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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of NASA’s MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States

This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC)U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRAtends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1)MERRAshows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska andKansas, which ismost likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over theGulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that the hurricane and winter seasons are contributing the most to these trend patterns in the southeastern United States. The increasing annual trend simulated by MERRA in the Gulf Coast region is due to an incorrect trend in winter precipitation extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Aerosol-induced changes in the vertical structure of precipitation: a perspective of TRMM precipitation radar

Our knowledge is still poor regarding the response of the precipitation vertical structure to aerosols, partly due to the ignorance of precipitation occurring at different spatial scales. A total of 6 years of collocated ground-based PM 10 and satellite-based (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, TRMM) radar data, along with ERA-Interim reanalysis, are used in this study to investigate the aerosol effects on three localized rain regimes (shallow, stratiform, and convective rain) over the Pearl River Delta region of China. A subjective analysis method is proposed to discriminate between the localized and synoptic-scale precipitations based on weather composite charts where daily averaged wind field at 850 hPa is overlaid with the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In general, average rain rate tends to be greater under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. But such potential aerosol effects are regime dependent: as the atmosphere becomes slightly polluted (PM 10 ≤38 µg m -3 ), the top 1 % radar reflectivity (Z) for all regimes initially increases, followed by continued increases and weak decreases for convective and stratiform/shallow rain regimes, respectively. As the atmosphere becomes much more polluted, such regime dependences of aerosol effects are more significant. From a perspective of the vertical Z structure, comparisons between polluted conditions (days with the highest third of PM 10 concentration) and clean conditions (days with the lowest third of PM 10 concentration) show that the convective rain regime exhibits a deeper and stronger Z pattern, whereas a much shallower and weaker Z pattern is observed for stratiform and shallow precipitation regimes. In particular, the top height of the 30 dBZ rain echo increases by ~29 % (~1.27 km) for the convective regime, but decreases by ~10.8 % (~0.47 km) for the stratiform regime. However, no noticeable changes are observed for the shallow precipitation regime. Impacts of meteorological factors are further studied on both rain top height (RTH) and the center of gravity of Z, including vertical velocity, vertical wind shear, convection available potential energy, and vertically integrated moisture flux divergence (MFD). The possible invigoration effect on convective precipitation seems dependent on wind shear, in good agreement with previous findings. Overall, the observed dependence of the precipitation vertical structure on ground-based PM 10 supports the notion of aerosol invigoration or suppression effect on cold or warm rain and adds new insights into the nature of the complex interactions between aerosol and various localized precipitation regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Measurement: Bridging from TRMM to GPM to 3-Hourly Precipitation Estimates - Report 7

Historically, multi-decadal measurements of precipitation from surface-based rain gauges have been available over continents. However oceans remained largely unobserved prior to the beginning of the satellite era. Only after the launch of the first Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellite in 1987 carrying a well-calibrated and multi-frequency passive microwave radiometer called Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) have systematic and accurate precipitation measurements over oceans become available on a regular basis; see Smith et al. (1994, 1998). Recognizing that satellite-based data are a foremost tool for measuring precipitation, NASA initiated a new research program to measure precipitation from space under its Mission to Planet Earth program in the 1990s. As a result, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a collaborative mission between NASA and NASDA, was launched in 1997 to measure tropical and subtropical rain. See Simpson et al. (1996) and Kummerow et al. (2000). Motivated by the success of TRMM, and recognizing the need for more comprehensive global precipitation measurements, NASA and NASDA have now planned a new mission, i.e., the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. The primary goal of GPM is to extend TRMM's rainfall time series while making substantial improvements in precipitation observations, specifically in terms of measurement accuracy, sampling frequency, Earth coverage, and spatial resolution. This report addresses four fundamental questions related to the transition from current to future global precipitation observations as denoted by the TRMM and GPM eras, respectively.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗
NASA NTRS2006

Precipitation links (PrecipLinks) - a prototype directory for precipitation information

This poster describes a web directory of research oriented precipitation links. In this era of sophisticated search engines and web agents, it might seem counterproductive to establish such a directory of links. However, entering precipitation into a search engine like google will yield over one million hits. To further exacerbate this situation many of the returned links are dead, duplicates of other links, incomplete, or only marginally related to research precipitation or even the broader precipitation area. Sometimes connecting the linked URL causes the browser to lose context and not be able to get back to the original page. Even using more sophisticated search engines query parameters or agents while reducing the overall return doesn't eliminate all of the other issues listed. As part of the development of the measurement-based Precipitation Processing System (PPS) that will support Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 7 reprocessing and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission a precipitation links (PrecipLinks) facility is being developed. PrecipLinks is intended to share locations of other sites that contain information or data pertaining to precipitation research. Potential contributors can log-on to the PrecipLinks website and register their site for inclusion in the directory. The price for inclusion is the requirement to place a link back to PrecipLinks on the webpage that is registered. This ensures that users will be able to easily get back to PrecipLinks regardless of any context issues that browsers might have. Perhaps more importantly users while visiting one site that they know can be referred to a location that has many others sites with which they might not be familiar. PrecipLinks is designed to have a very flat structure. This poster summarizes these categories (information, data, services) and the reasons for their selection. Providers may register multiple pages to which they wish to direct users. However, each page may be attached to only one of these categories. Each page to which they refer users will also have a return link to PrecipLinks. The poster describes the operation of the system both the automated and the human processes. It also provides images for the various steps in the registration and use.

Velanthapillia, Balendran↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Relationships Between Insoluble Precipitation Residues, Clouds, and Precipitation Over California's Southern Sierra Nevada During Winter Storms

Ice formation in orographic mixed-phase clouds can enhance precipitation and depends on the type of aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INP). The resulting precipitation from these clouds is a viable source of water, especially for regions such as the California Sierra Nevada. Thus, a better understanding of the sources of INP that impact orographic clouds is important for assessing water availability in California. This study presents a multi-site, multi-year analysis of single particle insoluble residues in precipitation samples that likely influenced cloud ice and precipitation formation above Yosemite National Park. Dust and biological particles represented the dominant fraction of the residues (64% on average). Cloud glaciation, determined using GOES satellite observations, not only depended on high cloud tops (greater than 6.2 km) and low temperatures (less than -26 C), but also on the composition of the dust and biological residues. The greatest prevalence of ice-phase clouds occurred in conjunction with biologically-rich residues and mineral dust rich in calcium, followed by iron and aluminosilicates. Dust and biological particles are known to be efficient INP, thus these residues are what likely influenced ice formation in clouds above the sites and subsequent precipitation quantities reaching the surface during events with similar meteorology. The goal of this study is to use precipitation chemistry information to gain a better understanding of the potential sources of INP in the south-central Sierra Nevada, where cloud-aerosol-precipitation interactions are under-studied and where mixed-phase orographic clouds represent a key element in the generation of precipitation and thus the water supply in California.

Creamean, Jessie M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty quantification and optimization of precipitating hydrometeor parameters for winter precipitation in a cloud microphysics scheme

The precipitating hydrometeor parameters used in cloud microphysics schemes carry inherent uncertainties. The quantification of these uncertainties, together with parameter optimization, can significantly improve precipitation forecasts. This study investigates the effects of 13 parameters in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Double-Moment 6-class (WDM6) microphysics scheme, which define the hydrometeor characteristics such as fall velocity–diameter and mass–diameter relationships, as well as the shape parameter of the drop size distribution for precipitating particles such as rain, snow, and graupel on simulated winter precipitation. A comparison between the model's pre-defined parameters and observations from the International Collaborative Experiments for the PyeongChang 2018 Olympic and Paralympic winter games (ICE-POP 2018) field campaign reveals that the fall velocity–diameter relationship for rain, the mass–diameter relationships for snow and graupel, and the shape parameters for all precipitating particles in the WDM6 scheme deviate from the median values observed by the two-dimensional video disdrometer (2DVD). To quantify parameter sensitivities, a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) of 256 simulations was conducted within parameter ranges constrained by 2DVD observations for three winter precipitation cases. Bayesian optimization was then applied to identify parameter sets that minimized the root mean square error (RMSE) for each case, achieving reductions of up to 30.2 %. These results demonstrate that ensemble-based uncertainty quantification and parameter optimization can help identify key parameters and provide a pathway to improving precipitation simulation performance. In addition, measurement sites can be strategically selected based on regions that show high sensitivity to variations in hydrometeor characteristic parameters.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2015

Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. Lastly, by examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Comparison Of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation Datasets For Projecting Changes In Extreme Precipitation In The San Francisco Bay Area.

Water resource managers planning for the adaptation to future events of extreme precipitation now have access to high resolution downscaled daily projections derived from statistical bias correction and constructed analogs. We also show that along the Pacific Coast the Northern Oscillation Index (NOI) is a reliable predictor of storm likelihood, and therefore a predictor of seasonal precipitation totals and likelihood of extremely intense precipitation. Such time series can be used to project intensity duration curves into the future or input into stormwater models. However, few climate projection studies have explored the impact of the type of downscaling method used on the range and uncertainty of predictions for local flood protection studies. Here we present a study of the future climate flood risk at NASA Ames Research Center, located in South Bay Area, by comparing the range of predictions in extreme precipitation events calculated from three sets of time series downscaled from CMIP5 data: 1) the Bias Correction Constructed Analogs method dataset downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid (12km); 2) the Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation method downscaled to a 1km grid; 3) a statistical model of extreme daily precipitation events and projected NOI from CMIP5 models. In addition, predicted years of extreme precipitation are used to estimate the risk of overtopping of the retention pond located on the site through simulations of the EPA SWMM hydrologic model. Preliminary results indicate that the intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase and flood the NASA Ames retention pond. The results from these estimations will assist flood protection managers in planning for infrastructure adaptations.

Storm↗
DOE OSTI2018

Role of Troposphere-Convection-Land Coupling in the Southwestern Amazon Precipitation Bias of the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1)

The Amazon forest plays an important role in the tropical circulation and global water and biogeochemical cycles. However, the common Amazon precipitation biases in global climate models undermine our ability to understand future changes in the Amazon and their global consequences. The Community Earth System Model exhibits a persistent wet season dry bias over the southwestern Amazon. The bias is also characterized by inaccurate diurnal timing and intensity of rainfall events. Analysis of a diverse set of simulations suggests that the bias originates from local processes. A known land model bias in the partitioning of surface energy fluxes is found not to contribute significantly to the rainfall bias. Key model processes are identified to be the low-level divergent circulation controlling horizontal moisture flow and the sensitivity of the modeled deep convection to the lower tropospheric moisture. The lower tropospheric moisture divergence dictates the spatiotemporal distributions of convective precipitation through parameterized entrainment mixing, which generally improves the rainfall diurnal cycle. However, it also limits convective precipitation over the areas with frequent and large-scale divergence in the lower troposphere. The southwestern Amazon is such an area, particularly in the late afternoon, although uncertainty exists in the low-level flow in the simulation and reanalyses. One way to sustain rainfall in the presence of low-level divergence is a convective trigger based on both the moisture and temperature changes by large-scale processes, which is shown to help in reducing the dry bias.

Sakaguchi, Koichi↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding ice cloud-precipitation properties of three modes of mesoscale convective systems during PECAN

This study analyzes the precipitation and ice cloud microphysical features of three common modes of linear mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) during the Plains Elevated Convection at Night (PECAN) campaign. Three cases, one for each linear MCS archetype (trailing stratiform (TS), leading stratiform (LS), and parallel stratiform (PS) precipitation), are selected. We focus primarily on analyzing ice cloud microphysical properties and precipitation rates over the classified convective core (CC) and stratiform rain (SR) regions, as well as the two stratiform regions that developed behind (SR1) and ahead (SR2) of the convective line relative to the storm motion. In the three selected cases, the ice water path (IWP) and precipitation rate (PR) have strong correlations in the CC, but not in the SR. In terms of the temporal evolution of the mean IWPs and PRs, both CC and SR IWPs, as well as CC PRs, reach peaks quickly, but take a longer time to dissipate than the increase period. For all three cases, both SR1 and SR2 IWPs are 20-70% of their corresponding CC values in both the LS and PS cases, and up to 95% for the TS case, while all of their PRs are only 7-25% of their CC values. These values suggest that the SR PRs may not only depend on IWPs, but also that the microphysical properties of ice particles such as habit and size distribution may play an important role. Utilizing cloud resolving simulations of these systems may provide better understanding of the physical meanings behind the results in the future.

Cui, Wenjun↗
DOE OSTI2020

Influence of soluble oligomeric aluminum on precipitation in the Al-KOH-H2O system

The role of oligomeric aluminate (Al(OH)4-) species in the precipitation of aluminum phases such as gibbsite (a-Al(OH)3) from aqueous hydroxide solutions remains unclear and difficult to probe directly, despite its importance to developing accurate predictions of Al solubility in highly alkaline systems. Precipitation in this system entails a transition from predominantly tetrahedrally coordinated Al species in solution to octahedrally coordinated Al in gibbsite. Here we report a quantitative study of dissolved Al in the Al-KOH-H2O system using a combination of molecular spectroscopies. We established a relationship between changes in 27Al NMR chemical shifts and the relative intensity of Raman vibrational bands, indicative of variations in the ensemble speciation of Al in solution, and the formation of unique contact ion pair interactions with the aluminate dimer, Al2O(OH)62 . A strong correlation between the extent of Al oligomerization and the amount of solvated Al was demonstrated by systematically varying the KOH:Al molar ratio. The concentration of dissolved oligomeric Al in solution also directly impacted the particle size and morphology of gibbsite; high concentrations of dimeric Al2O(OH)62-, yielded smaller and more numerous anhedral to subhedral gibbsite particles, while low concentrations yielded fewer and larger euhedral gibbsite platelets. The collective observations suggest a key role of the Al2O(OH)62- dimer in promoting gibbsite precipitation from solution, where the potassium ion-paired dimer possibly catalyzes a more rapid transformation of Al coordination from tetrahedral in solution to octahedral in gibbsite.

Dembowski, Mateusz↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Deep Eutectic Solvent Precipitation Synthesis of Metastable Zn 4 V 2 O 9

A precipitation method involving a deep eutectic solvent (DES)–a mixture of hydrogen bond donor and acceptor–is used to synthesize a ternary metal oxide. Without toxic reagents, precipitates consisting of Zn 3 (OH) 2 V 2 O 7 ·nH 2 O and Zn 5 (OH) 6 (CO 3 ) 2 are obtained by simply introducing deionized H 2 O to the DES solution containing dissolved ZnO and V 2 O 5 . Manipulation of the synthetic conditions demonstrates high tunability in the size/morphology of the two-dimensional nanosheets precipitated during the dynamic equilibrium process. According to differential scanning calorimetry and high-temperature powder X-ray diffraction, Zn 3 V 2 O 8 and ZnO obtained by the annealing of the precipitate are intermediates in the reaction pathway toward metastable Zn 4 V 2 O 9 . Intimate mixing of the metal precursors achieved by the precipitation method allows access to the metastable zinc-rich vanadate with unusually rapid heat treatment. Furthermore, the UV–vis and surface photovoltage spectra reveal the presence of sub-band gap states, stemming from the reduced vanadium (V 4+ ) center. Photoelectrochemical measurements confirm weak photoanodic currents for water and methanol oxidation. For the first time, this work shows the synthesis of a metastable oxide with the DES-precipitation route and provides insight into the structure–property relationship of the zinc-rich vanadate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗