Signal recognition as influenced by presentation schedules.
Influence on hits and false alarms of response and signal events on preceding trial
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SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “Probability and statistics”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Sufficient Statistics for Divergence and the Probability of Misclassification
One particular aspect is considered of the feature selection problem which results from the transformation x=Bz, where B is a k by n matrix of rank k and k is or = to n. It is shown that in general, such a transformation results in a loss of information. In terms of the divergence, this is equivalent to the fact that the average divergence computed using the variable x is less than or equal to the average divergence computed using the variable z. A loss of information in terms of the probability of misclassification is shown to be equivalent to the fact that the probability of misclassification computed using variable x is greater than or equal to the probability of misclassification computed using variable z. First, the necessary facts relating k-dimensional and n-dimensional integrals are derived. Then the mentioned results about the divergence and probability of misclassification are derived. Finally it is shown that if no information is lost (in x = Bz) as measured by the divergence, then no information is lost as measured by the probability of misclassification.
Quirein, J.↗
Latitudinal beaming of Jupiter's low frequency radio emissions
By comparing RAE-1 and IMP-6 satellite measurements of Jupiter's radio emission near 1MHz with recent Voyager-1 and 2 observations in the same frequency range, the properties of the low frequency radiation pattern over a 10 deg range of latitudes with respect to the Jovian rotation equator can be studied. These observations, which cover a wider latitudinal range than is possible from the earth, are consistent with many aspects of earlier ground-based measurements used to infer a sharp beaming pattern for the decameter wavelength emissions. Marked, systematic changes are found in the statistical occurrence probability distributions with system 3 central meridian longitude as the jovigraphic latitude of the observer changes over this range. Simultaneous observations by the two Voyager spacecraft suggest that the instantaneous beam width may be no more than a few degrees at times. The new hectometer-wave results can be interpreted in terms of a narrow, curved sheet at a fixed magnetic latitude into which the emission is beamed to escape the planet.
Alexander, J. K.↗
Manipulation of Numbers With Many Digits
PRECISION designed for manipulation of numbers with accurate retention of up to thousands of digits per number. Use of PRECISION prevents underflow and overflow in programs that generate extreme numbers such as probability theory, statistics, and scientific applications.
Howell, L. W.↗
A study of environmental characterization of conventional and advanced aluminum alloys for selection and design. Phase 2: The breaking load test method
A technique is demonstrated for accelerated stress corrosion testing of high strength aluminum alloys. The method offers better precision and shorter exposure times than traditional pass fail procedures. The approach uses data from tension tests performed on replicate groups of smooth specimens after various lengths of exposure to static stress. The breaking strength measures degradation in the test specimen load carrying ability due to the environmental attack. Analysis of breaking load data by extreme value statistics enables the calculation of survival probabilities and a statistically defined threshold stress applicable to the specific test conditions. A fracture mechanics model is given which quantifies depth of attack in the stress corroded specimen by an effective flaw size calculated from the breaking stress and the material strength and fracture toughness properties. Comparisons are made with experimental results from three tempers of 7075 alloy plate tested by the breaking load method and by traditional tests of statistically loaded smooth tension bars and conventional precracked specimens.
Sprowls, D. O.↗
Space Mathematics: A Resource for Secondary School Teachers
A collection of mathematical problems related to NASA space science projects is presented. In developing the examples and problems, attention was given to preserving the authenticity and significance of the original setting while keeping the level of mathematics within the secondary school curriculum. Computation and measurement, algebra, geometry, probability and statistics, exponential and logarithmic functions, trigonometry, matrix algebra, conic sections, and calculus are among the areas addressed.
Kastner, Bernice↗
Application of probabilistic analysis/design methods in space programs - The approaches, the status, and the needs
The prospective improvement of probabilistic methods for space program analysis/design entails the further development of theories, codes, and tools which match specific areas of application, the drawing of lessons from previous uses of probability and statistics data bases, the enlargement of data bases (especially in the field of structural failures), and the education of engineers and managers on the advantages of these methods. An evaluation is presently made of the current limitations of probabilistic engineering methods. Recommendations are made for specific applications.
Ryan, Robert S.↗
Further ROSAT measurements of the period of 4U 1820-30
We have made two new observations of 4U 1820-30 with the ROSAT position sensitive proportional counter (PSPC). The measurements do not provide further evidence for a secular period decrease of this source. Instead, after inclusion of our new arrival time measurements the significance of the orbital period derivative drops (from 5.5 to 4.6 sigma), its best-fit value decreases (to P-dot/P =(-5.3 +/- 1.1) x 10(exp -8)/yr) and the formal probability that statistical fluctuations have caused the observed P-dot increases to 0.5% (from 0.003%). We detect light curve changes that are large enough to be the cause of some (or all) of the period changes seen in 4U 1820-30, but not large enough to explain the discrepancy of the observed period derivative with that theoretically predicted. We explore the possibility that the secular period change observed during 1976-1991 could have been dominated by random or systematic changes in the position and shape of an occulting bulge on the disk rim and conclude that phase shifts caused by this mechanism could in principle explain the discrepancy entirely.
Klis, M. Van Der↗
Statistical Aspects of Intense Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the Past 49 Hurricane Seasons (1950-1998)
Statistical aspects of intense hurricanes (those of category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic basin for the interval of 1950-1998 are investigated with respect to the ENSC, cycle and the postulated 'more versus less' activity modes for intense hurricane activity. This is accomplished in order to evaluate the statistical basis for these specific groupings and to presage a forecast for the number of expected intense hurricanes during the forthcoming 1999 hurricane season. Statistically speaking, because the 1998-1999 La Nina (onset presumed to be September 1998) should persist longer than about a year - the average duration for La Nina events based on the 10 previously occurring La Nina, each having a duration in the range of 7-22 months - it seems likely that the 1999 season will be classified as a 'non-El Nino-related' (NENR) season. If true, then, greater than or equal to 2 intense hurricanes are to be expected. Based on Poisson statistics, the probability of greater than or equal to 2 events is about 77% when the season is classified as NENR, and it is about 87% when the season is classified as NENR and the 'more active' phase is in fashion; likewise, the probability of greater than or equal to 4 events is about 31% and 48%, respectively, for the two cases. Therefore, an above average rate (possibly, as many as 4 +/- 1, or higher) of intense hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin seems a very distinct possibility during the 1999 season.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Disintegration of Dust Aggregates in Interstellar Shocks and the Lifetime of Dust Grains in the ISM
Interstellar grains are destroyed by shock waves moving through the ISM. In fact, the destruction of grains may be so effective that it is difficult to explain the observed abundance of dust in the ISM as a steady state between input of grains from stellar sources and destruction of grains in shocks. This is especially a problem for the larger grains. Therefore, the dust grains must be protected in some way. Jones et al. have already considered coatings and the increased post-shock drag effects for low density grains. In molecular clouds and dense clouds, coagulation of grains is an important process, and the largest interstellar grains may indeed be aggregates of smaller grains rather than homogeneous particles. This may provide a means to protect the larger grains, in that, in moderate velocity grain-grain collisions in a shock the aggregates may disintegrate rather than be vaporized. The released small particles are more resilient to shock destruction (except in fast shocks) and may reform larger grains later, recovering the observed size distribution. We have developed a model for the binding forces in grain aggregates and apply this model to the collisions between an aggregate and fast small grains. We discuss the results in the light of statistical collision probabilities and grain life times.
Dominik, C.↗
Software Reliability 2002
In FY01 we learned that hardware reliability models need substantial changes to account for differences in software, thus making software reliability measurements more effective, accurate, and easier to apply. These reliability models are generally based on familiar distributions or parametric methods. An obvious question is 'What new statistical and probability models can be developed using non-parametric and distribution-free methods instead of the traditional parametric method?" Two approaches to software reliability engineering appear somewhat promising. The first study, begin in FY01, is based in hardware reliability, a very well established science that has many aspects that can be applied to software. This research effort has investigated mathematical aspects of hardware reliability and has identified those applicable to software. Currently the research effort is applying and testing these approaches to software reliability measurement, These parametric models require much project data that may be difficult to apply and interpret. Projects at GSFC are often complex in both technology and schedules. Assessing and estimating reliability of the final system is extremely difficult when various subsystems are tested and completed long before others. Parametric and distribution free techniques may offer a new and accurate way of modeling failure time and other project data to provide earlier and more accurate estimates of system reliability.
Wallace, Dolores R.↗
Summertime Coincident Observations of Ice Water Path in the Visible/Near-IR, Radar, and Microwave Frequencies
Accurate representation of the physical and radiative properties of clouds in climate models continues to be a challenge. At present, both remote sensing observations and modeling of microphysical properties of clouds rely heavily on parameterizations or assumptions on particle size distribution (PSD) and cloud phase. In this study, we compare Ice Water Path (IWP), an important physical and radiative property that provides the amount of ice present in a cloud column, using measurements obtained via three different retrieval strategies. The datasets we use in this study include Visible/Near-IR IWP from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument flying aboard the Aqua satellite, Radar-only IWP from the CloudSat instrument operating at 94 GHz, and NOAA/NESDIS operational IWP from the 89 and 157 GHz channels of the Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) instrument flying aboard the NOAA-18 satellite. In the Visible/Near-IR, IWP is derived from observations of optical thickness and effective radius. CloudSat IWP is determined from measurements of cloud backscatter and assumed PSD. MHS IWP retrievals depend on scattering measurements at two different, non-water absorbing channels, 89 and 157 GHz. In order to compare IWP obtained from these different techniques and collected at different vertical and horizontal resolutions, we examine summertime cases in the tropics (30S - 30N) when all 3 satellites are within 4 minutes of each other (approximately 1500 km). All measurements are then gridded to a common 15 km x 15 km box determined by MHS. In a grid box comparison, we find CloudSat to report the highest IWP followed by MODIS, followed by MHS. In a statistical comparison, probability density distributions show MHS with the highest frequencies at IWP of 100-1000 g/m(exp 2) and CloudSat with the longest tail reporting IWP of several thousands g/m(exp 2). For IWP greater than 30 g/m(exp 2), MODIS is consistently higher than CloudSat, and it is higher at the lower IWPs but lower at the higher IWPs that overlap with MHS. Some of these differences can be attributed to the limitations of the measuring techniques themselves, but some can result from the assumptions made in the algorithms that generate the IWP product. We investigate this issue by creating categories based on various conditions such as cloud type, precipitation presence, underlying liquid water content, and surface type (land vs. ocean) and by comparing the performance of the IWP products under each condition.
Pittman, Jasna V.↗
An Aircraft Separation Algorithm with Feedback and Perturbation
A separation algorithm is a set of rules that tell aircraft how to maneuver in order to maintain a minimum distance between them. This paper investigates demonstrating that separation algorithms satisfy the FAA requirement for the occurrence of incidents by means of simulation. Any demonstration that a separation algorithm, or any other aspect of flight, satisfies the FAA requirement is a challenge because of the stringent nature of the requirement and the complexity of airspace operations. The paper begins with a probability and statistical analysis of both the FAA requirement and demonstrating meeting it by a Monte Carlo approach. It considers the geometry of maintaining separation when one plane must change its flight path. It then develops a simple feedback control law that guides the planes on their paths. The presence of feedback control permits the introduction of perturbations, and the stochastic nature of the chosen perturbation is examined. The simulation program is described. This paper is an early effort in the realistic demonstration of a stringent requirement. Much remains to be done.
White, Allan L.↗
Enabling More than Moore: Accelerated Reliability Testing and Risk Analysis for Advanced Electronics Packaging
For five decades, the semiconductor industry has distinguished itself by the rapid pace of improvement in miniaturization of electronics products-Moore's Law. Now, scaling hits a brick wall, a paradigm shift. The industry roadmaps recognized the scaling limitation and project that packaging technologies will meet further miniaturization needs or ak.a "More than Moore". This paper presents packaging technology trends and accelerated reliability testing methods currently being practiced. Then, it presents industry status on key advanced electronic packages, factors affecting accelerated solder joint reliability of area array packages, and IPC/JEDEC/Mil specifications for characterizations of assemblies under accelerated thermal and mechanical loading. Finally, it presents an examples demonstrating how Accelerated Testing and Analysis have been effectively employed in the development of complex spacecraft thereby reducing risk. Quantitative assessments necessarily involve the mathematics of probability and statistics. In addition, accelerated tests need to be designed which consider the desired risk posture and schedule for particular project. Such assessments relieve risks without imposing additional costs. and constraints that are not value added for a particular mission. Furthermore, in the course of development of complex systems, variances and defects will inevitably present themselves and require a decision concerning their disposition, necessitating quantitative assessments. In summary, this paper presents a comprehensive view point, from technology to systems, including the benefits and impact of accelerated testing in offsetting risk.
Ghaffarian, Reza↗
A Roundtrip Journey off the Career Track: Having a Successful Career Despite Your Best Efforts
Although career tracks in science and engineering are often depicted as straight and smooth, many contain detours, side journeys and interruptions. In the end, these detours not only influence who we are, they can make us better scientists and engineers. In this presentation, Dr. Ladbury tells the tale of how his detours took him to far-flung locations from the Himalayan mountains to the African Savannah and eventually back to a rewarding career in radiation physics.
Space Radiation↗
Market Survey 2020: Commercial Clinical Decision Support Systems and Wellness Tools
For long-duration, deep space exploration missions, current methods for managing and supporting crew health and medical conditions will be unsuitable. Communication and data transmission lags will necessitate the use of a sophisticated clinical decision support system (CDSS) that will tailor diagnosis and treatment guidance that is context-sensitive for anticipated astronaut health, wellness, and medical conditions. A variety of clinical decision support (CDS) and wellness tools (WT) are currently available in the commercial market and a broad-brush survey of this market can provide an initial impression of the current state of the art which, in turn, can inform the roadmap of NASA deep space CDSS development and associated requirements. Such a survey was undertaken during the first six months of 2020 using directed convenience sampling to obtain information provided by vendors on their websites; both commercially available CDS and WT (such as those used to track and monitor nutrition, exercise, and sleep) were included. Areas assessed were item type (e.g., software/application, device); primary purpose of the item (e.g., diagnostic support, nutrition tracking); additional purposes (if any); reported features, capabilities, and functionality; setting of use (e.g., inpatient, outpatient); intended user (e.g., clinician, patient); location and sources of data/information used or produced by the item; integration with patient electronic health record (EHR); compliance with interoperability ontologies and standards (e.g., Health Level 7 [HL7], Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine – Clinical Terminology [SNOMED-CT]); and whether the item is knowledge-based (derived from research findings) or non-knowledge-based (derived through artificial intelligence, machine learning, advanced probability and statistics), among others. Ninety-seven (97) vendor websites describing 196 CDS and 73 WT (269 total) were reviewed and coded. The primary purpose of the majority of CDS reviewed is diagnosis or diagnosis/treatment/drug decision support—targeted for clinician use— and the primary purpose of the majority of WT reviewed is the monitoring of different health metrics, most often through the use of a biosensor device (e.g., blood pressure)—targeted for patient use. Very few CDS or WT appear to comply with major international interoperability standards or can be integrated with a patient’s EHR data. None consider contextual factors, such as conditions of the physical environment (e.g., CO2 levels). The majority of CDS and WT reviewed are non-knowledge, cloud- or web-based applications or software. Forty-three (43) major findings were identified and the implications those findings have for NASA will be discussed. Example major findings include: CDS-WT capabilities range from diagnosis to treatment applications, CDS-WT may be wearable or non-wearable and are technologically advanced and only a few CDS-WT tools referenced compliance to ensure interoperability, among other findings. Recommendations will also be offered that will help to address ExMC Gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.
market survey↗
Design and Modeling of a Coded-Interleaving System in the Presence of Fading
Future deep space links are migrating towards higher frequency bands such as Ka band and optical. These links are susceptible to non linear effects (e.g. cloud coverage, atmospheric turbulence, scintillation, antenna mis-pointing, jitter, relative motion, etc.) that cause various degrees of fading loss over various time scales. We consider a channel experiencing block fading where the channel coherence time is a lot longer than the length of a codeword. As long as the fading duration is not excessive, an interleaver can be used in a coded-communication system that randomizes the fades among symbols of multiple codewords. This achieves an “averaging” effect that spreads the signal energy more evenly among the codewords, and improves the likelihood that each of them can be decoded correctly. For simplicity, we consider a block interleaver where adjacent symbols of a codeword have a fixed delay (or separation) with each other, and investigate the error-rate performance of a coded-interleaving system (with fixed and finite interleaving depth) in the presence of block fading. Unlike prior research which assumes theoretical channel coherence models, we aim to build upon our analysis using empirical spacecraft signal measurements obtained with the Deep Space Network, and to use the fundamental theories of probability and statistics (e.g. variations of Law of Large Numbers) to quantify the error-rate performance of the coded-interleaving system. We propose to utilize these results in the design of a two-dimensional coded-interleaving system for fading channels.
Sanchez-Net, Marc↗
Hyperspectral Mapping of the Invasive Species Pepperweed and the Development of a Habitat Suitability Model
Mapping and predicting the spatial distribution of invasive plant species is central to habitat management, however difficult to implement at landscape and regional scales. Remote sensing techniques can reduce the impact field campaigns have on these ecologically sensitive areas and can provide a regional and multi-temporal view of invasive species spread. Invasive perennial pepperweed (Lepidium latifolium) is now widespread in fragmented estuaries of the South San Francisco Bay, and is shown to degrade native vegetation in estuaries and adjacent habitats, thereby reducing forage and shelter for wildlife. The purpose of this study is to map the present distribution of pepperweed in estuarine areas of the South San Francisco Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (Alviso, CA), and create a habitat suitability model to predict future spread. Pepperweed reflectance data were collected in-situ with a GER 1500 spectroradiometer along with 88 corresponding pepperweed presence and absence points used for building the statistical models. The spectral angle mapper (SAM) classification algorithm was used to distinguish the reflectance spectrum of pepperweed and map its distribution using an image from EO-1 Hyperion. To map pepperweed, we performed a supervised classification on an ASTER image with a resulting classification accuracy of 71.8%. We generated a weighted overlay analysis model within a geographic information system (GIS) framework to predict areas in the study site most susceptible to pepperweed colonization. Variables for the model included propensity for disturbance, status of pond restoration, proximity to water channels, and terrain curvature. A Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was also used to generate a probability map and investigate the statistical probability that each variable contributed to predict pepperweed spread. Results from the GAM revealed distance to channels, distance to ponds and curvature were statistically significant (p < 0.01) in determining the locations of suitable pepperweed habitats.
Pepperweed↗