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At least 91 records · Page 5

Update on a short-distance $D^0$-meson mixing calculation with $N_f=2+1$ flavors

We present an update on our calculation of the short-distance $D^0$-meson mixing hadronic matrix elements. The analysis is performed on the MILC collaboration's $N_f=2+1$ asqtad configurations. We use asqtad light valence quarks and the Sheikoleslami-Wohlert action with the Fermilab interpretation for the valence charm quark. SU(3), partially quenched, rooted, staggered heavy-meson chiral perturbation theory is used to extrapolate to the chiral-continuum limit. Systematic errors arising from the chiral-continuum extrapolation, heavy-quark discretization, and quark-mass uncertainties are folded into the statistical errors from the chiral-continuum fits with methods of Bayesian inference. A preliminary error budget for all five operators is presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Lensing without borders – I. A blind comparison of the amplitude of galaxy–galaxy lensing between independent imaging surveys

ABSTRACT Lensing without borders is a cross-survey collaboration created to assess the consistency of galaxy–galaxy lensing signals (ΔΣ) across different data sets and to carry out end-to-end tests of systematic errors. We perform a blind comparison of the amplitude of ΔΣ using lens samples from BOSS and six independent lensing surveys. We find good agreement between empirically estimated and reported systematic errors which agree to better than 2.3σ in four lens bins and three radial ranges. For lenses with zL > 0.43 and considering statistical errors, we detect a 3–4σ correlation between lensing amplitude and survey depth. This correlation could arise from the increasing impact at higher redshift of unrecognized galaxy blends on shear calibration and imperfections in photometric redshift calibration. At zL > 0.54, amplitudes may additionally correlate with foreground stellar density. The amplitude of these trends is within survey-defined systematic error budgets that are designed to include known shear and redshift calibration uncertainty. Using a fully empirical and conservative method, we do not find evidence for large unknown systematics. Systematic errors greater than 15 per cent (25 per cent) ruled out in three lens bins at 68 per cent (95 per cent) confidence at z < 0.54. Differences with respect to predictions based on clustering are observed to be at the 20–30 per cent level. Our results therefore suggest that lensing systematics alone are unlikely to fully explain the ‘lensing is low’ effect at z < 0.54. This analysis demonstrates the power of cross-survey comparisons and provides a promising path for identifying and reducing systematics in future lensing analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Application of Variance Reduction Techniques in RMC Burnup and Thermal-Hydraulic Coupled Calculation

In reactor analog simulation, the Monte Carlo method has relatively high fidelity since it can reduce calculation errors resulting from using approximation methods by describing complex geometry and neutron energy spectra. The Monte Carlo method is, in essence, a stochastic simulation of the neutron transport process, and statistical uncertainty of all the computed results must be provided. In large-scale reactor computation, this method can accurately estimate integral quantities such as the effective multiplication factor (K{sub eff}), and it can limit the uncertainty within an acceptable range via reasonably selecting simulation particles. Nevertheless, it faces great challenges in estimating local quantities like neutron flux and fission power, with uncertainty of estimators beyond acceptance. To decrease the uncertainty of local quantities by increasing simulation particles may cost much time and reduce efficiency. The main reasons are as follows. Firstly, the scale of reactors is so large that common pressurized water reactors have tens of thousands of lattice cells; secondly, uneven distribution of neutron flux and fission power causes uneven distribution of uncertainty. Smith K. puts forward the 95/95 principle to estimate whether uncertainty calculated with Monte Carlo Code satisfies the requirement. According to the principle, with a confidence level of 95%, statistical errors of power density in more than 95% of the regions should be less than 1%. To meet the requirement of the principle, the uniform fission site (UFS) method is raised currently. UFS aims at redistributing fission sources to uniformize the fission source sampling, which can make statistical variance distribution more uniform. This method, which is easy to use, will not obviously increase computation time. Many studies show that UFS has a good variance reduction effect in Monte Carlo criticality calculation, but less attention is paid to its performance in burnup calculation and thermal-hydraulic coupled calculation. Uncertainty arising from the Monte Carlo method has a large impact on burnup calculation and thermal-hydraulic coupled calculation. Variance propagates between burnup steps and between iterative steps of coupled calculation, which causes asymmetry of results of the physical symmetrical regions and instability of coupled iterative convergence errors. To further verify the effect of UFS, this study uses it in the RMC (the Reactor Monte Carlo code) burnup calculation module and the neutronics/thermohydraulics coupled calculation module, and conducts two-dimensional pressurized water reactor burnup calculation and BEAVRS benchmark thermalhydraulic coupled calculation. In this way, it verifies the improvement effect of UFS on variance propagation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Calculating the free energy of transfer of small solutes into a model lipid membrane: Comparison between metadynamics and umbrella sampling

We compare the performance of two well-established computational algorithms for the calculation of free-energy landscapes of biomolecular systems, umbrella sampling and metadynamics. We look at benchmark systems composed of polyethylene and polypropylene oligomers interacting with lipid (phosphatidylcholine) membranes, aiming at the calculation of the oligomer water-membrane free energy of transfer. We model our test systems at two different levels of description, united-atom and coarse-grained. We provide optimized parameters for the two methods at both resolutions. We devote special attention to the analysis of statistical errors in the two different methods and propose a general procedure for the error estimation in metadynamics simulations. Metadynamics and umbrella sampling yield the same estimates for the water-membrane free energy profile, but metadynamics can be more efficient, providing lower statistical uncertainties within the same simulation time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Impact of point spread function higher moments error on weak gravitational lensing – II. A comprehensive study

ABSTRACT Weak lensing is one of the most powerful probes for dark matter and dark energy science, although it faces increasing challenges in controlling systematic uncertainties as the statistical errors become smaller. The point spread function (PSF) needs to be precisely modeled to avoid systematic error on the weak lensing measurements. The weak lensing biases induced by errors in the PSF model second moments, i.e. its size and shape, are well-studied. However, Zhang et al. showed that errors in the higher moments of the PSF may also be a significant source of systematics for upcoming weak lensing surveys. Therefore, this work comprehensively investigate the modelling quality of PSF moments from the 3rd to 6th order, and propagate the PSFEx higher moments modelling error in the HSC survey data set to the weak lensing shear–shear correlation functions and their cosmological analyses. The overall multiplicative shear bias associated with errors in PSF higher moments can cause an ∼0.1σ shift on the cosmological parameters for LSST Y10, while the associated additive biases can induce 1σ uncertainties in cosmology parameter inference for LSST Y10, if not accounted. We compare the PSFEx model with PSF in Full FOV, and find similar performance in modelling the PSF higher moments. We conclude that PSF higher moment errors of the future PSF models should be reduced from those in current methods, otherwise needed to be explicitly modeled in the weak lensing analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 1 results: the impact of galaxy neighbours on weak lensing cosmology with IM3SHAPE

We use a suite of simulated images based on Year 1 of the Dark Energy Survey to explore the impact of galaxy neighbours on shape measurement and shear cosmology. The hoopoe image simulations include realistic blending, galaxy positions, and spatial variations in depth and PSF properties. Using the im3shape maximum-likelihood shape measurement code, we identify four mechanisms by which neighbours can have a non-negligible influence on shear estimation. These effects, if ignored, would contribute a net multiplicative bias of $m \sim 0.03 - 0.09$ in the DES Y1 im3shape catalogue, though the precise impact will be dependent on both the measurement code and the selection cuts applied. This can be reduced to percentage level or less by removing objects with close neighbours, at a cost to the effective number density of galaxies $n_\mathrm{eff}$ of 30%. We use the cosmological inference pipeline of DES Y1 to explore the cosmological implications of neighbour bias and show that omitting blending from the calibration simulation for DES Y1 would bias the inferred clustering amplitude $S_8\equiv \sigma_8 (\Omega _\mathrm{m} /0.3)^{0.5}$ by $2 \sigma$ towards low values. Lastly, we use the hoopoe simulations to test the effect of neighbour-induced spatial correlations in the multiplicative bias. We find the impact on the recovered $S_8$ of ignoring such correlations to be subdominant to statistical error at the current level of precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark matter and halo bispectrum in redshift space: theory and applications

We present a phenomenological modification of the standard perturbation theory prediction for the bispectrum in redshift space that allows us to extend the model to mildly non-linear scales over a wide range of redshifts, z≤1.5. Our model require 18 free parameters that are fitted to N-body simulations using the shapes k{sub 2}/k{sub 1}=1, 1.5, 2.0, 2.5. We find that we can describe the bispectrum of dark matter particles with ∼5% accuracy for k{sub i}∼<0.10 h/Mpc at z=0, for k{sub i}∼<0.15 h/Mpc at z=0.5, for k{sub i}∼<0.17 h/Mpc at z=1.0 and for k{sub i}∼<0.20 h/Mpc at z=1.5. For very squeezed triangles with k{sub 1}=k{sub 2}∼>0.1 hMpc{sup -1} and k{sub 3}≤0.02 hMpc{sup -1}, however, neither SPT nor the proposed fitting formula are able to describe the measured dark matter bispectrum with this accuracy. We show that the fitting formula is sufficiently general that can be applied to other intermediate shapes such as k{sub 2}/k{sub 1}=1.25, 1.75, and 2.25. We also test that the fitting formula is able to describe with similar accuracy the bispectrum of cosmologies with different Ω{sub m}, in the range 0.2∼< Ω{sub m} ∼< 0.4, and consequently with different values of the logarithmic grow rate f at z=0, 0.4∼< f(z=0) ∼< 0.6. We apply this new formula to recover the bias parameters, f and σ{sub 8}, by combining the redshift space power spectrum monopole and quadrupole with the bispectrum monopole for both dark matter particles and haloes. We find that the combination of these three statistics can break the degeneracy between b{sub 1}, f and σ{sub 8}. For dark matter particles the new model can be used to recover f and σ{sub 8} with ∼1% accuracy. For dark matter haloes we find that f and σ{sub 8} present larger systematic shifts, ∼10%. The systematic offsets arise because of limitations in the modelling of the interplay between bias and redshift space distortions, and represent a limitation as the statistical errors of forthcoming surveys reach this level. Conveniently, we find that these residual systematics are mitigated for combinations of parameters. In particular, the quantity fσ{sub 8} is still recovered with ∼1% accuracy for the particular halo population and cosmology studied. The improvement on the modelling of the bispectrum presented in this paper will be useful for extracting information from current and future galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Improving the Fidelity of Lattice QCD Calculations

I begin with an overview of the various statistical and systematic uncertainties that enter into lattice calculations in nuclear physics, and the hierarchy of computations needed to investigate them. I emphasize in particular the need to obtain as precise a statistical error as possible on a given ensemble of calculations, and the various variance reduction and algorithmic methods that have been proposed recently with the aim of minimizing the statistical uncertainties. I conclude with a description of the fitting methods used in lattice QCD calculations.

Richards, David↗

A Simplified Theory of Pile Noise

Here, a theoretical treatment is given of the statistical fluctuations in neutron population which occur in nuclear reactors. The absolute magnitude and frequency dependence of the spectral density of these fluctuations is obtained. The model used assumes that the fluctuations arise from a "noise-equivalent source" whose strength can be easily calculated from fundamental considerations. Calculations are also presented of the fundamental statistical errors in criticality measurements.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

LAMOST spectrograph response curves: Stability and application to flux calibration

The task of flux calibration for Large sky Area Multi-Object Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) spectra is difficult due to many factors, such as the lack of standard stars, flat-fielding for large field of view, and variation of reddening between different stars, especially at low Galactic latitudes. Poor selection, bad spectral quality, or extinction uncertainty of standard stars not only might induce errors to the calculated spectral response curve (SRC) but also might lead to failures in producing final 1D spectra. In this paper, we inspected spectra with Galactic latitude |b|⩾60{sup ∘} and reliable stellar parameters, determined through the LAMOST Stellar Parameter Pipeline (LASP), to study the stability of the spectrograph. To guarantee that the selected stars had been observed by each fiber, we selected 37,931 high-quality exposures of 29,000 stars from LAMOST DR2, and more than seven exposures for each fiber. We calculated the SRCs for each fiber for each exposure and calculated the statistics of SRCs for spectrographs with both the fiber variations and time variations. The result shows that the average response curve of each spectrograph (henceforth ASPSRC) is relatively stable, with statistical errors ≤10%. From the comparison between each ASPSRC and the SRCs for the same spectrograph obtained by the 2D pipeline, we find that the ASPSRCs are good enough to use for the calibration. The ASPSRCs have been applied to spectra that were abandoned by the LAMOST 2D pipeline due to the lack of standard stars, increasing the number of LAMOST spectra by 52,181 in DR2. Comparing those same targets with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), the relative flux differences between SDSS spectra and LAMOST spectra with the ASPSRC method are less than 10%, which underlines that the ASPSRC method is feasible for LAMOST flux calibration.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Systematic Uncertainties from Gribov Copies in Lattice Calculation of Parton Distributions in the Coulomb Gauge

Recently, a new method has been proposed to compute parton distributions using boosted correlators fixed in the Coulomb gauge (CG) within the framework of large-momentum effective theory. This approach, which does not involve Wilson lines, could greatly improve the efficiency and precision of lattice quantum chromodynamics calculations. However, concerns remain regarding whether systematic uncertainties from Gribov copies, which correspond to ambiguities in lattice gauge-fixing, are adequately controlled. This work assesses the effects of Gribov copies on Coulomb-gauge-fixed quark correlators. We utilize different strategies for Coulomb-gauge fixing, selecting two different groups of Gribov copies based on lattice gauge configurations. We examine the differences in the resulting spatial quark correlators in both vacuum and pion states. Our findings indicate that the statistical errors of the matrix elements from both Gribov copies, regardless of the correlation range, decrease proportionally to the square root of the number of gauge configurations. The difference between the strategies does not show statistical significance compared to the gauge noise, demonstrating that the effect of the Gribov copies can be neglected in practical lattice calculations of quark parton distributions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Monte Carlo control loops for cosmic shear cosmology with DES Year 1 data

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. Monte Carlo control loops (MCCL) is a forward modeling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the ultra fast image generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. Here, we present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_ℓ$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, point spread function (PSF), an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and a fast method to estimate the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a nontomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_ℓ$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $Ω_m$, $σ_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{IA}$, defined as $S_8D_{IA}=σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{IA}$, where $D_{IA}=1-0.11(A_{IA}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{IA}=0.8954_{-0.039}^{+0.054}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Compensation for nonlinear effects in an optical orthogonal frequency-division multiplexed signal using adaptive modulation

We study the influence of nonlinear effects on symbol error statistics when a 16-QAM orthogonal frequency-division multiplexed signal is transmitted in a 1000 km length of fibre. A technique of adaptive modulation is proposed for generating signals that are resistant to nonlinear distortions. A considerable improvement of the transmission quality is shown to take effect in using an adaptive modulation scheme. (paper)

42 ENGINEERING↗

Extrapolation of the Rainflow-Counted Load Ranges for Fatigue Assessment of the Wind Turbine's Blades

Wind turbine design standards recommend the use of statistical modeling coupled with extrapolation of the short-term load data to long-term periods for fatigue reliability assessment. However, statistical error and computational expense can limit the accuracy of such approaches. In the case of wind turbine blades, the errors are more significant because of the high material fatigue exponent that makes the damage estimations more sensitive to variations. In addition, due to different excitation sources, the flapwise load range histogram is not unimodal, and thus its statistical modeling is complex. In the present work, we provide three methods for statistical modeling of the flapwise bending moment ranges including a novel approach based on frequency-based separation of the modes. The first two methods are simplified approaches for modeling the most crucial load ranges using unimodal distributions and the third method involves multimodal distribution fitting. The research is based on 3600 10-minute aeroelastic simulations of DTU 10MW case study wind turbine from which a benchmark damage equivalent load (DEL) is calculated. The DEL calculated by each of the three proposed methods is compared to this reference. The results show that the conventional approach based on using 6 seeds as well as using mixture models fitted on the limited data lead to under-conservative results with errors up to 23%. On the other hand, the simplified unimodal approaches provided in this work can provide conservative estimations of the fatigue damage with mean values 5% and 12% higher than the benchmark. However, the variability of the DEL estimates is higher when using unimodal extrapolation of the load ranges, and the data can be conservative by 17.5%. The proposed unimodal fits suggested for modeling and extrapolation of the blade's load ranges provide less errors relatively and most importantly conservative DEL estimations while maintaining computational efficiency.

blade fatigue↗

Improved Fast Randomized Iteration Approach to Full Configuration Interaction

In this work, we present three modifications to our recently introduced fast randomized iteration method for full configuration interaction (FCI-FRI) and investigate their effects on the method’s performance for Ne, H 2 O, and N 2 . The initiator approximation, originally developed for full configuration interaction quantum Monte Carlo, significantly reduces statistical error in FCI-FRI when few samples are used in compression operations, enabling its application to larger chemical systems. The semistochastic extension, which involves exactly preserving a fixed subset of elements in each compression, improves statistical efficiency in some cases but reduces it in others. We also developed a new approach to sampling excitations that yields consistent improvements in statistical efficiency and reductions in computational cost. We discuss possible strategies based on our findings for improving the performance of stochastic quantum chemistry methods more generally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Analytical Bit-Error Model of NAND Flash Memories for Dosimetry Application

In this work, we provide an analytical model for the total ionizing dose (TID) effects on the bit error statistics of commercial flash memory chips. We have validated the model with experimental data collected by irradiating several commercial NAND flash memory chips from different technology nodes. We find that our analytical model can project bit errors at higher TID values (~ 20 krad(Si)) from measured data at lower TID values (<1 krad(Si)). Based on our model and the measured data, we have formulated basic design rules for using a commercial flash memory chip as a dosimeter. We discuss the impact of NAND chip-to-chip variability, noise margin and the intrinsic errors on the dosimeter design using detailed experimentation.

3-D NAND↗

Monte Carlo Control Loops for Cosmic Shear Cosmology with DES Year 1

Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful probe of cosmology and of the dark universe. This cosmic shear technique relies on the accurate measurement of the shapes and redshifts of background galaxies and requires precise control of systematic errors. The Monte Carlo Control Loops (MCCL) is a forward modelling method designed to tackle this problem. It relies on the Ultra Fast Image Generator (UFig) to produce simulated images tuned to match the target data statistically, followed by calibrations and tolerance loops. We present the first end-to-end application of this method, on the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 wide field imaging data. We simultaneously measure the shear power spectrum $C_{\ell}$ and the redshift distribution $n(z)$ of the background galaxy sample. The method includes maps of the systematic sources, Point Spread Function (PSF), an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) inference of the simulation model parameters, a shear calibration scheme, and the fast estimation of the covariance matrix. We find a close statistical agreement between the simulations and the DES Y1 data using an array of diagnostics. In a non-tomographic setting, we derive a set of $C_\ell$ and $n(z)$ curves that encode the cosmic shear measurement, as well as the systematic uncertainty. Following a blinding scheme, we measure the combination of $\Omega_m$, $\sigma_8$, and intrinsic alignment amplitude $A_{\rm{IA}}$, defined as $S_8D_{\rm{IA}} = \sigma_8(\Omega_m/0.3)^{0.5}D_{\rm{IA}}$, where $D_{\rm{IA}}=1-0.11(A_{\rm{IA}}-1)$. We find $S_8D_{\rm{IA}}=0.895^{+0.054}_{-0.039}$, where systematics are at the level of roughly 60\% of the statistical errors. We discuss these results in the context of earlier cosmic shear analyses of the DES Y1 data. Our findings indicate that this method and its fast runtime offer good prospects for cosmic shear measurements with future wide-field surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Gaussian process based optimization of molecular geometries using statistically sampled energy surfaces from quantum Monte Carlo

Optimization of atomic coordinates and lattice parameters remains a significant challenge to the wide use of stochastic electronic structure methods such as quantum Monte Carlo (QMC). Measurements of the forces and stress tensor by these methods contain statistical errors, challenging conventional gradient-based numerical optimization methods that assume deterministic results. Additionally, forces are not yet available for some methods, wavefunctions, and basis sets and when available may be expensive to compute to sufficiently high statistical accuracy near energy minima, where the energy surfaces are flat. Here, we explore the use of Gaussian process based techniques to sample the energy surfaces and reduce sensitivity to the statistical nature of the problem. We utilize Latin hypercube sampling, with the number of sampled energy points scaling quadratically with the number of optimized parameters. Furthermore, we show these techniques may be successfully applied to systems consisting of tens of parameters, demonstrating QMC optimization of a benzene molecule starting from a randomly perturbed, broken symmetry geometry.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗