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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

International Cybersecurity: Capabilities and Overview [Slides]

Innovations in clean energy technology are beginning to transform electric grids around the world. It is more important than ever to understand and improve the resiliency and security of the grid against natural and human disruptions as our energy systems become more distributed, intelligent, and interconnected. Through its advanced cybersecurity technical assistance portfolio, experts at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) work with international governments to support secure and resilient deployment of renewable energy assets and address grid interconnection challenges. Cybersecurity technical assistance is tailored to the needs of our international partners.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2009

Integrated Risk and Knowledge Management Program -- IRKM-P

The NASA Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) IRKM-P tightly couples risk management and knowledge management processes and tools to produce an effective "modern" work environment. IRKM-P objectives include: (1) to learn lessons from past and current programs (Apollo, Space Shuttle, and the International Space Station); (2) to generate and share new engineering design, operations, and management best practices through preexisting Continuous Risk Management (CRM) procedures and knowledge-management practices; and (3) to infuse those lessons and best practices into current activities. The conceptual framework of the IRKM-P is based on the assumption that risks highlight potential knowledge gaps that might be mitigated through one or more knowledge management practices or artifacts. These same risks also serve as cues for collection of knowledge particularly, knowledge of technical or programmatic challenges that might recur.

Lengyel, David M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sustainable Water Management: Understanding the Socioeconomic and Cultural Dimensions

With the pressing challenges of water scarcity and pollution, achieving sustainable water management is imperative for promoting long-term development. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the socio-economic and cultural factors that shape the sustainability of water management strategies in Brazil and Portugal. This study highlights various factors that influence water management, including robust legal frameworks, socio-economic disparities, cultural practices, agricultural water usage, knowledge sharing, public participation, climate change resilience, water scarcity risks, industrial water consumption, and urbanization. By conducting a SWOT analysis of water management strategies, this research synthesizes information through an extensive literature review, encompassing the legal frameworks, policies, and implemented strategies in both countries. Additionally, it investigates comparative studies among Brazil, Portugal, and other European nations to facilitate the exchange of knowledge and experiences in water management practices. The findings of this study offer valuable insights into the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with water management strategies in Brazil and Portugal, thereby guiding the development of tailored policies and strategies that foster sustainability in water resource management. Additionally, the research highlights the role of digital transformation in optimizing water management practices. By integrating socio-economic, cultural, and digital factors, this study contributes to effective and sustainable water management in Brazil and Portugal, ensuring responsible utilization and preservation of water resources.

Santos, Eleonora↗
DOE OSTI2024

Markov Decision Processes for Intelligent, Risk-Informed Asset-Management Decision-Making

Advanced nuclear reactors are a promising option for aiding the world in achieving its net-zero carbon emission goals, however, there are significant challenges to attaining and maintaining economic competitiveness with other sources of electricity. To improve the economic competitiveness of advanced reactor designs, a project was initiated to explore the use of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to guide asset-management decision-making during advanced reactor operation. MDPs are a powerful tool for optimizing decision-making in complex environments and their application to advanced reactors can aid in planning maintenance and repair activities to minimize downtime and maximize generation. The described approach expands on previous work regarding the use of MDPs for operational decision-making through the direct incorporation of real-time plant information. The integral MDP analysis includes information from online component diagnostic tools and the plant’s real-time generation risk assessment (GRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which evaluate plant risk from both an economic and safety perspective. The result is an asset-management optimization framework that is based on real-time data regarding plant component status and the current best-estimate of plant risk. The paper presents an overview of the theoretical framework to incorporate the different information pathways into an integral MDP analysis, along with example analyses.

Grabaskas, David↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ion Clusters Reveal the Sources, Impacts, and Drivers of Freshwater Salinization

Population growth, land use change, climate change, and natural resource extraction are driving the salinization of freshwater resources worldwide. Reversing these trends will require data-centric approaches that identify salt sources, environmental drivers, and ecosystem responses. In this study, we applied principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to identify ion covariance patterns, or “ion clusters,” in Broad Run, an urban stream in the Mid-Atlantic United States. These clusters correspond to distinct hydrologic regimes and reveal specific salinization risks: (1) phosphorus pollution mobilized during summer storms (Cluster 1); (2) elevated concentrations of sulfate and bicarbonate during baseflow (Cluster 2), likely reflecting groundwater discharge; and (3) elevated specific conductance and sodium, chloride, and potassium ion concentrations during snowmelt and rain-on-snow events (Cluster 3), driven by deicer and anti-icer wash-off. These ion fingerprints offer a transferable framework for diagnosing salt sources, assessing ecological risk, and identifying management targets. Our findings underscore the need for next-generation stormwater infrastructure and smart growth policies to protect aquatic life in rapidly urbanizing watersheds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2011

Human Factors Throughout the Life Cycle: Lessons Learned from the Shuttle Program

With the ending of the Space Shuttle Program, it is critical that we not forget the Human Factors lessons we have learned over the years. At every phase of the life cycle, from manufacturing, processing and integrating vehicle and payload, to launch, flight operations, mission control and landing, hundreds of teams have worked together to achieve mission success in one of the most complex, high-risk socio-technical enterprises ever designed. Just as there was great diversity in the types of operations performed at every stage, there was a myriad of human factors that could further complicate these human systems. A single mishap or close call could point to issues at the individual level (perceptual or workload limitations, training, fatigue, human error susceptibilities), the task level (design of tools, procedures and aspects of the workplace), as well as the organizational level (appropriate resources, safety policies, information access and communication channels). While we have often had to learn through human mistakes and technological failures, we have also begun to understand how to design human systems in which individuals can excel, where tasks and procedures are not only safe but efficient, and how organizations can foster a proactive approach to managing risk and supporting human enterprises. Panelists will talk about their experiences as they relate human factors to a particular phase of the shuttle life cycle. They will conclude with a framework for tying together human factors lessons-learned into system-level risk management strategies.

human factors↗
DOE OSTI2022

Increasing risk of cascading hazards in the central Himalayas

Cascading hazards are becoming more prevalent in the central Himalayas. Primary hazards (e.g., earthquakes, avalanches, and landslides) often trigger secondary hazards (e.g., landslide dam, debris flow, and flooding), compounding the risks to human settlements, infrastructures, and ecosystems. Risk management strategies are commonly tailored to a single hazard, leaving human and natural systems vulnerable to cascading hazards. In this commentary, we characterize diverse natural hazards in the central Himalayas, including their cascading mechanisms and potential impacts. A scientifically sound understanding of the cascading hazards, underlying mechanisms, and appropriate tools to account for the compounding risks are crucial to informing the design of risk management strategies. Here, we also discuss the need for an integrated modeling framework, reliable prediction and early warning system, and sustainable disaster mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bio-project “derisking” through development of systematic methodologies and frameworks for risk assessment

One of the primary hindrances to producing a viable, sustainable domestic biomass industry for renewable biofuels, bio-products and bio-power is the lack of understanding and quantification of the risks associated with both the biomass supply chain and preprocessing and conversion technologies. Currently a consistent method for assessing, comparing, and quantifying risks in biomass supply chains does not exist, creating a major investment barrier to bioenergy projects in the U.S. The lack of a standardized approach has resulted in bioenergy stakeholders independently using inconsistent approaches and evaluation criteria, leading to unreliable and incomparable assessments of risks and financing barriers to bio-project development. Along with the challenges of inconsistent risk assessment for supply chain risk, technology specific risks based on variability in biomass properties are not fully understood and can pose significant unforeseen challenges for bioenergy projects. In many cases these properties have not yet been identified and the impacts on the proposed technology and products unquantified. This is particularly challenging for emerging preprocessing and conversion technologies. Without a firm understanding of the preprocessing/conversion technology-specific critical properties, the risk of a proposed bio-project cannot be fully evaluated. To address inconsistent risk evaluation in the biomass supply chain supporting project financing, a Biomass Supply Chain Risk Standards (BSCRS) framework was developed. The BSCRS framework includes a comprehensive list of known and perceived risks (Risk Indicators) to the supply chain developed through 100’s of interviews with bioenergy industry experts spanning from feedstock growers and suppliers to representatives from the financial sector. These risks have been organized into a manageable hierarchy of Risk Categories and Risk Factors that can be practically assessed. This BSCRS framework also provides mitigation strategies for multiple Risk Indicators from best available industry practices and research findings. Additionally, a risk quantification methodology for each Risk Factor, Risk Category, and the bio-project as a whole was developed to enable capital markets to assess feedstock risk more efficiently and more accurately. Multiple case studies representing existing bio-projects have been used to evaluate and verify the BSCRS framework and scoring methodology. To address technological risk along with the supply chain risk captured in the developed BSCRS framework, this work also focuses on development of a systematic criticality assessment tool using well-accepted, quantitative risk analysis methods to evaluate bioenergy feedstock critical properties impacting system unit operations. The proposed Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approach uses a team of subject area experts (SAEs) for each targeted unit operation within a system. Collectively, the team will develop and use a quantitative scoring system to assess the material attributes, process parameters, and quality attributes for key unit operations that have already been identified. The FMEA process generates Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for the various failures and predominant causes for each material/process unit/product combination resulting in a semi-quantitative, standardized methodology for assessing technological risk and biomass properties contributing to that risk.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS2016

Organizational Risk and Opportunity Management: Concepts and Processes for NASA's Consideration

The focus of this report is on the development of a framework and overall approach that serves the interests of nonprofit and Government organizations like NASA that focus on developing and/or applying new technology (henceforth referred to as organizations like NASA). These interests tend to place emphasis on performing services and achieving scientific and technical gains more than on achieving financial investment goals, which is the province of commercial enterprises. In addition, the objectives of organizations like NASA extend to institutional development and maintenance, financial health, legal and reputational protection, education and partnerships, and mandated milestone achievements. This report discusses the philosophical underpinnings of OROM for organizations like NASA, the integration of OROM with existing management processes, and the nature of the activities that are performed to implement OROM within this context. The proposed framework includes a set of core principles that would be essential to any successful OROM approach, along with some features that are currently under development and are continuing to evolve. The report is intended to foster discussion of OROM at NASA in order to reach a consensus on the optimum approach for the agency.

Risk↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydropower Cybersecurity Risk Management and Valuation

Advancements to DOE WPTO funded Hydropower Cybersecurity Value-at-Risk Framework application allows stakeholder to translate risk-based assessments to quantitative scores allowing to better decision making for cybersecurity investments.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2012

NASA System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation

This report has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) Risk Management team knowledge capture forums.. This document provides a point-in-time, cumulative, summary of actionable key lessons learned in safety framework and concepts.

System Safety↗
NASA NTRS1986

A risk management approach to CAIS development

The proposed DoD standard Common APSE Interface Set (CAIS) was developed as a framework set of interfaces that will support the transportability and interoperability of tools in the support environments of the future. While the current CAIS version is a promising start toward fulfilling those goals and current prototypes provide adequate testbeds for investigations in support of completing specifications for a full CAIS, there are many reasons why the proposed CAIS might fail to become a usable product and the foundation of next-generation (1990'S) project support environments such as NASA's Space Station software support environment. The most critical threats to the viability and acceptance of the CAIS include performance issues (especially in piggybacked implementations), transportability, and security requirements. To make the situation worse, the solution to some of these threats appears to be at conflict with the solutions to others.

Hart, Hal↗
NASA NTRS2011

DCS: A Case Study of Identification of Knowledge and Disposition Gaps Using Principles of Continuous Risk Management

The Human Research Program (HRP) is formulated around the program architecture of Evidence-Risk-Gap-Task-Deliverable. Review of accumulated evidence forms the basis for identification of high priority risks to human health and performance in space exploration. Gaps in knowledge or disposition are identified for each risk, and a portfolio of research tasks is developed to fill them. Deliverables from the tasks inform the evidence base with the ultimate goal of defining the level of risk and reducing it to an acceptable level. A comprehensive framework for gap identification, focus, and metrics has been developed based on principles of continuous risk management and clinical care. Research towards knowledge gaps improves understanding of the likelihood, consequence or timeframe of the risk. Disposition gaps include development of standards or requirements for risk acceptance, development of countermeasures or technology to mitigate the risk, and yearly technology assessment related to watching developments related to the risk. Standard concepts from clinical care: prevention, diagnosis, treatment, monitoring, rehabilitation, and surveillance, can be used to focus gaps dealing with risk mitigation. The research plan for the new HRP Risk of Decompression Sickness (DCS) used the framework to identify one disposition gap related to establishment of a DCS standard for acceptable risk, two knowledge gaps related to DCS phenomenon and mission attributes, and three mitigation gaps focused on prediction, prevention, and new technology watch. These gaps were organized in this manner primarily based on target for closure and ease of organizing interim metrics so that gap status could be quantified. Additional considerations for the knowledge gaps were that one was highly design reference mission specific and the other gap was focused on DCS phenomenon.

Norcross, Jason↗
NASA NTRS2017

Real-Time Prediction of Safety Margins in the National Airspace

Underlying all operations in the National Airspace System (NAS) is the concept of safety. Safety, as defined by acceptable levels of risk, is to be maintained at all times. The real-time safety monitoring (RTSM) framework is under development to provide an automated system to quantify safety in the NAS, estimate the current level of safety, and predict the future evolution of safety and the occurrence of events that pose an increased risk to flights so that these occurrences can be managed strategically rather than mitigated reactively. This paper presents the mathematical framework, the models, and the monitoring and prediction algorithms used to achieve this. RTSM computes safety as expressed through a set of safety margins based on user-defined safety metrics, thresolds, and events. Sources of uncertainty are modeled and propagated through the predictions in order to compute the probabilistic evolution of safety and the probability of events that introduce increased risk to operations. A prototype implementation is discussed and results demonstrating feasibility are presented. The results highlight the kinds of predictions that can be computed and the fidelity that is currently achieved.

national airspace system↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cybersecurity Framework Profile for Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging Infrastructure

This document is the Cybersecurity Framework Profile (Profile) developed for the Electric Vehicle Extreme Fast Charging (EV/XFC) ecosystem, including the four domains that relies on the ecosystem (i) Electric Vehicles (EV); (ii) Extreme Fast Charging (XFC); (iii) XFC Cloud or Third-Party Operations; and (iv) Utility and Building Networks. This Profile utilizes the NIST Cybersecurity Framework Version 1.1 and provides voluntary guidance to help relevant parties develop Profiles specific to their organization to understand, assess, and communicate their cybersecurity posture as a part of their risk management process. The Profile is intended to supplement, not replace, an existing risk management program or cybersecurity standards, regulations, and industry guidelines that are in current use by the EV/XFC industry.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Future of Safety Management

As the pace of aviation evolution accelerates, our approach to safety and risk management needs to evolve to cover expanded current day operations as well as participants not traditionally included in the airspace. To assure safety of an increasingly complex aviation system it is essential to leverage new processes and techniques that can more quickly identify and respond to emerging risks. The concept of an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) presents an advanced SMS framework designed to enable integrated safety management and assurance. To assure safety of future aviation operations and technologies, advanced SMS concepts must be designed such that they can evolve to keep pace as aviation continues to change and as new safety and risk management tools and techniques emerge.

safety↗
DOE OSTI2026

Assessing shellfish water exposure to fecal bacteria pollution in Salish Sea: three-dimensional modeling and implications for monitoring

Fecal bacteria (FB) contamination poses significant risks to shellfish safety and management in coastal and estuarine waters. Despite extensive pollution identification and correction efforts, FB contamination in shellfish-growing areas persists in the Salish Sea, highlighting the need to identify overlooked sources and better understand FB transport from riverine and shoreline inputs to shellfish beds. To address this, a high-resolution three-dimensional hydrodynamic model coupled with FB kinetics was developed and applied to a case study site in Salish Sea—Portage Bay—to simulate freshwater plume circulation, flushing dynamics, and bacterial transport. Daily FB loading from the major freshwater inflow—Nooksack River was generated by both linear interpolation and integrating a machine learning approach (XGBoost), trained on historical hydrological and meteorological data. The model successfully reproduced both the magnitude and seasonal variation of FB concentrations in Portage Bay for the year of 2021, demonstrating that simplified FB kinetics with first-order decay due to mortality was effective in this dynamic coastal environment with short flushing time. Model results identified the Nooksack River as the dominant far-field FB source, while scenario simulations showed that near-field coastal stormwater outfalls elevated local FB levels following rainfall, particularly under low-flow conditions. The XGBoost prediction provided comparable or superior accuracy to linear interpolation, particularly during periods of missing observational data, by capturing short-term variability and event-driven loading more effectively. Integrating data-driven riverine FB inputs with mechanistic coastal numerical modeling provides a robust framework for operational forecasting of shellfish bed exposure risk and supports adaptive monitoring and management of shellfish growing areas in the Salish Sea and similar coastal systems.

Salish Sea↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effectiveness of nature-based solutions to reduce flooding in Quad Cities Metro Area (QCMA) using SWMM-HEC based flood model

Nature-based solutions (NbS) have gained significant attention as strategies for addressing urban environmental challenges, particularly since the establishment of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. However, the current research on NbS for urban flood management lacks comprehensive methodological approaches for identifying suitable areas and evaluating their effectiveness across different urban settings. Here, this study attempts to fill this gap by proposing a methodological framework integrating multi-criteria analysis with a SWMM-HEC-based hydrologic and hydraulic (HH) model to assess the suitability of NbS for the Quad Cities Metro Area (QCMA), consisting of Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline, and Rock Island. Eight NbS options-green roofs, rain gardens, infiltration trenches, permeable pavements, vegetative swales, dry detention basins, retention ponds, and rain barrels/cisterns - were considered based on volumetric efficiency and runoff reduction efficiency. The study reveals that implementing the proposed NbS could have substantially reduced flood depths in key historical flood events by 21% in 1993, 15% in 2008, 16% in 2011, 23% in 2014, 40% in 2019, and 10% in 2023. The findings highlight a critical trade-off between peak runoff and NbS implementation: while NbS effectively reduce flood impacts, they also enhance volumetric efficiency by approximately 43%. In high-density areas of the QCMA, flood depth reductions of around 20% suggest that NbS are a viable solution for dense urban environments with limited space. This shows the potential for integrating NbS into existing infrastructure, offering a promising approach for cities facing increasing flooding risks. The proposed methodology provides a practical framework for incorporating NbS into urban stormwater management, addressing gaps in optimizing NbS performance, and offering a pathway to scale their application in other urban areas with various environmental and social contexts.

CMIP6↗