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At least 91 records · Page 5

Testing the Hypothesis of Young Martian Volcanism: Studies of the Tharsis Volcanoes and Adjacent Lava Plains

We experienced much success in reaching our stated goals in our original MDAP proposal. Our work made substantial contributions towards an integrated understanding of the counting and calibration of crater data on Mars, and changing nature of the Martian surface influenced by craters, water, and wind, and their general relationship to Martian geothermal history. We accomplished this while being to responsive to the rapid changes in the field brought about by several key NASA missions that returned data during the life of the grant. Our integrated effort included three stages: The first major area of research (Crater Count Research) was conducted by Jennifer Grier (P.I.), Lazslo Keszthelyi (Collaborator), William Hartmann (Collaborator), with assistance from Dan Berman (Graduate student) and concerned the mapping and the collection of crater count data on various Martian terrains. The second major area of study (Absolute Age Calibration) was conducted by William Bottke (Co-I) at SWRI, and concerned constraining the nature of the Moon and Mars impactor populations to create better absolute age calibrations for counted areas. The third major area of study was the integration and leverage of this effort with ongoing related Mars crater work at PSI (Integrated and Continuing Studies - Older Volcanoes), headed by David Crown (PSI Scientist), assisted by Les Bleamaster (PSI Scientist) and Dan Berman (Graduate Student).

Grier, Jennifer A.↗

Circulating Hematopoietic Stem and Progenitor Cells in Aging Atomic Bomb Survivors

It is not yet known whether hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) are compromised in the aging population of atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors after their exposure nearly 70 years ago. To address this, we evaluated age- and radiation-related changes in different subtypes of circulating HSPCs among the CD34-positive/lineage marker-negative (CD34+Lin - ) cell population in 231 Hiroshima A-bomb survivors. We enumerated functional HSPC subtypes, including: cobblestone area-forming cells; long-term culture-initiating cells; erythroid burst-forming units; granulocyte and macrophage colony-forming units; and T-cell and natural killer cell progenitors using cell culture. We obtained the count of each HSPC subtype per unit volume of blood and the proportion of each HSPC subtype in CD34+Lin - cells to represent the lineage commitment trend. Multivariate analyses, using sex, age and radiation dose as variables, showed significantly decreased counts with age in the total CD34+Lin - cell population and all HSPC subtypes. As for the proportion, only T-cell progenitors decreased significantly with age, suggesting that the commitment to the T-cell lineage in HSPCs continuously declines with age throughout the lifetime. However, neither the CD34+Lin - cell population, nor HSPC subtypes showed significant radiation-induced dose-dependent changes in counts or proportions. Moreover, the correlations of the proportions among HSPC subtypes in the survivors properly revealed the hierarchy of lineage commitments. In conclusion, taken together, our findings suggest that many years after exposure to radiation and with advancing age, the number and function of HSPCs in living survivors as a whole may have recovered to normal levels.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Anomalies Correlation with Population Trends of the Eastern Towhee in the Mid-Eastern U.S.

The species of sparrow identified by foraging under dense thickets, the Eastern Towhee (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) resides in the Eastern United States, some populations either permanently living in the southeastern US or migratory populations living in the North. The mostly migratory Eastern Towhee has been experiencing population changes since the 1980s in the Eastern Seaboard. This species is increasing during the winter and decreasing during the summer, which is their breeding season. The Christmas Bird Count shows that in the winter, the Eastern Towhee populations have been increasing in their northern wintering range by 0.2625% in Maryland, 0.056% in West Virginia, 0.133% in New Jersey, 0.049% in Virginia, and 0.224% in Delaware from 1984-2019. The Breeding Bird Survey Data shows that in the summer, the Eastern Towhee populations have been declining in the Eastern United States by -4.0635% in Maryland, -3.073% in West Virginia, -15.0722% in New Jersey, -3.9375% in Virginia, and -6.3735% in Delaware from 1984-2015. The average climate anomalies in June range from -0.108 to 0.3705 degrees Celsius while the average climate anomalies in January range from 0.1395 to 0.5014 degrees Celsius. The Eastern Towhee are moving northward towards their northern wintering range during the winter and we explore the hypothesis of northward range shift in association with climate change. Our research displays how the behavior patterns of species are varying due to this stressor and how to better conserve species like the Eastern Towhee.

Mahlet Mesfin↗

Unveiling the gamma-ray source count distribution below the Fermi detection limit with photon statistics

The source-count distribution as a function of their flux, dN/dS, is one of the main quantities characterizing gamma-ray source populations. We employ statistical properties of the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) photon counts map to measure the composition of the extragalactic gamma-ray sky at high latitudes (|b|⩾30°) between 1 and 10 GeV. We present a new method, generalizing the use of standard pixel-count statistics, to decompose the total observed gamma-ray emission into (a) point-source contributions, (b) the Galactic foreground contribution, and (c) a truly diffuse isotropic background contribution. Using the 6 yr Fermi-LAT data set (P7REP), we show that the dN/dS distribution in the regime of so far undetected point sources can be consistently described with a power law with an index between 1.9 and 2.0. We measure dN/dS down to an integral flux of ∼2×10{sup −11} cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}, improving beyond the 3FGL catalog detection limit by about one order of magnitude. The overall dN/dS distribution is consistent with a broken power law, with a break at 2.1{sub −1.3}{sup +1.0}×10{sup −8} cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}. The power-law index n{sub 1}=3.1{sub −0.5}{sup +0.7} for bright sources above the break hardens to n{sub 2}=1.97±0.03 for fainter sources below the break. A possible second break of the dN/dS distribution is constrained to be at fluxes below 6.4×10{sup −11} cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} at 95% confidence level. The high-latitude gamma-ray sky between 1 and 10 GeV is shown to be composed of ∼25% point sources, ∼69.3% diffuse Galactic foreground emission, and ∼6% isotropic diffuse background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On The Ultimate Fate of Interplanetary Dust

Interplanetary dust is interesting both from a physical point of view and from the awareness that the population poses a substantial collision risk to manned and unmanned spacecraft alike. Insight into the time evolution of the population gives important insights into solar system formation and, we argue, will offer clues as to the behavior of solar cycles predating modern ways of viewing the sun (e.g., sun spot counting, magnetograms, etc.). In addition, knowing how the dust population moves under the variety of forces each grain experiences will inform and better prepare manned and robotic spacecraft missions to mitigate the risk posed by dust. With these aims in mind, we developed a simple dynamical model for dust motion based on the work of Czechowski and Mann [1]. A byproduct of that development is a clear analytic model that demonstrates how the interplay of the Poynting-Robertson and Lorenz perturbation forces on the Keplerian motion of charged dust grains around the Sun can result in dust populations that move inward, outward, or remain confined in annular rings about the Sun. The timing of any of these behaviors is strongly dependent on the physical properties of the grain (mass, charge and reflectivity) and the evolution of the Sun’s dipole field.

Force models↗

Forecasting distributed energy resources adoption for power systems

Failing to incorporate accurate distributed energy resource penetration forecasts into long-term resource and transmission planning can lead to cost inefficiencies at best and system failures at worst. We have developed an open-source tool that employs an advanced Bass specification to calibrate and forecast technology adoption. The advanced specification includes geographic clustering, exogenously estimated market size, and dynamic time steps. Training on historical adoption of rooftop photovoltaics at the U.S. county-level and using detailed techno-economic estimates, our model achieves a two-year average mean-absolute-percentage-error of 19% in predicting system counts at the county-level, weighted by population. Model error was negatively correlated with market maturity - the error was 12% for counties in states with at least 28 W-per-capita of installed capacity. The advanced specification significantly reduces unweighted forecasting percent error compared to a conventional Bass specification: from 196% to 25% for capacity and from 226% to 22% for system count.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Population statistics of faint stellar and non-stellar objects

A disc and halo population model is constructed to fit star counts and color data down to V approximately 23 at absolute value of b = 90 deg. This model is used to predict star counts and colors down to V approximately 30. Deviations from these extrapolated relationships provide constraints on the number of faint quasars and black dwarf stars. It is shown that extra-galactic globular clusters start contributing significantly to star counts at V approximately 25 and are more numerous than stars for V 31. Morphological studies of galaxies with approximately 0.5, were made with the space telescope. Significant constraints on theoretical models that describe the evolution of clusters of galaxies are provided.

Vandenbergh, S.↗

Galaxy evolution and formation

Results from the Hawaii imaging and spectroscopy deep survey are discussed. Cumulative galaxy counts now exceed 10 exp 6/deg. To B = 24 the bulk of these galaxies lie at low redshift. Flat spectrum sources constitute a fraction of about 30-40 percent of the sources at B = 24. There are not enough of these to explain the high number counts, but they are an exceedingly interesting population in their own right. It is argued that they are unlikely to lie at z of about 1, but could be either massive starbursters at z of about 2 - 3 or dwarf starbursting galaxies at very low redshift (less than approximately 0.1). In either case they constitute a major episode in galaxy formation.

Cowie, Lennox L.↗

Leveling coatings for reducing the atomic oxygen defect density in protected graphite fiber epoxy composites

Pinholes or other defect sites in a protective oxide coating provide pathways for atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit to reach underlying material. One concept for enhancing the lifetime of materials in low Earth orbits is to apply a leveling coating to the material prior to applying any reflective and protective coatings. Using a surface tension leveling coating concept, a low viscosity epoxy was applied to the surface of several composite coupons. A protective layer of 1000 A of SiO2 was deposited on top of the leveling coating, and the coupons were exposed to an atomic oxygen environment in a plasma asher. Pinhole populations per unit area were estimated by counting the number of undercut sites observed by scanning electron microscopy. Defect density values of 180,000 defects/sq cm were reduced to about 1000 defects/sq cm as a result of the applied leveling coating. These improvements occur at a mass penalty of about 2.5 mg/sq cm.

Jaworske, D. A.↗

Leveling coatings for reducing the atomic oxygen defect density in protected graphite fiber epoxy composites

Pinholes or other defect sites in a protective oxide coating provide pathways for atomic oxygen in low Earth orbit to reach underlying material. One concept of enhancing the lifetime of materials in low Earth orbit is to apply a leveling coating to the material prior to applying any reflective and protective coatings. Using a surface tension leveling coating concept, a low viscosity epoxy was applied to the surface of several composite coupons. A protective layer of 1000 A of SiO2 was deposited on top of the leveling coating, and the coupons were exposed to an atomic oxygen environment in a plasma asher. Pinhole populations per unit area were estimated by counting the number of undercut sites observed by scanning electron microscopy. Defect density values of 180,000 defects/sq cm were reduced to about 1000 defects/sq cm as a result of the applied leveling coating. These improvements occur at a mass penalty of about 2.5 mg/sq cm.

Jaworske, D. A.↗

Robotics

Earth's upper atmosphere is an extreme environment: dry, cold, and irradiated. It is unknown whether our aerobiosphere is limited to the transport of life, or there exist organisms that grow and reproduce while airborne (aerophiles); the microenvironments of suspended particles may harbor life at otherwise uninhabited altitudes[2]. The existence of aerophiles would significantly expand the range of planets considered candidates for life by, for example, including the cooler clouds of a hot Venus-like planet. The X project is an effort to engineer a robotic exploration and biosampling payload for a comprehensive survey of Earth's aerobiology. While many one-shot samples have been retrieved from above 15 km, their results are primarily qualitative; variations in method confound comparisons, leaving such major gaps in our knowledge of aerobiology as quantification of populations at different strata and relative species counts[1]. These challenges and X's preliminary solutions are explicated below. X's primary balloon payload is undergoing a series of calibrations before beginning flights in Spring 2012. A suborbital launch is currently planned for Summer 2012. A series of ground samples taken in Winter 2011 is being used to establish baseline counts and identify likely background contaminants.

Rothschild, Lynn J.↗

The Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey. XXVIII. Characterization of the Galactic White Dwarf Population

We use three different techniques to identify hundreds of white dwarf (WD) candidates in the Next Generation Virgo Cluster Survey (NGVS) based on photometry from the NGVS and GUViCS, and proper motions derived from the NGVS and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS). Photometric distances for these candidates are calculated using theoretical color–absolute magnitude relations, while effective temperatures are measured by fitting their spectral energy distributions. Disk and halo WD candidates are separated using a tangential velocity cut of 200 km s{sup −1} in a reduced proper motion diagram, which leads to a sample of six halo WD candidates. Cooling ages, calculated for an assumed WD mass of 0.6 M {sub ⊙}, range between 60 Myr and 6 Gyr, although these estimates depend sensitively on the adopted mass. Luminosity functions for the disk and halo subsamples are constructed and compared to previous results from the SDSS and SuperCOSMOS survey. We compute a number density of (2.81 ± 0.52) × 10{sup −3} pc{sup −3} for the disk WD population—consistent with previous measurements. We find (7.85 ± 4.55) × 10{sup −6} pc{sup −3} for the halo, or 0.3% of the disk. Observed stellar counts are also compared to predictions made by the TRILEGAL and Besançon stellar population synthesis models. The comparison suggests that the TRILEGAL model overpredicts the total number of WDs. The WD counts predicted by the Besançon model agree with the observations, although a discrepancy arises when comparing the predicted and observed halo WD populations; the difference is likely due to the WD masses in the adopted model halo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Real-Time Bioluminescent Tracking of Cellular Population Dynamics

Cellular population dynamics are routinely monitored across many diverse fields for a variety of purposes. In general, these dynamics are assayed either through the direct counting of cellular aliquots followed by extrapolation to the total population size, or through the monitoring of signal intensity from any number of externally stimulated reporter proteins. While both viable methods, here we describe a novel technique that allows for the automated, non-destructive tracking of cellular population dynamics in real-time. This method, which relies on the detection of a continuous bioluminescent signal produced through expression of the bacterial luciferase gene cassette, provides a low cost, low time-intensive means for generating additional data compared to alternative methods.

Close, Dan↗

Uniformly Ordered Binary Decision Algorithm for Benchmark Experiment Correlations in Whisper Validation

When performing a validation exercise for determining the upper subcritical limit of a nuclear criticality safety application, an analyst should select and perform a statistical analysis on a population of benchmark experiments that are neutronically similar to the application. The size of this population should be sufficiently large such that the statistical analysis has a high degree of confidence that the bias plus bias uncertainty (calculational margin) has been accurately quantified. A complication arises because many benchmark experiments share common components, leading to correlations in their measured effective multiplication factors. Correlations between benchmark experiments within the population reduces its predictive power. This motivates the need for methods that consider benchmark experiment correlations and ensure adequate statistical significance of results. The Whisper code is a statistical analysis pack- age that incorporates nuclear data sensitivity coefficients from MCNP to assess benchmark experiment similarity and then performs an extreme-value analysis to estimate the bias plus bias uncertainty. The original methodology in Whisper does not consider the effect of benchmark experiment correlations when making this estimation, and this summary proposes the uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm to address this shortcoming. The original methodology in Whisper computes similarity coefficients ck for an application compared to all benchmark experiments in its library and develops weighting factors for a selected population proportional to the ck values. The methodology can be interpreted as statistically emulating a validation exercise for a particular application where the weighting factors may be viewed as the likelihood that an analyst would include a particular benchmark experiment within the population. The effective sample size of the population is the expected or mean number of benchmark experiments in the population. The uniformly ordered binary decision algorithm identifies clusters of correlated benchmark experiments within the population and then computes adjusted weighting factors based on the magnitude of the correlation coefficients within the cluster to compute a reduced effective sample size accounting for the lower information content because of correlations. Benchmark experiments within the cluster are ordered randomly with equal probability and probabilistic decisions are made as to whether a benchmark. experiment within the cluster should treated as redundant with a previous one; if two redundant benchmark experiments are included, then the conservative worst case bias plus bias uncertainty is used and the pair is counted as a single benchmark experiment in the population. Results are provided for HEU solutions in a research version of the Whisper software using benchmark experiment correlations provided by DICE, the Database for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP). These show that there can be a significant increase in the bias plus bias uncertainty because the effective sample size is reduced, and therefore the algorithm, needing to meet sample size requirements, expands the benchmark experiment population by accepting less similar benchmark experiments that would have otherwise not been included.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Genetic models in applied physiology: selected contribution: effects of spaceflight on immunity in the C57BL/6 mouse. I. Immune population distributions

There are several aspects of the spaceflight environment that may lead to changes in immunity: mission-related psychological stress, radiation, and changes in gravity. On December 5, 2001, the space shuttle Endeavor launched for a 12-day mission to examine these effects on C57BL/6 mice for the first time. On their return, assays were performed on the spleen, blood, and bone marrow. In response to flight, there were no significant differences in the general circulating leukocyte proportions. In contrast, there was an increase in splenic lymphocyte percentages, with a corresponding decrease in granulocytes. There was an overall shift in splenic lymphocytes away from T cells toward B cells, and a decrease in the CD4-to-CD8 ratios due to a decrease in T helpers. In contrast, there were proportional increases in bone marrow T cells, with decreases in B cells. Although the blast percentage and count were decreased in flight mice, the CD34(+) population was increased. The data were more consistent with a shift in bone marrow populations rather than a response to changes in the periphery. Many of the results are similar to those using other models. Clearly, spaceflight can influence immune parameters ranging from hematopoiesis to mature leukocyte mechanisms.

Non-NASA Center↗

Star counts and galactic structure

Star counts are discussed as an aid in studies of galactic structure. Iterative computations using a method-of-color-bins to match numerical models with observational data are described. The star counts provide bounds for the luminosity function and the color-magnitude diagram and allow spheroid normalization in a copycat Galaxy model which posits a galaxy with a Population I disk and a Population II spheroid. Good agreement has been obtained between star counts predicted by the model and observed distributions, including color and magnitude ranges and direction. Modifications being considered for the model include consideration of the halo, a galactic bulge and a thick disk. Several galactic structural features which have yet to be modeled and which may be tractable to the copycat model corrected with star counts are identified.

Bahcall, John N.↗

Road exposure and the detectability of birds in field surveys

Road ecology, the study of the impacts of roads and their traffic on wildlife, including birds, is a rapidly growing field, with research showing effects on local avian population densities up to several kilometres from a road. However, in most studies, the effects of roads on the detectability of birds by surveyors are not accounted for. This could be a significant source of error in estimates of the impacts of roads on birds and could also affect other studies of bird populations. Using road density, traffic volume and bird count data from across Great Britain, we assess the relationships between roads and detectability of a range of bird species. Of 51 species analysed, the detectability of 36 was significantly associated with road exposure, in most cases inversely. Across the range of road exposure recorded for each species, the mean positive change in detectability was 52% and the mean negative change was 36%, with the strongest negative associations found in smaller‐bodied species and those for which aural cues are more important in detection. These associations between road exposure and detectability could be caused by a reduction in surveyors’ abilities to hear birds or by changes in birds’ behaviour, making them harder or easier to detect. We suggest that future studies of the impacts of roads on populations of birds or other taxa, and other studies using survey data from road‐exposed areas, should account for the potential impacts of roads on detectability.

Cooke, Sophia C.↗

A HYBRID MODEL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF GALAXIES AND ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI IN THE INFRARED

We present a comprehensive investigation of the cosmological evolution of the luminosity function of galaxies and active galactic nuclei (AGNs) in the infrared (IR). Based on the observed dichotomy in the ages of stellar populations of early-type galaxies on one side and late-type galaxies on the other, the model interprets the epoch-dependent luminosity functions at z {>=} 1.5 using a physical approach for the evolution of proto-spheroidal galaxies and of the associated AGNs, while IR galaxies at z < 1.5 are interpreted as being mostly late-type ''cold'' (normal) and ''warm'' (starburst) galaxies. As for proto-spheroids, in addition to the epoch-dependent luminosity functions of stellar and AGN components separately, we have worked out, for the first time, the evolving luminosity functions of these objects as a whole (stellar plus AGN component), taking into account in a self-consistent way the variation with galactic age of the global spectral energy distribution. The model provides a physical explanation for the observed positive evolution of both galaxies and AGNs up to z {approx_equal} 2.5 and for the negative evolution at higher redshifts, for the sharp transition from Euclidean to extremely steep counts at (sub-)millimeter wavelengths, as well as the (sub-)millimeter counts of strongly lensed galaxies that are hard to account for by alternative, physical or phenomenological, approaches. The evolution of late-type galaxies and z < 1.5 AGNs is described using a parametric phenomenological approach. The modeled AGN contributions to the counts and to the cosmic infrared background (CIB) are always sub-dominant. They are maximal at mid-IR wavelengths: the contribution to the 15 and 24 {mu}m counts reaches 20% above 10 and 2 mJy, respectively, while the contributions to the CIB are of 8.6% and of 8.1% at 15 {mu}m and 24 {mu}m, respectively. The model provides a good fit to the multi-wavelength (from the mid-IR to millimeter waves) data on luminosity functions at different redshifts and on number counts (both global and per redshift slices). A prediction of the present model, useful to test it, is a systematic variation with wavelength of the populations dominating the counts and the contributions to the CIB intensity. This implies a specific trend for cross-wavelength CIB power spectra, which is found to be in good agreement with the data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗