Recurrence rate and magma effusion rate for the latest volcanism on Arsia Mons, Mars
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Jacob A. Richardson↗
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Results for “Rates”
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Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study
The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Hourly dynamic line ratings for existing transmission across the contiguous United States (preliminary results) [Slides]
The thermal rating of a transmission line depends on the rate at which heat generated by current flow through the line can be dissipated into the environment by convective and radiative cooling, keeping the conductor below a maximum operating temperature. Static or seasonal line ratings assume nearly-worst-case weather conditions (high ambient air temperature, high solar irradiance, and low wind speed), resulting in a low risk of "overrating" a line (i.e., allowing more current to flow than the line is designed for) but a high fraction of time when the line is "underrated" (i.e., able to flow more current while staying below the maximum temperature). Dynamic transmission line ratings (DLR) use real-time measurements of weather conditions, line sag, or line temperature to determine the thermal rating of transmission lines at hourly or higher time resolution, allowing for increased ratings during some (cold, windy, and/or dark) periods and correcting for overrating during other (hot, calm, and/or sunny) periods. Many studies have explored the benefits of DLR, but typically for small collections of transmission lines under a limited sample of weather conditions, leaving open the question of how widely applicable the benefits of DLR might be over diverse geographies and weather conditions. Here, we combine geospatial data on tens of thousands of transmission line routes across the contiguous United States with high-resolution hourly historical weather data for 2007-2013 to estimate the impact of DLR and other weather-adjusted rating systems. We compare static and dynamic line ratings to intermediate ratings adjusted by ambient temperature, day/night irradiance, clear-sky irradiance, and/or measured irradiance, illustrating the benefits of incorporating progressively more detailed weather data into the calculated line ratings. Moving from nighttime-adjusted ratings to clear-sky-adjusted ratings provides more benefit than moving from clear-sky-adjusted ratings to measured-irradiance-adjusted ratings. Depending on the assumed static windspeed for irradiance-adjusted-ratings, DLR either corrects for overrated hours or provides substantially increased ratings in the majority of hours on the majority of lines.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Concurrent measurement of strain and chemical reaction rates in a calcite grain pack undergoing pressure solution: Evidence for surface-reaction controlled dissolution
Pressure solution is inferred to be a significant contributor to sediment compaction and lithification, especially in carbonate sediments. For a sediment deforming primarily by pressure solution, the compaction rate should be directly related to the rate of calcite dissolution, transport along grain contacts, and calcite reprecipitation. Previous experimental work has shown that there is evidence that deformation in wet calcite grain packs is consistent with control by pressure solution, but considerable ambiguity remains regarding the rate limiting mechanism. We present the results of laboratory compaction experiments designed to directly measure calcite dissolution and precipitation rates (recrystallization rates) concurrently with strain rate to test whether measured rates are consistent with predicted rates both in absolute magnitude and time evolution. Recrystallization rates are measured using trace element chemistry (Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca) and isotopes (87Sr/86Sr) of fluids flowing slowly through a compacting grain pack as it is being triaxially compressed. Imaging techniques are used to characterize the grain contacts and strain effects in the post-experiment grain pack. Our data show that calcite recrystallization rates calculated from all three geochemical parameters are in approximate agreement and that the rates closely track strain rate. The geochemically inferred rates are close to predicted rates in absolute magnitude. Uncertainty in grain contact dimensions makes distinguishing between surface reaction control and diffusion control difficult. Measured reaction rates decrease faster than predicted from standard pressure solution creep flow laws. This inconsistency may indicate that calcite dissolution rates at grain contacts are more complex, and more time-dependent, than suggested by geometric models designed to predict grain contact stresses.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Thermonuclear 28 P(p, γ ) 29 S reaction rate and astrophysical implication in ONe nova explosion
An accurate 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate is crucial to defining the nucleosynthesis products of explosive hydrogen burning in ONe novae. Using the recently released nuclear mass of 29 S, together with a shell model and a direct capture calculation, we reanalyzed the 28 P(p, γ) 29 S thermonuclear reaction rate and its astrophysical implication. We focus on improving the astrophysical rate for 28 P(p, γ) 29 S based on the newest nuclear mass data. Our goal is to explore the impact of the new rate and associated uncertainties on the nova nucleosynthesis. We evaluated this reaction rate via the sum of the isolated resonance contribution instead of the previously used Hauser-Feshbach statistical model. The corresponding rate uncertainty at different energies was derived using a Monte Carlo method. Nova nucleosynthesis is computed with the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA. The contribution from the capture on the first excited state at 105.64 keV in 28 P is taken into account for the first time. We find that the capture rate on the first excited state in 28 P is up to more than 12 times larger than the ground-state capture rate in the temperature region of 2.5 × 10 7 K to 4 × 10 8 K, resulting in the total 28 P(p, γ) 29 S reaction rate being enhanced by a factor of up to 1.4 at ~1 × 10 9 K. In addition, the rate uncertainty has been quantified for the first time. It is found that the new rate is smaller than the previous statistical model rates, but it still agrees with them within uncertainties for nova temperatures. The statistical model appears to be roughly valid for the rate estimation of this reaction in the nova nucleosynthesis scenario. Using the 1D hydrodynamic code SHIVA, we performed the nucleosynthesis calculations in a nova explosion to investigate the impact of the new rates of 28 P(p, γ) 29 S. Our calculations show that the nova abundance pattern is only marginally affected if we use our new rates with respect to the same simulations but statistical model rates. Finally, the isotopes whose abundance is most influenced by the present 28 P(p, γ) 29 S uncertainty are 28 Si, 33,34 S, 35,37 Cl, and 36 Ar, with relative abundance changes at the level of only 3% to 4%.
Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
Quantifying Leak Rates and Vacuum Impact on Granular Soil Column Pneumatic Seal
Introduction: All In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) regolith reactor systems that aim to extract gases or vapors must maintain a seal along the flow path of the regolith from the inlet hopper to where extracted gases or vapors are generated. Using a column of regolith at the inlet has been proposed as an alternative to systems using series of mechanical valves to reduce mass and complexity. Preliminary investigations into the use of regolith itself as a barrier to escaping fluids have been conducted, which this research seeks to expand upon. Different vertical regolith simulant plug diameters and heights were tested under vacuum with dry nitrogen to observe leak rates and approximate steady state pressure gradient equilibria. The effect of absolute ambient pressure was also studied by repeating tests at incremental pressures ranging from 10e-5 Torr up to 1 atm to corroborate ambient bench tests from previous work. The impact of regolith dynamics was addressed to emulate continuous-feed regolith reaction processes by measuring leak rates through continuously draining simulant columns. OB-1 lunar highlands regolith simulant was used. Experimental Setup: Regolith simulant columns were constructed using a motorized butterfly valve separating upper acrylic tubes of various diameters from a larger, lower aluminum pipe plenum (See Figure 1). The butterfly valve was cracked open such that gas could freely pass through whereas regolith would bridge and stay suspended as a cohesive plug above in the acrylic portion. These assemblies were loaded into a vacuum chamber, and a compressed dry nitrogen line was routed into the lower plenum. Pressure transducers measured the absolute pressure of the lower plenum, which was compared to absolute chamber pressure to monitor the pressure gradient across the regolith simulant. A precision mass flow controller enabled fine control of plenum pressure. The plenum pressure was quasi-statically increased to set points informed by previous work [1] before shutting off the gas supply to allow the now pressurized gas volume to dissipate through the simulant into the chamber in what was referred to as a ‘leak test.’ In a separate set of tests, the pressure was allowed to quasi-statically build until visual disturbances in the soil were observed via remote camera feeds. Initial leak rate tests were repeated on the disturbed soil to observe changes in leak rates between initial as-poured and post-bubbling soil conditions. This test schedule was applied to simulant columns of three different diameters (approximately 2, 4, and 6 inches) as well as two different heights (around 8 and 16 inches) and was repeated at least three times for each configuration. Plenums were also pressurized while the butterfly valves were opened slightly further to facilitate slow, controlled, constant flowrate draining of the simulant to observe the impact that continuous-feed systems might have on leak rate through the regolith column. Finally, the regolith columns were reset and refilled and static leak rate tests were repeated approximately every decade in ambient pressure from 10e-5 Torr up to ambient conditions to observe the impact of transitioning out of the molecular flow regime on regolith column seal performance. Analysis: Trends with respect to each factor examined were constructed and reported alongside commentary on the most likely responsible physical phenomena. Confidence intervals were applied to the predictive findings of the data by quantifying instrumentation error and accounting for probabilistic impacts of curve fitting the generic exponential function onto pressure decay data. The leak rate is assumed directly proportional to the exponential term coefficient, while the steady-state static pressure gradient is assumed to be the asymptotic limit of each curve fit. Finally, a generic model developed by Ogino et al. [2] and later tuned for ambient testing was re-tuned using vacuum data to estimate leak rates on the lunar surface. Results: Pressure decay rates decreased up to 27-fold under vacuum when compared to ambient pressure, as shown in Figure 2. Simulant column diameter was found to exponentially correlate to both regolith column leak rate and steady-state equilibrium pressure delta. Height was found to be linearly related to leak rate –doubling the regolith column height consistently yielded around a 40% reduction in leak rate. Dynamic regolith draining was found to slightly increase leak rate, although to a lower degree than expected. Conclusion: Because of the transition into molecular gas flow through regolith, vacuum testing is required to properly estimate performance. Regolith columns should be designed as narrow as possible to avoid bridging and minimize leak rate, and as tall as is feasible to both further reduce leak rate and to help prevent bubbling, which has been shown to degrade the quality of the regolith seal. Disrupted soil was found to exhibit higher leak rates than pristine, as-poured soil, indicating the need to consider the impact of recovery from depressurization events. Regolith columns appear equally feasible for both dosed and continuous-feed reactors.
ISRU↗
Deliberate Design: Creating Electricity Rates with Purpose
Today’s electricity rates often are legacy designs that do not reflect the dynamics of an evolving power grid or align with current policy objectives. Four steps will assist utilities, regulators, and industry stakeholders in modernizing outdated electricity rate designs. 1. Understand the context for rate design change: The power system is changing at a pace that the industry has not experienced for decades. It is essential to understand the implications of these changes so rates can evolve to remain consistent with changes to the underlying cost profile, customer preferences, and power system requirements. 2. Establish ratemaking objectives: Rates can do more than recover utility costs. They can be a tool for promoting desired outcomes such as improved energy affordability, flexible and efficient electricity consumption, or promoting technology adoption. First, these objectives must be clearly defined and prioritized. 3. Account for tradeoffs when designing new rates: Rate design is the art of balancing tradeoffs. It is essential to understand these tradeoffs when designing new rates, particularly if the rates are being used as a tool for accomplishing policy objectives that extend beyond the basic goal of cost reflectivity. 4. Transition to the new rates with a plan: The move to well-designed rates requires a transition plan. This will ensure that rate design changes do not happen in isolation and are consistent with a long-term, holistic vision. The report, published as an interactive web tool for which the content can be separately downloaded as a standalone document, is intended to allow state energy regulators, utility rates staff, and other industry stakeholders with an interest in rate design to selectively “drill down” on content that is relevant to their interests and situation.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Relative rates for plasma homo- and copolymerizations of olefins in a homologous series of fluorinated ethylenes
It is well known that the rate of plasma polymerization, or deposition rate, of a given monomer depends on various plasma process parameters, e.g., monomer flow rate, pressure, power, frequency (DC, rf or microwave), location of the substrate in the reactor, reactor geometry or configuration, and temperature. In contrast, little work has been done to relate deposition rates to monomer structures for a homologous series of monomers where the rates are obtained under identical plasma process parameters. For the particular series of fluorinated ethylenes (C2HxF4-x; x = 0-4), deposition rates were reported for ethylene (ET), vinyl fluoride, vinylidene fluoride and tetrafluoroethylene (TFE), but for plasma polymerizations carried out under different discharge conditions, e.g., pressure, current density, and electrode temperature. Apparently, relative deposition rates were reported for only two members of that series (ET, x = 4, and TFE, x = 0) for which the plasma polymerizations were conducted under identical conditions. We now present relative deposition rates for both homopolymerizations and copolymerizations of the entire series of fluorinated ethylenes (x = 0-4). Our interest in such rates stems from prior work on the plasma copolymerization of ET and TFE in which it was found that the deposition rates for the plasma copolymers, when plotted versus mol % TFE in the ET/TFE feed stock, followed a concave-downward curve situated above the straight line joining the deposition rates for the plasma homopolymers. This type of plot (observed also for an argon-ET/TFE plasma copolymerization) indicated a positive interaction between ET and TFE such that each monomer apparently "sensitized" the plasma copolymerization of the other. Since the shape of that plot is not altered if mol % TFE is replaced by F/C, the fluorine-to-carbon ratio, this paper aims (1) to show how the relative deposition rates for plasma copolymers drawn from all pairs of monomers in the C2HxF4-x series, as well as the deposition rates for the individual plasma homopolymers, vary with F/C ratios of the monomers or monomer blends, and (2) to see if those rates give rise to a common plot.
NASA Center ARC↗
Estimating Rain Rates from Tipping-Bucket Rain Gauge Measurements
This paper describes the cubic spline based operational system for the generation of the TRMM one-minute rain rate product 2A-56 from Tipping Bucket (TB) gauge measurements. Methodological issues associated with applying the cubic spline to the TB gauge rain rate estimation are closely examined. A simulated TB gauge from a Joss-Waldvogel (JW) disdrometer is employed to evaluate effects of time scales and rain event definitions on errors of the rain rate estimation. The comparison between rain rates measured from the JW disdrometer and those estimated from the simulated TB gauge shows good overall agreement; however, the TB gauge suffers sampling problems, resulting in errors in the rain rate estimation. These errors are very sensitive to the time scale of rain rates. One-minute rain rates suffer substantial errors, especially at low rain rates. When one minute rain rates are averaged to 4-7 minute or longer time scales, the errors dramatically reduce. The rain event duration is very sensitive to the event definition but the event rain total is rather insensitive, provided that the events with less than 1 millimeter rain totals are excluded. Estimated lower rain rates are sensitive to the event definition whereas the higher rates are not. The median relative absolute errors are about 22% and 32% for 1-minute TB rain rates higher and lower than 3 mm per hour, respectively. These errors decrease to 5% and 14% when TB rain rates are used at 7-minute scale. The radar reflectivity-rainrate (Ze-R) distributions drawn from large amount of 7-minute TB rain rates and radar reflectivity data are mostly insensitive to the event definition.
Wang, Jianxin↗
Effects of dose rate on the microstructure and deuterium retention in γ-LiAlO 2 pellets
This report presents experimental findings obtained from November 2024 to September 2025. Defect accumulation and microstructural evolution during ion irradiation at elevated temperatures are governed by two competing processes: defect production, driven by dose rate, and defect recovery, controlled by defect diffusion, interaction, and annihilation. At a given dose, the resulting microstructural evolution depends on both the dose rate and irradiation temperature. As a continuation of our FY24 tritium science project, which investigated temperature effects at a fixed dose rate, this study focuses on dose-rate effects at a fixed temperature to provide deeper insights into the irradiated microstructure and compositional changes in γ-LiAlO 2 pellets. The study aims to elucidate the impact of dose rate on microstructure, precipitate morphology, deuterium retention, and lithium volatility in γ-LiAlO 2 pellets under sequential 120 keV He + and 80 keV D 2 + ion irradiation. Three dose rates of 7.3×10 4 , 2.9×10 4 and 6.8×10 5 dpa/s were applied to achieve the same total ion fluence of 2×10 17 (He + +D + )/cm 2 at 500 °C, corresponding to a maximum combined dose of 7.55 dpa at ~255 nm. The irradiated pellets were subsequently characterized using scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) and time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS). The microstructural response of γ-LiAlO 2 to ion irradiation was found to be strongly dose-rate dependent. At medium and high dose rates, irradiation produced a surface amorphized layer and an underlying crystalline layer containing LiAl 5 O 8 precipitates, with implanted gases accumulating and forming blisters at the crystalline-amorphous interface. It remains to be investigated whether the amorphized layer was produced by He + ion irradiation prior to D 2 + ion irradiation. In contrast, at low dose rates, the material remained crystalline, with cavities, likely gas-filled, distributed around precipitates, within the γ-LiAlO 2 matrix, and along grain boundaries. While precipitate morphology exhibited anisotropy, their size showed little sensitivity to dose rate in the applied range of this study. This result, however, does not rule out the possibility that further reductions in dose rate could influence precipitate size. High dose-rate irradiation enhanced protonium–deuterium isotopic exchange and lithium depletion in the amorphized region. Collectively, the results show that dose rate governs amorphization, gas redistribution, isotopic exchange, and lithium depletion, providing important insights into the mechanisms underlying structural evolution in γ-LiAlO 2 pellets under reactor-relevant irradiation conditions.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Gender- and age-related differences in heart rate dynamics: are women more complex than men?
OBJECTIVES. This study aimed to quantify the complex dynamics of beat-to-beat sinus rhythm heart rate fluctuations and to determine their differences as a function of gender and age. BACKGROUND. Recently, measures of heart rate variability and the nonlinear "complexity" of heart rate dynamics have been used as indicators of cardiovascular health. Because women have lower cardiovascular risk and greater longevity than men, we postulated that there are important gender-related differences in beat-to-beat heart rate dynamics. METHODS. We analyzed heart rate dynamics during 8-min segments of continuous electrocardiographic recording in healthy young (20 to 39 years old), middle-aged (40 to 64 years old) and elderly (65 to 90 years old) men (n = 40) and women (n = 27) while they performed spontaneous and metronomic (15 breaths/min) breathing. Relatively high (0.15 to 0.40 Hz) and low (0.01 to 0.15 Hz) frequency components of heart rate variability were computed using spectral analysis. The overall "complexity" of each heart rate time series was quantified by its approximate entropy, a measure of regularity derived from nonlinear dynamics ("chaos" theory). RESULTS. Mean heart rate did not differ between the age groups or genders. High frequency heart rate power and the high/low frequency power ratio decreased with age in both men and women (p < 0.05). The high/low frequency power ratio during spontaneous and metronomic breathing was greater in women than men (p < 0.05). Heart rate approximate entropy decreased with age and was higher in women than men (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS. High frequency heart rate spectral power (associated with parasympathetic activity) and the overall complexity of heart rate dynamics are higher in women than men. These complementary findings indicate the need to account for gender-as well as age-related differences in heart rate dynamics. Whether these gender differences are related to lower cardiovascular disease risk and greater longevity in women requires further study.
NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
High Time Resolution Modelled and Measured New Particle Formation Rates During the 2023 Pittsburgh, PA Campaign
Particle size distributions are used to calculate nucleation rates during new particle formation (NPF). However, the low time resolution and poor sensitivity of instruments deployed to observe particle size distributions can lead to inaccurate estimates of nucleation rates. We calculated nucleation rates in Pittsburgh, PA from particle size distributions measured with the new high time resolution Condensation Particle Counters For Atmospheric Rapid Measurements (CPC FARM) and from gas precursor concentrations measured with a chemical ionization mass spectrometer. The CPC FARM nucleation rates were calculated by examining the appearance rate of particles in the smallest size bin at 1.6 nm. The nucleation rate of 1.6 nm determined every second resulted in positive and negative rates, indicating the influence of inhomogeneous mixing and advection of precursor gases and clusters. These effects are not currently considered when estimating nucleation rates from measurements. The nucleation rates from the CPC FARM were compared to the nucleation rates determined from a transient acid‐base reaction model using measured sulfuric acid concentration, strong base concentrations, and CPC detection efficiencies. The transient form of the model allowed the advection of heterogeneously mixed precursors to influence the nucleation rate. Good agreement between particle and gas‐based nucleation rates is observed during sulfuric acid‐driven NPF events. This study demonstrates that high time resolution measurements of short‐lived and rapidly formed particles are needed to accurately capture nucleation rates, which are likely influenced by advection of nucleation precursors and clusters in heterogeneous environments such as urban areas.
Cheng, D. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (↗
Temperature effects on high strain rate properties of graphite/epoxy composites
A unidirectional graphite epoxy material (AS4/3501-6) was characterized at strain rates ranging from 5 x 10(exp 6) s(exp -1) to 5(exp -1), at room temperature and at 128 C. Results are presented in the form of stress-strain curves to failure. The longitudinal properties remain nearly unchanged with strain rate and temperature. The transverse modulus increases with strain rate but decreases with temperature. The transverse strength and transverse ultimate tensile strain have a positive rate sensitivity at low rates, which changes to negative at intermediate rates and returns to positive rate sensitivity at the highest rates tested. A temperature-time equivalence principle was applied and master curves were obtained for the transverse mechanical properties. The in-plane shear modulus and in-plane shear strength have a positive rate sensitivity. The ultimate intralaminar shear strain has a positive rate sensitivity at low rates, which changes to negative at high rates. At the elevated temperature of 128 C, the ultimate shear strain is 25 to 30 percent higher than the room temperature value, but its strain rate dependence is moderate.
Yaniv, G.↗
Validation of Test Methods for Air Leak Rate Verification of Spaceflight Hardware
As deep space exploration continues to be the goal of NASAs human spaceflight program, verification of the performance of spaceflight hardware becomes increasingly critical. Suitable test methods for verifying the leak rate of sealing systems are identified in program qualification testing requirements. One acceptable method for verifying the air leak rate of gas pressure seals is the tracer gas leak detector method. In this method, a tracer gas (commonly helium) leaks past the test seal and is transported to the leak detector where the leak rate is quantified. To predict the air leak rate, a conversion factor of helium-to-air is applied depending on the magnitude of the helium flow rate. The conversion factor is based on either the molecular mass ratio or the ratio of the dynamic viscosities. The current work was aimed at validating this approach for permeation-level leak rates using a series of tests with a silicone elastomer O-ring. An established pressure decay method with constant differential pressure was used to evaluate both the air and helium leak rates of the O-ring under similar temperature and pressure conditions. The results from the pressure decay tests showed, for the elastomer O-ring, that neither the molecular flow nor the viscous flow helium-to-air conversion factors were applicable. Leak rate tests were also performed using nitrogen and argon as the test gas. Molecular mass and viscosity based helium-to-test gas conversion factors were applied, but did not correctly predict the measured leak rates of either gas. To further this study, the effect of pressure boundary conditions was investigated. Often, pressure decay leak rate tests are performed at a differential pressure of 101.3 kPa with atmospheric pressure on the downstream side of the test seal. In space applications, the differential pressure is similar, but with vacuum as the downstream pressure. The same O-ring was tested at four unique differential pressures ranging from 34.5 to 137.9 kPa. Up to six combinations of upstream and downstream pressures for each differential pressure were compared. For a given differential pressure, the various combinations of upstream and downstream dry air pressures did not significantly affect the leak rate. As expected, the leak rate of the O-ring increased with increasing differential pressure. The results suggested that the current leak test pressure conditions, used to verify spacecraft sealing systems with elastomer seals, produce accurate values even though the boundary conditions do not model the space application.
helium leak detector↗
Application of Statistical Methods of Rain Rate Estimation to Data From The TRMM Precipitation Radar
The TRMM Precipitation Radar is well suited to statistical methods in that the measurements over any given region are sparsely sampled in time. Moreover, the instantaneous rain rate estimates are often of limited accuracy at high rain rates because of attenuation effects and at light rain rates because of receiver sensitivity. For the estimation of the time-averaged rain characteristics over an area both errors are relevant. By enlarging the space-time region over which the data are collected, the sampling error can be reduced. However. the bias and distortion of the estimated rain distribution generally will remain if estimates at the high and low rain rates are not corrected. In this paper we use the TRMM PR data to investigate the behavior of 2 statistical methods the purpose of which is to estimate the rain rate over large space-time domains. Examination of large-scale rain characteristics provides a useful starting point. The high correlation between the mean and standard deviation of rain rate implies that the conditional distribution of this quantity can be approximated by a one-parameter distribution. This property is used to explore the behavior of the area-time-integral (ATI) methods where fractional area above a threshold is related to the mean rain rate. In the usual application of the ATI method a correlation is established between these quantities. However, if a particular form of the rain rate distribution is assumed and if the ratio of the mean to standard deviation is known, then not only the mean but the full distribution can be extracted from a measurement of fractional area above a threshold. The second method is an extension of this idea where the distribution is estimated from data over a range of rain rates chosen in an intermediate range where the effects of attenuation and poor sensitivity can be neglected. The advantage of estimating the distribution itself rather than the mean value is that it yields the fraction of rain contributed by the light and heavy rain rates. This is useful in estimating the fraction of rainfall contributed by the rain rates that go undetected by the radar. The results at high rain rates provide a cross-check on the usual attenuation correction methods that are applied at the highest resolution of the instrument.
Meneghini, R.↗
Temperature and Atomic Oxygen Effects on Helium Leak Rates of a Candidate Main Interface Seal
Helium leak tests were completed to characterize the leak rate of a 54 in. diameter composite space docking seal design in support of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA's) Low Impact Docking System (LIDS). The evaluated seal design was a candidate for the main interface seal on the LIDS, which would be compressed between two vehicles, while docked, to prevent the escape of breathable air from the vehicles and into the vacuum of space. Leak tests completed at nominal temperatures of -30, 20, and 50 C on untreated and atomic oxygen (AO) exposed test samples were examined to determine the influence of both test temperature and AO exposure on the performance of the composite seal assembly. Results obtained for untreated seal samples showed leak rates which increased with increased test temperature. This general trend was not observed in tests of the AO exposed specimens. Initial examination of collected test data suggested that AO exposure resulted in higher helium leak rates, however, further analysis showed that the differences observed in the 20 and 50 C tests between the untreated and AO exposed samples were within the experimental error of the test method. Lack of discernable trends in the test data prevented concrete conclusions about the effects of test temperature and AO exposure on helium leak rates of the candidate seal design from being drawn. To facilitate a comparison of the current test data with results from previous leak tests using air as the test fluid, helium leak rates were converted to air leak rates using standard conversion factors for viscous and molecular flow. Flow rates calculated using the viscous flow conversion factor were significantly higher than the experimental air leakage values, whereas values calculated using the molecular flow conversion factor were significantly lower than the experimentally obtained air leak rates. The difference in these sets of converted flow rates and their deviation from the experimentally obtained air leak rate data suggest that neither conversion factor can be used alone to accurately convert helium leak rates to equivalent air leak rates for the test seals evaluated in this study; other leak phenomena, including permeation, must also be considered.
Penney, Nicholas↗
More Data Needed for Failure Rate Estimation, Validation, and Uncertainty Reduction
Current Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) development and test activities are not generating data fast enough to provide statistically-supportable precise Orbital Replacement Unit (ORU) failure rate estimates for future missions. Accurate and precise failure rate estimates are critical for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) because current risk mitigation approaches – namely regular resupply and rapid abort capabilities – will not be available. Safe operations will depend on mission planners’ ability to accurately forecast spares demand and efficiently provide the necessary resources. However, even after more than a decade of operations on board the International Space Station (ISS), a significant amount of uncertainty remains in failure rate estimates. Uncertain or inaccurate failure rates result in increased risk and spares mass for future missions. A Bayesian failure rate estimation approach, such as the one currently implemented by the ISS Program, can help reduce uncertainty by incorporating engineering judgement into failure rate estimates. However, experience on the ISS and with other complex systems shows that these prior failure rate estimates are often inaccurate. In addition, prior failure rate estimates are typically point values; some level of uncertainty must be added to convert these into probability distributions for Bayesian updating, and there are several potential methods for doing so. Due to the low rate of data collection, these subjective (and often inaccurate) prior estimates currently have a strong influence on the end result. This paper examines the challenges associated with failure rate estimation, validation, and uncertainty reduction in the context of ECLSS development for beyond-LEO missions. A variety of techniques for generating and updating Bayesian priors are discussed and evaluated using both real-world and simulated data. Potential solutions for improving failure rate estimation, including testing additional units, are analyzed and discussed, and a set of recommendations are provided for next-generation system development activities.
Supportability↗
The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)
This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.
Nuclear astrophysics↗