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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

From LEO, to the Moon and then Mars: Developing a Global Strategy for Exploration Risk Reduction

Most nations currently involved in human spaceflight, or with such ambitions, believe that space exploration will capture the imagination of our youth resulting in future engineers and scientists, advance technologies which will improve life on earth, increase the knowledge of our solar system, and strengthen bonds and relationships across the globe. The Global Exploration Strategy, published in 2007 by 14 space agencies, eloquently makes this case and presents a vision for space exploration. It argues that in order for space exploration to be sustainable, nations must work together to address the challenges and share the burden of costs. This paper will examine Mars mission scenarios developed by NASA, ESA and other agencies and show resulting conclusions regarding key challenges, needed technologies and associated mission risks. It will discuss the importance of using the International Space Station as a platform for exploration risk reduction and how the global exploration community will develop lunar exploration elements and architectures that enable the long term goal of human missions to Mars. The International Space Station (ISS) is a critical first step both from a technology and capability demonstration point of view, but also from a partnership point of view. There is much work that can be done in low earth orbit for exploration risk reduction. As the current "outpost at the edge of the frontier", the ISS is a place where we can demonstrate certain technologies and capabilities that will substantially reduce the risk of deploying an outpost on the lunar surface and Mars mission scenarios. The ISS partnership is strong and has fulfilled mission needs. Likewise, the partnerships we build on the moon will provide a strong foundation for establishing partnerships for the human Mars missions. On the moon, we build a permanently manned outpost and deploy technologies and capabilities to allow humans to stay for long periods of time. The moon is interesting from a scientific point of view, but it is extremely important for development and demonstration the technologies and capabilities needed for human missions to Mars. This paper will show the logic and strategy for addressing technological, operational and programmatic challenges by using low earth orbit and lunar missions to enable the long term goal of exploration of our solar system.

Laurini, Kathleen C.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying a Multisector Scenario Framework to Evaluate Past and Future Public Surface Water Supply Infrastructure Strategies in Texas

Datasets supporting the index model and scenario analysis used in evaluating surface water supply strategies across different water system types in Texas. These data underpin the scenario development and application of five key indicators: Water Availability Index (WAI), Water Quality Index (WQI), Energy Requirement Index (ERI), Water Treatment Cost (WTC), and Water Infrastructure Cost (WIC). The datasets are organized by system type—stream reaches (flowlines), waterbodies, and reservoirs—and include both raw and standardized index values. The integrated datasets also provide scenario classifications (original and adjusted) based on infrastructure and planning priorities, enabling comparison across Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Additional strategy-level data are included to support evaluation of state-level new reservoir projects in relation to cost and availability tradeoffs. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions Folder: Index_model_database.zip Subfolder: Stream_reach.zip Fl_wf.csv, Fl_wq.csv, Fl_er.csv, Fl_wf_wtcUV.csv, Fl_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Fl_allfac_wic1.csv, Fl_allfac_wic2.csvDatasets for computing WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, and WIC for surface water systems classified as stream reaches (flowlines). Subfolder: Waterbody.zip Wb_wf.csv, Wb_wq.csv, Wb_er.csv, Wb_wf_wtcUV.csv, Wb_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Wb_allfac_wic1.csv, Wb_allfac_wic2.csvEquivalent index model datasets for waterbodies, reflecting hydrologic and infrastructure attributes specific to impounded natural systems. Subfolder: Reservoir.zip Rs_wf.csv, Rs_wq.csv, Rs_er.csv, Rs_wf_wtcUV.csv, Rs_wf_wtcnoUV.csv, Rs_allfac_wic1.csv, Rs_allfac_wic2.csvIndex model datasets specific to regulated reservoir systems, incorporating both resource indicators and cost parameters. Folder: Integrated data.zip combined_merged_data.csv, combined_merged_data_scenario.csvDatasets integrating index model indicators (both raw and scaled) with scenario classifications, including adjustments reflecting SSP-aligned transitions and planning shifts. Folder: Additional data.zip wai_supplystrat_wic_merged.csvCurated dataset capturing proposed major reservoir-based municipal water supply strategies in Texas. Integrates site-level planning data with estimated capital infrastructure costs and water availability scores for comparative assessment.

geospatial↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resilient NdFeB magnet recycling under the impacts of COVID-19 pandemic: Stochastic programming and Benders decomposition

Neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets are the most powerful magnets per unit volume sold in the commercial market. Despite the increasing demand for clean energy applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, disruptive events including the COVID-19 pandemic have caused significant uncertainties in the supply and demand for NdFeB magnets. Therefore, this study aims to alleviate the risk of supply shortage for NdFeB magnets and the containing critical materials, rare-earth elements (REEs), through the development of a resilient reverse supply chain and logistics network design. We develop scenarios to model the unique impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the proposed business, incorporating both disruption intensity and recovery rate. We formulate a chance-constrained two-stage stochastic programming model to maximize the profit while guaranteeing the network resiliency against disruption risks. To solve the problem in large-scale instances, we develop an efficient Benders decomposition algorithm that reduces the computational time by 98.5% on average compared to the default CPLEX algorithm. When applied to the United States, the model suggests the optimal facility locations, processing capacities, inventory levels, and material flows for NdFeB magnet recyclers that could meet 99.7% of the demand. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to incorporate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to design a resilient NdFeB magnet recycling supply chain and logistics network, leveraging risk-averse stochastic programming.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards an open model intercomparison platform for integrated assessment models scenarios

The majority of scenarios in the IPCC database are generated by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and come from model intercomparison projects. However, the way in which the current model intercomparison projects are organized is not open to all IAM teams worldwide. Here we propose a transparent and inclusive platform that is open to anyone with an IAM regarding protocols development, scenario submissions and results evaluation. We discuss the challenges of this approach, particularly human resources and financial support. Here, we identify diversity in the level of model capability and quality of model output as possibly critical issues. Despite such challenges, the IAM community and its scientific activities can improve and benefit from the proposed platform, ultimately contributing to better climate policymaking.

IAM↗
NASA NTRS1986

Study of selected tether applications in space, phase 3, volume 2

The results of a Phase 3 study of two Selected Tether Applications in Space (STAIS); deorbit of a Shuttle and launch of an Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), both from the space station using a tether were examined. The study objectives were to: perform a preliminary engineering design, define operational scenarios, develop a common cost model, perform cost benefits analyses, and develop a Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Key features of the performance analysis were to identify the net increases in effective Shuttle cargo capability if tethers are used to assist in the deorbit of Shuttles and the launching of the OTVs from the space station and to define deployer system designs required to accomplish these tasks. Deployer concepts were designed and discussed. Operational scenarios, including timelines, for both tethered and nontethered Shuttle and OTV operations at the space station were evaluated. A summary discussion of the Selected Tether Applications Cost Model (STACOM) and the results of the cost benefits analysis are presented. Several critical technologies needed to implement tether assisted deployment of payloads are also discussed. Conclusions and recommendations are presented.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX-U using neural networks

A new model for prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX and NSTX-U has been developed using neural networks. The model has been trained and tested on measured profiles from experimental discharges during the first operational campaign of NSTX-U. By projecting profiles onto empirically derived basis functions, the model is able to efficiently and accurately reproduce profile shapes. In order to project the performance of the model to upcoming NSTX-U operations, a large database of profiles from the operation of NSTX is used to test performance as a function of available data. The rapid execution time of the model is well suited to the planned applications, including optimization during scenario development activities, and real-time plasma control. Finally, a potential application of the model to real-time profile estimation is demonstrated.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX-U using neural networks

A new model for prediction of electron density and pressure profile shapes on NSTX and NSTX-U has been developed using neural networks. The model has been trained and tested on measured profiles from experimental discharges during the first operational campaign of NSTX-U. By projecting profiles onto empirically derived basis functions, the model is able to efficiently and accurately reproduce profile shapes. In order to project the performance of the model to upcoming NSTX-U operations, a large database of profiles from the operation of NSTX is used to test performance as a function of available data. The rapid execution time of the model is well suited to the planned applications, including optimization during scenario development activities, and real-time plasma control. A potential application of the model to real-time profile estimation is demonstrated.

Boyer, Mark↗
NASA NTRS1992

Electric propulsion for lunar exploration and lunar base development

Using electric propulsion to deliver materials to lunar orbit for the development and construction of a lunar base was investigated. Because the mass of the base and its life-cycle resupply mass are large, high specific impulse propulsion systems may significantly reduce the transportation system mass and cost. Three electric propulsion technologies (arcjet, ion, and magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) propulsion) were compared with oxygen/hydrogen propulsion for a lunar base development scenario. Detailed estimates of the orbital transfer vehicles' (OTV's) masses and their propellant masses are presented. The fleet sizes for the chemical and electric propulsion systems are estimated. Ion and MPD propulsion systems enable significant launch mass savings over O2/H2 propulsion. Because of the longer trip time required for the low-thrust OTV's, more of them are required to perform the mission model. By offloading the lunar cargo from the manned O2/H2 OTV missions onto the electric propulsion OTV's, a significant reduction of the low Earth orbit (LEO) launch mass is possible over the 19-year base development period.

Palaszewski, Bryan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Progress in direct recycling of spent lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cathodes

With the widespread use of lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) in portable electronics and electric vehicles (EVs), the end-of-life (EOL) LIBs are projected to reach 1336 GWh by 2040 under the sustainable development scenario. Proper recycling is urgently needed to minimize the release of hazardous waste and reduce mining activities by reintroducing critical minerals into the supply chain. Lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (LiNi x Mn y Co z O 2 , NMCs) cathodes have become dominant in the LIB market, especially with the increasing production of EVs, which are also the most valuable components in EOL LIBs. Unlike pyrometallurgical and/or hydrometallurgical methods, which convert spent NMCs into metals or metal compounds, direct recycling technologies aim to maximize the value of spent cathodes by restoring their degraded structure and composition. Furthermore, this review summarizes direct recycling methods for NMC cathodes published in the last decade and provides insights into the challenges and future development of direct recycling techniques.

Cathode↗
NASA NTRS1987

The evolution of the geostationary platform concept

The paper will review the conceptual development over the last decade of the use of very large spacecraft, i.e., 'platforms', in geostationary orbit. Geostationary platforms were originally conceived as an efficient means of increasing the capacity at a point in the geostationary orbital arc. Also, geostationary platforms have been suggested for mounting very large antennas as will be required for mobile communications, or high power sources as will be required for broadcast services to small terminals. More recently these 'large satellite' platforms were also envisioned as including earth observation and other science payloads. The advent of the Space Station, which can provide a staging base for platform assembly and test in space at low earth orbit prior to launch to geostationary earth orbit, will introduce a new dimension to practical platform design. This paper describes the evolution of concepts for geostationary platforms over the last decade based on both communications and science user scenarios developed worldwide.

Edelson, Burton I.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diii-D Research Advancing The Physics Basis For Optimizing The Tokamak Approach To Fusion Energy

DIII-D physics research addresses critical challenges for operation of ITER and the next generation of fusion energy devices. This is done through a focus on innovations to provide solutions for high performance long pulse operation, coupled with fundamental plasma physics understanding and model validation, to drive scenario development by integrating high performance core and boundary plasmas. Substantial increases in off-axis current drive efficiency from an innovative top launch system for EC power, and in pressure broadening for Alfven eigenmode control from a co-/counter-Ip steerable off-axis neutral beam, all improve the prospects for optimization of future long pulse/steady state high performance tokamak operation. Fundamental studies into the modes that drive the evolution of the pedestal pressure profile and electron vs. ion heat flux validate predictive models of pedestal recovery after ELMs. Understanding the physics mechanisms of ELM control and density pumpout by 3D magnetic perturbation fields leads to confident predictions for ITER and future devices. Validated modeling of high-Z shattered pellet injection for disruption mitigation, runaway electron dissipation, and techniques for disruption prediction and avoidance including machine learning, give confidence in handling disruptivity for future devices. With this physics understanding and suite of actuators, a high poloidal beta optimized-core scenario with an internal transport barrier that projects nearly to Q=10 in ITER at 9 MA was coupled to a detached divertor, and a near Super H-mode optimized-pedestal scenario with co-Ip beam injection, was coupled to a radiative divertor. The Hybrid core scenario was achieved directly, without the need for internal flux pumping, using off-axis current drive actuators, and a controller to avoid mode locking and disruptions in the ITER baseline scenario, based on plasma response to probing 3D fields, was demonstrated. Finally innovative tokamak operation using a negative triangularity shape showed many attractive features for future pilot plant operation.

Fenstermacher, M.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Aviation 2072: Scenario Planning for Wicked Problems

The world is changing rapidly. And with it, so are the potential futures for humanity. Many of these potential futures pose hidden threats, while others offer new opportunities for aviation and the broader aerospace community. To mitigate these risks and capitalize on opportunities, organizations must work to deeply understand these potential future scenarios and uncover any underlying drivers. Organizations will be more equipped and informed when making strategic investment decisions by better understanding these threats, opportunities, and drivers . The future scenarios and their threats and opportunities described in this paper were identified through a series of extensive brainstorming workshops, collectively titled MADNESS (Mapping for Aviation Driven by Needs Emergence and Satiating Society). These workshops engaged NASA civil servants and contractors with diverse backgrounds through a facilitated process of future scenario development and critique. The participants were led through exercises focused on a time horizon spanning from 2022 to 2072 and on problems that aviation might solve and or create during this period. From the broad results, two patterns of critical uncertainty emerged: “availability” (scarcity versus abundance) and “transparency” (openness versus security and privacy). The successful iteration and ideation across the MADNESS workshops also suggests a repeatable mechanism for strategic risk exploration across a variety of NASA and industry stakeholders.

Mapping↗
DOE OSTI2022

DIII-D research advancing the physics basis for optimizing the tokamak approach to fusion energy

DIII-D physics research addresses critical challenges for the operation of ITER and the next generation of fusion energy devices. This is done through a focus on innovations to provide solutions for high performance long pulse operation, coupled with fundamental plasma physics understanding and model validation, to drive scenario development by integrating high performance core and boundary plasmas. Substantial increases in off-axis current drive efficiency from an innovative top launch system for EC power, and in pressure broadening for Alfven eigenmode control from a co-/counter-I p steerable off-axis neutral beam, all improve the prospects for optimization of future long pulse/steady state high performance tokamak operation. Fundamental studies into the modes that drive the evolution of the pedestal pressure profile and electron vs ion heat flux validate predictive models of pedestal recovery after ELMs. Understanding the physics mechanisms of ELM control and density pumpout by 3D magnetic perturbation fields leads to confident predictions for ITER and future devices. Validated modeling of high-Z shattered pellet injection for disruption mitigation, runaway electron dissipation, and techniques for disruption prediction and avoidance including machine learning, give confidence in handling disruptivity for future devices. For the non-nuclear phase of ITER, two actuators are identified to lower the L–H threshold power in hydrogen plasmas. With this physics understanding and suite of capabilities, a high poloidal beta optimized-core scenario with an internal transport barrier that projects nearly to Q = 10 in ITER at ~8 MA was coupled to a detached divertor, and a near super H-mode optimized-pedestal scenario with co-I p beam injection was coupled to a radiative divertor. The hybrid core scenario was achieved directly, without the need for anomalous current diffusion, using off-axis current drive actuators. Also, a controller to assess proximity to stability limits and regulate β N in the ITER baseline scenario, based on plasma response to probing 3D fields, was demonstrated. Finally, innovative tokamak operation using a negative triangularity shape showed many attractive features for future pilot plant operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Automation and robotics human performance

The scope of this report is limited to the following: (1) assessing the feasibility of the assumptions for crew productivity during the intra-vehicular activities and extra-vehicular activities; (2) estimating the appropriate level of automation and robotics to accomplish balanced man-machine, cost-effective operations in space; (3) identifying areas where conceptually different approaches to the use of people and machines can leverage the benefits of the scenarios; and (4) recommending modifications to scenarios or developing new scenarios that will improve the expected benefits. The FY89 special assessments are grouped into the five categories shown in the report. The high level system analyses for Automation & Robotics (A&R) and Human Performance (HP) were performed under the Case Studies Technology Assessment category, whereas the detailed analyses for the critical systems and high leverage development areas were performed under the appropriate operations categories (In-Space Vehicle Operations or Planetary Surface Operations). The analysis activities planned for the Science Operations technology areas were deferred to FY90 studies. The remaining activities such as analytic tool development, graphics/video demonstrations and intelligent communicating systems software architecture were performed under the Simulation & Validations category.

Mah, Robert W.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal control of the electron temperature profile in DIII-D using machine learning surrogate models

The viability of the tokamak as a potential fusion reactor depends on the ability to keep the plasma in a stable regime while achieving temperatures, densities, and confinement times that are as high as possible. Tokamak scenario development attempts to find plasma regimes that achieve all of these conditions and are accessible with a given set of hardware constraints. This requires the ability to control plasma properties such as the normalized beta, the internal inductance, safety factor, rotation, etc. One property that has received less attention than some of the others, but is no less critical to achieving high performance, is the electron temperature (T e ) profile. In this work, Linear Quadratic Integral (LQI) control is used to develop a controller for the electron temperature profile in DIII-D. The controller is based on a linearized model derived from the transport equation that describes the evolution of the electron temperature, and includes contributions from the neural network surrogate models NubeamNet and MMMnet. Furthermore, the controller is tested in simulation using COTSIM, and is proven capable of tracking a target T e profile.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Multisector Scenarios of Outcomes for Well-Being and Resilience

Shared community scenarios of societal and environmental system changes have underpinned a broad range of research and assessment studies over the past several decades. These scenarios have largely aimed to address specific questions within broad issue areas like climate change or biodiversity and generally provided information on the drivers of change. The consequences of those drivers, such as impacts on society and policy responses, have tended to be left to the research community to investigate, using scenarios of drivers as inputs to their studies, producing projections of a disparate set of relevant output metrics. While this approach has had many benefits, it has fallen short of producing a robust, comparable literature describing outcomes across studies in common metrics. We argue that new scenarios are needed that extend current approaches to be organized around common outcome metrics for the well-being and resilience of society and ecosystems. We propose an approach that would focus on agreed upon outcomes for well-being and resilience as well as critical drivers of change, cut across issues and scales in multiple sectors, and draw on new systematic methods of scenario generation and discovery to highlight scenarios that are most critical in understanding societal risks and responding to them. Research derived from this outcome-based scenario development approach would facilitate improved assessment of risks of and responses to a range of stressors and the multi-sector interactions they generate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗