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At least 91 records · Page 5

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗

Multivariate statistical analysis software technologies for astrophysical research involving large data bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complete database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful, and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications, and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. George↗

Statistical Analysis of Fading Power Vectors for Real-Time Atmospheric Channel Emulation

The design and testing of a free-space optical communication system requires assessment of the impact of random fluctuations in received power from a laser beam transmitted over an atmospheric channel. A number of methods for generating fading power vectors for in-lab emulation of an atmospheric channel have previously been reported. These techniques include spectral shaping and filtering of a signal from a normally distributed pseudo-random number generator, full wave optics simulations with random phase screens, and pre-recorded measurements from experimental free-space links. In this work, a statistical analysis of atmospheric fading is presented with the goal of producing a practical engineering model for the fading channel suitable for generating synthetic fade vectors in real-time for long-duration receiver testing with channel interleaving. Specifically, a parametric model is developed for turbulence-induced fade on space-to-ground links with large-aperture receivers, including aperture-averaging and the effects of aperture size on the instantaneous coupling efficiency for mode- limited receivers. In particular, we analyze the probability density function and temporal power spectrum for fluctuations of the coupling efficiency for few-mode fibers in a range of turbulence conditions.

free-space optical communication↗

Statistical Analysis of Fading Power Vectors for Real-Time Atmospheric Channel Emulation

The design and testing of a free-space optical communication system requires assessment of the impact of random fluctuations in received power from a laser beam transmitted over an atmospheric channel. A number of methods for generating fading power vectors for in-lab emulation of an atmospheric channel have previously been reported. These techniques include spectral shaping and filtering of a signal from a normally distributed pseudo-random number generator, full wave optics simulations with random phase screens, and pre-recorded measurements from experimental free-space links. In this work, a statistical analysis of atmospheric fading is presented with the goal of producing a practical engineering model for the fading channel suitable for generating synthetic fade vectors in real-time for long-duration receiver testing with channel interleaving. Specifically, a parametric model is developed for turbulence-induced fade on space-to-ground links with large-aperture receivers, including aperture-averaging and the effects of aperture size on the instantaneous coupling efficiency for mode-limited receivers. In particular, we analyze the probability density function and temporal power spectrum for fluctuations of the coupling efficiency for few-mode fibers in a range of turbulence conditions.

free-space optical communication↗

Validation Testing and Statistical Analysis of the Rotary Tumbler Fabric Abrasion Method

The Artemis space suit glove environmental protection garment (EPG) will be the first line of protection used to shield the crewmember’s hands from the environments encountered during extravehicular activity (EVA). As the Artemis missions will include more extreme environments than those experienced on the International Space Station, development, verification, and validation of gloves requires the development of new test methods. A previous paper focused on the development of a test procedure to characterize lunar EVA glove fabrics using ASTM standardized test methods and the design and validation of a new standardized test procedure for comparing abrasion resistance between fabrics using a dust and rock filled rotary tumbler. Preliminary results of testing were presented in that paper. This paper reports on the validation testing and statistical analysis of the newly developed tumbler abrasion test method.

Robert J Jones↗

Multivariate Statistical Analysis Software Technologies for Astrophysical Research Involving Large Data Bases

We developed a package to process and analyze the data from the digital version of the Second Palomar Sky Survey. This system, called SKICAT, incorporates the latest in machine learning and expert systems software technology, in order to classify the detected objects objectively and uniformly, and facilitate handling of the enormous data sets from digital sky surveys and other sources. The system provides a powerful, integrated environment for the manipulation and scientific investigation of catalogs from virtually any source. It serves three principal functions: image catalog construction, catalog management, and catalog analysis. Through use of the GID3* Decision Tree artificial induction software, SKICAT automates the process of classifying objects within CCD and digitized plate images. To exploit these catalogs, the system also provides tools to merge them into a large, complex database which may be easily queried and modified when new data or better methods of calibrating or classifying become available. The most innovative feature of SKICAT is the facility it provides to experiment with and apply the latest in machine learning technology to the tasks of catalog construction and analysis. SKICAT provides a unique environment for implementing these tools for any number of future scientific purposes. Initial scientific verification and performance tests have been made using galaxy counts and measurements of galaxy clustering from small subsets of the survey data, and a search for very high redshift quasars. All of the tests were successful and produced new and interesting scientific results. Attachments to this report give detailed accounts of the technical aspects of the SKICAT system, and of some of the scientific results achieved to date. We also developed a user-friendly package for multivariate statistical analysis of small and moderate-size data sets, called STATPROG. The package was tested extensively on a number of real scientific applications and has produced real, published results.

Djorgovski, S. G.↗

Statistical Analysis of an Infrared Thermography Inspection of Reinforced Carbon-Carbon

Each piece of flight hardware being used on the shuttle must be analyzed and pass NASA requirements before the shuttle is ready for launch. One tool used to detect cracks that lie within flight hardware is Infrared Flash Thermography. This is a non-destructive testing technique which uses an intense flash of light to heat up the surface of a material after which an Infrared camera is used to record the cooling of the material. Since cracks within the material obstruct the natural heat flow through the material, they are visible when viewing the data from the Infrared camera. We used Ecotherm, a software program, to collect data pertaining to the delaminations and analyzed the data using Ecotherm and University of Dayton Log Logistic Probability of Detection (POD) Software. The goal was to reproduce the statistical analysis produced by the University of Dayton software, by using scatter plots, log transforms, and residuals to test the assumption of normality for the residuals.

Comeaux, Kayla↗

Summary and Statistical Analysis of the First AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop

A summary is provided for the First AIAA Sonic Boom Workshop held 11 January 2014 in conjunction with AIAA SciTech 2014. Near-field pressure signatures extracted from computational fluid dynamics solutions are gathered from nineteen participants representing three countries for the two required cases, an axisymmetric body and simple delta wing body. Structured multiblock, unstructured mixed-element, unstructured tetrahedral, overset, and Cartesian cut-cell methods are used by the participants. Participants provided signatures computed on participant generated and solution adapted grids. Signatures are also provided for a series of uniformly refined workshop provided grids. These submissions are propagated to the ground and loudness measures are computed. This allows the grid convergence of a loudness measure and a validation metric (dfference norm between computed and wind tunnel measured near-field signatures) to be studied for the first time. Statistical analysis is also presented for these measures. An optional configuration includes fuselage, wing, tail, flow-through nacelles, and blade sting. This full configuration exhibits more variation in eleven submissions than the sixty submissions provided for each required case. Recommendations are provided for potential improvements to the analysis methods and a possible subsequent workshop.

Park, Michael A.↗

Statistical Analysis of Model Data for Operational Space Launch Weather Support at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

The 12-km resolution North American Mesoscale (NAM) model (MesoNAM) is used by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) Launch Weather Officers at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) to support space launch weather operations. The 45 WS tasked the Applied Meteorology Unit to conduct an objective statistics-based analysis of MesoNAM output compared to wind tower mesonet observations and then develop a an operational tool to display the results. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction began running the current version of the MesoNAM in mid-August 2006. The period of record for the dataset was 1 September 2006 - 31 January 2010. The AMU evaluated MesoNAM hourly forecasts from 0 to 84 hours based on model initialization times of 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The MesoNAM forecast winds, temperature and dew point were compared to the observed values of these parameters from the sensors in the KSC/CCAFS wind tower network. The data sets were stratified by model initialization time, month and onshore/offshore flow for each wind tower. Statistics computed included bias (mean difference), standard deviation of the bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and a hypothesis test for bias = O. Twelve wind towers located in close proximity to key launch complexes were used for the statistical analysis with the sensors on the towers positioned at varying heights to include 6 ft, 30 ft, 54 ft, 60 ft, 90 ft, 162 ft, 204 ft and 230 ft depending on the launch vehicle and associated weather launch commit criteria being evaluated. These twelve wind towers support activities for the Space Shuttle (launch and landing), Delta IV, Atlas V and Falcon 9 launch vehicles. For all twelve towers, the results indicate a diurnal signal in the bias of temperature (T) and weaker but discernable diurnal signal in the bias of dewpoint temperature (T(sub d)) in the MesoNAM forecasts. Also, the standard deviation of the bias and RMSE of T, T(sub d), wind speed and wind direction indicated the model error increased with the forecast period all four parameters. The hypothesis testing uses statistics to determine the probability that a given hypothesis is true. The goal of using the hypothesis test was to determine if the model bias of any of the parameters assessed throughout the model forecast period was statistically zero. For th is dataset, if this test produced a value >= -1 .96 or <= 1.96 for a data point, then the bias at that point was effectively zero and the model forecast for that point was considered to have no error. A graphical user interface (GUI) was developed so the 45 WS would have an operational tool at their disposal that would be easy to navigate among the multiple stratifications of information to include tower locations, month, model initialization times, sensor heights and onshore/offshore flow. The AMU developed the GUI using HyperText Markup Language (HTML) so the tool could be used in most popular web browsers with computers running different operating systems such as Microsoft Windows and Linux.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Statistical Analysis of the AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop CFD Solutions

The first AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW), held in June 2001, evaluated the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes CFD codes. The code-to-code scatter was more than an order of magnitude larger than desired for design and experimental validation of cruise conditions for a subsonic transport configuration. The second AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop, held in June 2003, emphasized the determination of installed pylon-nacelle drag increments and grid refinement studies. The code-to-code scatter was significantly reduced compared to the first DPW, but still larger than desired. However, grid refinement studies showed no significant improvement in code-to-code scatter with increasing grid refinement. The third AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop, held in June 2006, focused on the determination of installed side-of-body fairing drag increments and grid refinement studies for clean attached flow on wing alone configurations and for separated flow on the DLR-F6 subsonic transport model. This report compares the transonic cruise prediction results of the second and third workshops using statistical analysis.

Joseph H Morrison↗

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗

Statistical Analysis of CMC Constituent and Processing Data

Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) are the next "big thing" in high-temperature structural materials. In the case of jet engines, it is widely believed that the metallic superalloys currently being utilized for hot structures (combustors, shrouds, turbine vanes and blades) are nearing their potential limits of improvement. In order to allow for increased turbine temperatures to increase engine efficiency, material scientists have begun looking toward advanced CMCs and SiC/SiC composites in particular. Ceramic composites provide greater strength-to-weight ratios at higher temperatures than metallic alloys, but at the same time require greater challenges in micro-structural optimization that in turn increases the cost of the material as well as increases the risk of variability in the material s thermo-structural behavior. to model various potential CMC engine materials and examines the current variability in these properties due to variability in component processing conditions and constituent materials; then, to see how processing and constituent variations effect key strength, stiffness, and thermal properties of the finished components. Basically, this means trying to model variations in the component s behavior by knowing what went into creating it. inter-phase and manufactured by chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) and melt infiltration (MI) were considered. Examinations of: (1) the percent constituents by volume, (2) the inter-phase thickness, (3) variations in the total porosity, and (4) variations in the chemical composition of the Sic fiber are carried out and modeled using various codes used here at NASA-Glenn (PCGina, NASALife, CEMCAN, etc...). The effects of these variations and the ranking of their respective influences on the various thermo-mechanical material properties are studied and compared to available test data. The properties of the materials as well as minor changes to geometry are then made to the computer model and the detrimental effects observed using statistical analysis software. The ultimate purpose of this study is to determine what variations in material processing can lead to the most critical changes in the materials property. The work I have taken part in this summer explores, in general, the key properties needed In this study SiC/SiC composites of varying architectures, utilizing a boron-nitride (BN)

Fornuff, Jonathan↗

Statistical analysis of SSME system data

A statistical methodology to enhance the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) performance prediction accuracy is proposed. This methodology was to be used in conjunction with existing SSME performance prediction computer codes to improve parameter prediction accuracy and to quantify that accuracy. However, after a review of related literature, researchers concluded that the proposed problem required a coverage of areas such as linear and nonlinear system theory, measurement theory, statistics, and stochastic estimation. Since state space theory is the foundation for a more complete study of each of the before mentioned areas, these researchers chose to refocus emphasis to cover the more specialized topic of state vector estimation procedures. State vector estimation was also selected because of current and future concerns by NASA for SSME performance evaluation; i.e., there is a current interest in an improved evaluation procedure for actual SSME post flight performance as well as for post static test performance of a single SSME. A current investigation of analytical methods may be used to improve test stand failure detection. This paper considers the issue of post flight/test state variable reconstruction through the application of observations made on the output of the Space Shuttle propulsion system. Rogers used the Kalman filtering procedure to reconstruct the state variables of the Space Shuttle propulsion system. An objective of this paper is to give the general setup of the Kalman filter and its connection to linear regression. A second objective is to examine the reconstruction methodology for application to the reconstruction of the state vector of a single Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) by using static test firing data.

Temple, Enoch C.↗

Statistical analysis of low level atmospheric turbulence

The statistical properties of low-level wind-turbulence data were obtained with the model 1080 total vector anemometer and the model 1296 dual split-film anemometer, both manufactured by Thermo Systems Incorporated. The data obtained from the above fast-response probes were compared with the results obtained from a pair of Gill propeller anemometers. The digitized time series representing the three velocity components and the temperature were each divided into a number of blocks, the length of which depended on the lowest frequency of interest and also on the storage capacity of the available computer. A moving-average and differencing high-pass filter was used to remove the trend and the low frequency components in the time series. The calculated results for each of the anemometers used are represented in graphical or tabulated form.

Tieleman, H. W.↗

Asymptotic modal analysis and statistical energy analysis

Asymptotic Modal Analysis (AMA) is a method which is used to model linear dynamical systems with many participating modes. The AMA method was originally developed to show the relationship between statistical energy analysis (SEA) and classical modal analysis (CMA). In the limit of a large number of modes of a vibrating system, the classical modal analysis result can be shown to be equivalent to the statistical energy analysis result. As the CMA result evolves into the SEA result, a number of systematic assumptions are made. Most of these assumptions are based upon the supposition that the number of modes approaches infinity. It is for this reason that the term 'asymptotic' is used. AMA is the asymptotic result of taking the limit of CMA as the number of modes approaches infinity. AMA refers to any of the intermediate results between CMA and SEA, as well as the SEA result which is derived from CMA. The main advantage of the AMA method is that individual modal characteristics are not required in the model or computations. By contrast, CMA requires that each modal parameter be evaluated at each frequency. In the latter, contributions from each mode are computed and the final answer is obtained by summing over all the modes in the particular band of interest. AMA evaluates modal parameters only at their center frequency and does not sum the individual contributions from each mode in order to obtain a final result. The method is similar to SEA in this respect. However, SEA is only capable of obtaining spatial averages or means, as it is a statistical method. Since AMA is systematically derived from CMA, it can obtain local spatial information as well.

Dowell, Earl H.↗