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At least 91 records · Page 5

Biosphere Futures: a database of social-ecological scenarios

T. Biosphere Futures (https://biospherefutures.net/) is a new online database to collect and discover scenario studies from across the world, with a specific focus on scenarios that explicitly incorporate interdependencies between humans and their supporting ecosystems. It provides access to a globally diverse collection of case studies that includes most ecosystems and regions, enabling exploration of the multifaceted ways in which the future might unfold. Together, the case studies illuminate the diversity and plurality of people’s expectations and aspirations for the future. The objective of Biosphere Futures is to promote the use of scenarios for sustainable development of the biosphere and to foster a community of practice around social-ecological scenarios. We do so by facilitating the assessment, synthesis, and comparative analysis of scenario case studies, pointing to relevant resources, and by helping practitioners and researchers to disseminate and showcase their own work. This article begins by outlining the rationale behind the creation of the database, followed by an introduction to its functionality and the criteria employed for selecting case studies. Subsequently, we present a synthesis of the first 100 case studies included in the scenarios database, highlighting emerging patterns and identifying potential avenues for further research. Finally, given that broader utilization and contributions to the database will enhance the achievement of Biosphere Futures’ objectives, we invite the creators of social-ecological scenarios to contribute additional case studies. By expanding the database’s breadth and depth, we can collectively foster a more nuanced understanding of the possible trajectories of our biosphere and enable better decision making for sustainable development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical Arc Segmentation Algorithm for a Radio Conference-NASARC (version 4.0) technical manual

The information contained in the NASARC (Version 4.0) Technical Manual and NASARC (Version 4.0) User's Manual relates to the Numerical Arc Segmentation Algorithm for a Radio Conference (NASARC) software development through November 1, 1988. The Technical Manual describes the NASARC concept and the algorithms used to implement the concept. The User's Manual provides information on computer system considerations, installation instructions, description of input files, and program operation instructions. Significant revisions were incorporated in the Version 4.0 software over prior versions. These revisions have further enhanced the modeling capabilities of the NASARC procedure and provide improved arrangements of predetermined arcs within the geostationary orbits. Array dimensions within the software were structured to fit within the currently available 12 megabyte memory capacity of the International Frequency Registration Board (IFRB) computer facility. A piecewise approach to predetermined arc generation in NASARC (Version 4.0) allows worldwide planning problem scenarios to be accommodated within computer run time and memory constraints with enhanced likelihood and ease of solution.

Whyte, Wayne A., Jr.↗

Numerical Arc Segmentation Algorithm for a Radio Conference (NASARC), version 4.0: User's manual

The information in the NASARC (Version 4.0) Technical Manual (NASA-TM-101453) and NASARC (Version 4.0) User's Manual (NASA-TM-101454) relates to the state of Numerical Arc Segmentation Algorithm for a Radio Conference (NASARC) software development through November 1, 1988. The Technical Manual describes the NASARC concept and the algorithms used to implement the concept. The User's Manual provides information on computer system considerations, installation instructions, description of input files, and program operation instructions. Significant revisions were incorporated in the Version 4.0 software over prior versions. These revisions have further enhanced the modeling capabilities of the NASARC procedure and provide improved arrangements of predetermined arcs within the geostationary orbit. Array dimensions within the software were structured to fit within the currently available 12-megabyte memory capacity of the International Frequency Registration Board (IFRB) computer facility. A piecewise approach to predetermined arc generation in NASARC (Version 4.) allows worldwide planning problem scenarios to be accommodated within computer run time and memory constraints with enhanced likelihood and ease of solution.

Whyte, Wayne A., Jr.↗

The Systems Autonomy Demonstration Project - Catalyst for Space Station advanced automation

The Systems Autonomy Demonstration Project (SADP) was initiated by NASA to address the advanced automation needs for the Space Station program. The application of advanced automation to the Space Station's operations management system (OMS) is discussed. The SADP's future goals and objectives are discussed with respect to OMS functional requirements, design, and desired evolutionary capabilities. Major technical challenges facing the designers, developers, and users of the OMS are identified in order to guide the definition of objectives, plans, and scenarios for future SADP demonstrations, and to focus the efforts on the supporting research.

Healey, Kathleen J.↗

Decision Support Systems for Research and Management in Advanced Life Support

Decision support systems have been implemented in many applications including strategic planning for battlefield scenarios, corporate decision making for business planning, production planning and control systems, and recommendation generators like those on Amazon.com(Registered TradeMark). Such tools are reviewed for developing a similar tool for NASA's ALS Program. DSS are considered concurrently with the development of the OPIS system, a database designed for chronicling of research and development in ALS. By utilizing the OPIS database, it is anticipated that decision support can be provided to increase the quality of decisions by ALS managers and researchers.

Rodriquez, Luis F.↗

Requirements, Resource Planning and Management for Decrewing/Recrewing Scenarios of the International Space Station

Following the failure of 44P on launch in August 2011, and the subsequent grounding of all Russian Soyuz rocket based launches, the ISS ground teams engaged in an effort to determine how long the ISS could remain crewed, what would be required to safely configure the ISS for decrewing, and what would be required to recrew the ISS upon resumption of Soyuz rocket launches if decrewing became necessary. This White Paper was written to capture the processes and lessons learned from real-time time events and to provide a reference and training document for ISS Program teams in the event decrewing of the ISS is needed. Through coordination meetings and assessments, teams identified six decrewing priorities for ground and crew operations. These priorities were integrated along with preflight priorities through the Increment replanning process. Additionally, the teams reviewed, updated, and implemented changes to the governing documentation for the configuration of the ISS for a contingency decrewing event. Steps were taken to identify critical items for disposal prior to decrewing, as well as identifying the required items to be strategically staged or flown with the astronauts and cosmonauts who would eventually recrew the ISS. After the successful launches and dockings of both 45P and 28S, the decrewing team transitioned to finalizing and publishing the documentation for standardizing the decrewing flight rules. With the continued launching of crews and cargo to the ISS, utilization and science is again a high priority, with the Increment pairs 29 and 30, and 31 and 32 reaching the milestone of at least 35 hours per week average utilization.

Bach, David A.↗

Relay Support for the Mars Science Laboratory and the Coming Decade of Mars Relay Network Evolution

In the past decade, an evolving network of Mars relay orbiters has provided telecommunication relay services to the Mars Exploration Rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, and to the Mars Phoenix Lander, enabling high-bandwidth, energy-efficient data transfer and greatly increasing the volume of science data that can be returned from the Martian surface, compared to conventional direct-to-Earth links. The current relay network, consisting of NASA's Odyssey and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter and augmented by ESA's Mars Express Orbiter, stands ready to support the Mars Science Laboratory, scheduled to arrive at Mars on Aug 6, 2012, with new capabilities enabled by the Electra and Electra-Lite transceivers carried by MRO and MSL, respectively. The MAVEN orbiter, planned for launch in 2013, and the ExoMars/Trace Gas Orbiter, planned for launch in 2016, will replenish the on-orbit relay network as the current orbiter approach their end of life. Currently planned support scenarios for this future relay network include an ESA EDL Demonstrator Module deployed by the 2016 ExoMars/TGO orbiter, and the 2018 NASA/ESA Joint Rover, representing the first step in a multimission Mars Sample Return campaign.

MAVEN↗

Relay Telecommunications for the Coming Decade of Mars Exploration

Over the past decade, an evolving network of relay-equipped orbiters has advanced our capabilities for Mars exploration. NASA's Mars Global Surveyor, 2001 Mars Odyssey, and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO), as well as ESA's Mars Express Orbiter, have provided telecommunications relay services to the 2003 Mars Exploration Rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, and to the 2007 Phoenix Lander. Based on these successes, a roadmap for continued Mars relay services is in place for the coming decade. MRO and Odyssey will provide key relay support to the 2011 Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission, including capture of critical event telemetry during entry, descent, and landing, as well as support for command and telemetry during surface operations, utilizing new capabilities of the Electra relay payload on MRO and the Electra-Lite payload on MSL to allow significant increase in data return relative to earlier missions. Over the remainder of the decade a number of additional orbiter and lander missions are planned, representing new orbital relay service providers and new landed relay users. In this paper we will outline this Mars relay roadmap, quantifying relay performance over time, illustrating planned support scenarios, and identifying key challenges and technology infusion opportunities.

Edwards, C.↗

Overview and Status of the Laser Communication Relay Demonstration

NASA is presently developing first all optical high data rate satellite relay system, LCRD. To be flown on commercial geosynchronous satellite, it will communicate at DPSK and PPM modulation formats up to 1.244 Gbps. LCRD flight payload is being developed by NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. The two ground stations, one on Table Mountain in CA, developed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and another on Hawaiian island will enable bi-directional relay operation and ground sites diversity experiments. In this paper we will report on the current state of LCRD system development, planned operational scenarios and expected system performance.

free space optical communication↗

Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) Remote Teleoperation Studies Under Four Lunar Communication Latencies

Remotely operating a lunar rover from Earth while subject to an Earth-Moon time delay of multiple seconds could result in a dangerous state where the roving vehicle is either damaged or lost, thereby potentially compromising an entire mission or series of missions. Providing the right capabilities to the remote operator to manage inherent communication latencies will be important for remote driving to be successful. NASA conducted two studies to investigate the average speed and number of kilometers per day that an operator on Earth could teleoperate a notional Artemis unpressurized rover with minimal remote operator capabilities under 0- and 4-second communication delays (April 2023 study) and 6- and 8-second delays (August 2023 study). A primary goal of these studies was to understand if an Artemis Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) could cover 6 kilometers (km) in 24 hours when operated remotely. During the April 2023 evaluation, eight test operators used an in-house simulation of the lunar surface South Pole to teleoperate a NASA government reference LTV. Each operator received approximately 30 minutes of remote driving familiarization/training prior to their test run. Operators viewed the surrounding terrain via a single, rover mast-mounted, high-resolution camera with pan/tilt/zoom capabilities; continuous communication was provided throughout all testing. In the August 2023 evaluation, remote operators received approximately 3 hours of familiarization training in each latency, and the simulation environment provided remote operators with an operator-selected rate limiter to enable finer sensitivity in the hand controller and a predictive circle function to better assist operators with predicting the path the vehicle could take. All test operators were able to successfully navigate and drive through six different types of terrain and five planned traverse scenarios using natural lighting under all communication delays. Results for average speeds for each communication delay, computed by averaging the data from all test conditions for that latency and all operators, are shown in the table below. The average speed data was then used to derive the total time needed to cover 6 km, 8 km, and 20 km (distances relevant to LTV-SYS071 and -029 requirements). Remote operators drove slower and used the brake more frequently when subject to a communication latency as opposed to no communication latency. Subjective workload assessments revealed that while operating in a latency the overall workload significantly increased when compared to a 0-s delay with mental demand, frustration, and performance being the primary contributing factors. Driving strategies in the 0-s delay did not vary significantly among subjects; however, in the 4-s delay condition, three different driving strategies were identified. In the 6-s and 8-s latency conditions the operator’s use of the cruise control to maintain speed was more apparent. Additionally, over the course of the August study, the operator took advantage of the predictive circle indicator on the navigation display and over 95% of the operator’s navigation used the mast camera 180-degree panning function for ground truthing in terms of boulders and craters. Operators started to define more specific parameters in driving strategies for general operations. This consisted of setting the vehicle into a low-speed cruise mode of approximately 11.5 kph and noticing driving performance of the vehicle seemed to be much harder at slower speeds 0.4–0.8 kph; however, the vehicle was more responsive at speeds of 2.9–3.6 kph. Regardless of communication delay, operators used both the horizontal translation rails and the vehicle fenders as guides to predict a path for the vehicle through heavily concentrated terrain features. Test operators acknowledged that the teleoperations training for this study was substantially less than what an actual LTV remote operator will ultimately receive. They estimated a minimum of 20 to 100 hours spread across multiple days and weeks (e.g., strategies included immersion training over a 3-day period, to a short 8-week starter program) would be needed to get an operator ~ 60% proficient (i.e., able to complete a subset of remote driving tasks), to a yearlong program for full proficiency in remote driving tasks under all terrain types and natural lighting conditions. Remotely operating a vehicle on another planetary body while subject to communication latency is a complex task. Speed, distance covered, time spent driving, time spent navigating, brake usage and rock contacts are all affected by operator workload, driving strategies, workstation ergonomics and training. These studies provided a “first-look” answer to a potential system requirement (namely if a remote operator could cover a given distance in a given amount of time); however, considerable general knowledge was gained to begin to understand what it will take to make a successful lunar rover teleoperator.

LTV↗

Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) Remote Teleoperation Studies Under Four Lunar Communication Latencies

Remotely operating a lunar rover from Earth while subject to an Earth-Moon time delay of multiple seconds could result in a dangerous state where the roving vehicle is either damaged or lost, thereby potentially compromising an entire mission or series of missions. Providing the right capabilities to the remote operator to manage inherent communication latencies will be important for remote driving to be successful. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) conducted two studies to investigate the average speed and number of kilometers per day that an operator on Earth could teleoperate a notional Artemis unpressurized rover with minimal remote operator capabilities under 0- and 4-second communication delays (April 2023 study) and 6- and 8-second delays (August 2023 study). A primary goal of these studies was to understand if an Artemis Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) could cover 6 kilometers (km) in 24 hours when operated remotely. During the April 2023 evaluation, eight test operators used an in-house simulation of the lunar surface South Pole to teleoperate a NASA government reference LTV. Each operator received approximately 30 minutes of remote driving familiarization/training prior to their test run. Operators viewed the surrounding terrain via a single, rover mast-mounted, high-resolution camera with pan/tilt/zoom capabilities; continuous communication was provided throughout all testing. In the August 2023 evaluation, remote operators received approximately 3 hours of familiarization training in each latency, and the simulation environment provided remote operators with an operator-selected rate limiter to enable finer sensitivity in the hand controller and a predictive circle function to better assist operators with predicting the path the vehicle could take. All test operators were able to successfully navigate and drive through six different types of terrain and five planned traverse scenarios using natural lighting under all communication delays. Results for average speeds for each communication delay, computed by averaging the data from all test conditions for that latency and all operators, are shown in the table below. The average speed data was then used to derive the total time needed to cover 6 km, 8 km, and 20 km. Remote operators drove slower and used the brake more frequently when subject to a communication latency as opposed to no communication latency. Subjective workload assessments revealed that while operating in a latency the overall workload significantly increased when compared to a 0-s delay with mental demand, frustration, and performance being the primary contributing factors. Driving strategies in the 0-s delay did not vary significantly among subjects; however, in the 4-s delay condition, three different driving strategies were identified. In the 6-s and 8-s latency conditions the operator’s use of the cruise control to maintain speed was more apparent. Additionally, over the course of the August study, the operator took advantage of the predictive circle indicator on the navigation display and over 95% of the operator’s navigation used the mast camera 180-degree panning function for ground truthing in terms of boulders and craters. Operators started to define more specific parameters in driving strategies for general operations. This consisted of setting the vehicle into a low-speed cruise mode of approximately 1–1.5 kph and noticing driving performance of the vehicle seemed to be much harder at slower speeds 0.4–0.8 kph; however, the vehicle was more responsive at speeds of 2.9–3.6 kph. Regardless of communication delay, operators used both the horizontal translation rails and the vehicle fenders as guides to predict a path for the vehicle through heavily concentrated terrain features. Test operators acknowledged that the teleoperations training for this study was substantially less than what an actual LTV remote operator will ultimately receive. They estimated a minimum of 20 to 100 hours spread across multiple days and weeks (e.g., strategies included immersion training over a 3-day period, to a short 8-week starter program) would be needed to get an operator ~ 60% proficient (i.e., able to complete a subset of remote driving tasks), to a yearlong program for full proficiency in remote driving tasks under all terrain types and natural lighting conditions. Remotely operating a vehicle on another planetary body while subject to communication latency is a complex task. Speed, distance covered, time spent driving, time spent navigating, brake usage and rock contacts are all affected by operator workload, driving strategies, workstation ergonomics and training. These studies provided a “firstlook” answer to a potential system requirement (namely if a remote operator could cover a given distance in a given amount of time); however, considerable general knowledge was gained to begin to understand what it will take to make a successful lunar rover teleoperator.

LTV↗

Workshop on Establishing and Operating a National Nuclear Security Support Centre Hypothetical Scenario: “Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre Strategy Implementation Plan”

[This is part of a hypothetical scenario-based exercise for workshop participants, based on the fictitious country "Centralia."] In prior years, as a part of efforts to strengthen and better sustain nuclear security within the State, Centralia requested through the Integrated Nuclear Security Support Plan (INSSP) framework that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) conduct an expert mission on establishing and operating a national nuclear security support centre (NSSC). After the IAEA conducted the NSSC expert mission, members of the Centralia Committee on Nuclear Security (CNS) agreed to initiate the feasibility determination phase of establishing an NSSC, in line with the systematic process recommended by the IAEA. Centralia Nuclear Regulatory Authority (CNRA), as the designated lead organization for coordinating the feasibility determination process, prepared a Feasibility Report in collaboration with members of the CNS and based on input gathered among relevant national stakeholders. The report was presented to the National Security Advisor (NSA), who reviewed and approved the proposal for Centralia to proceed with establishing an NSSC. After Centralia moved into the planning phase for the Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre (CNSSC), per REF, the primary stakeholders of the centre jointly developed this strategy implementation plan, which provides an outline of the organizational structure, needs analysis, programme objectives, financial and project management, risk management, and other key aspects of the centre. This document will be reviewed and updated as necessary on a semi-annual basis during the project implementation period of establishing CNSSC.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Spatiotemporal Super-Resolution with Generative Machine Learning for Creating Renewable Energy Resource Data Under Climate Change Scenarios

As we plan for a future with higher penetrations of renewables and increasing electrification, it becomes more important to understand how the electricity grid will operate under a variety of weather events. We must also consider that the weather our future grid will experience will be different and possibly more extreme than the historical weather that we have extensive data for. We can use data from global climate models (GCMs) to help understand how our climate may change over the next several decades, but there is often a significant gap between the low-resolution GCM data and the high-resolution weather data required to study power systems under specific weather events. Therefore, our objective in this work is to develop tools that can bridge this gap by using low-resolution GCM data to create realistic high-resolution weather datasets that can be used to study renewable energy generation and electricity demand. To accomplish this objective, we have developed a set of generative machine learning models that can rapidly downscale GCM daily average output data at an approximate grid resolution of 100km to hourly data at an approximate 4 km grid resolution. The models can be used to create high resolution data from nearly any GCM included in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 5 or 6. Our methods include all datasets regularly used to study the integration of wind and solar power plants as well as changes in electricity demand due to heating and cooling loads. These models and datasets enable power systems modelers to study climate change-influenced weather events and their impact on the grid. We have downscaled and validated wind, solar, temperature, and humidity data with very promising results. The generative machine learning methods are computationally efficient and produce data that has similar statistical characteristics to current state-of-the-art historical datasets. We have trained initial generative models and produced an initial dataset collectively referred to as Sup3rCC: Super-Resolved Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts. The data covers a (mostly) historical period from 2015-2025 and a future period from 2050-2059. We have also taken hypothetical high-electrification load data and scaled the heating and cooling loads with respect to the 2050-2059 high-resolution Sup3rCC meteorology. The results show how future levels of renewable energy generation and electrified load may be impacted by climate change, setting the stage for capacity expansion models to consider a dynamic climate through model years.

climate change↗

Planning for Crew Exercise for Deep Space Mission Scenarios

Exercise which is necessary for maintaining crew health on-orbit and preparing the crew for return to 1G can be challenging to incorporate into spaceflight vehicles. Deep space missions will require further understanding of the physiological response to microgravity, understanding appropriate mitigations, and designing the exercise systems to effectively provide mitigations, and integrating effectively into vehicle design with a focus to support planned mission scenarios. Recognizing and addressing the constraints and challenges can facilitate improved vehicle design and exercise system incorporation.

Moore, E. Cherice↗

Cassini's Grand Finale: A Mission Planning Retrospective

On September 15, 2017, Cassini plunged deep into Saturn, down to where the atmosphere was sufficiently dense to destroy the spacecraft, making it part of Saturn forever. In the five months leading up to its destruction, Cassini flew between Saturn and its rings 22 times, collecting data from the never before-explored region of the Kronian system. These orbits, the Grand Finale of Cassini, were the culmination of years of planning by the Cassini flight team. This paper looks back upon the mission planning effort in particular, comparing the baseline operational scenarios and contingency plans to the as flown Grand Finale. The bulk of the Grand Finale mission planning effort was focused on the environmental hazards present in the region between Saturn and its rings: the dust and the atmosphere. Dust hazard and atmospheric transit contingency plans were in place to help ensure spacecraft health and maximize science data return. The dust hazard plan gave the operations team the option to turn the spacecraft to a safe attitude during ring-plane crossings had the dust environment proved more threatening than anticipated. The atmospheric transit plan would have made use of an orbital trim maneuver in order to raise or lower periapsis depending on the density of the atmosphere. The proximal environment did have its surprises, though they were good surprises. The dust was significantly less hazardous than predicted. So much so that elements of the contingency plan were leveraged in order to remove a dust hazard protection from the baseline plan, rather than add one to it. While the atmosphere was substantially denser than predicted, it was not dense enough to warrant a periapsis-raise maneuver and actually meant that better in-situ data was gathered. Ultimately, from a mission planning perspective, the Grand Finale went better than expected.

Sturm II, Erick J.↗

NASA telerobot testbed development and core technology demonstration

In 1985, NASA initiated a major program of technology development and demonstration for robotics applications to space servicing, assembly, repair, and remote exploration. A ground-based telerobot testbed at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has been the focal point within this program. Designed to prove technology concepts for supervised automation of increasingly unstructured and complex tasks, the testbed has reached an initial stage of integration. Several significant testbed experiments have been performed, including visual tracking and grapple of a satellite, dual-arm spatial coordination and manipulator control, force-reflecting teleoperations, and simulated task planning for a satellite servicing scenario. The current NASA plans for continuing testbed development and demonstration are also described.

Schenker, Paul S.↗

MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Horsham, Gary A. P.↗

MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Horsham, Gary A. P.↗