SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Predictive power”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Coupling between collective modes in the deformed 98 Zr nucleus: Insights from consistent HFB + QRPA calculations with the Gogny interaction

The zirconium isotopes exhibit structural properties that present multiple challenges to nuclear theory. Investigations of the coupling present within isoscalar modes and within isovector modes are scarce but important for advancing our understanding of the microscopic picture of nuclei. To explore some of these underlying coupling features, and to test the predictive power of a state-of-the-art nuclear structure approach, we provide a detailed analysis of the properties of 90,96,98 Zr . This region includes a benchmarking case and offers insights into nuclear deformation phenomena. Here, to investigate the coupling between collective modes in deformed nuclei, we focused our analysis on the ground and excited-state properties of these isotopes, employing a consistent approach with the axially symmetric deformed Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) and the quasiparticle random phase approximation (QRPA) framework, both using the Gogny D1M force. This approach effectively describes both low-lying and giant-resonance states. We devoted special attention to the deformed 98 Zr nucleus, where we confirm the existence of coupling between monopole and quadrupole excitations through the 𝐾 𝜋 = 0 + QRPA components and demonstrate an analogous dipole-octupole coupling through the 𝐾 𝜋 = 0 − and 𝐾 𝜋 = 1 − components. Intrinsic transition densities and associated radial projections illustrate the coupling. Our work complements and extends earlier studies carried out using density-functional-based methods and notably, we included the complete Coulomb interaction also in the pairing fields, i.e., we treat terms exactly that are approximated in typical calculations that use the Gogny D1 and D2 interaction families.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Polarized dipole scattering amplitudes meet the valence quark model

The recently revised small- x helicity evolution [], resumming the double-logarithmic factor, α s ln 2 ( 1 / x ) , allows for the study of helicity distributions of quarks and gluons at small Bjorken x , corresponding to high center-of-mass energy. In this work, we calculate the moderate- x initial conditions in the regime, α s ln 2 ( 1 / x ) ∼ 1 , for the small- x helicity evolution using a light-front valence quark model of the proton, which provides additional physical information about the target. The perturbative emission and absorption of a gluon by the valence quarks are also included. The results, given in Eqs. (35), provide a new set of initial conditions with a significantly reduced number of free parameters than conventional models []. Consequently, the predictive power of small- x helicity evolution is expected to improve once the initial conditions from this work are incorporated. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Phase-space methods for neutrino oscillations: Extension to multibeams

The phase-space approach (PSA), which was originally introduced in Lacroix [] to describe neutrino flavor oscillations for interacting neutrinos emitted from stellar objects is extended to describe arbitrary numbers of neutrino beams. The PSA is based on mapping the quantum fluctuations into a statistical treatment by sampling initial conditions followed by independent mean-field evolution. A new method is proposed to perform this sampling that allows treating an arbitrary number of neutrinos in each neutrino beams. We validate the technique successfully and confirm its predictive power on several examples where a reference exact calculation is possible. We show that it can describe many-body effects, such as entanglement and dissipation induced by the interaction between neutrinos. Due to the complexity of the problem, exact solutions can only be calculated for rather limited cases, with a limited number of beams and/or neutrinos in each beam. The PSA approach considerably reduces the numerical cost and provides an efficient technique to accurately simulate arbitrary numbers of beams. Examples of PSA results are given here, including up to 200 beams with time-independent or time-dependent Hamiltonians. We anticipate that this approach will be useful to bridge exact microscopic techniques with more traditional transport theories used in neutrino oscillations. It will also provide important reference calculations for future quantum computer applications where other techniques are not applicable to classical computers. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Beta-Delayed Neutron Emission of 𝑁=84 132Cd

Using the time-of-flight technique, we measured the beta-delayed neutron emission of 132 Cd . From our large-scale shell model (LSSM) calculation using the N3⁢LO interaction [, Phys. Rev. Lett. 131, 022501 (2023)], we suggest the decay is dominated by the transformation of a neutron in the 𝑔7/2 orbital, deep below the Fermi surface, into a proton in the 𝑔9/2 orbital. We compare the beta-decay half-lives and neutron branching ratios of nuclei with 𝑍<50 and 𝑁 ≥82 obtained with our LSSM with those of leading “global” models such as finite-range droplet model (FRDM). Our calculations match known half-lives and neutron branching ratios well and suggest that current leading models overestimate the yet-to-be-measured half-lives. Our model, backed by the 132 Cd decay data presented here, offers robust predictive power for nuclei of astrophysical interest such as 𝑟-process waiting points.

Madurga, M [Department of Physics and Astronomy, U↗

DOE OSTI2026

Endophyte‐induced systemic spatial reprogramming of metabolism in Populus trichocarpa roots under drought

Beneficial, facultative endophytes help plants thrive in challenging environments by altering their host's metabolism, but how these cellular scale metabolic changes propagate to the systems biology scale is unknown. In this work, we employed a high-resolution chemical imaging approach to map metabolic changes at the Populus trichocarpa root-zone and cell-type levels combined with machine learning (ML) models to identify root metabolites and exudates that have predictive power over treatment class. We found that a nine-strain consortium of beneficial endophytes differentially altered the metabolome of droughted root tissues in a manner specific to cell type and root zone, with endophyte abundance showing a clear correlation to individual metabolites. Our study demonstrates that integrating spatial metabolomics with ML can reveal localized metabolic patterns linked to root–microbe interactions and generate novel hypotheses about underlying biological mechanisms.

Drought↗

DOE OSTI2024

Generalized Bayesian MARS: Tools for Stochastic Computer Model Emulation

The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman and its Bayesian counterpart are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors limits the usefulness of MARS, and many popular alternatives, when dealing with stochastic computer models. Here, we propose a generalized Bayesian MARS (GBMARS) framework which admits the broad class of generalized hyperbolic distributions as the induced likelihood function. This allows us to develop tools for the emulation of stochastic simulators which are parsimonious, scalable, and interpretable and require minimal tuning, while providing powerful predictive and uncertainty quantification capabilities. GBMARS is capable of robust regression with t distributions, quantile regression with asymmetric Laplace distributions, and a general form of “Normal-Wald” regression in which the shape of the error distribution and the structure of the mean function are learned simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GBMARS on various stochastic computer models, and we show that it compares favorably to several popular alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Flux REaction TArget Prioritization (Flux RETAP) v1

Metabolic engineering is evolving rapidly as a result of new advances in synthetic biology and automation, as well as the irruption of machine learning (ML). ML has been shown to provide the predictive power synthetic biology lacked and needed, and to be able to effectively guide the metabolic engineering process. However, current technical limitations prevent the independent application of ML approaches to metabolic engineering without the use of previous biological knowledge in the form of a prioritized list of desirable engineering targets. Here, we present FluxRETAP, a simple and computationally inexpensive method that leverages the prior mechanistic knowledge embedded in genome-scale metabolic models (GSMs) for suggesting targets for genetic overexpression, downregulation or deletion, with the final goal of increasing metabolite production. FluxRETAP captured 100% of reaction targets experimentally verified to improve Escherichia coli isoprenol production in the literature accessible to us, 50% of targets that experimentally improved taxadiene production in E. coli and ~60% of genetic targets from a verified minimal constrained cut-set in Pseudomonas putida while providing additional high priority targets that could be tested. Overall, FluxRETAP is an efficient algorithm for identifying a prioritized list of testable genetic and reaction targets which can also be utilized in ML pipelines.

Czajka, Jeffrey [Battelle Memorial Institute, Paci↗

DOE OSTI2024

Using intrahost single nucleotide variant data to predict SARS-CoV-2 detection cycle threshold values

Over the last four years, each successive wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has been caused by variants with mutations that improve the transmissibility of the virus. Despite this, we still lack tools for predicting clinically important features of the virus. In this study, we show that it is possible to predict the PCR cycle threshold (Ct) values from clinical detection assays using sequence data. Ct values often correspond with patient viral load and the epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic. Using a collection of 36,335 high quality genomes, we built models from SARS-CoV-2 intrahost single nucleotide variant (iSNV) data, computing XGBoost models from the frequencies of A, T, G, C, insertions, and deletions at each position relative to the Wuhan-Hu-1 reference genome. Our best model had an R 2 of 0.604 [0.593–0.616, 95% confidence interval] and a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 5.247 [5.156–5.337], demonstrating modest predictive power. Overall, we show that the results are stable relative to an external holdout set of genomes selected from SRA and are robust to patient status and the detection instruments that were used. This study highlights the importance of developing modeling strategies that can be applied to publicly available genome sequence data for use in disease prevention and control.

COVID19↗

DOE OSTI2024

Annual Report for Structure-Aware Unsupervised, Transformational Machine Learning for Drug Discovery

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantum Monte Carlo Calculations of Chemical Binding and Reactions

The auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo method developed by the PIs has been shown to provide the most accurate description of strongly correlated electronic systems, from molecules to solids. Unlike other explicitly many‐body approaches, the quantum Monte Carlo method scales as a low order polynomial of systems size, similar to mean‐field methods such as density functional theory. However, the auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo algorithm is significantly more expensive than traditional density functional calculations. This creates a bottleneck for applications to extended systems, such as large molecules and solids. One principal objective of this proposal was to develop new auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo computational strategies to achieve improved scaling with system size, using downfolding and localization schemes, without sacrificing the predictive power of the calculations. A second goal is to extend the reach of auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo to calculate excited states. This final report summarizes what has been achieved during the course the project toward these goals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Identifying Controlling Variables for Mercury Vapors in Alpha-4 at Y-12: Two Year Data Collection Update

Multiple sensor packages were deployed at Alpha-4 by SRNL, in collaboration with United Cleanup Oak Ridge LLC (UCOR), to monitor mercury vapor concentrations and meteorological parameters. These sensors collected data, inside and outside of the legacy-use facility, for approximately two years. Though data gaps still exist, particularly in colder months, several controlling variables were identified that govern mercury vapor concentrations within Alpha-4. Temperature, barometric pressure gradients, humidity, and wind speed have been identified as controlling variables. A strong positive correlation was seen between mercury vapor concentrations and temperature which generally followed diurnal fluctuations. Temperatures below approximately 10 degrees Celsius did not show any spikes above the PEL, indicating more work can be performed at any time during the winter months – more data should be collected to confirm consistency in this finding. Additionally, spikes in mercury vapor concentrations above that of the permissible exposure limit (PEL; 100 µg/m 3 ) occurred primarily in late afternoon or evening/overnight hours (between 3 PM and 6 AM), which suggests D&D operations might be best scheduled during morning or daytime hours prior to the late afternoon. However, a limited number of spikes did occur outside of the identified window, although this may be attributed to disturbances in air flow and mercury vapor release from work activities performed inside of the Alpha-4 building. The analysis conducted allows for a strong predictive capability for estimating mercury vapor concentrations based upon accurate meteorological parameters. Still, additional data collection, particularly in the winter months, could help to strengthen the predictive power and validate the identified data trends. Further, increased temporal resolution could also help to better characterize the incipient stages of the increases and decreases in the mercury vapor concentration. Continued monitoring support by SRNL at Y-12 is underway at Alpha-4 to further close remaining data gaps and support deactivation and decommissioning work. Within a collaborative effort with UCOR, the SRNL team is collecting mercury vapor data to study the efficacy of a novel mercury suppressant, FerroBlack® which was recently deployed at Alpha-4. In addition, modifications to the current monitoring setup to increase measurement resolution is also being investigated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Coupling between collective modes in the deformed 98 Zr nucleus: Insights from consistent HFB+QRPA calculations with the Gogny interaction

The Zirconium isotopes exhibit structural properties that present multiple challenges to nuclear theory. Investigations of the coupling present within isoscalar modes and within isovector modes are scarce but important for advancing our understanding of the microscopic picture of nuclei. To explore some of these underlying coupling features, and to test the predictive power of a state-of the-art nuclear structure approach, we provide a detailed analysis of the properties of 90,96,98Zr. This region includes a benchmarking case and offers insights into nuclear deformation phenomena. To investigate the coupling between collective modes in deformed nuclei, we focused our analysis on the ground and excited-state properties of these isotopes, employing a consistent approach with the axially-symmetric deformed Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB) and the Quasiparticle Random Phase Approximation (QRPA) framework, both using the Gogny D1M force. This approach effectively describes both low-lying and giant-resonance states. We devoted special attention to the deformed 98Zr nucleus, where we confirm the existence of coupling between monopole and quadrupole excitations through the K π = 0 + QRPA components and demonstrate an analogous dipole-octupole coupling through the K π = 0 − and K π = 1 − components. Intrinsic transition densities and associ ated radial projections illustrate the coupling. Our work complements and extends earlier studies carried out using density-functional-based methods and notably, we included the complete Coulomb interaction also in the pairing fields, i.e. we treat terms exactly that are approximated in typical calculations that use the Gogny D1 and D2 interaction families.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning guided selection of broad-spectrum epitope-specific functional antibodies for "Disease X"

Our project established and demonstrated a transfer learning framework that enables prediction of antibody–antigen interactions across related viruses. The approach focused on three major activities: 1. Conserved region and epitope identification – We compared viral protein structures and sequences to identify shared receptor-binding domains and neutralizing epitope regions across variants and related viruses. These conserved features formed the foundation for discovering broadly functional antibodies. 2. Machine learning model development – We built neural network–based models that integrate epitope features with antibody sequence information. Instead of relying solely on structural or physical properties, the models learned transferable patterns that describe antibody binding potential across different viral families. 3. Transfer learning and validation – Using SARS-CoV-2 and Ebola as source systems, we successfully transferred learned epitope features to predict antibody interactions for SARS CoV-1 and Marburg virus. Iterative cycles of dataset generation, retraining, and evaluation improved generalization and predictive power, ensuring the framework can adapt to new threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structure-Aware Unsupervised, Transformational Machine Learning for Drug Discovery (DTRA Basic Research Final Report)

The major goal of this project is to develop machine learning (ML) methods to enable improved predictive power on real drug discovery for novel targets. More specifically, we planned to demonstrate the capability and effectiveness of ML tools utilizing unlabeled large-volume protein-ligand datasets. We investigated multiple pre-training approaches for 3D protein-ligand structure-based foundation models, without relying on experimental binding data. We also addressed scenarios in which crystal structures are unavailable or binding data are limited. We also planned to develop a complete pipeline to screen novel compounds as well as to demonstrate the capability and effectiveness of the developed methods by testing on a realistic drug discovery task such as SARS-CoV-2. While the major goals and milestones remain consistent with the original proposal, certain technical details have been adjusted, based on the experimental results and related outcomes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accretion onto a Supermassive Black Hole Binary before Merger

While supermassive binary black holes (SMBBHs) inspiral toward merger they may also accrete matter from a surrounding disk. To study the dynamics of this system requires simultaneously describing the evolving spacetime and the magnetized plasma. We present the first relativistic calculation simulating two equal-mass, nonspinning black holes as they inspiral from a 20 M (G = c = 1) initial separation almost to merger. Our results imply important observational consequences: for instance, the accretion rate $\dot{M}$ onto the black holes first decreases and then plateaus, dropping by only a factor of ~3 despite the rapid inspiral. An estimated bolometric light curve follows the same profile, suggesting some merging SMBBHs may be significantly luminous past the predicted circumbinary disk decoupling. The minidisks are nonstandard: Reynolds, not Maxwell, stresses dominate, and they oscillate between two states. In one part of the cycle, "sloshing" streams transfer mass between minidisks, carrying kinetic energy at a rate sometimes as high as the peak minidisk bolometric luminosity. We also discover that episodic accretion drives time-varying minidisk tilts. These complex dynamics all contribute to unique cyclical behavior in the light curves of late-time inspiraling SMBBHs. The poloidal magnetic flux on the black holes is roughly constant at a dimensionless level $\phi$ ~ 2–3, but doubles just before merger; for significant black hole spin, this flux predicts powerful jets with variability driven by binary dynamics, another potentially unique electromagnetic signature. This simulation is the first to employ our multipatch infrastructure PATCHWORK MHD, decreasing the computational expense to ~3% of conventional single-grid methods' cost.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

How to Safely Build 100-plus Kilograms of Weapons-Grade Plutonium

The goal of the EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) project was to reduce compensating errors by utilizing machine learning to both help determine which reactions contain compensating errors as well as optimizing an experiment which can be used to maximally reduce these errors. Compensating errors can adversely impact the predictive power of application simulations, and therefore it’s useful to further constrain nuclear data and reduce these errors. The EUCLID project included building two configurations at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). These two configurations had very different geometries (one was cube-like and one was slab-like). Previous works focus on selection of the target experiment(s), radiation transport capabilities developed in the project, the experiment optimization, and the performance of the experiments. This work will focus only on the safety aspects of performing this experiment, which utilized over 100 kg of weapons-grade plutonium.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

NEA HTTR LOFC Project Test#3 Benchmark Results

In the second half of FY23, the High Temperature Engineering Test Reactor (HTTR) Loss Of Forced Cooling (LOFC)#3 data for the 9 MW test case with Vessel Cooling System (VCS) off were made available through the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) LOFC project framework; the neutronic model developed for the initial test (LOFC#1) achieved a satisfactory level of maturity, demonstrating its accuracy in predicting power evolution and core re-criticality, but LOFC#3 should be used primarily to investigate thermal hydraulic phenomena, as the reactor was shut down prematurely due to overheating in the upper reactor components, which prevented re-criticality; this report focuses on advancing the HTTR thermal hydraulic model to accurately simulate the LOFC#3 scenario, including simulating the LOFC#3 benchmark and generating the corresponding benchmark specifications, aiming to ensure consistency across participant models and provide essential data for future participants, including private industry stakeholders seeking to validate their computational tools.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pion Nucleon Scattering in BCHPT Combined with 1/Nc Expansion

Pion nucleon scattering has played a crucial role in advancing our understanding of the low-energy regime of strong interactions. This dissertation presents the development of a new theoretical framework that combines Baryon Chiral Perturbation Theory (BChPT) with the 1/Nc Expansion to analyze pion nucleon scattering. The resulting effective Lagrangian incorporates both chiral and spin-flavor symmetries. Scattering amplitudes are calculated up to the one-loop level (NNLO), which includes four tree-level Feynman diagrams and 45 non-zero loop diagrams. The effective Lagrangian is renormalized at the one-loop level. With spin-3/2 baryons naturally included, the framework demonstrates strong convergence at higher energies. The NNLO pion nucleon scattering amplitude shows good agreement with experimental data from the SAID database. This novel approach, BChPT combined with 1/Nc Expansion, demonstrates substantial predictive power at higher energies where other low-energy theories fall short, achieving the goals of this combined framework. The contribution from loop diagrams is essential for achieving good agreement with the data, highlighting the importance of conducting the calculation up to NNLO. Extracted values for physically measurable quantities agree reasonably well with independently extracted values, underscoring the robustness of the theory.

Jayakodige, Dulitha [Hampton Univ., Hampton, VA (U↗