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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Propagation method and planting density influence canopy developmental transition and biomass productivity in Miscanthus × giganteus

Understanding how establishment practices influence the mechanisms underlying Miscanthus × giganteus (miscanthus) productivity and canopy development is critical for optimizing management. Data was collected during the juvenile (2011–2013) and mature (2024) phases of a long-term field experiment established in Urbana, Illinois, to evaluate the effects of propagation method (plug propagation [PP] and rhizome propagation [RP]), planting density (1.0, 0.75, and 0.25 plants m⁻²), and nitrogen application (0 and 67 kg N ha⁻¹) on end-of-season biomass yield, tiller mass, tiller density, and tiller height. Linear regression models identified the dominant predictors of yield across stand ages and management regimes. Planting density, nitrogen (N) application, and propagation method significantly influenced early yield and canopy development. During the juvenile phase, biomass yield was driven by tiller density due to canopy expansion; in the mature phase, yield became driven by tiller mass. The PP plots produced higher tiller density than the RP plots, resulting in faster canopy closure and higher juvenile-phase yields. Rhizome-propagated (RP) plots produced lower tiller density, but individual tillers were 3.3–6.4 g tiller −1 heavier than PP tillers. After the canopy reached equilibrium, the PP and RP yields were similar because greater RP tiller mass compensated for its lower tiller density. Higher planting density resulted in greater yield and tiller density during the second year (2012), but this effect was absent from the third year (2013) onward. In the juvenile phase, N fertilization enhanced yield by 1.6–3.4 Mg ha −1 . Initiating fertilization in 2013 on unfertilized plots produced biomass similar to that in fertilized plots, suggesting yield recovery in the mature phase. These findings revealed that establishment strategies, including propagation method and planting density, influence juvenile miscanthus canopy development and productivity, transitioning from tiller-density- to mass-dominated yields, but not mature phase productivity.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forest aboveground biomass estimation through integration of sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 time series: assessing models trained on GEDI and field inventory benchmarks

Accurate and spatially explicit forest Aboveground Biomass (AGB) mapping through remote sensing is critical for quantifying terrestrial carbon stocks and informing effective forest management strategies. However, AGB estimation in dense forests with complex terrain remains challenging due to satellite sensor signal saturation problem (saturation issue occurs in high biomass forests), structural complexity, and limited ground truth for calibration. This study presents a novel framework that integrates multi-temporal Sentinel-2 optical imagery, ALOS PALSAR-2 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data, and topographic variables with explainable Machine Learning to map AGB across mountainous forests within subtropical and temperate oceanic climate zones of Mexico. We evaluate the effects of temporal granularity and sensor synergy by comparing multiple temporal inputs and sensor configurations (Sentinel-2, PALSAR-2, and their fusion), and assess model performance using two reference datasets: NASA GEDI LiDAR-derived biomass and Mexico’s National Forest and Soil Inventory (INFyS). Our results showed that models trained on INFyS consistently outperformed those trained on GEDI, highlighting limitations in GEDI’s reliability in biomass estimates within this study region. Furthermore, the integration of Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 provided improved predictions compared to single-sensor models, particularly when combined with temporally explicit yearly statistics. The best-performing model, which was trained on INFyS data, and considered both Sentinel-2 and PALSAR-2 yearly statistics, as well as topographic variables, achieved an R2 of 0.64, RMSE of 51.10 Mg/ha, and relative RMSE (rRMSE) of 58.69%. Explainable ML analysis identified Sentinel-2 spectral indices and topographic features as key predictors, while PALSAR-2 metrics provided complementary information, partially mitigating saturation effects in high-biomass areas. Specifically, integrating both sensors substantially improved AGB estimation in high biomass forest (≥200 Mg/ha), yielding 98% gains over optical-only model, with resulting estimates exceeding GEDI L4B by 29% and ESA-CCI-BIOMASS by 174%. Terrain-stratified analysis indicated close agreement with GEDI in low-slope areas, with increasing divergence as slope steepness increased, while estimates remained consistently higher than ESA-CCI-BIOMASS across all slope classes. The proposed approach advances multi-sensor fusion and temporal feature engineering for AGB mapping using open-access satellite datasets, providing a scalable and reproducible framework for annual biomass monitoring in topographically complex mountainous forests. The resulting 25 m resolution biomass product has the potential to provide spatially detailed information for forest monitoring and may support applications in carbon accounting and forest management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Arm and shoulder muscle segmentation in axial MRI with UNet deep learning model

Quantifying individual upper-limb muscle volumes from MRI provides key insight into muscle-specific strength, deficits, and adaptations. Manual delineation is the gold standard but time‑intensive, and the performance of current deep learning approaches, particularly for small or anatomically complex muscles, remains incompletely characterized. We evaluated a state‑of‑the‑art deep learning framework across the entire upper limb and analyzed factors governing segmentation performance, with attention to the forearm. Three previously published MRI datasets (1.5 T, 3D GRE T1‑weighted; total n = 39) spanning young, middle‑aged, and older adults were curated and quality‑checked, including expert manual segmentations for 31 muscles. Following multiclass mask reconstruction, we trained three 3D nnU‑Net multiclass models matched to the muscle subsets present across datasets, using five‑fold cross‑validation and a composite Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) + cross entropy loss. Segmentation accuracy was assessed with DSC. Performance varied across muscles (mean DSC = 0.806 ± 0.098), ranging from 0.920 (Deltoid) to 0.461 (Extensor pollicis brevis). In uncertainty‑weighted regressions, muscle volume was positively associated with DSC (R2 = 0.36, p < 0.001), whereas training segmentation count and muscle orientation showed negligible associations (R2 ≤ 0.06). A weighted mixed‑effects model identified volume as the strongest evaluated predictor, explaining 23.9% of variance in DSC; orientation and training count each contributed <1%, leaving 61.5% unexplained. These results indicate that deep learning–based segmentation can accurately quantify muscle volume for many upper‑limb muscles but remains constrained for small, low‑contrast forearm muscles.

Gillespie, Samuel↗
DOE OSTI2024

SDYN-GANs: Adversarial learning methods for multistep generative models for general order stochastic dynamics

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of dynamics of nth-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. From observations of trajectory samples, we introduce methods for learning long-time predictors and stable representations of the dynamics. Our approaches use discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using both conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. Our adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

• Artificial intelligence (AI) / machine learning ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data driven investigation to understand the influence of total solids on biological biogas upgrading

In situ biogas upgrading achieves CO 2 conversion to CH 4 via hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis; however, gas-liquid mass transfer constraints limit the upgrading performance. Recognizing that optimization studies often underrepresent the effects of total solids (TS) and organic loading rate (OLR), this study undertook a holistic, statistics driven assessment of operating conditions for in situ H 2 assisted biogas upgrading, centering the analysis on TS and OLR. A dataset of 31 studies was compiled and comprised 99 observations. A rigorous analytical framework was employed, combining data standardization, fixed- and random-effects (REML) weighted regressions with cluster-robust errors, stratified analyses, and machine learning. Mixed-effects meta regression indicated that TS was the main factor explaining differences of methane fraction (CH 4 %) when considering the between studies heterogeneity. Focusing on a near-stoichiometric subset (H 2 /CO 2 ≈ 4:1), TS remained significant. Stratified results showed a stronger negative relationship between TS and CH 4 % in UASB reactors than in CSTRs, with a negative effect under mesophilic conditions and no significant effect under thermophilic conditions. A Random Forest model corroborated the statistical findings, consistently ranking H 2 /CO 2 ratio, OLR, TS, and hydrogen injection rate (HIR) as the most influential predictors. These findings delineate trends across increasing TS levels, particularly between 1% and 10%, and provide preliminary insights for TS above 15% in in situ biogas upgrading. They further provide insights for the influence of TS by reactor type and temperature, thereby advancing the evidence base for implementing biological CO 2 conversion to CH 4 in practice.

In situ biogas upgrading↗
DOE OSTI2024

APOA2 increases cholesterol efflux capacity to plasma HDL by displacing the C-terminus of resident APOA1

The ability of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) to promote cellular cholesterol efflux is a more robust predictor of cardiovascular disease protection than HDL-cholesterol levels in plasma. Previously, we found that lipidated HDL containing both apolipoprotein A-I (APOA1) and A-II (APOA2) promotes cholesterol efflux via the ATP-binding cassette transporter (ABCA1). In the current study, we directly added purified, lipid-free APOA2 to human plasma and found a dose-dependent increase in whole plasma cholesterol efflux capacity. APOA2 likewise increased the cholesterol efflux capacity of isolated HDL with the maximum effect occurring when equal masses of APOA1 and APOA2 coexisted on the particles. Follow-up experiments with reconstituted HDL corroborated that the presence of both APOA1 and APOA2 were necessary for the increased efflux. Using limited proteolysis and chemical cross-linking mass spectrometry, we found that APOA2 induced a conformational change in the N- and C-terminal helices of APOA1. Using reconstituted HDL with APOA1 deletion mutants, we further showed that APOA2 lost its ability to stimulate ABCA1 efflux to HDL if the C-terminal domain of APOA1 was absent, but retained this ability when the N-terminal domain was absent. Based on these findings, we propose a model in which APOA2 displaces the C-terminal helix of APOA1 from the HDL surface which can then interact with ABCA1—much like it does in lipid-poor APOA1. These findings suggest APOA2 may be a novel therapeutic target given this ability to open a large, high-capacity pool of HDL particles to enhance ABCA1-mediated cholesterol efflux.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of the fatigue threshold behavior of UHMWPE

Ultra-high-molecular-weight-polyethylene (UHMWPE) has been the material of choice for bearings in total joint replacements (TJRs) for decades as a result of its excellent wear resistance, chemical inertness, energetic toughness, low friction, and biocompatibility. Utilization of this polymer in orthopedic devices requires oxidation, wear, and fatigue resistance. Balancing these important properties by tailoring processing techniques and modulating microstructural features has been an ongoing endeavor in the field. Research into the clinical applications of UHMWPE has primarily focused on the challenges of wear and oxidation while studies into the realm of fatigue have been more limited. Literature gaps exist in fully understanding the fatigue crack initiation near notches or propagation of small existing flaws in UHMWPE used in TJRs. In particular, the characterization of the fatigue thresholds and near-threshold fatigue behavior of orthopedic grade UHMWPE has yet to be thoroughly explored. In this work, we characterized the fatigue crack arrest threshold of clinically-relevant UHMWPE formulations. Correlations between the fatigue thresholds and bulk mechanical properties as well as microstructural properties were examined across these medical resins. The important role played by crosslinking in influencing the fatigue performance of UHMWPE is highlighted in this study. In addition, it is established that J-integral fracture toughness is the best predictor of fatigue thresholds and could possibly be used as a stand-in metric for fatigue performance if thresholds cannot be directly ascertained. Finally, this study corroborates that the true constitutive parameters best describe the mechanical behavior of UHMWPE.

Cross-linking↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low Peripheral Blood Counts and Elevated Proinflammatory Cytokines Signal a Poor CD19 Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-cell Response in Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

CD19 chimeric antigen receptor T-cell (CAR-T) therapy has significantly improved outcomes for patients with relapsed/refractory B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (R/R B-ALL). However, approximately 20% of patients fail to achieve a complete remission (CR), and some develop severe, life-threatening toxicities. Understanding the biological mechanisms underlying both dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity is essential for optimizing patient management and improving therapeutic efficacy. This study aimed to (1) characterize cytokine profiles associated with dysfunctional responses and severe toxicity following CAR-T infusion, (2) examine the timing and trajectory of cytokine changes in relation to treatment outcomes, and evaluate potential strategies for mitigating toxicity and treatment failure. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of serum cytokine profiles in 86 adult and pediatric patients undergoing autologous CD19 CAR-T therapy for B-ALL. Patients were categorized into three groups: (1) Dysfunctional response—Patients who failed to achieve a minimal residual disease-negative CR (MRD-CR) by Day 63 or who experienced recurrence of CD19+ disease in the setting ongoing CAR-T cell detection before Day 63. (2) Functional response with severe cytokine release syndrome (CRS) and/or neurotoxicity (NTX)—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who experienced grade 3 or higher CRS or NTX. (3) Functional response without severe CRS or NTX—Patients with best response of MRD-CR by Day 63 who did not experience grade =3 CRS or NTX. Cytokine levels were measured during the first-week postinfusion and correlated with treatment efficacy, toxicity outcomes, complete blood counts, and CAR-T expansion dynamics. This analysis aimed to better understand how cytokine profiles relate to patient outcomes and immune responses in CAR-T therapy. Patients with dysfunctional response exhibited decreased neutrophils, platelets, and levels of granulocytic cytokines (suggestive of low bone marrow reserve) alongside elevated pro-inflammatory cytokines by Day 1. Functional response with severe toxicity patients showed a progressive rise in proinflammatory cytokines, reaching similar levels to dysfunctional response patients by Day 7. We observed that high cytokines at both the Day 1 and Day 7 time points were associated with poor survival. These findings remained significant when adjusting for high disease burden, a known predictor of severe inflammatory toxicity and lack of response. Early post-CAR-T infusion inflammation is associated with both dysfunctional response and severe toxicity—even after adjusting for disease burden. This suggests that inflammation, in addition to disease burden, plays a role in determining patient outcome. Therefore, strategies aimed at reducing the pro-inflammatory state prior to or early after CAR-T cell infusion may improve outcomes for R/R B-ALL patients.

Serum cytokines↗
DOE OSTI2025

Flexibility of oxygen sublattice and hydrogen bond length predict proton mobility in ternary metal oxides

Discovery of fast proton conductors is important for advancing clean energy technologies. This requires a better understanding of proton migration mechanisms. While structural and chemical traits of ternary metal oxides have been related to proton migration barriers, lattice dynamical effects have not been resolved quantitatively. Here, in this work, we introduce a phonon-based dynamic descriptor, termed ‘‘thermal O…O fluctuation,’’ quantifying the flexibility of donor-acceptor oxide-ion pairs. This enables direct comparison of O-sublattice flexibility across diverse metal oxides. Using regression models, we ranked physical descriptors as predictors of proton mobility, finding that H-bond length and thermal O…O fluctuation were the strongest descriptors. Further analysis revealed a critical O…O spacing of 2.4 A˚ at the transition state, which is easier to reach by more flexible donor-acceptor pairs, enabling facile proton transfer. Our results demonstrate oxygen sublattice flexibility as a dynamic descriptor and provide guiding principles for enhancing proton mobility in ternary metal oxides.

diffusivity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of fertilization on the dynamics of energy use in wheat

Plant energy use is fundamental to plant survival and growth. However, we still lack effective means to quantify plant energy use strategies. This study introduced a concept quantifying the light level at which photochemical and non-photochemical energy use in plants are in equilibrium — the photochemical compensation point (PCCP) which can be determined with chlorophyll fluorescence measurements. We used winter wheat as a test case to explore the dynamics of PCCP and its physiological and biochemical regulations. Winter wheat PCCP decreased significantly across growth stages from jointing to grain filling. Long-term nitrogen and phosphate (NP) fertilization significantly increased PCCP, whereas potassium (K) and manure (M) fertilizer supplementation had negligible effects. PCCP exhibited significant positive correlations with leaf thickness, leaf P and sulfur (S), and stomatal conductance (gs) across all growth stages. All manure-amended treatments exhibited positive correlations of PCCP with leaf N, P, K and gs, and negative correlations with leaf calcium (Ca). Random forest analysis revealed that gs was the most significant predictor of PCCP variation, followed by leaf P, iWUE, and leaf thickness across all treatments. We suggest that plant energy use strategies are strongly coupled with plant water use strategies and nutrient availability through a complex interplay of effects on physiological and biochemical traits.

energy allocation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contributions of vegetation heterogeneity within tower footprint to CO 2 flux estimations through graph neural network modeling

Net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (Fc) measured directly by eddy covariance towers is based on various assumptions, including large, flat and homogenous land cover type. In reality, often a tower site is not large enough for flux measurements, and landscapes consist of patches of different land cover types within the flux footprint. In addition, some portions of fluxes are contributed by different cover types when a footprint exceeds the size of the target ecosystem. The contributions of non-dominant patches to Fc are often ignored. Here, in this study, we propose a novel integrated modeling framework that combines random forest (RF) and XGBoost with a residual correction module based on a deep graph convolutional network (DeeperGCN) to simulate Fc for seven flux measurement sites in southwest Michigan. High-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices, soil properties, meteorological variables, and footprint-weighted spatial features were used as model inputs at three spatial resolutions (10 m, 20 m, 30 m), and their importance in predicting Fc with DeeperGCN was assessed. We found that residual correction using DeeperGCN significantly improved prediction accuracy, with the R 2 increasing from 0.9098 to 0.9479 for RF and from 0.9235 to 0.9433 for XGBoost. At site level, the maximum improvement in R 2 reached 0.1617. Paired t-tests confirmed that these improvements were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Among all predictors, leaf area index and incoming shortwave radiation emerged as the dominant drivers of spatial residual variation, followed by precipitation, relative humidity, and selected vegetation indices. The 20 m resolution yielded the best balance between model performance and computational efficiency. In conclusion, our modeling framework effectively captures both spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions, offering a robust solution for spatially explicit flux modeling in structurally diverse ecosystems beyond the study sites.

footprint model↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integrating very-high-resolution imagery, Sentinel-2 time-series data, and machine learning to map shrub fractional abundance across arid and semi-arid ecosystems in China

Shrub fractional abundance (SFA), the proportion of shrub cover per unit area, serves as a critical indicator of environmental aridity and ecosystem health in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly across the Mongolian steppe. However, large-scale SFA mapping in Mongolian steppe ecosystems remains challenging due to the small crown size of shrubs, their sparse distribution, and spectral overlap with coexisting low vegetation (e.g., grasses and herbs), which hinders accurate detection using coarser-resolution satellite data or traditional field surveys. To address these challenges, we developed a two-step approach that integrates very-high-resolution (VHR) imagery, time-series Sentinel-2 data, and deep learning techniques. First, we generated high-accuracy benchmark maps of individual shrub crowns from 0.5 m VHR imagery by combining manual segmentation with a hybrid deep learning framework (Dino V2 and convolutional neural networks). Second, we used these shrub crown maps as training data to build an XGBoost model for predicting SFA from 20 m Sentinel-2 time-series data, leveraging phenological information to improve estimation. We validated our approach across 70 sites (1km 2 each) in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, which is representative of Mongolian steppe ecosystems. From VHR imagery, we mapped 1.31 million shrub crowns with an accuracy of R 2 = 0.92. Scaling up with Sentinel-2 data yielded regional SFA maps with an R 2 = 0.60. Further SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis on the developed XGBoost model revealed that phenological metrics (particularly observations in early-May, mid-July, and late-September), which distinguish shrub phenology from that of other land cover types (e.g., grasses and bare soil), were the most influential predictors of SFA. Finally, our regional SFA maps uncovered unimodal relationships between shrub distribution and climate variables, peaking at mean annual minimum temperatures near 0 °C and annual precipitation around 200 mm. Collectively, these findings demonstrate how the integration of multi-source remote sensing and machine learning can overcome historical limitations in SFA mapping, enabling accurate, spatially continuous assessments across vast Inner-Mongolian steppe ecosystems. Our framework has the potential to be applied to other steppe ecosystems and dryland ecosystems across the Mongolian steppe and beyond, offering a foundation for improved monitoring and ecological impact assessments in the face of global climate changes.

Arid and semi-arid landscapes↗
DOE OSTI2025

4D Observations of the initiation of abnormal grain growth in commercially pure Ni

Abnormal grain growth (AGG), where a small fraction of grains grow faster than others, is critical to predict because it can significantly impact material properties. However, the mechanism behind AGG remains unclear. In this study, laboratory-based x-ray diffraction contrast tomography (LabDCT) is employed to non-destructively track the 3D microstructural evolution of high-purity nickel during the onset of AGG at 800 °C. The initial microstructure state is used to test hypothesized microstructure predictors of the initiation of AGG. The change in grain size was not related to the initial grain size or normalized integral mean curvature. Additionally, the grain boundary energy distributions of abnormal grains were indistinguishable from those of control groups exhibiting normal grain growth. However, the grains that later became abnormal exhibit large areas of asymmetric tilt boundaries that were previously found to be fast. This 3D microstructure dataset is useful to investigate new hypotheses for the initiation of AGG.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

E-scooter safety: How attitudinal factors influence risky behavior among shared e-scooter riders

In recent years, e-scooter usage for short-distance trips has grown rapidly. This surge in e-scooter use, combined with the high exposure of e-scooter riders to accident risk, has sparked concerns regarding e-scooter safety. Despite some studies focusing on e-scooter safety, little is known about how attitudinal factors lead e-scooter riders to engage in risky riding behaviors. In this paper, we developed a survey-based empirical model to identify the attitudinal factors influencing engagement in risky behaviors among e-scooter users. We used survey data collected from 420 shared e-scooter users in Chicago in 2022. The survey showed that 47.7% of respondents had experienced at least one collision or fall-off while riding e-scooters. We employed the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to examine the relationships between latent attitudinal factors and risky behavior engagement. Moreover, we conducted Permutation Multi-group Analysis (PMGA) to assess the moderating effect of socio-demographic factors within the estimated model. The findings suggest that riders’ unsafe riding attitude and riding confidence are the most influential factors shaping their risky behavior engagement. In addition, accident experience, infrastructure suitability, perceived enjoyment, traffic risk perception, and operational risk perception are among the other significant predictors. Among socio-demographic factors, gender, age, education, and car use frequency significantly influence riders’ engagement in risky behaviors. The results highlight the importance of infrastructure suitability and accident experience in analyzing e-scooter users’ riding behavior. The developed model advances our understanding of factors contributing to e-scooter riders’ risky behavior engagement. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and e-scooter vendors aiming to mitigate e-scooter users’ accident risk. Specifically, we recommend three safety countermeasures: (1) safety training programs to encourage a safer attitude, (2) practice-based initiatives to enhance riding confidence, and (3) infrastructure improvements, especially the expansion of bike lanes.

E-scooter↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparative modeling reveals the molecular determinants of aneuploidy fitness cost in a wild yeast model

Although implicated as deleterious in many organisms, aneuploidy can underlie rapid phenotypic evolution. However, aneuploidy will be maintained only if the benefit outweighs the cost, which remains incompletely understood. To quantify this cost and the molecular determinants behind it, we generated a panel of chromosome duplications in Saccharomyces cerevisiae and applied comparative modeling and molecular validation to understand aneuploidy toxicity. We show that 74%–94% of the variance in aneuploid strains’ growth rates is explained by the cumulative cost of genes on each chromosome, measured for single-gene duplications using a genomic library, along with the deleterious contribution of small nucleolar RNAs (snoRNAs) and beneficial effects of tRNAs. Machine learning to identify properties of detrimental gene duplicates provided no support for the balance hypothesis of aneuploidy toxicity and instead identified gene length as the best predictor of toxicity. Our results present a generalized framework for the cost of aneuploidy with implications for disease biology and evolution.

genic load↗
DOE OSTI2026

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microbial Proxies for Anoxic Microsites Vary with Management and Partially Explain Soil Carbon Concentration

Anoxic microsites are potentially important but unresolved contributors to soil organic carbon (C) storage. How anoxic microsites vary with soil management and the degree to which anoxic microsites contribute to soil C stabilization remain unknown. Sampling from four long-term agricultural experiments in the central United States, we examined how anoxic microsites varied with management (e.g., cultivation, tillage, and manure amendments) and whether anoxic microsites determine soil C concentration in surface (0–15 cm) soils. We used a novel approach to track anaerobe habitat space and, hence, anoxic microsites using DNA copies of anaerobic functional genes over a confined volume of soil. No-till practices inconsistently increased anoxic microsite extent compared to conventionally tilled soils, and within one site organic matter amendments increased anaerobe abundance in no-till soils. Across all long-term tillage trials, uncultivated soils had ~2–4 times more copies of anaerobic functional genes than their cropland counterparts. Finally, anaerobe abundance was positively correlated to soil C concentration. Even when accounting for other soil C protection mechanisms, anaerobe abundance, our proxy for anoxic microsites, explained 41% of the variance and 5% of the unique variance in soil C concentration in cropland soils, making anoxic microsites the strongest management-responsive predictor of soil C concentration. Our results suggest that careful management of anoxic microsites may be a promising strategy to increase soil C storage within agricultural soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗