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NASA NTRS1984

The interactive role of subsynoptic scale jet streak and planetary boundary layer processes in organizing an isolated convective complex

Surface analyses and numerical simulation sensitivity studies are compared in order to determine the role played by deep, well-mixed, and well-heated boundary layers in perturbing a weak jet streak in proximity to the development of an isolated but intense convective complex associated with the Grand Island, Nebraska tornado outbreak of June 3-4, 1980. A brief description of the case is first presented, emphasizing three-hourly surface analyses, radar, and satellite data. The results of numerical experiments comparing differences in the runs with and without diurnal surface sensible heating are discussed and related to observations. The dynamical processes responsible for these simulation differences are discussed, and the significance of these differences are considered in terms of their effect on the preconvective environment.

Kaplan, M. L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anthropogenic extremely low volatility organics (ELVOCs) Govern the Growth of Molecular Clusters over the Southern Great Plains during the Springtime

New particle formation (NPF) and growth govern cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations in many regions. The mechanisms governing the nucleation of molecular clusters vary substantially in different regions of the atmosphere. Additionally, the growth of these clusters from ~2 to 20 nm sizes is often governed by the availability of extremely low volatility organic vapours (ELVOCs). While the pathways to ELVOC formation from the oxidation of biogenic monoterpenes with ozone is better understood, the chemical and mechanistic pathways for ELVOC formation from oxidation of anthropogenic organics are not well understood. We integrate measurements and three-dimensional regional model simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model coupled to chemistry (WRF-Chem) to understand the processes governing new particle formation and growth and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation during the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory in Oklahoma, and contrast it with a site within the Bankhead National Forest (BNF), Alabama in Southeast USA, where 5-year long measurements will begin in 2024. Simulations show that nucleation rates are at least an order of magnitude higher at SGP compared to BNF during the springtime days (April 28 and May 14, 2016), largely due to lower H2SO4 concentrations at BNF, which are needed for nucleation. In addition, the larger CS at BNF (compared to SGP) increase the loss of molecular clusters by coagulation to pre-existing particles. Among the 8 different nucleation mechanisms in WRF-Chem, we find that the amine+H2SO4 nucleation mechanism dominates at the SGP site, while the pure organic ion induced nucleation mechanism dominates over BNF. Through various WRF-Chem sensitivity simulations, we find that anthropogenic ELVOCs are critical for explaining the growth of newly formed particles and the resulting number size distribution observed near the surface at the SGP site during the daytime. In addition, we show that treating organic particles as semisolid, with strong diffusion-limited uptake of organic vapours, brings model predictions into closer agreement with the observed evolution of particle size distribution. Simulations also predict that anthropogenic SOA, formed by the oxidation of aromatic volatile organic compounds (VOCs), is the dominant organic aerosol component at SGP, while biogenic SOA dominates particle composition at the BNF site in Southeast USA on these days.

Shrivastava, ManishKumar B.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Less Atmospheric Radiative Heating By Dust Due to the Synergy of Coarser Size and Aspherical Shape

Mineral dust aerosols cool and warm the atmosphere by scattering and absorbing solar (shortwave: SW) and thermal (longwave: LW) radiation. However, significant uncertainties remain in dust radiative effects, largely due to differences in the dust size distribution and spectral optical properties simulated in Earth system models. Dust models typically underestimate the coarse dust load (more than 2.5 µm in diameter) and assume a spherical shape, which leads to an overestimate of the fine dust load (less than 2.5 µm) after the dust emissions in the models are scaled to match observed dust aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (DAOD550). Here, we improve the simulated dust properties with data sets that leverage measurements of size-resolved dust concentration, asphericity factor, and refractive index in a coupled global chemical transport model with a radiative transfer module. After the adjustment of size-resolved dust concentration and spectral optical properties, the global and annual average of DAOD550 from the simulation increases from 0.023 to 0.029 and falls within the range of a semi-observationally based estimate (0.030 ± 0.005). The reduction of fine dust load after the adjustment leads to a reduction of the SW cooling at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). To improve agreement against a semi-observationally based estimate of the radiative effect efficiency at TOA, we find that a less absorptive SW dust refractive index is required for coarser aspherical dust. Thus, only a minor difference is estimated for the net global dust radiative effect at TOA (−0.08 vs. −0.00 W m−2 on a global scale). Conversely, our sensitivity simulations reveal that the surface warming is substantially enhanced near the strong dust source regions (less cooling to −0.23 from −0.60 W m−2 on a global scale). Thus, less atmospheric radiative heating is estimated near the major source regions (less heating to 0.15 from 0.59 W m−2 on a global scale), because of enhanced LW warming at the surface by the synergy of coarser size and aspherical shape.

simulated dust properties↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summertime ozone pollution in China affected by stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation

In recent years, the near-surface ozone (O 3 ) level has been rising fast in China, with increasing damage to human health and ecosystems. In this study, the impact of stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on interannual variations in summertime tropospheric O 3 over China is investigated based on GEOS-Chem model simulations and satellite retrievals. QBO has a significant positive correlation with near-surface O 3 concentrations over central China (92.5–112.5° E, 26–38° N) when the sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern tropical Pacific is warmer than normal, with a correlation coefficient of 0.53, but QBO has no significant effect on O 3 under the cold SST anomaly. Compared to the easterly phase of QBO, the near-surface O 3 concentrations have an increase of up to 3 ppb (5% relative to the average) over central China during its westerly phase under the warm SST anomaly. O 3 also increases above the surface and up to the upper troposphere, with a maximum increase of 2–3 ppb (3%–5%) in 850–500 hPa over central China when comparing westerly phase to easterly phase. Process-based analysis and sensitivity simulations suggest that the O 3 increase over central China is mainly attributed to the anomalous downward transport of O 3 during the westerly phase of QBO when a warm SST anomaly occurs in the eastern tropical Pacific, while the local chemical reactions and horizontal transport processes partly offset the O 3 increase. This work suggests a potentially important role of QBO and the related vertical transport process in affecting near-surface O 3 air quality, with an indication for O 3 pollution prediction and prevention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Process-oriented evaluation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature extremes in dynamical downscaling over North America

Quasi-stationary Rossby waves are a crucial component of the general circulation and play a significant role in regional water and energy cycles, as well as in extreme events. However, process-oriented evaluation for Rossby waves is rarely performed for dynamical downscaling simulations. To close this gap, we evaluate three classes of dynamical downscaling approaches, with a focus on quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature over North America during Northern Hemisphere summer. The three classes of models differ in the way large-scale forcing is provided: a limited-area model (LAM) constrained only by lateral boundary conditions, represented by RegCM4 from the North American branch of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX), a LAM with spectral nudging to maintain consistency in large-scale dynamics with the forcing data, represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation in NA-CORDEX, and a global variable-resolution model with smoothly varying grid spacings, represented by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.4, with the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) as its dynamical core (CAM-MPAS). With no constraints on the atmospheric dynamics, CAM-MPAS exhibits several mean biases in the upper-level circulations over the Pacific Coast region: a weaker subtropical jet, a northward-shifted mid-latitude jet, and an overestimated southerly flow. With the lateral boundary constraint alone, RegCM4 also exhibits weaker jets and overestimated southerly winds off the West Coast. Rossby ray theory reveals that those wind biases direct incoming Rossby waves northward. The erroneously routed Rossby waves distort the relationship between the accumulation of wave activity over the US West Coast and surface temperature anomalies over the Southern Great Plains, which emerges approximately 4 d after the convergence of wave-activity flux in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Furthermore, the response of heatwaves to the extreme wave activity flux is not reproduced by the two models, a serious drawback as a dynamical downscaling framework is expected to connect large-scale forcing to local-scale phenomena. The WRF model employing spectral nudging is largely free from the aforementioned problems. A pair of sensitivity simulations suggests that spectral nudging is the key to improving the dynamics of quasi-stationary Rossby waves and their impact on surface air temperature. Our results also demonstrate the effectiveness of Rossby wave diagnostics that allow for realistic background flows for assessing the credibility of dynamical downscaling over North America, where incoming Rossby waves propagate through complex circulation patterns before traveling across the continent.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2013

Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change in global mean tropospheric CO and NOx burdens (Delta CO/Delta NOx, approximately represents changes in OH sinks versus changes in OH sources) in the models, pointing to a need for better constraints on natural precursor emissions and on the chemical mechanisms in the current generation of chemistry-climate models. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH (3.5 +/- 2.2%) leads to a 4.3 +/- 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present-day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about four months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, we analysed attribution experiments performed by a subset of models relative to 2000 conditions with only one precursor at a time set to 1860 levels. We find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 +/- 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present-day anthropogenic NOx emission increases, and decreased by 17.3 +/-2.3%, 7.6 +/- 1.5%, and 3.1 +/- 3.0% due to methane burden, and anthropogenic CO, and NMVOC emissions increases, respectively.

nitrogen oxides↗

NASA NTRS1974

Computer simulation of the threshold sensitivity determinations

A computer simulation study was carried out to evaluate various methods for determining threshold stimulus levels for impact sensitivity tests. In addition, the influence of a number of variables (initial stimulus level, particular stimulus response curve, and increment size) on the apparent threshold values and on the corresponding population response levels was determined. Finally, a critical review of previous assumptions regarding the stimulus response curve for impact testing is presented in the light of the simulation results.

Gayle, J. B.↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Dynamics of Megafire Smoke Plumes in Climate Models: Why a Converged Solution Matters for Physical Interpretations

As the climate system warms, megafires have become more frequent with devastating effects. A byproduct of these events is the creation of smoke plumes that can rise into the stratosphere and spread across the globe where they reside for many months. To gain a deeper understanding of the plume dynamics, global climate simulations of a megafire were performed at a wide range of grid spacings from 2.0° down to 7 km, including a 7 km nonhydrostatic experiment. The analysis focuses on how the resolved dynamics affects the specification of the plume characteristics such as injection height and black carbon (BC) mass. Prior studies initialize the smoke plume at one or a few grid points and this is shown here to produce severely dissipative dynamics. In order to validate such simulations with observations, enhancements of the plume characteristics to offset the dissipation is necessary. Using a numerically converged simulation, sensitivity tests show that to approximate the observed stratospheric lifetime, a reduction in BC fraction by 50% is necessary for external mixtures. The vorticity dynamics of the plume is also analyzed with a Lagrangian budget to understand the mechanisms responsible for the evolution of a collocated anticyclonic vortex. The results can be distilled down into a simple conceptual model. As the plume rises, the air diverges at the top of the updraft where the largest concentrations of smoke are found. This divergence induces a dilution of the background cyclonic absolute vorticity producing an anticyclonic vortex. Vortex decay occurs from opposite arguments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Source sector and fuel contributions to ambient PM 2.5 and attributable mortality across multiple spatial scales

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is the world’s leading environmental health risk factor. Reducing the PM 2.5 disease burden requires specific strategies that target dominant sources across multiple spatial scales. We provide a contemporary and comprehensive evaluation of sector- and fuel-specific contributions to this disease burden across 21 regions, 204 countries, and 200 sub-national areas by integrating 24 global atmospheric chemistry-transport model sensitivity simulations, high-resolution satellite-derived PM 2.5 exposure estimates, and disease-specific concentration response relationships. Globally, 1.05 (95% Confidence Interval: 0.74–1.36) million deaths were avoidable in 2017 by eliminating fossil-fuel combustion (27.3% of the total PM 2.5 burden), with coal contributing to over half. Other dominant global sources included residential (0.74 [0.52–0.95] million deaths; 19.2%), industrial (0.45 [0.32–0.58] million deaths; 11.7%), and energy (0.39 [0.28–0.51] million deaths; 10.2%) sectors. Our results show that regions with large anthropogenic contributions generally had the highest attributable deaths, suggesting substantial health benefits from replacing traditional energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling and Analysis of a Polyphase Wireless Power Transfer System for EV Charging Applications

Extreme fast charging is an emerging technology targeting to significantly decrease charging times of electric vehicles to 10–20 minutes, similar to an interstate gas refueling practice. High-power wireless power transfer (WPT) systems with polyphase electromagnetic couplers can be an attractive solution for these applications due to the very high surface power density of polyphase coils with reduced ripple current characteristics on both the primary and secondary sides that result in more compact designs with reduced dc bus bar capacitor requirements. In addition, WPT systems offer automated charging process, which can be an enabling technology for connected and automated vehicles, with high-efficiency, convenience, safety, and flexibility. This study presents a matrix representation of a mathematical model for a three-phase WPT system with series-series connected three-phase resonant compensation networks. Nonzero interphase mutual inductances between the same side phase windings are considered for tuning to obtain a circuit model for parametric sensitivity. Simulation and experimental results presented for a 50-kW experimental prototype to demonstrate the operation of the polyphase WPT system.

Zeng, Rong↗

DOE OSTI2023

Diagnosing Near-Surface Model Errors with Candidate Physics Parameterization Schemes for the Multiphysics Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) Ensemble during Winter over the Northeastern United States and Southern Great Plains

Abstract During the winter of 2020/21 an ensemble of FV3-LAM forecasts was produced over the contiguous United States for the Winter Weather Experiment using five physics suites. These forecasts are evaluated with the goal of optimizing physics parameterizations within the future operational Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) in the Unified Forecast System (UFS) realm and for selecting suitable physics suites for a multiphysics RRFS ensemble. The five physics suites have different combinations of land surface models (LSMs), planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, and surface layer schemes, chosen from those used in current and possible future operational systems and likely to be supported in the operational UFS. Full-season evaluation reveals a persistent near-surface cold bias in the U.S. Northeast from one suite and a nighttime warm bias in the southern Great Plains in another suite, while other suites have smaller biases. A representative case is chosen to diagnose the cause for each of these biases using sensitivity simulations with different physics combinations or modified parameters and verified with additional mesonet observations. The cold bias in the Northeast is attributed to aspects of the Noah-MP LSM over snow cover, where Noah-MP simulates lower soil water content, and thus lower thermal conductivity than other LSMs, leading to less upward ground heat flux during nighttime and consequently lower surface temperature. The nighttime warm bias found in the southern Great Plains is attributed to overestimation of vertical mixing in the K -profile-based eddy-diffusivity mass-flux (K-EDMF) PBL scheme and insufficient land–atmospheric coupling from the GFS surface layer scheme over short vegetation. A few key parameters driving these systematic biases are identified.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Why Does E3SMv2 Have High Aerosol Sensitivity?

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model’s (E3SM) high aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) is evaluated against results from the Radiative-Forcing-Model-Intercomparison-Project (RFMIP). ERF is decomposed into aerosol susceptibility and aerosol optical depth change (Δτ). E3SM’s Δτ is found to be larger than that of any RFMIP model – particularly over the ocean - while its radiative response to anthropogenic aerosol change is unremarkable. Sensitivity simulations which reduce E3SM’s unrealistically large Δτ are effective at damping E3SM’s unusually strong ERF and improve agreement with the historical temperature record but have little impact on present-day climatology. These results suggest that reducing anthropogenic aerosol concentrations is an essential ingredient in any plan to fix E3SM’s high ERF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the Impact of Lightning NOx Emissions in CMAQ Using Lightning Flash Data from WWLLN over the Contiguous United States

Comparison of lightning flash data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) over the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the 2016–2018 period reveals temporally and spatially varying flash rates that would influence lightning NO x (LNO x ) production due to known detection efficiency differences especially during summer months over land (versus over ocean). However, the lightning flash density differences between the two networks show persistent seasonal patterns over geographical regions (e.g., land versus ocean). Since the NLDN data are considered to have higher accuracy (lightning detection with >95% efficiency), we developed scaling factors for the WWLLN flash data based on the ratios of WWLLN to NLDN flash data over time (months of year) and space. In this study, sensitivity simulations using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model are performed utilizing the original data sets (both NLDN and WWLLN) and the scaled WWLLN flash data for LNO x production over the CONUS. The model performance of using the different lightning flash datasets for ambient O 3 and NO x mixing ratios that are directly impacted by LNO x emissions and the wet and dry deposition of oxidized nitrogen species that are indirectly impacted by LNO x emissions is assessed based on comparisons with ground-based observations, vertical profile measurements, and satellite products. During summer months, the original WWLLN data produced less LNO x emissions (due to its lower lightning detection efficiency) compared to the NLDN data, which resulted in less improvement in model performance than the simulation using NLDN data as compared to the simulation without any LNO x emissions. However, the scaled WWLLN data produced LNO x estimates and model performance comparable with the NLDN data, suggesting that scaled WWLLN may be used as a substitute for the NLDN data to provide LNO x estimates in air quality models when the NLDN data are not available (e.g., due to prohibitive cost or lack of spatial coverage).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: AQMEII4 Activity 1: evaluation of wet and dry deposition schemes as an integral part of regional-scale air quality models

We present in this technical note the research protocol for phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4). This research initiative is divided into two activities, collectively having three goals: (i) to define the current state of the science with respect to representations of wet and especially dry deposition in regional models, (ii) to quantify the extent to which different dry deposition parameterizations influence retrospective air pollutant concentration and flux predictions, and (iii) to identify, through the use of a common set of detailed diagnostics, sensitivity simulations, model evaluation, and reduction of input uncertainty, the specific causes for the current range of these predictions. Activity 1 is dedicated to the diagnostic evaluation of wet and dry deposition processes in regional air quality models (described in this paper), and Activity 2 to the evaluation of dry deposition point models against ozone flux measurements at multiple towers with multiyear observations (to be described in future submissions as part of the special issue on AQMEII4). The scope of this paper is to present the scientific protocols for Activity 1, as well as to summarize the technical information associated with the different dry deposition approaches used by the participating research groups of AQMEII4. In addition to describing all common aspects and data used for this multi-model evaluation activity, most importantly, we present the strategy devised to allow a common process-level comparison of dry deposition obtained from models using sometimes very different dry deposition schemes. The strategy is based on adding detailed diagnostics to the algorithms used in the dry deposition modules of existing regional air quality models, in particular archiving diagnostics specific to land use–land cover (LULC) and creating standardized LULC categories to facilitate cross-comparison of LULC-specific dry deposition parameters and processes, as well as archiving effective conductance and effective flux as means for comparing the relative influence of different pathways towards the net or total dry deposition. This new approach, along with an analysis of precipitation and wet deposition fields, will provide an unprecedented process-oriented comparison of deposition in regional air quality models. Examples of how specific dry deposition schemes used in participating models have been reduced to the common set of comparable diagnostics defined for AQMEII4 are also presented.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Sensitivity of a mesoscale model to initial specification of relative humidity, liquid water and vertical motion

The influence of synoptic scale initial conditions on the accuracy of mesoscale precipitation modeling is investigated. Attention is focused on the relative importance of the water vapor, cloud water, rain water, and vertical motion, with the analysis carried out using the Limited Area Mesoscale Prediction System (LAMPS). The fully moist primitive equation model has 15 levels and a terrain-following sigma coordinate system. A K-theory approach was implemented to model the planetary boundary layer. A total of 15 sensitivity simulations were run to investigate the effects of the synoptic initial conditions of the four atmospheric variables. The absence of synoptic cloud and rain water amounts in the initialization caused a 2 hr delay in the onset of precipitation. The delay was increased if synoptic-scale vertical motion was used instead of mesoscale values. Both the delays and a choice of a smoothed moisture field resulted in underestimations of the total rainfall.

Kalb, M. W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

An Operational Computational Terminal Area PBL Prediction System

There are two fundamental goals of this research project which are listed here in terms of priority, i.e., a primary and secondary goal. The first and primary goal is to develop a prognostic system which could satisfy the operational weather prediction requirements of the meteorological subsystem within the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS), i.e., an operational computational Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS). The second goal is to perform indepth diagnostic analyses of the meteorological conditions during the special wake vortex deployments at Memphis and Dallas during August 95 and September 97, respectively. These two goals are interdependent because a thorough understanding of the atmospheric dynamical processes which produced the unique meteorology during the Memphis and Dallas deployments will help us design a prognostic system for the planetary boundary layer (PBL) which could be utilized to support the meteorological subsystem within AVOSS. Concerning the primary goal, TAPPS Stage 2 was tested on the Memphis data and is about to be tested on the Dallas case studies. Furthermore benchmark tests have been undertaken to select the appropriate platform to run TAPPS in real time in support of the DFW AVOSS system. In addition, a technique to improve the initial data over the region surrounding Dallas was also tested and modified for potential operational use in TAPPS. The secondary goal involved several sensitivity simulations and comparisons to Memphis observational data sets in an effort to diagnose what specific atmospheric phenomena where occurring which may have impacted the dynamics of atmospheric wake vortices.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗

NASA NTRS1999

Development of Response Surface Models for Rapid Analysis & Multidisciplinary Optimization of Launch Vehicle Design Concepts

Multdisciplinary design optimization (MDO) is an important step in the design and evaluation of launch vehicles, since it has a significant impact on performance and lifecycle cost. The objective in MDO is to search the design space to determine the values of design parameters that optimize the performance characteristics subject to system constraints. Vehicle Analysis Branch (VAB) at NASA Langley Research Center has computerized analysis tools in many of the disciplines required for the design and analysis of launch vehicles. Vehicle performance characteristics can be determined by the use of these computerized analysis tools. The next step is to optimize the system performance characteristics subject to multidisciplinary constraints. However, most of the complex sizing and performance evaluation codes used for launch vehicle design are stand-alone tools, operated by disciplinary experts. They are, in general, difficult to integrate and use directly for MDO. An alternative has been to utilize response surface methodology (RSM) to obtain polynomial models that approximate the functional relationships between performance characteristics and design variables. These approximation models, called response surface models, are then used to integrate the disciplines using mathematical programming methods for efficient system level design analysis, MDO and fast sensitivity simulations. A second-order response surface model of the form given has been commonly used in RSM since in many cases it can provide an adequate approximation especially if the region of interest is sufficiently limited.

Unal, Resit↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Regional Model Study of Synoptic Features Over West Africa

Synoptic weather features over West Africa were studied in simulations by the regional simulation model (RM) at the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies. These pioneering simulations represent the beginning of an effort to adapt regional models for weather and climate prediction over West Africa. The RM uses a cartesian grid with 50 km horizontal resolution and fifteen vertical levels. An ensemble of four simulations was forced with lateral boundary conditions from ECMWF global analyses for the period 8-22 August 1988. The simulated mid-tropospheric circulation includes the skillful development and movement of several African wave disturbances. Wavelet analysis of mid-tropospheric winds detected a dominant periodicity of about 4 days and a secondary periodicity of 5-8 days. Spatial distributions of RM precipitation and precipitation time series were validated against daily rain gauge measurements and ISCCP satellite infrared cloud imagery. The time-space distribution of simulated precipitation was made more realistic by combining the ECMWR initial conditions with a 24-hr spin-up of the moisture field and also by damping high frequency gravity waves by dynamic initialization. Model precipitation "forecasts" over the Central Sahel were correlated with observations for about three days, but reinitializing with observed data on day 5 resulted in a dramatic improvement in the precipitation validation over the remaining 9 days. Results imply that information via the lateral boundary conditions is not always sufficient to minimize departures between simulated and actual precipitation patterns for more than several days. In addition, there was some evidence that the new initialization may increase the simulations' sensitivity to the quality of lateral boundary conditions.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗