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At least 91 records · Page 5

Scalable learning of potentials to predict time-dependent Hartree–Fock dynamics

We propose a framework to learn the time-dependent Hartree–Fock (TDHF) inter-electronic potential of a molecule from its electron density dynamics. Although the entire TDHF Hamiltonian, including the inter-electronic potential, can be computed from first principles, we use this problem as a testbed to develop strategies that can be applied to learn a priori unknown terms that arise in other methods/approaches to quantum dynamics, e.g., emerging problems such as learning exchange–correlation potentials for time-dependent density functional theory. We develop, train, and test three models of the TDHF inter-electronic potential, each parameterized by a four-index tensor of size up to 60 × 60 × 60 × 60. Two of the models preserve Hermitian symmetry, while one model preserves an eight-fold permutation symmetry that implies Hermitian symmetry. Across seven different molecular systems, we find that accounting for the deeper eight-fold symmetry leads to the best-performing model across three metrics: training efficiency, test set predictive power, and direct comparison of true and learned inter-electronic potentials. All three models, when trained on ensembles of field-free trajectories, generate accurate electron dynamics predictions even in a field-on regime that lies outside the training set. To enable our models to scale to large molecular systems, we derive expressions for Jacobian-vector products that enable iterative, matrix-free training.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Realistic Specific Power Expectations for Advanced Radioisotope Power Systems

Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS) are being considered for a wide range of future NASA space science and exploration missions. Generally, RPS offer the advantages of high reliability, long life, and predictable power production regardless of operating environment. Previous RPS, in the form of Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTG), have been used successfully on many NASA missions including Apollo, Viking, Voyager, and Galileo. NASA is currently evaluating design options for the next generation of RPS. Of particular interest is the use of advanced, higher efficiency power conversion to replace the previous thermoelectric devices. Higher efficiency reduces the quantity of radioisotope fuel and potentially improves the RPS specific power (watts per kilogram). Power conversion options include Segmented Thermoelectric (STE), Stirling, Brayton, and Thermophotovoltaic (TPV). This paper offers an analysis of the advanced 100 watt-class RPS options and provides credible projections for specific power. Based on the analysis presented, RPS specific power values greater than 10 W/kg appear unlikely.

Mason, Lee S.↗

Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

Pullkkinen, A.↗

Automatic Data Filter Customization Using a Genetic Algorithm

This work predicts whether a retrieval algorithm will usefully determine CO2 concentration from an input spectrum of GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite). This was done to eliminate needless runtime on atmospheric soundings that would never yield useful results. A space of 50 dimensions was examined for predictive power on the final CO2 results. Retrieval algorithms are frequently expensive to run, and wasted effort defeats requirements and expends needless resources. This algorithm could be used to help predict and filter unneeded runs in any computationally expensive regime. Traditional methods such as the Fischer discriminant analysis and decision trees can attempt to predict whether a sounding will be properly processed. However, this work sought to detect a subsection of the dimensional space that can be simply filtered out to eliminate unwanted runs. LDAs (linear discriminant analyses) and other systems examine the entire data and judge a "best fit," giving equal weight to complex and problematic regions as well as simple, clear-cut regions. In this implementation, a genetic space of "left" and "right" thresholds outside of which all data are rejected was defined. These left/right pairs are created for each of the 50 input dimensions. A genetic algorithm then runs through countless potential filter settings using a JPL computer cluster, optimizing the tossed-out data s yield (proper vs. improper run removal) and number of points tossed. This solution is robust to an arbitrary decision boundary within the data and avoids the global optimization problem of whole-dataset fitting using LDA or decision trees. It filters out runs that would not have produced useful CO2 values to save needless computation. This would be an algorithmic preprocessing improvement to any computationally expensive system.

Mandrake, Lukas↗

Power density measurements in the near field of the DSS 13 26-meter antenna

Power density measurements were made at Deep Space Station (DSS) 13 in the near field of the 26-m antenna to determine if radio frequency (rf) fields generated by the 20-kW transmitters could be responsible for the failure of three solid state rf amplifiers. These amplifiers are used in the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) Radio Spectrum Surveillance System, which is currently located at the site. Measurements were made independently for one transmitter at 7150 MHz, and both transmitters together. Measurement results are tabulated and compared with predicted power densities under the measurement conditions. The results agree with the predictions within a factor of two. The predictions appear to give worst case values. Measurements indicated that amplifier failures are not attributable to the transmitter.

Jackson, E. B.↗

POWER's Journey and Roadmap: Where Have We Been and Where Are We Going?

This is a keynote presentation for the NASA LaRC's POWER (Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) Project's Global Summit to be held from November 6-7 as a on-line interactive webinar. This presentation presents a quick overview of the POWER project, the most recent accomplishments and the an overview of POWER's initiatives in 2025 and beyond.

remote sensing↗

ML-Based Pebble Power Reconstruction for Pebble Bed Reactor Analysis

Pebble power reconstruction has been explored to complement the conventional homogenized modeling approach in pebble bed reactor (PBR) analysis, as detailed heterogeneous geometry calculations are computationally expensive. The random distribution of pebble fuels within the core challenges the application of conventional pin power reconstruction methods. To address this, we introduce a machine learning approach based on the transformer model, composed of encoder and decoder layers, to estimate the flux and power form functions for reconstructing individual pebble neutron fluxes and powers. The homogeneous neutron flux distribution within each spectral zone (SZ) is obtained from finite element solutions of global diffusion or transport calculations. Verification tests demonstrate that the trained transformer model accurately predicts power form functions over a range of conditions, including variations in pebble enrichment, location, type, SZ size, and burnup. In particular, verification using a three-dimensional PBR benchmark with burned pebbles shows good agreement in heterogeneous pebble power distributions between Griffin and Serpent. These results highlight the potential of applying conventional pin power reconstruction approaches to PBR cores with randomly distributed pebbles.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Sparse non-Markovian Noise Modeling of Transmon-Based Multi-Qubit Operations

The influence of noise on quantum dynamics is one of the main factors preventing current quantum processors from performing accurate quantum computations. Sufficient noise characterization and modeling can provide key insights into the effect of noise on quantum algorithms and inform the design of targeted error protection protocols. However, constructing effective noise models that are sparse in model parameters, yet predictive can be challenging. In this work, we present an approach for effective noise modeling of multi-qubit operations on transmon-based devices. Through a comprehensive characterization of seven devices offered by the IBM Quantum Platform, we show that the model can capture and predict a wide range of single- and two-qubit behaviors, including non-Markovian effects resulting from spatiotemporally correlated noise sources. The model’s predictive power is further highlighted through multi-qubit dynamical decoupling demonstrations and an implementation of the variational quantum eigensolver. As a training proxy for the hardware, we show that the model can predict expectation values within a relative error of 0.5%; this is a sevenfold improvement over default hardware noise models. Through these demonstrations, we highlight key error sources in superconducting qubits and illustrate the utility of reduced noise models for predicting hardware dynamics.

open quantum systems & decoherence↗

Refining T c Prediction in Hydrides via Symbolic‐Regression‐Enhanced Electron‐Localization‐Function‐Based Descriptors

Hydrogen‐based materials are able to possess extremely high superconducting critical temperatures, T c s , due to hydrogen's low atomic mass and strong electron–phonon interaction. Recently, a descriptor based on the Electron Localization Function (ELF) has enabled the rapid estimation of the T c of hydrogen‐containing compounds from electronic networking properties, but its applicability has been limited by the small size and homogeneity of the training dataset used. Herein, the model is re‐examined, compiling a publicly available combined dataset of 244 binary and ternary hydride superconductors. The analysis shows that though ELF‐based networking remains a valuable descriptor, its predictive power declines with increasing compositional complexity. However, by introducing the molecularity index, defined as the highest value of the ELF at which two hydrogen atoms connect, and applying symbolic regression, the accuracy of the predictions can be substantially enhanced. These results establish a more robust framework for assessing superconductivity in hydride materials, facilitating accelerated screening of novel candidates through integration with crystal structure prediction methods or high‐throughput searches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Development and Validation of a Slosh-Based Ullage Collapse Model

Ullage collapse modeling is an essential tool for the success of spacecraft powered by cryogenic propellants. The degree of ullage collapse can have a major impact on the design of cryogenic propellant tanks as well as the mission’s concept of operations. Additional commodities (e.g., helium gas for pressure control) and their quantities are dependent on the amount of heat transfer and phase change of propellants expected during flight. Currently, high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with heat transfer and phase change is the most accurate method for predicting ullage collapse. CFD simulations of this kind, however, can become very costly for problems requiring large domains, long simulation times, or significant liquid motion. Consequently, there is a need for a reduced order model to provide fast responses which can be used in engineering design decisions. The proposed numerical model is a nodal approach, augmented by outputs from CFD analyses that are generated rapidly and reliably. These outputs include transient values for liquid-vapor interface area, interface velocity, and liquid position using a volume of fluid (VoF) method. There are several benefits of combining a nodal approach with slosh predictions from CFD simulations: leveraging of the Loci/STREAM-VoF solver that has been validated in high-g and low-g environments, rapid modeling of VoF with isothermal propellant simplifications and relatively coarse meshes, and improved model predictions from the nodal tool. The nodal approach, informed by the slosh predictions from CFD, assumes uniform conditions in the liquid and gas domains. Modifications to account for temperature stratification in the liquid and gas may be implemented as a future improvement. Thermodynamic changes within the tank are solved at user-defined timesteps. First, impacts due to mass entering or leaving the control volume are captured. Second, heat transfer impacts are accounted for by tracking the volume of the gas which has been contacted by liquid in that timestep and rebalancing the internal energy. Finally, phase change is approximated using the area and velocity of the interface. The tank conditions are re-computed by conserving mass and energy. Calibration of the model to several test flights and experiments are required to baseline the predictive power and uncertainty. The final product will enable designers and engineers to create quick-turnaround predictions for ullage collapse and inform design feasibility.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

Heat Transfer Measurements and Predictions on a Power Generation Gas Turbine Blade

Detailed heat transfer measurements and predictions are given for a power generation turbine rotor with 129 deg of nominal turning and an axial chord of 137 mm. Data were obtained for a set of four exit Reynolds numbers comprised of the design point of 628,000, -20%, +20%, and +40%. Three ideal exit pressure ratios were examined including the design point of 1.378, -10%, and +10%. Inlet incidence angles of 0 deg and +/-2 deg were also examined. Measurements were made in a linear cascade with highly three-dimensional blade passage flows that resulted from the high flow turning and thick inlet boundary layers. Inlet turbulence was generated with a blown square bar grid. The purpose of the work is the extension of three-dimensional predictive modeling capability for airfoil external heat transfer to engine specific conditions including blade shape, Reynolds numbers, and Mach numbers. Data were obtained by a steady-state technique using a thin-foil heater wrapped around a low thermal conductivity blade. Surface temperatures were measured using calibrated liquid crystals. The results show the effects of strong secondary vortical flows, laminar-to-turbulent transition, and also show good detail in the stagnation region.

Giel, Paul W.↗

Thermal and electric multidomain dynamic model for integration of power grid distribution with behind-the-meter devices

As renewable energy sources like solar and wind power become more integrated into the grid, coordinated control of behind-the-meter devices is crucial for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability and for meeting cost targets, with standardized models being developed to support this transition. The increasing flexibility and uncertainty of integrated renewable energy grids, along with interactions between various subsystems, make traditional steady-state modeling insufficient to capture transient and dynamic behaviors. Current models (e.g., composite load and battery equivalent models) focus on thermodynamic or electrical characteristics but overlook critical electromechanical interactions. This limits the ability to share performance information for grid services and hampers fast dynamic simulations. In addition, motor stalling is usually triggered by a fault event and attributed to the characteristics of the mechanical torque of the motor, resulting in absorption of a large amount of reactive power during the stalling period. Further, this significant withdrawal of reactive power will deteriorate the dynamic voltage stability of power grids and cause delayed voltage recovery. Therefore, an in-depth modeling of the thermodynamics or mechanical torque is essential to study the impacts of the realistic torque characteristics of those behind-the-meter devices on power system voltage stability. This study developed a dynamic multidomain model for building HVAC systems, such as air-source heat pumps, to simulate their thermal and electrical responses to grid transients. The model can accurately predict power metrics with a mean absolute percentage error of 10%, by validating against with power system computer-aided design performance data. Case studies demonstrate the model capability of capturing the transient response to sudden voltage changes, rapid load fluctuations, and system shutdowns respectively. During a sudden voltage drop (30% for 0.1s), a fully loaded heat pump’s motor speed dropped, continued declining, and shut down after 3.6s, with severe power oscillations and a torque spike. A partially loaded unit experienced temporary oscillations but stabilized. Under higher building loads, compressor speed increased from 64% to 100%, with power and torque rising before stabilizing. In safety-triggered shutdowns, power decreased after minor fluctuations, and torque briefly spiked before dropping to zero.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Physical Structure of Four Symbiotic Binaries

Disk accretion powers many astronomical objects, including pre-main sequence stars, interacting binary systems, and active galactic nuclei. Unfortunately, models developed to explain the behavior of disks and their surroundings - boundary layers, jets, and winds - lack much predictive power, because the physical mechanism driving disk evolution - the viscosity - is not understood. Observations of many types of accreting systems are needed to constrain the basic physics of disks and provide input for improved models. Symbiotic stars are an attractive laboratory for studying physical phenomena associated with disk accretion. These long period binaries (P(sub orb) approx. 2-3 yr) contain an evolved red giant star, a hot companion, and an ionized nebula. The secondary star usually is a white dwarf accreting material from the wind of its red giant companion. A good example of this type of symbiotic is BF Cygni: our analysis shows that disk accretion powers the nuclear burning shell of the hot white dwarf and also manages to eject material perpendicular to the orbital plane (Mikolajewska, Kenyon, and Mikolajewski 1989). The hot components in other symbiotic binaries appear powered by tidal overflow from a very evolved red giant companion. We recently completed a study of CI Cygni and demonstrated that the accreting secondary is a solar-type main sequence star, rather than a white dwarf (Kenyon et aL 1991). This project continued our study of symbiotic binary systems. Our general plan was to combine archival ultraviolet and optical spectrophotometry with high quality optical radial velocity observations to determine the variation of line and continuum sources as functions of orbital phase. We were very successful in generating orbital solutions and phasing UV+optical spectra for five systems: AG Dra, V443 Her, RW Hya, AG Peg, and AX Per. Summaries of our main results for these systems appear below. A second goal of our project was to consider general models for the outbursts of symbiotic stars, with an emphasis on understanding the differences between disk-driven and nuclear-powered eruptions.

Kenyon, Scott J.↗

Program for Heat Flow in Welding

Program contains numerical model of temperature distribution in vicinity of weld. Weld model used to produce estimated welding power requirements, welding-power-loss analysis, heat-affected-zone temperature history, and weld-puddle cross-section plots. Applied to gas/tungsten-arc, plasma-arc, electron-beam, and laser-beam welds on wide plates under steady conditions. User predicts power requirements and temperature distributions. Weld model written in BASIC.

Nunes, A. C., Jr.↗

Conceptual definition of Automated Power Systems Management

Automated Power Systems Management (APSM) is defined as the capability of a spacecraft power system to automatically perform monitoring, computational, command, and control functions without ground intervention. Power systems for future planetary spacecraft must have this capability because they must perform up to 10 years, and accommodate real-time changes in mission execution autonomously. Specific APSM functions include fault detection, isolation, and correction; system performance and load profile prediction; power system optimization; system checkout; and data storage and transmission control. This paper describes the basic method of implementing these specific functions. The APSM hardware includes a central power system computer and a processor dedicated to each major power system subassembly along with digital interface circuitry. The major payoffs anticipated are in enhancement of spacecraft reliability and life and reduction of overall spacecraft program cost.

Imamura, M. S.↗

Identification of pressure points in modern power systems using transfer entropy

Power shortages disrupt daily life, economic activity, and essential services. In modern power systems, weather is an increasingly important driver of reliability: high temperatures raise demand and limit transmission capacity, and calm or cloudy periods reduce wind and solar supply. Using a data-driven analysis, this study identifies grid infrastructure whose operating patterns help predict power shortages. The results show that reliability risks often emerge from interacting stresses across generation, transmission, and demand, rather than from single bottlenecks. By clarifying how system stress propagates through the grid, this diagnostic perspective helps explain why shortages occur under specific conditions and can complement traditional planning and operational tools to support adaptive reliability strategies, targeted monitoring, and coordinated infrastructure investments.

power systems↗

Advanced surrogate model for electron-scale turbulence in tokamak pedestals

We derive an advanced surrogate model for predicting turbulent transport at the edge of tokamaks driven by electron temperature gradient (ETG) modes. Our derivation is based on a recently developed sensitivity-driven sparse grid interpolation approach for uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis at scale, which informs the set of parameters that define the surrogate model as a scaling law. Our model reveals that ETG-driven electron heat flux is influenced by the safety factor q, electron beta β e and normalized electron Debye length λ D , in addition to well-established parameters such as the electron temperature and density gradients. To assess the trustworthiness of our model's predictions beyond training, we compute prediction intervals using bootstrapping. The surrogate model's predictive power is tested across a wide range of parameter values, including within-distribution testing parameters (to verify our model) as well as out-of-bounds and out-of-distribution testing (to validate the proposed model). Overall, validation efforts show that our model competes well with, or can even outperform, existing scaling laws in predicting ETG-driven transport.

fusion plasma↗