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At least 91 records · Page 5

Soil carbon storage capacity of drylands under altered fire regimes

The determinants of fire-driven changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) across broad environmental gradients remains unclear, especially in global drylands. Here we combined datasets and field sampling of fire-manipulation experiments to evaluate where and why fire changes SOC and compared our statistical model to simulations from ecosystem models. Drier ecosystems experienced larger relative changes in SOC than humid ecosystems—in some cases exceeding losses from plant biomass pools—primarily explained by high fire-driven declines in tree biomass inputs in dry ecosystems. Many ecosystem models underestimated the SOC changes in drier ecosystems. Upscaling our statistical model predicted that soils in savannah–grassland regions may have gained 0.64 PgC due to net-declines in burned area over the past approximately two decades. Consequently, ongoing declines in fire frequencies have probably created an extensive carbon sink in the soils of global drylands that may have been underestimated by ecosystem models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

In-Situ Inference: Bringing Advanced Data Science Into Exascale Simulations

As simulations generate ever-increasing amounts of data, there are correspondingly richer opportunities for analysis and scientific discovery - discoveries that will be missed if most of the data must be discarded before it is analyzed. Because future exascale architectures will be increasingly storage-limited, it will not be possible to save the vast majority of simulation data for later analysis, requiring analysis to occur “in-situ” within the simulation. However, existing in-situ data analysis frameworks provide little or no support for one of the most sophisticated forms of data science: probabilistic statistical modeling or uncertainty quantification (UQ), and the accompanying challenge of inference - fitting those statistical models to massive simulation output. Our goal is to develop the fundamental statistical algorithms and computer science needed to perform statistical inference in-situ (in HPC simulations) to the full stream of data those simulations generate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-Efficient Generation of Protein Conformational Ensembles with Backbone-to-Side-Chain Transformers

Excitement at the prospect of using data-driven generative models to sample configurational ensembles of biomolecular systems stems from the extraordinary success of these models on a diverse set of high-dimensional sampling tasks. Unlike image generation or even the closely related problem of protein structure prediction, there are currently no data sources with sufficient breadth to parametrize generative models for conformational ensembles. To enable discovery, a fundamentally different approach to building generative models is required: models should be able to propose rare, albeit physical, conformations that may not arise in even the largest data sets. Here, in this work, we introduce a modular strategy to generate conformations based on “backmapping” from a fixed protein backbone that (1) maintains conformational diversity of the side chains and (2) couples the side-chain fluctuations using global information about the protein conformation. Our model combines simple statistical models of side-chain conformations based on rotamer libraries with the now ubiquitous transformer architecture to sample with atomistic accuracy. Together, these ingredients provide a strategy for rapid data acquisition and hence a crucial ingredient for scalable physical simulation with generative neural networks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Determination of the 60 Zn level density from neutron evaporation spectra

Nuclear reactions of interest for astrophysics and applications often rely on statistical model calculations for nuclear reaction rates, particularly for nuclei far from β stability. However, statistical model parameters are often poorly constrained, where experimental constraints are particularly sparse for exotic nuclides. For example, our understanding of the breakout from the NiCu cycle in the astrophysical rp-process is currently limited by uncertainties in the statistical properties of the proton-rich nucleus 60 Zn. We have determined the nuclear level density of 60 Zn using neutron evaporation spectra from 58 Ni( 3 He,n) measured at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory. We compare our results to a number of theoretical predictions, including phenomenological, microscopic, and shell-model-based approaches. Notably, we find the 60 Zn level density is somewhat lower than expected for excitation energies populated in the 59 Cu(p,γ) 60 Zn reaction under rp-process conditions. This includes a level density plateau from roughly 5 to 6 MeV excitation energy, which is counter to the usual expectation of exponential growth and all theoretical predictions that we explore. Here, a determination of the spin distribution at the relevant excitation energies in 60 Zn is needed to confirm that the Hauser-Feshbach formalism is appropriate for the 59 Cu(p,γ) 60 Zn reaction rate at x-ray burst temperatures

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Photo response of 164 Dy

Background: Little data is available for the pygmy dipole resonance (PDR) in axially deformed nuclei. Photon-scattering experiments are complicated by high level densities in the PDR region and the small energy difference of transitions to the ground state and to excited states. Purpose: In this work, we report on an experimental study of the low-energy dipole strength distribution of the well-deformed nucleus 164 Dy between 4.0–7.7 MeV. Methods: The low-lying photoresponse of 164 Dy has been investigated using the method of nuclear resonance fluorescence using a quasimonochromatic linearly polarized $\textit{γ}$-ray beam in the energy range of 4.0–7.7 MeV in steps of 0.2 MeV. Results: For excitation energies between 4 MeV and 5 MeV, sufficiently low level densities allow for the identification of individual states, including level energies, reduced transition widths and branching ratios. Energy-averaged mean decay branching ratios, mean population ratios and partial absorption cross sections were determined above 5 MeV up to the neutron-separation threshold at 7.7 MeV. A Lorentzian-shaped enhancement of the partial photo absorption cross section followed by decays back to the ground-state band is found at 6.10(5) MeV with a width of 0.77(23) MeV. A comparison with results from complementary measurements is performed using the framework of the statistical model. Conclusions: The experimental results for the mean population ratios deviate systematically from the statistical model simulation by 30(6)%. However, they are in agreement within one standard deviation of the simulation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Risk-Adaptive Experimental Design for High-Consequence Systems: LDRD Final Report

Constructing accurate statistical models of critical system responses typically requires an enormous amount of data from physical experiments or numerical simulations. Unfortunately, data generation is often expensive and time consuming. To streamline the data generation process, optimal experimental design determines the 'best' allocation of experiments with respect to a criterion that measures the ability to estimate some important aspect of an assumed statistical model. While optimal design has a vast literature, few researchers have developed design paradigms targeting tail statistics, such as quantiles. In this project, we tailored and extended traditional design paradigms to target distribution tails. Our approach included (i) the development of new optimality criteria to shape the distribution of prediction variances, (ii) the development of novel risk-adapted surrogate models that provably overestimate certain statistics including the probability of exceeding a threshold, and (iii) the asymptotic analysis of regression approaches that target tail statistics such as superquantile regression. To accompany our theoretical contributions, we released implementations of our methods for surrogate modeling and design of experiments in two complementary open source software packages, the ROL/OED Toolkit and PyApprox.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Sustainability Trait Modeling of Field-Grown Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) Using UAV-Based Imagery

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provide an intermediate scale of spatial and spectral data collection that yields increased accuracy and consistency in data collection for morphological and physiological traits than satellites and expanded flexibility and high-throughput compared to ground-based data collection. In this study, we used UAV-based remote sensing for automated phenotyping of field-grown switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), a leading bioenergy feedstock. Using vegetation indices calculated from a UAV-based multispectral camera, statistical models were developed for rust disease caused by Puccinia novopanici, leaf chlorophyll, nitrogen, and lignin contents. For the first time, UAV remote sensing technology was used to explore the potentials for multiple traits associated with sustainable production of switchgrass, and one statistical model was developed for each individual trait based on the statistical correlation between vegetation indices and the corresponding trait. Also, for the first time, lignin content was estimated in switchgrass shoots via UAV-based multispectral image analysis and statistical analysis. The UAV-based models were verified by ground-truthing via correlation analysis between the traits measured manually on the ground-based with UAV-based data. The normalized difference red edge (NDRE) vegetation index outperformed the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) for rust disease and nitrogen content, while NDVI performed better than NDRE for chlorophyll and lignin content. Overall, linear models were sufficient for rust disease and chlorophyll analysis, but for nitrogen and lignin contents, nonlinear models achieved better results. As the first comprehensive study to model switchgrass sustainability traits from UAV-based remote sensing, these results suggest that this methodology can be utilized for switchgrass high-throughput phenotyping in the field.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The Data Synergy Effects of Time-Series Deep Learning Models in Hydrology

When fitting statistical models to variables in geoscientific disciplines such as hydrology, it is a customary practice to stratify a large domain into multiple regions (or regimes) and study each region separately. Traditional wisdom suggests that models built for each region separately will have higher performance because of homogeneity within each region. However, each stratified model has access to fewer and less diverse data points. Here, through two hydrologic examples (soil moisture and streamflow), we show that conventional wisdom may no longer hold in the era of big data and deep learning (DL). We systematically examined an effect we call data synergy, where the results of the DL models improved when data were pooled together from characteristically different regions. The performance of the DL models benefited from modest diversity in the training data compared to a homogeneous training set, even with similar data quantity. Moreover, allowing heterogeneous training data makes eligible much larger training datasets, which is an inherent advantage of DL. A large, diverse data set is advantageous in terms of representing extreme events and future scenarios, which has strong implications for climate change impact assessment. The results here suggest the research community should place greater emphasis on data sharing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Application of Linear Additive Conditions for Near-Infrared Diffuse Reflectance Absorption Spectroscopy

Determining the homogeneity of material mixing in real time during product processing is critical for quality control. According to the Kubelka–Munk (K-M) function of diffuse reflectance absorption spectrum, absorbance (A) is approximately linear with the content of the components when the sample scattering coefficient (S) is in a certain range. The S is determined by the particle size of powder samples. Therefore, this study determined particle size ranges that satisfy linear additivity in near-infrared diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (NIRDRS). Thus, the proposed NIRDRS analysis technique can be used to determine the homogeneity of material mixes or analyze the percentages of the components in the mixture. In this study, vitamin B3 and vitamin C were used for preparing mixed samples with varying percentages. The experimental results revealed that linear additivity is satisfied when the powder particle size is in the range of less than 280, 280–450, and 450–900 μm. When the confidence level is 0.01, the actual mixed spectra are not significantly different from the “simulated mixed spectra” constructed by linear addition, with their relative deviations less than 1.08%. The absolute errors of the actual and analytic percentages were within 2.98% for each component in the mixtures. The above conclusions also hold for sorghum, which has a complex material composition. Statistical models cannot analyze the percentages of components in the mixture. In contrast, linear addition and direct calibration approach avoids the use of a large number of samples for statistical modeling and analyze the percentages of mixed samples. Meanwhile, it can be used to discriminate and analyze the material mixing uniformity by building a mechanistic model.

Feng, Zhiyue↗

Grain size estimation in fluvial gravel bars using uncrewed aerial vehicles: A comparison between methods based on imagery and topography

Abstract Grain size assessments are necessary for understanding the various geomorphological, hydrological and ecological processes that occur within rivers. Recent research has shown that the application of Structure‐from‐Motion (SfM) photogrammetry to imagery from uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) shows promise for rapidly characterising grain sizes along rivers in comparison to traditional field‐based methods. Here, we evaluated the applicability of different methods for estimating grain sizes in gravel bars along a study reach in the Olentangy River in Columbus, Ohio. We collected imagery of these gravel bars with a UAV and processed those images with SfM photogrammetry software to produce three‐dimensional point clouds and orthomosaics. Our evaluation compared statistical models calibrated on topographic roughness, which was computed from the point clouds, and to those based on image texture, which was computed from the orthomosaics. Our results showed that statistical models calibrated on image texture were more accurate than those based on topographic roughness. This might be because of site‐specific patterns of grain size, shape and imbrication. Such patterns would have complicated the detection of topographic signatures associated with individual grains. Our work illustrates that UAV‐SfM approaches show potential to be used as an accessible method for characterising surface grain sizes along rivers at higher spatial and temporal resolutions than those provided by traditional methods.

Wong, Tyler↗

How Bayesian methods can improve R -matrix analyses of data: The example of the d t reaction

The 3 H(d, n) 4 He reaction is of significant interest in nuclear astrophysics and nuclear applications. It is an important, early step in big-bang nucleosynthesis and a key process in nuclear fusion reactors. We use one- and two-level R-matrix approximations to analyze data on the cross section for this reaction at center-of-mass energies below 215 keV. We critically examine the data sets using a Bayesian statistical model that allows for both common-mode and additional point-to-point un- certainties. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling to evaluate this R-matrix-plus-statistical model and find two-level R-matrix results that are stable with respect to variations in the channel radii. The S factor at 40 keV evaluates to 25.36(19) MeV b (68% credibility interval). We discuss our Bayesian analysis in detail and provide guidance for future applications of Bayesian methods to R-matrix analyses. We also discuss possible paths to further reduction of the S-factor uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A Binomial Stochastic Framework for Efficiently Modeling Discrete Statistics of Convective Populations

Abstract Understanding the coupling between convective clouds and the general circulation, as well as addressing the gray zone problem in convective parameterization, requires insight into the genesis and maintenance of spatial patterns in cumulus cloud populations. In this study, a simple toy model for recreating populations of interacting convective objects as distributed over a two‐dimensional Eulerian grid is formulated to this purpose. Key elements at the foundation of the model include i) a fully discrete formulation for capturing discrete behavior in convective properties at small population sample sizes, ii) object age‐dependence for representing life‐cycle effects, and iii) a prognostic number budget allowing for object interactions and co‐existence of multiple species. A primary goal is to optimize the computational efficiency of this system. To this purpose the object birth rate is represented stochastically through a spatially aware Bernoulli process. The same binomial stochastic operator is applied to horizontal advection of objects, conserving discreteness in object number. The applicability to atmospheric convection as well as behavior implied by the formulation is assessed. Various simple applications of the BiOMi model (Binomial Objects on Microgrids) are explored, suggesting that important convective behavior can be captured at low computational cost. This includes i) subsampling effects and associated powerlaw scaling in the convective gray zone, ii) stochastic predator‐prey behavior, iii) the downscale turbulent energy cascade, and iv) simple forms of spatial organization and convective memory. Consequences and opportunities for convective parameterization in next‐generation weather and climate models are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Sustainability Trait Modeling of Field-Grown Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) Using UAV-Based Imagery

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) provide an intermediate scale of spatial and spectral data collection that yields increased accuracy and consistency in data collection for morphological and physiological traits than satellites and expanded flexibility and high-throughput compared to ground-based data collection. In this project, we used UAV-based multispectral imagery collected from MicaSense RedEdge-M on a DJI Matrice 600 Pro for automated phenotyping of field-grown switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), a leading bioenergy feedstock. The raw images were processed with Pix4D Mapper to create the reflectance data, and vegetation indices were calculated from a UAV-based multispectral camera. Statistical models were developed for rust disease caused by Puccinia novopanici, leaf chlorophyll, nitrogen, and lignin contents. For the first time, UAV remote sensing technology was used to explore the potential for multiple traits associated with sustainable production of switchgrass. One statistical model was developed for each individual trait based on the statistical correlation between vegetation indices and the corresponding trait.

CBI↗

Evaluation of experimental constraints on the 44 Ti(α,p) 47 V reaction cross section relevant for supernovae

Due to its importance as an astronomical observable in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), the reactions producing and destroying 44 Ti must be well constrained. Generally, statistical model calculations such as Hauser-Feshbach are employed when experimental cross sections are not available, but the variation in such adopted rates can be large. Here, data from the literature is compared with statistical model calculations of the 44 Ti(α,p) 47 V reaction cross section and used to constrain the possible reaction rate variation over the temperatures relevant to CCSNe. Suggestions for targeted future measurements are given.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Morphostatistical characterization of the spatial galaxy distribution through Gibbs point processes

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a morphostatistical characterization of the galaxy distribution through spatial statistical modelling based on inhomogeneous Gibbs point processes. The galaxy distribution is supposed to exhibit two components. The first one is related to the major geometrical features exhibited by the observed galaxy field, here, its corresponding filamentary pattern. The second one is related to the interactions exhibited by the galaxies. Gibbs point processes are statistical models able to integrate these two aspects in a probability density, controlled by some parameters. Several such models are fitted to real observational data via the ABC shadow algorithm. This algorithm provides simultaneous parameter estimation and posterior-based inference, hence allowing the derivation of the statistical significance of the obtained results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

First Measurement of 87 Rb( α , xn ) Cross Sections at Weak r -process Energies in Supernova ν -driven Ejecta to Investigate Elemental Abundances in Low-metallicity Stars

Observed abundances of Z ∼ 40 elements in metal-poor stars vary from star to star, indicating that the rapid and slow neutron capture processes may not contribute alone to the synthesis of elements beyond iron. The weak r-process was proposed to produce Z ∼ 40 elements in a subset of old stars. Thought to occur in the ν-driven ejecta of a core-collapse supernova, ( α, xn ) reactions would drive the nuclear flow toward heavier masses at T = 2−5 GK. However, current comparisons between modeled and observed yields do not bring satisfactory insights into the stellar environment, mainly due to the uncertainties of the nuclear physics inputs where the dispersion in a given reaction rate often exceeds 1 order of magnitude. Involved rates are calculated with the statistical model where the choice of an α -optical-model potential ( α OMP) leads to such a poor precision. The first experiment on 87 Rb( α, xn ) reactions at weak r -process energies is reported here. Total inclusive cross sections were assessed at E c.m. = 8.1−13 MeV (3.7−7.6 GK) with the active target MUlti-Sampling Ionization Chamber. With an N = 50 seed nucleus, the measured values agree with statistical model estimates using the α OMP Atomki-V2. A reevaluated reaction rate was incorporated into new nucleosynthesis calculations, focusing on ν-driven ejecta conditions known to be sensitive to this specific rate. These conditions were found to fail to reproduce the lighter heavy element abundances in metal-poor stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Model-independent determination of the dipole response of 66 Zn using quasimonoenergetic and linearly polarized photon beams

Background: Photon strength functions are an important ingredient in calculations relevant for the nucleosynthesis of heavy elements. The relation to the photoabsorption cross section allows to experimentally constrain photon strength functions by investigating the photoresponse of atomic nuclei. Purpose: Here, we determine the photoresponse of 66 Zn in the energy region of 5.6 MeV to 9.9 MeV and analyze the contribution of the 'elastic' decay channel back to the ground state. In addition, for the elastic channel electric and magnetic dipole transitions were separated. Methods: Nuclear resonance fluorescence experiments were performed using a linearly polarized quasi-monoenergetic photon beam at the High Intensity γ-ray Source. Photon beam energies from 5.6 to 9.9 MeV with an energy spread of about 3% were selected in steps of 200–300 keV. Two high purity germanium detectors were used for the subsequent γ-ray spectroscopy. Results: Full photoabsorption cross sections are extracted from the data making use of the monoenergetic character of the photon beam. For the ground-state decay channel, the average contribution of electric and magnetic dipole strengths is disentangled. The average branching ratio back to the ground state is determined as well. Conclusions: The new results indicate lower cross sections when compared to the values extracted from a former experiment using bremsstrahlung on 66 Zn. In the latter, the average branching ratio to the ground state is estimated from statistical-model calculations in order to analyze the data. Corresponding estimates from statistical-model calculations underestimate this branching ratio compared to the values extracted from the present analysis, which would partly explain the high cross sections determined from the bremsstrahlung data.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗