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Evaluation of pressure reconstruction techniques for Model Order Reduction in incompressible convective heat transfer

This paper compares pressure reconstruction strategies in Model Order Reduction for incompressible flows with convective heat transfer. The Navier-Stokes equation are reduced along with the passive scalar transport equation for the temperature using the POD-Galerkin technique. Six different pressure reconstruction methods are evaluated, two of which are novel to the best of the authors’ knowledge. Accurate pressure reconstruction is key to avoid error buildup in when solving for the conservation of linear momentum at the reduced level. The six approaches are compared using Direct Numerical Simulations of convective heat exchange processes in a 3D Backward Facing Step with a heated cylinder. Additionally, when comparing time-averaged metrics, we observe that the reconstruction methods that approximate the reduced pressure field using techniques borrowed from full order models (mechanical analogy, pressure Poisson, and velocity supremizers) yield higher errors than the methods that seek to stabilize the reduced systems (reduced residual stabilization, artificial divergence, and Uzawa operator).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Dynamic Mode Decomposition of Random Pressure Fields over Bluff Bodies

Fluctuating surface pressures on a bluff body exposed to a boundary layer flow generally are characterized as a spatiotemporally varying random field. In this paper, a dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) was applied to extract dominant features embedded in these random pressure fields. Utilizing an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, spatial modes and their temporal variations were grouped into different clusters at scales, e.g., macro, meso, and micro. A proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) of the experimental data was carried out to observe commonalities and distinctive perspectives each decomposition offers. Here, a comprehensive examination of the DMD/POD for their convergence criteria, data sufficiency, and modal components analysis was conducted. The physical interpretation of the spatiotemporal pressure field based on these decomposition schemes was discussed. At different scales, the DMD modes can capture the evolution of aerodynamic features, e.g., convection of vortices (or vortex tubes) and other structures. The distribution of energy among these three broad scales also reflects an energy cascade in pressure fluctuations akin to turbulence.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Novel Partitioned Approach for Reduced Order Model—Finite Element Model (ROM-FEM) and ROM-ROM Coupling

Partitioned methods allow one to build a simulation capability for coupled problems by reusing existing single-component codes. In so doing, partitioned methods can shorten code development and validation times for multiphysics and multiscale applications. In this work, we consider a scenario in which one or more of the “codes” being coupled are projection-based reduced order models (ROMs), introduced to lower the computational cost associated with a particular component. We simulate this scenario by considering a model interface problem that is discretized independently on two non-overlapping subdomains. Here we then formulate a partitioned scheme for this problem that allows the coupling between a ROM “code” for one of the subdomains with a finite element model (FEM) or ROM “code” for the other subdomain. The ROM “codes” are constructed by performing proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) on a snapshot ensemble to obtain a low-dimensional reduced order basis, followed by a Galerkin projection onto this basis. The ROM and/or FEM “codes” on each subdomain are then coupled using a Lagrange multiplier representing the interface flux. To partition the resulting monolithic problem, we first eliminate the flux through a dual Schur complement. Application of an explicit time integration scheme to the transformed monolithic problem decouples the subdomain equations, allowing their independent solution for the next time step. We show numerical results that demonstrate the proposed method’s efficacy in achieving both ROM-FEM and ROM-ROM coupling.

de Castro, Amy↗

Novel plasma actuator for mitigation of dynamic stall

A novel plasma actuator, the Linear Counter-flow using a Point Embedded Electrode (LCPEE), is developed for the prevention of dynamic stall for a sinusoidal pitching movement between α = 4° and α = 18°. The LCPEE is implemented on a NACA0012 airfoil and tested at a Reynolds Number of Re c = 2 × 105 and reduced frequency of k = π/16. Prior investigations using a standard linear actuator showed that the exposed electrode introduced perturbations passively which delayed dynamic stall when the actuator was off. For the LCPEE actuator, when turned off, there is least passive delay. When the LCPEE is turned on at St f = 50, the dynamic stall is prevented for the sinusoidal pitching motion of the airfoil. The LCPEE actuator is also tested for the same sinusoidal motion between α = 6° and α = 20°. Four cases are considered for the higher α range of motion: actuator off, actuator on at St f = 50 with a sinusoidal input waveform, actuator on at St f = 50 with a triangular input waveform, and actuator on at Stf = 100 with a sinusoidal input waveform. Specifically for the last case, experiment shows no flow reversal demonstrating the efficacy of LCPEE in controlling the dynamic stall. The effects of LCPEE on the flow energy distribution have also been studied by using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Do ambient shear and thermal stratification impact wind turbine tip-vortex breakdown?

Modern wind turbines experience uneven inflow conditions across the rotor, due to the ambient flow’s shear and thermal stratification. Such conditions alter the shape and length of turbine wakes and thus impact the loads and power generation of downstream turbines. To this end, understanding the spatial evolution of the individual wakes under different atmospheric conditions is key to controlling and optimising turbine arrays. With this numerical study we aim to obtain a better understanding of the fundamental physics governing the near-wake dynamics of wind turbines under shear and thermal stability, by examining their tip-vortex breakup mechanisms. Our approach considers scale-resolving simulations of a single turbine wake under a linear shear profile as well as the application of harmonic tip perturbations to trigger flow instabilities. For the subsequent analysis we use the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method to extract coherent structures from the flow, and we also calculate mean kinetic energy fluxes to quantify each coherent structure’s contribution to wake recovery. The wake’s helical spiral is found to hinder wake recovery for all studied ambient flow conditions, whereas the mutual inductance instability has positive MKE flux leading to an enhanced wake recovery. Finally, the ambient shear has the largest impact on the local MKE flux with respect to downstream location by changing the shape of the curve and location of extrema, whereas thermal stratification has only a minimal impact on the magnitude of the near-wake local MKE flux distribution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Greedy emulators for nuclear two-body scattering

Applications of reduced basis method emulators are increasing in low-energy nuclear physics because they enable fast and accurate sampling of high-fidelity calculations, enabling robust uncertainty quantification. Here, in this paper, we develop, implement, and test two model-driven emulators based on the (Petrov-)Galerkin projection using the prototypical test case of two-body scattering with the Minnesota potential and a more realistic local chiral potential. The high-fidelity scattering equations are solved with the matrix Numerov method, a reformulation of the popular Numerov recurrence relation for solving special second-order differential equations as a linear system of coupled equations. A novel error estimator based on reduced-space residuals is applied to an active learning approach (a greedy algorithm) to choosing training samples (“snapshots”) for the emulator and contrasted with a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) approach. Both approaches allow for computationally efficient offline-online decompositions, but the greedy approach requires many fewer snapshot calculations. These developments set the groundwork for emulating scattering observables based on chiral nucleon-nucleon and three-nucleon interactions and optical models, where computational speed-ups are necessary for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. Our emulators and error estimators are widely applicable to linear systems.

Bayesian methods↗

Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method Based Dynamic Load Model Reduction

Dynamic load models add significant complexity to bulk power system time-domain simulations. The complexity is due to the large number of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) introduced by the dynamic load components such as induction motors. It is challenging to derive reduced-order models (ROMs) for dynamic loads due to the nonlinear functions in their governing equations. This paper applies the discrete empirical interpolation method enhanced proper orthogonal decomposition (DEIM-POD) to approximate the full dynamic load model with the ROM that minimizes the projection error of the nonlinear functions in dynamic load ODEs onto their dominant modes. This approach only requires evaluation of nonlinear functions at selected observation points. The observation points selected by DEIM also provide information for screening critical load buses where dynamic load model parameters contribute the most to the accuracy of ROM across multiple contingencies. The proposed approach is validated on IEEE 9-bus, WECC 179-bus and 2384-bus Polish systems.

bulk power system↗

Production of Vanillin From Ferulic Acid by Pseudomonas putida KT2440 Using Metabolic Engineering and In Situ Product Recovery

Vanillin is the most in-demand flavouring compound in the world and because vanillin extracted from vanilla pods cannot meet the global demand, most vanillin on the market today is chemically synthesised. Increasing demands by consumers for natural ingredients have inspired efforts to develop vanillin derived from microbial sources. These efforts have been challenged by low titers, likely caused by the toxicity of vanillin to most microbial biocatalysts. In this study, we engineered a Pseudomonas putida KT2440-derived strain that accumulated vanillin from ferulic acid to 0.64 g/L. To increase the overall titre, we applied a hydrophobic polystyrene-based resin to vanillin-accumulating cultures, which enabled an increase in total vanillin recovery to an apparent titre of 3.35 g/L. This study demonstrates that P. putida can accumulate vanillin from ferulic acid to higher titers when vanillin is removed from the cultivation medium, mitigating its toxicity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Multifidelity Ensemble Kalman Filter with Reduced Order Control Variates

This work develops a new multi delity ensemble Kalman lter (MFEnKF) algorithm based on linear control variate framework. The approach allows for rigorous multi delity extensions of the EnKF, where the uncertainty in coarser delities in the hierarchy of models represent control variates for the uncertainty in ner delities. Small ensembles of high delity model runs are com- plemented by larger ensembles of cheaper, lower delity runs, to obtain much improved analyses at only small additional computational costs. We investigate the use of reduced order models as coarse delity control variates in the MFEnKF, and provide analyses to quantify the improvements over the traditional ensemble Kalman lters. We apply these ideas to perform data assimilation with a quasi-geostrophic test problem, using direct numerical simulation and a corresponding POD-Galerkin reduced order model. Numerical results show that the two- delity MFEnKF provides better analyses than existing EnKF algorithms at comparable or reduced computational costs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Convergence of Weak-SINDy Surrogate Models

In this paper, we give an in-depth error analysis for surrogate models generated by a variant of the Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics (SINDy) method. We start with an overview of a variety of nonlinear system identification techniques, namely SINDy, weak-SINDy, and the occupation kernel method. Under the assumption that the dynamics are a finite linear combination of a set of basis functions, these methods establish a linear system to recover coefficients. We illuminate the structural similarities between these techniques and establish a projection property for the weak-SINDy technique. Following the overview, we analyze the error of surrogate models generated by a simplified version of weak-SINDy. In particular, under the assumption of boundedness of a composition operator given by the solution, we show that (i) the surrogate dynamics converges towards the true dynamics and (ii) the solution of the surrogate model is reasonably close to the true solution. Finally, as an application, we discuss the use of a combination of weak-SINDy surrogate modeling and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to build a surrogate model for partial differential equations (PDEs).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Portal Venous Systemic Thrombosis in Patients with Cirrhosis Undergoing Splenectomy and Esophagogastric Devascularization

Objectives. The aim of the study is to develop a nomogram for predicting postoperative portal venous systemic thrombosis (PVST) in patients with cirrhosis undergoing splenectomy and esophagogastric devascularization. Methods. In total, 195 eligible patients were included. Demographic characteristics were collected, and the results of perioperative routine laboratory investigations and ultrasound examinations were also recorded. Blood cell morphological traits, including the red cell volume distribution width (RDW), mean platelet volume, and platelet distribution width, were identified. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were implemented for risk factor filtration, and an integrated nomogram was generated and then validated using the bootstrap method. Results. A color Doppler abdominal ultrasound examination on a postoperative day (POD) 7 (38.97%) revealed that 76 patients had PVST. The results of the multivariate logistic regression suggested that a higher RDW on POD3 (RDW3) (odds ratio (OR): 1.188, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.073–1.326), wider portal vein diameter (OR: 1.387, 95% CI: 1.203–1.642), history of variceal hemorrhage (OR: 3.407, 95% CI: 1.670–7.220), and longer spleen length (OR: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.001–1.029) were independent risk parameters for postoperative PVST. Moreover, the nomogram integrating these four parameters exhibited considerable capability in PVST forecasting. The nomogram’s receiver operating characteristic curve reached 0.83 and achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 0.711 and 0.848, respectively, at its cutoff. The nomogram’s calibration curve demonstrated that it was well calibrated. Conclusion. The nomogram exhibited excellent performance in PVST prediction and might assist surgeons in identifying vulnerable patients and administering timely prophylaxis.

Chen, Miao↗

An Alternative Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Approach Using Improved Subseasonal Precipitation Forecasts from the North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II

In this article, streamflow forecasting at a subseasonal time scale (10–30 days into the future) is important for various human activities. The ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a widely applied technique for subseasonal streamflow forecasting. However, ESP’s reliance on the randomly resampled historical precipitation limits its predictive capability. Available dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts provide an alternative to the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP. Prior studies found the predictive performance of raw subseasonal precipitation forecast is limited in many regions such as the central south of the United States, which raises questions about its effectiveness in assisting streamflow forecasting. To further assess the hydrologic applicability of dynamical subseasonal precipitation forecasts, we test the subseasonal precipitation forecast from North America Multi-Model Ensemble Phase II (NMME-2) at four watersheds in the central south region of the United States. The subseasonal precipitation forecasts are postprocessed with bias correction and spatial disaggregation (BCSD) to correct bias and improve spatial resolution before replacing the randomly resampled precipitation in ESP for streamflow predictions. The performance of the resulting streamflow predictions is benchmarked with ESP. Evaluation is conducted using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratios (FARs), as well as reliability diagrams. Our results suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to overall improved streamflow predictions due to added skills in winter and spring. Our results also suggest that BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation forecasts lead to improved predictions on the occurrence of high-percentile streamflow values above 75%. Overall, BCSD-corrected subseasonal precipitation has shown promising performance, highlighting its potential broader applications for river and flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Increased expression of fatty acid and ABC transporters enhances seed oil production in camelina

Abstract Background Lipid transporters play an essential role in lipid delivery and distribution, but their influence on seed oil production in oilseed crops is not well studied. Results Here, we examined the effect of two lipid transporters, FAX1 ( fatty acid export1 ) and ABCA9 ( ATP-binding cassette transporter subfamily A9 ) on oil production and lipid metabolism in the oilseed plant Camelina sativa . Overexpression (OE) of FAX1 and ABCA9 increased seed weight and size, with FAX1 -OEs and ABCA9 -OEs increasing seed length and width, respectively, whereas FAX1 / ABCA9 -OEs increasing both. FAX1- OE and ABCA9- OE displayed additive effects on seed oil content and seed yield. Also, OE of FAX1 and ABCA9 affected membrane lipid composition in developing pods, especially on phosphatidylcholine, phosphatidylethanolamine, and phosphatidylglycerol. The expression of some genes involved in seed oil synthesis, such as DGAT2 , PDAT1 , and LEC1 , was increased in developing seeds of FAX1 - and/or ABCA9 -OEs. Conclusion These results indicate that increased expression of FAX1 and ABCA9 can potentially be applied to improving camelina oil production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Differential ability of three bee species to move genes via pollen

Since the release of genetically engineered (GE) crops, there has been increased concern about the introduction of GE genes into non-GE fields of a crop and their spread to feral or wild cross-compatible relatives. More recently, attention has been given to the differential impact of distinct pollinators on gene flow, with the goal of developing isolation distances associated with specific managed pollinators. To examine the differential impact of bee species on gene movement, we quantified the relationship between the probability of getting a GE seed in a pod, and the order in which a flower was visited, or the cumulative distance traveled by a bee in a foraging bout. We refer to these relationships as ‘seed curves’ and compare these seeds curves among three bee species. The experiments used Medicago sativa L. plants carrying three copies of the glyphosate resistance (GR) allele as pollen donors (M. sativa is a tetraploid), such that each pollen grain carried the GR allele, and conventional plants as pollen recipients. Different foraging metrics, including the number of GR seeds produced over a foraging bout, were also quantified and contrasted among bee species. The lowest number of GR seeds set per foraging bout, and the GR seeds set at the shortest distances, were produced following leafcutting bee visits. In contrast, GR seeds were found at the longest distances following bumble bee visits. Values for honey bees were intermediate. The ranking of bee species based on seed curves correlated well with field-based gene flow estimates. Thus, differential seed curves of bee species, which describe patterns of seed production within foraging bouts, translated into distinct abilities of bee species to move genes at a landscape level. Bee behavior at a local scale (foraging bout) helps predict gene flow and the spread of GE genes at the landscape scale.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Application and Certification of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of 737 Wing Box Fittings

Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today's extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring of aircraft structures are a viable option to overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. Prevention of unexpected flaw growth and structural failure can be improved if on-board health monitoring systems are used to continuously assess structural integrity. Such systems are able to detect incipient damage before catastrophic failures occurs. Condition-based maintenance practices could be substituted for the current time-based maintenance approach. Other advantages of on-board distributed sensor systems are that they can eliminate costly, and potentially damaging, disassembly, improve sensitivity by producing optimum placement of sensors and decrease maintenance costs by eliminating more time- consuming manual inspections. This report presents a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp. and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a certification program to formally introduce Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) as a structural health monitoring solution to a specific aircraft wing box application. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM into an airline maintenance program and the document revisions necessary to allow for routine use of CVM as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspects. To carry out the validation process, knowledge of aircraft maintenance practices was coupled with an unbiased, independent evaluation. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically-relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of the CVM system applied to the Boeing 737 Wing Box fitting application. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for CVM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and also is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. This report presents the use of several different statistical methods, some of them adapted from NDI performance assessments and some proposed to address the unique nature of damage detection via SHM systems, and discusses how they can converge to produce a confident quantification of SHM performance An important element in developing SHM validation processes is a clear understanding of the regulatory measures needed to adopt SHM solutions along with the knowledge of the structural and maintenance characteristics that may impact the operational performance of an SHM system. This report describes the major elements of an SHM validation approach and differentiates the SHM elements from those found in NDI validation. The activities conducted in this program demonstrated the feasibility of routine SHM usage in general and CVM in particular for the application selected. They also helped establish an optimum OEM-airline-regulator process and determined how to safely adopt SHM solutions. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM technology. It will also streamline the regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Performance Evaluation of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring and Piezoelectric Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of Rotorcraft Components

The costs associated with the increasing maintenance and surveillance needs of aging structures are rising at an unexpected rate. Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today’s extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. Aircraft maintenance and repairs represent about a quarter of a commercial fleet’s operating costs. The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems using distributed sensor networks can reduce these costs by facilitating rapid and global assessments of structural integrity. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring can overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. The ease of monitoring an entire on-board network of distributed sensors means that structural health assessments can occur more often, allowing operators to be even more vigilant with respect to flaw onset. SHM systems also allow for condition-based maintenance practices to be substituted for the current time-based or cycle-based maintenance approach thus optimizing maintenance labor. The Federal Aviation Administration has conducted a series of SHM validation and certification programs intended to comprehensively support the evolution and adoption of SHM practices into routine aircraft maintenance practices. This report presents one of those programs involving a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Sikorsky, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp., Acellent Technologies Inc., and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a trial validation and certification program to evaluate Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) and Piezoelectric Transducers (PZT) as a structural health monitoring solution to specific rotorcraft applications. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM and PZT systems into rotorcraft maintenance programs and the document revisions necessary to allow for their routine use as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspections. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of a CVM system applied to Sikorsky S-92 fuselage frame application and a PZT system applied to an S-92 main gearbox mount beam application. The applications included both local and global damage detection assessments. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for SHM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. The validation work completed in this program demonstrated the ability of both CVM and PZT SHM systems to detect cracks in rotorcraft components. It proved the ability to use final system response parameters to provide a Green Light/Red Light (“GO” – “NO GO”) decision on the presence of damage. In additional to quantifying the performance of each SHM system for the trial applications on the S-92 platform, this study also identified specific methods that can be used to optimize damage detection, guidance on deployment scenarios that can affect performance and considerations that must be made to properly apply CVM and PZT sensors. These results support the main goal of safely integrating SHM sensors into rotorcraft maintenance programs. Additional benefits from deploying rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) may be realized when structural assessment data, collected by an SHM system, is also used to detect structural damage to compliment the operational environment monitoring. The use of in-situ sensors for health monitoring of rotorcraft structures can be a viable option for both flaw detection and maintenance planning activities. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM and PZT technology. It will also streamline future regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Machine Learning Assisted Safety Modeling and Analysis of Advanced Reactors

With the advances in computational power and numerical methods, analysts can now rely on first-principle simulations to predict ultra-fine details in a variety of applications. Advances in machine learning (ML) have produced algorithms that can now learn high-level abstractions via hierarchical models. This project aims to leverage advances in ML techniques and the available high-resolution simulation data to develop a novel modeling and simulation (M\&S) methodology for reactor safety analysis. While application-agnostic ML techniques are available, complex physics constraints need to be incorporated into ML techniques to build ML-based closures for computationally efficient predictive simulations. This project intends to develop a physics-guided data-driven multi-scale methodology for M\&S of advanced reactors. The project focuses on thermal fluid (T/F) phenomena, which play major roles in advanced reactor safety. Specifically, we propose a data-driven coarse-mesh turbulence model based on local flow features for the transient analysis of thermal mixing and stratification in a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR). The model has a coarse-mesh setup to ensure computational efficiency, while it is trained by fine-mesh computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data with Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence model to ensure accuracy. Three different neural networks are developed and tested for loss-of-flow transients in the hot pool of SFR, i.e. the densely connected convolutional neural network (DCNN), long-short-term-memory network based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD-LSTM), and the DCNN informed by LSTM (DCNN-LSTM). The performances of these three neural networks are evaluated based on baseline models. The DCNN-LSTM model has been chosen for further hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, based on a simplified two-dimensional case, uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the developed ML-based closure are investigated with three methods, i.e. Monte Carlo dropout, deep ensemble, and Bayesian neural network. The developed ML-based turbulent viscosity closure relation based on deep ensemble is then integrated into the system analysis module SAM and serves as a term in the conservation equations. Such a SAM-ML based procedure guarantees that the obtained results are consistent with the physical constraints of the thermal-fluid system. The SAM-ML simulation on the same loss-of-flow transient showed comparable accuracy with the CFD simulation but with a much coarser mesh setup. Last but not least, the ML-based closure improvement with the support of higher-fidelity data from large eddy simulation (LES) is discussed. As a first step towards this direction, a baseline LES simulation is performed to obtain comparable data with RANS results. Based on the early results, future investigation on further improving the ML-based closure is discussed. We believe the developed approach that combines scientific machine learning with nuclear system analysis code can benefit the advanced reactor community as more accurate safety analyses will better characterize reactor safety margins and reduce licensing efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

BayoTech Risk and Modeling Support of NM Gas Site

The BayoTech hydrogen generation system has been evaluated in terms of safety considerations at the NM Gas site. The consequence of a leak in different components in the system was evaluated in terms of plume dispersion and overpressure. Additionally, the likelihood of a leak scenario for different hydrogen components was identified. The worst-case plume dispersion cases, full-bore leaks, resulted in relatively large plumes. However, these cases were noted to be far less likely than the partial break cases that were evaluated. The partial break cases resulted in nearly negligible plume lengths. Similarly, the overpressure analysis of the full-bore break scenarios resulted in much larger overpressures than the partial break cases (which resulted in negligible overpressure at the lot line). There were several cases evaluated in the analysis that represented leak scenarios from both hydrogen and natural gas sources. Generally, the natural gas leak scenarios resulted in a smaller horizontal impact than that of hydrogen leaks. The worst-case consequence from a hydrogen leak resulted from the compressors, storage pods, or dispensing system. To consider the safety features that may isolate the leak, the consequence was evaluated at different times after the leak event to show the reduction of pressure. After 2 seconds, the plume dispersion from this event is contained within the perimeter of the site. The worst-case consequences show that the plume may disperse to adjacent facilities and to the street. When considering both likelihood and consequence, the risk may be considered low because the maximum frequency of a full-bore leak from any component within the hydrogen compound is 8.2 E-5/yr. This means that a full-bore leak is expected to occur less than once every 10,000 years. The risk can be further reduced by implementing mitigative countermeasures, such as CMU walls along the sides of the equipment compound. This would reduce the overall consequence of the worst-case dispersion scenarios (horizontal impact of plume). In terms of siting and safety analysis, the NFPA 2 code was used to provide a high-level evaluation of the current site plan. The most limiting equipment in terms of set-back distance are the compressors/storage units because of the high-pressure hydrogen. The site layout was evaluated for an acceptable location for the compression/storage unit based on NFPA 2 set-back distances. It is important to note that the NFPA 2 set-back distances consider both likelihood and consequence. This is important because the worst-case results evaluated herein also represent the least likely leak scenario. Other site-specific considerations were evaluated, including the parking shade structure with photovoltaic cells and refueling vehicles. These issues were dispositioned and determined to not present a safety risk.

08 HYDROGEN↗