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Decarbonizing the US Energy System

Recent rapid and unexpected cost reductions in decarbonization technologies have accelerated the cost-effective decarbonization of the US economy, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions falling by 20% from 2005 to 2020. The literature on US economy-wide decarbonization focuses on maximizing long-term GHG emissions reduction strategies that rely mostly on renewable energy expansion, electrification, and efficiency improvements to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. While these studies provide a valuable foundation, further research is needed to properly support decarbonization policy development and implementation. In this review, we identify key decarbonization analysis gaps and opportunities, including issues related to cross-sectoral linkages, spatial and temporal granularity, consumer behavior, emerging technologies, equity and environmental justice, and political economy. We conclude by discussing the implications of these analysis gaps for US decarbonization pathways and how they relate to challenges facing major global emitters.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Design strategies for the International Space University's variable gravity research facility

A variable gravity research facility named 'Newton' was designed by 58 students from 13 countries at the International Space University's 1989 summer session at the Universite Louis Pasteur, Strasbourge, France. The project was comprehensive in scope, including a political and legal foundation for international cooperation, development and financing; technical, science and engineering issues; architectural design; plausible schedules; and operations, crew issues and maintenance. Since log-term exposure to zero gravity is known to be harmful to the human body, the main goal was to design a unique variable gravity research facility which would find a practical solution to this problem, permitting a manned mission to Mars. The facility would not duplicate other space-based facilities and would provide the flexibility for examining a number of gravity levels, including lunar and Martian gravities. Major design alternatives included a truss versus a tether based system which also involved the question of docking while spinning or despinning to dock. These design issues are described. The relative advantages or disadvantages are discussed, including comments on the necessary research and technology development required for each.

Bailey, Sheila G.↗

International collaboration on Russian spacecraft and the case for free flyer biosatellites

Animal research has been critical to the initiation and progress of space exploration. Animals were the original explorers of "space" two centuries ago and have played a crucial role by demonstrating that the space environment, with precautions, is compatible with human survival. Studies of mammals have yielded much of our knowledge of space physiology. As spaceflights to other planets are anticipated, animal research will continue to be essential to further reveal space physiology and to enable the longer missions. Much of the physiology data collected from space was obtained from the Cosmos (Bion) spaceflights, a series of Russian (Soviet)-International collaborative flights, over a 22 year period, which employed unmanned, free flyer biosatellites. Begun as a Soviet-only program, after the second flight the Russians invited American and other foreign scientists to participate. This program filled the 10 year hiatus between the last US biosatellite and the first animal experiments on the shuttles. Of the 11 flights in the Cosmos program nine of them were international; the flights continued over the years regardless of political differences between the Soviet Union and the Western world. The science evolved from sharing tissues to joint international planning and development, and from rat postmortem tissue analysis to in vivo measurements of a host of monkey physiological parameters during flight. Many types of biological specimens were carried on the modified Vostok spacecraft, but only the mammalian studies are discussed herein. The types of studies done encompass the full range of physiology and have begun to answer "critical" questions of space physiology posed by various ad hoc committees. The studies have not only yielded a prodigious and significant body of data, they have also introduced some new perspectives in physiology. A number of the physiological insights gained are relevant to physiology on Earth. The Cosmos flights also added significantly to flight-related technology, some of which also has application on our planet. In summary, the Cosmos biosatellite flights were extremely productive and of low cost. The Bion vehicles are versatile in that they can be placed into a variety of orbits and altitudes, and can carry radiation sources or other hazardous material which cannot be carried on manned vehicles. With recent advances in sensor, robotic, and data processing technology, future free flyers will be even more productive, and will largely preclude the need to fly animal experiments on manned vehicles. Currently, mammalian researchers do not have access to space for an unknown time, seriously impeding the advancement and understanding of space physiology during long duration missions. Initiation of a new, international program of free flyer biosatellites is critical to our further understanding of space physiology, and essential to continued human exploration of space.

short duration↗

Cognitive Bias in Systems Verification

Working definition of cognitive bias: Patterns by which information is sought and interpreted that can lead to systematic errors in decisions. Cognitive bias is used in diverse fields: Economics, Politics, Intelligence, Marketing, to name a few. Attempts to ground cognitive science in physical characteristics of the cognitive apparatus exceed our knowledge. Studies based on correlations; strict cause and effect is difficult to pinpoint. Effects cited in the paper and discussed here have been replicated many times over, and appear sound. Many biases have been described, but it is still unclear whether they are all distinct. There may only be a handful of fundamental biases, which manifest in various ways. Bias can effect system verification in many ways . Overconfidence -> Questionable decisions to deploy. Availability -> Inability to conceive critical tests. Representativeness -> Overinterpretation of results. Positive Test Strategies -> Confirmation bias. Debiasing at individual level very difficult. The potential effect of bias on the verification process can be managed, but not eliminated. Worth considering at key points in the process.

Cognitive bias↗

Earth Science Data and Models for Improved Targeting of Humanitarian Aid

Humanitarian assistance to developing countries has long focused on countries that have political, economic and strategic interest to the United States. Recent changes in global security concerns have heightened the perception that humanitarian action is becoming increasingly politicized. This is seen to be largely driven by the 'global war on terror' along with a push by donors and the United Nations for closer integration between humanitarian action and diplomatic, military and other spheres of engagement in conflict and crisis-affected states (HPG 2010). As we enter an era of rising commodity prices and increasing uncertainty in global food production due to a changing climate, scientific data and analysis will be increasingly important to improve the targeting of humanitarian assistance. Earth science data enables appropriate humanitarian response to complex food emergencies that arise in regions outside the areas of current strategic and security focus. As the climate changes, new places will become vulnerable to food insecurity and will need emergency assistance. Earth science data and multidisciplinary models will enable an information-based comparison of need that goes beyond strategic and political considerations to identify new hotspots of food insecurity as they emerge. These analyses will improve aid targeting and timeliness while reducing strategic risk by highlighting new regions at risk of crisis in a rapidly changing world. Improved targeting with respect to timing and location could reduce cost while increasing the likelihood that those who need aid get it.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Science on the Moon: The Wailing Wall of Space Exploration

Science on and from the Moon has important implications for expanding human knowledge and understanding, a prospect for the 21st Century that has been under discussion for at least the past 25 years. That having been said, however, there remain many issues of international versus national priorities, strategy, economy, and politics that come into play. The result is a very complex form of human behavior where science and exploration take center stage, but many other important human options are sacrificed. To renew this dialogue about the Moon, it seems we are already rushing pell-mell into it as has been done in the past. The U.S., Japan, China, India, and Russia either have sent or plan to send satellites and robotic landers there at this time. What does a return to the Moon mean, why are we doing this now, who should pay for it, and how? The only semblance of such a human enterprise seems to be the LHC currently coming online at CERN. Can it be used as a model of international collaboration rather than a sports or military event focused on national competition? Who decides and what is the human sacrifice? There are compelling arguments for establishing science on the Moon as one of the primary goals for returning to the Moon and venturing beyond. A number of science endeavors will be summarized, beyond lunar and planetary science per se. These include fundamental physics experiments that are background-limited by the Earth's magnetic dipole moment and noise produced by its atmosphere and seismic interior. The Moon is an excellent platform for some forms of astronomy. Other candidate Moon-based experiments vary from neutrino and gravitational wave astronomy, particle astrophysics, and cosmic-ray calorimeters, to space physics and fundamental physics such as proton decay. The list goes on and includes placing humans in a hostile environment to study the long-term effects of space weather. The list is long, and even newer ideas will come from this COSPAR conference. However, whatever the list the issue of cooperation and binding collaboration remains. As observers of Moon and other space enterprises, we all know that a room full of 60 scientists will not agree on much of anything and there will probably be 60! please for more funding. People have special interests and little common sense (e.g., conflict between NSF- and NASA-funding roadmaps). Scientists are no exception. Nevertheless, CERN has done it on Earth! Can we do the same on the Moon? Some of the present generation of proposals for science from and on the Moon, plus new ones, will witness a place in space exploration's future. It is clear, however, that the world has not thought this through adequately, except for talk about an international space federation whatever that is. An outpost on the Moon with humans permanently living there much like Antarctica on Earth may be in our future. However, such planning is our collective international responsibility and not that of special-interest investigators from individual nations unless they intend to pay for it.

Wilson, Thomas↗

Topical Issue on Optical Particle Characterization and Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere: Part I

Increasing our understanding of the Earth-atmosphere system has been a scientific and political priority for the last few decades. This system not only touches on environmental science, but it has applicability to our broader understanding of planetary atmospheres in general. While this issue focuses primarily on electromagnetics, other fundamental fields of science, including fluid and thermodynamics play major roles. In recent years, significant research efforts have led to advances in the fields of radiative transfer and electromagnetic scattering from irregularly shaped particles. Recently, several workshops and small conferences have taken place to promote the fusion of these efforts. Late in 2013, for instance, two such meetings took place. The Optical Characterization of Atmospheric Aerosols (OCAA) meeting took place in Smolenice, Slovakia to promote a better understanding of microphysical properties of aerosol particles, and the characterization of such atmospheric particles using optical techniques. A complementary conference was organized in Nagoya, Japan, the 3rd International Symposium on Atmospheric Light Scattering and Remote Sensing (ISALSaRS), whose goal is to fuse the advances achieved in particle characterization with remote-sensing techniques. While the focus of these meetings is slightly different, they represent the same aspects of this rapidly growing field. This Topical Issue is the first of two parts. Within this issue we analyze different aspects of the problem of atmospheric characterization and present a broad overview of the topical area. Research includes theory and experiment, ranging from fundamental microphysical properties of individual aerosol particles to broad characterizations of atmospheric properties. Since this is an active field, we also have encouraged the submission of ideas for new methodologies that may represent the future of the field.

aerosols↗

Science Traverses in the Canadian High Arctic

The presentation is divided into three parts. Part I is an overview of early expeditions to the High Arctic, and their political consequences at the time. The focus then shifts to the Geological Survey of Canada s mapping program in the North (Operation Franklin), and to the Polar Continental Shelf Project (PCSP), a unique organization that resides within the Government of Canada s Department of Natural Resources, and supports mapping projects and science investigations. PCSP is highlighted throughout the presentation so a description of mandate, budgets, and support infrastructure is warranted. In Part II, the presenter describes the planning required in advance of scientific deployments carried out in the Canadian High Arctic from the perspective of government and university investigators. Field operations and challenges encountered while leading arctic field teams in fly camps are also described in this part of the presentation, with particular emphasis on the 2008 field season. Part III is a summary of preliminary results obtained from a Polar Survey questionnaire sent out to members of the Arctic research community in anticipation of the workshop. The last part of the talk is an update on the analog program at the Canadian Space Agency, specifically, the Canadian Analog Research Network (CARN) and current activities related to Analog missions, 2009-2010.

Williamson, Marie-Claude↗

Conservation and conviviality in the American West

The emerging field of convivial conservation (CC) draws on the tradition of political ecology (PE) to present a “radical” alternative to contemporary environmentalisms, speaking to the challenges of conservation in the Anthropocene as well as the global ascent of reactionary populism. Building on previous work arguing for the ongoing value of dialogue between PE and the American West, I here develop a conversation between CC and another radical intervention, the collaborative conservation of the West’s so-called “radical center” (RC). Using the nexus of wolf–livestock conflict and public lands grazing, I first trace a genealogical history of western environmental politics before turning to CC as critical corrective to the shortcomings of the RC. Scholarship on the commons and commoning provides an analytical bridge and political toolkit for linking the empirics of place with the aspirational aims of conviviality, and naming and navigating on-the-ground obstacles to collaborative conservation efforts in the region. This dialogue in turn highlights deeply rooted tensions of capitalist political economy and questions of non/belonging rooted in settler colonialism—necessary regional engagements for building from polarized antagonism toward an alternative environmental politics of coexistence and conviviality.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Manned Mars Missions. Working group papers, volume 1, section 1-4

The papers presented by the working group on Manned Mars Missions are given. The purpose is to update earlier Mars missions study data, to examine the impact of new and emerging technologies on Mars mission capabilities, and to identify technological issues that would be useful in projecting scientific and engineering research in the coming decades. The papers are grouped into nine sections, which are: (1) rationale; (2) transportation trades and issues; (3) mission and configuration concepts; (4) surface infrastructure; (5) science investigations and issues; (6) life science/medical issues; (7) subsystems and technology development requirements; (8) political and economic issues; and (9) impact on other programs.

Michael B Duke↗

Development of NASA's Small Fission Power System for Science and Human Exploration

Exploration of our solar system has brought great knowledge to our nation's scientific and engineering community over the past several decades. As we expand our visions to explore new, more challenging destinations, we must also expand our technology base to support these new missions. NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate is tasked with developing these technologies for future mission infusion and continues to seek answers to many existing technology gaps. One such technology gap is related to compact power systems (greater than 1 kWe) that provide abundant power for several years where solar energy is unavailable or inadequate. Below 1 kWe, Radioisotope Power Systems have been the workhorse for NASA and will continue, assuming its availability, to be used for lower power applications similar to the successful missions of Voyager, Ulysses, New Horizons, Cassini, and Curiosity. Above 1 kWe, fission power systems become an attractive technology offering a scalable modular design of the reactor, shield, power conversion, and heat transport subsystems. Near term emphasis has been placed in the 1-10kWe range that lies outside realistic radioisotope power levels and fills a promising technology gap capable of enabling both science and human exploration missions. History has shown that development of space reactors is technically, politically, and financially challenging and requires a new approach to their design and development. A small team of NASA and DOE experts are providing a solution to these enabling FPS technologies starting with the lowest power and most cost effective reactor series named "Kilopower" that is scalable from approximately 1-10 kWe.

Solar System↗

Development of NASA's Small Fission Power System for Science and Human Exploration

Exploration of our solar system has brought many exciting challenges to our nations scientific and engineering community over the past several decades. As we expand our visions to explore new, more challenging destinations, we must also expand our technology base to support these new missions. NASAs Space Technology Mission Directorate is tasked with developing these technologies for future mission infusion and continues to seek answers to many existing technology gaps. One such technology gap is related to compact power systems (1 kWe) that provide abundant power for several years where solar energy is unavailable or inadequate. Below 1 kWe, Radioisotope Power Systems have been the workhorse for NASA and will continue to be used for lower power applications similar to the successful missions of Voyager, Ulysses, New Horizons, Cassini, and Curiosity. Above 1 kWe, fission power systems become an attractive technology offering a scalable modular design of the reactor, shield, power conversion, and heat transport subsystems. Near term emphasis has been placed in the 1-10kWe range that lies outside realistic radioisotope power levels and fills a promising technology gap capable of enabling both science and human exploration missions. History has shown that development of space reactors is technically, politically, and financially challenging and requires a new approach to their design and development. A small team of NASA and DOE experts are providing a solution to these enabling FPS technologies starting with the lowest power and most cost effective reactor series named Kilopower that is scalable from approximately 1-10 kWe.

Heat Transfer↗

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

extreme weather events↗

Global Systems Science: A New World View

Global systems science is a new field of study about the interactions between Earth's natural systems and human activities. The people who study global systems science draw on methods and theories of many different fields from chemistry and biology to economics and politics-in order to predict how today's actions are likely to affect the world of tomorrow - our world and our children's world.

Sneider, Cary↗

SEDONA: SpEctroscopic Detection of Nerve Agents

Los Alamos National Laboratory developed the only portable screener to accurately detect the chemical nerve agents, providing results in seconds. Current airport detection system cannot scan for the threat of organophosphorus nerve agents and insecticides. Small quantities of these toxic chemicals can very quickly cause widespread exposure and severe symptoms. SEDONA screens through an unopened bottle using the principles of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The system could be deployed and operated with minimal training. SEDONA dramatically reduces the likelihood of a successful nerve agent attack at airports, government buildings, embassies, sporting events, concerts, and political rallies.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Psychosocial drivers of land management behaviour: How threats, norms, and context influence deforestation intentions

Understanding how private landholders make deforestation decisions is of paramount importance for conservation. Behavioural frameworks from the social sciences have a lot to offer researchers and practitioners, yet these insights remain underutilised in describing what drives landholders' deforestation intentions under important political, social, and management contexts. Using survey data of private landholders in Queensland, Australia, we compare the ability of two popular behavioural models to predict future deforestation intentions, and propose a more integrated behavioural model of deforestation intentions. We found that the integrated model outperformed other models, revealing the importance of threat perceptions, attitudes, and social norms for predicting landholders' deforestation intentions. Social capital, policy uncertainty, and years of experience are important contextual moderators of these psychological factors. Here, we conclude with recommendations for promoting behaviour change in this deforestation hotspot and highlight how others can adopt similar approaches to illuminate more proximate drivers of environmental behaviours in other contexts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Space research - At a crossroads

Efforts which must be expended if U.S. space research is to regain vitality in the next few years are discussed. Small-scale programs are the cornerstone for big science projects, giving both researchers and students a chance to practice the development of space missions and hardware and identify promising goals for larger projects. Small projects can be carried aloft by balloons, sounding rockets, the Shuttle and ELVs. It is recommended that NASA continue the development of remote sensing systems, and join with other government agencies to fund space-based materials science, space biology and medical research. Increased international cooperation in space projects is necessary for affording moderate to large scale missions, for political reasons, and to maximize available space resources. Finally, the establishment and funding of long-range goals in space, particularly the development of the infrastructure and technologies for the exploration and colonization of the planets, must be viewed as the normal outgrowth of the capabilities being developed for LEO operations.

Mcdonald, Frank B.↗