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NASA NTRS2008

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Two-Parameter Impedance Prediction Model

This paper presents comparisons of predicted impedance uncertainty limits derived from Monte-Carlo-type simulations with a Two-Parameter (TP) impedance prediction model and measured impedance uncertainty limits based on multiple tests acquired in NASA Langley test rigs. These predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits are used to evaluate the effects of simultaneous randomization of each input parameter for the impedance prediction and measurement processes. A sensitivity analysis is then used to further evaluate the TP prediction model by varying its input parameters on an individual basis. The variation imposed on the input parameters is based on measurements conducted with multiple tests in the NASA Langley normal incidence and grazing incidence impedance tubes; thus, the input parameters are assigned uncertainties commensurate with those of the measured data. These same measured data are used with the NASA Langley impedance measurement (eduction) processes to determine the corresponding measured impedance uncertainty limits, such that the predicted and measured impedance uncertainty limits (95% confidence intervals) can be compared. The measured reactance 95% confidence intervals encompass the corresponding predicted reactance confidence intervals over the frequency range of interest. The same is true for the confidence intervals of the measured and predicted resistance at near-resonance frequencies, but the predicted resistance confidence intervals are lower than the measured resistance confidence intervals (no overlap) at frequencies away from resonance. A sensitivity analysis indicates the discharge coefficient uncertainty is the major contributor to uncertainty in the predicted impedances for the perforate-over-honeycomb liner used in this study. This insight regarding the relative importance of each input parameter will be used to guide the design of experiments with test rigs currently being brought on-line at NASA Langley.

Jones, M. G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Physical Interpretation of Early Battery Life Prediction Models

Early battery life prediction models are most useful for R&D if they help us understand the early changes in battery electrochemical response that correspond with long-term degradation and failure. Linear regression models such as Fused lasso and Partial Least Squares can fit coefficients directly to high-dimensional electrochemical data like capacity-voltage and ΔV–state-of-charge, i.e., Q(V) and ΔV(SOC) curves, learning coefficients that can be physically interpreted. We leverage the ISU-ILCC battery aging data set to learn high-dimensional coefficients for early battery life prediction from traditional slow-rate capacity check data, demonstrating learning on Q(V), d Q· d V −1 , and ΔV(SOC) curves. A thorough study on the dependence of coefficient values on train/test size and data preprocessing methods is made, demonstrating the reliability of high-dimensional regression approaches unless very small amounts of data are used for model training. For this data set, coefficients from Q(V) and d Q· d V −1 models highlight changes in electrode stoichiometry due to lithium loss, while ΔV(SOC) coefficients highlight changes in positive electrode diffusivity due to particle cracking as well as electrode stoichiometry shifts. By directly interpreting the coefficients of a regression model, we make physical insights into battery degradation mechanisms without requiring the assumptions of traditional battery data analysis methods.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Predictive Model for Internal Magazine Temperatures

This report describes data and methodology used to predict temperatures inside magazines used to store explosive devices, based on outside temperatures from a local weather station and data logged by sensors inside a single magazine over a limited period. It follows on earlier work and predictive models. In conjunction with aging models, predicted temperatures can be used to estimate degradation in the performance of explosives over long periods of storage.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ontologies at Work: Analyzing Information Requirements for Model Predictive Control in Buildings

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has shown significant potential for improving energy efficiency, indoor air quality and occupant comfort of buildings. MPC-based control algorithms have also shown the ability to shift loads and optimize for multiple objectives, including but not limited to reducing the green-house gas emissions, energy costs and peak demand. However, one of the main implementation challenges of these control algorithms is the integration and configuration effort needed to deploy a supervisory MPC controller in a building. By assigning standardized references to information sources and control points in buildings, existing studies have shown that semantic ontologies and corresponding queries have the potential to ease the deployment of such controllers. Yet, the use of semantic information to ease the deployment processes of MPC controllers is still limited. In this paper, we review three MPC experiments and synthesize the information requirements of these optimization problems. We then turn to existing and upcoming semantic ontologies such as Brick, SAREF and ASHRAE Standard 223 to represent these requirements, evaluating their potential to support the implementation of an MPC controller. This investigation concludes with a discussion of existing opportunities and open questions that the community should explore to support more streamlined MPC implementations.

Prakash, Anand Krishnan↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm

A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.

Ackmece, A. Behcet↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine‐learning‐based construction of barrier functions and models for safe model predictive control

Abstract In this paper, we propose a control Lyapunov‐barrier function‐based model predictive control method utilizing a feed‐forward neural network specified control barrier function (CBF) and a recurrent neural network (RNN) predictive model to stabilize nonlinear processes with input constraints, and to guarantee that safety requirements are met for all times. The nonlinear system is first modeled using RNN techniques, and a CBF is characterized by constructing a feed‐forward neural network (FNN) model with unique structures and properties. The FNN model for the CBF is trained based on data samples collected from safe and unsafe operating regions, and the resulting FNN model is verified to demonstrate that the safety properties of the CBF are satisfied. Given sufficiently small bounded modeling errors for both the FNN and the RNN models, the proposed control system is able to guarantee closed‐loop stability while preventing the closed‐loop states from entering unsafe regions in state‐space under sample‐and‐hold control action implementation. We provide the theoretical analysis for bounded unsafe sets in state‐space, and demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy using a nonlinear chemical process example with a bounded unsafe region.

Chen, Scarlett↗

DOE OSTI2017

Predictive modelling of hydration and mechanical performance of low Ca composite cements: Possibilities and limitations from industrial perspective

We quantified hydration and performance development of composites cements containing metakaolin in the rage of 0–40% and investigated applicability of thermodynamic and micromechanical models to predict the evolution of hydrates assemblage and of performance, respectively. The reaction of metakaolin results in a formation of significant amounts of C-S-H phase for lower metakaolin content and of strätlingite for higher contents. This leads to very dense matrix with finer porosity allowing co-existence of thermodynamically incompatible phases, namely portlandite and strätlingite. Hence, thermodynamic modelling cannot be applied to correctly predict the phase assemblage for the systems with high metakaolin content. By introducing constraints into the thermodynamic model in a form of minimum phase content, the XRD-amorphous phases can be quantified. However, such constraints are only valid for the cases studied and limit the general applicability and predictive power of the model. Elastic properties and strength of mortars are influenced by the metakaolin additions in an opposite trend. It indicates that they are sensitive to different microstructural features/mechanisms. Continuum micromechanic-based model is capable to accurately predict the performance evolution based on the volume of hydrates predicted by the thermodynamic modelling. An additional step required for the accurate prediction - porosity is partitioned based on its saturation at 95% RH – is introduced and substantiated.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning-based predictive models for laser direct drive at the Omega Laser Facility

The rich and complex physics of inertial confinement fusion provides a unique and challenging space for high-fidelity first-principles modeling. Consequently, simulation codes that are used to design experiments are computationally expensive and lack the predictive capability required for extensive parameter exploration in search of a high-performing design for laser direct drive. In this article, we present two deep-learning-based predictive models intended to address these difficulties. The first model (TL DNN) acts as a fast emulator of simulations as well as experiments at the Omega Laser Facility. This model is trained on a simulation database and subsequently calibrated on experimental data using transfer learning. To facilitate the development of this model, an autoencoder is developed to reduce the dimensionality of the input space by compressing the laser pulse input. The model predicts key experimental scalar observables of Omega experiments with high accuracy and minimal computational cost. This deep neural net enables rapid exploration of a high-dimensional input parameter space for an optimal implosion design. The second model (DNN SM+) aims to extend the statistical modeling work of Lees et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 127, 105001 (2021)], by increasing the complexity of the model space and allowing for coupling between degradation terms. Since the model capacity of DNN SM+ is higher than the model of Lees et al., DNN SM+ can potentially provide an improvement in predictive capability, and we use this model to provide insight into complicated degradation dependencies.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A field guide for aging passerine nestlings using growth data and predictive modeling

Abstract Background Accurate nestling age is valuable for studies on nesting strategies, productivity, and impacts on reproductive success. Most aging guides consist of descriptions and photographs that are time consuming to read and subjective to interpret. The Western Bluebird ( Sialia mexicana ) is a secondary cavity-nesting passerine that nests in coniferous and open deciduous forests. Nest box programs for cavity-nesting species have provided suitable nesting locations and opportunities for data collection on nestling growth and development. Methods We developed models for predicting the age of Western Bluebird nestlings from morphometric measurements using model training and validation. These were developed for mass, tarsus, and two different culmen measurements. Results Our models were accurate to within less than a day, and each model worked best for a specific age range. The mass and tarsus models can be used to estimate the ages of Western Bluebird nestlings 0–10 days old and were accurate to within 0.5 days for mass and 0.7 days for tarsus. The culmen models can be used to estimate ages of nestlings 0–15 days old and were also accurate to within less than a day. The daily mean, minimum, and maximum values of each morphometric measurement are provided and can be used in the field for accurate nestling age estimations in real time. Conclusions The model training and validation procedures used here demonstrate that this method can create aging models that are highly accurate. The methods can be applied to any passerine species provided sufficient nestling morphometric data are available.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Scale Computational Platform for Predictive Modeling of Corrosion in Al-Steel Joints (Final Report)

The research team proposed to develop innovative multi-scale models to predict corrosion and the resulting mechanical performances in aluminum-steel joints. The methods of joining considered are resistance spot welding, self-piercing riveting, and rivet-welding, all suitable for mass production applications. The multi-scale models integrate high throughput first-principle calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), high throughput calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling, and finite element method (FEM) simulations. These models are to be validated through laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the models are available as open source so as to enable scientists and engineers in the community to adapt and contribute to the development and application. The approaches rely on the research team’s extensive experience on the prediction of properties of individual phases at finite temperatures and variable compositions through DFT calculations, and our broad expertise on dissimilar material joining and their corrosion. The proposed computational framework enables high throughput computations for improved predictions of corrosion and the associated mechanical performance in dissimilar material joints, resulting in significant reduction in computational time needed by the current state-of-the-art methods. With the participation of researchers from three universities, an auto manufacturer, two manufacturing technology/equipment suppliers, and a software developer/vendor, the interdisciplinary research team applies the technical development on both phase-based modeling and laboratory experiments into the automobile body joining processes for validation and technology demonstration. The global cost of corrosion was estimated at about 3.4% of the global GDP in 2013. By using available corrosion control practices, it is estimated a saving between 15-35% of the cost of corrosion. In the U.S., more than $276 billion is spent repairing corrosion damage. Prediction of the corrosion and its impact on performance of the dissimilar material joints is critical for reducing the massive number of the current corrosion-based recalls for automobiles. Thus, the project goal is to develop models to enable predictive maintenance and end-of-life planning of multi-metal joints with risk of corrosion under different conditions such as exposure to high temperatures in summer and salt solutions in winter, quantified through its pH. An academia-industry consortium led by the University of Michigan and including Pennsylvania State University, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Georgia, General Motors Company, Livermore Software Technology Corporation, and Optimal Process Technologies, LLC. created multi-scale models for prediction of corrosion in aluminum-steel joint structures such of them used in vehicle subassemblies – chassis and transmission systems. Starting from the first principle calculations, the team developed mathematical and data-driven models to predict the metallic components, which are formed during joining of two metals, for example aluminum and steel - a lightweight multilateral system which is currently used in more than 60% car bodies. These models were used for simulating chemical reactions that are happening when the joining metallic components are exposed to high temperatures and different pH values. The team was able to predict how the corrosion installs on the metallic components and how they lead to a sudden failure of components in cars. Newly developed machine learning algorithms combining Science, Technology, Engineering and Math disciplines, advanced finite element simulation and experimental validations have been integrated in a platform for prediction of the corrosion evolution and prediction the failure of joints under mechanical loadings and fatigue. Moreover, based on machine learning and inverse analysis, the team proposed solutions for designing new metallic alloys less susceptible to corrosion when joining multi-material assembles. An average of 4% error compared with experiments was achieved for the most common joints that are used in vehicle subassemblies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Economic model predictive control of nonlinear process systems using empirical models

Economic model predictive control (EMPC) is a feedback control technique that attempts to tightly integrate economic optimization and feedback control since it is a predictive control scheme that is formulated with an objective function representing the process economics. As its name implies, EMPC requires the availability of a dynamic model to compute its control actions and such a model may be obtained either through application of first principles or through system identification techniques. In industrial practice, it may be difficult in general to obtain an accurate first‐principles model of the process. Motivated by this, in the present work, Lyapunov‐based EMPC (LEMPC) is designed with a linear empirical model that allows for closed‐loop stability guarantees in the context of nonlinear chemical processes. Specifically, when the linear model provides a sufficient degree of accuracy in the region where time varying economically optimal operation is considered, conditions for closed‐loop stability under the LEMPC scheme based on the empirical model are derived. The LEMPC scheme is applied to a chemical process example to demonstrate its closed‐loop stability and performance properties as well as significant computational advantages. © 2014 American Institute of Chemical Engineers AIChE J , 61: 816–830, 2015

Alanqar, Anas↗

NASA NTRS2011

Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

A model evaluation approach is proposed in which weather and climate prediction models are analyzed along a Pacific Ocean cross section, from the stratocumulus regions off the coast of California, across the shallow convection dominated trade winds, to the deep convection regions of the ITCZ the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Cloud System Study/Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (GCSS/ WGNE) Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI). The main goal of GPCI is to evaluate and help understand and improve the representation of tropical and subtropical cloud processes in weather and climate prediction models. In this paper, a detailed analysis of cloud regime transitions along the cross section from the subtropics to the tropics for the season June July August of 1998 is presented. This GPCI study confirms many of the typical weather and climate prediction model problems in the representation of clouds: underestimation of clouds in the stratocumulus regime by most models with the corresponding consequences in terms of shortwave radiation biases; overestimation of clouds by the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) in the deep tropics (in particular) with the corresponding impact in the outgoing longwave radiation; large spread between the different models in terms of cloud cover, liquid water path and shortwave radiation; significant differences between the models in terms of vertical cross sections of cloud properties (in particular), vertical velocity, and relative humidity. An alternative analysis of cloud cover mean statistics is proposed where sharp gradients in cloud cover along the GPCI transect are taken into account. This analysis shows that the negative cloud bias of some models and ERA-40 in the stratocumulus regions [as compared to the first International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)] is associated not only with lower values of cloud cover in these regimes, but also with a stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition that occurs too early along the trade wind Lagrangian trajectory. Histograms of cloud cover along the cross section differ significantly between models. Some models exhibit a quasi-bimodal structure with cloud cover being either very large (close to 100%) or very small, while other models show a more continuous transition. The ISCCP observations suggest that reality is in-between these two extreme examples. These different patterns reflect the diverse nature of the cloud, boundary layer, and convection parameterizations in the participating weather and climate prediction models.

Teixeira, J.↗

DOE OSTI2016

Pitfalls in Prediction Modeling for Normal Tissue Toxicity in Radiation Therapy: An Illustration With the Individual Radiation Sensitivity and Mammary Carcinoma Risk Factor Investigation Cohorts

Purpose: To identify the main causes underlying the failure of prediction models for radiation therapy toxicity to replicate. Methods and Materials: Data were used from two German cohorts, Individual Radiation Sensitivity (ISE) (n=418) and Mammary Carcinoma Risk Factor Investigation (MARIE) (n=409), of breast cancer patients with similar characteristics and radiation therapy treatments. The toxicity endpoint chosen was telangiectasia. The LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) logistic regression method was used to build a predictive model for a dichotomized endpoint (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group/European Organization for the Research and Treatment of Cancer score 0, 1, or ≥2). Internal areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (inAUCs) were calculated by a naïve approach whereby the training data (ISE) were also used for calculating the AUC. Cross-validation was also applied to calculate the AUC within the same cohort, a second type of inAUC. Internal AUCs from cross-validation were calculated within ISE and MARIE separately. Models trained on one dataset (ISE) were applied to a test dataset (MARIE) and AUCs calculated (exAUCs). Results: Internal AUCs from the naïve approach were generally larger than inAUCs from cross-validation owing to overfitting the training data. Internal AUCs from cross-validation were also generally larger than the exAUCs, reflecting heterogeneity in the predictors between cohorts. The best models with largest inAUCs from cross-validation within both cohorts had a number of common predictors: hypertension, normalized total boost, and presence of estrogen receptors. Surprisingly, the effect (coefficient in the prediction model) of hypertension on telangiectasia incidence was positive in ISE and negative in MARIE. Other predictors were also not common between the 2 cohorts, illustrating that overcoming overfitting does not solve the problem of replication failure of prediction models completely. Conclusions: Overfitting and cohort heterogeneity are the 2 main causes of replication failure of prediction models across cohorts. Cross-validation and similar techniques (eg, bootstrapping) cope with overfitting, but the development of validated predictive models for radiation therapy toxicity requires strategies that deal with cohort heterogeneity.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Suppressing simulation bias in multi-modal data using transfer learning

Abstract Many problems in science and engineering require making predictions based on few observations. To build a robust predictive model, these sparse data may need to be augmented with simulated data, especially when the design space is multi-dimensional. Simulations, however, often suffer from an inherent bias. Estimation of this bias may be poorly constrained not only because of data sparsity, but also because traditional predictive models fit only one type of observed outputs, such as scalars or images, instead of all available output data modalities, which might have been acquired and simulated at great cost. To break this limitation and open up the path for multi-modal calibration, we propose to combine a novel, transfer learning technique for suppressing the bias with recent developments in deep learning, which allow building predictive models with multi-modal outputs. First, we train an initial neural network model on simulated data to learn important correlations between different output modalities and between simulation inputs and outputs. Then, the model is partially retrained, or transfer learned, to fit the experiments; a method that has never been implemented in this type of architecture. Using fewer than 10 inertial confinement fusion experiments for training, transfer learning systematically improves the simulation predictions while a simple output calibration, which we design as a baseline, makes the predictions worse. We also offer extensive cross-validation with real and carefully designed synthetic data. The method described in this paper can be applied to a wide range of problems that require transferring knowledge from simulations to the domain of experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1986

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

A methodology is established to predict thermal barrier coating life in a environment similar to that experienced by gas turbine airfoils. Experiments were conducted to determine failure modes of the thermal barrier coating. Analytical studies were employed to derive a life prediction model. A review of experimental and flight service components as well as laboratory post evaluations indicates that the predominant mode of TBC failure involves thermomechanical spallation of the ceramic coating layer. This ceramic spallation involves the formation of a dominant crack in the ceramic coating parallel to and closely adjacent to the topologically complex metal ceramic interface. This mechanical failure mode clearly is influenced by thermal exposure effects as shown in experiments conducted to study thermal pre-exposure and thermal cycle-rate effects. The preliminary life prediction model developed focuses on the two major damage modes identified in the critical experiments tasks. The first of these involves a mechanical driving force, resulting from cyclic strains and stresses caused by thermally induced and externally imposed mechanical loads. The second is an environmental driving force based on experimental results, and is believed to be related to bond coat oxidation. It is also believed that the growth of this oxide scale influences the intensity of the mechanical driving force.

Demasi, J. T.↗

DOE OSTI2020

High-Efficiency Model Predictive Control for Star-Connected Cascaded H-Bridge STATCOM Under Unbalanced Conditions

This paper presents a high-efficiency model predictive control (HMPC), which is enabled by a sorting approach based on dc capacitor voltages to significantly reduce the exponentially-increasing switching states in cascaded Hbridge (CHB) converters. In addition, a generic discrete-time prediction model for star-connected CHB static synchronous compensator is proposed to address the issues due to either grid and/or load unbalances. Both simulation and hardware-in-loop experimental results are presented to validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed HMPC strategy.

Li, Yufei↗

NASA NTRS1988

Thermal barrier coating life prediction model development

This report describes work performed to determine the predominat modes of degradation of a plasma sprayed thermal barrier coating system and to develop and verify life prediction models accounting for these degradation modes. The primary TBC system consisted of a low pressure plasma sprayed NiCrAlY bond coat, an air plasma sprayed ZrO2-Y2O3 top coat, and a Rene' 80 substrate. The work was divided into 3 technical tasks. The primary failure mode to be addressed was loss of the zirconia layer through spalling. Experiments showed that oxidation of the bond coat is a significant contributor to coating failure. It was evident from the test results that the species of oxide scale initially formed on the bond coat plays a role in coating degradation and failure. It was also shown that elevated temperature creep of the bond coat plays a role in coating failure. An empirical model was developed for predicting the test life of specimens with selected coating, specimen, and test condition variations. In the second task, a coating life prediction model was developed based on the data from Task 1 experiments, results from thermomechanical experiments performed as part of Task 2, and finite element analyses of the TBC system during thermal cycles. The third and final task attempted to verify the validity of the model developed in Task 2. This was done by using the model to predict the test lives of several coating variations and specimen geometries, then comparing these predicted lives to experimentally determined test lives. It was found that the model correctly predicts trends, but that additional refinement is needed to accurately predict coating life.

Hillery, R. V.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development and Evaluation of Occupancy-Aware Model Predictive Control for Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

The residential sector accounts for 25% of global primary energy consumption. Two methods have previously been proposed to reduce residential energy use associated with the provision of occupant thermal comfort: 1. Occupancy-based HVAC control, operating systems only during confirmed occupancy, and 2. model predictive control (MPC), harnessing a mathematical model and forecasts to find optimal operating strategies. Previous studies estimate the average energy savings of the two methods individually in the range of 21% and 16%, respectively. The research presented herein was carried out to evaluate the energy savings potential in residential buildings by combining both approaches across different climates, house vintages, and occupancy patterns. Occupancy and eight different physical modalities (e.g. CO2 and VOC) data were collected from five homes for time periods of 4–9 weeks. Collected data sets were used to train occupancy prediction models suggested by an extensive literature survey of occupancy model types. The trained prediction models were combined with MPC and detailed EnergyPlus building simulation models to evaluate residential building performance in terms of annual energy savings and thermal comfort, along with discomfort exceedance metrics. Multiple home types and regions were analyzed to understand regional and climate-dependent potential. Based on actual field data, the occupancy models had a prediction inaccuracy between 8% and 35% across the investigated homes. Average occupancy for the collected data ranged from 56% to 86%, a typical range reported in the literature. Building simulations were conducted for three control scenarios: conventional thermostatic control, occupancy-based, and occupancy-based MPC. The results indicate that all advanced strategies improve upon the conventional control, with some scenarios cutting energy use in half with only occasional incurrence of discomfort. The findings indicate that occupancy-aware model predictive residential building control has the potential to drastically reduce energy use and associated emissions while maintaining occupant comfort for both new and existing buildings.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗