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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Application and Interpretation of Acumen Risk ® Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis

Schedule risk and cost risk analyses use statistical techniques to predict a level of confidence in meeting a program’s completion date and cost. This paper describes how to interpret key Schedule Risk Analysis (SRA) and Cost Risk Analysis (CRA) results to determine the likelihood that the program completion dates are met, how much management reserve (MR) is needed to provide the acceptable certainty of completion by a specific date, and the risks and activities that are most likely to delay or add cost to a project. The combined process is often called a Schedule/Cost Uncertainty and Risk Analysis or “SCURA.”

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Risk Communications and Risk Mitigation

This topical report summarizes risk communications and risk treatment (a.k.a. mitigation) aspects of risk management workflow for the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) Phase III Demonstration Project, located near the community of Farnsworth in northernmost Texas. Detail on risk communications previously provided in an internal project report is summarized here, while detail on risk treatment is presented for the first time. A principal message is that the effective development and execution of risk treatments depends on effective communications among project staff. Farnsworth Project relied primarily on internal communications; in contrast, projects that also rely heavily on public approval will be relatively more dependent upon effective information sharing with external stakeholders. The report documents work undertaken for Tasks 7.4.2 and 7.4.3 of U.S. Department of Energy

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical Background and Validation Report on the Residential Water Inhalation Risk Calculator Presented in the Risk Assessment Information System

Indoor air quality (IAQ) is critical for human health. Poor IAQ is linked to respiratory issues, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. Indoor pollutants are emitted by typical household items such as cleaning products, personal care items, building materials, and tap water - an understudied volatile organic compound (VOC) source. This document presents the Residential Water Inhalation Risk Calculator (RWIRC), which estimates daily VOC exposure concentrations from various household water uses, such as showering and dishwashing, to assess exposure risks for the most vulnerable occupant. Integrated into the Risk Assessment Information System (RAIS) and sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE), the calculator divides a house into three compartments: shower, bathroom, and other spaces, accounting for daily water usage patterns and calculating VOC concentrations. Exposure data generated using the calculator can assist health assessors in estimating excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCR) and hazard index (HI) from VOC inhalation. Unlike traditional exposure models that utilize Andelman’s constant, the RWIRC continuously assesses variability in VOC concentrations and environmental conditions using differential equations to track VOC concentrations and air exchange between compartments. The calculator also provides unique volatilization fractions for each chemical and appliance, enhancing accuracy of the exposure concentration estimation. The RWIRC is accessible online and allows users to customize parameters (i.e., number of bathrooms, water temperature, and exhaust fan conditions) and input VOC characteristics (i.e., tap water and ambient air concentrations). This document provides a step-by-step guide on implementing the calculator. It also provides comparisons with the ATSDR-SHOWER calculator, using eight VOCs with varying physicochemical properties to reveal differences in algorithms and output concentrations. Simulations also assess how bathroom door positions and exhaust fan usage affect VOC exposure. The calculator results can enhance EPA risk screening levels for inhalation exposure to VOCs from tap water, offering a sophisticated tool for assessing inhalation risks and improving public health protection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Reactor Designs Security Analysis, Risk, and Recommendations: Risks, Consequences, and Possible by-Design Mitigation Approaches Associated with Select Advanced Reactors

Next-generation advanced reactors (ARs) incorporate enhanced safety systems, have smaller source terms, and feature compact modular designs, which should lessen their collective risk profiles. However, to fully evaluate risk, security needs to be a part of the equation. Without taking security into consideration, safety systems and components in the new ARs may be vulnerable to sabotage. These base attributes, coupled with enhanced security features specific to AR design through sound engineering and security-by-design (SeBD), should provide developers and operators with lower inherent security risk profiles. Building security early into the AR design may remove or passively secure potential critical targets from an adversary’s reach , thereby increasing overall safety and security. An integrated approach and diverse design team that includes engineering, operations, and security experts are fundamental to building security into the design without sacrificing fundamental operational efficiencies and principles. The objective of this project was to evaluate the security and safety interfaces for five classes of reactors, identify potential security vulnerabilities of structures, systems, and components (SSC), and underscore the need to consider security alongside safety in the design o f these concepts. The five reactor classes evaluated in this project and presented in this report are molten-salt reactors (MSR), high temperature gas reactors (HTGR), sodium-fast reactors (SFR), advanced light-water reactors (ALWR), and microreactors. These designs were selected because they reflect the concepts that are closest to market deployment and have received significant resource investments from the public and private sector. This project assesses the inherent security risks posed by common classes of ARs, provides a methodology and framework to assess security along with safety, and offers an analysis of potential mitigation strategies that could be incorporated. For each AR technology, the SSCs that relate to radionuclide source safety functions are discussed to understand the SSC contribution to safety and relative importance in the protective strategy for the design. The assumptions that went into evaluating each reactor concept originated from generic publicly available nonproprietary information and should not directly be used to qualify an absolute risk profile nor to rank specific AR designs. Instead, the purpose of the analysis is to understand and compare the generic inherent security risks of different AR technologies.

98 - NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL↗
NASA NTRS2000

End-To-End Risk Assesment: From Genes and Protein to Acceptable Radiation Risks for Mars Exploration

The human exploration of Mars will impose unavoidable health risks from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and possibly solar particle events (SPE). It is the goal of NASA's Space Radiation Health Program to develop the capability to predict health risks with significant accuracy to ensure that risks are well below acceptable levels and to allow for mitigation approaches to be effective at reasonable costs. End-to-End risk assessment is the approach being followed to understand proton and heavy ion damage at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels in order to predict the probability of the major health risk including cancer, neurological disorders, hereditary effects, cataracts, and acute radiation sickness and to develop countermeasures for mitigating risks.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA’s Mid-Atlantic Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk Demonstration: Translating Compounding Hazards to Societal Risk

Remote sensing provides a unique perspective on our dynamic planet, tracking changes and revealing the course of complex interactions. Long term monitoring and targeted observation combine with modeling and mapping to provide increased awareness of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Disasters often follow hazards and the goal of NASA’s Disasters Program is to look at the earth as a highly coupled system to reduce risk and enable resilience. Remote sensing and geospatial science are used as tools to help answer critical questions that inform decisions. Data is not the same as information, nor does understanding of processes necessarily translate into decision support for disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, NASA is engaging the scientific and decision-support communities to apply remote sensing, modeling, and related applications in Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk (CAIR). In 2017, NASA’s Applied Sciences Disasters Program hosted a regional workshop to explore these issues with particular focus on coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The workshop brought together partners in academia, emergency management, and scientists from NASA and partnering federal agencies to explore capabilities among the team that could improve understanding of the physical processes related to these hazards, their potential impact to changing communities, and to identify methodologies for supporting emergency response and risk mitigation. The resulting initiative, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project, demonstrates the ability to integrate satellite derived earth observations and physical models into actionable, trusted knowledge. Severe storms and associated storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence coupled with increasing populations and densely populated, aging critical infrastructure often leave coastal regions and their communities extremely vulnerable. The integration of observations and models allow for a comprehensive understanding of the compounding risk experienced in coastal regions and enables individuals in all positions make risk-informed decisions. This initiative uses a representative storm surge case as a baseline to produce flood inundation maps. These maps predict building level impacts at current day and for sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence scenarios of the future in order to inform critical decisions at both the tactical and strategic levels. To accomplish this analysis, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project brings together Federal research activities with academia to examine coastal hazards in multiple ways: 1) reanalysis of impacts from 2011 Hurricane Irene, using numerical weather modeling in combination with coastal surge and hydrodynamic, urban inundation modeling to evaluate combined impact scenarios considering SLR and subsidence, 2) remote sensing of flood extent from available optical imagery, 3) adding value to remotely sensed flood maps through depth predictions, and 4) examining coastal subsidence as measured through time-series analysis of synthetic aperture radar observations. Efforts and results are published via ArcGIS story maps to communicate neighborhoods and infrastructure most vulnerable to changing conditions. Story map features enable time-aware flood mapping using hydrodynamic models, photographic comparison of flooding following Hurricane Irene, as well as visualization of heightened risk in the future due to SLR and land subsidence.

Rogers, Laura↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Miserable Risk Estimation: “Managing” Low-Probability, High-Consequence Risks

As with all bold endeavors, NASA missions must identify and manage their risks. While estimating the consequences of these risks is typically straightforward, it can be challenging to estimate their likelihood. This is especially true for low-probability risks, due both to the lack of operational data and the cognitive biases humans bring to risk estimation. In this talk, I will present both a tongue-in-cheek and “Management Science” approach to estimating low-probability, high-consequence risks. I then summon my Human Factors colleagues to provide NASA mission managers with the gentle guidance needed to avoid common errors in risk assessment

Mary K Kaiser↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk-Based SMA and Modernizing Risk Classification at GSFC

In 2014, in response to a large volume of feedback from industry, the science community, and internal to Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), GSFC’s Safety and Mission Assurance (SMA) Directorate began a transition to a risk-based implementation of SMA, departing from its longstanding practice of being primarily driven by a mostly static set of Mission Assurance Requirements. The transition started out with a pilot project involving risk-based acceptance of bare-printed circuit boards that was enormously successful, continued through a complete organizational transformation in 2015, and culminated with the baselining of formal Risk-Based SMA policy in 2016. In this presentation we will describe the risk-based SMA concept, segue into how it shapes a modernization of risk classification that GSFC has rolled out, and provide results from the original pilot project for risk-based SMA, involving the printed circuit board assurance process.

Jesse Leitner↗
DOE OSTI2025

2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?

Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness, which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it. The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth's orbit twice a year at its nodes. Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Application of multi-method-multi-model inference to radiation related solid cancer excess risks models for astronaut risk assessment

The impact of including model-averaged excess radiation risks (ER) into a measure of radiation attributed decrease of survival (RADS) for the outcome all solid cancer incidence and the impact on the uncertainties is demonstrated. It is shown that RADS applying weighted model averaged ER based on AIC weights result in smaller risk estimates with narrower 95% CI than RADS using ER based on BIC weights. Further a multi-method-multi-model inference approach is introduced that allows calculating one general RADS estimate providing a weighted average risk estimate for a lunar and a Mars mission. For males the general RADS estimate is found to be 0.42% (95% CI: 0.38%; 0.45%) and for females 0.67% (95% CI: 0.59%; 0.75%) for a lunar mission and 2.45% (95% CI: 2.23%; 2.67%) for males and 3.91% (95% CI: 3.44%; 4.39%) for females for a Mars mission considering an age at exposure of 40 years and an attained age of 65 years. It is recommended to include these types of uncertainties and to include model-averaged excess risks in astronaut risk assessment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS2014

Risk Classification and Risk-based Safety and Mission Assurance

Recent activities to revamp and emphasize the need to streamline processes and activities for Class D missions across the agency have led to various interpretations of Class D, including the lumping of a variety of low-cost projects into Class D. Sometimes terms such as Class D minus are used. In this presentation, mission risk classifications will be traced to official requirements and definitions as a measure to ensure that projects and programs align with the guidance and requirements that are commensurate for their defined risk posture. As part of this, the full suite of risk classifications, formal and informal will be defined, followed by an introduction to the new GPR 8705.4 that is currently under review.GPR 8705.4 lays out guidance for the mission success activities performed at the Classes A-D for NPR 7120.5 projects as well as for projects not under NPR 7120.5. Furthermore, the trends in stepping from Class A into higher risk posture classifications will be discussed. The talk will conclude with a discussion about risk-based safety and mission assuranceat GSFC.

Risk Management↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cost Risk Analysis Framework (CRAFT): An Integrated Risk Analysis Tool and its Application in an Industry Use Case

This report presents the initial application design of the Cost Risk Analysis Framework Tool (CRAFT). The initial concept was formulated from a need to perform financial risk analysis that can be quickly deployable through the nuclear industry to evaluate the risk associated to capital projects and asset management. The design evolved into a framework that can integrate several forms of risk (e.g., not just financial, but also safety related) into a single analysis. In order to reduce the research and development and deployment time, we have decided to use the Risk Analysis Virtual environment (RAVEN) statistical framework as a basis for the CRAFT architecture.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Human Health Risk Assessment Methods for PV (Part 2: Breakage Risks)

Photovoltaic (PV) modules are designed and tested for long-term durability in harsh outdoor environments, but a small percentage may break during installation or operation. Some industry stakeholders have expressed concerns regarding potential human exposure to hazardous materials should a PV module break in the field. To evaluate these concerns, screening-level risk assessment methods are presented that can estimate emissions that may occur when broken PV modules are exposed to rainwater, estimate the associated chemical concentrations in soil, groundwater and air, and finally compare these exposure-point concentrations to health-protective screening levels based on 1 x 10-6 cancer risk and hazard quotient of 1. The screening-level methods can be used to decide whether further evaluation of potential health risks is warranted. A few example scenarios demonstrate application of the methods. Specifically, this report presents an analysis of potential human health impacts associated with rainwater leaching from broken modules for two PV technologies, focusing on release of the highest-prioritized chemical element for each: lead (Pb) content in crystalline-silicon (c-Si) PV modules and cadmium (Cd) content in thin film cadmium telluride (CdTe) PV modules. The prioritization of these chemical elements for analysis is based on stakeholder interest. Because the methodology is chemical-specific, the risk assessment results for these chemicals cannot be directly generalized to other chemicals, although the risk assessment methodology can be applied to other chemicals.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2018

Risk Tolerance and Safety Culture: Minimizing the Risk of Catastrophe by Bringing the Lessons of Space Home

The Johnson Space Center has pursued integrating safety culture and risk management practices and techniques throughout a large organization with an extraordinarily diverse mission. Past mission and institutional failures have been used to inform NASA's safety culture and a implement a uniform risk management environment. Basics from the loss prevention industry have influenced NASA's approach to sustaining its unique, yet aging, infrastructure. Lessons learned at NASA can augment and enhance occupational safety, health and risk management capabilities within hazardous industries. By focusing on risk informed decision-making, building a pervasive safety culture, and accommodating human factors, NASA's safety capabilities have been specifically developed to minimize the risk of loss of life and loss of mission.

Mishap↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data‐Driven Safety Risk Prediction of Lithium‐Ion Battery

Abstract Inevitable safety issues have pushed battery engineers to become more conservative in battery system design; however, battery‐involved accidents still frequently are reported in headlines. Identifying, understanding, and predicting safety risks have become priorities to further accelerate technology and industry development. However, diverse loading scenarios, significantly varied stress‐induced short circuit mechanisms, and highly coupled mechanical–electrochemical safety behaviors have remained grand challenges. Herein, the safety risk is termed as the probability of the mechanical triggering of an internal short circuit, to reflect the safety related behaviors of lithium‐ion batteries. Based on a mechanical model and experimental results, a sufficient dataset is generated consisting of strain states and their corresponding safety risks, covering both cylindrical and pouch cells, various states of charges, and loading conditions. Machine‐learning tools combined with the established finite element mechanical model are applied to predict the safety risks of the cells. The results achieve a high level of accuracy on the test data (the relative error of the average short circuit prediction deviation is less than 6.2%.). This work underpins the safety risk concept and highlights the promise of physics combined with data‐driven modeling methodology to predict the safety behaviors of energy storage systems.

Jia, Yikai↗
DOE OSTI2021

Lung Cancer and Heart Disease Risks Associated With Low-Dose Pulmonary Radiotherapy to COVID-19 Patients With Different Background Risks

The respiratory disease COVID-19 reached global pandemic status in 2020. Excessive inflammation is believed to result in the most severe symptoms and death from this disease. Because treatment options for patients with severe COVID-19 related pulmonary symptoms remain limited, whole-lung low-dose radiation therapy is being evaluated as an anti-inflammatory modality. However, there is concern about the long-term risks associated with low-dose pulmonary irradiation. To help quantify the benefit-risk balance of low-dose radiation therapy for COVID-19, we estimated radiation-induced lifetime risks of both lung cancer and heart disease (major coronary events) for patients of different sexes, treated at ages 50 to 85, with and without other relevant risk factors (cigarette smoking and baseline heart disease risk).

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
NASA NTRS2018

Risk Tolerance and Safety Culture: Minimizing the Risk of Catastrophe by Bringing the Lessons of Space Home

The Johnson Space Center has pursued integrating risk management practices and techniques throughout a large organization with an extraordinarily diverse mission. Past mission and institutional failures have been used to inform NASA's safety culture and a implement a uniform risk management environment. Basics from the loss prevention industry have influenced NASA's approach to sustaining its unique, yet aging, infrastructure. Lessons learned at NASA can augment and enhance occupational safety, health and risk management capabilities within hazardous industries. By focusing on risk informed decision-making, building a pervasive safety culture, and accommodating human factors, NASA's safety capabilities have been specifically developed to minimize the risk of loss of life and loss of mission.

Loyd, David↗