometrical concept, we assume that the leader attaches to the closest object within its striking distance. The statistical analysis is run for 10,000 years with an assumed ground flash density and peak current distributions, and the output of the program is the probability of direct attachment to objects of interest with its corresponding peak current distribution.

Mata, Carlos T.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Lightning Incidence to Elements of a Complex Structure: A Monte Carlo Approach

There are complex structures for which the installation and positioning of the lightning protection system (LPS) cannot be done using the lightning protection standard guidelines. As a result, there are some "unprotected" or "exposed" areas. In an effort to quantify the lightning threat to these areas, a Monte Carlo statistical tool has been developed. This statistical tool uses two random number generators: a uniform distribution to generate the origin of downward propagating leaders and a lognormal distribution to generate the corresponding returns stroke peak currents. Downward leaders propagate vertically downward and their striking distances are defined by the polarity and peak current. Following the electrogeometrical concept, we assume that the leader attaches to the closest object within its striking distance. The statistical analysis is run for N number of years with an assumed ground flash density and the output of the program is the probability of direct attachment to objects of interest with its corresponding peak current distribution.

Mata, Carlos T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Effects of Lightning and Other Meteorological Factors on Fire Activity in the North American Boreal Forest: Implications for Fire Weather Forecasting

The effects of lightning and other meteorological factors on wildfire activity in the North American boreal forest are statistically analyzed during the fire seasons of 2000-2006 through an integration of the following data sets: the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) level 2 fire products, the 3-hourly 32-kin gridded meteorological data from North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the lightning data collected by the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN) and the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). Positive anomalies of the 500 hPa geopotential height field, convective available potential energy (CAPE), number of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, and the number of consecutive dry days are found to be statistically important to the seasonal variation of MODIS fire counts in a large portion of Canada and the entirety of Alaska. Analysis of fire occurrence patterns in the eastern and western boreal forest regions shows that dry (in the absence of precipitation) lightning strikes account for only 20% of the total lightning strikes, but are associated with (and likely cause) 40% of the MODIS observed fire counts in these regions. The chance for ignition increases when a threshold of at least 10 dry strikes per NARR grid box and at least 10 consecutive dry days is reached. Due to the orientation of the large-scale pattern, complex differences in fire and lightning occurrence and variability were also found between the eastern and western sub-regions. Locations with a high percentage of dry strikes commonly experience an increased number of fire counts, but the mean number of fire counts per dry strike is more than 50% higher in western boreal forest sub-region, suggesting a geographic and possible topographic influence. While wet lightning events are found to occur with a large range of CAPE values, a high probability for dry lightning occurs only when 500 hPa geopotential heights are above 5700m and CAPE values are near the maximum observed level, underscoring the importance of low-level instability to boreal fire weather forecasts-

Peterson, D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Weekly Cycle of Lightning: Evidence of Storm Invigoration by Pollution

We have examined summertime 1998 2009 U.S. lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to look for weekly cycles in lightning activity. As was found by Bell et al. (2008) for rain over the southeast U.S., there is a significant weekly cycle in afternoon lightning activity that peaks in the middle of the week there. The weekly cycle appears to be reduced over population centers. Lightning activity peaks on weekends over waters near the SE U.S. The statistical significance of weekly cycles over the western half of the country is generally small. We found no evidence of a weekly cycle of synoptic-scale forcing that might explain these patterns. The lightning behavior is entirely consistent with the explanation suggested by Bell et al. (2008) for the cycles in rainfall and other atmospheric data from the SE U.S., that aerosols can cause storms to intensify in humid, convectively unstable environments.

Bell, Thomas L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Timing Study

NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS that allows forecasters to visualize the climatological frequencies of the timing of the first lightning strike. This tool should contribute directly to the 45 WS goal of improving lightning timing capability for its NASA, US Air Force and commercial customers.

statistical analysis↗
NASA NTRS2016

Automated Storm Tracking and the Lightning Jump Algorithm Using GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy Data

This study develops a fully automated lightning jump system encompassing objective storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data, and the lightning jump algorithm (LJA), which are important elements in the transition of the LJA concept from a research to an operational based algorithm. Storm cluster tracking is based on a product created from the combination of a radar parameter (vertically integrated liquid, VIL), and lightning information (flash rate density). Evaluations showed that the spatial scale of tracked features or storm clusters had a large impact on the lightning jump system performance, where increasing spatial scale size resulted in decreased dynamic range of the system's performance. This framework will also serve as a means to refine the LJA itself to enhance its operational applicability. Parameters within the system are isolated and the system's performance is evaluated with adjustments to parameter sensitivity. The system's performance is evaluated using the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) statistics. Of the algorithm parameters tested, sigma-level (metric of lightning jump strength) and flash rate threshold influenced the system's performance the most. Finally, verification methodologies are investigated. It is discovered that minor changes in verification methodology can dramatically impact the evaluation of the lightning jump system.

lightning jump↗
NASA NTRS2011

GLM Proxy Data Generation: Methods for Stroke/Pulse Level Inter-Comparison of Ground-Based Lightning Reference Networks

In order to produce useful proxy data for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in regions not covered by VLF lightning mapping systems, we intend to employ data produced by ground-based (regional or global) VLF/LF lightning detection networks. Before using these data in GLM Risk Reduction tasks, it is necessary to have a quantitative understanding of the performance of these networks, in terms of CG flash/stroke DE, cloud flash/pulse DE, location accuracy, and CLD/CG classification error. This information is being obtained through inter-comparison with LMAs and well-quantified VLF/LF lightning networks. One of our approaches is to compare "bulk" counting statistics on the spatial scale of convective cells, in order to both quantify relative performance and observe variations in cell-based temporal trends provided by each network. In addition, we are using microsecond-level stroke/pulse time correlation to facilitate detailed inter-comparisons at a more-fundamental level. The current development status of our ground-based inter-comparison and evaluation tools will be presented, and performance metrics will be discussed through a comparison of Vaisala s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) with the NLDN at locations within and outside the U.S.

Cummins, Kenneth L.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A correlation

The paper reports on some correlative features of two sets of space-based atmospheric measurements which are globally distributed with good statistical coverage. One set of data, pertaining to tropospheric processes, is lightning occurrence frequency derived from measurements aboard the DMSP satellite. The second set of data, pertaining to thermospheric processes, is the occurrence frequency of wavelike structures in neutral atmospheric density profiles derived from measurements aboard AE-C and AE-D. A significant correlation was found between the occurrence patterns of dawn lightning, which is indicative of massive long-lived tropospheric convective activity, and the occurrence patterns of wavelike structures in the thermosphere.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1991

First and subsequent return stroke properties of cloud-to-ground lightning

Lightning properties obtained by a network of magnetic direction finders and by electric field measurements for distances from 50 to 500 km are compared for three summer thunderstorms in Sweden. The data from direct field recordings indicate 31, 17, and 26 pcts. of negative subsequent return strokes with peak current (as inferred from the peak electric field) higher than the first. Electric fields from first strokes are compared with normalized amplitudes registered by the magnetic direction finding system. The efficiency of detection by the magnetic direction finding system is discussed in terms of the percentage of lightning flashes observed by electric field measurements that are not localized. Statistics of the number of strokes per flash and the interstroke time intervals are presented.

Namasivayam, S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Data simulation for the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

This project aims to build a data analysis system that will utilize existing video tape scenes of lightning as viewed from space. The resultant data will be used for the design and development of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) software and algorithm analysis. The desire for statistically significant metrics implies that a large data set needs to be analyzed. Before 1990 the quality and quantity of video was insufficient to build a usable data set. At this point in time, there is usable data from missions STS-34, STS-32, STS-31, STS-41, STS-37, and STS-39. During the summer of 1990, a manual analysis system was developed to demonstrate that the video analysis is feasible and to identify techniques to deduce information that was not directly available. Because the closed circuit television system used on the space shuttle was intended for documentary TV, the current value of the camera focal length and pointing orientation, which are needed for photoanalysis, are not included in the system data. A large effort was needed to discover ancillary data sources as well as develop indirect methods to estimate the necessary parameters. Any data system coping with full motion video faces an enormous bottleneck produced by the large data production rate and the need to move and store the digitized images. The manual system bypassed the video digitizing bottleneck by using a genlock to superimpose pixel coordinates on full motion video. Because the data set had to be obtained point by point by a human operating a computer mouse, the data output rate was small. The loan and subsequent acquisition of a Abekas digital frame store with a real time digitizer moved the bottleneck from data acquisition to a problem of data transfer and storage. The semi-automated analysis procedure was developed using existing equipment and is described. A fully automated system is described in the hope that the components may come on the market at reasonable prices in the next few years.

Boeck, William L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Efficient detection, analysis and classification of lightning radiation fields

Modeling the large scale lightning flash structure is considered. Large scale flash data has been measured from strip charts of storms of August 5, August 26, and September 12, 1975. The data is being processed by a computer program called SASEV to estimate the large scale flash statistics. The program, experimental results, and conclusions for the large scale flash structure are described. The progress made in examining the internal flash structure consists mainly of developing the software required to process the NASA digital tape data. A FORTRAN program has been written for the statistical analysis of series of events. The statistics computed and tests performed are found to be particularly useful in the analysis of lightning data.

Harger, R. O.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Average diurnal variation of summer lightning over the Florida peninsula

Data derived from a large network of electric field mills are used to determine the average diurnal variation of lightning in a Florida seacoast environment. The variation at the NASA Kennedy Space Center and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station area is compared with standard weather observations of thunder, and the variation of all discharges in this area is compared with the statistics of cloud-to-ground flashes over most of the South Florida peninsula and offshore waters. The results show average diurnal variations that are consistent with statistics of thunder start times and the times of maximum thunder frequency, but that the actual lightning tends to stop one to two hours before the recorded thunder. The variation is also consistent with previous determinations of the times of maximum rainfall and maximum rainfall rate.

Maier, L. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Space-Borne Observations of Intense Gamma-Ray Flashes Above Thunderstorms

Intense millisecond flashes of MeV photons were discovered with the space-borne detectors of the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) aboard the Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory (CGRO). These flashes originate at altitudes above at least 30 km, in order to be observable by the orbiting detectors. Over the entire CGRO mission, from 1991 until 2000, about 70 of these events were observed. Nearly all TGFs had short (millisecond) durations and sub-ms rise-times and fall-times, however a small fraction of them had longer timescales associated with them. Most were single pulses, but about a dozen had double pulses and a few had more than two pulses. The TGFs are observed in a photon-by-photon recording mode, with each photon from eight independent detectors being tagged to the nearest two microseconds in four energy channels. The TGFs show very hard spectra, in most cases there are more photons recorded above 300 keV than below. Several of the TGFs were also recorded by the thicker (but smaller area) spectroscopy detectors that provided improved spectral resolution than the large area detectors. The temporal and spectral characteristics of the events and the capabilities of the detectors will be described in more detail than the in the original paper. The association of TGFs with thunderstorms is primarily statistical; the TGFs show a strong correlation with the global distribution of lightning, as observed with recent satellites. There has also been an association based upon coincidences with spheric events, however, this association is debatable due to the high spherics rate and the non-directionality of the detectors. This talk gives an update of the BATSE observations of TGFs were published by the BATSE instrument team over ten years ago.

Fishman, Jerry↗
NASA NTRS2005

Midweek Intensification of Rain in the U.S.: Does Air Pollution Invigorate Storms?

The effect of pollution on rainfall has been observed to depend both on the type of pollution and the precipitating environment. The climatological consequences of pollution for rainfall are uncertain. In some urban areas, pollution varies with the day of the week because of weekly variations in human activity, in effect providing a repeated experiment on the effects of pollution. Weekly variations in temperature, pressure, cloud characteristics, hails and lightning are observed in many areas. Observing a weekly cycle in rainfall statistics has proven to be more difficult, although there is some evidence for it. Here we examine rainfall statistics from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite over the southern U.S. and adjacent waters, and find that there is a distinct, statistically significant weekly cycle in summertime rainfall over the southeast U.S., as well as weekly variations in rainfall over the nearby Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico. Rainfall over land peaks in the middle of the week, suggesting that summer rainfall on large scales may increase as pollution levels rise. Both rain statistics over land and what appear to be compensating effects over adjacent seas support the suggestion that air pollution invigorates convection and outflow aloft.

Bell, T. L.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Forecasting Lightning Threat using Cloud-resolving Model Simulations

As numerical forecasts capable of resolving individual convective clouds become more common, it is of interest to see if quantitative forecasts of lightning flash rate density are possible, based on fields computed by the numerical model. Previous observational research has shown robust relationships between observed lightning flash rates and inferred updraft and large precipitation ice fields in the mixed phase regions of storms, and that these relationships might allow simulated fields to serve as proxies for lightning flash rate density. It is shown in this paper that two simple proxy fields do indeed provide reasonable and cost-effective bases for creating time-evolving maps of predicted lightning flash rate density, judging from a series of diverse simulation case study events in North Alabama for which Lightning Mapping Array data provide ground truth. One method is based on the product of upward velocity and the mixing ratio of precipitating ice hydrometeors, modeled as graupel only, in the mixed phase region of storms at the -15\dgc\ level, while the second method is based on the vertically integrated amounts of ice hydrometeors in each model grid column. Each method can be calibrated by comparing domainwide statistics of the peak values of simulated flash rate proxy fields against domainwide peak total lightning flash rate density data from observations. Tests show that the first method is able to capture much of the temporal variability of the lightning threat, while the second method does a better job of depicting the areal coverage of the threat. A blended solution is designed to retain most of the temporal sensitivity of the first method, while adding the improved spatial coverage of the second. Weather Research and Forecast Model simulations of selected North Alabama cases show that this model can distinguish the general character and intensity of most convective events, and that the proposed methods show promise as a means of generating quantitatively realistic fields of lightning threat. However, because models tend to have more difficulty in correctly predicting the instantaneous placement of storms, forecasts of the detailed location of the lightning threat based on single simulations can be in error. Although these model shortcomings presently limit the precision of lightning threat forecasts from individual runs of current generation models, the techniques proposed herein should continue to be applicable as newer and more accurate physically-based model versions, physical parameterizations, initialization techniques and ensembles of cloud-allowing forecasts become available.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Method for Retrieving Ground Flash Fraction from Satellite Lightning Imager Data

A general theory for retrieving the fraction of ground flashes in N lightning observed by a satellite-based lightning imager is provided. An "exponential model" is applied as a physically reasonable constraint to describe the measured optical parameter distributions, and population statistics (i.e., mean, variance) are invoked to add additional constraints to the retrieval process. The retrieval itself is expressed in terms of a Bayesian inference, and the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) solution is obtained. The approach is tested by performing simulated retrievals, and retrieval error statistics are provided. The ability to retrieve ground flash fraction has important benefits to the atmospheric chemistry community. For example, using the method to partition the existing satellite global lightning climatology into separate ground and cloud flash climatologies will improve estimates of lightning nitrogen oxides (NOx) production; this in turn will improve both regional air quality and global chemistry/climate model predictions.

Koshak, William J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Venus lightning - An update

The evidence for Venus lightning comes from three distinct sources: the Venera 11-14 landers, the Venera 9 orbiter and the Pioneer Venus orbiter. The largest data set and the one being analyzed most thoroughly at present comes the VLF electric field experiment on PVO spacecraft. Recent results show that the Poynting flux out of the atmosphere is consistent with that expected from a terrestrial sized source of lightning or possibly one much greater. Estimates of the flash rate from the statistics of impulsive signals also points to a source that is stronger than the terrestrial source. Ongoing studies of the polarization of the signals and their properties relative to their direction of propagation as well as a recalibration of the Pioneer Venus star sensor promise to provide continuing information on this phenomenon.

Russell, C. T.↗