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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

LOCOMOTIVES - Comprehensive Impact and Cost Assessment Framework of Carbon Lowering Approaches for the US Rail Freight System

The goal of this project is to develop a tool to aid railroads and other stakeholders assess and approach the decarbonization of freight rail operations by identifying new, viable low-carbon energy storage and conversion systems for future locomotive systems and how they should be deployed on the existing US freight rail network. In the first quarter, the project focused on collecting data, establishing a simulation workflow, and engaging industry through the creation of the Industry Advisory Board (IAB). In the second quarter, the project focused on selecting fuel pathways and powertrain technologies, setting performance targets, conducting a techno-economic analyses, and developing the simulation framework that would serve as the backbone of the future toolhead. The third quarter involved developing an industry-oriented interactive dashboard powered by a five-step sequential framework, as well as holding industry advisory board meetings as per the initial technology-to-market plan. In the remaining project quarters, the NUFRIEND dashboard were fine-tuned with the help of IAB member feedback and in-depth scenario analyses were conducted to support the techno-economic analysis of energy sources. Additionally, dashboard documentation, project insights, and open-source code on GitHub were prepared and released. Throughout the project, the team completed testing and analysis of all model components, integrated all initial test scenarios, and conducted stakeholder engagement. Lower-carbon drop-in fuels can be deployed as admixtures and are considered uniform across the network at a desired penetration rate, while hydrogen and battery-electric technology deployment poses a more complex problem as they require significant investments to be made in the siting of refueling/charging facilities and the replacement of locomotive fleets. Thus, strategies for locating and sizing refueling/charging facilities on a railroad’s network to meet their energy demands were developed to inform deployment decisions. To address this challenge, the Northwestern University Freight Rail Infrastructure & Energy Network Decarbonization (NUFRIEND) framework presents a five-step sequential framework to select O-D paths, locate facilities, reroute flows, size facilities, and evaluate the deployment for alternative energy sources that require locomotive powertrains to be converted and new refueling infrastructure to be deployed. The NUFRIEND Framework is an industry-oriented tool for simulating the deployment of new energy technologies across the US freight rail network. The framework provides a comprehensive network-level optimization and scenario simulation tool for decarbonizing the freight rail sector, addressing the uncertainties surrounding technological developments by supporting sensitivity analyses for different operational and technological parameters through a transparent and flexible input module. It offers practical alternatives to diesel locomotives and can be applied for any railroad considering the specific network structure and freight demand, outputting evaluation metrics for the associated emissions and costs relative to diesel operations. A number of relevant simulation scenarios were run and analyzed for key insights on the value of different alternative technologies for freight rail decarbonization. The project developments and findings have been presented at numerous conferences and events.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2006

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of vertical stability for negative triangularity pilot plants

Abstract Negative triangularity (NT) tokamak configurations may be more susceptible to magneto-hydrodynamic instability, posing challenges for recent reactor designs centered around their favorable properties, such as improved confinement and operation free of edge-localized modes. In this work, we assess the vertical stability of plasmas with NT shaping and develop potential reactor solutions. When coupled with a conformal wall, NT equilibria are confirmed to be less vertically stable than equivalent positive triangularity (PT) configurations. Unlike PT, their vertical stability is degraded at higher poloidal beta. Furthermore, improvements in vertical stability at low aspect ratio do not translate to the NT geometry. NT equilibria are stabilized in PT vacuum vessels due to the increased proximity of the plasma and the wall on the outboard side, but this scenario is found to be undesirable due to reduced vertical gaps which give less spatial margin for control recovery. Instead, we demonstrate that informed positioning of passively conducting plates can lead to improved vertical stability in NT configurations on par with stability metrics expected in PT scenarios. An optimal setup for passive plates in highly elongated NT devices is presented, where plates on the outboard side of the device reduce vertical instability growth rates to 16% of their baseline value. For lower target elongations, integration of passive stabilizers with divertor concepts can lead to significant improvements in vertical stability. Plates on the inboard side of the device are also uniquely enabled in NT geometries, providing opportunity for spatial separation of vertical stability coils and passive stabilizers.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX-U using neural networks

A new model for prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX and NSTX-U has been developed using neural networks. The model has been trained and tested on measured profiles from experimental discharges during the first operational campaign of NSTX-U. By projecting profiles onto empirically derived basis functions, the model is able to efficiently and accurately reproduce profile shapes. In order to project the performance of the model to upcoming NSTX-U operations, a large database of profiles from the operation of NSTX is used to test performance as a function of available data. The rapid execution time of the model is well suited to the planned applications, including optimization during scenario development activities, and real-time plasma control. Finally, a potential application of the model to real-time profile estimation is demonstrated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation of alpha-particles in recent D–T experiments on JET

The fusion reaction between deuterium and tritium, D(T,n) 4 He is the main source of energy in future thermonuclear reactors. Alpha-particles ( 4 He-ions) born with an average energy of 3.5 MeV transferring energy to the thermal plasma during their slowing down, should provide the self-sustained D–T plasma burn. The adequate confinement of α-particles is essential to provide efficient heating of the bulk plasma and steady burning of a reactor plasma. That is why the fusion-born α-particle studies have been a priority task in the second D–T experiments (DTE2) on the Joint European Torus (JET) to understand the main mechanisms of their slowing down, redistribution and losses and to develop optimal plasma scenarios. JET with Be-wall and W-divertor, enhanced auxiliary heating systems and improved energetic-particle diagnostic capabilities, producing significant population of α-particles, provided the possibility for comprehensive studying of the α-particle behaviour. Selected results of the confined and lost α-particle measurements, evidence of α-particle self-heating and assessments of the fusion performance are presented in this paper giving an opportunity for further modelling and extrapolation to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor and burning plasma reactors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical Sketching for Enhanced Communication Efficiency in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) has revolutionized distributed machine learning by enabling collaborative model training without sharing local data. However, communication efficiency and privacy guarantees remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic sketching mechanism in FL, optimizing the trade-off between communication efficiency and model accuracy. By dynamically selecting the sketch matrix size, our approach adapts to the evolving characteristics of the data and the model, ensuring optimal performance across diverse scenarios. We leverage Bayesian optimization to systematically tune the sketch parameters, achieving an effective balance between resource efficiency and model performance. Experimental results on the MNIST dataset using a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture validate the proposed method's efficiency and scalability. Our dynamic sketching approach significantly outperforms fixed-size sketching techniques, achieving higher compression ratios (up to 62x) and providing better privacy guarantees while maintaining high model accuracy. These findings highlight the robustness and versatility of our approach and make it a valuable solution for privacy-preserving, communication-efficient federated learning.

Afrose, Sharmin [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Digital Twin Framework for Liquid-cooled Supercomputers as Demonstrated at Exascale

We present ExaDigiT, an open-source framework for developing comprehensive digital twins of liquid-cooled supercomputers. It integrates three main modules: (1) a resource allocator and power simulator, (2) a transient thermo-fluidic cooling model, and (3) an augmented reality model of the supercomputer and central energy plant. The framework enables the study of "what-if" scenarios, system optimizations, and virtual prototyping of future systems. Using Frontier as a case study, we demonstrate the framework's capabilities by replaying six months of system telemetry for systematic verification and validation. Such a comprehensive analysis of a liquid-cooled exascale supercomputer is the first of its kind. ExaDigiT elucidates complex transient cooling system dynamics, runs synthetic or real workloads, and predicts energy losses due to rectification and voltage conversion. Throughout our paper, we present lessons learned to benefit HPC practitioners developing similar digital twins. We envision the digital twin will be a key enabler for sustainable, energy-efficient supercomputing.

Brewer, Wes↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural-Network-Enhanced COTSIM: Advancing Predictive Capabilities for Fast DIII-D Simulations

Sustaining fusion reactions in tokamaks requires heating plasma to thermonuclear temperatures while maintaining confinement and stability. Neutral beam injection (NBI) provides heating, current drive, torque, and fueling, while electron cyclotron (EC) waves are widely used for heating and current drive; together, these actuators shape the plasma current, temperature, and density profiles. The control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM), a predictive, control-oriented code, has been enhanced with neural-network surrogates for transport and sources. Turbulent transport is predicted by MMMnet—a neural-network version of the updated multimode model (MMM 9.0.10)—with significantly reduced computation time relative to MMM; neoclassical transport follows the Chang–Hinton model. NUBEAMnet, a surrogate of the Monte Carlo NUBEAM module, predicts beam-driven heating, current, and torque. EC heating and current drive use a control-oriented, empirically scaled source model; plasma resistivity follows the Spitzer formulation; bootstrap current uses the Sauter model. Equilibrium is computed using both prescribed and fixed-boundary solvers (FBSs), and the pedestal structure is modeled with an empirical pedestal model. For a representative DIII-D discharge, COTSIM predicts electron and ion temperature and safety-factor profiles in close agreement with TRANSP predictive and interpretive simulations while extending predictions through the pedestal region to the plasma edge (versus 80% of the minor radius in TRANSP). Furthermore, the equivalent COTSIM simulation runs in under 3 min compared to about 2 h for TRANSP, enabling rapid scenario planning, optimization of tokamak operation, and between-pulse control design.

Control-oriented tokamak simulator (COTSIM)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Future Circular Collider Feasibility Study Report

Volume 3 of the FCC Feasibility Report presents studies related to civil engineering, the development of a project implementation scenario, and environmental and sustainability aspects. The report details the iterative improvements made to the civil engineering concepts since 2018, taking into account subsurface conditions, accelerator and experiment requirements, and territorial considerations. It outlines a technically feasible and economically viable civil engineering configuration that serves as the baseline for detailed subsurface investigations, construction design, cost estimation, and project implementation planning. Additionally, the report highlights ongoing subsurface investigations in key areas to support the development of an improved 3D subsurface model of the region. The report describes the development of the project scenario based on the ‘avoid-reduce-compensate’ iterative optimisation approach. The reference scenario balances optimal physics performance with territorial compatibility, implementation risks, and costs. Environmental field investigations covering almost 600 hectares of terrain—including numerous urban, economic, social, and technical aspects—confirmed the project’s technical feasibility and contributed to the preparation of essential input documents for the formal project authorisation phase. The summary also highlights the initiation of public dialogue as part of the authorisation process. The results of a comprehensive socio-economic impact assessment, which included significant environmental effects, are presented. Even under the most conservative and stringent conditions, a positive benefit-cost ratio for the FCC-ee is obtained. Finally, the report provides a summary of the studies conducted to document the current state of the environment.

Benedikt, M. [European Organization for Nuclear Re↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX-U using neural networks

A new model for prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX and NSTX-U has been developed using neural networks. The model has been trained and tested on measured profiles from experimental discharges during the first operational campaign of NSTX-U. By projecting profiles onto empirically derived basis functions, the model is able to efficiently and accurately reproduce profile shapes. In order to project the performance of the model to upcoming NSTX-U operations, a large database of profiles from the operation of NSTX is used to test performance as a function of available data. The rapid execution time of the model is well suited to the planned applications, including optimization during scenario development activities, and real-time plasma control. A potential application of the model to real-time profile estimation is demonstrated.

Boyer, Mark↗
DOE OSTI2020

Prescient

Prescient is a software package for simulating electricity grid (power systems) operations, under both nominal and extreme event conditions. Core functionality includes discrete event simulation, commitment and dispatch optimization, probabilistic scenario construction, and reporting/visualization. SAND2020-0169 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Watson, Jean Paul↗
DOE OSTI2022

Crosslink V.0.11.x User Manual

CrossLink is a novel two-dimensional and three-dimensional geometry and mesh generation software package developed by the Simulation Tools team at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This software represents the third generation of topology-based mesh generation technology developed by the Department of Defense and the Department of Energy with a special focus on complex multi-material hydrodynamic applications, mesh scalability, and high-order element mesh generation. The topology-based meshing approach offered by CrossLink enables users to quickly and easily mesh complex geometries in a repeatable and robust manner. CrossLink’s topology-based meshing approach is well-suited for parametric design studies, parametric design optimization, damage scenario assessment, and iterative design modification (i.e. feature addition and/or removal). CrossLink’s python API allows workflow scripting of the geometry creation and mesh generation process for traceability, repeatability, data provenance, and version control. CrossLink consists of three main components: a graphical user interface (GUI), a geometry creation and mesh generation engine, and a python API that provides a workflow scripting interface to the geometry and meshing functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Fundamental Economic Assessment of Recovering Rare Earth Elements and Critical Minerals from Acid Mine Drainage Using a Network Sourcing Strategy

In recent years, acid mine drainage (AMD) has emerged as a promising unconventional source of rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical minerals (CMs) such as cobalt and manganese. In this regard, AMD provides a natural heap leaching effect that extracts and concentrates REE/CM from the host strata creating a partially enriched feedstock suitable for downstream extraction, separation, and recovery. While several prior studies have described processes and approaches for the valorization of AMD, very few have described the supply chain and infrastructure requirements as well as the associated economic assessment. To that end, this paper provides a fundamental economic assessment of REE/CM recovery from AMD using a network sourcing strategy in addition to a robust, flexible feedstock separations and refining facility. The methodology of this paper follows that of a typical techno-economic analysis with capital and operating costs estimated using AACE Class IV (FEL-2) guidelines. To demonstrate the range of possible outcomes, four pricing scenarios were modeled including contemporary prices (September, 2021) as well as the minimum and maximum prices over the last decade. In addition, five production scenarios were considered reflecting variations in the product suite, ranging from full elemental separation to magnet REE and CM production only (i.e., Pr, Nd, Tb, Dy, Y, Sc, Co, and Mn). The results of this analysis show that, with the exception of the minimum price scenario, all operational configurations have positive economic indicators with rates of return varying from 25% to 32% for the contemporary price scenario. The optimal configuration was determined to be production of Co, Mn, and all REEs except for mischmetal, which is not recovered. Sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation show that capital cost and HCl consumption are the two major factors influencing rate of return, thus indicating opportunities for future technology development and cost optimization. Implications of the study and a cooperative profit-sharing model for sourcing are also described.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1981

Continued research on selected parameters to minimize community annoyance from airplane noise

Results from continued research on selected parameters to minimize community annoyance from airport noise are reported. First, a review of the initial work on this problem is presented. Then the research focus is expanded by considering multiobjective optimization approaches for this problem. A multiobjective optimization algorithm review from the open literature is presented. This is followed by the multiobjective mathematical formulation for the problem of interest. A discussion of the appropriate solution algorithm for the multiobjective formulation is conducted. Alternate formulations and associated solution algorithms are discussed and evaluated for this airport noise problem. Selected solution algorithms that have been implemented are then used to produce computational results for example airports. These computations involved finding the optimal operating scenario for a moderate size airport and a series of sensitivity analyses for a smaller example airport.

Frair, L.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Limits to the primordial helium abundance in the baryon-inhomogeneous big bang

The parameter space for baryon inhomogeneous big bang models is explored with the goal of determining the minimum helium abundance obtainable in such models while still satisfying the other light-element constraints. We find that the constraint of (D + He-3)/H less than 10 exp -4 restricts the primordial helium mass fraction from baryon-inhomogeneous big bang models to be greater than 0.231 even for a scenario which optimizes the effects of the inhomogeneities and destroys the excess lithium production. Thus, this modification to the standard big bang as well as the standard homogeneous big bang model itself would be falsifiable by observation if the primordial He-4 abundance were observed to be less than 0.231. Furthermore, a present upper limit to the observed helium mass fraction of Y(obs)(p) less than 0.24 implies that the maximum baryon-to-photon ratio allowable in the inhomogeneous models corresponds to eta less than 2.3 x 10 exp -9 (omega(b) h-squared less than 0.088) even if all conditions are optimized.

Mathews, G. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Forecasting of Storm Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite element based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗