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Life Cycle Water Consumption and Water Resource Assessment for Utility-Scale Geothermal Systems: An In-Depth Analysis of Historical and Forthcoming EGS Projects

This report is the third in a series of reports sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program in which a range of water-related issues surrounding geothermal power production are evaluated. The first report made an initial attempt at quantifying the life cycle fresh water requirements of geothermal power-generating systems and explored operational and environmental concerns related to the geochemical composition of geothermal fluids. The initial analysis of life cycle fresh water consumption of geothermal power-generating systems identified that operational water requirements consumed the vast majority of water across the life cycle. However, it relied upon limited operational water consumption data and did not account for belowground operational losses for enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). A second report presented an initial assessment of fresh water demand for future growth in utility-scale geothermal power generation. The current analysis builds upon this work to improve life cycle fresh water consumption estimates and incorporates regional water availability into the resource assessment to improve the identification of areas where future growth in geothermal electricity generation may encounter water challenges.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Distributed Wind Resource Assessment: State of the Industry

In support of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Wind and Water Power Technologies Office (WWPTO) goals, researchers from DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) are investigating the Distributed Wind Resource Assessment (DWRA) process, which includes pre-construction energy estimation as well as turbine site suitability assessment. DWRA can have a direct impact on the Wind Program goals of maximizing stakeholder confidence in turbine performance and safety as well as reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). One of the major components of the LCOE equation is annual energy production. DWRA improvements can maximize the annual energy production, thereby lowering the overall LCOE and improving stakeholder confidence in the distributed wind technology sector by providing more accurate predictions of power production. Over the long term, one of the most significant benefits of a more defined DWRA process could be new turbine designs, tuned to site-specific characteristics that will help the distributed wind industry follow a similar trajectory to the low-wind-speed designs in the utility-scale industry sector. By understanding the wind resource better, the industry could install larger rotors, capture more energy, and as a result, increase deployment while lowering the LCOE. a direct impact on the Wind Program goals of maximizing stakeholder confidence in turbine performance and safety as well as reducing the levelized cost of energy (LCOE). One of the major components of the LCOE equation is annual energy production. DWRA improvements can maximize the annual energy production, thereby lowering the overall LCOE and improving stakeholder confidence in the distributed wind technology sector by providing more accurate predictions of power production. Over the long term, one of the most significant benefits of a more defined DWRA process could be new turbine designs, tuned to site-specific characteristics that will help the distributed wind industry follow a similar trajectory to the low-wind-speed designs in the utility-scale industry sector. By understanding the wind resource better, the industry could install larger rotors, capture more energy, and as a result, increase deployment while lowering the LCOE.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mission Adaptive UAS Platform for Earth Science Resource Assessment

NASA Ames Research Center has led a number of important Earth science remote sensing missions including several directed at the assessment of natural resources. A key asset for accessing high risk airspace has been the 180 kg class SIERRA UAS platform, providing mission durations of up to 8 hrs at altitudes up to 3 km. Recent improvements to this mission capability are embodied in the incipient SIERRA-B variant. Two resource mapping problems having unusual mission characteristics requiring a mission adaptive capability are explored here. One example involves the requirement for careful control over solar angle geometry for passive reflectance measurements. This challenges the management of resources in the coastal ocean where solar angle combines with sea state to produce surface glint that can obscure the ocean color signal. Furthermore, as for all scanning imager applications, the primary flight control priority to fly the UAS directly to the next waypoint should compromise with the requirement to minimize roll and crab effects in the imagery. A second example involves the mapping of natural resources in the Earth's crust using precision magnetometry. In this case the vehicle flight path must be oriented to optimize magnetic flux gradients over a spatial domain having continually emerging features, while optimizing the efficiency of the spatial mapping task. These requirements were highlighted in several recent Earth Science missions including the October 2013 OCEANIA mission directed at improving the capability for hyperspectral reflectance measurements in the coastal ocean, and the Surprise Valley Mission directed at mapping sub-surface mineral composition and faults, using high-sensitivity magentometry. This paper reports the development of specific aircraft control approaches to incorporate the unusual and demanding requirements to manage solar angle, aircraft attitude and flight path orientation, and efficient (directly geo-rectified) surface and sub-surface mapping, including the near-time optimization of these sometimes conflicting requirements. *

Flight Control↗

Wind Resource Assessment Report: Mille Lacs Indian Reservation, Minnesota

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) launched the RE-Powering America's Land initiative to encourage development of renewable energy on potentially contaminated land and mine sites. EPA collaborated with the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Mille Lacs Band of Chippewa Indians to evaluate the wind resource and examine the feasibility of a wind project at a contaminated site located on the Mille Lacs Indian Reservation in Minnesota. The wind monitoring effort involved the installation of a 60-m met tower and the collection of 18 months of wind data at multiple heights above the ground. This report focuses on the wind resource assessment, the estimated energy production of wind turbines, and an assessment of the economic feasibility of a potential wind project sited this site.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Moessbauer Spectroscopy for Lunar Resource Assessment: Measurement of Mineralogy and Soil Maturity

First-order assessment of lunar soil as a resource includes measurement of its mineralogy and maturity. Soils in which the mineral ilmenite is present in high concentrations are desirable feedstock for the production of oxygen at a lunar base. The maturity of lunar soils is a measure of their relative residence time in the upper 1 mm of the lunar surface. Increasing maturity implies increasing load of solar wind species (e.g., N, H, and He-3), decreasing mean grain size, and increasing glass content. All these physicochemical properties that vary in a regular way with maturity are important parameters for assessing lunar soil as a resource. For example, He-3 can be extracted and potentially used for nuclear fusion. A commonly used index for lunar soil maturity is I(sub s)/FeO, which is the concentration of fine-grained metal determined by ferromagnetic resonance (I(sub s)) normalized to the total iron content (as FeO). I(sub s)/FeO has been measured for virtually every soil returned by the Apollo and Luna missions to the Moon. Because the technique is sensitive to both oxidation state and mineralogy, iron Moessbauer spectroscopy (FeMS) is a viable technique for in situ lunar resource assessment. Its utility for mineralogy is apparent from examination of published FeMS data for lunar samples. From the data published, it can be inferred that FeMS data can also be used to determine soil maturity. The use of FeMS to determine mineralogy and maturity and progress on development of a FeMS instrument for lunar surface use are discussed.

Morris, R. V.↗

Fort Carson Wind Resource Assessment

The U.S. Army has long been interested in reducing its dependence on fossil fuels for energy, increasing its energy security, and reducing its energy intensity. Increasing the use of renewable energy at Army bases serves all of these goals. As part of these efforts, the Army has been collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate renewable energy options at Fort Carson, Colorado. This report focuses on the wind resource assessment, the estimated energy production of wind turbines, and economic potential of a wind turbine project on a ridge in the southeastern portion of the Fort Carson Army base. Wind data was collected from a 50-meter (m) meteorological (met) tower on a small ridge in the southeastern part of the Fort Carson base. A mini sonic detection and ranging (miniSODAR) unit was also deployed at this site to measure wind speeds at elevations 30 to 140 m (98 to 459 ft) above the ground. The data collected provided an effective dataset for comparative analysis of wind speed, turbulence intensity, and energy production of several wind turbines suitable for the wind conditions at the site.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

On the Use of the Beta Distribution in Probabilistic Resource Assessments

The triangular distribution is a popular choice when it comes to modeling bounded continuous random variables. Its wide acceptance derives mostly from its simple analytic properties and the ease with which modelers can specify its three parameters through the extremes and the mode. On the negative side, hardly any real process follows a triangular distribution, which from the outset puts at a disadvantage any model employing triangular distributions. At a time when numerical techniques such as the Monte Carlo method are displacing analytic approaches in stochastic resource assessments, easy specification remains the most attractive characteristic of the triangular distribution. The beta distribution is another continuous distribution defined within a finite interval offering wider flexibility in style of variation, thus allowing consideration of models in which the random variables closely follow the observed or expected styles of variation. Despite its more complex definition, generation of values following a beta distribution is as straightforward as generating values following a triangular distribution, leaving the selection of parameters as the main impediment to practically considering beta distributions. This contribution intends to promote the acceptance of the beta distribution by explaining its properties and offering several suggestions to facilitate the specification of its two shape parameters. In general, given the same distributional parameters, use of the beta distributions in stochastic modeling may yield significantly different results, yet better estimates, than the triangular distribution.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment for the United States. Final Report on HydroWIRES Project D1: Improving Hydropower and PSH Representations in Capacity Expansion Models

Pumped storage hydropower represents the bulk of the United States' current energy storage capacity: 23 gigawatts (GW) of the 24-GW national total (Denholm et al. 2021). This capacity was largely built between 1960 and 1990. PSH is a mature and proven method of energy storage with competitive round-trip efficiency and long life spans. These qualities make PSH a very attractive potential solution to energy storage needs, particularly for longer-duration storage (8 hours or more); such storage will be crucial to bridge gaps in electricity production as variable wind and solar production continue to comprise an ever-larger portion of the United States' energy portfolio (Cole et al. 2021; Frazier et al. 2021). However, it is unclear how much potential the United States has for the development of new PSH. No new large PSH has been constructed in the United States since the 1990s, and attempts to quantify technical potential capacity from PSH project applications to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) suffer from inconsistent site and cost evaluation methodologies and likely are not representative of all PSH opportunities. This study seeks to better under understand the technical potential for PSH development in the United States by developing a national-scale resource assessment for closed-loop PSH. Individual sites are not modeled in sufficient detail for project-level development, but they do provide valuable insights into potential resource areas across the United States, including the ability to provide estimates for a range of long-term development scenarios.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Improvement of aerosol optical depth data for localized solar resource assessment

Solar irradiance, especially for direct normal irradiance (DNI), is sensitive to the atmospheric aerosols, which can strongly extinguish DNI over areas with elevated aerosol loadings. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), uses AOD from MERRA-2 reanalysis and is further downscaled from 0.5° to 2-km based on elevation. However, the elevation-based downscaling may not accurately represent AOD, especially over the areas with large AOD gradients. This study examined whether the 1-km MODIS MAIAC satellite-retrieved AOD product can better represent the AOD distribution and be used to improve solar irradiance assessment. We focused on areas with relatively high AOD over North America (California, and New York City, US, and Mexico City in Mexico, in particular). The evaluation of MAIAC AOD and MERRA-2 AOD against ground-truth AERONET AOD shows that MAIAC AOD exhibits smaller RMSE by about 0.05 and higher correlation coefficient by 0.1-0.6 than MERRA-2 AOD. In addition, MERRA-2 AOD shows larger negative bias. The simulated DNI using MAIAC AOD (DNIMAIAC) and using MERRA-2 AOD (DNINSRDB) were evaluated with DNI observations. The results show the performance of DNIMAIAC is better than that of DNINSRDB with smaller RMSE by 0.5-1.5%, smaller positive mean bias by 0.8-3.1% and comparable correlation for the 3 sites analyzed. Overall, 1-km MAIAC AOD shows higher accuracy than 2-km elevation-based MERRA-2 AOD, leading to better performance of the simulated DNI using MAIAC AOD. Therefore, 1-km MAIAC AOD can be used to improve the accuracy of solar resource assessment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Use of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Retrievals to Evaluate Model Estimates by the Australian Water Resources Assessment System

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates retrievals from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission were compared to TWS modeled by the Australian Water Resources Assessment (AWRA) system. The aim was to test whether differences could be attributed and used to identify model deficiencies. Data for 2003 2010 were decomposed into the seasonal cycle, linear trends and the remaining de-trended anomalies before comparing. AWRA tended to have smaller seasonal amplitude than GRACE. GRACE showed a strong (greater than 15 millimeter per year) drying trend in northwest Australia that was associated with a preceding period of unusually wet conditions, whereas weaker drying trends in the southern Murray Basin and southwest Western Australia were associated with relatively dry conditions. AWRA estimated trends were less negative for these regions, while a more positive trend was estimated for areas affected by cyclone Charlotte in 2009. For 2003-2009, a decrease of 7-8 millimeter per year (50-60 cubic kilometers per year) was estimated from GRACE, enough to explain 6-7% of the contemporary rate of global sea level rise. This trend was not reproduced by the model. Agreement between model and data suggested that the GRACE retrieval error estimates are biased high. A scaling coefficient applied to GRACE TWS to reduce the effect of signal leakage appeared to degrade quantitative agreement for some regions. Model aspects identified for improvement included a need for better estimation of rainfall in northwest Australia, and more sophisticated treatment of diffuse groundwater discharge processes and surface-groundwater connectivity for some regions.

van Dijk, A. I. J. M.↗

Oakridge Geothermal Resources Assessment

Through the Communities Local Energy Action Program (LEAP), NREL provided technical assistance to a coalition of stakeholders from Oakridge, Oregon. The coalition included community-based non-profit organizations, the city government, the local utility, and others. Technical assistance provides analysis and information to support Oakridge stakeholders with their goals to increase energy reliability and resilience in the community, while promoting economic development. The Geothermal Resource Assessment provides technical analysis related to the geothermal resource in the Oakridge area, possible technology applications, and information related to further geothermal exploration. Technical analysis includes a review of a previous geothermal study conducted for Oakridge, thermal modeling to estimate reservoir temperatures, and technoeconomic simulation of a combined heat and power application in the Oakridge area.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Retrospective Analysis of Geothermal Mineral Recovery and Domestic Resource Assessment - References

This reference database in RIS format contains all of the references that were collected as part of our retrospective analysis of geothermal mineral recovery (REE and Li) activities and domestic resource assessment. The outputs detail the chemistry and molecular processes used in lithium recovery from geothermal brines. The articles included include information about the study including more information on geothermal brines and the technologies used for recovering lithium from geothermal brines.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Wind Resource Assessment of Gujarat (India)

India is one of the largest wind energy markets in the world. In 1986 Gujarat was the first Indian state to install a wind power project. In February 2013, the installed wind capacity in Gujarat was 3,093 MW. Due to the uncertainty around existing wind energy assessments in India, this analysis uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to simulate the wind at current hub heights for one year to provide more precise estimates of wind resources in Gujarat. The WRF model allows for accurate simulations of winds near the surface and at heights important for wind energy purposes. While previous resource assessments published wind power density, we focus on average wind speeds, which can be converted to wind power densities by the user with methods of their choice. The wind resource estimates in this study show regions with average annual wind speeds of more than 8 m/s.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of obstacle modelling approaches for resource assessment and small wind turbine siting: case study in the northern Netherlands

Abstract. Growth in adoption of distributed wind turbines for energy generation is significantly impacted by challenges associated with siting and accurate estimation of the wind resource. Small turbines, at hub heights of 40 m or less, are greatly impacted by terrestrial obstacles such as built structures and vegetation that can cause complex wake effects. While some progress in high-fidelity complex fluid dynamics (CFD) models has increased the potential accuracy for modelling the impacts of obstacles on turbulent wind flow, these models are too computationally expensive for practical siting and resource assessment applications. To understand the efficacy of available models in situ, this study evaluates classic and commonly used methods alongside new state-of-the-art lower-order models derived from CFD simulations and machine learning approaches. This evaluation is conducted using a subset of an extensive original dataset of measurements from more than 300 operational wind turbines in the northern Netherlands. The results show that data-driven methods (e.g. machine learning and statistical modelling) are most effective at predicting production at real sites with an average error in annual energy production of 2.5 %. When sufficient data may not be available de novo to support these data-driven approaches, models derived from high-fidelity simulations show promise and reliably outperform classic methods. On average these models have 6.3 %–11.5 % error compared with 26 % for classic methods and 27 % baseline error for reanalysis data without obstacle correction. While more performant on average, these methods are also sensitive to the quality of obstacle descriptions and reanalysis inputs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Life Cycle Water Consumption and Water Resource Assessment for Utility-Scale Geothermal Systems: An In-Depth Analysis of Historical and Forthcoming EGS Projects

This report is the third in a series of reports sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Program in which a range of water-related issues surrounding geothermal power production are evaluated. The first report made an initial attempt at quantifying the life cycle fresh water requirements of geothermal power-generating systems and explored operational and environmental concerns related to the geochemical composition of geothermal fluids. The initial analysis of life cycle fresh water consumption of geothermal power-generating systems identified that operational water requirements consumed the vast majority of water across the life cycle. However, it relied upon limited operational water consumption data and did not account for belowground operational losses for enhanced geothermal systems (EGSs). A second report presented an initial assessment of fresh water demand for future growth in utility-scale geothermal power generation. The current analysis builds upon this work to improve life cycle fresh water consumption estimates and incorporates regional water availability into the resource assessment to improve the identification of areas where future growth in geothermal electricity generation may encounter water challenges. This report is divided into nine chapters. Chapter 1 gives the background of the project and its purpose, which is to assess the water consumption of geothermal technologies and identify areas where water availability may present a challenge to utility-scale geothermal development. Water consumption refers to the water that is withdrawn from a resource such as a river, lake, or nongeothermal aquifer that is not returned to that resource. The geothermal electricity generation technologies evaluated in this study include conventional hydrothermal flash and binary systems, as well as EGSs that rely on engineering a productive reservoir where heat exists, but where water availability or permeability may be limited. Chapter 2 describes the approach and methods for this work and identifies the four power plant scenarios evaluated: a 20-MW EGS binary plant, a 50-MW EGS binary plant, a 10-MW hydrothermal binary plant, and a 50-MW hydrothermal flash plant. The methods focus on (1) the collection of data to improve estimation of EGS stimulation volumes, aboveground operational consumption for all geothermal technologies, and belowground operational consumption for EGS; and (2) the mapping of the geothermal and water resources of the western United States to assist in the identification of potential water challenges to geothermal growth. Chapters 3 and 4 present the water requirements for the power plant life cycle. Chapter 3 presents the results of the current data collection effort, and Chapter 4 presents the normalized volume of fresh water consumed at each life cycle stage per lifetime energy output for the power plant scenarios evaluated. Over the life cycle of a geothermal power plant, from construction through 30 years of operation, the majority of water is consumed by plant operations. For the EGS binary scenarios, where dry cooling was assumed, belowground operational water loss is the greatest contributor depending upon the physical and operational conditions of the reservoir. Total life cycle water consumption requirements for air-cooled EGS binary scenarios vary between 0.22 and 1.85 gal/kWh, depending upon the extent of belowground operational water consumption. The air-cooled hydrothermal binary and flash plants experience far less fresh water consumption over the life cycle, at 0.04 gal/kWh. Fresh water requirements associated with air- cooled binary operations are primarily from aboveground water needs, including dust control, maintenance, and domestic use. Although wet-cooled hydrothermal flash systems require water for cooling, these plants generally rely upon the geofluid, fluid from the geothermal reservoir, which typically has high salinity and total dissolved solids concentration and is much warmer than normal groundwater sources, for their cooling water needs; thus, while there is considerable geofluid loss at 2.7 gal/kWh, fresh water consumption during operations is similar to that of aircooled binary systems. Chapter 5 presents the assessment of water demand for future growth in deployment of utility-scale geothermal power generation. The approach combines the life cycle analysis of geothermal water consumption with a geothermal supply curve according to resource type, levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), and potential growth scenarios. A total of 17 growth scenarios were evaluated. In general, the scenarios that assumed lower costs for EGSs as a result of learning and technological improvements resulted in greater geothermal potential, but also significantly greater water demand due to the higher water consumption by EGSs. It was shown, however, that this effect could be largely mitigated if nonpotable water sources were used for belowground operational water demands. The geographical areas that showed the highest water demand for most growth scenarios were southern and northern California, as well as most of Nevada. In addition to water demand by geothermal power production, Chapter 5 includes data on water availability for geothermal development areas. A qualitative analysis is included that identifies some of the basins where the limited availability of water is most likely to affect the development of geothermal resources. The data indicate that water availability is fairly limited, especially under drought conditions, in most of the areas with significant near- and medium-term geothermal potential. Southern California was found to have the greatest potential for water-related challenges with its combination of high geothermal potential and limited water availability. The results of this work are summarized in Chapter 6. Overall, this work highlights the importance of utilizing dry cooling systems for binary and EGS systems and minimizing fresh water consumption throughout the life cycle of geothermal power development. The large resource base for EGSs represents a major opportunity for the geothermal industry; however, depending upon geology, these systems can require large quantities of makeup water due to belowground reservoir losses. Identifying potential sources of compatible degraded or low-quality water for use for makeup injection for EGS and flash systems represents an important opportunity to reduce the impacts of geothermal development on fresh water resources. The importance of identifying alternative water sources for geothermal systems is heightened by the fact that a large fraction of the geothermal resource is located in areas already experiencing water stress. Chapter 7 is a glossary of the technical terms used in the report, and Chapters 8 and 9 provide references and a bibliography, respectively.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗