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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2019

Development of a Model for the Small-Particle Orbital Debris Population Based on the STS Impact Record

In preparation for the release of the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 3.1, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) revisited how orbiting debris populations of characteristic sizes smaller than 1 cm were modeled. The primary contributor to the population of sub-centimeter debris particles is the surface deterioration or erosion of spacecraft materials exposed to the outer-space environment. Because small particulates are not directly trackable by remote sensing, the primary means of detection is via historical counts of small impact features on flown radiator and window surfaces of the U.S. Space Transportation System (STS, also known as the Space Shuttle) from 1995-2011. Historic NASA studies of high-velocity impact tests have related impact-feature size to particle mass and velocity for certain STS surfaces, so that a corresponding particle size may be inferred from each small-impact feature observed. Micro-debris populations are then estimated by modeling the path and orientation of an STS mission through a simulated debris environment, and the densities of this simulated environment are rescaled to approximate the number of observed STS impact features. Monte-Carlo methods are further employed to gauge the estimation uncertainty of the rescaled environment. A description of the chosen methodologies for estimating and adjusting the micro-debris population model, and the results, are presented.

Seago, J..↗
NASA NTRS2003

Estimating the Average Diameter of a Population of Spheres from Observed Diameters of Random Two-Dimensional Sections

Size distributions of chondrules, volcanic fire-fountain or impact glass spherules, or of immiscible globules in silicate melts (e.g., in basaltic mesostasis, agglutinitic glass, impact melt sheets) are imperfectly known because the spherical objects are usually so strongly embedded in the bulk samples that they are nearly impossible to separate. Hence, measurements are confined to two-dimensional sections, e.g. polished thin sections that are commonly examined under reflected light optical or backscattered electron microscopy. Three kinds of approaches exist in the geologic literature for estimating the mean real diameter of a population of 3D spheres from 2D observations: (1) a stereological approach with complicated calculations; (2) an empirical approach in which independent 3D size measurements of a population of spheres separated from their parent sample and their 2D cross sectional diameters in thin sections have produced an array of somewhat contested conversion equations; and (3) measuring pairs of 2D diameters of upper and lower surfaces of cross sections each sphere in thin sections using transmitted light microscopy. We describe an entirely probabilistic approach and propose a simple factor of 4/x (approximately equal to 1.27) to convert the 2D mean size to 3D mean size.

Kong, Maiying↗
NASA NTRS1974

Urban and regional land use analysis: CARETS and Census Cities experiment package

The author has identified the following significant results. A number of likely applications and follow-on analyses are suggested by the census cities evaluation of ERTS-1 and Skylab data. Some of these applications are: (1) estimate water use requirements; (2) define urban expansion; (3) document the pattern of residential development and assess quality of residential environment: (4) project future population densities, and estimate changes in population distribution between censuses; (5) assess environmental impact resulting from gradual as well as catastrophic changes.

Alexander, R.↗
NASA NTRS1977

An estimate of field size distributions for selected sites in the major grain producing countries

The field size distributions for the major grain producing countries of the World were estimated. LANDSAT-1 and 2 images were evaluated for two areas each in the United States, People's Republic of China, and the USSR. One scene each was evaluated for France, Canada, and India. Grid sampling was done for representative sub-samples of each image, measuring the long and short axes of each field; area was then calculated. Each of the resulting data sets was computer analyzed for their frequency distributions. Nearly all frequency distributions were highly peaked and skewed (shifted) towards small values, approaching that of either a Poisson or log-normal distribution. The data were normalized by a log transformation, creating a Gaussian distribution which has moments readily interpretable and useful for estimating the total population of fields. Resultant predictors of the field size estimates are discussed.

Podwysocki, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Sensitivity Analysis of Median Lifetime on Radiation Risks Estimates for Cancer and Circulatory Disease amongst Never-Smokers

Radiation risks are estimated in a competing risk formalism where age or time after exposure estimates of increased risks for cancer and circulatory diseases are folded with a probability to survive to a given age. The survival function, also called the life-table, changes with calendar year, gender, smoking status and other demographic variables. An outstanding problem in risk estimation is the method of risk transfer between exposed populations and a second population where risks are to be estimated. Approaches used to transfer risks are based on: 1) Multiplicative risk transfer models -proportional to background disease rates. 2) Additive risk transfer model -risks independent of background rates. In addition, a Mixture model is often considered where the multiplicative and additive transfer assumptions are given weighted contributions. We studied the influence of the survival probability on the risk of exposure induced cancer and circulatory disease morbidity and mortality in the Multiplicative transfer model and the Mixture model. Risks for never-smokers (NS) compared to the average U.S. population are estimated to be reduced between 30% and 60% dependent on model assumptions. Lung cancer is the major contributor to the reduction for NS, with additional contributions from circulatory diseases and cancers of the stomach, liver, bladder, oral cavity, esophagus, colon, a portion of the solid cancer remainder, and leukemia. Greater improvements in risk estimates for NS s are possible, and would be dependent on improved understanding of risk transfer models, and elucidating the role of space radiation on the various stages of disease formation (e.g. initiation, promotion, and progression).

Chappell, Lori J.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Bio-medical electrical disconnects

Improvements in medical care during the last two decades have resulted in the survival of an ever-increasing group of patients with severe neuro-muscular disabilities who otherwise would have succumbed to their diseases or injuries. This has created a sizeable population of severely paralyzed persons totally dependent upon society for care. It has been estimated that this population may grow beyond 5,000,000 persons by 1980. A rather fortunate confluence of complementing technologies and surgical techniques offer promise of solving this growing socially significant problem.

Parsons, W. E.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The planet crossing asteroid survey: Progress in the analysis of populations and terrestrial-planet cratering rates

The Planet-Crossing Asteroid Survey (PCAS) is making steady progress toward the accumulation of the data required to make improved estimates of the populations and cratering rates which can be compared with the existing record of impact events. The PCAS is the chief source of new objects on which to base these calculations over the past decade, and is an integral part of the continuing refinement of the estimates used in planetological applications. An adjunct effort to determine albedo statistics from photometry of UCAS plates is being pursued as well, to better define the magnitude frequency distributions of asteroids. This will improve the quality of the population and collision probability calculations. The survey effort continues to discover new asteroids whose orbital characteristics may reveal the origin and evolution mechanisms reponsible for the transport of the planet-crossing asteroids to the inner solar system.

Helin, E. F.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Synchrotron radiation from Neptune - Neptune's magnetic field and electron population

On the basis of radio measurements of Neptune at 20 cm, one can infer the presence of about 0.4 mJy synchrotron radiation. By assuming a dipole-like magnetic field, with the energetic electrons confined to the magnetic equator, Neptune's magnetic dipole moment is estimated. Its electron population should be between that in Uranus' and Jupiter's magnetospheres. If the electrons are injected by the solar wind, local acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are required to energize the particles, because adiabatic diffusion alone is not sufficient.

De Pater, Imke↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Population Study of Wide-Separation Brown Dwarf Companions to Main Sequence Stars

Increased interest in infrared astronomy has opened the frontier to study cooler objects that shed significant light on the formation of planetary systems. Brown dwarf research provides a wealth of information useful for sorting through a myriad of proposed formation theories. Our study combines observational data from 2MASS with rigorous computer simulations to estimate the true population of long-range (greater than 1000 AU) brown dwarf companions in the solar neighborhood (less than 25 pc from Earth). Expanding on Gizis et al. (2001), we have found the margin of error in previous estimates to be significantly underestimated after we included orbit eccentricity, longitude of pericenter, angle of inclination, field star density, and primary and secondary luminosities as parameters influencing the companion systems in observational studies. We apply our simulation results to current L- and T-dwarf catalogs to provide updated estimates on the frequency of wide-separation brown dwarf companions to main sequence stars.

Smith, Jeffrey J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The ridged plains as a possible landing site for the Mars sample return mission

Differences in the shape and density of crater size-frequency distribution curves have been interpreted as indicators of different impactor populations. Within the inner solar system two production populations are seen. The signature of the first is recorded in the heavily cratered regions of the Moon, Mercury, and Mars and displays a multi-sloped distribution curve which cannot be described by a power law function at all crater diameters. The signature of the second population is seen in the lightly cratered lunar and Martian plains, where the size-frequency distribution curve can be approximated by a power law function of -3 differential slope in the 8- to 70-km diameter range. Based on data obtained from the Apollo lunar samples and crater flux estimates, the first population is believed to have been emplaced during the period of heavy bombardment which, at least on the Moon, ended about 3.8 BY ago. The second population has dominated the cratering record since that time and is commonly assumed to be due to comets and asteroids.

Barlow, Nadine G.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The Oort cloud in transition

The evolution of theoretical and empirical models of the Oort cloud (OC) since it was first proposed by Oort in 1950 is traced, and the main features of current models are discussed, in a general review. Consideration is given to work on the classical OC (Monte Carlo simulations of OC evolution, population and mass estimates, and OC perturbation by passing stars and giant molecular clouds), models of a massive inner OC (simulations of planetesimal-swarm evolution in the Uranus-Neptune zone and IRAS observations of circumstellar dust shells), evidence for random and/or periodic comet showers, and the possible role of the Galactic missing mass. The current OC model comprises an almost spherical outer (10,000-100,000-AU) cloud of mass 7-8 earth mass and population (1.4-2.3) x 10 to the 12th, and a flat disklike inner (40-10,000 AU) cloud of mass 100-200 earth mass and population (1-10) x 10 to the 13th.

Weissman, P. R.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Masses and Luminosities of X-Ray Binaries

Using SIM, we will perform narrow-angle observations of several X-ray binaries to determine their orbits, and we will observe about 50 X-ray binary systems in wide-angle mode to measure their distances and proper motions. Sources with mass estimates for the compact component of greater than 3 solar masses are generally called black hole candidates since this mass is above the theoretical neutron star limit. Narrow-angle observations of these sources provide a direct test of the dynamical mass estimates on which the black hole evidence is based. Better measurements of the black hole masses will provide constraints on possible evolutionary paths that lead to black hole formation. When combined with X-ray data, mass measurements may provide additional constraints on the black hole spin. Precise mass determinations of neutron star systems can address the question of whether neutron stars can be significantly more massive than 1.4 solar masses, which would eliminate soft models of the neutron star equations of state. The wide-angle observations will probe the Galactic distribution of X-ray binaries through parallaxes and proper motions. They will also eliminate the uncertainties in the luminosities of individual sources, which is currently up to a full order of magnitude. This will enable more detailed comparisons of X-ray observations to physical models such as advection-dominated accretion flows (ADAFs). We intend to carry out the following measurements: 1) Determine the orbits of two black hole candidates to measure the black hole masses; 2) Obtain precise mass measurements for two neutron star systems to constrain neutron star equations of state; 3) Determine the distances and thus luminosities of selected representatives of various classes of X-ray binaries (black hole candidates, neutron stars, jet sources); 4) In the process of distance determination, proper motions will also be measured, from which the age of the population can be estimated.

Quirrenbach, Andreas↗
NASA NTRS1978

Use of LANDSAT data to assess waterfowl habitat quality

The author has identified the following significant results. The capability of mapping ponds over a very large area was demonstrated, with multidate, multiframe LANDSAT imagery. A small double sample of aircraft data made it possible to adjust a LANDSAT large area census. Terrain classification was improved by using multitemporal LANDSAT data. Waterfowl production was estimated, using remotely determined pond data, in conjunction with FWS estimates of breeding population. Relative waterfowl habitat quality was characterized on a section by section basis.

Colwell, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Planetary astronomy P. I. research summary

A systematic survey for near-Earth and planet-crossing asteriods is being conducted with the 0.46 m Schmidt at Palomar to increase the number of known asteroids and establish improved estimates of their populations and size distribution. Access to a limited number of PSS11 plates from the 1.2 m Schmidt are used also to search for unusual objects. Field pairs from the 0.46 m are photographed and inspected with a stereomicroscope; new objects are detected and followed to establich definitive orbits. When near-Earth asteroids are discovered, other astronomers are informed so that physical observations can be obtained. With remote sensing results, possible generic relationships are suggested. Population refinements can be accomplished by increasing the number of known asteroids under well-established conditions of search. From 13 observing runs made at Palomar, 215 new asteroids were discovered and reported with good orbits determined for 90. Significant discoveries are Apollo 1988 EG, Amor 1987 QB, and an unusual high inclination asteroid, 1988 EO. Other discoveries of importance include 12 Mars-crossers, 6 Hungaries, and 13 Phocaeas. The discovery of short-period comet Helin, 1988w, which makes a close approach to Saturn, is also notable.

Helin, Eleanor F.↗
NASA NTRS1996

From Individuals to Epidemics

Heterogeneous mixing fundamentally changes the dynamics of infectious diseases; finding ways to incorporate it into models represents a critical challenge. Phenomenological approaches are deficient in their lack of attention to underlying processes; individual-based models, on the other hand, may obscure the essential interactions in a sea of detail. The challenge then is to find ways to bridge these levels of description, starting from individual-based models and deriving macroscopic descriptions from them that retain essential detail, and filter out the rest. In this paper, attempts to achieve this transformation are described for a class of models where non-random mixing arises from the spatial localization of interactions. In general, the epidemic threshold is found to be larger owing to spatial localization than for a homogeneous mixing population. An improved estimate of the dynamics is developed by the use of moment equations, and a simple estimate of the threshold in terms of a 'dyad heuristic'. For more general models in which local infection is not described by mass action, the connection with related partial differential equations is investigated.

Levin, Simon A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Consolidating the Cygnus Region 1.809 MeV Emission

The analysis of additional Cygnus observations together with a further improved background model resulted in an update of the 1.809 MeV allsky map. Along with improvements of the data, the Cygnus region has been studied in greater detail and compared to a model of non-stationary nucleosynthesis following the evolution of young OB associations. This model has been vastly extended to include additional observables such as dynamics of the interstellar medium (ISM), following the evolution of superbubbles, and the emission of ionizing ultraviolet light. The rich OB associations Cygnus OB 1 and OB 2 could indeed account for a large fraction of the 'Cygnus West' emission. Emission from 'Cygnus East' however, cannot easily be modelled by the sparse Cygnus OB 7 association. This led to a study on the impact of a newly proposed Al-26 source, massive close binaries. It is found that a very significant Al-26 contribution from massive close binaries would be needed to account for the observed emission in Cygnus East, which would single out this region from other observations. It appears more likely that deeper observations (e.g., in the near infrared) are needed to get a better estimate on the population of massive stars in Cygnus East.

Oberlack, Uwe↗
NASA NTRS2000

Updating the NASA LEO Orbital Debris Environment Model with Recent Radar and Optical Observations and in Situ Measurements

The Low Earth Orbit (LEO, between 200 and 2000 km altitudes) debris environment has been constantly measured by NASA Johnson Space Center's Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) since 1996 (Africano et al. 1999, NASA JSC-28826) and by Haystack and Haystack Auxiliary radars at MIT Lincoln Laboratory since 1990 (Settecerri et al. 1999, NASA JSC-28744). Debris particles as small as 3 mm can be detected by the radars and as small as 3 cm can be measured by LMT. Objects about 10 cm in diameter and greater are tracked and catalogued by the US Space Surveillance Network. Much smaller (down to several micrometers) natural and debris particle populations can be estimated based on in situ measurements, such as Long Duration Exposure Facility, and based on analyses of returned surfaces, such as Hubble Space Telescope solar arrays, European Retrievable Carrier, and Space Shuttles. To increase our understanding of the current LEO debris environment, the Orbital Debris Program Office at NASA JSC has initiated an effort to improve and update the ORDEM96 model (Kessler et al. 1996, NASA TM-104825) utilizing the recently available data. This paper gives an overview of the new NASA orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000.

Liou, J.-C.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Erosion of Volatiles by Micro-Meteoroid Bombardment on Ceres, and Comparison to the Moon and Mercury

Ceres, the largest reservoir of water in the main-belt, was recently visited by the Dawn spacecraft that revealed several areas bearing H2O-ice features. Independent telescopic observations showed a water exosphere of currently unknown origin. We explore the effects of meteoroid impacts on Ceres considering the topography obtained from the Dawn mission using a (Replaced: full-fledged replaced with: widely-used) micro-meteoroid model and ray-tracing techniques. Meteoroid populations with 0.01-2 mm diameters are considered. We analyze the short-term effects Ceres experiences during its current orbit as well as long-term effects over the entire precession cycle. We find the entire surface is subject to meteoroid bombardment leaving no areas in permanent shadow with respect to meteoroid influx. The equatorial parts of Ceres produce 80% more ejecta than the polar regions due to the large impact velocity of long-period comets. Mass flux, energy flux, and ejecta production vary seasonally by a factor of (Replaced: a few replaced with: 3–7) due to the inclined eccentric orbit. Compared to Mercury and the Moon, Ceres experiences significantly smaller effects of micro-meteoroid bombardment, with a total mass flux of 4.5±1.2×10(exp −17)kg m(exp −2)s(exp −1). On average Mercury is subjected to a 50× larger mass flux and generates 700× more ejecta than Ceres, while the lunar mass flux is 10× larger, and the ejecta generation is 30× larger than on Ceres. For these reasons, we find that meteoroid impacts are an unlikely candidate for the production of a water exosphere or significant excavation of surface features. The surface turnover rate from the micro-meteoroid populations considered is estimated to be 1.25 Myr on Ceres.

minor planets↗