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Oak Ridge National Laboratory Next-Generation Safeguards Initiative: Human Capital Development

In 2007, the US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) Office of Nonproliferation and International Security (NA-24) completed a comprehensive review of the current and potential future challenges facing the international safeguards system. The review examined: trends and events that have an effect on the mission of international safeguards; the implications of expanding and evolving mission requirements of the legal authorities and institutions that serve as the foundation of the international safeguards system; and, the technological, financial, and human resources required for effective safeguards implementation. The review’s findings and recommendations were summarized in the report International Safeguards: Challenges and Opportunities for the 21st Century (October 2007). The executive summary is available at the following link: http://nnsa.energy.gov/sites/default/files/nnsa/inlinefiles/NGSI_Report.pdf.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Development of a Liquid-Fueled Molten Salt Reactor Safeguards Model.

This work describes the ongoing work to develop a molten salt reactor (MSR) model and associated tools for safeguards analysis. A new flowsheet was developed in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the Molten Salt Demonstration Reactor (MSDR). This design was chosen by ORNL as a generic baseline design that could be used for safeguards research. The model has simple chemical processing that is less extensive than the two-fluid flowsheet developed in the last year. A detailed TRITON reactor physics model, provided by ORNL, was implemented into the process model. The process model now includes reactor parameters such as K-eff and decay heat, which could be used as part of an advanced safeguards approach. Finally, a set of generic safeguards tools based on current safeguards approaches were developed. These tools are flexible and can be used with most MSR flowsheets. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was funded by the Materials Protection Accounting and Control Technologies (MPACT) working group as part of the Fuel Cycle Technologies Program under the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Nuclear Energy. The authors would also like to acknowledge Ben Betz ler for his work on the reactor physics models that were incorporated into the work and the continued collaboration with ORNL staff.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Machine Learning in Safeguards at Pebble Bed Reactors

The goal of this project is to investigate and demonstrate the applicability of machine learning (ML) in safeguards at pebble bed reactors (PBRs). The detailed scope of work includes working with DOE-Nuclear Energy and other domain experts to examine current safeguards approaches at PBRs, defining ML tasks that can potentially strengthen the safeguards at PBRs, selecting ML task(s) for proof of concept based on safeguards needs and availability of testbeds and datasets, and developing ML algorithm(s) to demonstrate the feasibility of ML in PBR safeguards.

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Analysis with the ORIGEN Module of PNAR Spent Fuel Measurements for Nuclear Safeguards Applications

This report documents the analysis of the Passive Neutron Albedo Reactivity (PNAR) measurements for 23 boiling water reactor spent fuel assemblies that were performed in Finland under Action Sheet 65, which is an international collaboration on spent fuel safeguards verification methods in the context of the Finnish spent fuel encapsulation/repository system. PNAR measures the passive neutron and gamma emission rates from each of the spent fuel assemblies like a Fork detector, and it also measures the PNAR ratio, which is expected to correlate with the net neutron multiplication of the measured fuel assembly. The analysis was performed with the Oak Ridge Isotope Generation and Depletion (ORIGEN) Data Analysis Module, which was originally developed for predicting Fork detector spent fuel measurement signals in real time and has been integrated into the Integrated Review and Analysis Package developed by Euratom and the International Atomic Energy Agency. The module includes the ORIGEN burnup analysis code and integrates detector response functions pregenerated using the MCNP Monte Carlo transport code to predict the detector signals in several seconds per assembly. In this study, new response functions specific to the analyzed PNAR measurements were generated for the ORIGEN Module. The study also analyzes the impact of using detailed fuel design and operation information vs. standard safeguards information on the results calculated with the ORIGEN Module. Using detailed information reduced the standard deviation of the relative differences between calculated and measured neutron count rates among the 23 assemblies from ~10% to ~4%. The results obtained using standard safeguards information for these PNAR measurements were similar to those obtained for the Fork detector. A clear trend was found between the calculated net neutron multiplications and the measured PNAR ratios of the 23 assemblies. An uncertainty assessment of the calculations was also performed to estimate the potential impact of the accuracy and the completeness of declaration information on the calculated results for the count rates and net neutron multiplications. The ORIGEN Module predictions for PNAR signals and net neutron multiplication are expected to directly support the safeguards inspectors’ efforts to verify operator declarations of a spent fuel assembly in real time in safeguards practices.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advanced Reactor Safeguards Program Roadmap

The Advanced Reactor Safeguards (ARS) program was established in 2020 as part of appropriations for the Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program (ARDP) through the Office of Nuclear Energy in the Department of Energy. The goal of this program is to help address near term challenges that advanced nuclear reactor vendors face in meeting domestic Material Control and Accountancy (MC&A) and Physical Protection System (PPS) requirements for U.S. construction. Existing regulations for safeguards and security, as outlined in the Code of Federal Regulations, were written for large light water reactors, and some of the requirements are not suited to smaller, safer advanced reactor designs. The ARS program seeks to remove roadblocks in the deployment of new and advanced reactors by solving regulatory challenges, reducing safeguards and security costs, and utilizing the latest technologies and approaches for robust plant monitoring and protection. Safeguards and Security by Design (SSBD), or the consideration of safeguards and security requirements early in the design process, is an overarching principle that guides this program. This roadmap discusses the goals of the ARS program, current research, and program plan for the next five years.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Safeguards Considerations for Coated Particle Fuel Fabrication Facilities

This study aims to identify where existing fuel fabrication safeguards are limited in application to coated particle fuel fabrication facilities; perform a review of techniques that may be appropriate to address these limitations; and identify where further study is required. The purpose is to ensure the necessary technology and safeguards developments are established to facilitate safeguards-by-design for coated particle fuel fabrication facilities, analogous to the research and development (R&D) efforts in the advanced reactor space, including those requiring coated particle fuels and progress to higher technology readiness levels. Finally, this study will also help meet high priority objectives set forth by the IAEA in establishing safeguards R&D precedence and measurement/procedural standards at emerging fuel fabrication facilities. To achieve these objectives, the report is formatted to (1) distill relevant background information on fuel fabrication of oxide and coated particle fuels; (2) provide an overview of the fuel fabrication techniques for a reference oxide fuel fabrication facility and two selected TRISO fuel fabrication facilities; (3) develop facility models of safeguards approaches for the reference facility and the two TRISO facilities; and (4) identify any observed technology needs or gaps from this analysis.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The research challenges in security and safeguards for nuclear fission batteries

This paper discusses the nuclear security and safeguards research challenges presented by the development and deployment of nuclear fission batteries. These are defined as easily transportable and deployable nuclear systems which are designed to operate either unattended or autonomously. We start by defining the current landscape of domestic and international safeguards and security and discuss how it can be affected by the introduction these new nuclear systems. We then specifically discuss the technology gaps and technologies to be developed to facilitate their practical deployment. We find that, as expected, we can leverage conclusions from existing security and safeguards studies for small modular rectors and develop bespoke target set analyses to inform security postures based on probabilistic risk assessment. We find also that specific fission battery security economic analysis tools are needed and security by design must be applied early. However, the most important finding is that these new systems will require a new comprehensive set of cyber tools covering transportation, installation, operation, maintenance security of the fission battery systems. Altogether, we find that the development of the necessary security and safeguards requirements at the design phase of such a technology will be of great benefit in the smooth deployment of this modern nuclear energy system.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Validation of ORIGEN for VVER-440 Spent Fuel with Application to Fork Detector Safeguards Measurements

The US Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration and the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom) are collaborating with the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority in Finland to assess spent fuel verification methods for potential application to measurements at the planned spent fuel encapsulation plant and geological repository prior to final disposal in Finland. The fork detector (FDET) used to measure the neutron and gamma radiation from a given spent fuel assembly is an existing technology widely used by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Euratom for the safeguards verification of spent fuel operator declaration. Recently, an FDET data analysis software, referred to as the ORIGEN module, was developed and incorporated into the IAEA/Euratom Integrated Review and Analysis Program. This module uses the ORIGEN burnup code to calculate the nuclide concentrations and the neutron and gamma source terms in the spent fuel based on operator declarations. Then, to predict the expected FDET signals for a given fuel assembly, the module combines the source terms calculated by ORIGEN with FDET response functions that were pre-generated using MCNP models. The inspector can compare the calculated signals to the measured values in real time to identify possible anomalies in fuel assembly’s operator declaration, integrity, or measurement. In this work, the capability of the ORIGEN module was extended from application to typical light water reactor fuels to use for VVER-440 assembly types. The accuracy of ORIGEN for this type of fuel assembly calculations was assessed by comparing calculated nuclide concentrations against destructive assay measurements for VVER-440 spent fuel. The performance of the ORIGEN module for FDET safeguards verification in routine inspections was assessed using FDET measurement data for 13 spent VVER-440 assemblies that were measured at the Loviisa Nuclear Power Plant in Finland, by comparing the calculated signals to the measured quantities. The results show that the calculated FDET neutron and gamma detector signals are generally within 12% of the measurements except for one assembly. Thus, these results are applicable to future safeguards verification in the planned Finland encapsulation plant, such as for passive neutron albedo reactivity safeguards measurements.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Safeguards Facility Model for Lead-cooled and Gas-cooled Fast Reactors

Efforts have been underway for many years on the development of safeguards for fast neutron reactors. The efforts have been primarily for sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) in cooperation with Japan, to properly implement these safeguards as the reactors are conceptualized and ultimately commercialized. The primary challenge to development of adequate safeguard approaches for fast reactors has been in understanding how to apply different aspects of safeguards when facilities widely vary from one type of fast reactor to another and is largely dependent on several key aspects of the specific reactor type. For this report, the following key areas were identified for further analysis to determine where Lead-cooled Fast Reactors (LFRs) and Gas-Cooled Fast Reactors (GCFR) fuel material flow and key measurement points would differ from previously studied SFR safeguards.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Safeguards Considerations for Salt Fuel Fabrication

Molten salt reactors (MSR) with liquid fuel present a unique safeguards challenge whereby the current verification techniques have not been evaluated for effectiveness and applicability. While MSR operations have been the subject of prior studies, the front-end liquid fuel preparation activities have not been extensively evaluated. Reviewing the existing resources on fuel fabrication and evaluating the range of fuel fabrication process options available will allow safeguards analysts to identify the applicability of existing safeguards practices, identify gaps in capability, and identify opportunities where safeguards may be applied. There is no existing supplier of fuel salt for MSRs. In an extensive review of MSR technology, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA's) Nuclear Power Technology Development Section acknowledges the gap in existing capabilities for fuel salt fabrication, noting, simply, “if demand exists, supply will appear.” Salt reactor fuel has not been previously produced on an industrial scale in a non-nuclear weapon state. These characteristics of MSR fuel fabrication present high levels of uncertainty, but they also represent an opportunity to mature safeguards techniques alongside liquid fuel preparation technologies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Safeguards Challenges for Molten Salt Reactors

There are now a wide variety of molten salt reactor (MSR) technologies being proposed or developed that are gaining international interest and momentum toward deployment. There are two sub-categories of this class of reactors - those that are liquid fueled (i.e., the molten salt is both the fuel and the coolant) and those that have solid fuel with the molten salt used as coolant only. The liquid-fueled MSRs present unique challenges to current safeguards approaches. These challenges exist because there are currently no conceptual approaches to applying safeguards to unique, tightly coupled nuclear energy systems with the reactor core, balance of plant, and fuel cycle (everything else including salt processing and material separations) combined in a single facility. The application of safeguards to liquid-fueled MSRs will have to take into consideration several technical factors including: The homogeneous mixture of fuel, coolant, fission products, and actinides (with the attendant extremely high radiation field); Continuous variation in isotopic concentrations in the fuel salt, including removal (passive or active) of fission products, rare earth elements, and noble metals; High operating temperatures of the fuel salt; Online processing where some fraction of the inventory can be removed while the reactor is operational; Unique refueling schemes, including the ability to continuously feed the core with fresh fissile or fertile material; The presence of frozen fuel, potentially requiring a different safeguards process from the liquid fuel; and The presence of fuel outside the vessel. Additionally, If the thorium fuel cycle is employed, there will be additional complications since the resulting radiation signatures will be different from those of the uranium-based fuel cycle. The existing IAEA inspection regimes are based on the uranium-plutonium fuel cycle, item counting for nuclear reactors, and bulk material accountancy for the front and back end of the nuclear fuel cycle. These techniques and associated instrumentation for bulk accountancy have been developed predominantly for enrichment, fuel fabrication, and aqueous reprocessing. However, none of these bulk accountancy measures can be directly applied to liquid-fueled MSRs. This paper will explore some of the possible challenges in applying safeguards to molten salt reactors.

Kovacic, Donald N↗

The Meaning of Risk for Safety, Security, and Safeguards in the Design of Advanced Nuclear Reactors

What is the meaning of risk as it applies to the design of advanced reactors in the disciplines of safety, security, and safeguards? How can we find common terminology for the concept of risk and how can we find interfaces between these disciplines? These are important questions that should be explored in order that they may be applied in an integrated manner for the most effective and efficient design approaches. Eliminating or minimizing risks is a key design driver that motivates and informs the development of nuclear reactors. For safety, risk is well understood and applied in Probabilistic Risk Assessments. For security, the risk-based concepts of vulnerability assessments and vital areas are all considered in designing security systems. For safeguards, the concept of risk is not formally defined, as it relates to the design and operation of nuclear reactors. International nuclear safeguards seek to reduce the risk of proliferation in the nuclear fuel cycle and as such the concept of risk does exist. Therefore, the current understanding of the “3S’ approach, which seeks to find the interfaces and conflicts between safety, security, and safeguards requires a thorough understanding of the role that the reduction of risk plays in all three disciplines. The intersection of risk for safety and security is now being developed as there is a strong correlation between reactor design and operations and their vulnerability to sabotage. The intersection of risk for security and safeguards has to date chiefly been focused on the nuclear material control and accounting systems, which are relied on by both the operator (State) and the IAEA. This paper explores the concept of risk in each of the three disciplines, how they interact, potential conflicts and interfaces , how these might be addressed and leveraged, and a notional framework for how this could be achieved.

Kovacic, Donald N↗

A New Modeling Technique to Analyze Safeguards Measurements in Large Systems

SafeGuards Analysis (SGA) is a computational toolbox able to simulate different safeguards scenarios across a number of different fuel cycles and at many different scales within the Matlab Simulink framework. SGA functions by simulating Material Balance Areas (MBAs) under safeguards materials control and accountability and allows the user to define the uncertainty parameters of the associated flow and inventory measurements. The simulated safeguard system uses the uncertain measurement estimates to calculate a mass-balance across the MBA. This mass balance is then evaluated by one of a number of different statistical tests to determine if a significant amount of material has been removed from the MBA. This work describes the design of SGA, the results of testing each element of the toolbox, and a number of single MBA example scenarios. In all of the test cases SGA performed as expected, and produced acceptable results from the single MBA scenario.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The U.S./IAEA Workshop on Software Sustainability for Safeguards Instrumentation

The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration’s Next Generation Safeguards Initiative, the U.S. Department of State, and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organized a a workshop on the subject of ”Software Sustainability for Safeguards Instrumentation.” The workshop was held at the Vienna International Centre in Vienna, Austria, May 6-8, 2014. The workshop participants included software and hardware experts from national laboratories, industry, government, and IAEA member states who were specially selected by the workshop organizers based on their experience with software that is developed for the control and operation of safeguards instrumentation. The workshop included presentations, to orient the participants to the IAEA Department of Safeguards software activities related to instrumentation data collection and processing, and case studies that were designed to inspire discussion of software development, use, maintenance, and upgrades in breakout sessions and to result in recommendations for effective software practices and management. This report summarizes the results of the workshop.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Current Status of Helium-3 Alternative Technologies for Nuclear Safeguards

International safeguards inspectorates (e.g., International Atomic Energy Agency {IAEA}, or Euratom) rely heavily on neutron assay techniques, and in particular, on coincidence counters for the verification of declared nuclear materials under safeguards and for monitoring purposes. While 3 He was readily available, the reliability, safety, ease of use, gamma-ray insensitivity, and high intrinsic thermal neutron detection efficiency of 3 He-based detectors obviated the need for alternative detector technologies. However, the recent decline of the 3 He gas supply has triggered international efforts to develop and field neutron detectors that make use of alternative materials. In response to this global effort, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) and Euratom launched a joint effort aimed at bringing together international experts, technology users and developers in the field of nuclear safeguards to discuss and evaluate the proposed 3 He alternative materials and technologies. The effort involved a series of two workshops focused on detailed overviews and viability assessments of various 3 He alternative technologies for use in nuclear safeguards applications. The key objective was to provide a platform for collaborative discussions and technical presentations organized in a compact, workshop-like format to stimulate interactions among the participants. The meetings culminated in a benchmark exercise providing a unique opportunity for the first inter-comparison of several available alternative technologies. This report provides an overview of the alternative technology efforts presented during the two workshops along with a summary of the benchmarking activities and results. The workshop recommendations and key consensus observations are discussed in the report, and used to outline a proposed path forward and future needs foreseeable in the area of 3 He-alternative technologies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Oak Ridge National Laboratory Office of International Nuclear Safeguards: Human Capital Development Activity in FY16

In 2007, the U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE NNSA) Office of Nonproliferation and Arms Control (NPAC) completed a comprehensive review of the current and potential future challenges facing the international safeguards system. One of the report’s key recommendations was for DOE NNSA to launch a major new program to revitalize the international safeguards technology and human resource base. In 2007, at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference, then Secretary of Energy Samuel W. Bodman announced the newly created Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI). NGSI consists of five program elements: policy development and outreach, concepts and approaches, technology and analytical methodologies, human capital development (HCD), and infrastructure development. This report addresses the HCD component of NGSI. The goal of the HCD component as defined in the NNSA Program Plan is “to revitalize and expand the international safeguards human capital base by attracting and training a new generation of talent.” The major objectives listed in the HCD goal include education and training, outreach to universities and professional societies, postdoctoral appointments, and summer internships at national laboratories.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Assess How Changes in Fuel Cycle Operation Impact Safeguards

Since the beginning of commercial nuclear power generation in the 1960s, the ability of researchers to understand and control the isotopic content of spent fuel has improved. It is therefore not surprising that both fuel assembly design and fuel assembly irradiation optimization have improved over the past 50+ years. It is anticipated that the burnup and isotopics of the spent fuel should exhibit less variation over the decades as reactor operators irradiate each assembly to the optimum amount. In contrast, older spent fuel is anticipated to vary more in burnup and resulting isotopics for a given initial enrichment. Modern fuel therefore should be more uniform in composition, and thus, measured safeguards results should be easier to interpret than results from older spent fuel. With spent fuel ponds filling up, interim and long-­term storage of spent fuel will need to be addressed. Additionally after long periods of storage, spent fuel is no longer self-­protecting and, as such, the IAEA will categorize it as more attractive; in approximately 20 years many of the assemblies from early commercial cores will no longer be considered self-­protecting. This study will assess how more recent changes in the reactor operation could impact the interpretation of safeguards measurements. The status quo for spent fuel assay in the safeguards context is that the overwhelming majority of spent fuel assemblies are not measured in a quantitative way except for those assemblies about to be loaded into a difficult or impossible to access location (dry storage or, in the future, a repository). In other words, when the assembly is still accessible to a state actor, or an insider, when it is cooling in a pool, the inspectorate does not have a measurement database that could assist them in re-­verifying the integrity of that assembly. The spent fuel safeguards regime would be strengthened if spent fuel assemblies were measured from discharge to loading into a difficult or impossible to access location. The primary driver for suggesting this shift in approach is the change in robotic technology and information technology in general. It should be possible, with minimal impact to the facility, to measure each assembly every time that it is moved in the pool, with the first measurements being made at discharge. The following conclusions were reached: The total neutron count rate can be accurately predicted at any future moment in time based upon the measured count rate at discharge, provided the initial enrichment and burnup of the assembly is known at discharge. It is expected that the total neutron count rate measured at discharge will be indicative of the initial enrichment and burnup of that assembly. If the automated robot were to focus on measuring the assemblies in the rack without moving them, the time available would increase immensely.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

University of Texas Safeguards by Design Problem Statement

This document describes the problem statement that students at the University of Texas will use for their senior level capstone design class. The purpose of this project is to introduce students to Safeguards by Design concepts as part of their capstone design course at the culmination of their degree program. This work is supported by Los Alamos National Laboratory with FY17 and FY18 programmatic funding from the U. S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), through the Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation (DNN), Office of International Nuclear Safeguards (INS), Next Generation Safeguards Initiative (NGSI), Human Resource Development Program, Safeguards by Design Project.

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