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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling the effect of composition on nuclear waste immobilization glasses’ durability by nonparametric machine learning

Abstract Ensuring the long-term chemical durability of glasses is critical for nuclear waste immobilization operations. Durable glasses usually undergo qualification for disposal based on their response to standardized tests such as the product consistency test or the vapor hydration test (VHT). The VHT uses elevated temperature and water vapor to accelerate glass alteration and the formation of secondary phases. Understanding the relationship between glass composition and VHT response is of fundamental and practical interest. However, this relationship is complex, non-linear, and sometimes fairly variable, posing challenges in identifying the distinct effect of individual oxides on VHT response. Here, we leverage a dataset comprising 654 Hanford low-activity waste (LAW) glasses across a wide compositional envelope and employ various machine learning techniques to explore this relationship. We find that Gaussian process regression (GPR), a nonparametric regression method, yields the highest predictive accuracy. By utilizing the trained model, we discern the influence of each oxide on the glasses’ VHT response. Moreover, we discuss the trade-off between underfitting and overfitting for extrapolating the material performance in the context of sparse and heterogeneous datasets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Operator learning for predicting multiscale bubble growth dynamics

We report simulating and predicting multiscale problems that couple multiple physics and dynamics across many orders of spatiotemporal scales is a great challenge that has not been investigated systematically by deep neural networks (DNNs). Herein, we develop a framework based on operator regression, the so-called deep operator network (DeepONet), with the long-term objective to simplify multiscale modeling by avoiding the fragile and time-consuming “hand-shaking” interface algorithms for stitching together heterogeneous descriptions of multiscale phenomena. To this end, as a first step, we investigate if a DeepONet can learn the dynamics of different scale regimes, one at the deterministic macroscale and the other at the stochastic microscale regime with inherent thermal fluctuations. Specifically, we test the effectiveness and accuracy of the DeepONet in predicting multirate bubble growth dynamics, which is described by a Rayleigh–Plesset (R–P) equation at the macroscale and modeled as a stochastic nucleation and cavitation process at the microscale by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD). First, we generate data using the R–P equation for multirate bubble growth dynamics caused by randomly time-varying liquid pressures drawn from Gaussian random fields (GRFs). Our results show that properly trained DeepONets can accurately predict the macroscale bubble growth dynamics and can outperform long short-term memory networks. We also demonstrate that the DeepONet can extrapolate accurately outside the input distribution using only very few new measurements. Subsequently, we train the DeepONet with DPD data corresponding to stochastic bubble growth dynamics. Although the DPD data are noisy and we only collect sparse data points on the trajectories, the trained DeepONet model is able to predict accurately the mean bubble dynamics for time-varying GRF pressures. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that DeepONets can be employed to unify the macroscale and microscale models of the multirate bubble growth problem, hence providing new insight into the role of operator regression via DNNs in tackling realistic multiscale problems and in simplifying modeling with heterogeneous descriptions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning inversion of interatomic force constants from single-crystal inelastic neutron scattering

Atomic vibrations govern many macroscopic properties of materials, but experiments to comprehensively probe them remain challenging. Inelastic neutron scattering (INS) is a powerful technique to map phonon dispersions in crystals, especially when leveraging modern time-of-flight (ToF) spectrometers with large detectors. However, efficiently and robustly extracting interatomic force constants (FCs) parameterizing phonon dynamics from experimental spectra remains a bottleneck due to the complexity and high dimensionality of ToF INS datasets. Here, we present a machine learning approach for the direct inversion of FCs from single-crystal INS measurements. The framework leverages synthetic training data generated using universal machine-learned force fields and an efficient physics-based forward model. We benchmark two neural architectures–one emphasizing structured latent representation learning and the other direct, supervised spectral regression–across simulated datasets for two materials under idealized and noisy conditions. The latent-representation model is subsequently applied to experimental single-crystal INS data on germanium. The model is shown to reproduce FCs derived from both first-principles simulations and from iterative optimization, and furthermore achieves reliable inference even from sparse, single-orientation measurements representing short data acquisitions. Analysis of the learned latent space reveals semantically continuous and physically interpretable encodings that support strong cross-domain generalization. By bridging theoretical and experimental domains, we establish a path toward rapid inversion of experimental spectra and data-driven interpretation of temperature-dependent lattice dynamics.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient Data Compression for 3D Sparse TPC via Bicephalous Convolutional Autoencoder

Real-time data collection and analysis in large experimental facilities present a great challenge across multiple domains, including high energy physics, nuclear physics, and cosmology. To address this, machine learning (ML)-based methods for real-time data compression have drawn significant attention. However, unlike natural image data, such as CIFAR and ImageNet that are relatively small-sized and continuous, scientific data often come in as three-dimensional 3D data volumes at high rates with high sparsity (many zeros) and non-Gaussian value distribution. This makes direct application of popular ML compression methods, as well as conventional data compression methods, suboptimal. To address these obstacles, this work introduces a dual-head autoencoder to resolve sparsity and regression simultaneously, called Bicephalous Convolutional AutoEncoder (BCAE). This method shows advantages both in compression fidelity and ratio compared to traditional data compression methods, such as MGARD, SZ, and ZFP. To achieve similar fidelity, the best performer among the traditional methods can reach only half the compression ratio of BCAE. Moreover, a thorough ablation study of the BCAE method shows that a dedicated segmentation decoder improves the reconstruction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian inference approach to analyze apparent activation barriers and reaction orders from microreactor data

Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Satellite-Derived Upper-Ocean Stratification Data Set for the Tropical North Atlantic With Potential Applications for Hurricane Intensity Prediction

Upper-ocean stratification strongly impacts vertical mixing and the heat flux between the ocean and atmosphere, especially under extreme conditions of tropical cyclones (TCs). Knowledge of prestorm stratification is important for accurate TC intensity prediction. In situ observations of the tropical ocean have significantly increased in the past decade. However, they are still too sparse to resolve ocean stratification variability in near-real time and on small spatial scales. Here, in this study, based on long-term observations and an ocean reanalysis data set from 2004–2017, we investigate the possibility of retrieving upper-ocean stratification from sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), and sea surface height (SSH) using a simple regression method. It is found that more than 90% of the mean seasonal cycle and about 30% to 80% of temperature and salinity stratification anomalies can be reconstructed using surface data from either observations or an ocean reanalysis. Simple regression can be used with satellite observations to create a high-resolution, near-real-time-gridded ocean stratification data set that successfully reproduces both the large and mesoscale variability of ocean stratification. When used in a simple expression for TC-induced SST cooling, the satellite-derived stratification shows improvements over an ocean analysis in terms of variance explained of SST cooling, offering promise as a near-real-time indicator of the ocean's impact on TC intensification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning for physics-based models

This paper addresses the issue of overfitting while calibrating unknown parameters of over-parameterized physics-based models with noisy and incomplete observations. Here, a semi-analytical Bayesian framework of nonlinear sparse Bayesian learning (NSBL) is proposed to identify sparsity among model parameters during Bayesian inversion. NSBL offers significant advantages over machine learning algorithm of sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) for physics-based models, such as 1) the likelihood function or the posterior parameter distribution is not required to be Gaussian, and 2) prior parameter knowledge is incorporated into sparse learning (i.e. not all parameters are treated as questionable). NSBL employs the concept of automatic relevance determination (ARD) to facilitate sparsity among questionable parameters through parameterized prior distributions. The analytical tractability of NSBL is enabled by employing Gaussian ARD priors and by building a Gaussian mixture-model approximation of the posterior parameter distribution that excludes the contribution of ARD priors. Subsequently, type-II maximum likelihood is executed using Newton's method whereby the evidence and its gradient and Hessian information are computed in a semi-analytical fashion. We show numerically and analytically that SBL is a special case of NSBL for linear regression models. Subsequently, a linear regression example involving multimodality in both parameter posterior pdf and model evidence is considered to demonstrate the performance of NSBL in cases where SBL is inapplicable. Next, NSBL is applied to identify sparsity among the damping coefficients of a mass-spring-damper model of a shear building frame. These numerical studies demonstrate the robustness and efficiency of NSBL in alleviating overfitting during Bayesian inversion of nonlinear physics-based models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying spatial and vertical variations in soil C:N relationships in permafrost-affected landscapes

Permafrost regions are experiencing rapid changes that affect carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, with implications for vegetation dynamics and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Soil C:N ratio is a key indicator of organic matter quality, yet spatial estimates of N stocks and C:N ratios lag behind those for C. We used quantile regression forests to compare direct and indirect digital soil mapping approaches for predicting soil C:N ratios at 0–30, 30–60, and 60–100 cm depths across a latitudinal transect in Alaska. The indirect approach – deriving C:N from separately predicted C and N stocks – outperformed direct mapping for the surface layer (0–30 cm), while direct mapping was marginally better at greater depths. However, prediction accuracy decreased with depth for both methods. Temperature and topography were the most important predictors. Both approaches overestimated low and underestimated high C:N ratios, with direct mapping showing greater bias. Our results underscore the challenges of modeling C:N ratios in heterogeneous, data-sparse permafrost soils, but also suggest that indirect mapping holds promise if supported by more extensive datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An ℓ 0 ℓ 2 -norm regularized regression model for construction of robust cluster expansions in multicomponent systems

In this work we introduce ℓ 0 ℓ 2 -norm regularization and hierarchy constraints into linear regression for the construction of cluster expansions to describe configurational disorder in materials. The approach is implemented through mixed integer quadratic programming (MIQP). The ℓ 2 -norm regularization is used to suppress intrinsic data noise, while the ℓ 0 -norm is used to penalize the number of nonzero elements in the solution. The hierarchy relation between clusters imposes relevant physics and is naturally included by the MIQP paradigm. As such, sparseness and cluster hierarchy can be well optimized to obtain a robust, converged set of effective cluster interactions with improved physical meaning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ℓ 0 ℓ 2 -norm regularization in two high-component disordered rocksalt cathode material systems, where we compare the cross-validation, convergence speed, and the reproduction of phase diagrams, voltage profiles, and Li-occupancy energies with those of the conventional ℓ 1 -norm regularized cluster expansion models.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Generation of Data-Driven Expected Energy Models for Photovoltaic Systems

Although unique expected energy models can be generated for a given photovoltaic (PV) site, a standardized model is also needed to facilitate performance comparisons across fleets. Current standardized expected energy models for PV work well with sparse data, but they have demonstrated significant over-estimations, which impacts accurate diagnoses of field operations and maintenance issues. This research addresses this issue by using machine learning to develop a data-driven expected energy model that can more accurately generate inferences for energy production of PV systems. Irradiance and system capacity information was used from 172 sites across the United States to train a series of models using Lasso linear regression. The trained models generally perform better than the commonly used expected energy model from international standard (IEC 61724-1), with the two highest performing models ranging in model complexity from a third-order polynomial with 10 parameters (Radj2 = 0.994) to a simpler, second-order polynomial with 4 parameters (Radj2=0.993), the latter of which is subject to further evaluation. Subsequently, the trained models provide a more robust basis for identifying potential energy anomalies for operations and maintenance activities as well as informing planning-related financial assessments. We conclude with directions for future research, such as using splines to improve model continuity and better capture systems with low (≤1000 kW DC) capacity.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Population genomic response to geographic gradients by widespread and endemic fishes of the Arabian Peninsula

Genetic structure within marine species may be driven by local adaptation to their environment, or alternatively by historical processes, such as geographic isolation. The gulfs and seas bordering the Arabian Peninsula offer an ideal setting to examine connectivity patterns in coral reef fishes with respect to environmental gradients and vicariance. The Red Sea is characterized by a unique marine fauna, historical periods of desiccation and isolation, as well as environmental gradients in salinity, temperature, and primary productivity that vary both by latitude and by season. The adjacent Arabian Sea is characterized by a sharper environmental gradient, ranging from extensive coral cover and warm temperatures in the southwest, to sparse coral cover, cooler temperatures, and seasonal upwelling in the northeast. Reef fish, however, are not confined to these seas, with some Red Sea fishes extending varying distances into the northern Arabian Sea, while their pelagic larvae are presumably capable of much greater dispersal. These species must therefore cope with a diversity of conditions that invoke the possibility of steep clines in natural selection. Here, we test for genetic structure in two widespread reef fish species (a butterflyfish and surgeonfish) and eight range-restricted butterflyfishes across the Red Sea and Arabian Sea using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms. We performed multiple matrix regression with randomization analyses on genetic distances for all species, as well as reconstructed scenarios for population subdivision in the species with signatures of isolation. We found that (a) widespread species displayed more genetic subdivision than regional endemics and (b) this genetic structure was not correlated with contemporary environmental parameters but instead may reflect historical events. We propose that the endemic species may be adapted to a diversity of local conditions, but the widespread species are instead subject to ecological filtering where different combinations of genotypes persist under divergent ecological regimes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ensemble Estimation of Historical Evapotranspiration for the Conterminous U.S.

Abstract Evapotranspiration (ET) is the largest component of the water budget, accounting for the majority of the water available from precipitation. ET is challenging to quantify because of the uncertainties associated with the many ET equations currently in use, and because observations of ET are uncertain and sparse. In this study, we combine information provided by available ET data and equations to produce a new monthly data set for ET for the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). These maps are produced from 1895 to 2018 at an 800 m spatial scale, marking a finer resolution than currently available products over this time period. In our approach, the relative performance of a suite of ET equations is assessed using water balance, flux tower, and remotely sensed ET estimates. At the observation locations, we use error distributions to quantify relative weights for the equations and use these in a modified Bayesian model averaging weighted ensemble approach. The relative weights are spatially generalized using a random forest regression, which is applied to wall‐to‐wall explanatory variable maps to generate CONUS‐wide relative weight maps and ensemble estimates. We assess the performance of the ensemble using a reserved subset of the observations and compare this performance against other national‐scale map products for historical to modern ET. The ensemble ET maps are shown to provide an improved accuracy over the alternative comparison products. These ET maps could be useful for a variety of hydrologic modeling and assessment applications that benefit from a long record, such as the study of periods of water scarcity through time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

An adaptive and stability-promoting layerwise training approach for sparse deep neural network architecture

This work presents a two-stage adaptive framework for progressively developing deep neural network (DNN) architectures that generalize well for a given training data set. In the first stage, a layerwise training approach is adopted where a new layer is added each time and trained independently by freezing parameters in the previous layers. We impose desirable structures on the DNN by employing manifold regularization, sparsity regularization, and physics-informed terms. We introduce a ε – δ – stability-promoting concept as a desirable property for a learning algorithm and show that employing manifold regularization yields a ε – δ stability-promoting algorithm. Further, we also derive the necessary conditions for the trainability of a newly added layer and investigate the training saturation problem. In the second stage of the algorithm (post-processing), a sequence of shallow networks is employed to extract information from the residual produced in the first stage, thereby improving the prediction accuracy. Numerical investigations on prototype regression and classification problems demonstrate that the proposed approach can outperform fully connected DNNs of the same size. Moreover, by equipping the physics-informed neural network (PINN) with the proposed adaptive architecture strategy to solve partial differential equations, we numerically show that adaptive PINNs not only are superior to standard PINNs but also produce interpretable hidden layers with provable stability. As a result, we also apply our architecture design strategy to solve inverse problems governed by elliptic partial differential equations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imaging mechanism for hyperspectral scanning probe microscopy via Gaussian process modelling

We investigate the ability to reconstruct and derive spatial structure from sparsely sampled 3D piezoresponse force microcopy data, captured using the band-excitation (BE) technique, via Gaussian Process (GP) methods. Even for weakly informative priors, GP methods allow unambiguous determination of the characteristic length scales of the imaging process both in spatial and frequency domains. We further show that BE data set tends to be oversampled in the spatial domains, with ~30% of original data set sufficient for high-quality reconstruction, potentially enabling faster BE imaging. At the same time, reliable reconstruction along the frequency domain requires the resonance peak to be within the measured band. This behavior suggests the optimal strategy for the BE imaging on unknown samples. Finally, we discuss how GP can be used for automated experimentation in SPM, by combining GP regression with non-rectangular scans.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

GenMod: A generative modeling approach for spectral representation of PDEs with random inputs

Here, we propose a method for quantifying uncertainty in high-dimensional PDE systems with random parameters, where the number of solution evaluations is small. Parametric PDE solutions are often approximated using a spectral decomposition based on polynomial chaos expansions. For the class of systems we consider (i.e., high dimensional with limited solution evaluations) the coefficients are given by an underdetermined linear system in a regression formulation. This implies additional assumptions, such as sparsity of the coefficient vector, are needed to approximate the solution. Here, we present an approach where we assume the coefficients are close to the range of a generative model that maps from a low to a high dimensional space of coefficients. Our approach is inspired be recent work examining how generative models can be used for compressed sensing in systems with random Gaussian measurement matrices. Using results from PDE theory on coefficient decay rates, we construct an explicit generative model that predicts the polynomial chaos coefficient magnitudes. The algorithm we developed to find the coefficients, which we call GenMod, is composed of two main steps. First, we predict the coefficient signs using Orthogonal Matching Pursuit. Then, we assume the coefficients are within a sparse deviation from the range of a sign-adjusted generative model. This allows us to find the coefficients by solving a nonconvex optimization problem, over the input space of the generative model and the space of sparse vectors. We obtain theoretical recovery results for a Lipschitz continuous generative model and for a more specific generative model, based on coefficient decay rate bounds. We examine three high-dimensional problems and show that, for all three examples, the generative model approach outperforms sparsity promoting methods at small sample sizes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessments of epistemic uncertainty using Gaussian stochastic weight averaging for fluid-flow regression

Here, we use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the epistemic uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight, given training data, and a constant learning rate. Having access to this distribution, it is able to create multiple models with various combinations of sampled weights, which can be used to obtain ensemble predictions. The average of such an ensemble can be regarded as the 'mean estimation', whereas its standard deviation can be used to construct 'confidence intervals', which enable us to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) with regard to the training process of neural networks. We utilize representative neural-network-based function approximation tasks for the following cases: (i) a two-dimensional circular-cylinder wake; (ii) the DayMET dataset (maximum daily temperature in North America); (iii) a three-dimensional square-cylinder wake; and (iv) urban flow, to assess the generalizability of the present idea for a wide range of complex datasets. SWAG-based UQ can be applied regardless of the network architecture, and therefore, we demonstrate the applicability of the method for two types of neural networks: (i) global field reconstruction from sparse sensors by combining convolutional neural network (CNN) and multi-layer perceptron (MLP); and (ii) far-field state estimation from sectional data with two-dimensional CNN. We find that SWAG can obtain physically-interpretable confidence-interval estimates from the perspective of epistemic uncertainty. This capability supports its use for a wide range of problems in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗