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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Optimizing Prediction Error for Time-dependent Solar Radiation Modeling

Numerical weather forecasting models and statistical methods have found wide use to help power companies estimate renewable output, but better methods are needed, particularly for extended forecasts. Machine learning approaches have been used here as well, but so far a major limitation is the ability to also predict the corresponding uncertainty in a forecast. Here we show that both can be done and demonstrate this using a long-term-short memory neural network where the difference between predicted and ground truth data are used to train a model for the corresponding forecast uncertainties.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar, Wind, and Load Forecasting Dataset for MISO, NYISO, and SPP Balancing Areas

The Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program is an initiative intended to foster "a fundamental shift in grid management rooted in an understanding of asset risk and system risk" (ARPA-E 2020). Launched by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), the program supports efforts to incorporate uncertainty in electric power decision making. In support of PERFORM, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has produced a set of time-coincident forecasts of solar, wind, and load profiles. As part of Phase I of the PERFORM effort, NREL created a dataset that consists of one year of time-coincident load, wind, and solar actuals and probabilistic forecasts based on data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Bryce et al. 2023). In Phase II, NREL developed similar datasets for three other U.S. Independent System Operators (ISO): the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Optimization of Capital Cost and Expected O&M

Concentrating solar power (CSP) technologies can utilize heat from concentrated sunlight from a field of tracking mirrors to generate electricity, reform fuel, provide process heat, or augment fossil plant heat sources. Electricity-generating power tower systems focus light from thousands of independent heliostats onto a thermal receiver, which uses the focused light to warm a heat transfer fluid (HTF), typically, a molten nitrate salt. The HTF is then sent to a power generation cycle or diverted into thermal energy storage (TES) for later use. Thermal storage is – in principle – a straightforward proposition. However, optimal utilization of a TES resource is complex and multi-faceted: thermal energy may be dispatched to produce electricity immediately upon first availability, or thermal energy may be reserved for next-day peak periods at risk of filling storage and dumping energy, or a portion of the thermal energy can be reserved to maintain equipment temperatures, reducing power cycle startup time, etc. Many possible dispatch permutations variously emphasize producing peak power, operating through transients, expediting daily startup, etc. The best operation strategy can change day-to-day throughout the year, depending on the weather and market pricing forecasts. The project we describe in this report develops a software package that allows users to explore design optimization, operations decisions, and performance characterization of concentrating solar power tower plants. Users interface with the tool through a scripting language, and results are reported in time series tables, plots, runtime logs, and design outputs. Users choose from a list of variables such as tower height, solar multiple, design-point irradiance, thermal storage size, etc., and specify information about the system using a list of parameters. The software can then optimize the specified variables to reduce the cost of energy produced by the system while meeting certain production requirements, accounting for uncertain weather and electricity price forecasts, and correcting for equipment failures or repair time. The software we develop is the first comprehensive design tool of its kind to incorporate all of these aspects while being deployed as open source.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2015

Solar Storm GIC Forecasting: Solar Shield Extension Development of the End-User Forecasting System Requirements

A NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Heliophysics Science Division-led team that includes NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, the Catholic University of America, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and Electric Research and Management, Inc., recently partnered with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) to better understand the impact of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) on the electric power industry. This effort builds on a previous NASA-sponsored Applied Sciences Program for predicting GIC, known as Solar Shield. The focus of the new DHS S&T funded effort is to revise and extend the existing Solar Shield system to enhance its forecasting capability and provide tailored, timely, actionable information for electric utility decision makers. To enhance the forecasting capabilities of the new Solar Shield, a key undertaking is to extend the prediction system coverage across Contiguous United States (CONUS), as the previous version was only applicable to high latitudes. The team also leverages the latest enhancements in space weather modeling capacity residing at Community Coordinated Modeling Center to increase the Technological Readiness Level, or Applications Readiness Level of the system http://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/ExpandedARLDefinitions4813.pdf.

space weather↗
NASA NTRS2006

Non Radiation Hardened Microprocessors in Spaced Based Remote Sensing Systems

The CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations) mission is a comprehensive suite of active and passive sensors including a 20Hz 230mj Nd:YAG lidar, a visible wavelength Earth-looking camera and an imaging infrared radiometer. CALIPSO flies in formation with the Earth Observing System Post-Meridian (EOS PM) train, provides continuous, near-simultaneous measurements and is a planned 3 year mission. CALIPSO was launched into a 98 degree sun synchronous Earth orbit in April of 2006 to study clouds and aerosols and acquires over 5 gigabytes of data every 24 hours. The ground track of one CALIPSO orbit as well as high and low intensity South Atlantic Anomaly outlines is shown. CALIPSO passes through the SAA several times each day. Spaced based remote sensing systems that include multiple instruments and/or instruments such as lidar generate large volumes of data and require robust real-time hardware and software mechanisms and high throughput processors. Due to onboard storage restrictions and telemetry downlink limitations these systems must pre-process and reduce the data before sending it to the ground. This onboard processing and realtime requirement load may mean that newer more powerful processors are needed even though acceptable radiation-hardened versions have not yet been released. CALIPSO's single board computer payload controller processor is actually a set of four (4) voting non-radiation hardened COTS Power PC 603r's built on a single width VME card by General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems (GDAIS). Significant radiation concerns for CALIPSO and other Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites include the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA), the north and south poles and strong solar events. Over much of South America and extending into the South Atlantic Ocean the Van Allen radiation belts dip to just 200-800km and spacecraft entering this area are subjected to high energy protons and experience higher than normal Single Event Upset (SEU) and Single Event Latch-up (SEL) rates. Although less significant, spacecraft flying in the area around the poles experience similar upsets. Finally, powerful solar proton events in the range of 10MeV/10pfu to 100MeV/1pfu as are forecasted and tracked by NOAA's Space Environment Center in Colorado can result in Single Event Upset (SEU), Single Event Latch-up (SEL) and permanent failures such as Single Event Gate Rupture (SEGR) in some technologies. (Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) are another source, especially for gate rupture) CALIPSO mitigates common radiation concerns in its data handling through the use of redundant processors, radiation-hardened Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC), hardware-based Error Detection and Correction (EDAC), processor and memory scrubbing, redundant boot code and mirrored files. After presenting a system overview this paper will expand on each of these strategies. Where applicable, related on-orbit data collected since the CALIPSO initial boot on May 4, 2006 will be noted.

Decoursey, Robert J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of WRF-Solar Cloud Forecast Using the NSRDB: Preprint

Cloud forecast is a crucial component in predicting solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Assessing cloud properties from the NWP models requires significant work due to the need for high-quality data, spatial analysis covering model extent, and detailed analysis of model performance for different types of clouds. This study presents an evaluation of the WRF-Solar cloud forecast using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). We propose an evaluation framework applied to a single model prediction as well as ensemble-based forecasts. Various cloud detection metrics are calculated when comparing with the satellite-derived dataset. The mismatched clouds from the WRF-Solar model are quantified using nine cloud types classified by cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The results based on the WRF-Solar forecasts covering the entire U.S. for the full year of 2018 shows mismatched cloud frequency in the range of 8% - 46% for thick and high-level (deep convective) to thin and low-level (cumulus) clouds.

cloud mask forecast↗
DOE OSTI2022

Benchmarking of Solar Irradiance Nowcast Performance Derived from All-Sky Imagers

Fluctuations of the incoming solar irradiance impact the power generation from photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal power plants. Accurate solar nowcasting becomes necessary to detect these sudden changes of generated power and to provide the desired information for optimal exploitation of solar systems. In the framework of the International Energy Agency's Photovoltaic Power Systems Program Task 16, a benchmarking exercise has been conducted relying on a bouquet of solar nowcasting methodologies by all-sky imagers (ASI). In this paper, four ASI systems nowcast the Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) with a time forecast ranging from 1 to 20 min during 28 days with variable cloud conditions spanning from September to November 2019 in southern Spain. All ASIs demonstrated their ability to accurately nowcast GHI, with RMSE ranging from 6.9% to 18.1%. Under cloudy conditions, all ASIs' nowcasts outperform the persistence models. Under clear skies, three ASIs are better than persistence. Discrepancies in the observed nowcasting performance become larger at increasing forecast horizons. The findings of this study highlight the feasibility of ASIs to reliably nowcast GHI at different sky conditions, time intervals and horizons. Such nowcasts can be used either to estimate solar power at distant times or detect sudden GHI fluctuations.

all-sky imagers↗
DOE OSTI2020

SCOPE: Spectral cloud optical property estimation using real-time GOES-R longwave imagery

The output of ground-based, solar power generation systems is strongly dependent on cloud cover, which is the main contributor to solar power variability and uncertainty. Cloud optical properties are typically over-simplified in forecasting applications due to the lack of realtime, accurate estimates. In this work, we introduce a method, the Spectral Cloud Optical Property Estimation (SCOPE), for estimating cloud optical properties directly from high-resolution (5-min, 2 km) imagery from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R, which is the newest generation of the GOES system. The SCOPE method couples a two-stream, spectrally resolved radiative model with the longwave GOES-R sensor output to simultaneously estimate the cloud optical depth, cloud top height, and cloud thickness during both day and night at 5-min intervals. The accuracy of SCOPE is evaluated using one year (2018) of downwelling longwave (DLW) radiation measurements from the Surface Radiation Budget Network, which consists of seven sites spread across climatically diverse regions of the contiguous United States. During daytime clear-sky periods, SCOPE predicts DLW within instrument uncertainty (10 W m -2 ) for four of the seven locations, with the remaining locations yielding errors of the order of 11.2, 17.7, and 20.2 W m -2 . For daytime cloudy-sky, daytime all-sky (clear or cloudy), and nighttime all-sky periods, SCOPE achieves root mean square error values of 23.0–34.5 W m -2 for all seven locations. These results, together with the low-latency of the method (1 s per sample), show that SCOPE provides a viable solution to real-time, accurate estimation of cloud optical properties for both day and night.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Australian Solar Energy Forecasting System (ASEFS) (CRADA CRD-14-541 Final Report)

This project forms a part of the broader project with the same name which is funded by ASI under the US-Australia Solar Energy Collaboration (Broader Project). The Broader Project involves a number of other participants, being the University of New South Wales, the University of South Australia, the Australian Energy Market Operator Limited and the Commonwealth of Australia acting through the Bureau of Meteorology (Other Participants). NREL and CSIRO will each work with the Other Participants in the performance of this CRADA. However, for the avoidance of doubt, this CRADA does not cover the whole of the Broader Project and only relates to the work described in this Joint Work Statement, which is to be carried out by NREL. In the course of this project, NREL may be provided with materials belonging to CSIRO or the Other Participants, which it may use solely for the purpose of performing the project described in this Joint Work Statement. Similarly, CSIRO may provide NREL project materials to Other Participants pursuant to Article IX or XV of the CRADA, for the purpose of performing research forming part of the Broader Project in collaboration with CSIRO.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Uncertainty-Informed and High-Fidelity Performance Forecasting Framework for Heliostat Fields

Concentrating Solar Thermal (CST) tower systems employ heliostat fields to direct solar energy to a central receiver, which then transfers the heat either directly to a thermal process (e.g., steam production) or to a thermal energy storage system for future use. Heliostat fields compose a significant proportion of the project costs of a CST tower system and the performance of the heliostats determines a plant's productivity at a given location. While CST characterization tools such as SolarPILOT and System Advisor Model (SAM) include a large collection of inputs that influence the performance of a CST tower system, many are uncertain prior to the development of the project and may have a significant impact on the overall energy delivery and profitability of a project; moreover, the fidelity of these models under default conditions may be insufficient to determine the value of component improvements such as those under development in the Heliostat Consortium. This work introduces a Monte Carlo simulation framework that incorporates uncertainty in key performance parameters to generate confidence intervals and percentile estimates for a CST solar field's energy delivery.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar PV, Wind Generation, and Load Forecasting Dataset for ERCOT 2018: Performance-Based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (P.E.R.F.O.R.M.)

This report describes the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy Performance-Based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) dataset consisting of load, solar, and wind deterministic and probabilistic forecasts at three timescales. This dataset consists of 1 year of time-coincident load, wind, and solar actuals and probabilistic forecasts for a region similar to ERCOT. All the data are stored in Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) files and have been uploaded to an Amazon Web Services repository. The ERCOT data set has 2 years (2017, 2018) of actuals and 1 year (2018) of probabilistic forecasts. These data are provided at various spatial (i.e., site-level, zone-level, and system-level) and temporal scales (i.e., day-ahead, intraday, and intra-hour). Specifically, data are provided for 125 existing wind sites, 22 existing solar sites, 139 proposed wind sites, and 204 proposed solar sites.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data efficiency assessment of generative adversarial networks in energy applications

This study investigates the data requirements of generative artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative adversarial networks (GANs), for reliable data augmentation in energy applications. Generative AI, though seen as a solution to data limitations, requires substantial data to learn meaningful distributions—a challenge often overlooked. This study addresses the challenge through synthetic data generation for critical heat flux (CHF) and power grid demand, focusing on renewable and nuclear energy. Two variants of GAN employed are conditional GAN (cGAN) and Wasserstein GAN (wGAN). Our findings include the strong dependency of GAN on data size, with performance declining on smaller datasets and varying performance when generalizing to unseen experiments. Mass flux and heated length significantly influence CHF predictions. wGAN is more robust to feature exclusion, making it suitable for constrained synthetic data generation. In energy demand forecasting, wGAN performed well for solar, wind, and load predictions. Longer lookback hours and larger datasets improved predictions, especially for load power. Seasonal variations posed challenges, with wGAN achieving a relatively high error of Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.32 for load power prediction, compared to RMSE of 0.07 under same-season conditions. Feature exclusions impacted cGAN the most, while wGAN showed greater robustness. This study concludes that, while generative AI is effective for data augmentation, it requires substantial data and careful training to generate realistic synthetic data and generalize to new experiments in engineering applications.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

New Technologies for Power System Operation and Analysis, 1st Edition

New Technologies for Power System Operation and Analysis considers the very latest developments in renewable energy integration and system operation, including electricity markets and wide-area monitoring systems and forecasting. Helping readers quickly grasp the essential information needed to address renewable energy integration challenges, this new book looks at basic power system mathematical models, advanced renewable integration and system optimizations from transmission and distribution system sides. Sections cover wind, solar, gas and petroleum, making this a useful reference for all engineers interested in power system operation.

electricity markets↗
DOE OSTI2020

Electricity Produced from Photovoltaic Systems in Apartment Buildings and Self-Consumption: Comparison of the Situation in Various IEA PVPS Countries

Over the last two decades, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems have increased from a niche market to one of the leading power generation capacity additions annually. In 2018 the total installed photovoltaic electricity generation capacity exceeded 500 GW. Another doubling is forecasted until the early 2020s. Therefore, the further development is coupled with the question at what prices solar photovoltaic electricity can be provided and delivered to the customers. The installation of PV systems for self-consumption is already now an interesting option for many people but in general limited to those who have access to a rooftop they own or can use. A new envelopment to enable residents of multi apartment buildings to commonly use electricity generated by a PV system (collective self-consumption) is a relatively new development and is still facing a lot of administrative and regulatory challenges.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Ceramic Heat Exchanger for Next-Generation Concentrated Solar Power

The U.S. Department of Energy has identified a third generation of concentrated solar power (Gen3 CSP) technologies to minimize cost of CSP produced electricity. By developing these technologies further, it is forecasted that Gen3 CSP will meet the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) SunShot target of 6 cents/kWh to compete with dominant, conventional nonrenewable energy sources (1). The focus for advancing CSP systems for Gen3 is to increase overall system efficiency. Thus, reevaluating second-generation systems, superheated steam-turbine power cycles, and implementing more advanced power cycles is essential. Specifically, it has been identified that a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) Brayton cycle can increase the net thermal-to-electric efficiency to over 50% for CSP power tower configurations (2). Compared to conventional superheated steam Rankine cycle systems, more extreme operating conditions are required and pose critical barriers to overcome in the field of materials and manufacturing for Gen3 CSP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use Probabilistic Forecasts in Reliable and Economic Electricity Market Scheduling and Operations

The value of probabilistic forecasts in electricity market operations is being increasingly recognized lately, however, the use is still limited. This study demonstrates two cases of using probabilistic forecasts in scheduling and operations of the California electricity market. We first develop a data-driven method to give weather-informed estimates of ramping reserves based on short-term probabilistic solar irradiance forecasts. By using forecasts across multiple sites, our proposed method presents advantages over the real-world baseline in terms of system reliability and economics. Our second case uses probabilistic hydro power forecasts in the scheduling of a hydro power plant under economic and environmental constraints. By optimizing the bids into both the day-ahead and real-time markets, our results demonstrate considerable economic benefits.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗