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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Group/Party Affiliation Using Social Networks and Agent-Based Modeling

The dynamics of group affiliation and group dispersion is a concept that is most often studied in order for political candidates to better understand the most efficient way to conduct their campaigns. While political campaigning in the United States is a very hot topic that most politicians analyze and study, the concept of group/party affiliation presents its own area of study that producers very interesting results. One tool for examining party affiliation on a large scale is agent-based modeling (ABM), a paradigm in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field perfectly suited for aggregating individual behaviors to observe large swaths of a population. For this study agent based modeling was used in order to look at a community of agents and determine what factors can affect the group/party affiliation patterns that are present. In the agent-based model that was used for this experiment many factors were present but two main factors were used to determine the results. The results of this study show that it is possible to use agent-based modeling to explore group/party affiliation and construct a model that can mimic real world events. More importantly, the model in the study allows for the results found in a smaller community to be translated into larger experiments to determine if the results will remain present on a much larger scale.

Campbell, Kenyth↗
NASA NTRS2005

Strategic Options for International Participation in Space Exploration: Lessons from U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation

The President's Commission on Implementation of United States Space Exploration Policy suggests that after NASA establishes the Space Exploration vision architecture, it should pursue international partnerships. Two possible approaches were suggested: multiple independently operated missions and an integrated mission with carefully selected international components. The U.S.-Japan defense sectors have learned key lessons from experience with both of these approaches. U.S.-Japan defense cooperation has evolved over forty years from simple military assistance programs to more complex joint development efforts. With the evolution of the political-military alliance and the complexity of defense programs, these cooperative efforts have engaged increasingly industrial resources and capabilities as well as more sophisticated forms of planning, technology transfers and program management. Some periods of this evolution have been marked by significant frictions. The U.S.Japan FS-X program, for example, provides a poor example for management of international cooperation. In November 1988, the United States and Japan signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to co-develop an aircraft, named FS-X and later renamed F -2, as a replacement to the aging Japan support fighter F-l. The program was marked by numerous political disputes. After over a decade of joint development and testing, F -2 production deliveries finally began in 1999. The production run was curtailed due to much higher than anticipated costs and less than desired aircraft performance. One universally agreed "lesson" from the FSX/F-2 case was that it did not represent the ideal approach to bilateral cooperation. More recent cooperative programs have involved targeted joint research and development, including component development for ballistic missile defense systems. These programs could lay the basis for more ambitious cooperative efforts. This study examines both less-than-stellar international cooperation efforts as well as more successful initiatives to identify lessons from military programs that can help NASA encourage global investment in its Space Exploration Vision. The paper establishes a basis for examining related policy and industrial concerns such as effective utilization of dual-use technologies and trans-Pacific program management of large, complex cooperative programs.

Hudiburg, John J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Dorothy Jorgensen - Co-Op Tour Summary

NASA is a household name in this day and age, known commonly as America's government-run powerhouse of innovation and space exploration. It is a common dream for students to be a part of NASA's workforce, but I did not realize that it was my dream until I found that I could not imagine working anywhere else. From August to December, I had the privilege of a co-op tour with NASA at the Johnson Space Center. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) first formed in the early hysteria of the Cold War, and in its early days it received enormous funding and political support. It was America's response to the Russian Sputnik, which was a not only a stark symbol of what was suddenly possible, but also of how far behind the United States had fallen in the race for technology. The political atmosphere in the world has since changed, but NASA's drive to push the boundaries of the impossible has not faded: NASA's primary mission has been exploration for the betterment of mankind, and it works towards that mission to this day. The specific NASA site that I worked in was by a coast near Houston, TX, at the Johnson Space Center (Figure 1). I was led on my first day of work to a building dedicated to Structural Engineering (Building 13), which was where I would be spending most of my time in the months to come. It was here that I had my desk and cubicle, and would later do the bulk of my computer modeling and theoretical planning. Later that day we traveled to the Vibrations and Acoustics Test Facility (Building 49), and here I was shown the parts we would use for our technical project and the locations we would work in. I worked in the Loads and Dynamics Branch of the Structural Engineering Division, in the Engineering Directorate.

Jorgensen, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Missing Economic Risks in Assessments of Climate Change Impacts

Economic assessments of the potential future risks of climate change have been omitting or grossly underestimating many of the most serious consequences for lives and livelihoods because these risks are difficult to quantify precisely and lie outside of human experience. Political and business leaders need to understand the scale of these ‘missing risks’ because they could have drastic and potentially catastrophic impacts on citizens, communities and companies. Scientists are growing in confidence about the evidence for the largest potential impacts of climate change and the rising probability that major thresholds in the Earth’s climate system will be breached as global mean surface temperature rises, particularly if warming exceeds 2°C above the pre-industrial level. These impacts include: (1) Destabilisation of ice sheets and glaciers and consequent sea level rise. (2) Stronger tropical cyclones. (3) Extreme heat impacts. (4) More frequent and intense floods and droughts. (5) Disruptions to oceanic and atmospheric circulation. (6) Destruction of biodiversity and collapse of ecosystems. Many of these impacts will grow and occur concurrently across the world as global temperature climbs. Some of these impacts involve thresholds in the climate system beyond which major impacts accelerate, or become irreversible and unstoppable. When a threshold is breached, it might cause one or more other thresholds to be exceeded as well, leading to a cascade of impacts. Many of these impacts could exceed the capacity of human populations to adapt, and would significantly affect and disrupt the lives and livelihoods of hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people worldwide. These impacts would also undermine economic growth and development, exacerbate poverty and destabilise communities. Economic assessments fail to take account of the potential for large concurrent impacts across the world that would cause mass migration, displacement and conflict, with huge loss of life. Economic assessments that are expressed solely in terms of effects on output (e.g. gross domestic product), or that only extrapolate from past experience, or that use inappropriate discounting, do not provide a clear indication of the potential risks to lives and livelihoods. It is likely that there are additional risks that we are not yet anticipating simply because scientists have not yet detected their possibility, as we have entered a period of climate change that is unprecedented in human history. Some advances are being made in improving economic assessments of climate change impacts but much more progress is required if assessments are to offer reliable guidance for political and business leaders on the biggest risks. The lack of firm quantifications is not a reason to ignore these risks, and when the missing risks are taken into account, the case for strong and urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions becomes even more compelling.

DeFries, Ruth↗
NASA NTRS2020

Monitoring River Basin Development and Variation in Water Resources in Transboundary Imjin River in North and South Korea Using Remote Sensing

This paper presents methods of monitoring river basin development and water variability for the transboundary river in North and South Korea. River basin development, such as dams and water infrastructure in transboundary rivers, can be a potential factor of tensions between upstream and downstream countries since dams constructed upstream can adversely affect downstream riparians. However, because most of the information related to North Korea has been limited to the public, the information about dams constructed and their locations were inaccurate in many previous studies. In addition, water resources in transboundary rivers can be exploited as a political tool. Specifically, due to the unexpected water release from the Hwanggang Dam, upstream of the transboundary Imjin River in North and South Korea, six South Koreans died on 6 September 2009. The Imjin River can be used as a political tool by North Korea, and seven events were reported as water conflicts in the Imjin River from 2001 to 2016. In this paper, firstly, we have updated the information about the dams constructed over the Imjin River in North Korea using multi-temporal images with a high spatial resolution (15-30 cm) obtained from Google Earth. Secondly, we analyzed inter- and intra-water variability over the Hwanggang Reservoir using open-source images obtained from the Global Surface Water Explorer. We found a considerable change in water surface variability before and after 2008, which might result from the construction of the Hwanggang Dam. Thirdly, in order to further investigate intra-annual water variability, we present a method monitoring water storage changes of the Hwanggang Reservoir using the area-elevation curve (AEC), which was derived from multi-sensor Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images (Sentinel-1A and -1B) and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM). Since many previous studies for estimating water storage change have depended on satellite altimetry dataset and optical images for deriving AEC, the method adopted in this study is the only application for such inaccessible areas since no altimetry ground track exists for the Hwanggang Reservoir and because clouds can block the study area for wet seasons. Moreover, this study has newly proven that unexpected water release can occur in dry seasons because the water storage in the Hwanggang Reservoir can be high enough to conduct a release that can be used as a geopolitical tool. Using our method, potential risks can be mitigated, not in response to a water release, but based on pre-event water storage changes in the Hwanggang Reservoir.

Kim, Donghwan↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Relationship Between Social Factors and Government Survey Nonresponse

In a previous study, we explored the relationship between economic and political factors and survey refusal, and noted the importance to collect or otherwise obtain measures that will help us understand more about the social aspect of the social-political-economic construct of survey nonresponse. Recently, we had the opportunity to collect such measures as part of the Census Tracking Survey. The Tracking Survey was launched in September 2019 and concluded in June 2020. It was a national survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau that tracked public awareness of the 2020 Census. Participants were asked about a variety of questions, including questions about social engagement and empathy, both possible measures of one’s social environment and hence one’s attitude towards participating in a government survey. To our knowledge, empathy has not been considered as factor of survey nonresponse. We propose that social factors such as these play an important role in the decision to participate in a survey. Using the Tracking Survey data, we built a logistic regression model, with plan to participate/participated in the 2020 Census as the dependent variable, and known and suspected factors of survey participation as independent variables. We found that social engagement and empathy were both important factors of participating in the Census.

Luke J. Larsen↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comprehensive Analysis of Thirty Years of Land Change in Georgia: Forest Degradation, Land-Use Patterns, and Drivers

In this talk, we present results from a study, funded by the NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change program, of thirty years of environmental change in the country of Georgia. The country, a former Soviet Union Republic, has experienced more political, economic and social change in the last 30 years than most countries. But the environmental implications of these extreme events remain largely unknown – the region is understudied, no national forest inventory has been completed in 20 years, and previous research in the area conducted by the authors were not successful. The latter statement is because of forest degradation. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, much of the forestry infrastructure broke down and people resorted to chopping down individual trees. The result was in many parts of the country a reduction in forest biomass but not to the point of a change in land cover. This type of forest degradation, which was either gradual over decades or abrupt, could not be readily identified using the methods and data at our disposal at the time. In the recent study, we had full access to the Landsat archive in combination with computing power. By using monitoring methods that are based on time series analysis, we were able to capture and identify the gradual processes driven by small scale activities that are so characteristic of the post-Soviet Georgian landscape. We developed an approach (“CCDC-SMA”) that combines time series analysis and spectral mixture analysis running on Google Earth Engine for monitoring abrupt and gradual forest degradation. By using this approach, we found that forest degradation was significantly larger than the area estimate of deforestation; 3,541 ± 556 km2 (11% of the forest area in 1987) compared to 158 ± 98 km2 from 1987 to 2020. The prevailing narrative is that legal and illegal cutting of trees for fuelwood is primarily responsible for this process. Yet, since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the country has undergone rapid socioeconomic and institutional changes which have not been explored as drivers of forest change. To further our understanding of the underlying causes, we combined forest disturbance estimates, Georgian statistical data, and historical institutional change data to examine socioeconomic drivers of forest degradation. We found that higher winter temperature and drought were associated with higher degradation at the regional scale, while major institutional changes and drought were associated with higher forest degradation at the national level. Access to natural gas, the major energy alternative to fuelwood, had no significant association with degradation. Our results challenge the narrative that poverty and a lack of alternative energy infrastructure drive forest degradation and suggest that government policies banning household fuelwood cutting, including the new Forest Code of 2020, may not reduce forest degradation. Given these results, improved data on wood harvesting and more research on the commercial drivers of degradation and their links to economic and political reforms is needed to better inform forest policy in the region, especially given ongoing risks from climate change.

Pontus Olofsson↗
NASA NTRS1996

Pointing and Scanning Control of Optical Instruments using Rotating Unbalanced Masses

Correct pointing direction and scanning motions are essential in the operation of many flight payloads, such as balloon-borne telescopes and space-based X- ray and gamma-ray telescopes. Rotating unbalanced mass (RUM) devices have been recently proposed, implemented and successfully tested to produce a variety of scanning motions. Linear scans, raster scans, and circular scans have been successfully generated on a gimbaled payload using pairs of RUM devices. Theoretical analysis, computer simulations, and experiments have also been used to study the feasibility of using RUM devices to control instrument pointing direction, in addition to generating scanning motion. Dynamic modeling of a gimbaled payload equipped with a pair of RUM devices has been studied, and preliminary testing indicates that the pointing control is indeed feasible. However, there is also great potential for significant performance improvements through more advanced control system analysis, modeling and design. In this paper, modeling and control methods are described to achieve simultaneous scanning and pointing control of a gimbaled payload using rotating unbalance mass (RUM) devices. The model development work builds upon the results of Polites et al. and also some modeling approaches from robotics research. Results of some preliminary experiments are discussed and some nonlinear control methods will be proposed.

Bishop, Carlee A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Hidden Dimensions of Architecture and Engineering Design

The art of going from a notional vision of a system to a fully realizable design is called “architecting.” For an architecture to be realizable over its lifetime, it has to conform to many demands. Not only does it need to conform to the vision and its ultimate purpose, it needs to adhere to a world of requirements: affordability, reliability, legality, operability, simplicity, analyzability, testability, understandability, accessibility, manufacturability, and repairability, among many others. Ultimately, the architectures that “hang together” in many or all of these dimensions evoke a sense of elegance and beauty. Please join us as Frank Gehry and JPLers Rob Manning and Raul Polit-Casillas discuss examples of design and architecture, and the importance of a well-thought-out design.

Gehry, Frank O.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Systemic Risk

Systemic risk is the name given to impacts that spread within and across systems and sectors (e.g. ecosystems, health, infrastructure and the food sector) via the movements of people, goods, capital and information within and across boundaries (e.g. regions, countries and continents). The spread of these impacts can lead to potentially existential consequences and system collapse across a range of time horizons. Globalization contributes to systemic risk affecting people worldwide. The impacts of climate change or COVID-19 show how the challenges of addressing systemic risk go beyond conventional risk management and governance. Critical system interdependencies, amplified by underlying vulnerabilities, highlight that there is a growing need to better understand cascading impacts, systemic risks and the possible political (governance) and societal responses. This includes improving our understanding of the root causes of systemic risk, both biophysical and socio-economic, and related information needs. Addressing contemporary challenges in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals.

systemic risk↗
NASA NTRS1962

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION IN SPACE

In the community of nations there exists today a deep and wide abyss separating one important and powerful group of nations from another. The political and philosophical differences which constitute this abyss are very real and very fundamental, and they are not likely to disappear during this century. There are smaller canyons in the landscape as well, some more permanent than others. However, it is possible to build bridges of culture, science, and cooperative effort of many kinds across these canyons so that men of good will from one side may mingle freely with those from the other side, and for a little while, at least, be as one people. Scientists have been helping to build bridges like this for a long time. Especially prominent in this sort of activity has been the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) which was the mother hen, so to speak, of the International Geophysical Year. At present, problems of international cooperation in space research are the concern of a Special Committee of the International Council of Scientific Unions, known as COSPAR (Committee on Space Research).

SPACE EXPLORATION↗