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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Using Data Assimilation Methods for Prediction of Solar Activity

The variability of solar magnetic activity known as the 11-­‐year solar cycles has the longest history of observations. These solar cycles dramatically affect conditions in the heliosphere and the Earth’s space environment. Our current understanding of the physical processes that make up global solar dynamics and the dynamo that generates the magnetic fields is sketchy, resulting in unrealistic descriptions in theoretical and numerical models of the solar cycles. The absence of long-­‐term observations of solar interior dynamics and photospheric magnetic fields hinders development of accurate dynamo models and their calibration. In such situations, mathematical data assimilation methods provide an optimal approach for combining the available observational data and their uncertainties with theoretical models in order to estimate the state of the solar dynamo and predict future cycles. In this presentation, we will discuss the implementation and performance of an Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation method based on the Parker migratory dynamo model complemented by the equation of magnetic helicity conservation and long-­‐term sunspot data series. This approach has allowed us to reproduce the general properties of the solar cycles and has already demonstrated a good predictive capability for the current cycle, 24. We will discuss further development of this approach, which includes a more sophisticated dynamo model, synoptic magnetogram data, and employs the DART Data Assimilation Research Testbed.

Solar Activity↗
NASA NTRS1990

Some Results from Studies on Relationships Between the Optical-meteorological Parameters and Solar Activity. Part 2: Development of the Problem of Solar Forcing

A set of complex spectral, actinometric and meteorological data obtained in the periods of heightened solar activity (1981 and 1988) has been considered in order to reveal the atmospheric component affected by solar emissions in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. For the first time, it has been found out that water vapor molecules can be transformed, under the impact of corpuscular and microwave solar emissions, from the free state to the bound one (association into clusters), and vice versa. The transition of water vapor molecules into the bound state results in a decrease of spectral optical thickness in the visible, near IR and IR spectral regions, and an appearance and deepening of the cluster absorption bands at wavelengths 330 to 340, 365, 380 to 390, and 480 nm.

Kondratyev, K. Y.↗
DOE OSTI2015

CORONAL MAGNETOGRAPHY OF A SIMULATED SOLAR ACTIVE REGION FROM MICROWAVE IMAGING SPECTROPOLARIMETRY

We have simulated the Expanded Owens Valley Solar Array (EOVSA) radio images generated at multiple frequencies from a model solar active region, embedded in a realistic solar disk model, and explored the resulting data cube for different spectral analysis schemes to evaluate the potential for realizing one of EOVSA’s most important scientific goals—coronal magnetography. In this paper, we focus on modeling the gyroresonance and free–free emission from an on-disk solar active region model with realistic complexities in electron density, temperature and magnetic field distribution. We compare the magnetic field parameters extrapolated from the image data cube along each line of sight after folding through the EOVSA instrumental profile with the original (unfolded) parameters used in the model. We find that even the most easily automated, image-based analysis approach (Level-0) provides reasonable quantitative results, although they are affected by systematic effects due to finite sampling in the Fourier (UV) plane. Finally, we note the potential for errors due to misidentified harmonics of the gyrofrequency, and discuss the prospects for applying a more sophisticated spectrally based analysis scheme (Level-1) to resolve the issue in cases where improved UV coverage and spatial resolution are available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1971

Models of the quiet and active solar atmosphere from Harvard OSO data.

Review of some Harvard Observatory programs aimed at defining the physical conditions in quiet and active solar regions on the basis of data obtained from the OSO-IV and OSO-VI spacecraft. The spectral range covered is from 300 A to 1400 A. This spectral range consists of emission lines and continua from abundant elements such as hydrogen, helium, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, silicon, magnesium, aluminum, neon, iron, and calcium in various ionization states ranging from neutral to 15 times ionized. The structure is discussed of the quiet solar atmosphere as deduced from center-to-limb behavior of spectral lines and continua formed in the chromosphere and corona. In reviewing investigations of solar active regions, it is shown that the structure of these regions varies in a complicated manner from point to point. The local structure is influenced by factors such as the magnetic field configuration within the active region and the age or evolutionary state of the region.

Noyes, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Global Solar Activity Data Portal for Studying 3D Dynamics and Activity of the Sun

The main problems with understanding and predicting solar activity are tightly linked to limitations in describing the global evolution of the Sun from the deep interior to the corona. Because of the complexity of interactions in a wide range of dynamical, turbulent, and spatial scales and dramatic changes in thermodynamic and magnetic field conditions, only physics-based models can provide essential background to generate reliable solar activity forecasts. However, performing accurate model calibration and estimating uncertainties is often challenging due to the unavailability of a long time series of observations. To mitigate these limitations, we have developed the Global Solar Activity (GSA) Data Portal, which enables convenient access to a variety of modern and historical data. The portal supports a dynamic visualization for 1D time series (such as the sunspot number and solar irradiance) and quick-look visualization for 2D datasets (e.g., synoptic magnetograms, the solar internal rotation, and flows). The GSA portal includes a search engine that enables data retrieval from user-specified data sources and time intervals. In this presentation, we will discuss the current and upcoming capabilities of the data portal and its potential applications for space weather studies.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS1975

Some problems in coupling solar activity to meteorological phenomena

The development of a theory of coupling of solar activity to meteorological phenomena is hindered by the difficulties of devising a mechanism that can modify the behavior of the troposphere while employing only a negligible amount of energy compared with the energy necessary to drive the normal meteorological system, and determining how such a mechanism can effectively couple some relevant magnetospheric process into the troposphere in such a way as to influence the weather. A clue to the nature of the interaction between the weather and solar activity might be provided by the fact that most solar activity undergoes a definite 11-yr cycle, and meteorological phenomena undergo either no closely correlated variation, an 11-yr variation, or a 22-yr variation.

Dessler, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Some problems in coupling solar activity to meteorological phenomena

The development of a theory of coupling of solar activity to meteorological phenomena has to date foundered on the two difficulties of (1) devising a mechanism that can modify the behavior of the troposphere while employing only a negligible amount of energy compared with the energy necessary to drive the normal meteorological system; and (2) determining how such a mechanism can effectively couple some relevant magnetospheric process into the troposphere in such a way as to influence the weather. A clue to the nature of the interaction between the weather and solar activity might be provided by the fact that most solar activity undergoes a definite 11-year cycle, while meteorological phenomena undergo either no closely correlated variation, or an 11-year variation, or a 22-year variation.

Dessler, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

On the relationship between the phases of 27-day total ozone and solar activity indices in different latitudinal zones

The dynamics of 27 day total ozone variations during and 11 year solar activity cycle at high and low latitudes was analyzed. The calculations were made using a specially worked out program permitting, besides the determination of the amplitudes and phases, the observation of the coherence of phases in any time interval. To characterize solar activity, solar radio-flux at 10.7 cm was used. The results of the calculation of total ozone phases difference and those of the index F(sub 10.7), as well as the amplitudes of the 27 day variations of these parameters are presented.

Ivanova, I. N.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Solar Activities Associated with 3 He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Events Observed by Solar Orbiter

A series of 3 He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) events was observed by Solar Orbiter in May 2021 at a radial distance of 0.95 AU. An isolated active region AR 12824 was likely the ultimate source of these SEP events. The period of the enhanced flux of 3He was also a period of frequent type III bursts in the decametric-hectometric range, confirming their close relationship. As in past studies, we try to find the solar activities possibly responsible for 3 He-rich SEP events, using the type III bursts close to the particle injection times estimated from the velocity dispersion. But this exercise is not as straightforward as in many of the past studies since the region produced many more type III bursts and jet-like eruptions than the SEP injections. We may generalize the solar activities for the 3 He-rich SEP events in question as coronal jets, but their appearances do not necessarily conform to classic jets that consist of a footpoint and a spire. Conversely, such jets often did not accompany type III bursts. The areas that produced jet-like eruptions changed within the active region from the first to the second set of 3 He-rich SEP events, which may be related to the extended coronal mass ejection that launched stealthily.

Sun↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar activity variation of ionospheric plasma temperatures

The present status of understanding and modeling of the variation of electron and ion temperatures with solar activity is reviewed. All atmospheric and ionospheric densities and temperatures are positively correlated with solar activity except the electron temperature, which exhibits a rather complex variation pattern during a solar cycle. The ion temperature at low altitudes closely follows the variation patterns of the neutral temperature. The electron temperature at high altitudes increases with increasing solar activity; the increase is larger during day than during night and exhibits a latitudinal variation. At low altitudes during daytime, tha amplitude of the seasonal variation of the electron temperature increases toward the solar maximum. At 400 km during daytime, the summer electron temperatures for Millstone Hill increase slightly toward higher solar activities, whereas the winter temperatures decrease distinctly. For Arecibo, an opposite trend is noticeable.

Bilitza, D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Solar activity predictions at Peking Observatory

Solar activity prediction procedures used at the Peking Observatory are briefly reviewed. Methods for short term prediction of solar proton events and the results for proton events of importance greater than 1 during the period 1974-1977 are given in detail. The characteristic values of solar cycle 21 are predicted.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1993

Solar activity and oscillation frequency splittings

Solar p-mode frequency splittings, parameterized by the coefficients through order N = 12 of a Legendre polynomial expansion of the mode frequencies as a function of m/L, were obtained from an analysis of helioseismology data taken at Big Bear Solar Observatory during the 4 years 1986 and 1988-1990 (approximately solar minimum to maximum). Inversion of the even-index splitting coefficients confirms that there is a significant contribution to the frequency splittings originating near the solar poles. The strength of the polar contribution is anti correlated with the overall level or solar activity in the active latitudes, suggesting a relation to polar faculae. From an analysis of the odd-index splitting coefficients we infer an uppor limit to changes in the solar equatorial near-surface rotatinal velocity of less than 1.9 m/s (3 sigma limit) between solar minimum and maximum.

Woodard, M. F.↗