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Climate Prediction Sees Future Despite Chaos: Researchers Outside NASA use NCCS Resources for Studies

The air on this mostly sunny January day is crisp and the wind is blustery. The morning's National Weather Service 6-hour forecast had accurately predicted these conditions for the Baltimore-Washington area and the 2-3 day extended outlook was almost perfect. The previous week, the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlook for the general trends for the' region was correct as well. However, no forecast could have predicted specific details about this day. It is 28.5 F in the sunshine bright enough for dark sunglasses, and windy enough to blow off a hat. Such details are impossible to foresee with any accuracy and are outside the scope of routine weather prediction. Equally difficult is accurately forecasting weather beyond about 2 weeks.

Source record

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka

Downscaling NASA Climatological Data to Produce Detailed Climate Zone Maps

The design of energy efficient sustainable buildings is heavily dependent on accurate long-term and near real-time local weather data. To varying degrees the current meteorological networks over the globe have been used to provide these data albeit often from sites far removed from the desired location. The national need is for access to weather and solar resource data accurate enough to use to develop preliminary building designs within a short proposal time limit, usually within 60 days. The NASA Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was established by NASA to provide industry friendly access to globally distributed solar and meteorological data. As a result, the POWER web site (power.larc.nasa.gov) now provides global information on many renewable energy parameters and several buildings-related items but at a relatively coarse resolution. This paper describes a method of downscaling NASA atmospheric assimilation model results to higher resolution and maps those parameters to produce building climate zone maps using estimates of temperature and precipitation. The distribution of climate zones for North America with an emphasis on the Pacific Northwest for just one year shows very good correspondence to the currently defined distribution. The method has the potential to provide a consistent procedure for deriving climate zone information on a global basis that can be assessed for variability and updated more regularly.

Chandler, William S.

2022 Power Global Community (Gloco) Summit Summary Report

The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) Project 25th year of providing global solar and meteorology data products to the world. The goals of this event were to inform users of new, enhanced features, gather feedback on services, identify new requests and requirements, and capture more thorough user stories while identifying new user communities and partnership opportunities. The event was “virtual” and had over 580 registrants. Over the two-day event, the Summit was attended by 162 unique attendees representing 24 countries.

NASA

Supply and Resource Management to Progressively Enable EIMO

BACKGROUND: Current medical operations in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) allow for real-time audio-video communication with a flight surgeon at mission control, resupply, and medical evacuation to earth on the order of hours. As mission profiles change from LEO to the Moon, Mars, and beyond, medical risk as a contribution to overall mission risk is anticipated to rise substantially. Concurrently, due to the distance, the medical systems on board vehicles proposed for these mission types are expected to have reduced mass and volume allocation. Together, astronaut crews will be at a higher risk of major medical events, be required to perform a broader set of tasks, and have substantially reduced resources and support to do so. Earth Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) aims to identify and fill the gaps present in this progressively changing paradigm. OVERVIEW: Medical supplies, resources, and skills are central to spaceflight medical systems. Vehicles used for non-LEO missions are anticipated to be smaller and thus the medical system will also need to have reduced mass, volume, and power. Medical resources are another form of consumable and may need resupply or pre-deployment to meet crew needs. One particular concern is the degradation of medications which become less efficacious and potentially toxic with time, particularly given environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity, oxygen, and radiation which have not yet been fully studied. Supply and resource management in LEO is dependent on resupply, however the supply chain of transporting equipment does not yet have a clear infrastructure for missions beyond LEO. DISCUSSION: EIMO is intended to systemically identify and fill these gaps with forward-looking solutions. In mission monitoring of resources with technology like RFID, improving medical resource longevity, targeted resupply and careful pre-mission planning will be central to facilitate crew health and performance. One approach to optimizing resources is the Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool, which uses probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) to quantitatively predict medical risk and identify resources and skills that mitigate this risk. This evidence based, quantitative analysis prediction tool and several other approaches to meeting the challenge of supply and resource management are discussed.

Arian Anderson

The NASA Cold Land Processes Pathfinder Mission (CLPP)

The Cold Land Processes Pathfinder (CLPP) mission concept has been developed to measure hydrologic properties of the Cryosphere. The science driver for the mission is to understand the variability of global water cycling and its consequences for local water resources and climate. The CLPP mission is designed to reduce uncertainty of cold-region precipitation, storage, controls, and feedbacks to the land, atmosphere, and ocean, which in turn will improve prediction of future changes in water cycle dynamics. It will provide the first high-resolution global measurements of Earth's changing snow conditions to: 1) quantify the variability of processes in cold regions, 2) improve understanding of past changes, and 3) enable breakthroughs in prediction of future water resources, weather, and climate. The CLPP concept consists of active (C- and Ku-band) and passive (K- and Ka-band) microwave sensors (with high and moderate spatial resolution respectively) to observe snow water equivalent and snow wetness at local process scales. The CLPP global sampling framework provides necessary capability to relate observed local scale snow characteristics to atmospheric forcings, improve predictive models operating at multiple scales, and to tie the short-term CLPP record to the long-term low-resolution remote sensing climate record of global snow properties.

Cline, D.

CFD Modeling of Launch Vehicle Aerodynamic Heating

The Loci-CHEM 3.2 Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code is being used to predict Ares-I launch vehicle aerodynamic heating. CFD has been used to predict both ascent and stage reentry environments and has been validated against wind tunnel tests and the Ares I-X developmental flight test. Most of the CFD predictions agreed with measurements. On regions where mismatches occurred, the CFD predictions tended to be higher than measured data. These higher predictions usually occurred in complex regions, where the CFD models (mainly turbulence) contain less accurate approximations. In some instances, the errors causing the over-predictions would cause locations downstream to be affected even though the physics were still being modeled properly by CHEM. This is easily seen when comparing to the 103-AH data. In the areas where predictions were low, higher grid resolution often brought the results closer to the data. Other disagreements are attributed to Ares I-X hardware not being present in the grid, as a result of computational resources limitations. The satisfactory predictions from CHEM provide confidence that future designs and predictions from the CFD code will provide an accurate approximation of the correct values for use in design and other applications

Tashakkor, Scott B.

Prognostics for Microgrid Components

Prognostics is the science of predicting future performance and potential failures based on targeted condition monitoring. Moving away from the traditional reliability centric view, prognostics aims at detecting and quantifying the time to impending failures. This advance warning provides the opportunity to take actions that can preserve uptime, reduce cost of damage, or extend the life of the component. The talk will focus on the concepts and basics of prognostics from the viewpoint of condition-based systems health management. Differences with other techniques used in systems health management and philosophies of prognostics used in other domains will be shown. Examples relevant to micro grid systems and subsystems will be used to illustrate various types of prediction scenarios and the resources it take to set up a desired prognostic system. Specifically, the implementation results for power storage and power semiconductor components will demonstrate specific solution approaches of prognostics. The role of constituent elements of prognostics, such as model, prediction algorithms, failure threshold, run-to-failure data, requirements and specifications, and post-prognostic reasoning will be explained. A discussion on performance evaluation and performance metrics will conclude the technical discussion followed by general comments on open research problems and challenges in prognostics.

Saxena, Abhinav

Providing Long-term Solar and Meteorological Resource Information from NASA Research through the GIS-Enabled POWER Web Services Portal

Solar and other renewable energy systems are optimized using geophysical parameters describing information about the solar resource and meteorological environments and how those environments may be changing in time. The Prediction of Worldwide Renewable Energy Resource (POWER) team at the NASA LaRC Research Center deployed its first version of the revitalized POWER geophysical parameter website that employs Esri Geographic Information System (GIS) tools. This web application provides access to both time series and climatological data sets spanning from a few days behind real-time back to the early 1980’s with a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree, thus extending over 30 years. The GIS tools enable, generate and store climatological averages using spatial queries and calculations in a spatial database resulting in greater accessibility to government agencies, industry and individuals. There is an API that provides data through a URL coding and can also invoked inside user software packages. Output data formats now include ASCII, CSV, geoTiff, JSON and .netCDF. Since May 2018, over 10.4 TB of data have been delivered to fulfill over 110 million data requests from 240,000 unique user IPs (https://power.larc.nasa.gov). This presentation provides an overview of this project and the current version of the new POWER web capabilities through to the end usage. Surface solar parameters are adapted from both the NASA/GEWEX (Global and Energy Water Cycle Exchange) SRB (Surface Radiation Budget) project and the CERES (Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System) data products. The meteorological parameters are adapted from NASA’s MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications). We review uncertainty of various basic parameters using surface measurements. After the introduction, we specifically discuss various clusters of parameters for equator pointing tilted surfaces that provide for the estimation of optimal tilt angle by month and year. The discussion will emphasize a few examples of how solar and building engineers are using the data products. We will then preview the capabilities of Version 2 featuring examples of hourly solar and meteorological data products, customized user reports and expanded web mapping services from CERES data products. The web services provide a unique, expandable resource for renewable energy systems engineers to design, evaluate and optimize to environments worldwide.

Solar Resource

A Comparison of Satellite Based, Modeled Derived Daily Solar Radiation Data with Observed Data for the Continental US

Many applications of simulation models and related decision support tools for agriculture and natural resource management require daily meteorological data as inputs. Availability and quality of such data, however, often constrain research and decision support activities that require use of these tools. Daily solar radiation (SRAD) data are especially problematic because the instruments require electronic integrators, accurate sensors are expensive, and calibration standards are seldom available. The Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA/POWER; power.larc.nasa.gov) project at the NASA Langley Research Center estimates daily solar radiation based on data that are derived from satellite observations of outgoing visible radiances and atmospheric parameters based upon satellite observations and assimilation models. The solar data are available for a global 1 degree x 1 degree coordinate grid. SRAD can also be estimated based on attenuation of extraterrestrial radiation (Q0) using daily temperature and rainfall data to estimate the optical thickness of the atmosphere. This study compares daily solar radiation data from NASA/POWER (SRADNP) with instrument readings from 295 stations (SRADOB), as well as with values that were estimated with the WGENR solar generator. WGENR was used both with daily temperature and precipitation records from the stations reporting solar data and records from the NOAA Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), thus providing two additional sources of solar data, SRADWG and SRADCO. Values of SRADNP for different grid cells consistently showed higher correlations (typically 0.85 to 0.95) with SRADOB data than did SRADWG or SRADCO for sites within the corresponding cells. Mean values of SRADOB, SRADWG and SRADNP for sites within a grid cell usually were within 1 MJm-2d-1 of each other, but NASA/POWER values averaged 1.1 MJm-2d-1 lower than SRADOB. The magnitude of this bias was greater at lower latitudes and during summer months and may be at least partially explained by assumptions in ambient aerosol properties. Overall, the NASA/POWER solar radiation data are a promising resource for regional modeling studies where realistic accounting of historic variation is required.

White, Jeffrey W.

Performance Enhancements Under Dual-task Conditions

Research on dual-task performance has been concerned with delineating the antecedent conditions which lead to dual-task decrements. Capacity models of attention, which propose that a hypothetical resource structure underlies performance, have been employed as predictive devices. These models predict that tasks which require different processing resources can be more successfully time shared than tasks which require common resources. The conditions under which such dual-task integrality can be fostered were assessed in a study in which three factors likely to influence the integrality between tasks were manipulated: inter-task redundancy, the physical proximity of tasks and the task relevant objects. Twelve subjects participated in three experimental sessions in which they performed both single and dual-tasks. The primary task was a pursuit step tracking task. The secondary tasks required the discrimination between different intensities or different spatial positions of a stimulus. The results are discussed in terms of a model of dual-task integrality.

Kramer, A. F.

An emulator for minimizing finite element analysis implementation resources

A finite element analysis emulator providing a basis for efficiently establishing an optimum computer implementation strategy when many calculations are involved is described. The SCOPE emulator determines computer resources required as a function of the structural model, structural load-deflection equation characteristics, the storage allocation plan, and computer hardware capabilities. Thereby, it provides data for trading analysis implementation options to arrive at a best strategy. The models contained in SCOPE lead to micro-operation computer counts of each finite element operation as well as overall computer resource cost estimates. Application of SCOPE to the Memphis-Arkansas bridge analysis provides measures of the accuracy of resource assessments. Data indicate that predictions are within 17.3 percent for calculation times and within 3.2 percent for peripheral storage resources for the ELAS code.

Melosh, R. J.

An introduction to high speed aircraft noise prediction

The Aircraft Noise Prediction Program's High Speed Research prediction system (ANOPP-HSR) is introduced. This mini-manual is an introduction which gives a brief overview of the ANOPP system and the components of the HSR prediction method. ANOPP information resources are given. Twelve of the most common ANOPP-HSR control statements are described. Each control statement's purpose and format are stated and relevant examples are provided. More detailed examples of the use of the control statements are presented in the manual along with ten ANOPP-HSR templates. The purpose of the templates is to provide the user with working ANOPP-HSR programs which can be modified to serve particular prediction requirements. Also included in this manual is a brief discussion of common errors and how to solve these problems. The appendices include the following useful information: a summary of all ANOPP-HSR functional research modules, a data unit directory, a discussion of one of the more complex control statements, and input data unit and table examples.

Wilson, Mark R.

Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States

Abstract In the 21st century, warmer temperatures and changing atmospheric circulation will likely produce unprecedented changes in Western United States snowfall 1–3 , with impacts on the timing, amount, and spatial patterns of snowpack 4–7 . The ~900 snow pillow stations are indispensable to water resource management by measuring snow-water equivalent (SWE) 8,9 in strategic but fixed locations 10,11 . However, this network may not be impacted by climate change in the same way as the surrounding area 12 and thus fail to accurately represent unmeasured locations; climate change thereby threatens our ability to measure the effects of climate change on snow. In this work, we show that maintaining the current peak SWE estimation skill is nonetheless possible. We find that explicitly including spatial correlations—either from gridded observations or learned by the model—improves skill at predicting distributed snowpack from sparse observations by 184%. Existing artificial intelligence methods can be useful tools to harness the many available sources of snowpack information to estimate snowpack in a nonstationary climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Observation of Hydrological Processes Using Remote Sensing: Volume 2: The Science of Hydrology - Chapter 2.14

Improving water management can make a significant contribution to achieving most of the Millennium Development Goals established by the UN General Assembly in 2000, especially those related to poverty, hunger, and major diseases. The World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) in 2002 recognized this need. Water and sanitation in particular received great attention from the Summit. The Johannesburg Plan of Implementation recommended to improve water resources management and scientific understanding of the water cycle through joint cooperation and research. For this purpose, it is recommended to promote knowledge sharing, provide capacity building, and facilitate the transfer of technology including remote-sensing (RS) and satellite technologies, especially to developing countries and countries with economies in transition, and to support these countries in their efforts to monitor and assess the quantity and quality of water resources, for example, by establishing and/or further developing national monitoring networks and water resources databases and by developing relevant national indicators. The Johannesburg Plan also adopted integrated water resources management as the overarching concept in addressing and solving water-related issues. As a result of the commitments made in the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation, several global and regional initiatives have emerged. Current international initiatives such as the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES) program of the European Commission and the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) 10-Year Implementation Plan, have all identified Earth observation (EO) of the water cycle as the key in helping to solve the world s water problems. The availability of spatial information on water quantity and quality will also enable closure of the water budget at river basin and continental scales to the point where effective water management is essential (e.g., as requested by the European Union s Water Framework Directive (WFD), as well as national policies). Geo-information science and EO are vital in achieving a better understanding of the water cycle and better monitoring, analysis, prediction, and management of the world s water resources. The major components of the water cycle of the Earth system and their possible observations are presented. Such observations are essential to understand the global water cycle and its variability, both spatially and temporally, and can only be achieved consistently by means of EOs. Additionally, such observations are essential to advance our understanding of coupling between the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic branches of the water cycle, and how this coupling may influence climate variability and predictability. Water resources management directly interferes with the natural water cycle in the forms of building dams, reservoirs, water transfer systems, and irrigation systems that divert and redistribute part of the water storages and fluxes on land. The water cycle is mainly driven and coupled to the energy cycle in terms of phase changes of water (changes among liquid, water vapor, and solid phases) and transport of water by winds in addition to gravity and diffusion processes. The water-cycle components can be observed with in situ sensors as well as airborne and satellite sensors in terms of radiative quantities. Processing and conversion of these radiative signals are necessary to retrieve the water-cycle components.

Wilder, Peter

Runway Operations Planning: A Two-Stage Solution Methodology

The airport runway is a scarce resource that must be shared by different runway operations (arrivals, departures and runway crossings). Given the possible sequences of runway events, careful Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is required if runway utilization is to be maximized. Thus, Runway Operations Planning (ROP) is a critical component of airport operations planning in general and surface operations planning in particular. From the perspective of departures, ROP solutions are aircraft departure schedules developed by optimally allocating runway time for departures given the time required for arrivals and crossings. In addition to the obvious objective of maximizing throughput, other objectives, such as guaranteeing fairness and minimizing environmental impact, may be incorporated into the ROP solution subject to constraints introduced by Air Traffic Control (ATC) procedures. Generating optimal runway operations plans was approached in with a 'one-stage' optimization routine that considered all the desired objectives and constraints, and the characteristics of each aircraft (weight class, destination, Air Traffic Control (ATC) constraints) at the same time. Since, however, at any given point in time, there is less uncertainty in the predicted demand for departure resources in terms of weight class than in terms of specific aircraft, the ROP problem can be parsed into two stages. In the context of the Departure Planner (OP) research project, this paper introduces Runway Operations Planning (ROP) as part of the wider Surface Operations Optimization (SOO) and describes a proposed 'two stage' heuristic algorithm for solving the Runway Operations Planning (ROP) problem. Focus is specifically given on including runway crossings in the planning process of runway operations. In the first stage, sequences of departure class slots and runwy crossings slots are generated and ranked based on departure runway throughput under stochastic conditions. In the second stage, the departure class slots are populated with specific flights from the pool of available aircraft, by solving an integer program. Preliminary results from the algorithm implementation on real-world traffic data are included.

Anagnostakis, Ioannis

A Parametric, Data-Driven, Non-Intrusive Reduced-Order Model Framework for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Voids

The influence of the internal structure at micrometer length scales on the deformation of polycrystalline materials can be effectively captured using crystal plasticity finite element methods (CPFEM). However, the complexity and nonlinearity of the deformation equations CPFEM solves demand significant computational power and resources to achieve accurate predictions, limiting its broader application. To address this challenge, we have identified a reduced-order representation of the complex data in order to establish a computationally efficient reduced-order models (ROM) and drastically reduce the computational expense of CPFEM. Specifically, in this work, we developed a parametric, data-driven, and non-intrusive ROM framework for CPFEM using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) and sparse variational Gaussian process (SVGP) regression for single-crystal microstructures under tensile loading conditions. The developed protocol enables one to compress field into a latent/low-dimensional space described by principal component analysis (PCA) via the singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm. As a result, the high-dimensional data are reduced to a significantly smaller amount of dimensions with POD bases and POD coefficients. Furthermore, we deployed an ensemble of SVGPs—extended from the classical Gaussian process (GP) regression for scalability and handling big data—in a massively parallel manner to train and predict latent POD coefficients using known POD bases from a set of previously obtained simulations results. Lastly, using the predicted POD coefficients, we reconstructed the full-field results and showed reasonable agreement compared with the true values obtained from running CPFEM. The developed framework is validated with a set of CPFEM simulations of a single embedded void in single-crystal aluminum alloy. While the framework is broadly applicable, this work specifically focuses on single-crystal microstructures, a single load case (e.g., tensile), and a specific void geometry (spherical).

Anisotropy

RAFT: Reconfigurable Array of High-Efficiency Ducted Turbines for Hydrokinetic Energy Harvesting

Diversifying the energy harvesting portfolio is crucial to achieving the ambitious goal of transitioning to clean energy by 2030. Marine hydrokinetic energy has garnered renewed interest due to its high harvesting potential in the U.S., and the resource's reliability and predictability—remaining relatively constant on a daily basis and available 24/7. However, there are currently few commercial devices capable of harnessing the energy from flowing water. This project aims to bridge that gap by designing and evaluating a novel hydrokinetic turbine concept that can efficiently harvest energy from both rivers and tidal streams. The RAFT (Reconfigurable Array of High-Efficiency Ducted Turbines) concept introduces a duct surrounding the turbine rotor and creates an array of small 5-kW units. The duct serves two primary purposes: (1) it enhances hydrodynamic efficiency by accelerating flow to the rotor, and (2) it functions as a structural component, facilitating the formation of modular arrays that lower costs. This project focuses on demonstrating this concept and validating these benefits through simulations and scaled prototype testing. The project team includes 8 faculty members and over 20 students from 3 universities, organized into three core areas: hydrodynamics, electrical systems, and structural analysis, with additional teams dedicated to system integration, environmental assessment and risk management, and tech-to-market strategy. The team successfully demonstrated the increased hydrodynamic efficiency of a ducted turbine compared to an unducted version using high-fidelity simulations and prototype tests. Moreover, design optimization efforts led to surpassing the SHARKS program's goal of 60% reduction of the levelized cost of energy with a significant margin.

13 HYDRO ENERGY