A note on potential gains in precision of radiation risk estimates from joint analysis
Not Available
Sposto, Richard↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Risk analysis”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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DiffESM: Conditional Emulation of Temperature and Precipitation in Earth System Models With 3D Diffusion Models
Earth system models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the interaction between human activities and the Earth's climate. However, the computational demands of ESMs often limit the number of simulations that can be run, hindering the robust analysis of risks associated with extreme weather events. While low-cost climate emulators have emerged as an alternative to emulate ESMs and enable rapid analysis of future climate, many of these emulators only provide output on at most a monthly frequency. This temporal resolution is insufficient for analyzing events that require daily characterization, such as heat waves or heavy precipitation. We propose using diffusion models, a class of generative deep learning models, to effectively downscale ESM output from a monthly to a daily frequency. Trained on a handful of ESM realizations, reflecting a wide range of radiative forcings, our DiffESM model takes monthly mean precipitation or temperature as input, and is capable of producing daily values with statistical characteristics close to ESM output. Combined with a low-cost emulator providing monthly means, this approach requires only a small fraction of the computational resources needed to run a large ensemble. We evaluate model behavior using a number of extreme metrics, showing that DiffESM closely matches the spatio-temporal behavior of the ESM output it emulates in terms of the frequency and spatial characteristics of phenomena such as heat waves, dry spells, or rainfall intensity.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Firmware Tampering Detection in Heavy-Duty Vehicles through J1939 CAN Analysis
Modern heavy-duty vehicles rely on complex networks of Electronic Control Units (ECUs) that communicate using the J1939 protocol. While this system makes it easier to update and configure vehicle components, it also opens the door to serious cybersecurity risks if not properly secured. This work investigates the potential for firmware tampering through the J1939 communication protocol, which enables ECU configuration and reprogramming over the Controller Area Network (CAN) bus. By monitoring CAN traffic during legitimate maintenance operations and reverse-engineering OEM diagnostic software, we identified common and proprietary J1939 message identifiers, authentication patterns, and vulnerabilities within Unified Diagnostic Services (UDS). These findings demonstrate that inadequate authentication mechanisms can allow malicious actors to alter ECU firmware or disable safety functions, posing severe operational and safety risks. Our analysis contributes to the development of vehicle intrusion detection systems capable of recognizing abnormal reprogramming activity and future firmware fingerprinting methods to verify software integrity across ECUs. This work highlights the importance of standardizing secure firmware authentication across manufacturers to strengthen cyber resilience in heavy-duty vehicle systems.
33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
A Kinetic Model-Driven Techno-Economic Analysis of Plastic Pyrolysis: Linking Process Dynamics to Economic Viability
This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.
petrochemicals↗
An Integrated Framework for Risk Assessment of Safety-related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants: Methodology Advancement and Application
This report documents activities performed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) during fiscal year (FY) 2024 for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, Risk Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway, Digital Instrumentation and Control (DI&C) Risk Assessment project. The goal of the RISA Pathway is to optimize safety margins and minimize uncertainties to achieve economic efficiencies while maintaining high levels of safety. This is accomplished by providing scientific basis to better represent safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety, and by developing new technologies that reduce operating costs. The research efforts for FY 2024 encompass methodology refinement and exploration. The efforts include: (1) The implementation of a natural language processing tool to expedite key aspects of the reliability analysis methods developed by INL; (2) advances to support intersystem CCF analysis by providing guidance for and identification of coupling mechanisms that may contribute to CCF; (3) the investigation of how generative artificial intelligence tools can aid in hazard analysis and diversity and defense in depth (i.e., D3) assessments; (4) Industry collaboration, allowing the demonstration of and INL's risk assessment tools to support risk assessment of DI&C systems at early and late stages of development; (4) a roadmap for the development of a software for each of INL's risk assessment tools; (5) The development of a theory and methodology manual for a risk quantification methodology; (6) the development of a reliability analysis for machine learning (ML)-integrated control systems.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing
Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing
Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.
22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Building a predictive model for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon dosimetry in organotypically cultured human bronchial epithelial cells using benzo[ a ]pyrene
The airway epithelium is a primary route of exposure for inhaled toxicants, and organotypic culture models represent an important advancement for toxicity testing compared to simple in vitro models that may lack metabolic capability and multicellular structure/communication associated with the bronchial epithelium in vivo. A quantitative understanding of chemical dosimetry is key for interpreting and extrapolating study results; however, dosimetry is understudied in organotypic models limiting ability to predict toxicity. We developed a dosimetry model for primary human bronchial epithelial cells (HBECs) cultured at the air-liquid interface (ALI) using benzo[a]pyrene (BAP), a representative polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon. Dose and time course evaluation of metabolite formation and enzyme activity and expression were utilized to parameterize a cellular dosimetry model to improve the utility of ALI-HBECs for assessing chemical risk. Dosimetry analysis demonstrated absorption of BAP into cells and an increase in Phase 1 and 2 metabolites over time that correlated with regulation of metabolizing enzymes. BAP was cleared from cells by 48 h after exposure, and the primary metabolites generated in ALI-HBECs were BAP-3-phenol, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8-dihydrodiol, BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol, BAP-7,8,9,10-tetrol, BAP-3-phenol-glucuronide, BAP-4,5-dihydrodiol-glucuronide, and BAP-9,10-dihydrodiol-glucuronide. The resulting dosimetry model described BAP and 7,8-dihydrodiol toxicokinetics in ALI-HBECs and suggested active excretion of 7,8-dihydrodiol. Overall, this study demonstrates metabolic competency of ALI-HBECs for BAP metabolism, demonstrates the usefulness of complex in vitro systems for human-relevant toxicity data, and exhibits how in silico models can be utilized for understanding the dosimetry of test compounds to aid in in vitro to human extrapolation of toxicity data for risk assessments.
Benzo[a]pyrene↗
Assessing Seismic Risk for CO2 Geologic Storage: Comparative Analysis of the Delaware Basin and Basin and Range Province Projects
ABSTRACT: Effective management of induced seismicity is critical for safe and sustainable CO2 storage. This study evaluates fault slippage risks in the Delaware Basin (Texas) and Basin and Range Province (Utah), integrating geological, operational, and geomechanical parameters to assess fault stability and seismic hazard mitigation. In the Delaware Basin, two sites were analyzed under an injection rate of 20,000 bbl/day over 25 years. One site showed low fault slip risk, while the other exhibited higher reactivation potential due to proximity to critically stressed faults. Sensitivity analysis revealed that increased pore pressure significantly heightened slip potential, highlighting the necessity of precise pressure control and real-time monitoring. In the Basin and Range Province, fault stability was evaluated at Neck of the Desert, Escalante Desert, Parowan, and Beaver sites under injection rates of 8,750 bbl/day per site over 30 years. Minimal fault slip risk was observed at Neck of the Desert and Escalante Desert sites, whereas Parowan and Beaver sites exhibited elevated slip potential due to semi-critically stressed faults sensitive to modest pore pressure increases. The findings demonstrate that fault slippage analysis, combined with sensitivity analysis of pore pressure and friction coefficients, is essential for understanding seismic risks. Continuous monitoring, adaptive injection management, and rigorous geomechanical analysis are key strategies for minimizing induced seismicity in CO2 sequestration projects.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Dynamic Human Reliability Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool
Not Available
Park, Jooyoung↗
Addressing adoption barriers and accelerating market deployment of new technologies
Adoption of emerging technologies can be difficult, but can be improved by using a framework that incorporates the relative environmental, social, and economic performance of that new technology, such as for enzymatic recycling of a polymer.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Wear of Wave Energy Converters Mooring Lines Belts
Using a belt as a replacement for a rope on a rotary power take-offs (PTOs) system has become more common for wave energy converters, improving cyclic bend over sheave performance with a smaller bending thickness for belts. However, the service life predictions of PTOs are a major concern in design, because belt performance under harsh underwater environments is largely less studied. Here, in this work, the effect of fleet and twist angles on wear life is being investigated both experimentally and numerically. Two three-dimensional equivalent static finite element models are constructed to evaluate the complex stress state of polyurethane-steel belts around steel drums. The first is to capture the response of the experimental investigation performed on the wear life, and the second to predict the wear life of an existing functional PTO. The results show a significant effect for fleet and twist angles on stress concentrations and estimated service life.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Virtual Power Plant Architecture and Resilient Design
Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) represent a fundamental shift in electric grid operations, aggregating distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar panels and battery storage to deliver utility-scale grid services traditionally provided by centralized power plants. This report examines the unique architectural, operational, and digital assurance considerations that distinguish VPPs from conventional utility infrastructure as they scale from pilot projects to mainstream deployment across the United States. While VPPs offer significant opportunities for grid modernization and enhanced flexibility, their distributed, multi-stakeholder architecture introduces distinct security challenges that differ fundamentally from traditional generation facilities. The analysis identifies risks in VPP operations, including device-level security gaps, platform vulnerabilities, and communication protocol weaknesses that create expanded attack surfaces compared to centralized power plants. Through examination of real-world incidents and emerging threat patterns, the report demonstrates how some VPPs' reliance on consumer-owned devices, public internet infrastructure, and complex vendor ecosystems require new approaches to digital assurance and operational security. The findings provide practical guidance for utilities, regulators, and aggregators to implement robust security frameworks and operational best practices essential for maintaining grid reliability as VPP deployment accelerates under the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222 and related regulatory initiatives.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
IEEE PES GM Poster - Cyber-Informed Engineering Approach to Mitigating BESS Supply Chain Concerns
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasingly important to meet the needs of grid resilience and reliability. BESS provide critical grid services, maintaining stability of the grid with increased variable conditions. However, there are significant geopolitical and security concerns regarding their operation in critical infrastructure, due to lack of a domestic supply chain and prevalence of foreign entity of concern (FEOC) components in BESS and associated inverter-based resources. The supply chain challenge is dually exacerbated by a lack of alternative suppliers who can meet the economic targets for energy delivery and a potentially adversarial supply chain. Solutions are needed to secure components, addressing mixed layers of risk and engineering controls. This paper presents a specific application of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles for BESS and recommends an alternative strategy to blocking the supply chain, ensuring that grid modernization targets can be met despite lack of a validated or secure supply chain. This study focuses on the United State (U.S.) use case, but the process can be applied globally to address supply chain security challenges. CIE practices represent the next step in functional assurance and risk mitigation, ensuring optimal resource allocation and enhancing security measures to safeguard the future of energy in the U.S. and beyond.
25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗
Important Human Actions for Advanced Reactors: Implications for Human Factors
As advanced reactor platforms continue to develop and gain traction in the energy sector there is a need for risk-informed, scalable regulations that match that progress. This is a core component of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s proposed Part 53 Rule Making; the Accelerating Deployment of Versatile, Advanced Nuclear for Clean Energy (ADVANCE) Act; and other efforts that seek to update nuclear power regulations. This paper covers one key aspect of that regulatory evolution: Important Human Actions (IHA). In this paper, we discuss how the understanding and definitions of IHAs have changed and what that means for human factors engagement through the process of developing these technologies. Instead of a narrow focus on control actions that led to an increase in core damage risk, the new focus is on IHAs is “wherever they occur.” What this means is that having a highly automated or passive safety system does not eliminate IHAs. Rather, it shifts the focus point to all the actions that enable these systems. Everything from maintenance, to design, to training can be considered an IHA and that dramatically shifts the efforts and level of engagement necessary for human factors to enable these technologies. We discuss the notions of risk-informed human factors that underpin these efforts, give several examples, and briefly describe the risk assessment methodologies that will be needed. In the past, IHAs were identified and then became a focus point of human factors engineering (HFE) activities to ensure a robust evaluation of the task was completed. The future is less clear. HFE for nuclear energy will need to evolve and become more integrated in technology development than ever before.
22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
De-Risking Exploration for Geothermal Plays in Magmatic Environments Through Open-Source Tools: An Open-Source Python Framework for 2D and 3D Play Fairway Analysis
The De-Risking Exploration for Geothermal Plays in Magmatic Environments (DEEPEN) project seeks to accelerate superhot geothermal development by reducing exploration risk through advanced open-source modeling tools. This work presents a novel Python-based framework, geoPFA, for conducting 2D and 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) tailored to superhot geothermal systems. Building on previous methodologies, the framework integrates thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical simulation outputs from TReactMech, resulting in improved representation of subsurface properties that are critical to superhot resource producibility. The workflow has been applied to the Nesjavellir field in Iceland, a candidate site for the third Iceland Deep Drilling Project's superhot production scenarios. This application demonstrates the value of modular, transparent, and extensible workflows for integrating geological, geophysical, and simulation-derived datasets in high-enthalpy environments. Preliminary results indicate favorable zones consistent with known hydrothermal activity and suggest possible upflow from the Hengill volcanic system. The geoPFA library is publicly available, offering a scalable and reproducible approach to geothermal exploration across varied geological contexts.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
A graph embedding‐based approach for automatic cyber‐physical power system risk assessment to prevent and mitigate threats at scale
Abstract Power systems are facing an increasing number of cyber incidents, potentially leading to damaging consequences to both physical and cyber aspects. However, the development of analytical methods for the study of large‐scale power infrastructures as cyber‐physical systems is still in its early stages. Drawing inspiration from machine‐learning techniques, the authors introduce a method inspired by the principles of graph embedding that is tailored for quantitative risk assessment and the exploration of possible mitigation strategies of large‐scale cyber‐physical power systems. The primary advantage of the graph embedding approach lies in its ability to generate numerous random walks on a graph, simulating potential access paths. Meanwhile, it enables capturing high‐dimensional structures in low‐dimensional spaces, facilitating advanced machine‐learning applications, and ensuring scalability and adaptability for comprehensive network analysis. By employing this graph embedding‐based approach, the authors present a structured and methodical framework for risk assessment in cyber‐physical systems. The proposed graph embedding‐based risk analysis framework aims to provide a more insightful perspective on cyber‐physical risk assessment and situation awareness for power systems. To validate and demonstrate its applicability, the method has been tested on two cyber‐physical power system models: the Western System Coordinating Council (WSCC) 9‐Bus System and the Illinois 200‐Bus System , thereby showing its advantages in enhancing the accuracy of risk analysis and comprehensiveness of situational awareness.
Sun, Shining↗
A Full-scale Demonstration of Pressurized Water Reactor Core Design Optimization using Multi-Cycle Optimization Methodology
The U.S. nuclear sector encounters a difficulty in upholding essential safety standards while also securing economic viability for continued operation. Safety stands as a pivotal factor across all facets of operations within light-water reactor nuclear power plants. Achieving economic feasibility alongside safety can be facilitated through the utilization of a risk-informed framework, exemplified by the ongoing development within the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy's LWRS Program. This initiative advocates for a diverse array of research and development endeavors aimed at optimizing both safety and economic efficacy within nuclear power plants, particularly pertinent as many plants contemplate second license renewals. The Risk-Informed Systems Analysis Pathway has two main goals: deploy methodologies and technologies that better represent safety margins and cost and safety factors and develop advanced applications that enable cost-effective plant operation. This report assesses the potential for resolving multi-cycle plant reload challenges through real-world scenarios utilizing the Plant ReLoad Optimization (PRLO) framework. This framework offers reactor core design developers analytic tools of reactor safety and fuel performance with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance core design solutions. Multi-objective genetic algorithm alongside acceleration techniques is explored as an enabling technology for improving fuel efficiency while upholding safety thresholds. The demonstration of multi-cycle core design optimization is performed. This report investigates the practical application of the PRLO platform in addressing real-world core design challenges, supporting AI efforts, and contrasting outcomes with those derived from heuristic or conventional algorithms.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗