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At least 91 records · Page 5

On Magnitudes and Inferred Yields of the 39 Underground Nuclear Test Explosions at the Novaya Zemlya Test Site

ABSTRACT We review the previously compiled seismic magnitudes for underground nuclear explosions at the Union of the Soviet Socialist Republics Novaya Zemlya Test Site, and analyze these data in the context of published details about individual tests and official Russian reports of annual cumulative explosive energy release at the test site. We derive relationships between teleseismic body wave magnitude mb and explosive yield Y by predicting the yield of each test using mb and minimizing the difference between predicted and reported annual cumulative yield. A linear relationship between mb and logY with a slope of 0.82 provides a good fit to the annual total yield, with a root mean square (rms) misfit of 0.095 logY units. A spectral magnitude relationship based on the explosion source model of Mueller and Murphy (1971) with a single-free-parameter provides a slightly better fit. For the 10 tests for which individual yields can be directly deduced from the official reports, the rms misfit of reported yields is less than 0.1 logY units or about 25%. More complex relationships that differentiate between the northern and southern test areas, or take account of variations in the scaled depth of burial, do not provide substantially better fits to the reported yields.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

The Biggest Fool Thing

This presentation provides an overview of Nuclear Explosives Safety for a W/Q/E Division WebeX. It includes an overview of how detonators and high explosives are considered as part of Nuclear Explosives Safety. Several accidents involving High Explosives are also discussed. This presentation was adapted from LA-CP-16-20438.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

A Review of Global Radioxenon Background Research and Issues

Among the most important problems for the world-wide nuclear explosion monitoring is the interference of naturally occurring and man-made radionuclides. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) frequently detects these interferences using sensitive radionuclide measurement equipment. We commonly refer to the presence of radionuclides that are relevant to the CTBT but do not originate from a nuclear explosion as “background”. Backgrounds are highest near the sources but are known to have regional and global effects on the IMS. This review paper summarizes much of the relevant work in the area of background and discusses issues of interest for nuclear explosion detection.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects

The complex problem of protecting the Earth from the possibility of a catastrophic impact by a hazardous near-Earth object (NEO) has been recently reassessed in [1]. In a letter on NEOs from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to the U.S. Senate and Congress in 2010, the White House OSTP strongly recommended that NASA take the lead in conducting research activities for NEO detection, characterization, and deflection technologies. Furthermore, President Obama's new National Space Policy specifically directs NASA to "pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize NEOs to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet." The Planetary Defense Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council also recommended that the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) begin efforts to investigate asteroid deflection techniques. With national interest growing in the United States, the NEO threat detection and mitigation problem was recently identified as one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. An innovative solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge problem was developed through a NIAC Phase I study (9/16/11 - 9/15/12), and it will be further investigated for a NIAC Phase II study (9/10/12 - 9/9/14). Various NEO deflection technologies, including nuclear explosions, kinetic impactors, and slow-pull gravity tractors, have been proposed and examined during the past two decades. Still, there is no consensus on how to reliably deflect or disrupt hazardous NEOs in a timely manner. It is expected that the most probable mission scenarios will have a mission lead time much shorter than 10 years, so the use of nuclear explosives becomes the most feasible method for planetary defense. Direct intercept missions with a short warning time will result in arrival closing velocities of 10-30 kilometers per second with respect to the target asteroid. Given such a large arrival delta V requirement, a rendezvous mission to the target asteroid is infeasible with existing launch vehicles. Furthermore, state-of-the-art penetrating subsurface nuclear explosion technology limits the penetrator's impact velocity to less than approximately 300 meters per second because higher impact velocities prematurely destroy the nuclear fuzing mechanisms. Therefore, significant advances in hypervelocity nuclear interceptor/ penetrator technology must be achieved to enable a last-minute nuclear disruption mission with intercept velocities as high as 30 kilometers per second. Consequently, a HAIV (Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle) mission architecture (Figure 1.1), which blends a hypervelocity kinetic impactor with a subsurface nuclear explosion for optimal fragmentation and dispersion of hazardous NEOs, has been developed through a Phase I study, and it will be further developed and validated through a Phase II study.

Asteroid↗

Dense Seismic Array Study of a Legacy Underground Nuclear Test at the Nevada National Security Site

The complex postdetonation geologic structures that form after an underground nuclear explosion are difficult to constrain because increased heterogeneity around the damage zone affects seismic waves that propagate through the explosion site. Generally, a vertical rubble-filled structure known as a chimney is formed after an underground nuclear explosion that is composed of debris that falls into the subsurface cavity generated by the explosion. Compared with chimneys that collapse fully, leaving a surface crater, partially collapsed chimneys can have remnant subsurface cavities left in place above collapsed rubble. The 1964 nuclear test HADDOCK, conducted at the Nevada test site (now the Nevada National Security Site), formed a partially collapsed chimney with no surface crater. Understanding the subsurface structure of these features has significant national security applications, such as aiding the study of suspected underground nuclear explosions under a treaty verification. In this study, we investigated the subsurface architecture of the HADDOCK legacy nuclear test using hybrid 2D–3D active source seismic reflection and refraction data. The seismic data were acquired using 275 survey shots from the Seismic Hammer (a 13,000 kg weight drop) and 65 survey shots from a smaller accelerated weight drop, both recorded by ~1000 three-component 5 Hz geophones. First-arrival, P-wave tomographic modeling shows a low-velocity anomaly at ~200 m depth, likely an air-filled cavity caused by partial collapse of the rock column into the temporary postdetonation cavity. A high-velocity anomaly between 20 and 60 m depth represents spall-related compaction of the shallow alluvium. Hints of low velocities are also present near the burial depth (~364 m). The reflection seismic data show a prominent subhorizontal reflector at ~300 m depth, a short-curved reflector at ~200 m, and a high-amplitude reflector at ~50 m depth. Comparisons of the reflection sections to synthetic data and borehole stratigraphy suggest that these features correspond to the alluvium–tuff contact, the partial collapse cavity, and the spalled layer, respectively.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, and Explosives (CBRNE) Sensing XXI

This volume contains 12 sessions, 28 papers and 26 presentations on the following topics: Photonic Integrated Circuits and Plasmonic Sensing; Advancs in CBE Signature Modeling and Sensor Algorithms I; Standoff Sensing of CBRNE Hazards I; Standoff Sensing of CBRNE Hazards II; Advances in CBE Signature Modeling and Sensor Algorithms II; Biological Hazard Sensing; Chemical Hazard Sensing; Joint Session with Conferences 11390 and 11416: Spectroscopy for CBRNE Detection and Warning; Radiological and Nuclear Sensing; Explosive Material Sensing; Poster Session.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Iron-rich microstructure records of high temperature multi-component silicate melt behavior in nuclear fallout

Above-ground nuclear explosions that interact with the surface of the earth entrain materials from the surrounding environment, influencing the resulting physical and chemical evolution of the fireball, which can affect the final chemical phase and mobility of hazardous radionuclides that are dispersed in the environment as fallout particles. The interaction of iron with a nuclear explosion is of specific interest due to the potential for iron to act as a redox buffer and because of the likelihood of significant masses of metals to be present in urban environments. We investigated fallout from a historic surface interacting nuclear explosion conducted on a steel tower and report the discovery of widespread and diverse iron-rich micro-structures preserved within the samples, including crystalline dendrites and micron-scale iron-rich spheres with liquid immiscibility textures. We assert these micro-structures reflect local redox conditions and cooling rates and can inform interpretation of high temperature events, enabling new insights into fireball condensation physics and chemistry when metals from the local environment (i.e. structural steel) are vaporized or entrained. Finally, these observations also significantly expand the availability of silicate immiscibility datasets applicable to rapidly quenched systems such as meteorite impact melt glass.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Discrimination of Seismic Events (2006–2020) in North Korea Using P/Lg Amplitude Ratios from Regional Stations and a Bivariate Discriminant Function

Two events of magnitude (m b ) 3.6–3.8 occurred in southern North Korea (NK) on 27 June 2019 and 11 May 2020. Although these events were located ~330–400 km from the known nuclear test site, the fact that they occurred within the territory of NK, a country with a recent history of underground nuclear tests, made them events of interest for the monitoring community. In this work, we used P/Lg ratios from regional stations to categorize seismic events that occurred in NK from 2006 to May 2020, including these two recent events, the six declared NK nuclear tests, and the cavity collapse and triggered earthquakes that followed the 3 September 2017 nuclear explosion. We were able to separate the cavity collapse from the population of nuclear explosions. However, based on P/Lg ratios, the distinction between the earthquakes and the cavity collapse is ambiguous. The performed discriminant analyses suggest that combining Pg/Lg and Pn/Lg ratios results in improved discriminant power compared with any of the ratio types alone. We used the two ratio types jointly in a quadratic discriminant function and successfully classified the six declared nuclear tests and the triggered earthquakes that followed the September 2017 explosion. Our analyses also confirm that the recent southern events of June 2019 and May 2020 are both tectonic earthquakes that occurred naturally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Report for Department of State (DoS) V-Fund Project "Tying Moment Tensor Solutions to Explosive Yield"

The goal of this study was to use U.S. nuclear explosions with known source parameters (yield, depth, shot point material and/or parameters) to determine moment-derived yield estimates. This work has been accomplished by performing full moment tensor solutions using regional network data from the LLNL network, and other regional broadband stations. As part of this study, we have calculated solutions for 130 U.S. nuclear explosions and 12 additional chemical explosions. We then take several approaches to using moment tensors to estimate yield, considering both the full and isotropic moment tensors, doing straight regression analysis on the whole dataset, then successively refining the calibration with additional information about material and overburden. We have also tried a completely new approach of using the seismic moment to help estimate the radiated seismic energy and tying this to yield through a seismic efficiency. Results appear to be promising, but more work might be required to make this more useful in an operational sense.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High Throughput Argon-37 Field System

We report Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has developed a unique fieldable 37 Ar measurement system designed to measure 37 Ar activity concentrations from soil gas samples to detect above ground and underground nuclear explosions. The Argon-37 Field System is modular in design to accommodate both chemical processing and nuclear detection. The system can be packed into shipping crates and shipped to a location near where the sampling is taking place. The system can process six 2-m 3 whole-air samples in 24 hours and can measure the 37 Ar activity in each of the samples using six proportional counters. The proportional counters, designed and built at PNNL, are surrounded with both active and passive shielding to reduce background and can achieve a minimum detection concentration of 10 mBq/m 3 of 37 Ar in whole-air equivalent. The Argon-37 Field System has undergone extensive testing against rigorous requirements to assure the system meets the needs of the noble gas nuclear explosion monitoring community.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Joint Bayesian Inference for Near-Surface Explosion Yield and Height-of-Burst

Forensic capabilities to understand chemical and nuclear explosions are greatly aided by an accurate estimate of explosive yield with uncertainty. The relationship between explosive size and geophysical observations of seismic, acoustic, and optical waves can be exploited to provide an estimate of yield. Any near-surface yield estimate is complicated by the surface interaction, so an estimate for the explosion height-of-burst is necessarily included in the relationship. Additionally, the relationship dictates a trade-off between estimates of yield and height-of-burst. Fortunately, the surface interaction for each type of observation is different, which breaks the trade-off, and the inclusion of height-of-burst with multiple data types improves yield estimation. We define simple parametric forward models to relate seismoäcoustoöptic observations from a data set of known explosive yields and height-of-bursts. The parameters of the models and a prediction for the yield and height-of-burst of a new event can then be estimated given new observations via Bayesian inference. We report posterior distribution estimates of the parametric models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling technique. These models are then used to predict the yield and height-of-burst of SUGAR, a historical near-surface nuclear explosion, using its reported historical observations. The reported yield of 1.2 ktonne Trinitrotoluene (TNT)-equivalent (Department of Energy, 2015) is within the estimated posterior. Yield uncertainty can be estimated from the spread of the posterior, which is between 0.9 and 2.1 ktonne TNT-equivalent. The posterior for height-of-burst has a wider range between 10 m below and 8 m above ground that includes the true height-of-burst of 1 m.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating Explosion Yields Using Moment Tensor Solutions and Seismic Moment

We report seismic moment, a measurable and well-understood quantity of seismic sources, is used to estimate the yield of explosions. Application of such a method in the past, as in the manner of m b -derived yields, has been complicated by the effect of variations in the explosion working point, depth, and secondary source effects (such as spalling and tectonic release) on the observed moment. We start using the full (six-element) moment tensor solution, which can capture the relevant source physics and, at least in theory, better isolate the primary explosion source. The moment-to-yield ratio is then estimated using an explosion source model which, provided with emplacement conditions, can relate the two parameters. We discuss the major sources of uncertainty associated with the method, and calibrate it with chemical and nuclear explosions at the Nevada National Security Site. We then apply the method to published moment tensor solutions for the six declared North Korean nuclear explosions that occurred between 2006 and 2017. The results are mostly consistent with other yield estimates made using a variety of high-frequency methods. This technique is a new approach to estimating explosive yield and simple to implement, as much of the complexity is captured by the source models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling the use of mobile modular gas samplers in near-field detection

The Wireless Independent Noble Gas Sampler (WINGS) is a mobile, modular gas sampling system designed for use in low infrastructure environments. In the case of a suspected underground nuclear explosion (UNE), WINGS units could be deployed to detect noble gases emanating from the suspected explosion site or identify gases originating from another source entering the local area from offsite. In conclusion, this work uses the atmospheric transport modeling tool inline WRF-HYSPLIT to test the effectiveness of WINGS units around a suspected UNE site as a function of sampler density and distance from the emission point of gases from a UNE.

Air sampling↗

Explosive Byproduct Gas Transport Through Sorptive Geomedia

Current underground nuclear explosion (UNE) detection strategies rely heavily on atmospheric noble gas sampling of radioxenon. However, discriminating nuclear weapons testing programs from civilian sources is difficult due to highly variable atmospheric radioxenon backgrounds and processes affecting subsurface transport of parent radionuclides. Here, we aim to study the transport of gases produced by subsurface explosions as novel stable signatures for underground nuclear explosion (UNE) monitoring. These gases may be produced in large quantities with distinct molecular ratios, which will be impacted by subsurface transport processes. To demonstrate how ratios of gases produced by explosions can change during transport in geomaterials, we conducted laboratory benchtop experiments on the transport of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and hydrogen (H 2 ) gases through variably saturated zeolitic tuff, which is abundant at the historic US testing site. We observed that zeolitic tuff sorbs substantial quantities of CO 2 while allowing H 2 to transport more freely, leading to changes in the molecular ratios of the two gases along the transport pathway. Gas uptake in the dry zeolitic tuff core was 72.3% for CO 2 , compared with 53.4% for xenon and 7.6% for H 2 . The presence of 20% water saturation disrupted the CO 2 sorption process, though to a lesser extent than observed for noble gases, with a 36.7% drop in xenon sorption compared with a 21.9% drop for CO 2 . These results represent the first observations of zeolite sorption altering explosive gas ratios during transport through geomedia relevant to nuclear proliferation monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Science Plan

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) series is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve U.S. arms control and nuclear nonproliferation verification and monitoring capabilities. The findings from the SPE will advance the United States’ nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to detection, discrimination and determination of yields associated with small nuclear explosions that can be lost amid the noisy seismo-acoustic background from other sources. The data generated from the SPE, a series of well-designed and recorded chemical explosions, will contribute to the development and validation of first-principles explosive source generated seismo-acoustic modeling codes. These codes will then facilitate the update of semi-empirical methods, currently based on historic test site data, such that key explosion observables can be reproduced, thus improving confidence in nuclear test monitoring in new areas and/or under novel emplacement conditions. The overall SPE project is comprised of both the development of the new explosion simulation codes and the chemical explosion test series. The chemical explosion test series will generate the empirical data required to both develop and validate the new simulation codes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Vision 0.3.2 Users Guide: Revision 0

Vision is a research software application developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that incorporates the scientific and operational expertise for reviewing data from treaty monitoring radionuclide stations. These stations are part of a worldwide network to monitor for nuclear explosions, and the data they produce are critical to make the determination of whether a sample is from a nuclear explosion or some other source (i.e., nuclear reactor or medical isotope production facility). Stations deliver their measurements and system status to the International Monitoring System (IMS), which forwards it via email to all subscribers. Vision provides tools for viewing and analyzing these stations’ state of health data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗