Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Risk-Informed Analysis of Accidents at Reactor Facilities with VVER

An accident with ‘rupture of steam line’ as the initial event was studied for a reactor facility with VVER-1000. A computational analysis was performed of different flow scenarios of an accident with singular and multiple failures of the safety systems. The realization probability and the consequences were evaluated for each accident sequence. The consequences of the accidents are ranked and the most instructive combinations of failures of systems and blockings are determined from the standpoint of risk. The presented method is based on multivariate calculations and an integrated combination of deterministic and probabilistic approaches to safety validation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Level-3 Probabilistic Safety Analysis VAB-3 as an NPP Safety Enhancement Stage

Questions pertaining to the development of reactors from the standpoint of the evolution of protection and emergency response systems for large radiation accidents, and development of probabilistic safety analysis at different levels are examined. Examples are presented of the calculation of quantitative characteristics of risk in an accident at a model NPP that show the possibility of using VAB-3 to evaluate the scale of countermeasures as a function of the level of intervention, their effectiveness as a function of the time of application and validation of countermeasures for an individual populated point. It is shown that the VAB-3 methodology must be developed in order to increase NPP safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Defect Detection of Industrial Radiography Images of Ammonia Pipes by a Sparse Coding Model

Pipeline transportation systems for liquid anhydrous ammonia require periodic inspections for pipe defects. Defects such as crack-like flaws, including those due to stress corrosion and fatigue crack growth and fatigue of welded joints, can be tested by in situ radiography testing (RT). It is required that the detection technique should reveal the defect region without any significant distortion. Imaging noise such as that due to radiation scattering reduces contrast over the whole or part of the image, causing a reduction in image quality. Various image processing methods can be utilized to improve the outcome of RT of pipes. The sparse coding model is a powerful contrast improvement algorithm, but it tends to eliminate imaging details, passing them off as noise. We present a novel implementation of the sparse coding model based on a probabilistic interpretation to improve defect detection in ammonia pipelines radiography images. The performance of this procedure was evaluated in radiographic images of defect and corrosion regions for different pipe types. For ammonia pipes, the technique was found to offer a significant improvement in defect detection while preserving imaging details.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Photochemical Kinetic Modeling of Degradation of Aqueous Polyvinyl Alcohol in a UV/H{sub 2}O{sub 2} Photoreactor

This study presents a photochemical kinetics model to describe the degradation of water-soluble PVA (Polyvinyl Alcohol) polymer in a UV/H{sub 2}O{sub 2} batch reactor. Under the effect of UV light, the photolysis of hydrogen peroxide into hydroxyl radicals can generate a series of polymer scission reactions. For a better understanding and analysis of the UV/H{sub 2}O{sub 2} process in the cracking of the PVA macromolecules, a chemical reaction mechanism of the degradation process and a relevant photochemical kinetics model are developed to describe the disintegration of the polymer chains. Taking into account the probabilistic fragmentation of the polymer, the statistical moment approach is used to model the molar population balance of live and dead polymer chains. The model predicts the PVA molecular weight reduction, the acidity of the solution, and hydrogen peroxide residual. In addition to previously published data collected in this laboratory, a new set of experiments were conducted using a 500 mg/L PVA aqueous for different hydrogen peroxide/PVA ratios for model validation. Measurements of average molecular weights of the polymer, hydrogen peroxide concentrations and pH of the PVA solution were determinant factors in constructing a reliable photochemical model of the UV/H{sub 2}O{sub 2} process. Experimental data showed a decrease in the PVA molecular weight and a buildup of the solution acidity. The experimental data also served to determine the kinetics rate constants of the PVA photochemical degradation and validate the model whose predictions are in good agreement with data. The model can provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of the design and operational variables.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Investigation of Size and Shape Dependencies of Phase Diagrams of the Ising Nanofilms and Nanotubes on the Honeycomb Lattice Using Cellular Automata Simulation Approach

Size and shape dependencies of phase diagrams of the Ising nanofilms and nanotubes on the honeycomb lattice are investigated by means of probabilistic cellular automata simulation based on Glauber algorithm. The values of reduced critical temperature, K{sub c} = k{sub B}T{sub c}/J (where k{sub B} and J are the Boltzmann constant and nearest-neighbor coupling, respectively), for both nanofilms and nanotubes, are obtained at the different sizes of the lattices and the dependency of K{sub c} to the number of layers is studied. By increasing the number of layers K{sub c} increases but for number of layer more than 8, the critical temperature increases very slowly. We have shown that between two isotropic nanotubes with the same number of spins, the ones with greater diameter (more spins on the edge) have larger critical temperature. For equal size of lattices, the obtained values of K{sub c} for nanotube are greater than the nanofilm, but for large sizes, this difference disappears.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Asymptotic Equivalence of Probability Measures and Stochastic Processes

Let P{sub n} and Q{sub n} be two probability measures representing two different probabilistic models of some system (e.g., an n-particle equilibrium system, a set of random graphs with n vertices, or a stochastic process evolving over a time n) and let M{sub n} be a random variable representing a “macrostate” or “global observable” of that system. We provide sufficient conditions, based on the Radon–Nikodym derivative of P{sub n} and Q{sub n}, for the set of typical values of M{sub n} obtained relative to P{sub n} to be the same as the set of typical values obtained relative to Q{sub n} in the limit n→∞. This extends to general probability measures and stochastic processes the well-known thermodynamic-limit equivalence of the microcanonical and canonical ensembles, related mathematically to the asymptotic equivalence of conditional and exponentially-tilted measures. In this more general sense, two probability measures that are asymptotically equivalent predict the same typical or macroscopic properties of the system they are meant to model.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

D-Guaranteed Discrimination of Statistical Hypotheses: a Review of Results and Unsolved Problems

We compare two sequential d-guaranteed tests and an optimal d-guaranteed test based on a fixed number of observations with respect to the average number of observations within the most accepted practical applications of Bayesian probabilistic models. We consider the sequential “first skipping” test, the sequential locally efficient test based on the score statistic, and the test based on a fixed number of observations that minimizes the necessary sample size. We study various characteristics of these tests connected with the number of observations within three probabilistic models, namely, the normal (ϑ, σ{sup 2}) distribution of the observed random variable and the normal a priori distribution of ϑ with fixed σ{sup 2}; the exponential distribution with the intensity parameter ϑ and the a priori gamma distribution of ϑ; and the Bernoulli sampling with the success probability ϑ and the a priori beta distribution of ϑ. We discuss the connection of the d-posterior approach with the compound decision problem as applied to the analysis of data provided by microchips (when the false discovery rate, or FDR, for short, is treated as the d-risk of the first kind). We present the vast data on characteristics of the mentioned tests obtained by the method of mathematical modeling in several tables. We discuss unsolved problems of the d-guaranteed discrimination of hypotheses with the minimal number of observations and approaches to their solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic Models of the Conservation and Balance Laws in Switching Regimes

A probabilistic representation is constructed for classical solution to the Cauchy problem for system of semilinear parabolic equations such that the second order terms with different coefficients enter in diagonal way, while the lower order terms enter in nondiagonal way. The systems of this kind arise as mathematical models of the parabolic conservation and balance laws and as mathematical models of dynamical systems with switching regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Games with Ordered Outcomes

We present a brief review of the most important concepts and results concerning games in which the goal structure is formalized by binary relations called preference relations. The main part of the work is devoted to games with ordered outcomes, i.e., game-theoretic models in which preference relations of players are given by partial orders on the set of outcomes. We discuss both antagonistic games and n-person games with ordered outcomes. Optimal solutions in games with ordered outcomes are strategies of players, situations, or outcomes of the game. In the paper, we consider noncooperative and certain cooperative solutions. Special attention is paid to an extension of the order on the set of probabilistic measures since this question is substantial for constructing the mixed extension of the game with ordered outcomes. The review covers works published from 1953 until now.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effects of the Electron Beam Welding Process on the Microstructure, Tensile, Fatigue and Fracture Properties of Nickel Alloy Nimonic 80A

The purpose of this study was to evaluate rotary bending high-cycle fatigue properties and crack growth of Nimonic 80A-based metal and electron beam-welded joints. All the tests were performed at room temperature. Fracture surfaces under high-cycle fatigue and fatigue crack growth were observed by scanning electron microscopy. Microstructure, hardness and tensile properties were also evaluated in order to understand the effects on the fatigue results obtained. It was found that the tensile properties, hardness and high-cycle fatigue properties of the welded joint are lower than the base metal. The fracture surface of the high-cycle fatigue shows that fatigue crack initiated from the surface under the high stress amplitude and from the subsurface under the low stress amplitude. The effect of the welding process on the statistical fatigue data was studied with a special focus on probabilistic life prediction and probabilistic lifetime limits. The fatigue crack growth rate versus stress intensity factor range data were obtained from the fatigue crack growth tests. From the results, it was evident that the fatigue crack growth rates of the welded are higher than the base metal. The mechanisms and fracture modes of fatigue crack growth of welded specimens were found to be related to the stress intensity factor range ΔK. In addition, the effective fatigue crack propagation thresholds and mismatch of welded joints were described and discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Minimax theorems in fuzzy metric spaces

A minimax theorem is a theorem providing conditions which guarantee that the max–min inequality is also an equality. The first theorem in this sense is von Neumann’s minimax theorem, which was considered the starting point of game theory. Since then, several alternative generalizations of von Neumann’s original theorem have appeared in the literature. Variational inequality and minimax problems are of fundamental importance in modern non-linear analysis. They are widely applied in mechanics, differential equations, control theory, mathematical economics, game theory, and optimization. The purpose of this paper is first to establish a minimax theorem for mixed lower–upper semi-continuous functions in fuzzy metric spaces which extends the minimax theorems of many von Neumann types. As applications, we utilize this result to study the existence problems of solutions for abstract variational inequalities and quasi-variational inequalities in fuzzy metric spaces and to study the coincidence problems and saddle problems in fuzzy metric spaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Quantum formalism for classical statistics

In static classical statistical systems the problem of information transport from a boundary to the bulk finds a simple description in terms of wave functions or density matrices. While the transfer matrix formalism is a type of Heisenberg picture for this problem, we develop here the associated Schrödinger picture that keeps track of the local probabilistic information. The transport of the probabilistic information between neighboring hypersurfaces obeys a linear evolution equation, and therefore the superposition principle for the possible solutions. Operators are associated to local observables, with rules for the computation of expectation values similar to quantum mechanics. We discuss how non-commutativity naturally arises in this setting. Also other features characteristic of quantum mechanics, such as complex structure, change of basis or symmetry transformations, can be found in classical statistics once formulated in terms of wave functions or density matrices. We construct for every quantum system an equivalent classical statistical system, such that time in quantum mechanics corresponds to the location of hypersurfaces in the classical probabilistic ensemble. For suitable choices of local observables in the classical statistical system one can, in principle, compute all expectation values and correlations of observables in the quantum system from the local probabilistic information of the associated classical statistical system. Realizing a static memory material as a quantum simulator for a given quantum system is not a matter of principle, but rather of practical simplicity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2018

Dosimetric Evaluation of Incorporating Patient Geometric Variations Into Adaptive Plan Optimization Through Probabilistic Treatment Planning in Head and Neck Cancers

Four-dimensional (4D) adaptive radiation therapy (ART) treatment planning is an alternative to the conventional margin-based treatment planning approach. In 4D ART, interfraction patient geometric variations, gathered from computed tomography (CT) or cone beam CT (CBCT) images acquired during the patient treatment course, are directly incorporated into the adaptive plan optimization using a probabilistic treatment planning method. The goal of the present planning study was to evaluate the dosimetric differences between 4D ART and conventional margin-based adaptive planning strategies for head and neck cancers. In addition, we examined whether the dose differences achieved with 4D ART would translate into clinically relevant toxicity reductions using the existing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic inference of reaction rate parameters from summary statistics

Here, this investigation tackles the probabilistic parameter estimation problem involving the Arrhenius parameters for the rate coefficient of the chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. This is achieved in a Bayesian inference framework that uses indirect data from the literature in the form of summary statistics by approximating the maximum entropy solution with the aid of approximate bayesian computation. The summary statistics include nominal values and uncertainty factors of the rate coefficient, obtained from shock-tube experiments performed at various initial temperatures. The Bayesian framework allows for the incorporation of uncertainty in the rate coefficient of a secondary reaction, namely OH + H 2 → H 2 O + H, resulting in a consistent joint probability density on Arrhenius parameters for the two rate coefficients. It also allows for uncertainty quantification in numerical ignition predictions while conforming with the published summary statistics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

Second-Order Stationary Solutions for Fermions in an External Coulomb Field

We have studied self-conjugate second-order equations with spinor wavefunctions for fermions moving in an external Coulomb field. For stationary states, the equations are characterized by separated states with positive and negative energies, which render probabilistic interpretation possible. For the Coulomb field of attraction, the energy spectrum of the second-order equation coincides with the spectrum of the Dirac equation, while the probability densities of states are slightly different. For a Coulomb field of repulsion, there exists an impermeable potential barrier with radius depending on the classical electron radius and on the electron energy. The existence of the impermeable barrier does not contradict the results of experiment for determining the inner electron structure and does not affect (in the lowest order of perturbation theory) the Coulomb electron scattering cross section. The existence of the impermeable barrier can lead to positron confinement in supercritical nuclei with Z ≥ 170 in case of realization of spontaneous emission of vacuum electron–positron pairs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗