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DOE OSTI2020

Data for Training and Testing Radiation Detection Algorithms in an Urban Environment

The US government routinely performs radiological response deployments to search for the presence of illicit nuclear materials (e.g., highly enriched uranium and weapons-grade plutonium) in a specified area. The deployments can be intelligence driven, in support of law enforcement, and for planned events such as WrestleMania, presidential inaugurations, or political conventions. In a typical deployment, radiation detection systems carried by human operators or mounted on vehicles move in a clearing pattern through the search area. Search teams rely on radiation detection algorithms running on these systems in real time to alert them to the presence of an illicit threat source. The detection and identification of sources is complicated by large variation of natural radiation background throughout a search area and the potential presence of localized non-threat sources such as patients undergoing treatment with medical isotopes. As a result, detection algorithms must be carefully balanced between missing real sources (false negatives) and reporting too many false alarms (false positives).The purpose of this data set is to spur innovations in detecting, identifying, and localizing nuclear materials inurban search missions.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Domestic Supply Chain of Medical Consumables Needed During COVID-19 Pandemic

This report is an assessment of the availability, demand, and production capability of medical consumables needed to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. We focus here on the ability of the supply chain to increase production to meet demand during peak pandemic conditions. In addition, we report on domestic production efforts and supply chain issues, as well as the propensity of other countries to limit export of needed medical supplies to the United States. In brief, the domestic supply chain and production capability vary greatly depending on the consumable. Some consumables, such as N95 masks or face shields, can likely be nearly fully supplied by domestic production, while other consumables, such as gloves or surgical masks, have little domestic production and thus will depend on imports to meet demand. The assessment pulls primarily from published news sources and company press releases. As such, the demand and production numbers are not precisely known, and some degree of uncertainty exists in them. The total production capability is also often difficult to ascertain from these reports especially as other industries have begun to supplement existing supply chains. In addition, local conditions (including company financial decisions, local public health issues, and political aspects) can vary throughout the pandemic which will affect future production. The report also pulls from estimates of demand and domestic production of some consumables compiled by the White House COVID-19 Supply Chain Taskforce (SCTF) presented by Rear Admiral John Polowczyk before a June 9, 2020 hearing of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee. These numbers, where applicable, are likely to be more accurate than those found in public news sources since they are more directly tied to private companies’ actual orders and actual production estimates, as opposed to publicly released estimates. Finally, we note that other issues with the supply chain, including the production of raw materials, increase demand due to industries that have not previously used PPE now using it, and increased domestic production from non-traditional suppliers, make complete picture of a rapidly changing supply chain difficult to obtain. This report attempts to produce an accurate image of the supply and estimated demand, as understood by the authors who are not experts in the medical supply chain.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Field Campaign Report)

The Arctic is rapidly changing, and these changes have substantial societal relevance. First, arctic change is a leading sign of global change, as the warming observed in the Arctic is 2-3 times faster than observed across the rest of the globe. This so-called arctic amplification is due to numerous feedbacks, including those linked to the declining sea ice. Broad arctic changes are also hypothesized to be related to shifts in large-scale circulation patterns that may have implications for mid-latitude weather and ocean circulation. Arctic change is further affecting the oceans through acidification that threatens food supplies. Declining sea ice also opens the Arctic for new resource development, shipping routes, tourism, and other commercial activities. Lastly, the changing Arctic is a hotbed for geopolitical challenges as nations vie for influence and control of this resource-rich and newly accessible region. Clearly the Arctic and its changes are playing a huge role in our Earth both from a geophysical and socio-political standpoint. To navigate, manage, and respond to the challenges associated with arctic change requires a vastly improved understanding of the coupled arctic system, and the drivers and implications of these changes. It is essential to better understand the physical basis for why the arctic sea ice is declining, the associated feedbacks that work to amplify or modulate this decline, and the myriad ways that the Earth system is responding. As a result of these changes and uncertainties, there are increasing societal needs for improved model predictive skill in the Arctic, to address pressing gaps in global climate prediction, to advance forecast skills for regional and hemispheric weather and sea ice, and to ensure robust ecosystem models that realistically link physical and biological systems. To fulfill these core needs requires new, sophisticated, and cross-cutting observations within the rapidly changing arctic ice pack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

Anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are the main driver of current and future climate change. The integrated assessment community has quantified anthropogenic emissions for the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios, each of which represents a different future socio-economic projection and political environment. Here, we provide the greenhouse gas concentrations for these SSP scenarios using the reduced-complexity climate–carbon-cycle model MAGICC7.0. We extend historical, observationally based concentration data with SSP concentration projections from 2015 to 2500 for 43 greenhouse gases with monthly and latitudinal resolution. CO 2 concentrations by 2100 range from 393 to 1135 ppm for the lowest (SSP1-1.9) and highest (SSP5-8.5) emission scenarios, respectively. We also provide the concentration extensions beyond 2100 based on assumptions regarding the trajectories of fossil fuels and land use change emissions, net negative emissions, and the fraction of non-CO 2 emissions. By 2150, CO 2 concentrations in the lowest emission scenario are approximately 350 ppm and approximately plateau at that level until 2500, whereas the highest fossil-fuel-driven scenario projects CO 2 concentrations of 1737 ppm and reaches concentrations beyond 2000 ppm by 2250. We estimate that the share of CO 2 in the total radiative forcing contribution of all considered 43 long-lived greenhouse gases increases from 66% for the present day to roughly 68% to 85% by the time of maximum forcing in the 21st century. For this estimation, we updated simple radiative forcing parameterizations that reflect the Oslo Line-By-Line model results. In comparison to the representative concentration pathways (RCPs), the five main SSPs (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) are more evenly spaced and extend to lower 2100 radiative forcing and temperatures. Performing two pairs of six-member historical ensembles with CESM1.2.2, we estimate the effect on surface air temperatures of applying latitudinally and seasonally resolved GHG concentrations. We find that the ensemble differences in the March–April–May (MAM) season provide a regional warming in higher northern latitudes of up to 0.4 K over the historical period, latitudinally averaged of about 0.1 K, which we estimate to be comparable to the upper bound (~5 % level) of natural variability. In comparison to the comparatively straight line of the last 2000 years, the greenhouse gas concentrations since the onset of the industrial period and this studies' projections over the next 100 to 500 years unequivocally depict a “hockey-stick” upwards shape. The SSP concentration time series derived in this study provide a harmonized set of input assumptions for long-term climate science analysis; they also provide an indication of the wide set of futures that societal developments and policy implementations can lead to – ranging from multiple degrees of future warming on the one side to approximately 1.5°C warming on the other.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical Issues in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Ratification Debate: A 20 Year Retrospective

Two decades after the U.S. Senate declined in 1999 to give its consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty remains in legal and political limbo. Legally, the treaty cannot enter into force without U.S. ratification. However, the Senate’s rejection does not strip the treaty of its force as an element of customary international law or alter the will of other signatories to see it enter into force. Politically, the debate over the virtues and flaws of the treaty remains as strong as ever, with some CTBT advocates pushing energetically for U.S. re-review while some opponents seek ways to “un-sign” the treaty. Meanwhile, despite the Senate’s rejection of the treaty, the United States acts in a manner consistent with its main obligations by maintaining a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing and providing financial support (as well as technical expertise) to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO)—in particular the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS). The CTBT may well remain in such limbo for a long time to come, unless some catalytic event comes along to re-shape national perceptions and priorities, one way or the other. The treaty’s future, whatever it might be, will be determined in part by how much perspectives might have changed in light of interim developments. Our purpose is to shed light on some of those developments and to assess their relevance. The 1999 ratification debate addressed a large number of issues. Rejection was driven by various policy and technical judgments. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine those technical judgments in light of what has been learned over the following two decades. On some technical matters, there was explicit recognition of extant uncertainties, as well as a conviction and hope that time would dispel them. To be doubly clear, our purpose is not to recommend a way forward on CTBT ratification. The policy judgments of 1999 and 2020 are beyond the scope of this paper. This technical re-examination proceeds as follows. It begins with a short background section to introduce the key technical matters in discussion in the U.S. ratification process. Then it moves systematically through each of those topics with a review of relevant background information, a discussion of key points in debate, an analysis of subsequent experience, and a current assessment. The historical analysis draws on many sources including the primary documents of the Congressional debate, the official article-by-article interpretation by the Department of State, and the statements of key players in the process. We also relied on key technical reports and publications by subject matter experts that have addressed in more detail many of the issues in our focus. These sources include the 2002 and 2012 reports of the National Academy of Sciences as well as publications by senior technical staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) who were actively involved in the ratification debate, including then-Laboratory Director Bruce Tarter. We also conducted several interviews with government officials from the 1990s, past laboratory directors, and other members of the scientific community. But, except where individuals are specifically cited by name, the judgments offered here are our own and should not be attributed to any other individual or to LLNL as such.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2022

Photocatalytic Biocidal Coatings Featuring Zr 6 Ti 4 -Based Metal–Organic Frameworks

The world is currently suffering socially, economically, and politically from the recent pandemic outbreak due to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), and those in hospitals, schools, and elderly nursing homes face enhanced threats. Healthcare textiles, such as masks and medical staff gowns, are susceptible to contamination of various pathogenic microorganisms, including bacteria and viruses. Here, metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) can potentially address these challenges due to their tunable reactivity and ability to be incorporated as porous coatings on textile materials. Here, we report how incorporating titanium into the zirconium-pyrene-based MOF NU-1000, denoted as NU-1012, generates a highly reactive biocidal photocatalyst. This MOF features a rare ligand migration phenomenon, and both the Ti/Zr center and the pyrene linker act synergistically as dual active centers and widen the absorption band for this material that results in enhanced reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation upon visible light irradiation. Additionally, we found the ligand migration process is generally applicable to other csq topology Zr-MOFs. Importantly, NU-1012 can be easily incorporated onto cotton textile cloths as a coating, and the resulting composite material demonstrates fast and potent biocidal activity against Gram-negative bacteria (E. coli), Gram-positive bacteria (S. epidermidis), and T7 bacteriophage virus with up to a 7-log (99.99999%) reduction within one hour under simulated daylight.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap on advanced and / real-time characterisation of solid state materials and devices for energy applications

A strong societal and political drive is motivating the development and optimization of novel energy conversion and storage systems for decarbonization. The successful implementation of solid state devices such as fuel cells and secondary batteries depends, however, on achieving ambitious targets in terms of performance, reliability and cost competitiveness. Research and technology are addressing these needs through a holistic approach including exploration of new materials and nanoarchitectures, as well as system engineering. These significant efforts require the support of appropriate characterization tools capable of assessing nanometer-scale phenomena such as concentration profiles of ionic and electronic charges, local chemical compositions and their evolution over time across interfaces. This roadmap provides an overview of selected advanced characterization techniques for energy materials and devices. Specific focus is put on in situ/operando methods for probing electrochemical phenomena in real-time under realistic working conditions. Experts in the field provide an extensive review of the current state of the art in 2025 and the current and future challenges for the characterization of local chemistry and kinetics in the bulk of the material, in nanoarchitectures (e.g. thin films) and at the interfaces (e.g. grain boundaries, phase contacts, solid/liquid and solid/gas interfaces) . The aim is to provide a detailed guide to the techniques, describing opportunities and bottlenecks for their practical deployment and examples of successful applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

An editorial to the Special Issue on “Severe climate Risks”

The history of this Special Issue (https://www.sciencedirect.com/special-issue/10JD7LNJNQ0) indirectly dates back to the early 1990s, when the signature of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change kicked-off an international political process based on one overarching and foundational principle: to avoid “dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” at the global level. More than three decades later, such a principle remains central, though complementary aims made their way through the climate negotiation process, such as the importance of ensuring equity and justice, to give just one example here. Scientific knowledge also considerably progressed and we know more about the range of risks that climate change imposes and will continue to impose to the biosphere and humankind, worldwide and at all territorial levels. It is also clear that societal responses to these risks —“climate adaptation” as we know it— are increasingly happening, but definitely not at the pace of climate risk trends (Berrang-Ford et al., 2021, Erisken et al., 2021, Olazabal and Ruiz De Gopegui, 2021, Magnan et al., 2023a, Reckien et al., 2023, UNEP, 2023). As a result, concerns have emerged over the recent years in both the scientific and policy arenas around the idea that societies may not be able to address all climate risks, and that limits to adaptation and induced residual risks need to be considered more seriously. Such concerns further highlight the continuing importance of the imperative to minimise dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, at any scale. But what does “dangerous interference” mean? How can we decide that we are entering the “dangerous” space, compared to a broader range of climate risks that would qualify as problematic but not necessarily “dangerous”? Who should make such a decision? Which conditions drive risk severity over time, including in the future? And what would be the environmental, economic, social and cultural implications of prioritising some climate risks over others? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was a pioneer in addressing such questions through the development of the “Key Risks” framing that describes those climate risks having the potential to become dangerous or “severe” over the course of this century (Schellnhuber et al., 2006, Schneider et al., 2007, Oppenheimer et al., 2014, O’Neill et al., 2022). The Fifth and Sixth assessment cycles (AR5 and AR6) went a step further by identifying about 120 Key Risks across regions and sectors, and clustering them into 8 “Representative Key Risks” covering a range of geographical systems (low-lying coasts, and to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems), sectors (critical infrastructure, living standards, human health, food security, and water security) and human dimensions (peace and mobility) (Oppenheimer et al., 2014, O’Neill et al., 2022). This Special Issue was born of the efforts of a range of authors, during the development of the IPCC AR6 main Assessment Report between 2019 and 2022, to characterise Key Risks and Representative Key Risks, and advance knowledge on what shapes “severe climate risks” conceptually as well as in the real-world. The series of papers forming this Special Issue is not intended to cover the topic exhaustively, but rather to give readers an overview through the following narrative: defining “severe climate risks” is highly challenging (Magnan et al., 2023b), but knowledge is expanding on the driving climate hazards (Tebaldi et al., 2023) and their implications on geographical systems, sectors and human dimensions, using here food security (Mirzabaev et al., 2023), human mobility (Gilmore et al., 2024) and peace (Buhaug et al., 2023) as illustrative examples. The overall intention is to support especially decision-makers, whatever the scale or sector considered, in asking severity-driven questions to identify sector- and context-specific “priority” risks from climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗