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Machine learning methods for weather forecasting

SAND2025-14466O This repository contains code for developing, training, and evaluating machine learning models for weather and climate forecasting, including forecast skill assessment, feature importance analysis, and reproducible workflows for model comparison. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Holthuijzen, Maike [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA),↗

Wyandotte Integrated Renewable Energy Strategy (WIRES 2) (Final Technical Report)

Wyandotte Municipal Services (WMS), a Michigan Municipal Utility offering electric generation, transmission & distribution, water filtration & distribution and Broadband/Video sought to deploy a set of renewable energy projects for their Electric Utility that contributed to reducing the City’s environmental and energy impact, provided examples that would encourage businesses and citizens to adopt cleaner energy practices and help WMS meet the required renewable energy standards of the State of Michigan (10% in 2015, 15% in 2021). WMS generates and delivers roughly 280,000 megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity annually to more than 10,000 homes and 1,000 businesses within the City of Wyandotte. The Wyandotte Integrated Renewable Energy Strategy – WIRES 2 resulted in deployment of a set of community-scale micro-wind turbines, evaluation and installation of energy-efficient and low-maintenance light-emitting diode (LED) street lights and park lights in highly visible locations in the City and expansion of the geothermal heating and cooling district that already included residential geothermal systems, to include larger scale business/institutional systems at the Utility’s largest electric customer and at the City Library. Finally, WMS identified the need for job training in energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies to further develop a local skilled workforce in these areas. Partially funded by the grant, the wind turbine project provides a benchmark for WMS, local businesses and residents in the evaluation of utility-scale wind v. micro-wind in an urban environment as a renewable energy strategy. Also partially funded by the grant, the LED project benefited the City of Wyandotte by reducing load on the electric system for the public utility but also reduced City costs for streetlighting, parking lot lighting and park lighting without a compromise in security. The project also resulted in a visual success that has led to additional approvals for non-Grant related LED lighting installations resulting in further reduction in the electric load in the City. Commercial Geothermal installations resulted in the Utility being able to eliminate steam customers who formerly utilized the byproduct of steam from WMS electric production. Due to the reduction in natural gas prices and the overall reduction in market purchased power, it was no longer feasible for WMS to operate its Power Plant as a base load plant and to only operate on a market dispatch philosophy when market prices dictated that WMS could produce electricity cheaper than the market purchase price. This has resulted in fewer operating days for the WMS Power Plant, resulting in less environmental impact. WMS has now completely exited the steam business and the ability to offer a geothermal option to two (2) former steam customers (BASF-Wyandotte and the Bacon Memorial Library) allowed for that. In addition, peak loads have been shaved for these two (2) large customers due to the consistent temperature offered by geothermal heating and cooling, reducing the swings associated with thermostat changes caused by outside temperature changes during extreme high and low temperatures. Finally, energy efficiency and renewable energy college-level classes at Wayne County Community College allowed a group of interested students to pursue studies in those technologies through grant provided tuition, books and course materials. This effort provided a foundation of potential future employees not only for WMS but other energy efficiency/renewable energy employers such as Franklin Energy, a partner with WMS in energy optimization efforts with Wyandotte businesses.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Seeding picoscale solutions for social macro goals: complex thinking in projects for vulnerable communities

This chapter presents lessons learned from two experiences of implementing sociopoliticalsustainability strategies to achieve environmental and economic sustainability.The projects were carried out in rural communities in Guinea-Bissau andJamaica, which are both vulnerable to climate change. Each experience, developedfrom a systemic perspective and under two frameworks (the water–food–energynexus and ‘Appropriate Technology’), is described in four phases (problemcharacterization, solution design, solution pre-evaluation, and implementation),with the significant findings made by the team in terms of challenges, rewards, andessential conditions for development. Both deal with environment-friendly solutionsthat solve the problems of water and energy provision. Based on complex thinking,the experiences are analyzed from the social inclusion, participation, empowerment,and learning theory viewpoints. Finally, the insights gained by the team arehighlighted: communication requirements, the level of dependency of industrializedsolutions, budget constraints, training, testing, and planning recommendations, thediversity of interaction with the communities, and partners’ skills. As a result, futureactions can exploit these experiences and contribute to the success of subsequentprojects.

Pereira Pinto, Joao↗

Workforce Development Opportunities Through the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants Program 2025

The increasing global demand for energy underscores the importance of energy efficiency and sustainability. To address these challenges in the US manufacturing sector, the US Department of Energy has implemented the Better Plants and Better Climate Challenge programs. These initiatives aim to reduce energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and water usage in industrial facilities. This paper highlights a critical component of these programs, workforce development, which equips individuals with the skills and knowledge to implement energy-saving measures. Through the variety of training opportunities discussed, including bootcamps, in-plant trainings, virtual trainings, and annual events, the programs are able to cater to a wide range of industrial participants, from entry-level professionals to experienced engineers. By fostering collaboration and knowledge sharing and by leveraging certifications offered by organizations like the Association of Energy Engineers, these initiatives empower individuals to drive innovation and sustainable practices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Best practices: Organizational execution

This article, the fourth and final installment in the DOE–IDEA series, focuses on organizational execution and how strong management practices, teamwork, and preparedness contribute to successful district energy systems. It highlights case studies from Ashley Energy and Cornell University to illustrate effective operational strategies. Ashley Energy demonstrates the importance of emergency preparedness and rapid response. After a major flood disrupted its plant, the organization restored service in under 72 hours by relying on pre-established plans, vendor relationships, and trained staff. The case emphasizes proactive contingency planning, understanding insurance processes, and empowering skilled personnel to improvise during crises. Cornell University’s example highlights the role of collaboration and transparency in long-term success. Its district energy system benefits from strong data sharing, real-time energy monitoring, and active involvement of faculty and students in system planning and innovation. This culture of teamwork and data-driven decision-making supports sustainability goals and continuous system improvement. Overall, the article shows that effective organizational execution—through preparedness, collaboration, and data transparency—is essential for maintaining reliable, efficient, and sustainable district energy systems.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Improving the accessibility and transferability of machine learning algorithms for identification of animals in camera trap images: MLWIC2

Motion-activated wildlife cameras (or “camera traps”) are frequently used to remotely and noninvasively observe animals. The vast number of images collected from camera trap projects has prompted some biologists to employ machine learning algorithms to automatically recognize species in these images, or at least filter-out images that do not contain animals. These approaches are often limited by model transferability, as a model trained to recognize species from one location might not work as well for the same species in different locations. Furthermore, these methods often require advanced computational skills, making them inaccessible to many biologists. We used 3 million camera trap images from 18 studies in 10 states across the United States of America to train two deep neural networks, one that recognizes 58 species, the “species model,” and one that determines if an image is empty or if it contains an animal, the “empty-animal model.” Our species model and empty-animal model had accuracies of 96.8% and 97.3%, respectively. Furthermore, the models performed well on some out-of-sample datasets, as the species model had 91% accuracy on species from Canada (accuracy range 36%–91% across all out-of-sample datasets) and the empty-animal model achieved an accuracy of 91%–94% on out-of-sample datasets from different continents. Our software addresses some of the limitations of using machine learning to classify images from camera traps. By including many species from several locations, our species model is potentially applicable to many camera trap studies in North America. We also found that our empty-animal model can facilitate removal of images without animals globally. We provide the trained models in an R package (MLWIC2: Machine Learning for Wildlife Image Classification in R), which contains Shiny Applications that allow scientists with minimal programming experience to use trained models and train new models in six neural network architectures with varying depths.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

BOPTest As a Platform for Building Controls and Grid-Interactive Buildings Workforce Training

Building automation and controls are becoming increasingly complex with the emergence of Grid Integrated Efficient Buildings (GEBs) as well as new highly efficient sequences of operation and data-driven control schemes. However, there remains a significant gap in hands-on training opportunities for building operators and technicians to gain practical experience with advanced control systems in a low-risk environment. This paper presents BOPTEST (Building Optimization Performance Test) as a suitable platform for workforce training in building controls and GEB technologies. BOPTEST provides a suite of standardized building simulation test cases with a REST API, real-time control interfaces through BACnet, semantic models connecting users to building data, and built-in calculation of control metrics and performance indicators. The platform enables trainees to interact with virtual buildings using industry-standard protocols while learning how to implement and innovate control strategies. The training platform is designed to offer a structured and interactive learning experience for building engineers, helping them effectively develop, learn, and retain skills in fault identification, troubleshooting, and correction. The workflow is divided into three main phases: 1) Setup, 2) Exercise, and 3) Review, each comprising specific activities performed by either the instructor or the student. Initial pilot training sessions have yielded positive feedback from instructors and participants and demonstrates that BOPTEST effectively fills an industry need for a low-risk training resource via simulation of real building control systems, allowing trainees to gain practical experience before working in the field. The platform's ability to provide immediate performance feedback while maintaining familiar industry interfaces makes it particularly suitable for workforce development programs. This work provides a replicable model for leveraging building simulation in control education and training.

Paul, Lazlo↗

BOPTEST as a Platform for Building Controls and Grid-Interactive Buildings Workforce Training

Building automation and controls are becoming increasingly complex with the emergence of Grid Integrated Efficient Buildings (GEBs) as well as new highly efficient sequences of operation and data-driven control schemes. However, there remains a significant gap in hands-on training opportunities for building operators and technicians to gain practical experience with advanced control systems in a low-risk environment. This paper presents BOPTEST (Building Optimization Performance Test) as a suitable platform for workforce training in building controls and GEB technologies. BOPTEST provides a suite of standardized building simulation test cases with a REST API, real-time control interfaces through BACnet, semantic models connecting users to building data, and built-in calculation of control metrics and performance indicators. The platform enables trainees to interact with virtual buildings using industry-standard protocols while learning how to implement and innovate control strategies. The training platform is designed to offer a structured and interactive learning experience for building engineers, helping them effectively develop, learn, and retain skills in fault identification, troubleshooting, and correction. The workflow is divided into three main phases: 1) Setup, 2) Exercise, and 3) Review, each comprising specific activities performed by either the instructor or the student. Initial pilot training sessions have yielded positive feedback from instructors and participants and demonstrates that BOPTEST effectively fills an industry need for a low-risk training resource via simulation of real building control systems, allowing trainees to gain practical experience before working in the field. The platform's ability to provide immediate performance feedback while maintaining familiar industry interfaces makes it particularly suitable for workforce development programs. This work provides a replicable model for leveraging building simulation in control education and training.

Paul, Lazlo↗

Using Convolutional Neural Network to Emulate Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract It has been widely recognized that tropical cyclone (TC) genesis requires favorable large‐scale environmental conditions. Based on these linkages, numerous efforts have been made to establish an empirical relationship between seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental favorability in a quantitative way, which lead to conceptual functions such as the TC genesis index. However, due to the limited amount of reliable TC observations and complexity of the climate system, a simple analytic function may not be an accurate portrait of the empirical relationship between TCs and their ambiences. In this research, we use convolution neural networks (CNNs) to disentangle this complex relationship. To circumvent the limited amount of seasonal TC observation records, we implement transfer‐learning technique to train ensemble of CNNs first on suites of high‐resolution climate model simulations with realistic seasonal TC activities and large‐scale environmental conditions, and then on a state‐of‐the‐art reanalysis from 1950 to 2019. The trained CNNs can well reproduce the historical TC records and yields significant seasonal prediction skills when the large‐scale environmental inputs are provided by operational climate forecasts. Furthermore, by inputting the ensemble CNNs with 20th century reanalysis products and Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations, we investigated TC variability and its changes in the past and future climates. Specifically, our ensemble CNNs project a decreasing trend of global mean TC activity in the future warming scenario, which is consistent with our future projections using high‐resolution climate model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

TSQP: ADDIE- Development and Implementation [Slides]

The purpose of this course is to help you develop the skills necessary to complete the Development and Implementation Phases of the Systematic Approach to Training (SAT) according to the expectations of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the Department of Energy (DOE).

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Searches for New Long-Lived Particles and Upgrade to the ATLAS Inner Detector (Final Technical Report)

The search for new fundamental particles is one of the defining goals of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The discovery of the Higgs Boson by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations provided the capstone of the Standard Model of particle physics, but outstanding questions remain. Why does the Higgs boson have a mass of 125 GeV when its natural mass would be many orders of magnitude larger? Is there a universal symmetry which unites all three forces described by the Standard Model? Can that symmetry be extended to include gravity? Is dark matter, evidenced by astronomical observations, made of a particle that interacts via Standard Model forces with the rest of matter? Together, these motivations provide compelling arguments that new physical processes await discovery. This project addressed some outstanding questions about the fundamental particles and their interactions with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. In particular, the project improved the discovery potential for new, long- lived particles produced via electroweak processes in proton-proton collisions and set world-leading limits on their existence for certain values of their potential mass and lifetime. To achieve this, the project developed new data analysis methods, developed new triggers to select events with new long-lived particles during data-taking of the ATLAS experiment, and analyzed the largest proton–proton collision dataset ever produced. The project also supported significant development of the data acquisition software for the upgrade to the ATLAS inner detector, the Inner TracKer (ITk). The upgrade of the ATLAS inner detector is essential to the success of the entire Phase II physics program on ATLAS. Personnel supported by the project provided support for integration, assembly, and testing of the inner two layers of the ITk pixel system during its prototype and pre-production phase. Four PhD students and two post-doctoral scholars were supported by the grant and received invaluable scientific training as part of the research endeavor. The students and postdocs gained essential professional skills in the areas of advanced data analysis techniques, statistical analysis of data and simulation, programming in C++ and Python, hardware and instrumentation development, and presentation and collaboration skills. Additionally, approximately ten undergraduate students supported through other funding sources participated in research activities synergistic with the goals of this project, receiving essential mentorship from the personnel supported by this project.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Gen IV Education and Training Working Group Webinars’ Initiative

Collaboration and support among national laboratories, industry, universities, and research and development organizations are vital to not only maintain a skilled and competent nuclear workforce but also to avert the risk of human resource shortages. As stated in a recent IAEA paper [1], the world nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 554 GW(e) by 2030 and up to 874 GW(e) by 2050 (Fig. 1). This represents a 42% increase over current levels by 2030 and a doubling of the current capacity by 2050. To promote Education and Training (E&T) on Gen IV reactor systems and other nuclear related topics of interest, the Gen IV Education and Training Working Group (ETWG) identifies and advertises training courses; engages collaboration with other international education and training organizations; delivers webinars dedicated to Gen IV systems; and maintains a modern social medium platform to exchange information and ideas on Gen IV R&D topics, as well as on related GIF education and training activities. At the end of June 2020, the GIF ETWG has produced, podcasted and posted forty-one webinars covering the six Gen IV systems and various subjects addressing e.g. the economics of the nuclear fuel cycle, sustainability aspects of Gen IV systems, nuclear fuels and materials challenges, the thorium fuel cycle, energy conversion systems, and lessons learned for knowledge management and preservation. This paper describes the development of these webinars from the initial concept to its full realization, with future webinars planned in 2021, addressing topics such as materials and fuels performance for advanced reactors, small modular reactor.

Paviet, Patricia D.↗

Educating HPC Users in the use of advanced computing technology

We examine a multi-modal approach to educating and training users of an advanced computing technology testbed at the Institute for Advanced Computational Science at Stony Brook University. Ookami provides researchers worldwide with access to 176 Fujitsu A64FX compute nodes, this being the same processor technology powering the Japanese Fugaku supercomputer, the fastest computer in the world since June 2020. However, achieving high-performance on this Arm-based, leadership computing technology requires that users be familiar with details of computer architecture, performance analysis and modeling, and high-performance programming models that are commonly omitted in introductory programming courses. Indeed, regardless of their seniority, many of the testbed users are surprisingly unfamiliar with basic concepts such as vectorization, pipelining, latency/bandwidth, roofline models, computing energy/power, threads, and non-uniform memory access. These same concepts also pervade mainstream x86 technologies, so this is of widespread concern. Due to the national/global nature of our user community that is also very diverse in both discipline and experience, the inability to offer formal classes, and our experience that most people do not tend to read online documentation or training materials in sufficient depth, we have consciously employed multiple approaches that heavily emphasize (online) personal interactions and transfer of skills. Online documentation has been organized around best-practices and FAQs; twice-weekly hackathons and office hours via Zoom enable deep dives by both the team and the user community with multiple broad benefits; a Slack channel provides both real time and archived answers and discussions; and workshops, training and webinars target community needs as they arise. Furthermore, the perspective that these tools are being used in an educational setting rather than just for project communication makes them more effective and contributes to community success.

A64FX↗

A machine learning approach to emulation and biophysical parameter estimation with the Community Land Model, version 5

Abstract. Land models are essential tools for understanding and predicting terrestrial processes and climate–carbon feedbacks in the Earth system, but uncertainties in their future projections are poorly understood. Improvements in physical process realism and the representation of human influence arguably make models more comparable to reality but also increase the degrees of freedom in model configuration, leading to increased parametric uncertainty in projections. In this work we design and implement a machine learning approach to globally calibrate a subset of the parameters of the Community Land Model, version 5 (CLM5) to observations of carbon and water fluxes. We focus on parameters controlling biophysical features such as surface energy balance, hydrology, and carbon uptake. We first use parameter sensitivity simulations and a combination of objective metrics including ranked global mean sensitivity to multiple output variables and non-overlapping spatial pattern responses between parameters to narrow the parameter space and determine a subset of important CLM5 biophysical parameters for further analysis. Using a perturbed parameter ensemble, we then train a series of artificial feed-forward neural networks to emulate CLM5 output given parameter values as input. We use annual mean globally aggregated spatial variability in carbon and water fluxes as our emulation and calibration targets. Validation and out-of-sample tests are used to assess the predictive skill of the networks, and we utilize permutation feature importance and partial dependence methods to better interpret the results. The trained networks are then used to estimate global optimal parameter values with greater computational efficiency than achieved by hand tuning efforts and increased spatial scale relative to previous studies optimizing at a single site. By developing this methodology, our framework can help quantify the contribution of parameter uncertainty to overall uncertainty in land model projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Training Ultrasound Image Classification Deep-Learning Algorithms for Pneumothorax Detection Using a Synthetic Tissue Phantom Apparatus

Ultrasound (US) imaging is a critical tool in emergency and military medicine because of its portability and immediate nature. However, proper image interpretation requires skill, limiting its utility in remote applications for conditions such as pneumothorax (PTX) which requires rapid intervention. Artificial intelligence has the potential to automate ultrasound image analysis for various pathophysiological conditions. Training models require large data sets and a means of troubleshooting in real-time for ultrasound integration deployment, and they also require large animal models or clinical testing. Here, we detail the development of a dynamic synthetic tissue phantom model for PTX and its use in training image classification algorithms. The model comprises a synthetic gelatin phantom cast in a custom 3D-printed rib mold and a lung mimicking phantom. When compared to PTX images acquired in swine, images from the phantom were similar in both PTX negative and positive mimicking scenarios. We then used a deep learning image classification algorithm, which we previously developed for shrapnel detection, to accurately predict the presence of PTX in swine images by only training on phantom image sets, highlighting the utility for a tissue phantom for AI applications.

Boice, Emily N. (ORCID:0000000171802842)↗

Alabama Industrial Assessment Center: Training Students and Sustaining Industry (Final Report)

The overarching goal of this project is to educate and train engineering students in energy management protocols. The centerpiece of the program is achieved by delivering direct energy-management assistance to manufacturers through industrial assessments and workshops. Additional facets are achieved through report writing, formal curricular coursework, and on-line/self-directed training. This program delivered significant workforce development in the area of energy management practices. Participants in the program received hands-on experience in real-world industrial energy usage and management practices. Additionally, the industrial manufacturers received benefit of collective energy management skills of the research team towards reducing energy consumption at their sites. These activities are beneficial to the public in two ways. First, the trained participants from the program will move out into the manufacturing sector and propagate the energy management expertise they gathered during the program. This is a long-term benefit that will pay back to society over many years. Second, the manufacturers that receive energy assistance under the program realize a direct and immediate increase in their energy efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Key insights from US Department of Energy Better Plants workforce development bootcamps (2022–2025)

This study examines the effectiveness of the US Department of Energy’s Better Plants Program Bootcamps, which are designed to enhance participants’ technical skills in improving energy efficiency and optimizing operations in manufacturing facilities. Through the analysis of survey data collected from 529 participants across 9 bootcamps, the research investigates the motivations, benefits, and demographic trends of attendees. The findings reveal that skill acquisition and improvement are primary drivers for participation, with key benefits including hands-on training on diagnostic equipment and software tools, networking opportunities, and access to technical resources. The analysis shows strong participation from sectors characterized by high energy consumption and employment, such as chemical and transportation equipment manufacturing. Over 50% of participants have job titles that include “EHS” or “Energy” showing their key roles in leading energy efficiency and energy management efforts in manufacturing. Furthermore, the analysis highlights the distribution of participants across managerial, engineering, and technical roles, revealing a higher representation of managers and engineers. This observation suggests a need for targeted outreach to engage technicians, equipment operators, maintenance staff, and floor workers to ensure comprehensive workforce development. The post-bootcamp survey showed that the participants highly valued the opportunities for peer learning and idea exchange, and the benefits they gained from them. This research contributes to the advancement of manufacturing education by demonstrating the efficacy of specialized training in addressing critical industry challenges and fostering a more competent and empowered workforce.

Energy efficiency↗

LSST Undergraduate Internships at Fermilab

The LSST Data Science for Undergraduate summer internship program focuses on data-driven astronomy for undergraduates at Fermilab’s Cosmic Physics Center. The internship activities focus on the development and implementation of data-driven investigatory techniques that will aid in LSST science, as well as prepare the undergraduates for future work in LSST. In particular, the internship activities include a number of opportunities for undergraduates to learn other skills critical for working on LSST --- data science research techniques, software development and engineering, science communication training.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗