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NASA NTRS1989

A search for solar related changes in tropospheric weather

The possibility that solar variations associated with the 11-year solar cycle may be the cause of the changes in tropospheric weather and climate has been the subject to scientific investigation for several decades. Meteorologists are greatly concerned with the changes in tropospheric phenomena. An attempt was made to find solar activity related changes in tropospheric weather, by the modulation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of zonal wind at 50 mb. Rainfall and surface temperature data for a period of about three solar cycles, 1953 to 1988, from various stations in the Indian subcontinent were utilized. By extension, a possible teleconnection was looked for between the temperature changes in middle atmospheric levels and surface temperature when the data are stratified according to east or west phase of the QBO. The temperature data were averaged for January and February to represent the winter temperature and for July and August to represent the summer temperature.

Mohanakumar, K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

An overview af SAGE I and II ozone measurements

The stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiments (SAGE) I and II measure Mie, Rayleigh, and gaseous extinction profiles using the solar occultation technique. These global measurements yield ozone profiles with a vertical resolution of 1 km which have been routinely obtained for the periods from February 1979 to November 1981 (SAGE I) and October 1984 to the present (SAGE II). The long-term periodic behavior of the measured ozone is presented as well as case studies of the observed short-term spatial and temporal variability. A linear regression shows annual, semiannual, and quasi-biennial oscillation features at various altitudes and latitudes which, in general, agree with past work. Also, ozone, aerosol, and water vapor data are described for the Antarctic springtime, showing large variation relative to the vortex. Cross-sections in latitude and altitude and polar plots at various altitudes clearly delineate the ozone hole vertically and areally.

Mccormick, M. P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The interannual variability of polar stratospheric clouds and related parameters in Antarctica during September and October

Antarctic polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) sightings by the orbiting SAM II sensor during September and October show a pronounced quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal, and October sightings have increased markedly over the past 10 years in years of westerly QBO phase. The QBO in PSC frequency is likely to affect the rate of Antarctic heterogeneous chemical processes and, hence, ozone depletion. Studies of the observed long-term temperature trend suggest that the decadal PSC trend probably results from the ozone decline, through its effect on stratospheric heating rates. A more detailed analysis of data from 1986 to 1987 shows that there were more PSCs in 1987, and that they persisted much later into the spring season as compared to 1986. Qualitatively similar behavior was found for the OClO column abundances and 18-km ozone depletion observed at McMurdo Station during these 2 years. These observations suggest that both the intensity and duration of heterogeneous chemical processes are likely greater during colder OBQ-westerly phase years.

Poole, Lamont R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Studies of the observed and theoretical variations of atmospheric ozone

The four related topics covered include: (1) distributions of total and upper atmospheric ozone and their time and space variations; (2) observed and theoretical models of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) ozone variation; (3) radiative processes in the upper atmosphere; and (4) relations between ozone and solar variations. The results of these studies are presented. They come from twenty-three published papers.

London, Julius↗
NASA NTRS1991

Quasi-biennial modulation of planetary-wave fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter

Using 25 years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) data for 1964-88 the relation between tropical and extratropical quasi-biennial oscillations (QBOs) was examined for zonally averaged quantities and planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. The extratropical QBO discussed by Holton and Tan (1980) existed in both temporal halves of the dataset. Autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that it was an important mode of interannual variability in the extratropical winter stratosphere. Correlation with the tropics was strongest when 40-mb equatorial winds were used to define the tropical QBO. Easterly phase at 40 mb implied a weaker than normal polar night jet and warmer than normal polar temperature and vice versa. An opposite relationship was obtained using 10-mb equatorial winds. The association between tropical and extratropical QBOs was observed in about 90 percent of the winters and was statistically significant. It is shown that planetary-wave Eliassen-Palm fluxes were generally consistent with the extratropical QBO. These fluxes were more (less) convergent in the midlatitude (subtropical) upper stratosphere in the 40-mb east (= easterly) phase category relative to the west category.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Total ozone trends deduced from Nimbus 7 TOMS data

The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) on the Nimbus 7 satellite has been measuring the total column amount of ozone over the globe for more than 11 years. Recent improvements in the data analysis have led to a technique for determining and removing drift in the calibration such that the data at the end of the record are precise to + or - 1.3 percent (2-sigma) relative to the data at the beginning of the record. A statistical model, including terms for seasonal variation, linear trend, quasi-biennial oscillation, solar cycle and second-order autoregressive noise has been fit to the TOMS time series of total ozone data. The linear trend obtained when this statistical model is fit to the TOMS data averaged between 65 N and 65 S latitudes is -0.26 + or - 0.14 percent/year or -3 percent over the 11.6 year time period from November 1978 to May 1990. The trend is near zero (0.0002 + or - 0.2 percent/year) at the equator and increases toward both poles.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Global average ozone change from November 1978 to May 1990

A recent recalibration and reprocessing of the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data have made possible a new determination of the global average total ozone decrease of 3.5 percent over the 11-year period, January 1, 1979, to December 31, 1989, with a 2 sigma error of 1.4 percent. The revised TOMS ozone trend data are in agreement, within error limits, with the average of 39 ground-based Dobson stations and with the world standard Dobson spectrometer 83 at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. Superimposed on the 11-year ozone trend is a possible solar cycle effect, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), annual, and semiannual cycles. Using solar 10-7-cm flux data and 30-mbar Singapore wind data (QBO), a time series has been constructed that reproduces the long-term behavior of the globally averaged ozone. Removal of the apparent solar cycle effect from the global average reduces the net ozone loss to 2.66 + or - 1.4 percent per decade. The precise value of the global average ozone trend depends on the latitude range selected, with ranges greater than + or - 69 emphasizing the larger variations at high latitudes.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The mean zonal flow response to Rossby wave and gravity wave forcing in the equatorial lower stratosphere - Relationship to the QBO

Observations show that the westerly acceleration of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) can be accounted for by Kelvin waves, but that there is a deficiency in the easterly acceleration due to Rossby-gravity waves. Rossby waves and westward propagating gravity waves have been suggested as alternative sources for the easterly acceleration. The possible role of these two wave modes has been tested in a two-dimensional model of the QBO. When the easterly acceleration is due to Rossby waves, the zonal-mean response is steady; when it is due to gravity waves, an oscillation with some features similar to the QBO occurs, but it is of short period and weak amplitude. A similar result occurs when a standing-wave forcing pattern is imposed. These results suggest that Rossby waves play only a minor role in the QBO, and that while the Rossby-gravity mode is essential, other gravity modes may also be important for the easterly phase.

Takahashi, Masaaki↗
NASA NTRS1991

Anomalous temperature and zonal wind in the tropical upper stratosphere, 1982/1983

Observed temperature and zonal wind anomalies during 1982-1983 are described in relation to the 20-yr rocketsonde data record. Temperature data from the Nimbus 7 SAMS indicate that in mid-1982, cooling occurred in the upper and middle tropical stratosphere, starting shortly after the eruption of El Chichon (April 1982). Rocketsonde data from Kwajalein gave additional evidence of cooling and revealed that zonal winds in the upper and middle stratosphere were anomalous in 1982 and also in 1983. Rocketsonde observations were consistent with balance winds derived from SAMS. Upper-level cooling was linked to anomalous easterlies near the equator and therefore could not be interpreted as a radiative (nondynamical) response to El Chichon. The structure of an expected 2D dynamical response to aerosol heating is examined with a numerical model and compared to the data. It is suggested that internal sources of atmospheric variability (eg., extratropical forcing and quasi-biennial oscillation) contributed to the equatorial cooling observed in 1982.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modes of interannual variability in the stratosphere

During 1964-91, stratospheric temperature and circulation in Northern Hemisphere winter varied interannually on time scales from 2 to about 12 years. A substantial percentage of December-February interannual variance was correlated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Additional monthly variance could be accounted for by quasi-decadal oscillation and QBO/low-frequency modulation. The QBO was the largest and most consistent of these signals, and its decadal modulation explains an apparent correlation with the solar cycle depending on the sign of the QBO - an interpretation supported by principal component analysis.

Dunkerton, Timothy J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Equatorial waves in a stratospheric GCM - Effects of vertical resolution

It is noted that equatorially trapped wave modes, e.g., Kelvin and Rossby-gravity waves, are thought to play a critical role in forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation of the lower tropical stratosphere. The ability of a GCM to simulate these waves is examined and the changes in the wave properties as a function of the vertical resolution of the model are investigated. The dependence of the equatorial wave simulation of vertical resolution is examined utilizing three experiments with vertical grid spacings of about 2.8, 1.4, and 0.7 km. At high vertical resolution, the simulated waves are shown to agree with the available observations.

Boville, Byron A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Kelvin waves in total column ozone

Tropical Kelvin waves have been observed previously in ozone mixing ratio data from the SBUV (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet) and LIMS (Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere) instruments on board the Nimbus-7 satellite. Kelvin wave features in total column ozone, using version 6 data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument (also on board Nimbus-7) are investigated. Results show eastward-propagating zonal waves 1-2 with periods approximately 5-15 days, amplitudes approximately 3-5 DU, and latitudinal symmetry typical of Kelvin waves. A simplified model calculation suggests that the primary source for the perturbations is slow Kelvin waves in the lower-to-middle stratosphere. Maximum Kelvin wave signatures occur in conjunction with westward lower-to-middle stratospheric equatorial zonal winds (a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) wind modulation effect).

Ziemke, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Components of interannual ozone change based on Nimbus 7 TOMS data

A multiple regression statistical model is applied to estimate the latitude and seasonal dependences of the solar cycle, quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and anthropogenic trend components of stratospheric total ozone change using 13.2 years of Nimbus 7 TOMS data. The characteristics of the linear trend component are in agreement with earlier studies. The QBO regression coefficient is significantly different from zero at high southern latitudes in the Austral spring supporting earlier evidence that the Antarctic ozone depletion is modulated by the QBO. The existence of a solar cycle component is indicated by empirical studies of model residuals and by the approximate agreement of the derived global mean solar coefficient amplitude with photochemical calculations. Initial estimates for the latitude dependence of the solar coefficient suggest higher amplitudes with increasing latitude, especially in the Southern Hemisphere in spring. The statistical model predicts a return to more rapid ozone depletions during the next 4 years as solar minimum is approached.

Hood, Lon L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Mean winds and momentum fluxes over Jicamarca, Peru, during June and August 1987

Data from the mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere radar at Jicamarca, Peru, together with other available data, are used to diagnose the mean structure of winds and gravity-wave momentum fluxes from the surface to 90 km during two-ten-day campaigns in June and August of 1987. In the stratosphere a layer of maximum eastward flow associated with the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) was seen to strengthen and descend rapidly from June to August, overlying persistent westward flow. A layer of enhanced signal return, suggestive of a turbulent layer, was observed just above the descending QBO eastward maximum. Notable zonal asymmetries were present during this transition and the local meridional circulation departed from zonal-mean QBO theory. A substantial northeastward momentum flux was found below 25 km, which may be related to topographic gravity waves excited by southeastward flow across the Andes. In the lower mesosphere a relatively weak 'second' mesopause semiannual oscillation is confirmed. In both the lower stratosphere and mesosphere, body forces were comparable in magnitude to inferred Coriolis torques.

Hitchman, Matthew H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature due to the eruptions of Mt. Pinatubo

The paper investigates the impact of the Mt. Pinatubo eruptions on the total column ozone measured from the Nimbus 8 TOMS and the NOAA-11 SBUV/2 spectrometers. Within a few months after the eruptions, the total column ozone decreased by 5-6 percent in the tropics, 3-4 percent at midlatitudes, and 6-9 percent at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. After the effects of quasi-biennial oscillations and interannual variability are taken into account, the decrease in the column ozone attributed to volcanic eruptions at these latitudes may not be more than 2-4 percent. The most noticeable effect on the Pinatubo eruptions, as observed during the El Chichon period, is the breakdown of the phase relation between ozone and temperature. This is attributed to additional heating in the lower stratosphere caused by volcanic aerosols.

Chandra, S.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Studies of dynamical processes affecting the distribution of stratospheric ozone

The purpose of the research was to understand large-scale tracer transport processes in the stratosphere. Two approaches were taken. The first is analysis of tracer observations, especially satellite observations of ozone concentration and total column ozone. The second is numerical simulation of tracer transport processes. Topics researched include: quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and stratospheric ozone; mixing in the polar vortices; polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) properties from Antarctic lidar data; and statistical methods for numerical experiments.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Equatorial zonal wind in the middle atmosphere derived from geopotential height and temperature data

This paper examines the feasibility of deriving the zonal wind at the equator using mean temperature and geopotential height data from satellite and radiosonde/rocketsonde measurements. Using climatological data of the stratosphere and mesosphere based on monthly mean Nimbus 5 Selective Chopper Radiometer and Nimbus 6 Pressure Modulator Radiometer measurements, and stratospheric monthly mean data from the National Meteorological Center for 1979-1986, meridional cross sections and time profiles of the zonal wind in the tropical middle atmosphere are presented. The derived zonal wind at the equator reproduces the mean climatology of the tropical middle atmosphere as well as the general characteristics of the equatorial quasi-biennial (QBO) and semiannual oscillations (SAO) observed in monthly mean radiosonde and rocketsonde data. Although the amplitude of the derived wind QBO is for the most part underestimated relative to direct-wind measurements, the amplitude of the derived wind SAO compares fairly well with rocketsonde observations.

Fleming, Eric L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Stratospheric ozone profile and total ozone trends derived from the SAGE I and SAGE II data

Global trends in both stratospheric column ozone and as a function of altitude are derived on the basis of SAGE I/II ozone data from the period 1979-1991. A statistical model containing quasi-biennial, seasonal, and semiannual oscillations, a linear component, and a first-order autoregressive noise process was fit to the time series of SAGE I/II monthly zonal mean data. The linear trend in column ozone above 17-km altitude, averaged between 65 deg S and 65 deg N, is -0.30 +/-0.19 percent/yr, or -3.6 percent over the time period February 1979 through April 1991. The data show that the column trend above 17 km is nearly zero in the tropics and increases towards the high latitudes with values of -0.6 percent/yr at 60 deg S and -0.35 percent/yr at 60 deg N. Both these results are in agreement with the recent TOMS results. The profile trend analyses show that the column ozone losses are occurring below 25 km, with most of the loss coming from the region between 17 and 20 km. Negative trend values on the order of -2 percent/yr are found at 17 km in midlatitudes.

Mccormick, M. P.↗