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A predictive discrete-continuum multiscale model of plasticity with quantified uncertainty

Multiscale models of materials, consisting of upscaling discrete simulations to continuum models, are unique in their capability to simulate complex materials behavior. The fundamental limitation in multiscale models is the presence of uncertainty in the computational predictions delivered by them. In this work, a sequential multiscale model has been developed, incorporating discrete dislocation dynamics (DDD) simulations and a strain gradient plasticity (SGP) model to predict the size effect in plastic deformations of metallic micro-pillars. The DDD simulations include uniaxial compression of micro-pillars with different sizes and over a wide range of initial dislocation densities and spatial distributions of dislocations. An SGP model is employed at the continuum level that accounts for the size-dependency of flow stress and hardening rate. Sequences of uncertainty analyses have been performed to assess the predictive capability of the multiscale model. The variance-based global sensitivity analysis determines the effect of parameter uncertainty on the SGP model prediction. The multiscale model is then constructed by calibrating the continuum model using the data furnished by the DDD simulations. A Bayesian calibration method is implemented to quantify the uncertainty due to microstructural randomness in discrete dislocation simulations (density and spatial distribution of dislocations) on the macroscopic continuum model prediction (size effect in plastic deformation). Here, the outcomes of this study indicate that the discrete-continuum multiscale model can accurately simulate the plastic deformation of micro-pillars, despite the significant uncertainty in the DDD results. Additionally, depending on the macroscopic features represented by the DDD simulations, the SGP model can reliably predict the size effect in plasticity responses of the micropillars with below 10% of error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Calibration of cloud and aerosol related parameters for solar irradiance forecasts in WRF-solar

Model parameters are a major source of uncertainty in numerical weather prediction. Recently, the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar) has been upgraded by enhancing the treatment of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosols with augmentations of a sub-grid scale cloud scheme (CLD3) and an upgraded aerosol-aware Thompson-Eidhammer scheme (TE14). However, the value of model parameters associated with these parameterizations are assigned based on limited measurements or theoretical calculations. Calibrating the most sensitive parameters has the potential to improve solar irradiance predictions. Here, we adopted a multiobjective surrogate-based optimization (SBO) framework to calibrate nine parameters used in CLD3 and TE14 that lead to the largest sensitivity in simulated irradiance. The normalized mean-absolute-error (NMAE) of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are minimized by calibrating WRF-Solar over two regions including the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Central California, in order to focus on parameter calibration under cloudy conditions with different aerosol loading. The results show that generalized linear model (GLM)-based surrogate models approximate physical models well, particularly when the third order and three-way interaction terms are considered. The SBO framework efficiently searches the parameter space for optimal solutions with less computational costs than directly calibrating the physical model. We first calibrate CLD3 parameters over the less-polluted SGP region. Optimized CLD3 parameters alone result in NMAE reduction by 14% for the site-mean and up to 33% for individual cases over the SGP region. With further calibration of TE14 parameters over the Central California during active fire periods, the optimized parameters lead to over 20% reductions of NMAE. Our investigation reveals, however, that optimizing TE14 has a limited impact on irradiance simulations under less-polluted conditions in the SGP.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Predictions of Boron Phase Stability Using an Efficient Bayesian Machine Learning Interatomic Potential

Thermodynamic phase stability of three elemental boron allotropes, i.e., α-B, β-B, and γ-B, was investigated using a Bayesian interatomic potential trained via a sparse Gaussian process (SGP). SGP potentials trained with datasets from on-the-fly active learning achieve quantum mechanical level accuracy when employed in molecular dynamics simulations to predict wide-ranging thermodynamic, structural, and vibrational properties. The simulated phase diagram (500~1400 K and 0~16 GPa) agrees with experimental measurements. The SGP-based MD simulations also successfully predicted that the B13 defect is critical in stabilizing β-B below 700 K. At higher temperatures, the entropy becomes the dominant factor, making β-B the more stable phase over α-B. Furthermore, this Letter demonstrates that SGP potentials based on a training set consisting of defect-free-only systems could make correct predictions of defect-related phenomena in solid-state crystals, paving the path to investigate crystal phase stability and transitions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying long-term seasonal and regional impacts of North American fire activity on continental boundary layer aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei

An intimate knowledge of aerosol transport is essential in reducing the uncertainty of the impacts of aerosols on cloud development. Datasets from the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement platform in the Southern Great Plains region (ARM-SGP) and the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) showed seasonal increases in aerosol loading and total carbon concentration during the spring and summer months (2008-2016) which was attributed to fire activity and smoke transport within North America. The monthly mean MERRA-2 surface carbonaceous aerosol mass concentration and ARM-SGP total carbon products were strongly correlated (R=0.82, p<0.01) along with a moderate correlation with the ARM-SGP cloud condensation nuclei (N CCN ) product (0.5, p~0.1). The monthly mean ARM-SGP total carbon and N CCN products were strongly correlated (0.7, p~0.01). An additional product denoting fire number and coverage taken from the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) showed a moderate correlation with the MERRA-2 carbonaceous product (0.45, p<0.01) during the 1981-2016 warm season months (March-September). With respect to meteorological conditions, the correlation between the NIFC fire product and MERRA-2 850 hPa isobaric height anomalies was lower (0.26, p~0.13) due to the variability in the frequency, intensity, and number of fires in North America. An observed increase in the isobaric height anomaly during the past decade may lead to frequent synoptic ridging and drier conditions with more fires, thereby potentially impacting cloud/precipitation processes and decreasing air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Towards a Unified Setup to Simulate Mid‐Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems at Kilometer‐Scales

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are the main source of precipitation in the tropics and parts of the mid‐latitudes and are responsible for high‐impact weather worldwide. Studies showed that deficiencies in simulating mid‐latitude MCSs in state‐of‐the‐art climate models can be alleviated by kilometer‐scale models. However, whether these models can also improve tropical MCSs and whether we can find model settings that perform well in both regions is understudied. We take advantage of high‐quality MCS observations collected over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facilities in the US Southern Great Plains (SGP) and the Amazon basin near Manaus (MAO) to evaluate a perturbed physics ensemble of simulated MCSs with 4 km horizontal grid spacing. A new model evaluation method is developed that enables to distinguish biases stemming from spatiotemporal displacements of MCSs from biases in their reflectivity and cloud shield. Amazon MCSs are similarly well simulated across these evaluation metrics than SGP MCSs despite the challenges anticipated from weaker large‐scale forcing in the tropics. Generally, SGP MCSs are more sensitive to the choice of model microphysics, while Amazon cases are more sensitive to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. Although our tested model physics combinations had strengths and weaknesses, combinations that performed well for SGP simulations result in worse results in the Amazon basin and vice versa. However, we identified model settings that perform well at both locations, which include the Thompson and Morrison microphysics coupled with the Yonsei University (YSU) PBL scheme and the Thompson scheme coupled with the Mellor‐Yamada‐Janjic PBL scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Case study of a bore wind-ramp event from lidar measurements and HRRR simulations over ARM Southern Great Plains

The rapid change of wind speed and direction on 21 August 2017 is studied using Doppler lidar measurements at five sites of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) facility in north-central Oklahoma. The Doppler lidar data were investigated along with meteorological variables such as temperature, humidity, and turbulence available from the large suite of instrumentation deployed at the SGP Central Facility (C1) during the Land-Atmosphere Feedback Experiment in August 2017. Lidar measurements at five sites, separated by 55-70 km, allowed us to document the development and evolution of the wind flow over the SGP area, examine synoptic conditions to understand the mechanism that leads to the ramp event, and estimate the ability of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model to reproduce this event. The flow feature in question is an atmospheric bore, a small-scale phenomenon that is challenging to represent in models, that was generated by a thunderstorm outflow northwest of the ARM SGP area. The small-scale nature of bores, its impact on power generation, and the modeling challenges associated with representing bores are discussed in this paper. In conclusion, the results also provide information about model errors between sites of different surface and vegetation types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Physics-Informed Sparse Gaussian Process for Probabilistic Stability Analysis of Large-Scale Power System with Dynamic PVs and Loads

This work proposes a physics-informed sparse Gaussian process (SGP) for probabilistic stability assessment of large-scale power systems in the presence of uncertain dynamic PVs and loads. The differential and algebraic equations considering uncertainties from dynamic PVs and loads are reformulated to a nonlinear mapping relationship that allows the application of SGP. Thanks to the nonparametric characteristic of Gaussian process, the proposed framework does not require distributions of uncertain inputs and this distinguishes it from existing approaches. As the original Gaussian process is not scalable to large-scale systems with high dimensional uncertain inputs, this paper develops the SGP with a stochastic variational inference technique. It leads to approximately two orders of complex reduction. A data pre-processing step is also introduced to tackle the coexistence of stable and unstable cases by sample clustering and constructing separate SGPs. The probabilistic transient stability index is analyzed to assess system stability under different uncertain dynamics loads and PVs. Comparisons are performed with the sampling-based, the polynomial chaos expansion-based, and traditional Gaussian process-based methods on the modified IEEE 118-bus and Texas 2000-bus systems under various scenarios, including different levels of uncertainties and the existence of nonlinear correlations among dynamic PVs. The impacts of data quality and quantity issues are also investigated. It is shown that the proposed SGP achieves significantly improved computational efficiency while maintaining high accuracy with a limited number of data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

CMDV-RRM: Representation of Clouds and Convection Across Scales in E3SM (Final Report)

We have made three accomplishments as a participant of the LLNL-led CMDV-RRM project. The first is the derivation of 3D high-resolution atmospheric variational analysis (VAR) at 2 x 2 km resolution by integrating ARM data and operational analysis for a domain of approximately 450 x 400 km centered at the ARM SGP facility for several MC3E convective events and used the analyzed data to evaluate E3SM RRM and as forcing data for E3SM SCM. The second accomplishment is the demonstration of elevated maximum moist static energy during the night over the ARM SGP that was not accounted for in the default E3SM convection scheme. The third accomplishment is the explanation of the cause of the dry and warm biases over the SGP common to many climate models by using ARM data. We found that the precipitation deficit associated with lack of strong rainfall events in the summer is the main cause of the warm bias over the SGP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from the Southern Great Plains Field Campaign Report

The recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility field campaign, named Examining the Ice-Nucleating Particles from Southern Great Plains (ExINP-SGP), targeted experimentally characterizing abundance and other properties of ambient ice-nucleating particles (INPs) at the SGP site in Oklahoma (36° 36' 18" N, 97° 29' 6" W) during the period of October 1 to November 14, 2019. This campaign was funded through the DOE Office of Science Early Career Research Program (DE-SC0018979) as one of three major campaigns to be conducted at three ARM observatories, including the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) station in 2020–2021 and North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site in 2021–2023, besides SGP. Different INP episodes were assessed to develop an SGP-relevant ice nucleation parameterization that would help understand convective and mixed-phase cloud systems typically observed in this region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biological particles and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains (Final Report)

The United States Southern Great Plains (SGP) is the genesis for much of the warm season precipitation in the central and eastern United States. While atmospheric thermodynamics and large-scale dynamics play an important role in formation of precipitation, precipitation mechanisms are also sensitive to aerosols. Aerosols can suppress precipitation as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or act as ice nucleating particles (INP) in deep convective clouds. This project focused on understanding the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) in the region and its influence on cloud formation. Specifically, we focused on biological aerosol in the form of pollen, one type of PBAP that is emitted in large yet variable quantities from vegetation in the mid latitudes. Field observations provide evidence of pollen in the planetary boundary layer and pollen components in cloud droplets and fine particulate matter. Further, pollen grains can easily rupture when wet, forming smaller, sub pollen particles with sizes less than one micron. We evaluated the potential for PBAP events at the Department of Energy (DoE) SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research facility due to the rich dataset available. We also developed model simulations that accounted for pollen emission and the generation of sub pollen particles, which have been shown to be both cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles. The proposed work was designed to address the following questions: 1. What are the physical and chemical signatures of biological aerosol such as pollen in SGP ARM measurements? 2. What is the role of pollen-derived particles on deep convection and precipitation in the Central US? Using measurements from the DoE SGP ARM site and recent airborne campaigns, we evaluated the signatures of pollen and pollen-derived aerosols on optical properties, cloud properties and precipitation (Subba et al., 2021). We identified pollen-driven events over the data record and used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fully coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) to conduct chemically realistic simulations of aerosols during and summer mesoscale convective events in the Southern Great Plains (Subba et al., in review). This work improved our understanding of the role of biological aerosol on clouds and precipitation in the Central United States and placed these results in context with anthropogenically-driven processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biological particles and aerosol-cloud interactions in the Southern Great Plains

The United States Southern Great Plains (SGP) is the genesis for much of the warm season precipitation in the central and eastern United States. While atmospheric thermodynamics and large-scale dynamics play an important role in formation of precipitation, precipitation mechanisms are also sensitive to aerosols. Aerosols can suppress precipitation as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or act as ice nucleating particles (INP) in deep convective clouds. This project focused on understanding the role of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) in the region and its influence on cloud formation. Specifically, we focused on biological aerosol in the form of pollen, one type of PBAP that is emitted in large yet variable quantities from vegetation in the mid latitudes. Field observations provide evidence of pollen in the planetary boundary layer and pollen components in cloud droplets and fine particulate matter. Further, pollen grains can easily rupture when wet, forming smaller, sub pollen particles with sizes less than one micron. We evaluated the potential for PBAP events at the Department of Energy (DoE) SGP Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) research facility due to the rich dataset available. We also developed model simulations that accounted for pollen emission and the generation of sub pollen particles, which have been shown to be both cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles. The proposed work was designed to address the following questions: 1. What are the physical and chemical signatures of biological aerosol such as pollen in SGP ARM measurements? 2. What is the role of pollen-derived particles on deep convection and precipitation in the Central US? Using measurements from the DoE SGP ARM site and recent airborne campaigns, we evaluated the signatures of pollen and pollen-derived aerosols on optical properties, cloud properties and precipitation (Subba et al., 2021). We identified pollen-driven events over the data record and used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with fully coupled chemistry (WRF-Chem) to conduct chemically realistic simulations of aerosols during and summer mesoscale convective events in the Southern Great Plains (Subba et al., in review). This work improved our understanding of the role of biological aerosol on clouds and precipitation in the Central United States and placed these results in context with anthropogenically-driven processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fixed-Site KAZR b1 Data Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility operates three fixed-site observatories: Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), North Slope of Alaska (NSA), and Southern Great Plains (SGP). Each fixed site has a wide variety of atmospheric instrumentation that has been collecting data for at least 10 years (NSA and SGP over 25 years). Each site is unique because it represents a different climate state. The environment at ENA is characterized by marine stratocumulus clouds and one of the key scientific areas of focus is the interaction of these clouds with aerosols. At NSA the focus is on arctic climate and cloud and radiative processes in a high-latitude environment. SGP represents a mid-latitude, mid-continent climate that experiences environmental cycles on diurnal and seasonal time scales. The ARM observatories are all meant to improve understanding of atmospheric processes that can then be better incorporated into weather and climate models. Another common thread between the fixed sites is the focus on cloud processes. Each site is equipped with at least one radar that provides continuous remote-sensing observations of clouds and precipitation. This report details the analysis of a1-level radar data at the fixed sites and the process for generating b1-level data. While b1-level data have been produced for ARM campaigns at the mobile facilities, this is the first analysis led by ARM radar mentors to correct data at the fixed sites. In particular, we focus on calibrations and corrections of the Ka-band ARM Zenith Radars (KAZRs) at ENA, NSA, and SGP. Ongoing and future work will involve corrections applied to other fixed-site radars.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Best estimate of the planetary boundary layer height from multiple remote sensing measurements

Remote sensing measurements have been widely used to estimate the planetary boundary layer height (PBLHT). Each remote sensing approach offers unique strengths and faces different limitations. In this study, we use machine learning (ML) methods to produce a best-estimate PBLHT (PBLHT-BE-ML) by integrating four PBLHT estimates derived from remote sensing measurements at the Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory. Three ML models – random forest (RF) classifier, RF regressor, and light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM) – were trained on a dataset from 2017 to 2023 that included radiosonde, various remote sensing PBLHT estimates, and atmospheric meteorological conditions. Evaluations indicated that PBLHT-BE-ML from all three models improved alignment with the PBLHT derived from radiosonde data (PBLHT-SONDE), with LightGBM demonstrating the highest accuracy under both stable and unstable boundary layer conditions. Feature analysis revealed that the most influential input features at the SGP site were the PBLHT estimates derived from (a) potential temperature profiles retrieved using Raman lidar (RL) and atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) measurements (PBLHT-THERMO), (b) vertical velocity variance profiles from Doppler lidar (PBLHT-DL), and (c) aerosol backscatter profiles from micropulse lidar (PBLHT-MPL). The trained models were then used to predict PBLHT-BE-ML at a temporal resolution of 10 min, effectively capturing the diurnal evolution of PBLHT and its significant seasonal variations, with the largest diurnal variation observed over summer at the SGP site. We applied these trained models to data from the ARM Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) field campaign (EPC), where the PBLHT-BE-ML, particularly with the LightGBM model, demonstrated improved accuracy against PBLHT-SONDE. Analyses of model performance at both the SGP and EPC sites suggest that expanding the training dataset to include various surface types, such as ocean and ice-covered areas, could further enhance ML model performance for PBLHT estimation across varied geographic regions.

Zhang, Damao [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Chain-End Controlled Depolymerization Selectivity in α,α-Disubstituted Propionate PHAs with Dual Closed-Loop Recycling and Record-High Melting Temperature

In this article, within the large poly(3-hydroxyalkanoate) (PHA) family, C3 propionates are much less studied than C4 butyrates, with the exception of α,α-disubstituted propionate PHAs, particularly poly(3-hydroxy-2,2-dimethylpropionate), P3H(Me) 2 P, due to its high melting temperature (T m ~ 230 °C) and crystallinity (~76%). However, inefficient synthetic routes to its monomer 2,2-dimethylpropiolactone [(Me) 2 PL] and extreme brittleness of P3H(Me) 2 P largely hinder its broad applications. Here, we introduce simple, efficient step-growth polycondensation (SGP) of a hydroxyacid or methyl ester to afford P3H(Me) 2 P with low to medium molar mass, which is then utilized to produce lactones through base-catalyzed depolymerization. The ring-opening polymerization (ROP) of the 4-membered lactone leads to high-molar-mass P3H(Me) 2 P, which can be depolymerized by hydrolysis to the hydroxyacid in 99% yield or methanolysis to the hydroxyester in 91% yield, achieving closed-loop recycling via both SGP and ROP routes. Intriguingly, the chain end of the SGP-P3H(Me) 2 P determines the depolymerization selectivity toward 4- or 12-membered lactone formation, while both can be repolymerized back to P3H(Me) 2 P. Through the formation of copolymers P3H(Me/R) 2 P (R = Et, n Pr), PHAs with high tensile strength and ductility, coupled with high barriers to water vapor and oxygen, have been created. Notably, the PHA structure–property study led to P3H( n Pr) 2 P with a record-high T m of 266 °C within the PHA family.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluation of CloudSat Radiative Kernels Using ARM and CERES Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis

Despite the widespread use of the radiative kernel technique for studying radiative feedbacks and radiative forcings, there has not been any systematic, observation-based validation of the radiative kernel method. Here, we utilize observed and reanalyzed radiative fluxes and atmospheric profiles from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and ERA5 reanalysis to assess a set of observation-based radiative kernels from CloudSat for six ARM sites. The CloudSat radiative kernels, convoluted with the ERA5 state variables, can almost perfectly reconstruct the monthly anomalies of shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes in ERA5 at the surface (SFC) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) with correlations significantly being greater than 0.95. The biases of kernel-estimated flux anomalies calculated using the ARM-observed state variables can be more than twice as large when compared with the ARM-observed surface flux anomalies and Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) observed anomalies at the TOA. Generally, clouds contribute to most (>60%) of the variance of flux anomalies at Southern Great Plain (SGP), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), and surface albedo dominates (>69%) the variance of SW flux anomalies at North Slope of Alaska (NSA). Furthermore, the radiative kernels exhibit the lowest correlation (r ~ [0.55,0.85]) when reconstructing SFC LW flux anomalies at SGP, TWP, and ENA, whose biases are related to the possibility that the kernels may not fully capture the characteristics associated with MJO and ENSO at TWP and the presence of clouds at SGP and ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimation of Possible Primary Biological Particle Emissions and Rupture Events at the Southern Great Plains ARM Site

We use 10 years of data from the Department of Energy (DoE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) United States Southern Great Plains (SGP) site with nearby regional pollen and fungal spore measurements to indirectly estimate the seasonal influence of these two primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP). We estimate possible primary emissions of larger PBAP and PBAP rupture events, which form submicron organic aerosol during precipitation or high relative humidity. High pollen counts at two urban stations near SGP occur during late winter/early spring (day of year (DOY) 50–120) and late summer (DOY 240–310). Around 4–19 days per year show possible pollen events (PPE) when near-surface lidar observations of daily linear particle depolarization ratio >0.1 are coincident with high organic aerosol fraction. For PPE days with rainfall, aerosol size distribution observations show enhanced submicron particle concentrations consistent with pollen rupture events. For fungal spores, high fungal spore counts occur during late spring/early summer (DOY 110–195) and late summer/autumn (DOY 220–340). Based on size distribution observations, up to 7% of days have possible fungal spore rupture events (PFE) with higher aerosol number count specifically over the range expected for fungal spore fragment mobility diameter (20–50 nm). These short-lived PFE correlate with rainfall or occur after prolonged exposure to rainfall (e.g., >10 h). While the SGP site lacks direct measurements of bioaerosol and large particle sizes, this analysis suggests that PBAP primary emissions and rupture events could occur about 32 days per year, representing an important component of the aerosol budget during seasonal emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Trends in Downwelling Longwave Radiance Over the Southern Great Plains

Downwelling longwave radiation is an important part of the surface energy budget. Spectral trends in the downwelling longwave radiance (DLR) provide insight into the radiative drivers of climate change. In this research, we process and analyze a 23-year DLR record measured by the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Two AERIs were deployed at SGP with an overlapping observation period of about 10 years, which allows us to examine the consistency and accuracy of the measurements and to account for discrepancies between them due to errors associated with the instruments themselves. We then analyzed the all-sky radiance trends in DLR, which are associated with the surface warming trend at SGP during this same period and also the complex changes in meteorological conditions. For instance, the observed radiance in the CO2 absorption band follows closely the near-surface air temperature variations. The significant positive radiance trends in weak absorption channels, such as in the wings of the CO 2 band and in the weak absorption channels in the H 2 O vibration-rotational band, show earlier detectability of climate change. The magnitude of the radiance trend uncertainty in the DLR record mainly results from internal climate variability rather than from measurement error, which highlights the importance of continuing the DLR spectral measurements to unambiguously detect and attribute climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Grid Spacing Sensitivities of Simulated Mid-Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Convective Gray Zone

The main objective of this study is to observationally constrain processes in tropical and midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and to use these constraints for model evaluation. To accomplish this, we leverage MCS observations collected at the U.S. DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma and ARM's mobile GoAmazon2014/15 site in Manaus, Brazil (MAO). We simulate 13 and 11 of these observed MCSs at the SGP and MAO site, respectively, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 12-, 4-, 2-, and 1-km horizontal grid spacing. Observations from radiosondes, surface meteorology, and radar wind profilers are used to characterize MCS properties, such as MCS timing and location, cold pools, and convective drafts, and evaluate these simulations. SGP cases are found in better agreement with observations than MAO cases, and when simulated at 2 km, outperform simulations at 1 km regarding the timing of MCS overpass and the accuracy of surface variable trends. MAO simulations suggest a consistent improvement in model accuracy with increasing model resolution in depicting the downdraft structure, the timing of MCSs, and the surface variables changes, except for the latter two metrics at 2 km. Deficiencies are still evident at km-scales, suggesting the need for higher resolution to simulate tropical MCSs. Overall, location-dependent improvements in MCS representation are obtained with the increasing model resolution, prompting the evaluation of sub-km scale simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗