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85 records · Page 5

Perspectives on Next Steps in Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Much has happened in arms control over the last year as this chapter has been in development. The prospects for arms control as a viable national security tool have, if anything, grown darker. Russia has falsely equated tearing down the remaining arms control edifice with creating potential leverage vis-à-vis its actions in Ukraine. China has failed to update its talking points on being a responsible arms control actor with its massive nuclear force expansion. The United States has stated clearly that it is open for business on arms control and risk reduction, but it unfortunately has no customers in Russia and China. It remains unclear what specifically the United States is selling in terms of what it wants in a potential agreement. Competitive dynamics and an atmosphere of great power competition are driving all parties further away from the table.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

MITR Low-Enriched Uranium Conversion Fluid-Structure Interaction Preliminary Design Verification

The U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Office of Material Management and Minimization (M 3 ) has developed and is pursuing an integrated approach to address the persistent threat posed by unintentional proliferation of nuclear materials. The NNSA M 3 approach reduces the risk of highly enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium falling into the hands of non-state actors by minimizing the use of and, when possible, eliminating weapons-usable nuclear material around the world. In this geopolitical context, most research and test reactors, both domestic and international, have completed or started a program of conversion from the use of HEU to low-enriched uranium (LEU) as fuel. Conversion of civilian research reactors from HEU to LEU, and the return of the HEU to the country of origin, are important components of the NNSA non-proliferation program. Worldwide, 71 reactors have been converted to the use of LEU fuel, and an additional 32 have been confirmed to be permanently shut down. The U.S., with 20 reactor conversions, is among the 39 countries on six continents where conversions have occurred. With recent conversions in Ghana and Nigeria, an important milestone was reached in completing conversion of all reactors on the continent of Africa to LEU fuel. Africa thus becomes the third continent to have completed conversion of all HEU reactors to LEU, following Australia and South America

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Importance of 3-D S{sub N} depletion in non-proliferation using BSOLVE

We present a single Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) 3-D fuel rod design for depletion analysis using BSOLVE, our newly developed Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg based depletion code. BSOLVE is coupled with the deterministic 3-D S{sub N} particle transport code, PENTRAN, applied here with a 4-neutron energy group comparison to Continuous Energy (C/E) SERPENT2 Monte Carlo results. Differences are expected, as PENTRAN+BSOLVE retains full (multi-group) energy information for reactions, nuclide specific fission contributions, and energy dependent fission yields, using the latest available ENDF-BVIII data, important to retain accurate burned fuel inventories; SERPENT2 collapses burnup reactions to a single energy value. For depletion times up to ∼ 700 days and typical PWR power densities, relative differences between multigroup 3-D S{sub N} with full energy data and Monte Carlo one group burnup for trans-uranium nuclide concentrations and fission products are up to ∼20%. System eigenvalues are consistent, but with differences early and late in the cycle attributed to multigroup vs. C/E Monte Carlo cross sections. This work highlights the importance of low variance transport driven burnup for non-proliferation concerns, since plutonium quality varies significantly along axial lengths, and is more challenging to converge using Monte Carlo; details of depletion steps with spatial/zone dependent plutonium quality are provided. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Aspects of Crystal Growth and Atomic-Scale Characterization of U/Th Age-Dating Particles

Trace analysis of particulate material collected on environmental swipe samples continues to be one of the cornerstones of the IAEA’s process of verifying member state compliance as part of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). While complementary to traditional bulk analysis, the ability to measure individual particles can be far more impactful from a radiochronometry perspective. The 234U/230Th radiochronometer is being evaluated as a means of establishing model ages for discrete particles with sufficient confidence. To support the extension of current capabilities, reference materials with a suitable particle form factor and well-documented purification date are actively sought for development with large geometry secondary ion mass spectroscopy.

Nuclear Safeguards, IAEA, Particle Standards↗

Numerical Simulations of Non-Proliferation Experiments

We have implemented a set of numerical simulations to numerically investigate the outcomes of non-proliferation experiments. The high explosive (HE) in the simulations is in the form of a cylinder. The two-dimensional simulations are carried out in the r-z cylindrical coordinate, and the three-dimensional simulation is in the Cartesian coordinate. From the simulation, the cavity formed after detonation stops its expansion after about 0.15 sec. At the time the cavity stops expanding, the cavity shape seems quite spherical although the initial HE is in the shape of cylinder, but the radius in the vertical direction, which is about 19.7m, is a little less than the one in the horizonal direction, which is about 21.5m. Although there is no layer of air between the HE and tuff in real experiments, in addition to the simulations without air, we add a layer of air in one simulation to assess any possible influence of the air on the shape of the cavity.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Advanced Fuel Cycle Cost Basis Report: Module D1-2 LWR Pelletized MOX Fuel Fabrication

Nature of this 2021 Module update from previous AFC-CBRs: Use of U,Pu MOX life cycle cost data from late 1970s Non-proliferation Assessment Systems Analysis Program (NASAP). This archived data has been updated in 2018-2019 to reflect today’s regulatory and economic conditions and is presented in 2017. For the lower unit cost MOX fabrication case the PuO 2 from the reprocessed LWR SNF is assumed to be fabricated immediately after aqueous PUREX reprocessing, thus minimizing the time for undesirable actinide radioisotopes, from the standpoint of radiation safety, to build in. Fabricated MOX utilizing separated and multi-year stored Pu from aqueously reprocessed SNF has also been added to this Module as a second LWR MOX fabrication variant, requiring additional and more costly glovebox design and operations to protect personnel. This new NASAP-informed data augments historical data and unit cost projections appearing in the 2009 (Shropshire et al 2009), 2012 (Dixon et al 2012), and 2017 Dixon et al 2017) AFC-CBRs. The “What-it-takes” 2017 unit fabrication cost values based on the updated NASAP studies are escalated to 2020$ for this 2021 Update Report.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Semi-supervised Bayesian Low-shot Learning

Deep neural networks (NNs) typically outperform traditional machine learning (ML) approaches for complicated, non-linear tasks. It is expected that deep learning (DL) should offer superior performance for the important non-proliferation task of predicting explosive device configuration based upon observed optical signature, a task which human experts struggle with. However, supervised machine learning is difficult to apply in this mission space because most recorded signatures are not associated with the corresponding device description, or “truth labels.” This is challenging for NNs, which traditionally require many samples for strong performance. Semi-supervised learning (SSL), low-shot learning (LSL), and uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NNs are emerging approaches that could bridge the mission gaps of few labels and rare samples of importance. NN explainability techniques are important in gaining insight into the inferential feature importance of such a complex model. In this work, SSL, LSL, and UQ are merged into a single framework, a significant technical hurdle not previously demonstrated. Exponential Average Adversarial Training (EAAT) and Pairwise Neural Networks (PNNs) are chosen as the SSL and LSL methods of choice. Permutation feature importance (PFI) for functional data is used to provide explainability via the Variable importance Explainable Elastic Shape Analysis (VEESA) pipeline. A variety of uncertainty quantification approaches are explored: Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), ensemble methods, concrete dropout, and evidential deep learning. Two final approaches, one utilizing ensemble methods and one utilizing evidential learning, are constructed and compared using a well-quantified synthetic 2D dataset along with the DIRSIG Megascene.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ab-Initio molecular dynamics simulations of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 and ternary NaCl-ThCl 4 -UCl 3 molten salts

Molten salt reactor (MSR) with Thorium (Th) fuel cycle has attracted growing attention due to its merits such as safety, low radioactive waste production, and non-proliferation. The design and safe operation of MSR rely on a thorough understanding of the thermophysical properties of molten salts over a wide range of composition and temperature. However, experimental data of Th-based molten salts are limited due to the inherent challenges of dealing with corrosive molten salts and the radioactive nature of actinides. Here, in this work, thermophysical properties including density, heat capacity, thermal expansion coefficient, and mixing energy of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 and ternary NaCl-ThCl 4 -UCl 3 molten salts are explored using ab-initio molecular dynamic simulations (AIMD) with the dDsC dispersion correction. The calculated mixing energy of binary NaCl-ThCl 4 exhibits a minimum close to the eutectic composition. The heat capacity of the mixtures is linearly dependent on the mole fraction of each component. 7-fold and 6-fold coordinated Th complexes are dominant in the mixtures. 8-fold coordinated Th complex increases with ThCl 4 fraction due to the formation of network structures. The average coordination number of Th exhibits a minimum near the eutectic composition. The minimum mixing energy for the ternary mixtures is observed in systems with a composition close to [NaCl] 0.5 [ThCl 4 ] 0.25 [UCl 3 ] 0.25 . The density positively deviates from the ideal solution in mixtures near this composition. These results are important to fill the data and knowledge gap of ThCl 4 molten salts.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Verification and Validation Approach for COMSOL Multiphysics to Support High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR)

Over the last several decades, many reactors have successfully been converted from high enriched uranium (HEU) to low enriched uranium (LEU) fuels in United States in support of its global non-proliferation objectives. Of the reactors slated for conversion, five high-performance research reactors (HPRRs) remain. The high-flux isotope reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is one of the five. Conversion of HFIR requires the qualification of a new fuel. To aid in the conversion process as well as improve safety margins, COMSOL Multiphysics was chosen to support and eventually supplement the steady-state heat-transfer code (SSHTC). In order to use COMSOL as a supplementary tool, i.e. one used for safety basis calculations, the code needs to undergo a verification and validation process. Verification and validation are important processes for the use of any software; however, physics-based solvers have a unique challenge, in that the validation is much more rigorous and its domain is only applicable to the general scope of the problem. This document details the verification and validation of COMOSL for analysis of HFIR. This report is intended for two different users: (1) current and future users of COMSOL for HFIR and (2) for individuals interested in assessing the scope of the validation of COMSOL for HFIR. This report is divided into six sections. The first of which details the process of verification and validation. Section one provides an overview of key concepts from ASME V&V 10, 20, and 40 and how these concepts are used to provide a validation of any multiphysics software. Section two covers the approach needed in order to validate multiphysics software for a given HFIR analysis. Parts three through five split up the key concepts highlighted in section two. The final section provides concluding remarks which demonstrate the scope and limitations of the validation study and how these may be expanded and improved.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

FAST Irradiations, Postirradiation Examinations, and Modeling of U-Mo for Light Water Reactor Applications

Many next generation light water reactor (LWR) concepts, such as mobile small modular reactors, are seeking to use smaller core dimensions than conventional reactor types. Smaller reactor cores require an increase in fissile material to maintain reactivity. For non-proliferation purposes, enrichment increases are limited to less than 20% (high assay low enriched uranium, [HALEU]) and so higher uranium density fuels than UO 2 must be considered. To this end, uranium-molybdenum alloys were tested using the Fission Accelerated Steady-state Test (FAST) approach. The experiment test matrix is focused on identifying the temperature transition between low swelling and high fission gas retention to break away swelling and low fission gas retention. This paper documents the results of irradiation tests and post-irradiation examinations (PIE) including neutron radiography, rodlet profilometry, fission gas collection analysis, and optical metallography. The results of these tests showed that unconstrained U-Mo fuels (solid, Na-bonded rodlets) have a swelling threshold between 400-450°C with minimal fission gas release below this point. Higher temperature solid fuel showed microstructural zoning with small pore networks while lower temperature solid fuels have a uniform microstructure with large pore networks. U-Annular Mo fuels where swelling had some self-constraint imposed upon it, were shown to have much reduced swelling compared to their solid counterparts as well as very low fission gas release for irradiation temperatures up to 500°C. These initial results show that the use of U-Mo in constrained fuel geometries could be used as a high uranium density HALEU fuel for LWRs.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Learning Global Proliferation Expertise Evolution Using AI-Driven Analytics and Public Information

Detecting and anticipating global proliferation expertise and capability evolution from unstructured, noisy, and incomplete public data streams is a highly desired, but extremely challenging task. Here, in this article, we present our pioneering data-driven approach to support the non-proliferation mission to detect and explain the evolution of proliferation expertise and capability development globally from terabytes of publicly available information (PAI), focusing on our knowledge extraction pipeline and descriptive analytics. We first discuss how we fuse nine open-source data streams, including multilingual data, to convert 4 TB of unstructured data to structured knowledge and encode dynamically evolving proliferation expertise representations—content and context graphs. For this, we rely on natural language processing (NLP) and deep learning (DL) models to perform information extraction, topic modeling, and distributed text representation (aka embedding) learning. We then present interactive, usable, and explainable descriptive analytics to refine domain knowledge and present it in a human-understandable form. Finally, we introduce future work avenues that will leverage our dynamic knowledge representations and descriptive analytics to enable predictive and prescriptive inferences to achieve real-time domain understanding and contextual reasoning about global proliferation expertise and capability evolution.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

NA-22 Write for Consortium Efforts

We are asked to look into the improvements for the measurement of Pu of a variety of material types (MT): MT41 (Pu-242, 20 – 60% enriched), MT42 (Pu-242 > 60% enrichment), and MT-82 (Np-237). Many of these are legacy items that were packaged years ago (Fig 1&2), and when the items are re-packaged for long-term storage, they must be re-measured using either NDA (nondestructive analysis methods or radiochemical methods. It is of interest to improve the NDA and radiochemistry to reduce the un-certainty in the measurements, as in the case of larger items (250 g to 2 kg items) the uncertainty in measurements makes it difficult to certify the mass of the material down to the 0.5 g accountability requirement per DOE orders by only doing NDA measurement. It would be of interest to look into methods to improve the detection of these materials, which would not only benefit the weapon manufacturing community, but also has the ability to significantly improve the non-proliferation community.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A Mobile Hot Cell for Conditioning Disused Sealed Radioactive Sources for Storage or Transportation

An innovative Mobile Hot Cell (MHC) has been developed for conditioning Disused Sealed Radioactive Sources (DSRS) category 1 and 2 for storage or transportation. The MHC is designed to provide both Radiological and Biological containment with a maximum capacity of 1000 Ci Co60 or 5000Ci Cs137 source and can be transported via standard cargo containers. This project has been supported through the National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) Offsite Source Recovery Program (OSRP). The project is intended for the international community rather than domestic although domestic use is a possibility. Many countries have significant stockpiles of these devices that are often stored in less-than-optimal circumstances. This necessitates that these devices be addressed expeditiously, and the sources secured. The MHC utilizes robotics, automation, and other non-traditional methods for disassembling, characterizing, and packaging these sources that have reached end of life or are otherwise not needed. These innovative approaches are necessary to facilitate an expedited timeline to efficiently and safely secure these sources in a non-proliferation effort. Conditioning efforts include disassembling the device such as a teletherapy head used for cancer treatment, or blood/research irradiators such that the radioactive sources may be removed safely. The sources are then characterized. Leak checks are performed, dimensions are verified, and serial numbers are confirmed. Upon completion, the sources are typically placed into a Standard Forms Capsule which is seal welded closed. It is leak tested and placed into a Long-Term Storage Shield (LTSS) which can either be secured for storage directly or loaded into an appropriate cask for transportation. Further innovations include multiple deployment scenarios that include a full deployment of MHC components, deployment of the MHC automation internal components to an existing hot cell, deployment of minimally required MHC components and incorporation of sand for shielding, and integration of the MHC for Silo Storage, or Bore Hole Storage efforts. The MHC has evolved from a very specific use case to a “Swiss Army Knife” type of a tool in that it can be readily adapted to a large variety of situations. Innovative approaches such as the use of robotics, Computer Numeric Control (CNC) machining centers, automated welding equipment, HDMI Cameras, and LED lighting are some of the developed technologies incorporated into the MHC design. Shielding is accomplished with a steel walled Base Box which is surrounded by four nesting doll shield shells which when combined limits the external dose rate to 5mr/hr when a 1000 Ci Co60 source is exposed inside.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗