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DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗

DOE OSTI2023

A comparative analysis of US state-level policies and programs to advance energy justice

Abstract The US energy system is undergoing massive changes that have environmental, technological, and societal implications. Decisions and actions taken now will dramatically alter the trajectory of our future energy system. Though new technologies can lessen the dangers of anthropogenic climate change, an effective and sustainable transition requires addressing social justice issues as a priority. To this end, many states have implemented policies and programs that address energy justice. A formal survey of state-level energy justice policies and programs is needed to better understand the methods used to assist communities targeted and the impacts of these efforts. Such an analysis should include an analysis of the metrics used to judge the effectiveness of the enacted policies and programs. In this paper, we analyze the energy justice policies and programs of seven different US states. From this analysis, we identify three important aspects of state energy policies. First, most policies and programs do not articulate their goals, nor cite metrics to judge their successes. This lack of transparency and accountability is a major roadblock to truly just solutions. Second, states focus on a very narrow range of solutions for energy justice issues. The most prevalent being utility bill assistance, which does not address the systemic and enduring challenges faced by many low-income or historically marginalized communities. Lastly, comprehensive energy policy does not acknowledge and address housing, employment, education, and healthcare inequities that exacerbate energy system inequities. The work presented in this paper sheds light on the progress of state-level energy justice policies and programs across the United States, and we argue more work needs to be done to understand best practices in energy justice policymaking.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Policies to Spur Energy Access. Executive Summary; Volume 1, Engaging the Private Sector in Expanding Access to Electricity; Volume 2, Case Studies to Public-Private Models to Finance Decentralized Electricity Access

Government policy is one of the most important factors in engaging the private sector in providing universal access to electricity. In particular, the private sector is well positioned to provide decentralized electricity products and services. While policy uncertainty and regulatory barriers can keep enterprises and investors from engaging in the market, targeted policies can create opportunities to leverage private investment and skills to expand electricity access. However, creating a sustainable market requires policies beyond traditional electricity regulation. The report reviews the range of policy issues that impact the development and expansion of a market for decentralized electricity services from establishing an enabling policy environment to catalyzing finance, building human capacity, and integrating energy access with development programs. The case studies in this report show that robust policy frameworks--addressing a wide range of market issues--can lead to rapid transformation in energy access. The report highlights examples of these policies in action Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Mali, Mexico, and Nepal.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Policy implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of United States emissions and energy system impacts

Many countries, subnational jurisdictions, and companies are setting net-zero emissions goals; however, questions remain about strategies to reach these targets, policy measures, technology gaps, and economic impacts. Here, we investigate the potential policy implications of reaching economy-wide net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States by 2050 using results from a multi-model comparison with 14 energy-economic models. Model results suggest that achieving net-zero CO 2 targets depends on policies that accelerate deployment of zero- and low-emitting technologies that have seen rapid cost reductions in recent years (including wind, solar, battery storage, and electric vehicles) as well as relatively nascent options (including carbon capture and storage, advanced biofuels, low-carbon hydrogen, advanced nuclear, and long-duration energy storage). While net-zero policies are likely to lower fossil fuel consumption, including considerable coal and petroleum reductions, achieving net-zero emissions does not necessarily mean phasing out all fossil fuels. Model results indicate that the Inflation Reduction Act’s energy and climate provisions amplify near-term decarbonization but that net-zero policies have larger impacts on long-run outcomes. Stringent climate policy can have large fiscal impacts on tax revenue and government spending—revenues from carbon pricing and subsidies for carbon removal range from 0.1 % to 3.7 % of GDP in 2050 across models. Each dollar per metric ton carbon price leads to a 0.06 % to 0.31 % reduction in economy-wide CO 2 emissions relative to a reference scenario with current policies. Spending on energy across the economy decreases relative to today for many models under reference and net-zero policies, especially as a share of GDP, due primarily to end-use electrification and energy efficiency.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

DNN-based policies for stochastic AC OPF

We report a prominent challenge to the safe and optimal operation of the modern power grid arises due to growing uncertainties in loads and renewables. Stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) formulations provide a mechanism to handle these uncertainties by computing dispatch decisions and control policies that maintain feasibility under uncertainty. Most SOPF formulations consider simple control policies such as affine policies that are mathematically simple and resemble many policies used in current practice. Motivated by the efficacy of machine learning (ML) algorithms and the potential benefits of general control policies for cost and constraint enforcement, we put forth a deep neural network (DNN)-based policy that predicts the generator dispatch decisions in real time in response to uncertainty. The weights of the DNN are learnt using stochastic primal–dual updates that solve the SOPF without the need for prior generation of training labels and can explicitly account for the feasibility constraints in the SOPF. The advantages of the DNN policy over simpler policies and their efficacy in enforcing safety limits and producing near optimal solutions are demonstrated in the context of a chance constrained formulation on a number of test cases.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Guanajuato Policy Options for Land Transportation Greenhouse Gas Reduction [Slides]

NREL consulted the Mexican state of Guanajuato to help them identify and prioritize policies that are specifically applicable to their land transportation system and help them meet their greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals. Three focus groups were held across Guanajuato to get the input from a wide variety of users of the transportation system. These focus groups performed a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analysis of Guanajuato's transportation system and logged the policy goals of participants. NREL then developed a menu of policy options that have been used successfully in relevant countries and prioritized these policies based on the weighted input from stakeholder groups. The most applicable policies were a paid parking strategy, regional transit master plan, and expanded bike and pedestrian infrastructure. Case studies of these three policies, plus a few more, were then presented to inform Guanajuato of how these policies could successfully be implemented. Finally, the GHG reductions for five of the most applicable policies were estimated to reduce emissions from Guanajuato's land transportation system nearly 40% below business-as-usual emissions by 2050.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2016

Estimating the National Carbon Abatement Potential of City Policies: A Data-Driven Approach

Cities are increasingly taking actions such as building code enforcement, urban planning, and public transit expansion to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in their communities and municipal operations. However, many cities lack the quantitative information needed to estimate policy impacts and prioritize city actions in terms of carbon abatement potential and cost effectiveness. This report fills this research gap by providing methodologies to assess the carbon abatement potential of a variety of city actions. The methodologies are applied to an energy use data set of 23,458 cities compiled for the U.S. Department of Energy City Energy Profile tool. The analysis develops a national estimate of the carbon abatement potential of realizable city actions in six specific policy areas encompassing the most commonly implemented city actions. The results of this analysis suggest that, in aggregate, cities could reduce nationwide carbon emissions by about 210 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (MMT CO2) per year in a 'moderate abatement scenario' by 2035 and 480 MMT CO2/year in a 'high abatement scenario' by 2035 through these common actions typically within a city's control in the six policy areas. The aggregate carbon abatement potential of these specific areas equates to a reduction of 3%-7% relative to 2013 U.S. emissions. At the city level, the results suggest the average city could reduce carbon emissions by 7% (moderate) to 19% (high) relative to current city-level emissions. In the context of U.S. climate commitments under the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP21), the estimated national abatement potential of the city actions analyzed in this report equates to about 15%-35% of the remaining carbon abatement necessary to achieve the U.S. COP21 target. Additional city actions outside the scope of this report, such as community choice aggregation (city-level purchasing of renewable energy), zero energy districts, and multi-level governance strategies, could significantly augment the carbon abatement contributions of city actions toward national climate targets. The results suggest that cities may play a pivotal role in progress toward national climate targets. In addition to providing carbon and emissions estimates, this report estimates the national net economic impacts of policies for which cost and benefit data are available. Impact metrics include employment, worker earnings, and gross domestic product (GDP). For the policy areas studied, the economic analysis demonstrates that city carbon abatement may be achieved with only minimal and generally slightly positive economic impacts. Employment impacts range from 0.04% to 0.13% of U.S, employment during implementation and zero to 0.1% thereafter. GDP estimates show net impacts of 0.02% to 0.07% of GDP during implementation and impacts from -0.02% to zero thereafter. This report quantitatively demonstrates the material impact of a limited set of local policy areas on national carbon abatement potential. The magnitude of estimated carbon reductions from city policies, 3%-7% of national emissions by 2035, suggests an important role for city-led actions in reaching U.S. climate goals. Multi-level governance at the city, state, and national levels could augment the carbon abatement potential of city actions and make cities a key component of long-term U.S. climate strategies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climate and air pollution implications of potential energy infrastructure and policy measures in India

India is a rapidly developing economy with interrelated air quality, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation goals. There are unique challenges to achieving each of these goals as well as potential tradeoffs among them. This study examines the implications of possible future energy, climate, and air pollution control policies and measures in India through 2050. We take a scenario approach using the GCAM global energy-climate-land model combined with the Hector simple climate model and the TM5-FASST air quality source-receptor model to examine energy, climate and air quality outcomes. Reducing use of traditional biomass in buildings can reduce primary carbonaceous particulate emissions well below 2015 levels. However, policies that are more ambitious than current plans would likely be required to reduce SO 2 and NO x emissions well below 2015 levels. Among single policy cases considered, pricing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and expansion of natural gas infrastructure have the largest impacts on overall energy system changes relative to the reference scenario. Ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies lead to the largest reductions in air pollution concentrations and radiative forcing, respectively. However, ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies differ in the extent to which they support or impede other policy objectives. Forcing increases due to reduced aerosols from ambitious air pollution policies can be mitigated, at least in part, by applying air pollution control and GHG policies together.

India↗

DOE OSTI2024

Non-Stationary Policy Learning for Multi-Timescale Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

In multi-timescale multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), agents interact across different timescales. In general, policies for time-dependent behaviors, such as those induced by multiple timescales, are non-stationary. Learning non-stationary policies is challenging and typically requires sophisticated or inefficient algorithms. Motivated by the prevalence of this control problem in real-world complex systems, we introduce a simple framework for learning non-stationary policies for multi-timescale MARL. Our approach uses available information about agent timescales to define and learn periodic multi-agent policies. In detail, we theoretically demonstrate that the effects of non-stationarity introduced by multiple timescales can be learned by a periodic multi-agent policy. To learn such policies, we propose a policy gradient algorithm that parameterizes the actor and critic with phase-functioned neural networks, which provide an inductive bias for periodicity. The framework's ability to effectively learn multi-timescale policies is validated on a gridworld and building energy management environment.

control↗

NASA NTRS1972

The Policy Formation Process: A Conceptual Framework for Analysis

A conceptual framework for analysis which is intended to assist both the policy analyst and the policy researcher in their empirical investigations into policy phenomena is developed. It is meant to facilitate understanding of the policy formation process by focusing attention on the basic forces shaping the main features of policy formation as a dynamic social-political-organizational process. The primary contribution of the framework lies in its capability to suggest useful ways of looking at policy formation reality. It provides the analyst and the researcher with a group of indicators which suggest where to look and what to look for when attempting to analyze and understand the mix of forces which energize, maintain, and direct the operation of strategic level policy systems. The framework also highlights interconnections, linkage, and relational patterns between and among important variables. The framework offers an integrated set of conceptual tools which facilitate understanding of and research on the complex and dynamic set of variables which interact in any major strategic level policy formation process.

Fuchs, E. F.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Promoting a Culture of Tailoring for Systems Engineering Policy Expectations

NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed an integrated systems engineering approach to promote a culture of tailoring for program and project policy requirements. MSFC's culture encourages and supports tailoring, with an emphasis on risk-based decision making, for enhanced affordability and efficiency. MSFC's policy structure integrates the various Agency requirements into a single, streamlined implementation approach which serves as a "one-stop-shop" for our programs and projects to follow. The engineers gain an enhanced understanding of policy and technical expectations, as well as lesson's learned from MSFC's history of spaceflight and science missions, to enable them to make appropriate, risk-based tailoring recommendations. The tailoring approach utilizes a standard methodology to classify projects into predefined levels using selected mission and programmatic scaling factors related to risk tolerance. Policy requirements are then selectively applied and tailored, with appropriate rationale, and approved by the governing authorities, to support risk-informed decisions to achieve the desired cost and schedule efficiencies. The policy is further augmented by implementation tools and lifecycle planning aids which help promote and support the cultural shift toward more tailoring. The MSFC Customization Tool is an integrated spreadsheet that ties together everything that projects need to understand, navigate, and tailor the policy. It helps them classify their project, understand the intent of the requirements, determine their tailoring approach, and document the necessary governance approvals. It also helps them plan for and conduct technical reviews throughout the lifecycle. Policy tailoring is thus established as a normal part of project execution, with the tools provided to facilitate and enable the tailoring process. MSFC's approach to changing the culture emphasizes risk-based tailoring of policy to achieve increased flexibility, efficiency, and effectiveness in project execution, while maintaining appropriate rigor to ensure mission success.

Blankenship, Van A.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Near-Term Policy Considerations for Lunar Missions

Near-Term Policy Considerations for Lunar Missions. Therese Jones1, Gabriel Swiney,1 and Katie McBrayer,2 1NASA HQ, 300 Hidden Figures Way SW, Washington, D.C. 20546, 2NASA Langley Re-search Center, 1 NASA Drive, Hampton, VA, 23666. (Contact: therese.m.jones@nasa.gov) Introduction: More than two dozen lunar missions are planned prior to the Artemis III crewed lunar landing, from Russian, Chinese, Indian, Japanese and U.S. government orbiters and landers to Commercial Lunar Payload Ser-vices missions to commercial crewed flybys. While the Artemis Accords have established an international consortium of countries seeking to mitigate interference between operations on the Moon, a number of unaddressed policy issues remain that may be critical to lunar operations. In this lightning talk, we build upon NASA’s Of-fice of Technology, Policy, and Strategy’s Sep-tember 2022 Report “Lunar Landing and Oper-ations Policy Analysis” [1], to give an overview of policy questions that remain open, including: whether to prioritize certain landing locations or avoid certain scientifically valuable locations, design and coordination of safety zones, notifi-cation of other actors of potential dangers posed by landing, whether to avoid placing equipment in operationally valuable locations, and end-of-life disposal. We will also discuss how these policy implications could apply to planned missions.. References: [1] Swiney, G., and Hernandez, A. Lunar Landing and Operations Policy Analy-sis, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy, September 30, 2022 https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nasa-otps-lunar-landing-and-operations-policy-analysis-final-report_2.pdf

Therese Jones↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Overview of Policies Influencing Air Pollution from the Electricity Sector in South Asia

The electricity sector is a substantial source of air pollution and associated health problems in South Asia and elsewhere. Fossil-fueled power plants emit a wide variety of harmful pollutants. Those with the greatest health impacts are particulate matter and ozone. Once released into the atmosphere, there is no practical way to remove air pollutants, which means that policies designed to improve air quality have to limit the pollutants before release. However, tackling such pollution is challenging because developing economies also need to provide electricity as a basic necessity for their citizens and as an engine of economic growth. This report provides examples of policies impacting air pollution from the fossil-fuel electricity sector in the South Asian countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Some of this information was difficult to locate, so this is not a comprehensive study, but rather an overview or "scan" of the sector that includes examples of (1) policies that directly regulate air quality by limiting emissions from specific point sources (by restricting operating hours, for instance), and (2) indirect policies that incentivize or disincentivize polluting activities, such as policies to encourage fuel switching, for example. The report shows (1) the great variation among the policy instruments used in each country, (2) that many countries, especially those that have a mismatch between seasonal demand and resource availability, could improve energy security and reduce air pollution through increased cross-border electricity trade, and (3) some countries have contradictory policies (promoting both coal and renewables, for instance).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the Level of Inter-Sectoral Policy Integration for Governance in the Water–Energy Nexus: A Comparative Study of Los Angeles and Beijing

As concerns around water scarcity and energy security increase, so too has interest in the connections between these resources, through a concept called the water–energy nexus. Efforts to improve the integration of water and energy management and to understand their cross-sector relevance are growing. In particular, this paper develops a better empirical understanding on the extent to which governance settings hinder and/or enable policy coherence between the water and energy sectors through a comparative analysis of two case studies, namely, Los Angeles County, California, the United States, and the city of Beijing, China. This paper examines the extent to which the institutional context enables policy coordination within (vertically) and between (horizontally) the water and energy sectors in Beijing and Los Angeles. To do so, we propose a framework for analyzing policy integration for the water energy nexus based on environmental policy integration (EPI). The results highlight the multiple and flexible approaches of EPI in nexus governance, not least with regards to horizontal and vertical policy integration, but also in terms of explicit (i.e., intended) and implicit (i.e., unintended) coordination. The level of nexus-focused policy integration is highly dependent on the motivation at the local context and the criteria to evaluate policy success in each sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Knowledge brokering on emissions modelling in Strategic Environmental Assessment of Estonian energy policy with special reference to the LEAP model

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) serves as a platform for bringing together researchers, policy developers and other stakeholders to evaluate and communicate significant environmental and socio-economic effects of policies, plans and programmes. Quantitative computer models can facilitate knowledge exchange between various parties that strive to use scientific findings to guide policy-making decisions. The process of facilitating knowledge generation and exchange, i.e. knowledge brokerage, has been increasingly explored, but there is not much evidence in the literature on how knowledge brokerage activities are used in full cycles of SEAs which employ quantitative models. We report on the SEA process of the national energy plan with reflections on where and how the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model was used for knowledge brokerage on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers. Our main suggestion is that applying a quantitative model not only in ex ante, but also ex post scenario modelling and associated impact assessment can facilitate systematic and inspiring knowledge exchange process on a policy problem and capacity building of participating actors. - Highlights: • We examine the knowledge brokering on emissions modelling between researchers and policy developers in a full cycle of SEA. • Knowledge exchange process can evolve at any modelling stage within SEA. • Ex post scenario modelling enables systematic knowledge exchange and learning on a policy problem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Potential impacts of China's climate policies on energy security

Highlights: • We develop an energy security assessment framework in a 3E-integrated system model. • The potential relations between climate targets and energy security are examined. • Climate policy reduces risks of energy system in terms of main safety metrics. • The impact of emission budgets on energy diversity relies on the time scale options. • Co-benefits of energy security would improve the economics of climate policies. - Abstract: Energy security, as an indispensable constituent of economic security, has long been a top research priority, and the dynamics of energy security become particularly complicated with the involvement of climate change. In this work, we combined a one-sector integrated assessment framework with a series of well-proposed energy security metrics to extensively explore the unidirectional consistency between climate policy and energy security from the national perspective. Implementation of climate policy is generally beneficial for improving energy security. Specifically, climate policy helps to reduce the systematic risk of China's energy system according to the metrics of energy (oil) intensity, energy (oil) expenditures and per capita energy (oil) consumption independent of time scale options. As observed from the perspective of energy diversity, co-benefits arising from climate policy primarily emerge in the first half of this century, and they may gradually decline as emission constraints and the phasing out of fossil fuels are enhanced. Additionally, the macroeconomic costs required to reach China's committed carbon-peaking target might be far lower than the costs required to fulfill the emission budgets under the global 2-degree warming rise threshold. If the co-benefits of energy security are considered, the economics of climate policy is expected to significantly improve.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Enhanced Oblique Decision Tree Enabled Policy Extraction for Deep Reinforcement Learning in Power System Emergency Control

Deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms have successfully solved many challenging problems in various power system control scenarios. However, their decision-making process is usually regarded as black-boxes. Furthermore, how DRL models interact with human intelligence remains an open problem. Thus, this paper proposes a policy extraction framework to extract a complex DRL model into an explainable policy. This framework includes three parts: 1) DRL training and data generation. We train an agent for a specific control task and generate data, which contains the control policy of the agent. 2) Policy extraction. We propose an information gain rate based weighted oblique decision tree (IGR-WODT) for DRL policy extraction. 3) Policy evaluation. We define three metrics to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach. A case study for the under-voltage load shedding problem shows that the IGR-WODT presents a performance enhancement compared with DRL, weighted oblique decision tree, and univariate decision tree. The proposed policy extraction method could provide an intuitive explanation of the neural network decision-making process to the dispatchers when making final decisions on power grid operation. Also, the resulted rule-based controller could replace the deep neural network-based controller in many field edge devices with limited computing resources, providing comparable performance.

deep reinforcement learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

Policy Framework to Improve Mobility Efficiency and Electrify Transportation in Tonga

The Kingdom of Tonga, like many small island developing states, is heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels to meet its current energy needs, especially for transportation. The Kingdom has requested a policy framework that benefits its land transportation sector by saving cost and time, increasing resilience, and reducing petroleum and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This framework was developed by building on past work, namely the Tonga Energy Efficiency Master Plan 2020-2030 (TEEMP), the Tonga Energy Road Map 2021-2035 (TERMPLUS), and the Regional Electric Mobility Policy for Pacific Island Countries and Territories developed by the Pacific Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency (PCREEE). The strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats to Tonga's land transportation system were identified at stakeholder working group meetings in Tonga in June 2023. A set of appropriate policies that have been effective in relevant jurisdictions were then discussed and refined by the working group. The resulting 27 policies are defined according to intended outcomes, relationship to other proposed policies, applications in other relevant jurisdictions, hurdles to implementation, resilience impact, equity impact, and government revenue impact. Some of the policies are also accompanied by implementation recommendations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗