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At least 91 records · Page 5

Propagation and Periodicity of Mars's Northern Annular Mode Modulates the Dust Cycle

Abstract We document the propagation of annular modes—zonally symmetric patterns of variability—in Mars's atmosphere using a reanalysis dataset. Mars's Northern Annular Mode (MNAM) sees anomalies of zonal‐mean zonal wind emerge near the subtropics and migrate poleward with a period of 150 days, similarly to Earth's Southern Annular Mode. The mechanism of propagation involves the interaction of the two leading empirical orthogonal functions that define the MNAM. Moreover, the propagation encourages alternating bands of surface wind stress to migrate polewards with a 150‐day period. In addition, a 150‐day periodicity in anomalous column dust optical depth most likely emerges in response to extrema of the MNAM. The combination of the impact of the MNAM's internally forced periodicity on the surface wind stress and the seasonal cycle may contribute to the inter‐annual variability of global dust events, as suggested by a Monte Carlo estimate that correctly approximates the observed incidence of global dust events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decoupling of mechanical properties and ionic conductivity in supramolecular lithium ion conductors

Abstract The emergence of wearable electronics puts batteries closer to the human skin, exacerbating the need for battery materials that are robust, highly ionically conductive, and stretchable. Herein, we introduce a supramolecular design as an effective strategy to overcome the canonical tradeoff between mechanical robustness and ionic conductivity in polymer electrolytes. The supramolecular lithium ion conductor utilizes orthogonally functional H-bonding domains and ion-conducting domains to create a polymer electrolyte with unprecedented toughness (29.3 MJ m −3 ) and high ionic conductivity (1.2 × 10 −4 S cm −1 at 25 °C). Implementation of the supramolecular ion conductor as a binder material allows for the creation of stretchable lithium-ion battery electrodes with strain capability of over 900% via a conventional slurry process. The supramolecular nature of these battery components enables intimate bonding at the electrode-electrolyte interface. Combination of these stretchable components leads to a stretchable battery with a capacity of 1.1 mAh cm −2 that functions even when stretched to 70% strain. The method reported here of decoupling ionic conductivity from mechanical properties opens a promising route to create high-toughness ion transport materials for energy storage applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The impact of long-term oceanic warming on the Antarctic Oscillation in austral winter

Increasing greenhouse gas concentration and ozone depletion are generally considered two important factors that affect the variability of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Here, we find that the first leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability (rotated empirical orthogonal functions) shows a long-term upward trend from 1901 to 2004 and is closely related to the AAO index that is obtained using the observationally constrained reanalysis data. Further, regressions of the sea level pressure and the 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, against the principle component associated with the long-term SST anomalies, display a seesaw behavior between the middle and high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere in austral winter, which is similar to the high polarity of the AAO. The circulation responses to the long-term oceanic warming in three numerical models are consistent with the observed results. This finding suggests that the long-term oceanic warming is partly responsible for the upward trend of the AAO in austral winter. The thermal wind response to the oceanic warming in South Indian and South Atlantic Ocean may be a possible mechanism for this process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A divergence-free constrained magnetic field interpolation method for scattered data

An interpolation method to evaluate magnetic fields, given its unstructured and scattered magnetic data, is presented. The method is based on the reconstruction of the global magnetic field using a superposition of orthogonal functions. The coefficients of the expansion are obtained by minimizing a cost function defined as the L2 norm of the difference between the ground truth and the reconstructed magnetic field evaluated on the training data. The divergence-free condition is incorporated as a constraint in the cost function, allowing the method to achieve arbitrarily small errors in the magnetic field divergence. An exponential decay of the approximation error is observed and compared with the less favorable algebraic decay of local splines. Compared to local methods involving computationally expensive search algorithms, the proposed method exhibits a significant reduction of the computational complexity of the field evaluation, while maintaining a small error in the divergence even in the presence of magnetic islands and stochasticity. Finally, applications to the computation of Poincaré sections using data obtained from numerical solutions of the magnetohydrodynamic equations in toroidal geometry are presented and compared with local methods currently in use.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Inferring Atmospheric Release Characteristics in a Large Computer Experiment using Bayesian Adaptive Splines

An atmospheric release of hazardous material, whether accidental or intentional, can be catastrophic for those in the path of the plume. Predicting the path of a plume based on characteristics of the release (location, amount and duration) and meteorological conditions is an active research area highly relevant for emergency and long-term response to these releases. As a result, researchers have developed particle dispersion simulators to provide plume path predictions that incorporate release characteristics and meteorological conditions. However, since release characteristics and meteorological conditions are often unknown, the inverse problem is of great interest, that is, based on all the observations of the plume so far, what can be inferred about the release characteristics? This is the question we seek to answer using plume observations from a controlled release at the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in Central California. With access to a large number of evaluations of a computationally expensive particle dispersion simulator that includes continuous and categorical inputs and spatio-temporal output, building a fast statistical surrogate model (or emulator) presents many statistical challenges, but is an essential tool for inverse modeling and sensitivity analysis. We achieve accurate emulation using Bayesian adaptive splines to model weights on empirical orthogonal functions. Here, we use this emulator as well as appropriately identifiable simulator discrepancy and observational error models to calibrate the simulator, thus finding a posterior distribution of characteristics of the release. Since the release was controlled, these characteristics are known, making it possible to compare our findings to the truth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantification of spatial and seasonal trends in the atmosphere and construction of statistical models for infrasonic propagation

SUMMARY Infrasonic waves are influenced by variations in the density, pressure and temperature as well as the ambient winds. Modelling infrasonic propagation can be challenging due to the dynamic nature of the atmosphere as well as the sparseness of measurements which result in variability and notable uncertainty. A framework is presented to quantify spatial and seasonal trends in atmospheric structure via analysis of the effective sound speed profile and identification of temporal trends in the middle atmospheric waveguide produced by the circumpolar vortex winds. Seasonal definitions identifying typical atmospheric structures during the summer, winter and spring/fall transition periods are identified using atmospheric data from 2010 through 2020. Seasonal trend analysis is conducted for a number of locations across the contiguous United States to quantify spatial variations in atmospheric structure that impact infrasonic propagation. For each season and location, empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to reduce the historical archive of atmospheric data into a smaller representative set that can be analysed using numerical tools more efficiently. Infrasonic ray tracing and finite-frequency modal propagation analyses are applied to construct propagation path geometry and transmission loss statistics which are useful in localization and yield estimation for infrasonic sources, respectively. An example application is detailed in which transmission loss statistics are combined with an explosive source model and noise statistics to quantify the capability of a network to detect nearby sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Statistical Generation of Ocean Forcing With Spatiotemporal Variability for Ice Sheet Models

Melting of ice at the base of floating ice shelves that fringe the Antarctic ice sheet has been identified as a significant source of uncertainty in sea level rise projections. Part of this uncertainty derives from chaotic internal variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. For numerical ice sheet model projections, this uncertainty has not previously been quantified because of the prohibitive computational expense of running large climate model ensembles. Here, we develop and demonstrate a technique that generates independent realizations of internal climate variability from a single climate model simulation. Building on previous developments in model emulation, this technique uses empirical orthogonal function decomposition and Fourier-phase randomization to generate statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal variability fields for the target climate variable. The method facilitates efficient sampling of a wide range of climate trajectories, which can also be incorporated within ice sheet or other physical models to represent feedback processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

OpenCRUMS USA: An Open Machine Learning Framework for Characterizing Variability in Aerosol Reanalysis Data

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have called for exploring how these techniques can be used for exploring patterns in large climate datasets. To that regard, the U.S. Department of Energy AI for Earth System Predictability (AI4ESP) supported a pilot initiative called the Open Classification of Regimes in the Southeast USA (OpenCRUMS USA) project to explore how AI can be used to characterize modes of spatial variability in large climate datasets. For this study, we focus on comparing two methods for characterizing the modes of spatial variability of surface aerosol concentration over the Houston region: empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and layerwise relevance propagation (LRP) applied to a convolutional neural network (CNN) classifier. We show that EOF analysis typically attributes spatial variability modes that span all of southeast Texas, prohibiting the attribution of spatial variability to localized regions. However, using LRP on the CNN classifier resolves the explanatory parameters at a finer spatial resolution than EOFs. This allows for the attribution of the spatial variability of surface aerosols to local regions of organic carbon which was not possible using EOFs. In addition, the LRP analysis also suggests that synoptic-scale transport of dust is most prevalent during anticyclonic and pretrough synoptic conditions as categorized by self-organizing maps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Potential impacts of the Arctic on interannual and interdecadal summer precipitation over China

After the end of the 1970s, there has been a tendency for enhanced summer precipitation over South China and the Yangtze River valley and drought over North China and Northeastern China. Coincidentally, Arctic ice concentration has decreased since the late 1970s, with larger reduction in summer than spring. However, the Arctic warming is more significant in spring than summer, suggesting that spring Arctic conditions could be more important in their remote impacts. This study investigates the potential impacts of the Arctic on summer precipitation in China. The leading spatial patterns and time coefficients of the unfiltered, interannual, and interdecadal precipitation (1960-2008) modes were analyzed and compared using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, which shows that the first three EOFs can capture the principal precipitation patterns (northern, central and southern patterns) over eastern China. Regression of the Arctic spring and summer temperature onto the time coefficients of the leading interannual and interdecadal precipitation modes shows that interdecadal summer precipitation in China is related to the Arctic spring warming, but the relationship with Arctic summer temperature is weak. Moreover, no notable relationships were found between the first three modes of interannual precipitation and Arctic spring or summer temperatures. Finally, correlations between summer precipitation and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index from January to August were investigated, which indicate that summer precipitation in China correlates with AO only to some extent. Overall, this study suggests important relationships between the Arctic spring temperature and summer precipitation over China at the interdecadal time scale.

Arctic↗

Climate Changes of Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Derived from Twentieth-Century Reanalysis

Whereas some studies linked the enhanced tropical cyclone (TC) formation in the North Atlantic basin to the ongoing global warming, other studies attributed it to the warm phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the present study reveals the distinctive spatial patterns associated with the influences of the AMO and global warming on TC formation in the North Atlantic basin. Two leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) patterns are identified in the climate change of TC formation on time scales longer than interannual. The first pattern is associated with the AMO and its spatial pattern shows the basin-scale enhancement of TC formation during the AMO positive phase. The second pattern is associated with global warming, showing enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic (5°–20°N, 15°–40°W) and reduced TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea. In the warm AMO phase, the basinwide decrease in vertical wind shear and increases in midlevel relative humidity and maximum potential intensity (MPI) favor the basinwide enhancement of TC formation. Global warming suppresses TC formation from the southeast coast of the United States extending southward to the Caribbean Sea through enhancing vertical wind shear and reducing midlevel relative humidity and MPI. The enhanced TC formation in the east tropical Atlantic is due mainly to a local increase in MPI or sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a close relationship between the Atlantic SST and TC activity over the past decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of the Pacific–Japan and Circumglobal Teleconnection Patterns on the Interdecadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

Based on the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset, the dominant modes of interdecadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are investigated through a multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis (MV-EOF). The first mode (EA1) is characterized by an anomalous cyclone centered over Taiwan and an anomalous anticyclone centered over the Bohai Sea. These phenomena are part of the meridional wave–like teleconnection pattern propagating poleward from the southern tropical western North Pacific (WNP), referred to as the interdecadal Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern. The interdecadal PJ pattern is driven by negative anomalous convective heating over the southern tropical WNP, which is associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the interdecadal Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM). The amplitude of the EA1 and its contribution to the total variance of the EASM decrease remarkably after the 1960s. The second MV-EOF mode (EA2) is characterized by cyclone anomalies extending from northeastern China to Japan, which are part of a circumglobal wave train. Given the spatial scale of the wave train in the zonal direction (wavenumber 5), as well as the fact that it possesses barotropic structures and propagates along the Northern Hemispheric jet stream, it is referred to herein as the interdecadal circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. The interdecadal CGT pattern is associated with the forcing from the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Though the interdecadal PJ and CGT patterns are derived from the 20CR dataset, they are carefully verified through comparisons with various observational and reanalysis datasets from different perspectives.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Would the Twenty-First-Century Warming Influence Pacific Decadal Variability and Its Connection to North American Rainfall: Assessment Based on a Revised Procedure for the IPO/PDO

Decadal climate variability of sea surface temperature (SST) over the Pacific Ocean can be characterized by interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) or Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Although the procedures to derive the IPO and PDO indices differ in their regional focuses and filtering methods to remove interannual variability, the IPO and PDO are highly correlated in time and are often used interchangeably. Studies have shown that the IPO and PDO conjointly (IPO/PDO for conciseness) play a vital role in modulating the pace of global warming. It is less clear, however, how externally forced global warming may, in turn, affect the IPO/PDO. One obstacle to revealing this effect is that the conventional definitions of the IPO/PDO fail to account for the spatial heterogeneity of the background warming trend, which causes the IPO/PDO to be conflated with the warming trend, especially for the twenty-first-century simulation when the forced change is likely to be more dominant. Using a large-ensemble simulation in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), it is shown here that a better practice of detrending prior to EOF analysis is to remove the local and nonlinear trend, defined as the ensemble-mean time series at each grid box (or simply as the quadratic fit of the local time series if such an ensemble is not available). The revised IPO/PDO index is purely indicative of internal decadal variability. In the twenty-first-century warmer climate, the IPO/PDO has a weaker amplitude in space, a higher frequency in time, and a muted impact on global and North American temperature and rainfall.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Intraseasonal Mode of Atmospheric Variability Relevant to the U.S. Hydroclimate in Boreal Summer: Dynamic Origin and East Asia Connection

In this work intraseasonal modes of atmospheric variability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitudes in boreal summer are identified via an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the daily 10–90-day bandpass-filtered 250-hPa streamfunction for the period of 1950–2016. The first two EOF modes are characterized, respectively, by (i) a single-signed streamfunction anomaly that extends across the NH and (ii) a regional dipole structure with centers over the Aleutian Islands and northeastern Pacific. The third EOF mode (EOF-3) is a quasi-stationary wave train over the Pacific–North American sector with an equivalent barotropic structure in the vertical. EOF-3 is associated with a northwest–southeast oriented anomalous precipitation dipole over the United States. A nonmodal instability analysis of the boreal summer climatological flow in terms of the 250-hPa streamfunction reveals that one of the top “optimal mode” disturbances mimicking the EOF-3 structure grows from an initial precursor disturbance over East Asia through extracting kinetic energy from background flow and attains its maximum amplitude in around nine days. An additional lag regression analysis illustrates that anomalous latent heating associated with cloud and precipitation formation over East Asia is responsible for generating the precursor disturbance for the EOF-3-like optimal mode. This result suggests the existence of an important connection between the hydrological cycles of East Asia and North America, which is dynamically intrinsic to the boreal summer upper-tropospheric flow. Knowledge of such a connection will help us better understand and model hydroclimate variability over these two continents.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal-to-Interannual Response of Southern Ocean Mixed Layer Depth to the Southern Annular Mode from a Global 1/10° Ocean Model

The relationship between the southern annular mode (SAM) and Southern Ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) is investigated herein using a global 0.1° resolution ocean model. The SAM index is defined as the principal component time series of the leading empirical orthogonal function of extratropical sea level pressure from September to December, when the zonally symmetric SAM feature is most prominent. Following positive phases of the SAM, anomalous deep mixed layers occur in the subsequent fall season, starting in May, particularly in the southeast Pacific. Composite analyses reveal that for positive SAM phases enhanced surface cooling caused by anomalously strong westerlies weakens the stratification of the water column, leading to deeper mixed layers during spring when the SAM signal is at its strongest. During the subsequent summer, the surface warms and the mixed layer shoals. However, beneath the warm surface layer, anomalously weak stratification persists throughout the summer and into fall. When the surface cools again during fall, the mixed layer readily deepens due to this weak interior stratification, a legacy from the previous springtime conditions. Therefore, the spring SAM–fall MLD relationship is interpreted here as a manifestation of reemergence of interior water mass anomalies. The opposite occurs after negative phases of the SAM, with anomalously shallow mixed layers resulting. Additional analyses reveal that for the MLD region in the southeast Pacific, the effects of salinity variations and Ekman heat advection are negligible, although Ekman heat transport may play an important role in other regions where mode water is formed, such as south of Australia and in the Indian Ocean.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Simulation of African Easterly Waves in a Global Climate Model

Abstract African easterly waves (AEWs) exert significant influence on local and downstream high-impact weather including tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Atlantic. Accurate representation of AEWs in climate and weather prediction models therefore is necessary for skillful predictions. In this study, we examine simulated AEWs, including their evolution, vertical structure, and linkage to tropical cyclone genesis, in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric global climate model. Identified by the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of time-filtered precipitation, the observed westward propagating AEWs along the southern track over the Atlantic are largely captured in GEOS-5, but with a slower phase speed and significantly weaker amplitude downstream off the West Africa coast. The weak downstream development of AEWs in GEOS-5 is accompanied by much reduced TC genesis over the main development region. Further analyses suggest that the slow westward propagation and weaker AEW amplitude downstream can be ascribed to a weak African easterly jet, while overestimated negative (positive) meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradients appear to the north (south) of 10°N in GEOS-5. The greatly overestimated positive meridional PV gradient to the south of 10°N is expected to generate strong horizontal stretching in the AEW wave pattern in the model, which hinders organization of convection and its feedback to sustain the AEW development. Persistent and vigorous AEW precipitation in the Guinea Highlands of the West Africa coast could also be responsible for reduced westward propagation of AEWs in the model.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Beyond PCA: Additional Dimension Reduction Techniques to Consider in the Development of Climate Fingerprints

Abstract Dimension reduction techniques are an essential part of the climate analyst’s toolkit. Due to the enormous scale of climate data, dimension reduction methods are used to identify major patterns of variability within climate dynamics, to create compelling and informative visualizations, and to quantify major named modes such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Principal components analysis (PCA), also known as the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), is the most commonly used form of dimension reduction, characterized by a remarkable confluence of attractive mathematical, statistical, and computational properties. Despite its ubiquity, PCA suffers from several difficulties relevant to climate science: high computational burden with large datasets, decreased statistical accuracy in high dimensions, and difficulties comparing across multiple datasets. In this paper, we introduce several variants of PCA that are likely to be of use in climate sciences and address these problems. Specifically, we introduce non-negative , sparse , and tensor PCA and demonstrate how each approach provides superior pattern recognition in climate data. We also discuss approaches to comparing PCA-family results within and across datasets in a domain-relevant manner. We demonstrate these approaches through an analysis of several runs of the E3SM climate model from 1991 to 1995, focusing on the simulated response to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption; our findings are consistent with a recently identified stratospheric warming fingerprint associated with this type of stratospheric aerosol injection.

Weylandt, Michael↗

Investigating the Relative Contribution from Tropical Indo-Pacific SST to Asian Monsoon Precipitation Variability Using LIM

Abstract A critical issue is determining the factors that control the year-to-year variability in precipitation over southern Asia. In this study, we employ a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to quantify the relative contribution of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) to the interannual variability of the Asian monsoon, especially Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Through a series of CS-LIM experiments, we isolate the impacts of the direct forcing from Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs, and their interaction on Asian monsoon rainfall variability. Our results reveal distinct patterns of influence with the direct forcing from the Pacific (Indian) Ocean tending to enhance (reduce) the magnitude of precipitation variability, while the Indo-Pacific interaction acts to strongly damp the variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, especially over India. We further investigate these specific impacts on ISMR by analyzing the relationship between tropical Indo-Pacific SSTAs and the leading three empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of ISMR. The results from our CS-LIM experiments indicate that the direct forcing from El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances the variability of the first and third EOFs, while the Indian Ocean SSTA opposes ENSO’s effects, which is consistent with previous studies. Our new results show that the tropical Indo-Pacific interaction strongly damps ISMR variability, which is due to the ENSO-induced Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) opposing the direct impacts from ENSO on ISMR. Additionally, reduced ENSO amplitude and duration associated with the Indo-Pacific interaction may also contribute to the damping effect on ISMR, but this requires further study to understand the relevant mechanisms.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Interdecadal Climate Variations Controlling the Water Level of Lake Qinghai over the Tibetan Plateau

Using observed and reanalysis research, the pronounced interdecadal variations of Lake Qinghai (LQH) water levels and associated climate factors were diagnosed. From the 1960s to the early 2000s, the water level of LQH in the Tibetan Plateau has experienced a continual decline of 3 m but has since increased considerably. A water budget assessment of the LQH watershed implied that the water vapor flux divergence ∇•Q is the dominant atmospheric process modulating precipitation and subsequently the lake volume change ΔV. The marked interdecadal variability in ΔV and ∇•Q and was found to be related to the North Pacific (NP) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) modes during the cold season (November–March). Through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and regression analyses, the water vapor sink over the LQH watershed also responds critically to the summer Eurasian wave train modulated by the low-frequency variability associated with the cold season NP and PDO modes. Removal of these variability modes (NP, PDO, and the Eurasian wave train) led to a residual uptrend in the hydrological variables of ΔV, ∇•Q and precipitation, corresponding to the net water level increase. Attribution analysis using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) single-forcing experiments shows that the simulations driven by greenhouse gas forcing produced a significant increase in the LQH precipitation, while anthropogenic aerosols generated a minor wetting trend as well.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗