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IEA/HPT Annex 53 Advanced Cooling/Refrigeration Technologies Development – Task 1 Report

Air conditioning (AC) and refrigeration systems account for a large share of today’s global energy consumption, and this demand is expected to increase sharply over the next 50 years unless actions are taken to ameliorate the increase. The adoption of AC in developed countries increased rapidly in the twentieth century, and the twenty-first century is expected to see increased adoption in developing countries—especially those with hotter climates and large, growing populations, such as India, China, Brazil, and Middle Eastern and African nations. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that by 2050, AC energy consumption levels will increase by 4.3 times over the 2010 levels for non-Organization of Economic Coordination and Development (OECD) countries vs. only 1.5 times for OECD countries (Figure 1).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transiciones a Energia 100% Renovable (PR100): Informe resumido [Spanish Translation of Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) (Summary Report)]

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) is a comprehensive analysis based on extensive stakeholder input of possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. In this summary report of the PR100 Final Report, we describe the background and motivation behind the study, provide an overview, summarize results, highlight key findings, and outline implementation actions for stakeholders to take in the immediate-, near-, mid-, and long-term to achieve Puerto Rico’s energy system goals. For the English version of this report, see NREL/TP-6A20-88615 (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy24osti/88615.pdf).

100% renewable energy target↗

Melatonin in humans: Possible involvement in SIDS, and use in contraceptives

Relatively few tools exist for assessing the possible involvement of melatonin in normal or abnormal physiologlcal and behavioral states. One cannot perform the classic ablation experiment of endocrinologists by cavalierly removing the human's pineal, nor derive the same effect pharmacologically by administering a drug which blocks the actions of the indole on its receptors (because no such drugs, demonstrated to work in humans, exist). About all that can be done is to administer the melatonin and see what happens, or measure its levels in a body fluid and determine whether its temporal patterns track those of the physiological or behavioral variable being examined. The clinical state of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS) which apparently is associated with abnormalities in melatonin concentrations within body fluids obtained at autopsy is described. New data which suggest that exogenous melatonin has sufficient antigonadal potency to allow it to replace estrogen and, acting in combination with norethisterone, serve as a useful contraceptive agent is summarized.

Wurtman, Richard J.↗

Using Apex To Construct CPM-GOMS Models

process for automatically generating computational models of human/computer interactions as well as graphical and textual representations of the models has been built on the conceptual foundation of a method known in the art as CPM-GOMS. This method is so named because it combines (1) the task decomposition of analysis according to an underlying method known in the art as the goals, operators, methods, and selection (GOMS) method with (2) a model of human resource usage at the level of cognitive, perceptual, and motor (CPM) operations. CPM-GOMS models have made accurate predictions about behaviors of skilled computer users in routine tasks, but heretofore, such models have been generated in a tedious, error-prone manual process. In the present process, CPM-GOMS models are generated automatically from a hierarchical task decomposition expressed by use of a computer program, known as Apex, designed previously to be used to model human behavior in complex, dynamic tasks. An inherent capability of Apex for scheduling of resources automates the difficult task of interleaving the cognitive, perceptual, and motor resources that underlie common task operators (e.g., move and click mouse). The user interface of Apex automatically generates Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT) charts, which enable modelers to visualize the complex parallel behavior represented by a model. Because interleaving and the generation of displays to aid visualization are automated, it is now feasible to construct arbitrarily long sequences of behaviors. The process was tested by using Apex to create a CPM-GOMS model of a relatively simple human/computer-interaction task and comparing the time predictions of the model and measurements of the times taken by human users in performing the various steps of the task. The task was to withdraw $80 in cash from an automated teller machine (ATM). For the test, a Visual Basic mockup of an ATM was created, with a provision for input from (and measurement of the performance of) the user via a mouse. The times predicted by the automatically generated model turned out to approximate the measured times fairly well (see figure). While these results are promising, there is need for further development of the process. Moreover, it will also be necessary to test other, more complex models: The actions required of the user in the ATM task are too sequential to involve substantial parallelism and interleaving and, hence, do not serve as an adequate test of the unique strength of CPM-GOMS models to accommodate parallelism and interleaving.

John, Bonnie↗

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

extreme weather events↗

IMPLEMENTING THE NFPA 805 PROCESS: Observations of a Technical Reviewer

In June 2004 the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) amended its fire protection requirements to permit existing nuclear power reactor licensees to voluntarily adopt fire protection requirements contained in National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) Standard 805. NFPA 805 is a performance-based standard for nuclear power plant fire protection that is an alternative to the deterministic, prescriptive fire protection requirements, such as 10 CFR 50 Appendix R, that was issued in 1980. One aspect of implementing NFPA 805 is that the licensee adopts the performance goals, objectives, and criteria for nuclear safety specified in the Standard. These goals, objectives, and criteria can be met through the implementation of deterministic approaches or performance-based approaches, including engineering analyses, probabilistic risk assessment, and fire modeling. Licensees voluntarily adopting the fire protection requirements in NFPA 805 must submit a license amendment request (LAR) to the NRC. The LAR provides the new proposed fire protection licensing basis, including the methodology and results of required evaluations and analyses that show how the NFPA 805 performance criteria are met. As of August 2014, licensees have submitted LARs for 26 nuclear power plants, representing 42 nuclear reactor units. Of these, 7 nuclear power plants, representing 10 nuclear reactor units, have been issued a safety evaluation (SE) by the NRC approving transition of their fire protection licensing basis to one that complies with NFPA 805. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) supports the NRC staff’s technical review of the LARs in the areas of fundamental fire protection, safe shutdown analysis, and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). PNNL, of course, cannot speak for the nuclear industry and its choice of implementation strategies or the NRC staff’s assessment of the approaches being taken to adopt NFPA 805. However, as a reviewer of the technical details of these submittals, PNNL is in a position to observe the array of implementation tactics taken in these submittals, and observe different ways licensees are making the NFPA 805 process work. For example, we see differences in how fire areas are being transitioned, the kinds of plant modifications being implemented, the changes being made to plant procedures, the number and types of recovery actions being credited, and the kinds and extent of detailed modeling being performed in support of the Fire PRAs. As a caveat, we note that it is probably too early to comment on the overall success or limitations of the NFPA 805 process or provide lessons learned for the future. Furthermore, it is not our intention to endorse any particular approach taken in a submittal over another or to critique the industry or the regulator. Rather our goal in this paper is to summarize a set of interesting and useful differences across submittals that may provide context for further future discussions about what we (i.e., reviewers, industry, and regulators) have learned in being part of the NFPA process; and how to best use that information to inform future NFPA 805 activities or other risk-informed endeavors.

NFPA 805, PRA, PSA, probabilistic risk assessment,↗

G(sup 4)FET Implementations of Some Logic Circuits

Some logic circuits have been built and demonstrated to work substantially as intended, all as part of a continuing effort to exploit the high degrees of design flexibility and functionality of the electronic devices known as G(sup 4)FETs and described below. These logic circuits are intended to serve as prototypes of more complex advanced programmable-logicdevice-type integrated circuits, including field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). In comparison with prior FPGAs, these advanced FPGAs could be much more efficient because the functionality of G(sup 4)FETs is such that fewer discrete components are needed to perform a given logic function in G(sup 4)FET circuitry than are needed perform the same logic function in conventional transistor-based circuitry. The underlying concept of using G(sup 4)FETs as building blocks of programmable logic circuitry was also described, from a different perspective, in G(sup 4)FETs as Universal and Programmable Logic Gates (NPO-41698), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 31, No. 7 (July 2007), page 44. A G(sup 4)FET can be characterized as an accumulation-mode silicon-on-insulator (SOI) metal oxide/semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) featuring two junction field-effect transistor (JFET) gates. The structure of a G(sup 4)FET (see Figure 1) is the same as that of a p-channel inversion-mode SOI MOSFET with two body contacts on each side of the channel. The top gate (G1), the substrate emulating a back gate (G2), and the junction gates (JG1 and JG2) can be biased independently of each other and, hence, each can be used to independently control some aspects of the conduction characteristics of the transistor. The independence of the actions of the four gates is what affords the enhanced functionality and design flexibility of G(sup 4)FETs. The present G(sup 4)FET logic circuits include an adjustable-threshold inverter, a real-time-reconfigurable logic gate, and a dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) cell (see Figure 2). The configuration of the adjustable-threshold inverter is similar to that of an ordinary complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) inverter except that an NMOSFET (a MOSFET having an n-doped channel and a p-doped Si substrate) is replaced by an n-channel G(sup 4)FET

Mojarradi, Mohammad↗

The Transportation Leapfrog: Using Smart Phones to Collect Driving Data and Model Fuel Economy in India

Car ownership in India is expected to skyrocket in the coming decades, strongly driven by rising incomes. This phenomenon provides unprecedented opportunities for automakers and equally unprecedented social and environmental challenges. Policymakers, urban planners and civil society see this car boom leading to an explosion in problems related to congestion, infrastructure, air pollution, safety, higher oil imports and climate change. For all these stakeholders to take effective action, good data on how people use their cars, their demand for mobility and their behavior in mobility is essential. Unfortunately, there is very little data on the Indian transport sector as a whole and virtually none on real-world vehicle performance and use. The rapid development of high quality mobile telecommunications infrastructure provides India with the opportunity to leapfrog the West in cheaply collecting vast amounts of useful data from transportation. In this paper, we describe a pilot project in which we use commercial smart phone apps to collect per second car driving data from the city of Pune, instantly upload it through 3G and prepare it for analysis using advanced noise filtering algorithms for less than $1 per day per car. We then use our data in an Autonomie simulation to show that India’s currently planned fuel economy test procedures will result in over-estimates of fuel economy of approximately 35% for a typical Indian car when it is operated in real world conditions. Supporting better driving cycle development is just one of many applications for smart phone derived data in Indian transportation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Using SCOR as a Supply Chain Management Framework for Government Agency Contract Requirements

Enterprise Supply Chain Management consists of: Specifying suppliers to support inter-program and inter-agency efforts. Optimizing inventory levels and locations throughout the supply chain. Executing corrective actions to improve quality and lead time issues throughout the supply chain. Processing reported data to calculate and make visible supply chain performance (provide information for decisions and actions). Ensuring the right hardware and information is provided at the right time and in the right place. Monitoring the industrial base while developing, producing, operating and retiring a system. Seeing performance deep in the supply chain that could indicate issues affecting system availability and readiness.

Paxton, Joe↗

Case study on climate change effects and food security in Southeast Asia

Agriculture, a cornerstone of human civilization, faces rising challenges from climate change, resource limitations, and stagnating yields. Precise crop production forecasts are crucial for shaping trade policies, development strategies, and humanitarian initiatives. This study introduces a comprehensive machine learning framework designed to predict crop production. We leverage CMIP5 climate projections under a moderate carbon emission scenario to evaluate the future suitability of agricultural lands and incorporate climatic data, historical agricultural trends, and fertilizer usage to project yield changes. Our integrated approach forecasts significant regional variations in crop production across Southeast Asia by 2028, identifying potential cropland utilization. Specifically, the cropland area in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam is projected to decline by more than 10% if no action is taken, and there is potential to mitigate that loss. Moreover, rice production is projected to decline by 19% in Viet Nam and 7% in Thailand, while the Philippines may see a 5% increase compared to 2021 levels. Our findings underscore the critical impacts of climate change and human activities on agricultural productivity, offering essential insights for policy-making and fostering international cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Intelligent Pilot Aids for Flight Re-Planning in Emergencies

Experimental studies were conducted with pilots to investigate the attributes of automation that would be appropriate for aiding pilots in emergencies. The specific focus of this year was on methods of mitigating automation brittleness. Brittleness occurs when the automatic system is used in circumstances it was not designed for, causing it to choose an incorrect action or make an inaccurate decision for the situation. Brittleness is impossible to avoid since it is impossible to predict every potential situation the automatic system will be exposed to over its life. However, operators are always ultimately responsible for the actions and decisions of the automation they are monitoring or using, which means they must evaluate the automation's decisions and actions for accuracy. As has been pointed out, this is a difficult thing for human operators to do. There have been various suggestions as to how to aid operators with this evaluation. In the study described in this report we studied how presentation of contextual information about an automatic system's decision might impact the ability of the human operators to evaluate that decision. This study focused on the planning of emergency descents. Fortunately, emergencies (e.g., mechanical or electrical malfunction, on-board fire, and medical emergency) happen quite rarely. However, they can be catastrophic when they do. For all predictable or conceivable emergencies, pilots have emergency procedures that they are trained on, but those procedures often end with 'determine suitable airport and land as quickly as possible.' Planning an emergency descent to an unplanned airport is a difficult task, particularly under the time pressures of an emergency. Automatic decision aids could be very efficient at the task of determining an appropriate airport and calculating an optimal trajectory to that airport. This information could be conveyed to the pilot through an emergency descent procedure listing all of the actions necessary to safely land the plane. However, there is still the potential problem of brittleness. This study examined the impact of contextual information in presentations of emergency descent procedures to see if they might impact the pilot's evaluation of the feasibility of the presented procedure. The study and its results are described in detail.

Pritchett, Amy R.↗

Aerobot Autonomy Architecture

An architecture for autonomous operation of an aerobot (i.e., a robotic blimp) to be used in scientific exploration of planets and moons in the Solar system with an atmosphere (such as Titan and Venus) is undergoing development. This architecture is also applicable to autonomous airships that could be flown in the terrestrial atmosphere for scientific exploration, military reconnaissance and surveillance, and as radio-communication relay stations in disaster areas. The architecture was conceived to satisfy requirements to perform the following functions: a) Vehicle safing, that is, ensuring the integrity of the aerobot during its entire mission, including during extended communication blackouts. b) Accurate and robust autonomous flight control during operation in diverse modes, including launch, deployment of scientific instruments, long traverses, hovering or station-keeping, and maneuvers for touch-and-go surface sampling. c) Mapping and self-localization in the absence of a global positioning system. d) Advanced recognition of hazards and targets in conjunction with tracking of, and visual servoing toward, targets, all to enable the aerobot to detect and avoid atmospheric and topographic hazards and to identify, home in on, and hover over predefined terrain features or other targets of scientific interest. The architecture is an integrated combination of systems for accurate and robust vehicle and flight trajectory control; estimation of the state of the aerobot; perception-based detection and avoidance of hazards; monitoring of the integrity and functionality ("health") of the aerobot; reflexive safing actions; multi-modal localization and mapping; autonomous planning and execution of scientific observations; and long-range planning and monitoring of the mission of the aerobot. The prototype JPL aerobot (see figure) has been tested extensively in various areas in the California Mojave desert.

Elfes, Alberto↗

Data Validation Package, April and June 2016 Groundwater and Surface Water Sampling at the Gunnison, Colorado, Processing Site, October 2016

This event included annual sampling of groundwater and surface water locations at the Gunnison, Colorado, Processing Site. Sampling and analyses were conducted as specified in Sampling and Analysis Plan for US Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management Sites (LMS/PRO/S04351, continually updated, http://energy.gov/lm/downloads/sampling-and­ analysis-plan-us-department-energy-office-legacy-management-sites). Samples were collected from 28 monitoring wells, three domestic wells, and six surface locations in April at the processing site as specified in the draft 2010 Ground Water Compliance Action Plan for the Gunnison, Colorado, Processing Site. Planned monitoring locations are shown in Attachment 1, Sampling and Analysis Work Order. Domestic wells 0476 and 0477 were sampled in June because the homes were unoccupied in April, and the wells were not in use. Duplicate samples were collected from locations 0126, 0477, and 0780. One equipment blank was collected during this sampling event. Water levels were measured at all monitoring wells that were sampled. See Attachment 2, Trip Reports for additional details. The analytical data and associated qualifiers can be viewed in environmental database reports and are also available for viewing with dynamic mapping via the GEMS (Geospatial Environmental Mapping System) website at http://gems.lm.doe.gov/#. No issues were identified during the data validation process that requires additional action or follow-up. An assessment of anomalous data is included in Attachment 3. Interpretation and presentation of results, including an assessment ofthe natural flushing compliance strategy, will be reported in the upcoming 2016 Verification Monitoring Report. U.S.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lunar e-Library: Putting Space History to Work

As NASA plans and implements the Vision for Space Exploration, managers, engineers, and scientists need historically important information that is readily available and easily accessed. The Lunar e-Library - a searchable collection of 1100 electronic (.PDF) documents - makes it easy to find critical technical data and lessons learned and put space history knowledge in action. The Lunar e-Library, a DVD knowledge database, was developed by NASA to shorten research time and put knowledge at users' fingertips. Funded by NASA's Space Environments and Effects (SEE) Program headquartered at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and the MSFC Materials and Processes Laboratory, the goal of the Lunar e- Library effort was to identify key lessons learned from Apollo and other lunar programs and missions and to provide technical information from those programs in an easy-to-use format. The SEE Program began distributing the Lunar e-Library knowledge database in 2006. This paper describes the Lunar e-Library development process (including a description of the databases and resources used to acquire the documents) and the contents of the DVD product, demonstrates its usefulness with focused searches, and provides information on how to obtain this free resource.

McMahan, Tracy A.↗

Modeling and Simulation of an UAS Collision Avoidance Systems

This paper describes a Modeling and Simulation of an Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Collision Avoidance System, capable of representing different types of scenarios for UAS collision avoidance. Commercial and military piloted aircraft currently utilize various systems for collision avoidance such as Traffic Alert and Collision A voidance System (TCAS), Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), Radar and ElectroOptical and Infrared Sensors (EO-IR). The integration of information from these systems is done by the pilot in the aircraft to determine the best course of action. In order to operate optimally in the National Airspace System (NAS) UAS have to work in a similar or equivalent manner to a piloted aircraft by applying the principle of "detect-see and avoid" (DSA) to other air traffic. Hence, we have taken these existing sensor technologies into consideration in order to meet the challenge of researching the modeling and simulation of an approximated DSA system. A Schematic Model for a UAS Collision Avoidance System (CAS) has been developed ina closed loop block diagram for that purpose. We have found that the most suitable software to carry out this task is the Satellite Tool Kit (STK) from Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). We have used the Aircraft Mission Modeler (AMM) for modeling and simulation of a scenario where a UAS is placed on a possible collision path with an initial intruder and then with a second intruder, but is able to avoid them by executing a right tum maneuver and then climbing. Radars have also been modeled with specific characteristics for the UAS and both intruders. The software provides analytical, graphical user interfaces and data controlling tools which allow the operator to simulate different conditions. Extensive simulations have been carried out which returned excellent results.

Oliveros, Edgardo V.↗

Kennedy Space Center Spaceport Analysis

Until the Shuttle Atlantis' final landing on July 21, 2011, Kennedy Space Center (KSC) served as NASA's main spaceport, which is a launch and landing facility for rockets and spacecraft that are attempting to enter orbit. Many of the facilities at KSC were created to assist the Shuttle Program. One of the most important and used facilities is the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), This was the main landing area for the return of the shuttle after her mission in space. · However, the SLF has also been used for a number of other projects including straight-line testing by Gibbs Racing, weather data collection by NOAA, and an airfield for the KSC helicopters. This runway is three miles long with control tower at midfield and a fire department located at the end in care of an emergency. This facility, which was part of the great space race, will continue to be used for historical events as Kennedy begins to commercialize its facilities. KSC continues to be an important spaceport to the government, and it will transform into an important spaceport for the commercial industry as well. During my internship at KSC's Center Planning and Development Directorate, I had the opportunity to be a part of the negotiation team working on the agreement for Space Florida to control the Shuttle Landing Facility. This gave me the opportunity to learn about all the changes that are occurring here at Kennedy Space Center. Through various meetings, I discovered the Master Plan and its focus is to transform the existing facilities that were primarily used for the Shuttle Program, to support government operations and commercial flights in the future. This. idea is also in a new strategic business plan and completion of a space industry market analysis. All of these different documentations were brought to my attention and I. saw how they came together in the discussions of transitioning the SLF to a commercial operator, Space Florida. After attending meetings and partaking in discussions for the SLF Agreement, I formed the idea of a Spaceport Analysis as my over internship project. As previously stated, I had the opportunity to sit in on the market analysis meetings and read through the analysis itself. I suggested the creation of a Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats (SWOT) analysis, which allows an individual to see an overview of the company's strengths and weaknesses alongside any industry opportunities and threats. After discussions with the lead writer of the new strategic business plan and getting approval, I took the action upon myself and created the Kennedy Space Center SWOT Analysis.

Wary, Samantha A.↗

Hallmarks of the magnetic field in the solar atmosphere - Structure, evolution, heating, and flaring

Recent observations of the solar magnetic field and its effects on the solar atmosphere are discussed, with an emphasis on large-scale active regions and their implications for the fine-scale magnetic structure and for activity in the so-called quiet regions. Sample magnetograms, sunlight images, H-alpha images, X-ray images, and spectroheliograms are presented and characterized in detail, and the form and action of the magnetic field in flares are considered. It is pointed out that simultaneous observations of all levels (from the photosphere to the corona) at 100-km (about 100-marcsec) resolution are needed to see the extent of fields looping into the corona and understand their structure and activity; large space-based observatories would be required.

Moore, Ronald L.↗

Testing airplanes in flight: determining position of resultant of action of air and longitudinal stability of an airplane at different angles of attack

Measurements made during flight with the triple recording device which gives the horizontal and vertical speeds of an airplane and the angle it makes with the horizon, render it possible to calculate its lift, its drag, and R the resultant of the action of the air both in magnitude and direction, but with these data alone, it is impossible to determine the position of this resultant in the plane of symmetry of the airplane. We will also see how we may determine the position of R during flight and then calculate the variations in the stability of an airplane.

STABILITY, LONGITUDINAL↗