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At least 91 records · Page 5
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Early photometric and spectroscopic observations of the extraordinarily bright INTEGRAL-detected GRB 221009A

Context. GRB 221009A, initially detected as an X-ray transient by Swift, was later revealed to have triggered the Fermi satellite about an hour earlier, marking it as a post-peak observation of the event’s emission. This GRB distinguished itself as the brightest ever recorded, presenting an unparalleled opportunity to probe the complexities of GRB physics. The unprecedented brightness, however, challenged observation efforts, as it led to the saturation of several high-energy instruments.Aims. Our study seeks to investigate the nature of the INTEGRAL-detected GRB 221009A and elucidate the environmental conditions conducive to these exceptionally powerful bursts. Moreover, we aim to understand the fundamental physics illuminated by the detection of teraelectronvolt (TeV) photons emitted by GRB 221009A.Methods. We conducted detailed analyses of early photometric and spectroscopic observations that span from the Fermi trigger through to the initial days following the prompt emission phase in order to characterize GRB 221009A’s afterglow, and we complemented these analyses with a comparative study.Results. Our findings from analyzing INTEGRAL data confirm GRB 221009A as the most energetic event observed to date. Early optical observations during the prompt phase negate the presence of bright optical emissions with internal or external shock origins. Spectroscopic analyses enabled us to measure GRB 221009A’s distance and line-of-sight properties. The afterglow’s temporal and spectral analysis suggests prolonged activity of the central engine and a transition in the circumburst medium’s density. Finally, we discuss the implications for fundamental physics of detecting photons as energetic as 18 TeV from GRB 221009A.Conclusions. Early optical observations have proven invaluable for distinguishing between the potential origins of optical emissions in GRB 221009A, underscoring their utility in GRB physics studies. However, the rarity of such data underscores the need for dedicated telescopes capable of synchronous multiwavelength observations. Additionally, our analysis suggests that the host galaxies of TeV GRBs share commonalities with those of long and short GRBs. Expanding the sample of TeV GRBs could further solidify these findings.Key words: techniques: photometric / techniques: spectroscopic / gamma-ray burst: general / gamma-ray burst: individual: GRB 221009A

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High-dimensional isotomics, part 2: Observations of over 100 constraints on methionine's isotome

The abundances of different isotopic forms of a compound, or isotopologues, will vary based on its physical and chemical history. The number of isotopologues increases combinatorically with the size of a molecule, and even small molecules such as amino acids have thousands of potentially observable isotopic variants. However, due to the analytical challenges of separating and observing isotopologues, only a few dimensions of isotopic diversity are routinely measured. Overcoming these challenges requires both an experimental method to observe many isotopic properties and a theoretical framework for interpreting these experiments. In Part 1, we presented such a theoretical framework; here, we demonstrate an experimental method, which we apply to methionine. Our approach uses a Q Exactive HF Orbitrap to perform several “M + N experiments”, where a sample is ionized, a subset of its isotopologues with cardinal mass N daltons greater than the unsubstituted isotopologue is selected and fragmented, and the proportions of all detectable isotopic forms of those fragment ions are quantified. We perform M + 1, M + 2, M + 3, and M + 4 experiments of a methionine sample and standard where the sample has a 100 ‰ enrichment of 13C at the methyl carbon relative to the natural 13C abundance at that position in the standard, and is otherwise identical to the standard. We observe isotopic forms of 8 fragment ion species for each version of the M + N experiment. With the assistance of a forward model of expected mass spectra, we identify isotopic peaks for each fragment ion based on observed mass and abundance, screen these for data quality, and quantify abundances for 146 unique isotopic peaks at precisions of ≈ 0.3–3 ‰. We present our direct observations and use them to reconstruct the concentrations of 19 individual singly, doubly, and triply-substituted isotopologues; doing so gives fewer constraints and broader error bars than working with the direct observations, but may be more interpretable for some applications. We also examine possibilities for measuring additional peaks, which are primarily limited by the detection limit of the Orbitrap-IRMS method. We then suggest some possible uses of our direct measurements for chemical forensics and hypothesis testing. Furthermore, our results demonstrate the diversity of isotopic constraints currently observable and interpretable for organic molecules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

First observations of edge instabilities in strongly shaped negative triangularity plasmas on DIII-D

Throughout the 2023 DIII-D negative triangularity (NT) campaign, unexpected magnetic fluctuations indicative of an edge localized instability were observed in the majority of strongly shaped (–0.55 ≤ δ ≤ –0.45) discharges. Moreover, these same fluctuations were found to be absent in weaker NT plasma shapes. Based on a database study, three separate mode behaviors are observed based primarily on the edge safety factor and normalized plasma beta β N . The main regime is the bursty state, in which short (~5 ms) magnetic bursts occur every 5–10 ms. Each burst drives a small reduction in the edge electron temperature (T e ) as measured by electron cyclotron emissions (ECE), which then rapidly recovers between the bursts. The quiescent regime appears to have governing mechanics similar to the bursty regime, but with multiple unique mode signatures observed in the magnetics. These additional modes greatly reduce the bursty nature of the plasma. Finally, a saturated state is observed in a number of discharges, particularly at early time slices. The saturated regime is often short-lived (maximum 500 ms), but can have a large impact on the dynamics of the plasma edge region, causing significant drops in electron temperature as observed in the ECE diagnostic. 2D ECE imaging (ECE-I) is utilized, showing large kink-like perturbations localized near the last closed flux surface that extend into the SOL indicative of an external kink/peeling behavior. Additionally, evidence of phase mixing and observed tearing-parity perturbations localized near the edge rational surfaces is observed in the quiescent regime plasmas. As a result, the various modes do not appear to have a large impact on global confinement but may play a role in regulating the transport of the NT edge and the observed edge gradients.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

J-GEM optical and near-infrared follow-up of gravitational wave events during LIGO’s and Virgo’s third observing run

The Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory Scientific Collaboration and Virgo Collaboration (LVC) sent out 56 gravitational-wave (GW) notices during the third observing run (O3). The Japanese Collaboration for Gravitational wave ElectroMagnetic follow-up (J-GEM) performed optical and near-infrared observations to identify and observe an electromagnetic (EM) counterpart. We constructed a web-based system that enabled us to obtain and share information on candidate host galaxies for the counterpart, and the status of our observations. Candidate host galaxies were selected from the GLADE catalog with a weight based on the 3D GW localization map provided by LVC. We conducted galaxy-targeted and wide-field blind surveys, real-time data analysis, and visual inspection of observed galaxies. We performed galaxy-targeted follow-ups to 23 GW events during O3, and the maximum probability covered by our observations reached 9.8%. Among these, we successfully started observations for 10 GW events within 0.5 days after the detection. This result demonstrates that our follow-up observation has the potential to constrain EM radiation models for a merger of binary neutron stars at a distance of up to ~100 Mpc with a probability area of ≤ 500 deg 2 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Lagrangian Evolution of Subtropical Low Clouds in GCMs Using Observations: Mean Evolution, Time Scales, and Responses to Predictors

In this work, a Lagrangian framework is developed to show the daily-scale time evolution of low clouds over the eastern subtropical oceans. An identical framework is applied to two general circulation models (GCMs): the CAM5 and UKMET and a set of satellite observations. This approach follows thousands of parcels as they advect downwind in the subtropical trade winds, comparing cloud evolution in time and space. This study tracks cloud cover, in-cloud liquid water path (CLWP), droplet concentration $N_d$, planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth, and rain rate as clouds transition from regions with predominately stratiform clouds to regions containing mostly trade cumulus. The two models generate fewer clouds with greater $N_d$ relative to observations. Models show stronger Lagrangian cloud cover decline and greater PBL deepening when compared with observations. In comparing frequency distributions of cloud variables over time, it is seen that models generate increasing frequencies of nearly clear conditions at the expense of overcast conditions, whereas observations show transitions from overcast to cloud amounts between 50% and 90%. Lagrangian decorrelation time scales ($\mathcal{e}$-folding time $\tau$) of cloud cover and CLWP are between 11 and 19 h for models and observations, although they are a bit shorter for models. A Lagrangian framework applied here resolves and compares the time evolution of cloud systems as they adjust to environmental perturbations in models and observations. Increasing subsidence in the overlying troposphere leads to declining cloud cover, CLWP, PBL depth, and rain rates in models and observations. Modeled cloud responses to other meteorological variables are less consistent with observations, suggesting a need for continuing mechanical improvements in GCMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Diurnal Variation of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height Observed from GNSS Radio Occultation and Radiosonde Soundings over the Southern Great Plains

>The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is a key physical parameter of the PBL affected by numerous physical processes within the boundary layer. Specifically, the PBLH over land exhibits large spatial and temporal variation across different geographical regions. In this study, the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC) radio occultation (RO) profiles and high-resolution radiosonde profiles from 2007 to 2013 were analyzed to estimate the diurnal cycle of the PBLH over the Southern Great Plains (SGP) in the United States. Large variations in PBLH derived from radiosonde temperature, moisture, and refractivity are observed on seasonal scales. COSMIC RO is capable of observing diurnal and seasonal variations in the terrestrial PBLH over the SGP region. Annual mean diurnal amplitude of approximately 250 m in the terrestrial PBLH was observed, with maxima occurring at around 1500 local solar time (LST) in both the collocated radiosondes and COSMIC RO profiles. Seasonal changes in the PBLH diurnal cycles ranging from approximately 100 to 400 m were also observed. Such PBL diurnal and seasonal changes can be further incorporated into PBL parameterizations to help improve weather and climate model prediction. Significance Statement. The atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL) and its height (PBLH) control many atmospheric processes that affect our everyday lives. Observations of the PBL are usually limited to radiosondes at limited time intervals. GNSS radio occultation (RO) provide high-vertical-resolution atmospheric observations that are ideal for PBL study. This study demonstrates that the GNSS RO is capable of capturing the diurnal and seasonal variations of the PBLH over the southern Great Plains (SGP) well as compared to the collocated radiosonde observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observations of marine animal interactions with a small tidal turbine

The risk of collisions between animals and operating tidal turbines remains a concern in the scientific and regulatory communities. A sensor package including optical cameras was deployed to monitor animal interactions with a small-scale (1 m 2 ) cross-flow tidal turbine. The turbine was deployed in Washington State, USA for 141 days at a site with peak flow speeds of 2.5 m/s. We analyze optical camera imagery spanning 109 days of turbine operation. The analyzed images contain 1044 observations of fish, fish schools, seabirds, or seals in the vicinity of the turbine. No instances of collision with seabirds or seals were observed. Seabirds were only observed during daylight hours and while the turbine was stationary. Both seals and fish were observed during both day and night and while the turbine was stationary and rotating. Four fish were observed colliding with the moving turbine and in all but one case the animals swam away following the collision. Over the same period of time, over fifty times more fish (224 individual fish and 5 fish schools) were observed passing the moving turbine without collision. Fish encounters were likely under counted due to the difficulty in discerning small fish from plant matter in the water column. These observations represent the first optical camera imagery showing fish, bird, and marine mammal interactions with a tidal turbine in North America. In addition to quantitative and qualitative discussion of the implications of our observations for collision risk, we discuss lessons learned on sampling schemes and deployment of machine learning for detection of animals to inform future data collection strategies in future monitoring campaigns.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2021

SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots, 2020

This data set consists of one comma separated (*.csv) file containing phenological transition dates, as derived from direct observations of vegetative and reproductive phenology recorded by a human observer, from the SPRUCE experiment during 2020, the fifth full year of whole-ecosystem warming (Hanson et al. 2017). Both spring and autumn phenological events are included. Since April 2016, human observers have been directly tracking the phenology of both woody and herbaceous species on a weekly schedule within the SPRUCE experimental chambers, these data are reported in annual ground observations data sets (see Related Data Sets). The observed date reported here is the first survey date in 2020 on which an event/phenophase was definitively observed. This data set also contains a companion file in HTML (*.html) format containing figures showing the relationship between the day of year and temperature treatment for different phenological phases by species for 2020. User note: Ground observations of phenology from 2016-2021 are available. SPRUCE Ground Observations of Phenology in Experimental Plots 2021, https://doi.org/10.25581/spruce.099/1874936 for the most recent data as well as links to all other ground phenology datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inference of Multichannel r -process Element Enrichment in the Milky Way Using Binary Neutron Star Merger Observations

Observations of GW170817 strongly suggest that binary neutron star (BNS) mergers produce rapid neutron-capture nucleosynthesis ( r -process) elements. However, it remains an open question whether these mergers can account for all the r -process element enrichment in the Milky Way’s history. Here, we constrain the contributions of the BNS channel using astrophysical neutron star observations. The rate and mass distributions are constrained by LIGO/Virgo/Kagra through the latest catalog GWTC-3, the neutron star equation of state by gravitational-wave, radio, and X-ray observations, and the delay time distribution by short gamma-ray burst (GRB) host galaxy associations. We present a Bayesian framework to consistently combine these observations with abundance information to quantify the contribution and uncertainties of single and multiple astrophysical enrichment sources, and obtain a distribution of per-event BNS r -process element yields consistent with geophysical and astrophysical abundance constraints. We then adopt a Galactic chemical evolution model assuming an instantaneous and fixed amount of Fe enrichment from core-collapse supernovae, and show that BNS-only enrichment scenarios remain inconsistent with the observed r-process abundance trend of disk stars in the Galaxy even with the uncertainties in BNS merger observations. Using stellar abundance observations instead of the short GRB constraints, we can infer a shorter BNS delay time distribution with power-law index α ≤ −2.0 and minimum delay time ${t}_{{\rm{\min }}}\leqslant 40$ Myr at 90% confidence, consistent with detailed Galactic chemical evolution models. Such delay times are in tension with those predicted by standard BNS formation models. Alternatively, we confirm that a two-channel scenario, in which the second channel tracks the star formation history without significant delay, can account for both Galactic stellar and short GRB observations. We estimate that 45%–90% of the r -process abundance in the Milky Way today would have been produced by this star formation-tracking channel, rather than BNS mergers with significant delay times.

gravitational wave astronomy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Nonzero-frequency Fluctuations on Turbulence Spectral Observations

In situ observations of turbulence spectra in space plasmas are usually interpreted as wavenumber spectra, assuming that the fluctuation frequency is negligible in the plasma flow frame. We explore the effects of nonzero frequency in the plasma flow frame on turbulence spectral observations. The finite frequency can be caused by either propagating waves or nonlinear broadening of nonpropagating structures. We show that the observed frequency spectrum can be modified by the nonzero frequency of turbulent fluctuations in several ways. Specifically, (i) frequency broadening results in a minor modification to the observed spectrum, primarily acting as a smoothing kernel of the spectrum near the spectral break, while the asymptotic spectral index remains unchanged; (ii) wave propagation can affect the observed spectral index for anisotropic turbulence. The effect is significant at low frequencies and weaker at high frequencies, leading to a "concave" shape of the observed perpendicular spectrum; (iii) the Doppler shift for forward- and backward-propagating Elsasser modes can result in a nonzero cross helicity for critical-balanced turbulence since the effect of the Doppler shift favors outward-propagating waves systematically, resulting in an observed imbalance. These results may have important implications for the interpretation of solar wind flows observed by Parker Solar Probe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing radar scan strategies for tracking isolated deep convection using observing system simulation experiments

Abstract. Optimizing radar observation strategies is one of the most important considerations in pre-field campaign periods. This is especially true for isolated convective clouds that typically evolve faster than the observations captured by operational radar networks. This study investigates uncertainties in radar observations of the evolution of the microphysical and dynamical properties of isolated deep convective clouds developing in clean and polluted environments. It aims to optimize the radar observation strategy for deep convection through the use of high-spatiotemporal cloud-resolving model simulations, which resolve the evolution of individual convective cells every 1 min, coupled with a radar simulator and a cell tracking algorithm. The radar simulation settings are based on the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) and Experiment of Sea Breeze Convection, Aerosols, Precipitation and Environment (ESCAPE) field campaigns held in the Houston, TX, area but are generalizable to other field campaigns focusing on isolated deep convection. Our analysis produces the following four outcomes. First, a 5–7 m s−1 median difference in maximum updrafts of tracked cells is shown between the clean and polluted simulations in the early stages of the cloud lifetimes. This demonstrates the importance of obtaining accurate estimates of vertical velocity from observations if aerosol impacts are to be properly resolved. Second, tracking of individual cells and using vertical cross section scanning every minute capture the evolution of precipitation particle number concentration and size represented by polarimetric observables better than the operational radar observations that update the volume scan every 5 min. This approach also improves multi-Doppler radar updraft retrievals above 5 km above ground level for regions with updraft velocities greater than 10 m s−1. Third, we propose an optimized strategy composed of cell tracking by quick (1–2 min) vertical cross section scans from more than one radar in addition to the operational volume scans. We also propose the use of a single-RHI (range height indicator) updraft retrieval technique for cells close to the radars, for which multi-Doppler radar retrievals are still challenging. Finally, increasing the number of deep convective cells sampled by such observations better represents the median maximum updraft evolution with sample sizes of more than 10 deep cells, which decreases the error associated with sampling the true population to less than 3 m s−1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

First Direct Observations of Propagation of Discrete Chorus Elements From the Equatorial Source to Higher Latitudes, Using the Van Allen Probes and Arase Satellites

Whistler mode chorus waves have recently been established as the most likely candidate for scattering relativistic electrons to produce the electron microbursts observed by low altitude satellites and balloons. These waves would have to propagate from the equatorial source region to significantly higher magnetic latitude in order to scatter electrons of these relativistic energies. This theoretically proposed propagation has never been directly observed. We present the first direct observations of the same discrete rising tone chorus elements propagating from a near equatorial (Van Allen Probes) to an off-equatorial (Arase) satellite. The chorus is observed first on the more equatorial satellite and is found to be more oblique and significantly attenuated at the off-equatorial satellite. Further, this is consistent with the prevailing theory of chorus propagation and with the idea that chorus must propagate from the equatorial source region to higher latitudes. Ray tracing of chorus at the observed frequencies confirms that these elements could be generated parallel to the field at the equator, and propagate through the medium unducted to Van Allen Probes A and then to Arase with the observed time delay, and have the observed obliquity and intensity at each satellite.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enabling Marine Energy Integration for Ocean Observing: Functional Requirements

Marine renewable energy (i.e., wave, tidal or ocean current, thermal gradient, and salinity gradient) or MRE can revolutionize ocean observing capabilities. Five use cases representing a range of ocean observing platforms were developed based on end-user feedback. Drawing from these use cases, common needs or functional requirements were developed to help guide the integration of MRE power delivery for ocean observation structures and functions. The functional requirements were determined from descriptions of the use cases, specifications of hardware that are used or closely associated with existing ocean observation platforms, and direct feedback from ocean observation sensor/platform developers and users. Twenty types of functional requirements were identified, including those associated with power and energy use; physical system requirements; temperature and depth; electrical, acoustic, and motion interference; and reliability. Each set of functional requirements is illustrated as features of the use cases. By defining functional requirements for MRE technology integration in ocean observing platforms, and focusing on end-user requirements, barriers to developing MRE-driven ocean observation missions can be reduced.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observations of Aerosol, Cloud, Turbulence, and Radiation Properties at the Top of the Marine Boundary Layer over the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean: The ACORES Campaign

We report on the Azores Stratocumulus Measurements of Radiation, Turbulence and Aerosols (ACORES) campaign, which took place around Graciosa and Pico Islands/Azores in July 2017. The main objective was to investigate the vertical distribution of aerosol particles, stratocumulus microphysical and radiative properties, and turbulence parameters in the eastern North Atlantic. The vertical exchange of mass, momentum, and energy between the free troposphere (FT) and the cloudy marine boundary layer (MBL) was explored over a range of scales from submeters to kilometers. To cover these spatial scales with appropriate measurements, helicopter-borne observations with unprecedented high resolution were realized using the Airborne Cloud Turbulence Observation System (ACTOS) and Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System–Helicopter-Borne Observations (SMART-HELIOS) instrumental payloads. Here, the helicopter-borne observations were combined with ground-based aerosol measurements collected at two continuously running field stations on Pico Mountain (2,225 m above sea level, in the FT), and at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) station on Graciosa (at sea level). First findings from the ACORES observations we are discussing in the paper are as follows: (i) we have observed a high variability of the turbulent cloud-top structure on horizontal scales below 100 m with local temperature gradients of up to 4 K over less than 1 m vertical distance, (ii) we have collected strictly collocated radiation measurements supporting the relevance of small-scale processes by revealing significant inhomogeneities in cloud-top brightness temperature to scales well below 100 m, and (iii) we have concluded that aerosol properties are completely different in the MBL and FT with often-complex stratification and frequently observed burst-like new particle formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Global Methane Observation System to Reduce Uncertainty for Anthropogenic and Natural Sources and Sinks for Detecting and Attributing Climate Feedbacks

Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations are accelerating global warming as net emissions increase. Observing systems that quantify sources remain too sparse and fragmented to detect trends—especially in remote regions where climate‐driven natural emissions may be rising. We provide a framework for quantifying uncertainty reductions through the implementation of a global ecosystem‐methane observing system designed to: (i) substantially lower uncertainty in sectoral and regional emissions, (ii) separate co‐occurring anthropogenic and natural fluxes, and (iii) trend detection at regional scales to verify mitigation progress and provide early warning of natural feedbacks. Using bottom‐up inventories and process‐model ensembles for 2014–2023, we show that anthropogenic emissions remain uncertain by ∼32% globally, while natural sources—tropical and boreal‐arctic wetlands, fires, and inland waters—carry far larger uncertainties (+ 70%) and trend uncertainties reaching ∼200%. Additional observations must match spatial emission structure to increase observability of emissions: high‐resolution satellite constellations for point sources combined with expanded flux networks and wetland mapping for diffuse sources, and denser ground‐based atmospheric column measurements to restore observability in under‐sampled tropics and high latitudes. Notional analyses indicate that targeted additions of flux towers and ∼20 in situ atmospheric column concentration instruments per key tropical region could reduce continental‐scale uncertainties at modest cost. Conceptual illustration of a Global Ecosystem Methane Observing System (GEM‐OS) integrating satellites, aircraft, atmospheric networks, and ecosystem measurements to quantify methane emissions from anthropogenic and natural sources. The multi‐scale observing framework improves source attribution, reduces uncertainty in regional methane budgets, and enables early detection of climate‐driven feedbacks from wetlands, fires, permafrost, agriculture, and fossil‐fuel emissions.

Ciais, P↗
DOE OSTI2021

In-situ observation of pre-, co- and post-seismic shear slip at 1.5 km depth

Understanding the initiation and arrest of earthquakes is one of the long-standing challenges of seismology. Here we report on direct observations of borehole displacement by a meter-sized shear rupture induced by pressurization of metamorphic rock at 1.5 km depth. We observed the acceleration of sliding, followed by fast co-seismic slip and transient afterslip. Total displacements were about 7, 5.5 and 9.5 micrometers, respectively for the observed pre-slip, co-seismic slip and afterslip. The observed pre-slip lasted about 0.4 seconds. Co-seismic slip was recorded by the 1 kHz displacement recording and a 12-component array of 3-C accelerometers sampled at 100 kHz. The observed afterslip is consistent with analytical models of arrest in a velocity-strengthening region and subsequent stress relaxation. < p >The observed slip vector agrees with the activation of a bedding plane within the phyllite, which is corroborated by relocated seismic events that were observed during the later stages of the injection experiment.

Schoenball, Martin↗