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DOE OSTI2024

Sentiment analysis of the United States public support of nuclear power on social media using large language models

This study utilized large language models (LLMs) to analyze public sentiment in the United States (US) regarding nuclear power on social media, focusing on X/Twitter, considering climate change challenges and advancements in nuclear power technology. Approximately, 1.26 million nuclear tweets from 2008–2023 were examined to fine-tune LLMs for sentiment classification. We found the crucial role of accurate data labeling for model performance, with potential implications for a 15% improvement, achieved through high-confidence labels. LLMs demonstrated better performance compared to traditional machine learning classifiers, with reduced susceptibility to overfitting and up to 96% classification accuracy. LLMs are used to segment the US public tweets into policy and energy-related categories, revealing that 68% are politically themed. Policy tweets tended to convey negative sentiment, often reflecting opposing political perspectives and focusing on nuclear deals and international relations. Energy-related tweets covered diverse topics with predominantly neutral to positive sentiment, indicating broad support for nuclear power in 48 out of 50 US states. The US public positive sentiments toward nuclear power stemmed from its high power density, reliability regardless of weather conditions, environmental benefits, application versatility, and recent innovations and advancements in both fission and fusion technologies. Negative sentiments primarily focused on waste management, high capital costs, and safety concerns. The neutral campaign highlighted global nuclear facts and advancements, with varying tones leaning towards positivity or negativity. An interesting neutral theme was the advocacy for the combined use of renewable and nuclear energy to attain net-zero goals.

Energy & Fuels↗
DOE OSTI2021

Defending Weapons Inspections from the Effects of Disinformation

The intentional spread of disinformation is not a new challenge for the scientific world. We have seen it perpetuate the idea of a flat earth, convince communities that vaccines are more dangerous than helpful, and even suggest a connection between the “5G” communication infrastructure and COVID-19. Nor is disinformation a new phenomenon in the weapons inspection arena. Weapons inspectors themselves are often forced to sift through alternative narratives of events and inconsistent reporting, and they regularly see their credibility and conclusions questioned in the face of government politics or public biases. But certain recent disinformation campaigns have become so overwhelmingly comprehensive and effective that they constitute a new kind of threat. By preventing accountability for clear violations of international law, these campaigns have created a challenge to the survival of arms control treaties themselves. If weapons inspectors cannot regain the trust of the international community in the face of this challenge, it will be increasingly difficult to ensure compliance with arms control and disarmament treaties going forward. In this essay, I will briefly discuss one of the most comprehensive disinformation efforts of the past decade: the disinformation campaign used to prevent accountability for Syria's repeated use of chemical weapons. After this discussion, I will propose one possible approach to help protect the credibility of disarmament experts and weapons inspectors in the face of pervasive disinformation. This approach will require a concerted effort to connect and support compliance experts and to understand and explain their expertise across cultural, political, national, economic, and religious divides.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical Issues in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Ratification Debate: A 20 Year Retrospective

Two decades after the U.S. Senate declined in 1999 to give its consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty remains in legal and political limbo. Legally, the treaty cannot enter into force without U.S. ratification. However, the Senate’s rejection does not strip the treaty of its force as an element of customary international law or alter the will of other signatories to see it enter into force. Politically, the debate over the virtues and flaws of the treaty remains as strong as ever, with some CTBT advocates pushing energetically for U.S. re-review while some opponents seek ways to “un-sign” the treaty. Meanwhile, despite the Senate’s rejection of the treaty, the United States acts in a manner consistent with its main obligations by maintaining a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing and providing financial support (as well as technical expertise) to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO)—in particular the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS). The CTBT may well remain in such limbo for a long time to come, unless some catalytic event comes along to re-shape national perceptions and priorities, one way or the other. The treaty’s future, whatever it might be, will be determined in part by how much perspectives might have changed in light of interim developments. Our purpose is to shed light on some of those developments and to assess their relevance. The 1999 ratification debate addressed a large number of issues. Rejection was driven by various policy and technical judgments. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine those technical judgments in light of what has been learned over the following two decades. On some technical matters, there was explicit recognition of extant uncertainties, as well as a conviction and hope that time would dispel them. To be doubly clear, our purpose is not to recommend a way forward on CTBT ratification. The policy judgments of 1999 and 2020 are beyond the scope of this paper. This technical re-examination proceeds as follows. It begins with a short background section to introduce the key technical matters in discussion in the U.S. ratification process. Then it moves systematically through each of those topics with a review of relevant background information, a discussion of key points in debate, an analysis of subsequent experience, and a current assessment. The historical analysis draws on many sources including the primary documents of the Congressional debate, the official article-by-article interpretation by the Department of State, and the statements of key players in the process. We also relied on key technical reports and publications by subject matter experts that have addressed in more detail many of the issues in our focus. These sources include the 2002 and 2012 reports of the National Academy of Sciences as well as publications by senior technical staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) who were actively involved in the ratification debate, including then-Laboratory Director Bruce Tarter. We also conducted several interviews with government officials from the 1990s, past laboratory directors, and other members of the scientific community. But, except where individuals are specifically cited by name, the judgments offered here are our own and should not be attributed to any other individual or to LLNL as such.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear Weapons and the Atmospheric Test Era

The era of atmospheric testing defies a simple description. Beginning with the goal of proving fission, the United States’ test program grew in complexity as scientists explored thermonuclear reactions, met the military demand for a variety of weapons for an increasing number of delivery platforms, and reacted to the ever-growing public fear of fallout. And, of course, political considerations were always present, first in the prosecution of World War II and later in the Cold War. To understand the atmospheric test program, then, is to understand how science, politics, and the public shaped our society in ways that are still difficult to fully understand.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2026

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coexistence Praxis: The Role of Resource Managers in Wolf-Livestock Interactions on Federal Lands

In resource management, new terms are frequently introduced, reflecting ongoing evolution in the theory and practice of ecology and governance. Yet understandings of what new concepts mean, for whom, and what they imply for management on the ground can vary widely. Coexistence—a prominent concept within the literature and practices around human-wildlife conflict and predator management—is one such term: widely invoked and yet poorly defined. While for some coexistence is the latest paradigm in improving human-wildlife relations, the concept remains debated and indeed even hotly contested by others—particularly on the multiple-use public lands of the American West, where gray wolf conservation, livestock production, and the claims of diverse stakeholders share space. The multiple meanings of coexistence present serious challenges for conservation practice, as what the concept implies or requires can be contested by those most central to its implementation. In this study we examine wolf-livestock management—a classic case of human-wildlife conflict—by focusing on the experiences and perspectives of U.S. Forest Service (USFS) managers. We reviewed coexistence's multivalence in the literature, complementing semi-structured interviews conducted with USFS employees on case study forests from across the western states. Through this, we highlight the complexity and multi-dimensionality of the concept, and the unique yet under-explored perspective that resource managers bring to these debates. This work draws on insights from political ecology to emphasize the situatedness of manager practice—taking place within a broader set of relations and contextual pressures—while extending political ecologists' traditional focus on the resource user to a concern with the resource manager as a key actor in environmental conflicts. Through our engagement with the experiences and perceptions of USFS managers, who must balance conservation aims with long-established land uses like livestock grazing, we hope to clarify the various dimensions of coexistence. Our hope is that this work thus increases the possibility for empathy and collaboration among managers and stakeholders engaged in this complex socio-ecological challenge.

Martin, Jeff Vance↗
NASA NTRS1972

Technology, the evolution of the transnational corporation, and the nation-state: A speculative essay

This study deals with two exceedingly complex matters; first, the causal connection between technology and the rise of giant transnational or multinational corporations, and second, the impact that development is having on the political order called the nation-state. It is concluded that the multinational enterprise and the nation-state are the major participants in the planetary order; that the enterprise has a political role and the state has an economic role; and that they are conjoined ever increasingly into a system of global corporativism.

Miller, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Law's interface with expanding technology

The interaction of technology assessments with the process of political decisionmaking is discussed. Reasons are suggested as to why those engaged in the assessment function should not be optimistic of the impacts of assessment outcomes on political decisionmaking.

Green, H. P.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Technical assistance and the transfer of remote sensing technology

The transfer of technology from industrialized countries to the third world is a very complicated process and one that requires a great deal of research and development. The political and social obstacles to this transfer are generally greater than the technical obstacles, but technical assistance programs have neither the competence nor the inclination to deal with these factors adequately. Funding for technical assistance in remote sensing is now expanding rapidly, and there is a growing need for institutions to study and promote the effective use of this technology for economic development. The United Nations, the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, the United States Agency for International Development and the Canadian technical assistance agencies take different approaches to the problem and deal with the political pressures in different ways.

Chipman, R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Space manufacturing III; Proceedings of the Fourth Conference, Princeton University, Princeton, N.J., May 14-17, 1979

Papers are presented on the various technological, political, economic, environmental and social aspects of large manufacturing facilities in space. Specific topics include the potential global market for satellite solar power stations in 2025, the electrostatic separation of lunar soil, methods for extraterrestrial materials processing, the socio-political status of efforts toward the development of space manufacturing facilities, the financing of space industrialization, the optimization of space manufacturing systems, the design and project status of Mass Driver Two, and the use of laser-boosted lighter-than-air-vehicles as heavy-lift launch vehicles. Attention is also given to systems integration in the development of controlled ecological life support systems, the design of a space manufacturing facility to use lunar materials, high performance solar sails, the environmental effects of the satellite power system reference design, the guidance, trajectory and capture of lunar materials ejected from the moon by mass driver, the relative design merits of zero-gravity and one-gravity space environments, consciousness alteration in space and the prospecting and retrieval of asteroids.

Grey, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The ESA activities on future launchers

A future launcher development scenario depends on many assumptions, such as the impetus provided by the probability of future missions, and the political willingness of member states to undertake future developments. Because of the long timescale implied by a coherent launcher development, a step-wise approach within an overall future launcher development plan appears essential. The definition of development steps allows the launcher developments to be adapted to the driving external forces, so that no possible opportunity to Europe in the space launch business is missed out because of improper planning on the absence of a long term goal. The launcher senario, to be presented in 1985, forms part of Europe's overall STS plan for the future. This overall STS plan is one product of the complete STS LTPP, a first draft of which should exist by 1985, and which will be updated regularly to take into account the changing political and economic perspectives.

Pfeffer, H.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An assessment of prospects for international cooperation on the Space Exploration Initiative

This paper discusses the unique characteristics of the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) which will have to be taken into account if the Initiative is to become an international one; the technical capabilities offered by prospective international partners; the political and economic prospects for proceeding with the Initiative both in the United States and elsewhere; and the advantages and disadvantages of various possible approaches to international cooperation on SEI. SEI preparatory activities are likely to extend over a several-year period. Such an extended preparatory period should provide the time needed for coordinating studies, for identifing interests and potential contributions, and for resolving the numerous planning, budgeting, organizational and political issues which will have to be dealt with if such a complex undertaking is to be successfully internationalized.

Cline, Lynn F. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Energy - A systems problem

Energy management in its most comprehensive sense encompasses economic, technical, environmental, and political problems. The present evaluation of prospects notes that opportunities for energy conservation are widespread, in such fields as building air conditioning, transportation, electrical appliances, and industrial processes. Further conservation is expected to be achieved through a combination of technology development and economics; the latter factor must not be unduly influenced by political measures that shield consumers from the true cost of energy.

Bourke, Roger D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

On-orbit spacecraft servicing: An element in the evolution of space robotics applications

This paper addresses the renewed interest in on-orbit spacecraft servicing (OSS), and how it fits into the evolution of space applications for intelligent robots. Investment in the development of space robotics and associated technologies is growing as nations recognize that it is a critical component of the exploration and commercial development of space. At the same time, changes in world conditions have generated a renewal of the interest in OSS. This is reflected in the level of activity in the U.S., Japan and Europe in the form of studies and technology demonstration programs. OSS is becoming widely accepted as an opportunity in the evolution of space robotics applications. Importantly, it is a feasible proposition with current technologies and the direction of ongoing research and development activities. Interest in OSS dates back more than two decades, and several programs have been initiated, but no operational system has come on line, arguably with the Shuttle as the exception. With new opportunities arising, however, a fresh look at the feasibility of OSS is warranted. This involves the resolution of complex market, technical and political issues, through market studies, economic analyses, mission requirement definitions, trade studies, concept designs and technology demonstrations. System architectures for OSS are strongly dependent on target spacecraft design and launch delivery systems. Performance and cost factors are currently forcing significant changes in these areas. This presents both challenges and opportunities in the provision of OSS services. In conclusion, there is no question OSS will become a reality, but only when the technical feasibility is combined with either economic viability or political will. In the evolution of space robotics satellite servicing can become the next step towards its eventual role in support of planetary exploration and human beings' journey out into the universe.

Anders, Carl J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A new cooperative strategy for space in the 21st century

The context within which the major government space programs of the world are planned and obtain political approval has changed dramatically with the end of the Cold War. International economic competition has become a central issue in international affairs. Economic and political constraints require that space agencies adapt the ambitious plans they put forward in the 1980s to the realities of this decade and beyond. This paper argues that in this changed context, enhanced international space cooperation can make important contributions to advancing the core interests of nations and firms, and that in some situations, increased and more intimate cooperation may be the only way to achieve ambitious space goals. The paper contains a series of policy-oriented findings and recommendations that together comprise a 'new cooperative strategy' for space.

Delpech, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Presidential Leadership in the Development of the U.S. Space Program

Papers presented at a historical symposium on Presidential leadership in the space program include the following: 'The Imperial Presidency in the History of Space Exploration'; 'The Reluctant Racer: Dwight D. Eisenhower and United States Space Policy'; 'Kennedy and the Decision to Go to the Moon'; 'Johnson, Project Apollo, and the Politics of Space Program Planning'; 'The Presidency, Congress, and the Deceleration of the U.S. Space Program in the 1970s'; 'Politics not Science: The U.S. Space Program in the Reagan and Bush Years'; 'Presidential Leadership and International Aspects of the Space Program'; 'National Leadership and Presidential Power'; and 'Epilogue: Beyond NASA Exceptionalism'.

Launius, Roger D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Excursions in technology policy

This technical report presents a summary of three distinct projects: (1) Measuring economic benefits; (2) Evaluating the SBIR program; and (3) A model for evaluating changes in support for science and technology. the first project deals with the Technology Applications Group (TAG) at NASA Langley Research Center. The mission of TAG is to assist firms interested in commercializing technologies. TAG is a relatively new group as is the emphasis on technology commercialization for NASA. One problem faced by TAG and similar groups at other centers is measuring their effectiveness. The first project this summer, a paper entitled, 'Measuring the Economic Benefits of Technology Transfer from a National Laboratory: A Primer,' focused on this measurement problem. We found that the existing studies of the impact of technology transfer on the economy were conceptually flawed. The 'primer' outlines the appropriate theoretical framework for measuring the economic benefits of technology transfer. The second project discusses, one of the programs of TAG, the Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program. This program has led to over 400 contracts with Small Business since its inception in 1985. The program has never been evaluated. Crucial questions such as those about the extent of commercial successes from the contracts need to be answered. This summer we designed and implemented a performance evaluation survey instrument. The analysis of the data will take place in the fall. The discussion of the third project focuses on a model for evaluating changes in support for science and technology. At present several powerful forces are combining to change the environment for science and technology policy. The end of the cold war eliminated the rationale for federal support for many projects. The new- found Congressional conviction to balance the budget without tax increases combined with demographic changes which automatically increase spending for some politically popular programs will make it difficult to find funding for science and technology. Also, the two political parties have very different conceptions of the appropriate future for research and development spending. All these changes create the potential for serious, perhaps unintended, consequences for the economic future of the country. In a paper entitled, 'A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Impact of Changes in Federal Support for Science and Technology,' we introduce a model to evaluate the effects of changes in federal spending for science and technology. This paper both provides a way of organizing informed discussions and points out important research topics for science and technology policy.

Archibald, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS1997

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 62: The Influence of Knowledge Diffusion on Aeronautics Innovation: The Research, Development, and Production of Large Commercial Aircraft in France, Germany, and the United Kingdom

This paper focuses on how European public policies-individually and collectively - influence the diffusion of knowledge and technology. It begins with an overview of the roles played historically and currently by European governments in the research, development and production (RD&P) of large commercial aircraft (LCA). The analytical framework brings together literature from global political economy, comparative politics, business management, and science and technology policy studies. It distinguishes between the production of knowledge, on the one hand, and the dissemination of knowledge, on the other. France, Germany, and the United Kingdom serve as the analytical cases. The paper concludes with a call for additional research in this area, some tentative lessons learned, and a discussion of the consequences of national strategies and policies for the diffusion of knowledge and technology in an era of globalization.

Pinelli, Thomas E.↗