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NASA NTRS2012

Climate Models

Climate models is a very broad topic, so a single volume can only offer a small sampling of relevant research activities. This volume of 14 chapters includes descriptions of a variety of modeling studies for a variety of geographic regions by an international roster of authors. The climate research community generally uses the rubric climate models to refer to organized sets of computer instructions that produce simulations of climate evolution. The code is based on physical relationships that describe the shared variability of meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, precipitation rate, circulation, radiation fluxes, etc. Three-dimensional climate models are integrated over time in order to compute the temporal and spatial variations of these parameters. Model domains can be global or regional and the horizontal and vertical resolutions of the computational grid vary from model to model. Considering the entire climate system requires accounting for interactions between solar insolation, atmospheric, oceanic and continental processes, the latter including land hydrology and vegetation. Model simulations may concentrate on one or more of these components, but the most sophisticated models will estimate the mutual interactions of all of these environments. Advances in computer technology have prompted investments in more complex model configurations that consider more phenomena interactions than were possible with yesterday s computers. However, not every attempt to add to the computational layers is rewarded by better model performance. Extensive research is required to test and document any advantages gained by greater sophistication in model formulation. One purpose for publishing climate model research results is to present purported advances for evaluation by the scientific community.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite-Based Evaluation of AeroCom Model Bias in Biomass Burning Regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by −93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

biomass burning aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2012

Data Assimilation of Photosynthetic Light-use Efficiency using Multi-angular Satellite Data: II Model Implementation and Validation

Spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of photosynthesis will be of great importance for increasing our understanding of and ultimately closing the terrestrial carbon cycle. Current capabilities to model photosynthesis, however, are limited by accurate enough representations of the complexity of the underlying biochemical processes and the numerous environmental constraints imposed upon plant primary production. A potentially powerful alternative to model photosynthesis through these indirect observations is the use of multi-angular satellite data to infer light-use efficiency (ε) directly from spectral reflectance properties in connection with canopy shadow fractions. Hall et al. (this issue) introduced a new approach for predicting gross ecosystem production that would allow the use of such observations in a data assimilation mode to obtain spatially explicit variations in ε from infrequent polar-orbiting satellite observations, while meteorological data are used to account for the more dynamic responses of ε to variations in environmental conditions caused by changes in weather and illumination. In this second part of the study we implement and validate the approach of Hall et al. (this issue) across an ecologically diverse array of eight flux-tower sites in North America using data acquired from the Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (CHRIS) and eddy-flux observations. Our results show significantly enhanced estimates of ε and therefore cumulative gross ecosystem production (GEP) over the course of one year at all examined sites. We also demonstrate that ε is greatly heterogeneous even across small study areas. Data assimilation and direct inference of GEP from space using a new, proposed sensor could therefore be a significant step towards closing the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Hilker, Thomas↗
NASA NTRS1981

An algorithm to generate input data from meteorological and space shuttle observations to validate a CH4-CO model

Objective procedures to analyze data from meteorological and space shuttle observations to validate a three dimensional model were investigated. The transport and chemistry of carbon monoxide and methane in the troposphere were studied. Four aspects were examined: (1) detailed evaluation of the variational calculus procedure, with the equation of continuity as a strong constraint, for adjustment of global tropospheric wind fields; (2) reduction of the National Meteorological Center (NMC) data tapes for data input to the OSTA-1/MAPS Experiment; (3) interpolation of the NMC Data for input to the CH4-CO model; and (4) temporal and spatial interpolation procedures of the CO measurements from the OSTA-1/MAPS Experiment to generate usable contours of the data.

Peters, L. K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Simultaneous stochastic inversion for geomagnetic main field and secular variation. I - A large-scale inverse problem

The method of stochastic inversion is extended to the simultaneous inversion of both main field and secular variation. In the present method, the time dependency is represented by an expansion in Legendre polynomials, resulting in a simple diagonal form for the a priori covariance matrix. The efficient preconditioned Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno algorithm is used to solve the large system of equations resulting from expansion of the field spatially to spherical harmonic degree 14 and temporally to degree 8. Application of the method to observatory data spanning the 1900-1980 period results in a data fit of better than 30 nT, while providing temporally and spatially smoothly varying models of the magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary.

Bloxham, Jeremy↗
NASA NTRS1992

Direct numerical simulation of laminar breakdown in high-speed, axisymmetric boundary layers

Temporal direct numerical simulation of laminar breakdown via subharmonic secondary instability in high-speed axisymmetric boundary layers has been accomplished using a highly accurate, fully explicit algorithm which combines spectral collocation and high-order compact-difference techniques. Numerical test cases confirm that subharmonic secondary instability is confirmed to be a viable path to transition in high-speed boundary-layer flow. Secondary instability is shown to account for peaks in the Reynolds stresses at or near the critical layer which are not possible from the second-mode primary instability alone. Reynolds stresses spatially reconstructed from the temporal model via the Gaster transformation show a 'spreading angle' of about 12 deg, in qualitative agreement with experimental findings. The rate of broadening of the Reynolds stress peak is a strongly nonlinear phenomenon which cannot be reproduced by secondary instability theory.

Pruett, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Spatial simulation of secondary instability in plane channel flow - Comparison of K- and H-type disturbances

This study involves a numerical simulation of spatially evolving secondary instability in plane channel flow. The computational algorithm integrates the time-dependent, 3D, incompressible Navier-Stokes equations by a mixed finite-difference/spectral technique. In particular, we are interested in the differences between instabilities instigated by Klebanoff (K-) type and Herbert (H-) type inflow conditions, and in comparing the present spatial results with previous temporal models. It is found that for the present inflow conditions, H-type instability is biased towards one of the channel walls, while K-type instability evolves on both walls. For low initial perturbation amplitudes, H-type instability exhibits higher growth rates than K-type instability, while higher initial amplitudes lead to comparable growth rates of both H- and K-type instability. In H-type instability, spectral analysis reveals the presence of the subharmonic 2D mode which promotes the growth of the 3D spanwise and fundamental modes through nonlinear interactions. An intermodal energy transfer study demonstrates that there is a net energy transfer from the 3D modes to the 2D mode. This analysis also indicates that the mean mode transfers net energy to the 2D subharmonic mode and to the 3D modes.

Saiki, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Environmental Remote Sensing: New Development and Applications

The term 'scale', both in space and time, is central to remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS). The emergency and widespread use of GIS technologies, including remote sensing, has generated interest in addressing scale as generic Issue, and in the development and implementation of techniques for dealing explicitly with the vicissitudes of scale as a multidisciplinary issue. Traditionally, the paper map has been used as the primary conveyor of 'scale', represented by the ratio between the distance as measured between pairs of points on the map and distance as measured between the same pairs of points on the Earth's surface. GIS and remote sensing, however, have expanded upon the paper map and now provide opportunities for representing multiscale representations; that is databases or models that contain spatial and temporal data that have been obtained and stored at different scales.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

A New "Cloud Mode" for the AERONET

A key to predicting climate change is to observe an understand the global distribution of clouds and their physical properties such as optical thickness and droplet size. Since clouds change rapidly over short time and space intervals, they are difficult to simulate in computer models. But it is essential that global climate models predict realistic spatial and temporal distribution of cloud optical depth. The best way to verify these distributions is to infer optical depth from global coverage satellite data. However, satellite methods have many sources of uncertainty; thus, independent and reliable ground-based estimates are essential for validation. For aerosol, there is the AERONET - a ground based monitoring network that consists of identical multi-channel radiometers for assessing aerosol optical properties and validating their satellite retrievals. In addition to AEROSOL, we want the network monitoring CLOUD optical properties. It will use AERONET "time" (inappropriate for aerosol studies) to make basic new measurements related to cloud physics. In the presentation we will report on a new technique that retrieves cloud optical thickness for even broken clouds above green vegetation from surface measurements of zenith radiance in the visible (VIS) and near-IR (NIR) spectral regions. The idea of the method is simple: since green vegetation reflects 40-50% of incoming radiation in the NIR and only 5-10% in the VIS region, ground measurements under thin clouds have little spectral contrast between VIS and NIR, while thick clouds reflect much more of the surface-reflected radiation in the NIR than in VIS. Based on this idea, we use a combination of measurements (spectral indices) in VIS and NIR to estimate cloud optical thickness. By analogy with NDVI, the simplest index that can be defined is the Normalized Difference Cloud Index (NDCI) which is a ratio between the difference and the sum of two radiances measured for two narrow spectral bands in VIS and NIR.

Marshak, Alexander↗
NASA NTRS2004

Magnetohydrodynamic Convection in the Outer Core and its Geodynamic Consequences

The Earth's fluid outer core is in vigorous convection through much of the Earth's history. In addition to generating and maintaining Earth s time-varying magnetic field (geodynamo), the core convection also generates mass redistribution in the core and a dynamical pressure field on the core-mantle boundary (CMB). All these shall result in various core-mantle interactions, and contribute to surface geodynamic observables. For example, electromagnetic core-mantle coupling arises from finite electrically conducting lower mantle; gravitational interaction occurs between the cores and the heterogeneous mantle; mechanical coupling may also occur when the CMB topography is aspherical. Besides changing the mantle rotation via the coupling torques, the mass-redistribution in the core shall produce a spatial-temporal gravity anomaly. Numerical modeling of the core dynamical processes contributes in several geophysical disciplines. It helps explain the physical causes of surface geodynamic observables via space geodetic techniques and other means, e.g. Earth's rotation variation on decadal time scales, and secular time-variable gravity. Conversely, identification of the sources of the observables can provide additional insights on the dynamics of the fluid core, leading to better constraints on the physics in the numerical modeling. In the past few years, our core dynamics modeling efforts, with respect to our MoSST model, have made significant progress in understanding individual geophysical consequences. However, integrated studies are desirable, not only because of more mature numerical core dynamics models, but also because of inter-correlation among the geophysical phenomena, e.g. mass redistribution in the outer core produces not only time-variable gravity, but also gravitational core-mantle coupling and thus the Earth's rotation variation. They are expected to further facilitate multidisciplinary studies of core dynamics and interactions of the core with other components of the Earth.

Kuang, Weijia↗
NASA NTRS2003

Adaptation of Mesoscale Weather Models to Local Forecasting

Methodologies have been developed for (1) configuring mesoscale numerical weather-prediction models for execution on high-performance computer workstations to make short-range weather forecasts for the vicinity of the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and (2) evaluating the performances of the models as configured. These methodologies have been implemented as part of a continuing effort to improve weather forecasting in support of operations of the U.S. space program. The models, methodologies, and results of the evaluations also have potential value for commercial users who could benefit from tailoring their operations and/or marketing strategies based on accurate predictions of local weather. More specifically, the purpose of developing the methodologies for configuring the models to run on computers at KSC and CCAFS is to provide accurate forecasts of winds, temperature, and such specific thunderstorm-related phenomena as lightning and precipitation. The purpose of developing the evaluation methodologies is to maximize the utility of the models by providing users with assessments of the capabilities and limitations of the models. The models used in this effort thus far include the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS), the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Eta Model ( Eta for short). The configuration of the MASS and RAMS is designed to run the models at very high spatial resolution and incorporate local data to resolve fine-scale weather features. Model preprocessors were modified to incorporate surface, ship, buoy, and rawinsonde data as well as data from local wind towers, wind profilers, and conventional or Doppler radars. The overall evaluation of the MASS, Eta, and RAMS was designed to assess the utility of these mesoscale models for satisfying the weather-forecasting needs of the U.S. space program. The evaluation methodology includes objective and subjective verification methodologies. Objective (e.g., statistical) verification of point forecasts is a stringent measure of model performance, but when used alone, it is not usually sufficient for quantifying the value of the overall contribution of the model to the weather-forecasting process. This is especially true for mesoscale models with enhanced spatial and temporal resolution that may be capable of predicting meteorologically consistent, though not necessarily accurate, fine-scale weather phenomena. Therefore, subjective (phenomenological) evaluation, focusing on selected case studies and specific weather features, such as sea breezes and precipitation, has been performed to help quantify the added value that cannot be inferred solely from objective evaluation.

Manobianco, John T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

A New Retrieval Algorithm for OMI NO2: Tropospheric Results and Comparisons with Measurements and Models

Nitrogen oxides (NOx =NO+NO2) are important atmospheric trace constituents that impact tropospheric air pollution chemistry and air quality. We have developed a new NASA algorithm for the retrieval of stratospheric and tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities using measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's Aura satellite. The new products rely on an improved approach to stratospheric NO2 column estimation and stratosphere-troposphere separation and a new monthly NO2 climatology based on the NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemistry-transport model. The retrieval does not rely on daily model profiles, minimizing the influence of a priori information. We evaluate the retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns using surface in situ (e.g., AQS/EPA), ground-based (e.g., DOAS), and airborne measurements (e.g., DISCOVER-AQ). The new, improved OMI tropospheric NO2 product is available at high spatial resolution for the years 200S-present. We believe that this product is valuable for the evaluation of chemistry-transport models, examining the spatial and temporal patterns of NOx emissions, constraining top-down NOx inventories, and for the estimation of NOx lifetimes.

Swartz, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effect of the nonlinearity of the carbonate system on partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the oceans

Partial pressure of CO2 is a nonlinear function of several seawater properties. Due to the nonlinearity in this relationship, the partial pressure of a uniform ocean would be different from that of a nonuniform ocean with the same bulk seawater properties. Assuming uniformity of seawater properties at some temporal and spatial scales in carbon models leads to systematic errors in partial pressure of CO2. In this paper we evaluate the magnitude of these errors. We partition the Geochemical Ocean Sections Study and Transient Tracers in the Oceans data according to the horizontal structure of several box models from the literature. Our results suggest that assumption of uniformity at large scales leads to understanding of underestimation of global surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 by at least 3 - 12 microatm. Nonlinear effects also introduce systematic errors in the buffer factor estimated from bulk seawater properties. We find the standard deviation of partial pressure of CO2 to be an indicator of the magnitude of the nonlinear effects. We discuss the implications of these errors for some conclusions drawn from carbon models. Biogeochemical processes, such as mixing, gas exchange, or biological activity, influence the distribution of the seawater properties. A shift in spatial or temporal patterns of these processes can modify the nonuniformity of the seawater properties and thus alter the partial pressure of the surface waters, even if the mean intensities of the processes remain constant.

Trela, Piotr↗
NASA NTRS2013

Hydroclimatic Controls on the Means and Variability of Vegetation Phenology and Carbon Uptake

Long-term, global offline (land-only) simulations with a dynamic vegetation phenology model are used to examine the control of hydroclimate over vegetation-related quantities. First, with a control simulation, the model is shown to capture successfully (though with some bias) key observed relationships between hydroclimate and the spatial and temporal variations of phenological expression. In subsequent simulations, the model shows that: (i) the global spatial variation of seasonal phenological maxima is controlled mostly by hydroclimate, irrespective of distributions in vegetation type, (ii) the occurrence of high interannual moisture-related phenological variability in grassland areas is determined by hydroclimate rather than by the specific properties of grassland, and (iii) hydroclimatic means and variability have a corresponding impact on the spatial and temporal distributions of gross primary productivity (GPP).

GPP↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling Modern Methane Emissions from Natural Wetlands: Model Description and Results - 1

Methane is an important greenhouse gas which contributes about 22 percent to the present greenhouse effect. Natural wetlands currently constitute the biggest methane source and were the major source in preindustrial times. Wetland emissions depend highly on the climate, i.e., on soil temperature and water table. To investigate the response of methane emissions from natural wetlands to climate variations, a process-based model that derives methane emissions from natural wetlands as a function of soil temperature, water table, and net primary productivity is used. For its application on the global scale, global data sets for all model parameters are generated. In addition, a simple hydrologic model is developed in order to simulate the position of the water table in wetlands. The hydrologic model is tested against data from different wetland sites, and the sensitivity of the hydrologic model to changes in precipitation is examined. The global methane­ hydrology model constitutes a tool to study temporal and spatial variations in methane emissions from natural wetlands. The model is applied using high-frequency atmospheric forcing fields from European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) re-analyses of the period from 1982 to 1993. We calculate global annual methane emissions from wetlands to be 260 teragrams per year. Twenty-five percent of these methane emissions originate from wetlands north of 30 degrees North Latitude. Only 60 percent of the produced methane is emitted, while the rest is re-oxidized. A comparison of zonal integrals of simulated global wetland emissions and results obtained by an inverse modeling approach shows good agreement. In a test with data from two wetlands the seasonality of simulated and observed methane emissions agrees well.

Biogeochemical processes↗
NASA NTRS2014

Pressure Sensitive Paint Applied to Flexible Models Project

One gap in current pressure-measurement technology is a high-spatial-resolution method for accurately measuring pressures on spatially and temporally varying wind-tunnel models such as Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators (IADs), parachutes, and sails. Conventional pressure taps only provide sparse measurements at discrete points and are difficult to integrate with the model structure without altering structural properties. Pressure Sensitive Paint (PSP) provides pressure measurements with high spatial resolution, but its use has been limited to rigid or semi-rigid models. Extending the use of PSP from rigid surfaces to flexible surfaces would allow direct, high-spatial-resolution measurements of the unsteady surface pressure distribution. Once developed, this new capability will be combined with existing stereo photogrammetry methods to simultaneously measure the shape of a dynamically deforming model in a wind tunnel. Presented here are the results and methodology for using PSP on flexible surfaces.

model deformation↗
NASA NTRS1990

Theoretical models of gas dynamics and star formation in interacting ring galaxies

A series of one and two dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of a ring wave in interstellar gas disks was completed. These calculations included nonlinear source terms to model the effects of interstellar interactions and star formation, as well as the spatial-temporal gas flow. Toomre's kinematical model was merged with the Arnold, Shandarin, and Zeldovich 'pancake' theory of caustics in galaxy formation. The resulting theory can describe almost all the structure in restricted three-body simulations of single-pass collisions, even with multi-component potentials. Off-center galactic collisions were studied to understand the dynamics involved. Multi-color optical and near-infrared observations of faint tidal features were performed in about two dozen interacting galaxies selected from the Arp atlas. This sample provided evidence for ongoing star formation in tidal structures, and even enhancements of star formation in some cases. The task of assembling the data for gas-rich, late-type galaxies, was undertaken to see if a more coherent picture of the gas distribution would emerge from the more complete data. Analytic solutions of the equations with subsonic flows to balance gas consumption for expulsion form a galactic fountain were also derived.

Struck-Marcell, Curtis↗
NASA NTRS2010

An Optimization Model for Scheduling Problems with Two-Dimensional Spatial Resource Constraint

Traditional scheduling problems involve determining temporal assignments for a set of jobs in order to optimize some objective. Some scheduling problems also require the use of limited resources, which adds another dimension of complexity. In this paper we introduce a spatial resource-constrained scheduling problem that can arise in assembly, warehousing, cross-docking, inventory management, and other areas of logistics and supply chain management. This scheduling problem involves a twodimensional rectangular area as a limited resource. Each job, in addition to having temporal requirements, has a width and a height and utilizes a certain amount of space inside the area. We propose an optimization model for scheduling the jobs while respecting all temporal and spatial constraints.

Garcia, Christopher↗